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Santa Anita Park presents a compelling nine-race card on Saturday, January 31, 2026, highlighted by two graded stakes events with significant implications for the older horse division. The Grade 2 San Pasqual Stakes serves as a critical stepping stone toward the prestigious Santa Anita Handicap, while the Grade 3 Megahertz Stakes features a strong field of fillies and mares testing the one-mile turf distance. The card includes three maiden special weight events showcasing juveniles from top connections, along with competitive claiming and allowance races across varied class levels and surfaces.
The meet continues to showcase the dominance of jockey Juan Hernandez, who maintains elite form with a 24 percent win rate and multiple stakes victories through January 24. The trainer standings feature Doug O’Neill leading with a 20 percent strike rate, followed closely by Mark Glatt. Bob Baffert sends out multiple high-profile runners, including a trio in the sixth race maiden sprint and the intriguing Cornucopian, who makes his second attempt at Race 8 after a dramatic paddock scratch from the Malibu Stakes.
Weather and Track Conditions
Southern California delivers ideal racing conditions for Saturday’s program. The forecast calls for sunny skies with temperatures reaching a high of 85 degrees Fahrenheit and an overnight low of 56 degrees. Zero precipitation is expected, ensuring fast conditions on the main dirt track and firm footing across both turf courses. The favorable weather represents significant improvement from early January, when excessive rainfall forced multiple race day cancellations.
The main track has demonstrated consistent speed-favoring tendencies throughout the current meet, while turf courses provide relatively fair racing despite a slight disadvantage for deep closers at the one-mile trip. The downhill turf course presents unique demands on juvenile fillies, rewarding those who break alertly and maintain good position through the descent.
Post Position and Track Bias Analysis
Santa Anita’s configuration creates distinct advantages that sophisticated handicappers must incorporate into their analysis. On the main dirt track, early speed dominates significantly. Statistical analysis reveals that horses racing on or within one length of the early lead capture 56 to 58 percent of sprint races. This speed bias proves particularly pronounced in six-furlong and 6.5-furlong events.
Post position data demonstrates that inside posts one through three account for approximately 50 percent of all sprint victories. The rail position provides distinct path-saving benefits, though horses lacking sufficient early speed to secure position face compromised trips. Posts four through six represent the optimal zone for horses with tactical speed. Data from the previous season shows horses drawn outside post six won only 14 percent of races, stemming from additional ground loss incurred on Santa Anita’s single turn during sprint races.
The turf courses present more balanced scenarios, though meaningful biases remain. Mile races on turf favor horses with tactical speed who can track reasonable fractions and produce sustained rallies. Deep closers win merely 19 percent of mile contests. The downhill turf course features horses breaking alertly and maintaining good position through the descent holding distinct advantages over those requiring significant ground-making moves.
RACE ANALYSIS SUMMARY
Race 1 – Maiden Special Weight Turf Sprint (6F, $70,000 | 12:30 PM)
Pace Analysis: Contentious with multiple horses capable of pressing the early tempo. Omnificent and Just a Graze bring tactical speed from turf experience, while Maury Wills demonstrates the fastest stalking profile. The presence of multiple pace factors should create honest tempo setting up the race for horses with tactical speed or late-running ability.
Key Contenders: Maury Wills emerges as the logical favorite based on consecutive 76 Beyer Speed Figures in recent efforts for trainer Philip D’Amato. The four-year-old Audible gelding finished third in competitive efforts with pedigree suggesting significant turf ability. Armando Ayuso provides capable handling with 11 percent win rate at the meet.
Secondary Choices: Big Bill represents a legitimate threat with nine unsuccessful maiden attempts suggesting a breakthrough is imminent. The Mark Glatt trainee shortens back to sprint distance and makes his second start off layoff. Glatt’s 26 percent win rate and 63 percent in-the-money percentage inspire confidence.
Longshots: Little Raymond makes his debut as a gelding for Richard Baltas while adding Juan Hernandez to the saddle for the first time. Gelding operations frequently unlock improved focus, and Hernandez’s 24 percent meet win rate provides elite handling.
