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The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
Welcome to today’s racing from Oaklawn Park on Monday, February 16, 2026. Today features a mix of competitive claiming events, starter allowances, and is headlined by the Ozark Stakes in Race 9. We have full fields across the board. A few notable scratches have opened up opportunities in several races, changing the complexion of the pace scenarios.
Weather and Track Conditions
The weather in Hot Springs, Arkansas today is fantastic for winter racing. Forecasts project high temperatures reaching 61 degrees with sunny skies and a zero percent chance of rain. Winds will be mild out of the south at around 7 mph. Because of these optimal conditions, expect the main dirt surface to be fast. Recent track bias data for the Oaklawn meet suggests that early speed and pressers have a distinct advantage in the six-furlong sprints, with middle to outside post positions offering the best trips. In the route races at one mile, the rail and inside posts have been highly effective for early speed types. For the longer 1 1/16 mile routes, pressers drawn on the outside have shown strong win percentages, likely due to the ability to stay out of kickback and launch a clear run.
Race 1 Summary
With River Wind scratched, the pace scenario changes slightly. Wicked One and Quick to Charm are expected to contest the early lead. Expect a moderate to fast pace as the riders attempt to secure position before the turn in this six-furlong dash. Love Supreme draws a favorable middle post and gets the services of Luis Saez for trainer Steve Asmussen. She has the pedigree to excel in this maiden special weight event. Wicked One, also trained by Asmussen, has shown sharp morning workouts and will be pushing the pace early. Quick to Charm brings the strong Mark Casse and Francisco Arrieta connection. She has tactical speed and can stalk the pace if the early fractions get too hot. Empath is a three-year-old filly facing older mares but gets a weight break at 118 pounds. She could pick up the pieces late if the leaders tire.
Race 2 Summary
A full field of maiden claimers going one mile. Relevate and News Too Serious should flash early speed. The inside posts are favorable at this distance, giving Relevate a tactical edge going into the first turn. McKinzie’s Glory looks formidable for trainer Kenny McPeek. She drops into the claiming ranks and should relish the one-mile distance. Belvedere Club has been facing tougher competition and gets class relief today, making her a dangerous closing threat. With Kindness draws the outside but has the tactical speed to clear the pack. David Fawkes is a capable trainer placing her perfectly for a minor award. Relevate has the rail advantage and could take them wire-to-wire if left alone. Urluckyurcute carries an incredibly light 110 pounds with the bug boy. If she breaks cleanly, that weight advantage could carry her into the exotics at a massive price.
Race 3 Summary
This six-furlong claiming sprint features a ton of early speed. Laura Branigan, Georgia On E’smind, and Jet Pack all want the lead. This sets up perfectly for a presser or closer sitting mid-pack. Dark Fury gets the services of Luis Saez for Norm Casse. She has a versatile running style that should allow her to sit just behind the scorching early pace and pounce in the stretch. Jet Pack draws inside and will be sent early by Rafael Bejarano, making her the primary speed target. Balls in Ur Court has consistent speed figures and fits well at this condition. She will need to avoid getting caught four-wide on the turn but has the talent to hit the board. Sorry Not Sorry is an intriguing option. She has historically run well off a moderate layoff and could come flying late as the frontrunners hit the wall.
Race 4 Summary
Going 1 1/16 miles, this starter allowance lacks a dedicated frontrunner with the scratch of Big Vince. Sweetalkingbourbon and Papa Yo might find themselves inheriting the lead by default in a paceless race. Sweetalkingbourbon is a consistent gelding trained by Cherie DeVaux. With Luis Saez aboard, expect him to be placed prominently from the start. Systemic Change has back class and draws the rail for Mike Maker. Ramon Vazquez will save all the ground and look for room turning for home. Carolo Rapido has excellent closing speed and will benefit if anyone decides to push the pace early. He has hit the board in similar spots throughout his career. Empire Builder is a grizzled veteran who knows how to find the winner’s circle. He is perfectly drawn on the outside, which bias data suggests is favorable at this distance.
Race 5 Summary
This state-bred maiden claiming sprint features many unproven runners. Cool Under Fire and Dawson James have shown the most early zip in their past performances. Expect a contentious and potentially sloppy pace. Huckaby gets the notable jockey upgrade to Luis Saez for the Ron Moquett barn. The drop into claiming company should be exactly what this three-year-old needs to graduate. Cool Under Fire has valuable race experience and gets a prominent jockey in Ramon Vazquez. Cutting Class has been knocking on the door at this level and draws a great outside post. Francisco Arrieta knows how to win these restricted races. Bali Deen carries only 110 pounds and has flashed brief speed before fading in previous starts. The light weight might help him carry that speed an extra furlong today.
