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The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
Turf Paradise presents an eight-race card on Tuesday, February 3, 2026, featuring a diverse mix of Quarter Horse sprints, maiden races, claiming events, and allowance contests. The card begins with two Arizona-bred Quarter Horse races before transitioning to six Thoroughbred events across dirt and turf surfaces. Post time for the first race is 1:15 PM MST, with the final race scheduled for approximately 4:34 PM. The card features competitive fields across multiple divisions, with claiming levels ranging from $4,500 to $20,000 and allowance conditions providing opportunities for horses moving up the class ladder. Three horses have been scratched: Warren’s C J from Race 3 (veterinarian), Lovely Lola from Race 4 (veterinarian), and Royal Dusty from Race 7 (stewards).
Weather and Track Conditions
Phoenix will enjoy ideal racing weather on February 3, with sunny skies, a high of 28°C (82°F), and a low of 10°C (50°F). No precipitation is expected, with 0 mm of rain forecasted, ensuring a fast dirt surface throughout the card. The favorable conditions should produce consistent track times and provide horses with tactical speed a significant advantage in sprint races. The turf course features rail placement at 14 feet for Races 3 and 7, which will slightly reduce the typical inside advantage but still favor horses drawn toward the rail. The seven-furlong turf course should play fair with this rail setting, though inside posts retain a measurable edge for ground-saving trips.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
Sprint races from four furlongs to 6.5 furlongs exhibit a strong inside bias favoring posts one through three, with early speed winning approximately 30-46% of these events. Post position nine historically produces minimal winners across all distances, while outside posts ten through twelve face nearly insurmountable disadvantages requiring exceptional early speed to overcome positional liabilities. Route races display more balanced post position distribution, with class, form cycles, and pace setup mattering more than draw. The turf course with rail placement at 14 feet still provides advantages to inside-drawn runners, though less pronounced than at zero feet, with approximately 39% of turf winners typically emerging from posts one and two.
RACE-BY-RACE ANALYSIS
Race 1 – Arizona Bred Quarter Horse Maiden (250Y Dirt)
Post Time: 1:15 PM | Purse: $14,300 | Field: 6
Pace Analysis
This 250-yard sprint will be decided in approximately 13-14 seconds of all-out sprinting. Break and early foot determine virtually everything. Horses with demonstrated gate speed and quick acceleration from a standing start hold decisive advantages. The six-horse field ensures a clean break will be essential.
Key Contenders
Lewie Jones draws the outside post six with professional rider Kevin Carbajal. The four-year-old gelding has demonstrated the ability to break alertly and should overcome the draw with a clean break.
Cha Chings Chick, an eight-year-old mare, draws post four with Mark Jasso aboard. The veteran mare’s extensive experience suggests she understands the game, though her maiden status at this advanced age raises questions.
Im Apollitcal Two represents Tim Holdaway’s barn from post two with Richard Birdrattler handling the reins. The inside draw provides a ground-saving path and eliminates traffic concerns. Second-time starters often show marked improvement in Quarter Horse racing.
Secondary Choices
One Famous Sissi draws the rail with Manuel Americano. The filly’s excellent draw with an experienced pilot creates value potential if gate speed is demonstrated.
Ps Ketels Legacy exits Angeladrian Dominguez’s barn with apprentice Jayden Ironeyes. The five-year-old mare draws post five, requiring significant early speed to overcome the mid-pack draw.
Race 2 – Arizona Bred Quarter Horse Allowance (300Y Dirt)
Post Time: 1:44 PM | Purse: $14,800 | Field: 6
Pace Analysis
The 300-yard allowance will unfold in approximately 15-16 seconds. This distance provides marginally more separation between horses than the 250-yard opener, allowing superior late-race acceleration to become a factor. Gate speed remains paramount, though horses with demonstrated ability to maintain velocity through the final yards can overcome slower breaks.
Key Contenders
Heat Commander represents consensus favorite based on form cycle and rider ability. The outside post six draw requires superior gate speed but eliminates traffic concerns through the abbreviated sprint. Americano’s experience at this level provides confidence.
One Apolitical Queen breaks from post two with Andres Osuna aboard for trainer Raymond Felix. The inside draw creates an ideal scenario for a three-year-old filly seeking her second career victory.
Block N Tell exits Matthew Fales’ barn with Blake Nunnally handling the reins. The rail draw creates an ideal scenario for a three-year-old gelding, though Nunnally must deliver a clean break to capitalize.
Secondary Choices
Jess Revvin It Up represents Diego Cervantes with Mark Jasso from post three. The mid-pack draw provides balance, allowing the gelding to establish his preferred path immediately.
One Famous Tail draws post five with Brandon Mendez Guevara. The outside-middle draw requires early commitment from the three-year-old filly.