Race 2 – $10,000 Claiming Sprint (6F Dirt, $20,000 | 1:03 PM)
Pace Analysis: Captain Sparrow projects as the clear speed of the pace, likely establishing position from the rail and attempting to control tempo. His tactical advantage increases when controlling races from front at claiming level. The honest early tempo should create opportunities for late-running horses if pace proves demanding, though Santa Anita’s pronounced speed bias suggests early positioning proves crucial.
Key Contenders: Captain Sparrow emerges as the standout selection based on multiple factors. The Mark Glatt trainee drops to career-low $10,000 claiming while bringing the field’s best recent speed figure of 75 Beyer. His drop to rock-bottom claiming significantly improves his class positioning relative to rivals earning 60s or demonstrating limited ability.
Secondary Choices: Horizon Wildcat represents the value alternative, having faced overmatched situations in recent starts. Today he drops to more suitable level and reunites with jockey Kazushi Kimura for previous success.
Longshots: Broadway Unions brings consistency from Hector Palma’s barn, competing at this $10,000 claiming level. Spiritist debuts for new trainer Rolando Quinonez after limited previous success.
Race 3 – $25,000 Claiming Fillies/Mares Turf Mile (1M Turf, $28,000 | 1:36 PM)
Pace Analysis: The pace scenario appears remarkably paceless with Exington projecting as the lone horse with clear frontrunning intentions. The four-year-old Hard Spun filly showed good early speed when last seen in December before tiring at longer distance. Shortening to one mile while facing fillies preferring to track or close creates ideal scenario where she establishes comfortable fractions without significant pressure.
Key Contenders: Exington emerges as logical favorite despite classier rivals. The Steven Miyadi trainee shortens from 1 1/16 miles back to one mile after showing promising early speed before tiring in December effort. The paceless scenario creates compelling angle—facing fillies preferring tracking or closing allows her to establish comfortable fractions through opening half-mile.
Secondary Choices: With Love represents quality option despite disappointing one-for-18 record. The six-year-old European import for John Sadler brings significant Beyer Speed Figure advantage on turf. Deep closer relying on honest fractions becomes disadvantaged by paceless nature, potentially leaving her too much ground to recover.
Longshots: Sakura Flavor switches to Juan Hernandez after finishing second to Exington in December encounter. Church Lady debuts for Philip D’Amato after European racing, bringing unknown current form.
Race 4 – San Pasqual Stakes (Grade 2 | 1 1/8M Dirt, $200,000 | 2:09 PM)
Pace Analysis: Tactical rather than contentious, with potential early speed from Midnight Mammoth and Getaway Car balanced against stalking positions of Pony Express and Bartholdy. The moderate pace sets up fair test of stamina and class. Horses employing stalking tactics possess advantages, able to track reasonable fractions before launching sustained bids in stretch.
Key Contenders: Pony Express earns favoritism at 9-5 morning line based on competitive graded stakes form and freshness from three-month layoff. The five-year-old Gun Runner gelding finished three-quarters of a length behind the winner in the Tokyo City Cup Stakes, establishing pace before outfinishing late. Hector Berrios provides capable handling, and freshness from layoff supports favoritism, though zero-for-two stakes record and unproven stamina at distance create legitimate questions.
Getaway Car represents quality alternative with highest career earnings exceeding $616,000. The four-year-old Curlin colt for Bob Baffert won the Best Pal Stakes and Sunland Derby as younger horse. After eight-month layoff in 2025, he returned to finish off board before pointing toward this race. Juan Hernandez and Baffert’s training since that return inspire confidence.
Secondary Choices: Bartholdy brings remarkable consistency with 12 top-three finishes in 20 career starts. The five-year-old gelding seeks first stakes victory after finishing third in multiple graded events. Tyler Baze handles mount for combination showing strong rapport.
Midnight Mammoth returns to San Pasqual after finishing sixth in 2025 renewal. The seven-year-old Curlin gelding won seven-furlong allowance optional claiming on January 16, earning career-best speed figure. Armando Ayuso likely sends him to front from post one, creating pace pressure.
