Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!
Don’t forget Pick Pony’s Expert Picks, AI Picks, and Past Performance Sheets/Racing Forms!
The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
Today marks one of the most significant days in the Sunland Park racing calendar, featuring a ten race program headlined by the Sunland Park Derby and the Sunland Park Oaks. These races serve as vital qualifying events for the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks, respectively, drawing top tier three year olds from across the country. The supporting card is equally robust, with four additional stakes races showcasing the best local and regional talent across various divisions. With high stakes and championship points on the line, the competition is expected to be fierce throughout the afternoon.
Weather and Track Conditions
The forecast for Sunland Park indicates mostly cloudy skies throughout the day. Temperatures are expected to reach a comfortable high of 68°F, cooling to a low of 39°F after sunset. Winds will be coming from the south at approximately 9 mph. Given the lack of recent significant precipitation, the main track is rated as fast. This firm surface typically provides a consistent and safe platform for both sprinters and routers alike.
Track Bias and Post Position Bias
Sunland Park historically shows a preference for horses with tactical speed, particularly in sprint distances. While the rail can be advantageous in shorter races, the longer route races like the Sunland Park Derby often play more fairly, allowing closers a genuine opportunity if the early pace is contested. For today's stakes laden card, saving ground on the turns will be essential, but the fast track condition should not strictly limit the winning profile to front runners only.
1st Race – Sunland Park – Sunday, February 15th, 2026
Post Time
12:25PM
Pace Analysis
A brisk opening half mile is expected in this five and a half furlong sprint. Shugs Rocket and Bye Bye Matty P are the primary speed elements and should ensure a pressured lead.
Key Contenders
Comfort J Byrd 4 enters this spot for trainer Dick Cappellucci with a tactical advantage. He possesses the speed to stay close but the patience to let the primary leaders duel. Roll Penny Roll 8 also represents the Cappellucci stable and draws the outside post, which allows for a clean trip away from the early skirmish.
Secondary Choices
Shugs Rocket 1 must use his inside draw to clear the field early. Bye Bye Matty P 3 has shown competitive figures in the past and should be involved from the start.
Longshots
Hold Me Only 5 is a veteran campaigner who may find the distance a bit sharp but could pass tired horses late if the pace becomes suicidal.
2nd Race – Sunland Park – Sunday, February 15th, 2026
Post Time
12:51PM
Pace Analysis
The tempo for this six furlong allowance appears moderate. Trafficstorm and Short Round Bound are the most likely to lead the field through the early stages.
Key Contenders
M Ls Sportscaster 7 is a consistent performer for the Joel Marr stable. He has been knocking on the door at this level and gets the services of Ken Tohill. Holy Bullet 8 has shown steady improvement and should enjoy the outside draw to launch a clear run.
Secondary Choices
Jmark 2 has sufficient tactical speed to secure a good position from the inside. Trafficstorm 4 could be dangerous if he is allowed to dictate terms without pressure.
Longshots
Ghostly Chance 1 steps up in class today but has been working well in the mornings and could outrun his odds with a ground saving trip.
3rd Race – Sunland Park – Sunday, February 15th, 2026
Post Time
01:18PM
Pace Analysis
An honest pace is expected at this six and a half furlong distance. Go Water and Strike the Senses are likely to be the main protagonists on the front end.
Key Contenders
Your Money 5 finds a softer spot today and possesses the versatility to sit just off the pace. Musical Money 7 is a stablemate to the favorite and has shown the ability to finish strongly in the closing stages.
Secondary Choices
Sophisticat 9 must overcome the wide draw but has the tactical speed to do so. Strike the Senses 2 will be a factor as long as she can clear the first flight early.
Longshots
Comfort Dance 8 is a price play that has shown flashes of ability and could sneak into the frame if the leaders falter.
4th Race – Sunland Park – Sunday, February 15th, 2026
Post Time
01:45PM
Pace Analysis
The Bill Thomas Memorial Stakes features high octane speed. Ryvit and Clovisconnection are both exceptionally fast, and a contested, rapid pace is almost guaranteed.
Key Contenders
Ryvit 4 is a class act for trainer Steve Asmussen and has proven he can handle fast fractions. Clovisconnection 1 is equally quick but will need to break perfectly to avoid being pinned on the rail.
Secondary Choices
Katonah 2 ships in with top connections and will be the first one to pounce if the top two duel themselves into submission. Neiman 5 also benefits from a fast pace as a horse who does his best running late.
Longshots
Augusta Melody 3 is a seasoned veteran who will need a career best at this stage of his life to upset this talented field.
5th Race – Sunland Park – Sunday, February 15th, 2026
Post Time
02:13PM
Pace Analysis
The Peppers Pride Stakes at one mile should feature a relatively relaxed early tempo. American Prada and Holy Miss are the candidates to lead the field through the first turn.