Race 3 – Maiden Optional Claiming Turf (7.5 Furlongs)
Post Time: 2:13 PM | Purse: $17,000 | Field: 6 | Rail: 14 Feet
Pace Analysis
The seven-furlong turf maiden allows tactical positioning flexibility through the opening half-mile before races develop through the far turn and stretch run. The rail placement at 14 feet creates ground-saving advantages for inside runners. Expect honest early fractions as several horses demonstrate comfort pressing pace or securing stalking positions.
Key Contenders
Goodfella (IRE) returns to the turf after nearly catching winners in his previous start. This six-year-old gelding makes his second appearance on grass, and the surface switch appears ideally suited to his running style and pedigree. The class advantage over maiden rivals is significant.
Jimmy B brings exceptional turf breeding credentials with Tomlinson ratings of 342/346. The rail draw with early speed creates the potential for an uncontested lead or comfortable stalking trip. Breeding suggests this son of More Than Ready will appreciate the surface switch.
Rowan August returns to maiden company after facing winners while encountering traffic difficulties. The return to maiden competition with a clean journey could produce a career-best performance.
Secondary Choices
Verdi represents Frank Lucarelli with Kiaman McGregor aboard. The four-year-old gelding shows gradual improvement through recent efforts.
Mr. Kuntata and Fleet Brotato both represent Earl Baze II’s stable. Both prefer different tactical approaches with varying speed patterns.
Race 4 – Allowance Optional Claiming Fillies & Mares (6 Furlongs Dirt)
Post Time: 2:42 PM | Purse: $19,000 | Field: 5
Pace Analysis
The six-furlong sprint creates an honest early pace scenario with several entrants possessing tactical speed. Early speed wins 30-46% of sprint races at Turf Paradise, making gate break and first-quarter positioning critical. Horses drawn inside possess measurable advantages for ground-saving trips, while outside runners must demonstrate superior early speed.
Key Contenders
Jersey Sunset represents the most intriguing contender based on recent form and value potential. This six-year-old mare shocked at 35-1 last out while earning a career-best Beyer Speed Figure. Sharp recent works suggest the previous performance was legitimate rather than a fluke.
Squeeze the Day enters the race in excellent form with three solid races together while demonstrating preference for the main track. This four-year-old filly represents Kevin Eikleberry’s successful stable and draws top weight of 124 pounds based on recent success.
Big Pop represents Robertino Diodoro’s powerful stable. This five-year-old mare brings class and experience, with recent workouts suggesting the mare is training sharply.
Secondary Choices
I’m Telling Mom draws the rail with Manuel Americano. The five-year-old mare carries 122 pounds with the weight allowance and possesses the early speed to capitalize on the inside draw.
Gypsy Lynn represents Diodoro’s second entry with Orlando Mojica. The seven-year-old mare brings extensive experience and carries reduced weight of 122 pounds.
Race 5 – Claiming Fillies and Mares (5.5 Furlongs Dirt)
Post Time: 3:10 PM | Purse: $9,500 | Field: 8
Pace Analysis
The 5.5-furlong sprint demands explosive early speed and sustained drive through the abbreviated stretch. The eight-horse field ensures honest early fractions. Post position significance amplifies dramatically at this distance, with inside runners enjoying measurable advantages. Closers face virtually insurmountable disadvantages unless early speed collapses from suicidal fractions.
Key Contenders
Cestrand represents the morning-line favorite based on tactical speed and recent form improvements. This five-year-old mare stumbled at the start two back and encountered traffic complications last out. The combination of racing luck and form cycle suggests a breakthrough performance is imminent.
Shanghai Barbie nearly caught the winner two races back and returns to the distance that produced her best effort. This ten-year-old mare brings extensive experience and draws post four with Karlo Lopez aboard.
Kaely’s Candy presents an intriguing value proposition as a nine-year-old maiden making just her tenth career start. She passed runners convincingly in her most recent start, demonstrating improved form and tactical development.
Secondary Choices
Lotsa Steel brings solid recent form from post three. The five-year-old mare draws a favorable inside post that guarantees a ground-saving journey.
Loop of Henle exits Juan Pablo Silva’s barn with Francisco Garcia from post six. The four-year-old filly must break alertly to avoid the wide trip costly at this distance.
Race 6 – Maiden Claiming (5 Furlongs Dirt)
Post Time: 3:38 PM | Purse: $8,500 | Field: 9
Pace Analysis
The five-furlong maiden claiming event creates a straightforward sprint where early speed and gate break determine the outcome. The nine-horse field ensures competitive early fractions. The abbreviated distance eliminates late-running tactics, requiring horses to secure position through the opening quarter while maintaining stamina through the stretch.
Key Contenders
Trydent puts races together for the first time in his career, demonstrating form cycle improvement at precisely the right moment. This four-year-old gelding possesses tactical speed and draws a favorable middle post with retained rider Allyssa Morales.