Longshots: Westwood attempts to secure first stakes victory after finishing third in Santa Anita Derby and Native Diver Stakes. The four-year-old Authentic gelding removes blinkers for first time, representing significant equipment change. Outside post six presents tactical challenges but provides flexibility.
Race 5 – Allowance Optional Claiming Cal-Bred Fillies/Mares Turf Mile (1M Turf, $70,000 | 2:39 PM)
Pace Analysis: Multiple horses capable of showing early speed or pressing tactics. Mayacama demonstrated frontrunning in recent victories, while Nanci Griffith and California Rocks bring early speed. Honest fractions should create opportunities for horses with late-running ability or sustained stamina. She’s a Joker projects to employ deep closing tactics well off pace.
Key Contenders: She’s a Joker emerges as value selection despite zero-for-10 record at one-mile distance. The seven-year-old mare for Peter Miller brings field’s best late pace figure. She narrowly missed by nose two starts back at this distance and class level, suggesting ability to succeed under ideal circumstances. Emisael Jaramillo provides capable handling.
The favorable pace scenario and superior late ability create primary appeal. Multiple speed horses should engage through early stages, creating demanding fractions. She’s a Joker settles comfortably off pace, conserving energy before unleashing powerful rally in final furlongs.
Mayacama represents horse to beat as likely favorite. The five-year-old mare has won two of last three starts for Jeff Mullins, demonstrating versatility on both dirt and turf. Juan Hernandez remains aboard after piloting her to victory in most recent dirt start.
Secondary Choices: Green Zone brings excellent recent form with consecutive victories for new trainer Dean Pederson. The four-year-old filly shows perfect two-for-two record at Santa Anita’s turf course. Kazushi Kimura provides capable handling.
Apple Pie enters off sharp maiden-breaking victory on January 11 where she rallied from last to first. The Neil Drysdale trainee stretches out for first attempt against winners, representing significant class test. Hector Berrios maintains mount for Hall of Fame trainer.
Longshots: Just a Kiss debuts on turf for Andy Mathis after limited dirt ability. Stalking style could prove effective if adapting successfully to grass.
Race 6 – Maiden Special Weight 3YO Dirt Sprint (6F, $70,000 | 3:12 PM)
Pace Analysis: Contentious with multiple colts possessing early speed credentials. Baffert’s three runners all show ability to break alertly and establish position. Speed bias on Santa Anita’s main track increases importance of securing favorable early position, creating potential for aggressive riding from gate. Honest to demanding pace should create separation in stretch.
Key Contenders: Crude Velocity earns favoritism from Baffert barn credentials and Juan Hernandez aboard. The three-year-old colt makes career debut with Baffert showing 38 percent win rate with maiden special weight runners. Hernandez’s 40 percent win percentage aboard Baffert runners establishes successful partnership.
Potente represents highest-priced horse after selling for $2.4 million as yearling. The Baffert-trained colt makes second career start after finishing unplaced in debut. Street Boss colt adds Kazushi Kimura to saddle, representing jockey change.
Secondary Choices: Duntov represents Baffert’s third entry and brings unknown debut credentials. Deep Tracks brings Hall of Fame credentials through trainer John Shirreffs and jockey Mike Smith.
Longshots: Ruler of Law makes second career start after earning modest 66 Beyer in debut. Captain Shreve and Cruisin for Cali round out field as longshots.
Race 7 – Megahertz Stakes (Grade 3 | 1M Turf, $100,000 | 3:43 PM)
Pace Analysis: Moderate with several fillies and mares capable of showing tactical speed without overwhelming pressure. Princesa Moche demonstrates frontrunning ability, while multiple stalkers track through reasonable fractions. One-mile distance on firm turf typically rewards horses with tactical speed who produce sustained rallies rather than pure closers requiring significant late runs.
