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The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

Welcome to another exciting day of racing at Turf Paradise on this Monday afternoon. The eight race card features a mix of maiden claiming, allowance optional claiming, and claiming events, highlighted by the Allred Brothers Stakes in the second race for quarter horses. Field sizes are robust today, providing ample betting opportunities across both dirt and turf surfaces. Handicappers will need to navigate varying class levels and evaluate horses stretching out or cutting back in distance.

Weather and Track Conditions

The current weather in Phoenix is cloudy with a temperature of 55°F and an east wind at 5 mph.

The main dirt track should play fast and firm, often favoring early speed in sprint races at distances of five and a half furlongs or shorter. Over the longer route distances, the track tends to play more fairly, allowing stalkers and closers to make up ground. The turf course typically plays evenly, though horses drawn on the inside post positions have a distinct statistical advantage in route races.

Jockey and Trainer Notes

The jockey colony at Turf Paradise is highly competitive. Riders like Orlando Mojica and Karlo Lopez consistently find themselves in the winner circle and are entrusted with live mounts throughout today. Kiaman McGregor and Manuel Americano also have busy afternoons and have shown the ability to bring home longshots at generous odds.

Local trainers have a distinct advantage at Turf Paradise. Matthew Fales sends out several strong contenders today, and his barn is known for having horses fully cranked. Robertino Diodoro is another high percentage trainer who places his horses precisely where they can win. Shawn Davis and Jose Silva Jr also have multiple entries today and possess excellent statistics.

Race 1 Maiden 300Y Dirt

Turn It Upp and Stellaaa are the key contenders with the most consistent early speed figures and favorable positioning. Ida Clair, Mscartel, and Kj Lets Roll are secondary choices that have shown flashes of ability or have been knocking on the door. Nonika Cartel is the longshot to watch, possessing back figures that suggest she can compete on her best day.

Race 2 Allred Brothers Stakes 350Y Dirt

Shiny Nova and Jes Relentless are the primary threats, bringing blistering early pace and strong recent form into this stakes event. Four Sweet Kid, Eye Am Tempting, and Hes Audacious provide deep secondary options with proven class and tactical speed. Three Finger Jack is a longshot who could crash the board with a perfect break from his inside post.

Race 3 Claiming 6 Furlongs Dirt

Standard Pressure and Run as One are the standouts here, offering tactical speed and significant class relief. Fourlynnes and Cheekwood are capable secondary choices who can close into a fast pace or compete on raw talent. Mo’o Lio is the lone longshot who might steal the race if she shakes loose on the front end early.

Race 4 Allowance Optional Claiming 1 Mile Turf

Expressive Love, Arijana’s Pearl, and Island Jive are the top turf route contenders, boasting strong recent figures, great closing kicks, and ground saving potential. Interplay and Inxpress are solid secondary selections capable of flying late or taking them wire to wire. Dutton Street Girl is an intriguing longshot stepping up in class who has shown an affinity for the grass.

Race 5 Maiden Claiming 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt

Hugh Glass and Urban Justice possess the right mix of class and pedigree to handle this maiden field. Woodrow Call and Colonel Brock are secondary threats who can dictate the pace or stalk effectively. Bye Bye Retirement is a longshot dropping in class that merits a look as he stretches out.

Race 6 Maiden Claiming 1 Mile Dirt

Mo Grey and Smokeintheair are the top choices as they stretch out, showing improvement and favorable class relief. Pick It Up and Bold Prospect act as secondary options with tactical speed and strong jockey assignments. Dormello’s Legacy is the primary longshot who might wake up at this longer distance.

Race 7 Claiming 1 Mile Dirt

Logical Myth and Mr Fabricator stand out as the class of the field in this conditioned route event. Cousin Richie and Om Fire offer secondary value with their ability to close or flash past brilliance. Stop and a Tres is a deep closing longshot who needs a pace meltdown to factor late.

Race 8 Claiming 6 Furlongs Dirt

Heartfull of Joy and Miss Sundaze bring blistering speed to the nightcap and are the ones to catch. Royal Integrity and Rockbar are dangerous secondary choices positioned perfectly to stalk the expected speed duel. Hakuhia is a deep closing longshot crying out for a fast pace to run down the leaders.