Race 6 Summary
Several scratches in this 1 1/16 mile claiming event change the complexion. Eldon’s Prince and Treble Clef should inherit the early lead. The pace should be honest but not overwhelming. Ga Mo Tak ships in for the powerful Brad Cox stable with Cristian Torres in the irons. Cox excels at placing his horses at the right level, and this looks like a winning spot. Treble Clef has Luis Saez and the tactical speed to control the race from the outside. Cobblestone Bridge draws the rail for Michael Stidham. He is a one-run closer who needs a clean trip but has the highest ceiling in this field if the pace collapses. Jacks Spring Break carries a light 113 pounds and could sneak into the superfecta at a huge price if he can save ground along the rail.
Race 7 Summary
This state-bred sprint is loaded with speed. Choctaw Zip, Great Barrier, and Azteca Warrior will all be gunning for the front. Expect a very fast early pace that sets up the closers. Natorade is drawn perfectly on the outside for trainer Thomas Van Berg. He can sit off the speed duel and make one massive run in the stretch. Strato has tactical speed and the services of Keith Asmussen. He is reliable and rarely runs a bad race at this level. Azteca Warrior has dangerous early speed but will have to work hard to cross over from post six. If he clears easily, he could be tough to catch. King Peanut gets a massive weight allowance, carrying only 113 pounds. He is a true longshot but the weight break in a sprint is always a dangerous angle.
Race 8 Summary
Going one mile for a 75k claiming tag, the pace should be moderate. The Warden and Arthur Jr are the main speed threats. The inside posts have a strong advantage here, which benefits the early leaders. Barb ships in for Mike Maker and gets Luis Saez. Maker is excellent at improving horses off the claim, and this gelding has the class to dominate this field. The Warden ships in from California for Phil D’Amato. He has immense talent and the tactical speed to secure a perfect trip from post two. Arthur Jr is trained by Tom Amoss and ridden by Rafael Bejarano. He is a hard-knocking horse who always gives an honest effort and loves the Oaklawn surface. Master Mule adds blinkers today, which could sharpen his early speed. If he gets ignored on the tote board, he is worth a look in the exotics.
Race 9 Summary
The feature event of the day, the Ozark Stakes, will feature a blazing pace. Dirty Rich, Tiz Mary’s Comet, and Gnome all have rocket-like early speed. The stretch run will be a test of endurance. Oscar’s Hope is my top value play of the day. Trained by Tom Amoss, he carries the top weight of 124 pounds but has proven stakes experience and the grit to win a stretch duel. Ewing represents the powerful Mark Casse barn and has been training brilliantly for this spot. Dirty Rich draws the rail and will have to be sent hard by Ramon Vazquez to avoid getting shuffled back. He has undeniable talent but faces a tough trip. Chad Allan is a massive price on the morning line but has shown flashes of brilliance. If the track is playing to outside closers, he could blow up the tote board.
Race 10 Summary
A high-level allowance route with several key scratches. Expect the Best and Faust should control the early fractions. The pace will likely be slow, favoring horses near the front. Faust is a highly regarded runner from the Steve Asmussen stable. With the scratch of Gun Runner Charlie, he becomes the clear horse to beat. Expect the Best has home-field advantage and tactical speed to stay out of trouble. Dance Some Mo is an eight-year-old veteran who still has plenty of class. He will be closing late and is a must-use underneath in exotic wagers. Divine Justice carries a very light 115 pounds and breaks from the outside. If he can secure a stalking trip without losing too much ground, he can hit the board at a big price.
Race 11 Summary
The nightcap is a chaotic state-bred maiden claiming sprint. Conway, Go Go Ro Ro, and Butch all have shown early speed. Expect a contested pace that falls apart late. Conway is the class of the field for Ron Moquett. He has been facing much tougher maiden special weight company and should appreciate the massive drop in class. Polar Wolf is an intriguing first-time starter for John Ortiz, who excels with debut runners at this track. Go Go Ro Ro has experience and Ramon Vazquez in the saddle. He is a safe bet to hit the board given the weakness of the field. Free of Frost carries the bug weight at 117 pounds and has a pedigree that suggests he wants to sprint. He could be the one flying late at a huge price to close out the Pick 5.