Key Contenders
Marka 8 is a talented filly for Todd Fincher who appears well suited to the one mile distance. Day At a Time 5 is another Fincher trainee who has been sprinting well and gives the impression that more ground will be to her liking.
Secondary Choices
American Prada 6 has the speed to be a wire to wire threat if left alone. I Am Paula Revere 1 should get a perfect trip along the rail and save ground for the stretch run.
Longshots
Desert Hope 10 faces a difficult task from the far outside post but has shown enough late interest in her races to be considered for minor awards.
6th Race – Sunland Park – Sunday, February 15th, 2026
Post Time
02:43PM
Pace Analysis
Speed Merchant and Flash of Valor are the likely pacesetters in the Red Hedeman Mile. The tempo should be solid but manageable for those tracking the leaders.
Key Contenders
Speed Merchant 3 is the horse to catch and has the speed to lead from start to finish if he can clear the field. Buy Local 8 is a powerful closer who will be looking for a fast pace to chase down the stretch.
Secondary Choices
Risk Capital 1 has the benefit of the rail and should be tucked in just behind the leaders. Flash of Valor 5 is another who will be forwardly placed throughout.
Longshots
Vanishing Money 7 has been showing consistent effort in his training and could be a factor if the favorites underperform.
7th Race – Sunland Park – Sunday, February 15th, 2026
Post Time
03:15PM
Pace Analysis
The Sunland Park Oaks is expected to have a fair pace. Bottle of Rouge and Touch of Magic both possess tactical speed that should keep them within range of the leaders.
Key Contenders
Bottle of Rouge 4 is a highly regarded filly for Bob Baffert and enters this race with significant class. Touch of Magic 5 represents the Steve Asmussen stable and has been consistent in high level company.
Secondary Choices
Not a Lady 3 is a late runner who will appreciate the mile distance. Cashed 2 ships in from California and brings reliable form for Doug ONeill.
Longshots
Pashmina 7 is a bit of a wildcard stepping up in class for Rob Atras but has shown the talent to compete with this group on her best day.
8th Race – Sunland Park – Sunday, February 15th, 2026
Post Time
03:44PM
Pace Analysis
The Harry Henson Stakes features older fillies and mares going one mile. Practical Dream and Gloryibee should lead the way through honest fractions.
Key Contenders
Practical Dream 4 is in peak form for trainer Justin Evans and appears to be the class of the field. Corrina Corrina 6 is a local favorite who rarely runs a bad race and will be closing late.
Secondary Choices
Wild Bout Hilary 3 is fresh and should be tracking the leaders from the start. Gloryibee 7 has the speed to be dangerous if she is not pressured early.
Longshots
Aye Candy 2 has a fondness for this track and could surprise at a price if the leaders tire.
9th Race – Sunland Park – Sunday, February 15th, 2026
Post Time
04:17PM
Pace Analysis
The Sunland Park Derby will likely be contested at a high speed. Express Kid and Way Beyond are both expected to be aggressive early, ensuring a test of stamina at the one and one sixteenth mile distance.
Key Contenders
Way Beyond 5 is a local contender who nearly won the prep and seems to be maturing at the right time. Express Kid 1 is the morning line favorite and must manage the rail draw effectively to maintain his lead.
Secondary Choices
Pavlovian 3 is a deep closer for Doug ONeill who will relish a hot pace. Sharons Beach 2 gets John Velazquez and is expected to show significant improvement stretching out in distance.
Longshots
Bricklin 6 has shown a high level of ability at Oaklawn Park and could be the sleeper in this field if he can sit a stalking trip.
10th Race – Sunland Park – Sunday, February 15th, 2026
Post Time
04:50PM
Pace Analysis
A very fast tempo is anticipated for the finale. Shez Punctual and Mo Money Molly are both quick from the gate and will likely set up the race for the closers.
Key Contenders
Make Up a Story 5 is a strong finisher who should find the pace to her liking. Dream Money 3 is another closer who has been competitive in similar company and will be running on late.
Secondary Choices
Hoodwinked Kate 6 is a consistent runner who usually finds her way into the finish. Mo Money Molly 2 will have to work hard to maintain her speed for the full six furlongs.
Longshots
Foxy Red 7 is a veteran mare who could pick up the pieces if the early leaders duel too hard.
Jockey Notes and Insights
Juan Hernandez and John Velazquez are the headliners in the jockey colony today, with Hernandez taking several live mounts in the stakes races. Their experience in big race situations provides a significant edge. Locally, Alfredo Juarez Jr and Luis Negron continue to dominate the standings and are always dangerous on their home track. Keith Asmussen is riding with confidence and has several key mounts for his father's powerful stable.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Todd Fincher remains the dominant force at Sunland Park, particularly with his New Mexico bred stakes runners. Steve Asmussen and Bob Baffert have sent several high quality three year olds to secure Derby and Oaks points, signaling that these horses are ready for top efforts. Justin Evans has been highly successful with his recent acquisitions and enters the day with several strong contenders in the handicap and stakes ranks.
