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The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

Today’s card features eight races mixing Quarter Horses and Thoroughbreds, with a blend of dirt sprints and route races on the turf. The feature races appear to be the mid-card claiming events where field size and competitive morning lines offer solid value. The first race kicks off with a 300-yard dash for Quarter Horses, setting the stage for seven Thoroughbred contests.

Weather and Track Conditions

• Forecast: Partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the mid-60s to low-70s.
• Track: Fast (Dirt)
• Turf: Firm (Rail at 21 feet)

Track Bias

• Dirt: Speed is generally dangerous, especially in sprints (5-6 furlongs). Inside posts (1-3) tend to perform well, while outside posts can be a disadvantage for horses lacking early clearing speed.
• Turf: With the rail out at 21 feet, the course plays tight. This favors speed horses who can steal a race on the front end, but also aids closers finding seams along the rail. Wide trips are particularly costly today.

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Race 1: Maiden Claiming (300 Yards – Dirt)

Pace Analysis: The break is critical in this Quarter Horse sprint. Say Its Not So has shown speed and should break sharply. Rr Favorite Power on the rail may be forced to send hard. Expect a frantic pace with little room for error.

• Key Contenders:
  • Say Its Not So (3): The standout. Consistent recent efforts and a slight drop in competition level make this filly the one to beat.
  • Ps Grand Cartel (5): Drops in class and draws a middle post; trainer Alvaro Monteverde often gets improvement in these claiming ranks.
• Secondary Choices:
  • Chubalicious (4): A wildcard with flashes of ability; fits speed-wise if she breaks clean.
• Longshots:
  • Av Lillys Tornadoe (7): Draws the outside, which helps avoid traffic. Could pick up pieces if the inside horses bump.

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Race 2: Maiden Claiming (1 Mile – Dirt)

Pace Analysis: Smokin Hot Chick possesses the best early foot and will likely control the pace. Chica Tigre will press. The mile distance tests these speedsters, potentially setting up for a stalker.

• Key Contenders:
  • Smokin Hot Chick (5): The speed of the field. Drops in class and stretches out—a high-percentage move for trainer Juan Pablo Silva.
  • Scarlett Letter (6): Consistent stalker likely to sit just off the pace. Trainer Wade Rarick has her in good form.
• Secondary Choices:
  • More Trouble (7): Grinding style fits well for minor awards if the pace collapses; appreciates the class relief.
  • Evans Valley Girl (2): Competitive at this level but needs a career-best to win.
• Longshots:
  • Kissed Lips (1): Draws the rail but needs a major reversal of form to contend.

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Race 3: Claiming (1 Mile – Turf)

Pace Analysis: Hot Legs Romolo has natural speed and draws the middle. Sugar Buzz may send from the inside. The pace should be honest, giving a fair shot to both front-runners and stalkers.

• Key Contenders:
  • Hot Legs Romolo (5): The class of the field with superior speed figures. Should sit just off the leaders or lead; strong kick home.
  • McClusky (7): Consistent turf performer who rarely runs a bad race. Will likely close late.
• Secondary Choices:
  • McGregor Lake (1): A grinder who can save ground from the rail and sneak into the mix.
  • Sparklet (6): Fits well on speed figures and has been knocking on the door.
• Longshots:
  • Star Mission (4): An 8-year-old veteran who knows the track; can pop up with a big race on his day.

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Race 4: Claiming (6 Furlongs – Dirt)

Pace Analysis: Sir Bregovic is the primary speed. Ready to Storm may try to go with him, ensuring a swift pace that could set up for a stalker.

• Key Contenders:
  • Sir Bregovic (2): Dropping to a competitive claiming level with the back class and speed to dominate. The Silva barn is deadly in these spots.
  • Track Robber (4): Logical alternative running consistent figures; should pick up pieces if the favorite falters.
• Secondary Choices:
  • Godsend (6): Fits on numbers and has upside but needs to show more heart in the lane.
• Longshots:
  • Upright (1): Draws the rail and could save ground to sneak a share.

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Race 5: Claiming (5 Furlongs – Dirt)

Pace Analysis: A 5-furlong dash usually means all-out speed. Narizon and Extremely Wicked will likely gun for the lead, with Alpine Sermon also showing gate speed.

• Key Contenders:
  • Narizon (9): Outside draw is perfect for this distance. Can watch the inside speed clear and move on the turn.
  • Extremely Wicked (5): Has the speed to clear but must avoid a duel to steal it.
• Secondary Choices:
  • Honeymoon Suite (1): Will benefit from the rail if he breaks clean; might get the garden trip.
• Longshots:
  • Manzoni (7): Veteran closer who needs a hot pace and everything to go right at this short distance.

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Race 6: Claiming (5 Furlongs – Dirt)

Pace Analysis: Seattle Surf has shown good early energy and should be forwardly placed. Big Stetson also has gas, ensuring a competitive front end.

• Key Contenders:
  • Seattle Surf (2): Poised to score; inside draw allows him to dictate terms against this company.
  • Mendelssohns Music (3): Interesting contender capable of improving off recent efforts.
• Secondary Choices:
  • Big Stetson (9): Draws outside and will be rolling late; benefits if the pace heats up.
• Longshots:
  • Chick Command (6): Steady performer who can hit the board at a price.

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Race 7: Starter Optional Claiming (1 Mile – Turf)

Pace Analysis: My Munnings Model and Mongolian Frost likely vie for the lead. The pace shouldn’t be too hot, favoring forwardly placed runners.

• Key Contenders:
  • My Munnings Model (1): Speed of the speed from the rail. On this tight turf course, he could wire the field if allowed to set soft fractions.
  • Street Humor (5): Major threat with proven ability on the grass.
• Secondary Choices:
  • Mongolian Frost (6): Consistent runner who will be in the mix throughout.
  • Benny Buckets (7): Hard-knocking veteran who always runs his race.
• Longshots:
  • Brown Town (8): Could surprise if he draws in and gets a favorable pace setup.

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Race 8: Claiming (6 Furlongs – Dirt)

Pace Analysis: She’s So Shiny and Happy Chappy both possess speed, setting up a potential duel in the nightcap.

• Key Contenders:
  • She’s So Shiny (2): The class of the field. Despite the low claiming price, her back class stands out.
  • Happy Chappy (1): Draws the rail and should be sent hard from the gate.
• Secondary Choices:
  • Charmant E (3): Stalker type who can pick up the pieces.
• Longshots:
  • Go Stormin Girl (12): Terrible post but could be running on late at a massive price.