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The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

Oaklawn Park presents a stellar Super Bowl Sunday card highlighted by the $150,000 King Cotton Stakes. The 10-race program features competitive fields, blending allowance-quality runners with hard-knocking claimers. The King Cotton serves as the marquee event, bringing together some of the circuit’s top sprinters, including the formidable Roll On Big Joe, who looks to cement his status as a division leader. The Scratch Watch indicators suggest several runners are returning from recent setbacks or strategic withdrawals. Notably, Durante in the King Cotton was scratched by his trainer in early January and resurfaces here, potentially fresh and ready to fire. Similarly, Sneaky Feet in Race 2 returns after a vet scratch last month, a factor bettors should weigh carefully during the post parade.

Weather and Track Conditions

After a bout of winter weather earlier in the week, conditions have stabilized in Hot Springs. The forecast calls for partly cloudy skies with a high near 54 degrees. The main track has been playing fast and fair following the maintenance required by the recent freeze.

Track Bias Assessment

The Oaklawn surface has shown a slight versatility in recent days. While speed is always dangerous here, especially in 6-furlong sprints, the rail has been a golden path for several winners this week. However, the track is not strictly a front-runner’s paradise; closers like Tejano Twist have found success when the pace is hot. Watch the early races closely. If the inside speed is holding, upgrade horses drawing posts 1 through 4. If runners are winning from the middle of the track, the bias may be neutralizing.

Race 1 Analysis

The pace in this opener should be honest but not scorching. Southfork and Double Down Magic possess early foot, but Bolt’s Treasure has the tactical speed to sit just off the leaders. Good News Rocket may also show more initiative fresh off the layoff.

Key Contenders: Bolt’s Treasure (11), Good News Rocket (9) Secondary Choices: Personal Jet (6), Amentum (14) Longshots: Southfork (1)

Race 2 Analysis

Brilliant Man has shown speed in the past and, with blinkers coming off, may be more relaxed but still forwardly placed. Promissione and Woodspoint will likely push the tempo early. Brilliant Man is the one to beat with the equipment change, while Tyler’s Turn returns to his preferred dirt surface.

Key Contenders: Brilliant Man (7), Tyler’s Turn (12) Secondary Choices: Stoke the Fire (13), Missing Rocks (1) Longshots: Sneaky Feet (14)

Race 3 Analysis

She’s So Coal has speed but cuts back from a two-turn attempt. Tiz in Sight and Big Red Machine also have gas. Expect a contested pace which could set up well for a stalker, but She’s So Coal might just be faster than these. Her class edge and the cutback angle make her formidable.

Key Contenders: She’s So Coal (8), Big Red Machine (7) Secondary Choices: Tiz in Sight (3) Longshots: Amazing Amanda (9)

Race 4 Analysis

Time for Music and Clocker Special project to be the primary speed. Gaming Wizard should enjoy a ground-saving trip from the rail. Time for Music drops out of stakes company into a realistic allowance spot and could be gone if he clears early.

Key Contenders: Time for Music (7), Honey’s to Blame (6) Secondary Choices: Our Magical Moon (8) Longshots: Gaming Wizard (1)

Race 5 Analysis

Promises to Dance is very fast and should vie for the lead with Miss Arlington. This 6-furlong sprint will likely be run at a rapid clip. Promises to Dance drops in class and keeps Ricardo Santana Jr. aboard, signaling intent. Miss Arlington is dangerous second off the layoff.

Key Contenders: Promises to Dance (6), Miss Arlington (4) Secondary Choices: Demi (12) Longshots: Lite It Up Louie (7)

Race 6 Analysis

Rockin Robin and Dare Greatly look to be the main speed influences. Joke Maker stretches out and could also be forwardly placed. Rockin Robin exits a key race against high-quality company and looks like the day’s most likely winner outside of the stakes.

Key Contenders: Rockin Robin (4), Dare Greatly (1) Secondary Choices: Joke Maker (5) Longshots: Cognizant (2)

Race 7 Analysis

Hern has tactical speed, as does Uncle Caesar. Pappy’s Revenge might have to send from the outside. Hern ran a career-best figure finishing second off the bench last time and finds a winnable spot. Uncle Caesar is a consistent threat from the Brad Cox barn.

Key Contenders: Hern (5), Uncle Caesar (7) Secondary Choices: Black Powder (1) Longshots: Slip Mahoney (11)

Race 8 Analysis – King Cotton Stakes

Roll On Big Joe has natural speed but doesn’t need the lead. Frost Free and Durante are very fast and will likely ensure a hot pace. Wendelssohn will stalk, while Tejano Twist will be far back early. Roll On Big Joe is the class of the field, but Wendelssohn offers value returning to his preferred distance.

Key Contenders: Roll On Big Joe (5), Wendelssohn (3) Secondary Choices: Tejano Twist (6), Bourbon Bash (4) Longshots: Durante (9)

Race 9 Analysis

R Pretty Kitty and Ginger Zip have speed. You’ll Be Back will likely stalk from mid-pack. You’ll Be Back ran well off the layoff and should move forward here. Untamed Moment earned a strong figure breaking her maiden and fits well despite the class hike.

Key Contenders: You’ll Be Back (8), Untamed Moment (7) Secondary Choices: Filly Crystal (12) Longshots: One Way Or Another (3)

Race 10 Analysis

Secret Slew and Miss Chocolatte have speed. In a maiden race for state-breds, expect a chaotic scramble early. Secret Slew exits the same key race as the Race 3 favorite and is the one to beat if she repeats that effort.

Key Contenders: Secret Slew (5), Miss Chocolatte (12) Secondary Choices: Paroli (10) Longshots: Praise Paulina (1)