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The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
The Friday evening card at Sam Houston Race Park features a nine-race program starting at 06:30PM. The schedule includes competitive allowance races and high-value maiden special weights. Feature events include the seventh race allowance at a mile on the dirt and a ratings handicap for turf specialists in the second race. Purses remain strong for the winter meet with several races offering over $30,000 in total prize money. Horsemen from across the region are well-represented with deep fields in the later claiming and allowance optional claiming events.
Weather and Track Conditions
The forecast for Houston indicates sunny skies with a high temperature of 76°F and a low of 49°F. Winds are expected from the west at 9 mph with no precipitation in the forecast. These conditions point to a fast track on the main dirt surface and firm conditions for the races carded on the turf. Humidity levels are low at 37% which should provide a consistent racing surface throughout the evening program.
Track Bias
Based on recent trends at Sam Houston, the dirt surface has favored horses with tactical speed who can secure positions near the rail or just off the lead. In sprint distances, being within three lengths of the lead at the quarter pole is often critical. For the turf course, the rail setting at 18 feet usually allows for fair running, though late closers often find success moving to the outside in the final furlong. With the firm turf expected today, look for horses with strong turn of foot rather than those relying on a soft ground grind.
Race-by-Race Summary
1st Race
6 Furlongs Dirt – Allowance
Pace Analysis
The opening sprint features three-year-olds with early speed. Stretch and Compressed are expected to vie for the early lead, while Drewtonian may benefit from a stalking trip.
Key Contenders
Stretch is the primary runner after showing consistent form and the early speed required to clear the field.
Secondary Choices
The Asmussen entry of Compressed and Awesome Name offers a strong challenge, with Compressed likely to improve in his second start of the year.
Longshots
Essential Time could provide value if the pace collapses, relying on a clean break to stay competitive.
2nd Race
1 Mile Turf – Ratings Handicap
Pace Analysis
Big Bernie and Ocelot are the likely pace setters. Moderate fractions should favor those within striking distance of the front on the firm turf.
Key Contenders
Ocelot stands out due to recent speed figures and an affinity for the Houston turf. Quality Chic is a high-level contender with a strong closing kick.
Secondary Choices
Excaping the Blues and Underdressed are solid options. Underdressed drops in class and Excaping the Blues has a high win percentage at this distance.
Longshots
Hunt Master is a potential value play if he can replicate his best efforts on firm turf.
3rd Race
5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt – Maiden Special Weight
Pace Analysis
Wadi Al Kouf and Mucafaah are the likely leaders. Clockin In will likely stay close from a middle post.
Key Contenders
Mucafaah is a standout after showing talent in morning works. Wadi Al Kouf is the primary stablemate rival who may try to lead gate-to-wire.
Secondary Choices
Clockin In and Game Time Decision have the experience edge and should appreciate the 5 1/2 furlong distance.
Longshots
Docket could surprise if the favorites engage in a speed duel, potentially benefitting from a ground-saving rail trip.
4th Race
7 Furlongs Dirt – Ratings Optional Claiming
Pace Analysis
Plenty of early speed is expected from Carbon Stryker and Red Summerbird. The extended sprint distance will test front-end stamina.
Key Contenders
Worth Looking has an ideal running style for this distance and should benefit from the drop in class. Algebra is a veteran with a high ceiling at this track.
Secondary Choices
Red Summerbird is a speed threat who could wire the field if unchallenged. Derby Date retains enough class to be competitive at this level.
Longshots
Hay Scooby Doo could hit the board if the pace is exceptionally fast and he stays closer to the lead than usual.
5th Race
1 1/16 Miles Turf – Maiden Special Weight
Pace Analysis
The route often starts slowly. Baker Hayfield and Zorro D’ Oro should be forwardly placed, with Renton tracking just behind.
Key Contenders
Baker Hayfield comes in with strong form following a runner-up finish. Renton should appreciate the firm turf conditions.
Secondary Choices
Amentum and Zorro D’ Oro are logical inclusions. Amentum has been consistent, while Zorro D’ Oro may improve with the surface change.
Longshots
Friday Night Fever showed recent improvement and could provide a payout if he continues his upward trajectory.
6th Race
7 Furlongs Dirt – Ratings Optional Claiming
Pace Analysis
A large field suggests a chaotic pace. Bringonthebubbly and Seriously Sassy are the main speed, with Sunny San Leon tracking.
Key Contenders
Sunny San Leon has been in great form and represents a strong win candidate. Seriously Sassy is a consistent factor at this level.
Secondary Choices
Waving Bye and Bringonthebubbly are capable on their best days. Bringonthebubbly is dangerous if left alone on the lead.
Longshots
Amadora’s Empire is a younger filly who has shown enough talent to warrant a look at higher odds.
7th Race
1 Mile Dirt – Allowance
Pace Analysis
First Player and Schifty’s Haloid are the speed of the race. The brisk pace should favor those with a stalking style like C’Mon Chaos.
Key Contenders
First Player is the favorite with high speed figures and consistent finishes. Schifty’s Haloid is the main danger at this distance.
Secondary Choices
Bourbon Curiosity and Start Mo Up provide depth. Start Mo Up has been training well and should be closing ground late.
Longshots
Justice Department is a wildcard who has the class to contend if he returns to his best form.
8th Race
1 1/16 Miles Turf – Maiden Claiming
Pace Analysis
Remittance and Guitar Man are expected to show early interest. Young Pope should be well-placed using his tactical speed.
Key Contenders
Remittance is a standout based on recent form. Young Pope has the experience to break through in this maiden claiming spot.
Secondary Choices
Thousand Chances and Red Dirt Alley are logical contenders. Red Dirt Alley has turf pedigree and could improve on the surface.
Longshots
Bayousumcrawfish has shown enough in morning works to suggest he can compete if the favorites falter.
9th Race
6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt – Allowance Optional Claiming
Pace Analysis
Quick Rae AA and WMA Grand Finale are the likely pace influences in this Arabian sprint. Honey Proof will look to close late.
Key Contenders
WMA Grand Finale is a strong contender with proven success at the distance. AA Sweet Victory also carries high expectations.
Secondary Choices
Quick Rae AA and Like Moulin Rouge are veteran runners. Quick Rae AA has the speed to lead for a long time.
Longshots
AA Take A Chance could provide a late surprise if the pace is overly aggressive.
Jockey and Trainer Notes
The jockey standings are led by Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez, Floyd Wethey Jr., and Stewart Elliott. Valdez-Jiminez is particularly effective on the turf, while Elliott remains the primary choice for the Asmussen stable. Steven M. Asmussen continues to lead the trainer standings, showing dominance across all categories. Karen E. Jacks maintains an impressive win percentage, and Austin Gustafson has shown success with both favorites and longshots.
