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The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

The Sunday card at Tampa Bay Downs features nine races with a mix of dirt and turf action to close out the weekend. The headliner is the 9th race, an allowance contest on the turf for older horses that has drawn a competitive field. The 8th race also stands out as a high-quality maiden special weight for three-year-olds. The claiming ranks are well-populated throughout the afternoon, offering several scenarios where horses are taking significant drops in class or stretching out in distance.

Weather and Track Conditions

The forecast for Oldsmar calls for partly cloudy skies with pleasant temperatures ranging from the mid-60s to the low 70s. The main track is listed as fast and has been playing fair, though moisture from overnight humidity can sometimes tighten the surface early in the day. The turf course is firm with the rail set at 12 feet. This rail setting generally keeps the course in excellent shape but places a premium on ground-saving trips.

Track Bias

On the main track at the 1 mile and 40-yard distance, horses with tactical speed often hold an advantage. The configuration favors runners who can secure a forward position before the first turn, making it difficult for deep closers to make up ground unless the pace is exceptionally fast. On the turf, the 12-foot rail setting tightens the turns slightly. Horses that are forced four or five wide on the far turn often struggle to catch competent leaders who save ground along the inside.

Race 1 Analysis

The opener is a 1 mile 40-yard claiming event for older horses. The pace scenario suggests that Chaz the Chief and Conspiracy Fact possess the tactical speed to control the early tempo. Greyzer draws the rail and will likely be sent to protect his position, which could lead to a contested pace if the outside runners press hard.

Key contenders include Chaz the Chief (2), who drops from a tougher conditioned claiming level and should appreciate the softer company. Conspiracy Fact (4) is another primary threat, representing the dangerous Juan Arriagada stable. If he is healthy after a recent scratch, he fits well here. Greyzer (1) is a secondary choice who benefits from the inside draw and could grind out a share if he avoids getting shuffled back.

Race 2 Analysis

This claiming race for fillies and mares at 1 mile 40 yards features a distinct pace advantage for Stormy Mitole. She projects as the primary speed from the inside post. Shabam from the outside also has early foot and may have to send hard to clear the field.

The race likely goes through Stormy Mitole (1), who is the speed of the speed and draws the rail. If she breaks cleanly, she could lead this field from gate to wire. Captured Darling (6) is the main danger, coming off a scratch earlier in the week and showing the ability to stalk and pounce. Woods Hole (2) is a consistent grinder who would benefit if the pace heats up significantly.

Race 3 Analysis

The third race is a 6-furlong sprint for maiden claimers, a condition that often produces chaotic results. Magala from the rail and Blazing Affair appear to have the most early speed in the group.

Blazing Affair (6) is a key contender based on her flashed speed in previous starts and the lack of depth in this field. Sonny Leon takes the mount, suggesting an aggressive ride. Bellini Gold (2) is a logical threat as she has been working steadily and may improve in a race lacking standout form. Magala (1) is a secondary option who needs a clean break from the rail to be competitive.

Race 4 Analysis

This 7-furlong event for three-year-old maiden fillies features a significant class dropper. Sisterlithic showed speed in morning workouts and comes out of a scratched maiden special weight spot, indicating positive intent from connections. Solitary Passion should also be forwardly placed.

Sisterlithic (1) is the clear horse to beat dropping into the maiden claiming ranks. This placement is often a confident move to secure a win. Ivey My Love (2) has shown flashes of ability and fits well at this level with journeyman Ademar Santos aboard. First Hathor (3) is a secondary choice for the high-percentage Kathleen O’Connell barn.

Race 5 Analysis

The fifth race is a 1-mile turf contest for fillies and mares. The pace scenario is somewhat murky, with veteran mares like Laloba Feroz and Tic Tic Tic Boom in the mix. Tic Tic Tic Boom is a closer who will need some pace to run at, while Rose View has shown speed but has been on the also-eligible list recently.

Tic Tic Tic Boom (5) is a class act who has faced much tougher company and possesses a dangerous late kick. She Takes Cash (3) is another primary contender who gets the services of top jockey Samy Camacho. True Myth (1) is a secondary choice who could hit the board if she saves ground from the rail.

Race 6 Analysis

This 1 mile 40-yard claiming race highlights a major class dropper in Far Above. Spun to Purfection looks to be the main rival, providing speed from the inside for trainer Gerald Bennett.

Far Above (11) is the standout despite the wide post, dropping from the $16,000 level to $8,000. The class relief should be the difference maker. Spun to Purfection (1) is the primary danger, offering high-percentage connections and the rail draw. Super Engreida (2) is a secondary choice who has been running evenly against similar company.

Race 7 Analysis

The seventh race is a 1-mile turf event where Magnolia Wind and Compass Fire are likely to show early interest. The race features some interesting shippers and class variables.

Bottle Rocket (FR) (5) is a key contender for trainer Michael Trombetta. The French-bred mare should appreciate the firm turf and fits this class level well. Classicals Finale (3) is another top threat, carrying top weight as a sign of her good recent form. Timeless Rose (4) is a veteran secondary choice who knows this course well and is rarely far away at the finish.

Race 8 Analysis

This 7-furlong maiden special weight for three-year-olds is one of the strongest races on the card. Arraigned and Ramajay will likely attract the bulk of the support and ensure an honest pace.

Arraigned (3) represents the powerful Chad Brown barn and will be heavily bet with Samy Camacho aboard. Ramajay (1) for Saffie Joseph Jr. is the main rival, drawing the rail and needing a sharp break. Sir Gar d’Lyon (5) is a secondary choice who has experience and offers value if the top two falter.

Race 9 Analysis

The feature race is an allowance on the turf at 1 mile. Late Call and Charles J provide the speed, while the European import Goncora (GB) will be looking to stalk and pounce.

Goncora (GB) (2) is the horse to beat for Chad Brown. European imports in this barn are dangerous at this level. Tiz Freedom (7) is a serious threat for trainer Bill Mott, as the four-year-old should be ready to fire off the bench. Charles J (6) is a secondary choice who has the speed to steal the race if the favorites wait too long to engage.

Jockey and Trainer Notes

Juan Arriagada and jockey Antonio Gallardo team up in the first race and have been a potent combination at this meet. Gerald Bennett continues to be a force in the claiming ranks, particularly with horses dropping in class like Spun to Purfection in the 6th. Samy Camacho has a busy card with several live mounts, including key contenders for Chad Brown in the turf races. Brown’s string at Tampa is formidable, and his entrants in the maiden special weight and allowance races command maximum respect.