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The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
Today’s eight-race card at Turf Paradise offers a mix of claiming and allowance events on both the dirt and the turf. With standard mid-week conditions, the meeting provides numerous opportunities for finding value in competitive fields. Handicappers are focused on several horses dropping in class, particularly in the lower-level claiming ranks.
Weather and Track Conditions
The forecast for Phoenix on Tuesday, February 17, 2026, calls for mostly sunny skies during the day with a high of 66°F and 49% humidity. Overnight storms brought strong winds and rain to the Valley, resulting in wet roads and brisk temperatures earlier this morning. Southwest winds of 9 mph are expected today. While significant rain fell overnight, the main weather event is expected to clear by 9 a.m., leaving the dirt track fast and the turf course firm for the afternoon program.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
The Turf Paradise dirt surface generally plays fair, though early speed is often advantageous in shorter sprints. On the turf course, post position bias is highly significant, especially in route races where the rail is set at 28 feet. Data indicates that inside posts (1 and 2) hold a distinct advantage, while outside runners in large fields often struggle with ground loss on the turns. The favorite win percentage at the track remains strong at approximately 38 percent.
Race 1 – Optional Claiming
Post Time
01:15PM
Pace Analysis
This 400-yard Quarter Horse sprint is determined by the break from the gate. In a twelve-horse field, the inside and middle gates typically have an edge in securing an unobstructed path.
Key Contenders
Special D (2) enters with strong recent form and consistency at this level. Tempting Chad (1) was a runner-up in higher class last time out and benefits from the rail draw.
Secondary Choices
Seisponte (10) has been consistent and may benefit from an outside draw to avoid early traffic. Hawkeyes Cartel (11) drops in class but must overcome a wide post.
Longshots
Cartel Drunk Playboy (5) possesses back class and could show improvement from a middle draw.
Race 2 – Claiming
Post Time
01:40PM
Pace Analysis
In this six-furlong dirt sprint, the pace should be honest and steady. Several front runners drawn in middle and outside positions should ensure a solid tempo.
Key Contenders
Selinus (2) has been the runner-up in two recent starts and benefits from an inside ground-saving trip. Embraceable You (3) won over this track and distance recently and maintains strong form.
Secondary Choices
Charmz (4) won last time out and possesses the tactical speed to remain competitive. Annamaria (1) drops into a claimer and could improve against lesser competition from the rail.
Longshots
Randi Randi Randi (6) has been running evenly and could factor if the leaders falter late.
Race 3 – Allowance Optional Claiming
Post Time
02:07PM
Pace Analysis
Early pace in this one-mile turf route is typically moderate and strategic. With the rail at 28 feet, inside speed is paramount to securing a ground-saving position into the first turn.
Key Contenders
Factory Drive (4) comes off a solid third-place effort and is well-placed for a stalking trip. No Ordinary Tiger (3) won over this track and distance two starts back and represents a major class threat.
Secondary Choices
Jacked Up (5) steps down in class, a powerful angle at this track. Thirsty Vision (1) holds the highly advantageous rail draw on the grass.
Longshots
Kangaroo Coast (2) possesses tactical speed and could factor if the early fractions are soft.
Race 4 – Claiming
Post Time
02:36PM
Pace Analysis
This six-and-a-half-furlong dirt sprint will be highly contested. Several entrants flash early foot, likely resulting in a rapid opening quarter-mile that favors mid-pack closers.
Key Contenders
Standard of Proof (7) won last time out and is positioned to follow up from an outside draw. Moonlight Road (5) finished a close second recently and offers tactical flexibility.
Secondary Choices
Big Producer (3) drops in class and could mount a serious challenge against this field. Five Twenty Sunset (1) will look to save ground from the rail throughout the turn.
Longshots
Sir Lucas (6) has shown past flashes of talent and could outrun odds if left alone on the lead.
Race 5 – Claiming
Post Time
03:06PM
Pace Analysis
This five-furlong dash for fillies and mares requires pure speed from the start. Sharp breaks are essential, favoring runners who can establish an immediate lead.
Key Contenders
Behindthebar (4) has strong claims after a good second last time out and occupies an ideal central post. C Plum Run (1) has been consistent in placed efforts and gains a massive advantage with the rail draw.
Secondary Choices
Coracoracora (6) could challenge if building on recent form but must overcome an outside post. Royal Dusty (5) possesses the tactical speed necessary to factor early.
Longshots
Luna Linda (7) is capable of a late kick if the front-runners engage in a destructive speed duel.
Race 6 – Allowance Optional Claiming
Post Time
03:35PM
Pace Analysis
In this six-and-a-half-furlong allowance, a moderate to fast tempo is expected. Outside horses possess enough natural speed to clear the field, forcing inside runners to rate.
Key Contenders
You’reinthearmynow (7) narrowly missed last time and brings the highest speed figures into this race. Perfect Prankster (2) won over the track and distance recently and draws well inside.
Secondary Choices
Brownstone (4) has placed at this level and is expected to pass tired rivals in the stretch. Petesoldfashioned (6) shows great early speed metrics and will be tough to catch if unopposed.
Longshots
Winning Big (1) draws the rail and could sit a perfect pocket trip behind the leaders.
Race 7 – Claiming
Post Time
04:05PM
Pace Analysis
This one-mile turf route is heavily dictated by the 28-foot rail setting. Early speed is critical to avoid being caught wide during the initial turn.
Key Contenders
Shut Up Michael (IRE) (10) comes off a convincing win and has the class to overcome a difficult outside draw. Summer Lover (3) won last time out and rates as a major danger from a favorable inside post.
Secondary Choices
Vorpal (9) recently scored after leading all the way and will be dangerous if allowed to dictate the pace. Law Abiding (5) represents value and fits as a mid-pack runner poised to strike late.
Longshots
Delian League (1) holds the coveted rail position and cannot be ignored at a price.
Race 8 – Claiming
Post Time
04:40PM
Pace Analysis
The finale is a six-and-a-half-furlong sprint with a full field of ten. A frantic opening pace is expected, which will significantly favor deep closers as the leaders tire.
Key Contenders
Fort Langley (8) has strong claims after a close second last time out and benefits from an outside draw to avoid early traffic. El Diamante Negro (3) possesses tactical versatility and can sit just off the expected hot pace.
Secondary Choices
Weekend Flame (5) has competitive speed figures that fit this level well. Bad Sneakers (1) draws the rail and has the past form to contend if he finds a clear path.
Longshots
Our Bold Prince (7) is a veteran runner carrying light weight today and could factor into the finish.
Jockey and Trainer Notes
Manuel Americano has a full book of mounts today, including the highly-regarded You’reinthearmynow (Race 6). Karlo Lopez is another jockey to watch, particularly on runners in the claiming ranks. Trainer Juan Pablo Silva has a strong contingent entered, specifically in Race 6 where his runners are expected to control the tempo. Trainer Justin R Evans also brings several well-meant horses today that typically display sharp early speed.
