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The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

Today’s eight-race card at Turf Paradise features a mix of Quarter Horse dashes, dirt sprints, and turf routes. The program begins at 1:15 PM and is highlighted by a competitive Allowance Optional Claiming event in the 4th race and a turf mile for fillies and mares in the 7th. With the meet well underway, established track trends and handicapping data provide a solid foundation for today’s analysis.

Weather and Track Conditions

The forecast calls for clear skies and mild temperatures in Phoenix. The dirt track is expected to be fast, and the turf course should be firm. The rail on the turf course is set at about 21 feet, which typically tightens the turns and emphasizes the importance of saving ground.

Track Bias Analysis

• Dirt Sprints: A distinct bias favors early speed. Horses that can clear the field or sit just off the pace have been winning frequently. Inside posts are fair, but the middle lanes (posts 3-6) have been productive.
• Dirt Routes: Front-runners hold an edge, though winners are increasingly coming from just off the pace if fractions are contested.
• Turf Routes (Rail at 21 ft): Ground loss is a major determinant. Horses breaking from outside posts in two-turn routes often face wide trips. Inside draws or horses with tactical speed to secure rail position before the first turn are preferred. Closers fare better here than on dirt, provided they find a clean path.

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Race-by-Race Analysis

1st Race – 350 Yards Dirt

Pace Analysis: A scramble is expected in this dash. U R Bella (1) and Strictly a Cowboy (9) are likely to send hard from opposite ends of the gate.

• Key Contenders: U R Bella (1) draws the rail and has shown flashes of speed; if she breaks cleanly, she has the shortest path. Strictly a Cowboy (9) benefits from the outside post, often advantageous in straightaway sprints, and gets a positive jockey change.
• Secondary Choices: Relentless Trick (2) is a consistent gelding who can finish strong if he avoids traffic trouble.
• Longshots: Invinsable (8) has faced tougher company previously and could surprise if he recaptures old form.

2nd Race – 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt

Pace Analysis: Abundant speed is present, with First Call (1) and Pop d’Oro (2) both naturally quick from inside posts. A potential duel could set up a stalker, but inside speed remains dangerous.

• Key Contenders: First Call (1) is the speed of the speed from the rail and comes from the high-percentage Silva barn. Pop d’Oro (2) is the class of the field and can press or sit just off the leader.
• Secondary Choices: Silverbullitbadger (3) is a gritty, consistent runner who will be the first to pounce if the leaders tire.
• Longshots: Arizona Jeremy (5) is a veteran capable of clunking up for a share if the pace collapses.

3rd Race – 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt

Pace Analysis: Hit Scene (1) and Fleet of Flags (4) are the primary pace factors. The pace should be honest, favoring horses on or near the lead.

• Key Contenders: Tygra (2) has excellent tactical speed and should secure a perfect stalking trip. Hit Scene (1) could steal the race if he clears from the rail without excessive pressure.
• Secondary Choices: Fleet of Flags (4) is a consistent check-earner with the stamina to fight on even if forced wide.
• Longshots: Chasing Rain (7) has back class but must overcome a wide draw and potential ground loss.

4th Race – 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt

Pace Analysis: A competitive pace is expected with Lansdowne (1), U.S. Army (2), and Coastal Jazz (5) all showing speed. This 6 1/2 furlong distance may test the stamina of the pure front-runners.

• Key Contenders: U.S. Army (2) is a classy runner who doesn’t need the lead to win and faces a manageable group. Lansdowne (1) is the speed of the speed but risks a duel.
• Secondary Choices: Jin Tong (3) is an interesting value play who will track the top two and close if the pace heats up.
• Longshots: Miner League (4) is a closer who needs a pace meltdown to reach the winner’s circle.

5th Race – 1 Mile Dirt

Pace Analysis: Inside speed is favored. Pleaseusetheportal (1) should dictate the tempo from the rail, with Without Equal (5) likely stalking.

• Key Contenders: Pleaseusetheportal (1) is the logical choice, saving ground on both turns. Without Equal (5) is in good form and fits the class level well.
• Secondary Choices: Limited Heatwave (6) is a veteran dropping in class who remains competitive.
• Longshots: Supermax (9) has late speed and could pick up pieces if the pace collapses, despite the wide draw.

6th Race – 1 Mile Dirt

Pace Analysis: A potentially sloppy pace in this low-level claiming mile. Mister K (1) and Fort Langley (2) should go from the inside.

• Key Contenders: Fort Langley (2) has been knocking on the door and can work out a trip without needing the lead. Mister K (1) is the primary speed but can be vulnerable late.
• Secondary Choices: El Siete Leguas (3) is a grinder who consistently earns checks.
• Longshots: Ronamo (8) is a veteran who occasionally pops with a big effort in weak fields.

7th Race – 1 Mile Turf

Pace Analysis: With the rail out, saving ground is critical. Viewers Discretion (1) and Catalina Cocktail (2) have ideal draws to secure position.

• Key Contenders: Viewers Discretion (1) should save ground and use her turn of foot late. Catalina Cocktail (2) is the main threat, running well against decent company.
• Secondary Choices: Bangie Go (7) has speed and could steal it if the inside horses are too passive.
• Longshots: Mastery Kat (3) could improve significantly with a ground-saving trip.

8th Race – 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt

Pace Analysis: A fast pace is expected to close the card. Guide My Steps (1) has the rail speed, with Flyin By (3) also showing quickness.

• Key Contenders: Guide My Steps (1) benefits from the rail advantage and should hold position. Trouble N Paradise (2) will likely track the speed closely.
• Secondary Choices: Flyin By (3) is a consistent mare who gives an honest effort every time.
• Longshots: Kamikaze Blue (4) is a steady closer who adds value if the top three burn each other out.