Key Contenders: Will Then emerges as standout based on outstanding recent form and ideal class positioning. The four-year-old War of Will filly finished three-quarters of a length third in American Oaks on December 28, a Grade 1 event representing significantly stronger competition. Trainer Jonathan Thomas positioned her perfectly, dropping from Grade 1 company to softer Grade 3 spot while cutting back from 1 1/4 miles to one mile.
She previously won Jimmy Durante Stakes at this Grade 3 level as juvenile. Mike Smith picks up mount for Hall of Fame jockey-trainer combination.
Public Assembly represents most likely favorite based on connections and recent graded stakes form. The five-year-old mare for Philip D’Amato finished fifth as beaten favorite in Robert J. Frankel Stakes on January 8. Cutback from 1 1/8 miles to one mile should prove beneficial given her closing style.
Hector Berrios picks up mount for first ride aboard mare, bringing 29 percent meet win rate. Previous Royal Heroine Stakes victory demonstrates affinity for course and success at this class level.
Secondary Choices: Vibez brings excellent recent form with two victories in last three starts at one-mile turf trip. The five-year-old mare for Peter Eurton drops from Grade 1 Matriarch to Grade 3 level, representing significant class relief. Juan Hernandez returns to saddle after piloting her to previous victories.
Princesa Moche brings field’s best recent turf Beyer of 94 after finishing second in Las Cienegas Stakes. Mirco Demuro handles mount for Team O’Neill.
Longshots: Going Lucky and My Perfect Wave represent secondary stalking options with proven ability. Sigh No More debuts in Southern California after Irish racing experience for Philip D’Amato.
Race 8 – Allowance Optional Claiming 6.5F Dirt ($70,000 | 4:14 PM)
Pace Analysis: Significant intrigue centered on Cornucopian’s expected tactics and Simple Song’s confirmed frontrunning ability. Simple Song projects as clear speed based on running style profile. Mark Glatt trainee demonstrates frontrunning in all three career starts. Kazushi Kimura’s aggressive handling style should send him to front. Cornucopian’s pace tactics create primary unknown—removal of blinkers suggests trainer seeks to encourage rating tactics. Honest fractions should set up race fairly for all running styles, though speed bias continues to favor early positional advantages.
Key Contenders: Cornucopian enters as overwhelming favorite despite dramatic Malibu Stakes paddock scratch on December 28. The four-year-old Into Mischief colt reared and sat down in paddock, resulting in automatic scratch. Baffert emphasized colt emerged uninjured, with subsequent training proceeding normally. Previously won career debut before finishing second in Arkansas Derby and fourth in Blue Grass, establishing graded stakes credentials.
Combination of Baffert’s training and Juan Hernandez’s riding creates exceptional confidence. Removal of blinkers represents significant equipment change that could prove beneficial if colt showed excessive aggressiveness in training.
Simple Song represents value alternative as logical upset candidate. The four-year-old Munnings gelding delivered three consecutive competitive efforts for Mark Glatt. Third-place finish in January 2 race featured several today’s rivals, providing reliable form line. Simple Song carved out fast early fractions before tiring to third.
Glatt’s 26 percent win rate and decision to run Simple Song back quickly suggest confidence in gelding’s current condition. Kazushi Kimura’s aggressive riding suits frontrunning tactics.
Secondary Choices: March of Time brings Hall of Fame credentials through Bob Baffert and Mike Smith. The five-year-old makes first start since November allowance victory. Blinkers-off equipment change represents attempt to encourage rating tactics.
Red Flag won most recent start on January 2 after being claimed by Jeff Mullins. The eight-year-old gelding brings veteran experience and tactical versatility. Tiago Pereira provides capable handling.
Longshots: See Through It brings impressive career earnings exceeding $1.2 million. Mbagnick brings tactical versatility for John Sadler. For All Mankind and Whiskyginandbrandy represent longer-priced alternatives.