Poco Yo represents Jorge Maravilla with Blake Nunnally from post five. This four-year-old gelding just missed in his last outing and demonstrates improving speed figures with each start. The gelding prefers shortened sprints.
Smile Dont Wink draws the outside post nine with Karlo Lopez. This four-year-old gelding brings tactical speed and faces the disadvantage of the far outside draw, but can sit off early speeds while avoiding inside traffic.
Secondary Choices
Suave Vron draws the rail with Frank Reyes. The four-year-old gelding must break alertly to capitalize on the advantageous position.
Lord Anthem breaks from post two with Kiaman McGregor for Jack McCartney. The gelding benefits from an inside draw providing ground-saving opportunities.
Race 7 – Claiming Turf Mile (Fillies and Mares)
Post Time: 4:06 PM | Purse: $11,500 | Field: 6 | Rail: 14 Feet
Pace Analysis
The one-mile turf claiming event allows tactical positioning flexibility through the opening half-mile before races develop through the far turn and stretch run. The rail placement at 14 feet creates ground-saving advantages for inside runners. Closers must demonstrate sufficient tactical speed to secure reasonable positions through the early stages.
Key Contenders
Ellie Moore (IRE) represents the consensus best bet based on superior turf form and tactical preferences. This five-year-old mare demonstrates marked improvement on grass surfaces, with Louisiana Downs turf efforts fitting perfectly at this level. The surface switch eliminates dirt concerns while playing to her strengths.
Kinky Moon brings sharp recent training suggesting trainer confidence in the surface switch. This six-year-old mare demonstrates the ability to pass runners late and benefits from favorable race flow, though turf racing is unproven.
Ride Elbow Ranch brings tactical speed for Robertino Diodoro with Orlando Mojica. This four-year-old filly won previously on turf before dropping in class. The outside post seven draw may force a stalking trip rather than contested early lead, which could benefit the filly.
Secondary Choices
Pink Channel draws the rail with Kiaman McGregor. The eight-year-old mare brings extensive experience and draws the ideal inside post at 14 feet.
Mark of Victory exits Valorie Lund’s stable with Manuel Americano from post three. The six-year-old mare brings modest recent form but secures professional representation.
Race 8 – Claiming Fillies and Mares (6.5 Furlongs Dirt)
Post Time: 4:34 PM | Purse: $13,500 | Field: 9
Pace Analysis
The 6.5-furlong claiming sprint creates competitive balance across the nine-horse field. Multiple horses possess tactical speed, ensuring honest early fractions. The extended sprint distance provides sufficient time for horses to establish position while maintaining energy reserves for the stretch drive. Post position advantages favor inside draws at this distance.
Key Contenders
Bango Gal represents an intriguing value proposition based on recent form cycle improvements. This four-year-old filly required 14 starts to break her maiden, but horses often develop a taste for winning after finally reaching the winner’s circle. Alex Cruz maintains a 16% win rate for trainer Rafael Barraza.
It Happens makes her second start at Turf Paradise after shipping in from another circuit. Second-time starters at new tracks often show marked improvement. This four-year-old filly tries this claiming level for the second time.
Max’s Maxine demonstrates remarkable consistency, finishing second in her last four starts. This five-year-old mare puts three races together and possesses an even running style perfectly suited to 6.5 furlongs. The consistent placings suggest a breakthrough victory looms.
Secondary Choices
Rockbar exits a productive race with four of nine returning to win. This five-year-old mare draws post three with Jose Mariano Asencio aboard.
Que Bella Luna draws post one with apprentice Talliyah Timentwa. The five-year-old mare carries 119 pounds with the apprentice allowance and benefits from the rail draw.
Jockey Notes
Manuel Americano rides throughout the card with solid recent form and multiple in-the-money finishes. The experienced rider excels at maximizing tactical advantages from various post positions. Orlando Mojica sits one victory shy of 3,000 career wins, creating professional urgency on every mount, with a 20% win rate in 2024. Frank Alvarado brings tactical skill in route races where pace judgment proves critical. Blake Nunnally maintains a 5.9% win rate at Turf Paradise with 38.2% in-the-money percentage. Kiaman McGregor handles five mounts with an 8.19% win rate from 525 rides producing 43 victories.
Trainer Notes
Robertino Diodoro brings three horses to the card and represents the most accomplished trainer on the grounds with over 2,500 career victories. His entries in Race 4 and Race 7 represent legitimate contenders. Kevin Eikleberry trains two horses with recent statistics showing a 21% strike rate. His runners in Races 3 and 4 possess tactical advantages. Michael McCarthy trains Goodfella in Race 3 and brings elite credentials, signaling significant ability advantage. When top trainers compete at lower levels, the class preparation advantages are evident.