Race 9 – Maiden Special Weight 3YO Fillies Turf Sprint (6.5F Down, $70,000 | 4:44 PM)
Pace Analysis: Difficult to project given number of first-time starters with unknown tactical preferences. Several fillies with previous racing experience show early speed or stalking tactics, suggesting potential for honest fractions. Downhill configuration creates unique tactical demands, rewarding fillies who break alertly and maintain good position through descent. Those breaking slowly face difficult tasks overcoming positional advantages.
Key Contenders: Novita Dominga emerges as intriguing debut runner based on pedigree, connections, and purchase price. The Not This Time filly sold for $525,000 as yearling before joining powerful partnership. John Sadler trains filly as first foal from stakes winner Dominga. Hector Berrios picks up mount for jockey-trainer combination succeeding at exceptionally high rates.
Not This Time sire line produces winners at 16 percent rate with three-year-old debuting progeny on turf sprints. Pedigree supports success in this precise race type. Sadler’s patient approach indicates filly arrives ready.
Counterbalance represents most likely favorite based on previous experience and improving form trajectory. The three-year-old for Michael McCarthy showed fastest stalking profile in career debut. Kazushi Kimura provides capable handling for filly whose breeding suggests turf affinity. McCarthy’s 18 percent meet win rate and 35 percent in-the-money percentage demonstrate competency.
Secondary Choices: Silkie Sevei returns for Philip D’Amato after showing frontrunning tendencies. The Irish-bred filly brings three career starts without victory. Emisael Jaramillo handles mount for D’Amato trainee who excels with European imports.
She’s Limitless brings Bob Baffert debut credentials. Ricardo Gonzalez handles mount for combination facing challenge competing against more experienced rivals.
Longshots: Mo Sasha and Getting Closer represent fillies with previous experience seeking to break through after unsuccessful maiden attempts. Little Opal debuts for Doug O’Neill with Mike Smith aboard, creating intriguing debut credentials. Kizazi, Acoustic Kitty, and Lerios round out secondary contenders.
Jockey Notes
Juan Hernandez continues dominance at Santa Anita meet, maintaining elite form with 24 percent win rate and exceptional tactical awareness. Through January 24, he tied for lead with 15 wins, capturing Jockey of the Week honors for January 5-11 after winning three stakes races. Partnership with Bob Baffert proves particularly successful at 30 percent win rate. Handicappers should note strong affinity for tactical speed horses with stalking trip capabilities.
Hector Berrios enjoys exceptional success with 23 percent win rate and 52 percent in-the-money percentage. Excels aboard closers and mid-pack runners with patient approach. Developed strong partnerships with trainers John Sadler and Philip D’Amato.
Mike Smith brings Hall of Fame credentials with selective placement typically reserved for top connections in graded stakes and quality maiden events. Tactical brilliance and decades of experience provide advantages in pressure situations.
Kazushi Kimura delivers consistent performances with 14 percent win rate and 35 percent in-the-money percentage. Aggressive riding style suits frontrunners, though demonstrates tactical versatility when needed. Particular effectiveness with European imports adapting to American racing.
Armando Ayuso and Ricardo Gonzalez provide capable handling while showing selective success with specific trainer connections and race types.
Trainer Notes
Doug O’Neill leads trainer standings through January 24 with 10 victories from 51 starts (20 percent win rate) and 47 percent in-the-money percentage. Success stems from aggressive placement decisions and tactical versatility. Excels at identifying spots where class drops or favorable pace scenarios create ideal opportunities.
Mark Glatt finished second in trainer standings and won previous meet title with 31 victories and 25 percent win rate. Exceptional skill developing older maidens and placing horses where running styles align with pace dynamics. Particular strength second-off-the-claim at 32 percent rate.
Bob Baffert maintains position among training elite with 23 percent win rate and 50 percent in-the-money percentage. Excels with maiden special weight runners at 38 percent rate. Aggressive placement decisions demonstrate supreme confidence in horse condition.
Philip D’Amato won autumn 2025 meet and maintains strong current form. Excels with turf runners and European imports, showing exceptional skill placing horses where surface and distance favor abilities.
John Sadler brings consistent quality through selective placement and patient development. Excels with turf horses and shows particular success with fillies progressing through conditions.
