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The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
Today features a 10-race card under the lights at Turfway Park, highlighted by the Dust Commander Stakes in Race 9. The Tapeta surface generally plays fairly, but a bias often emerges favoring mid-pack stalkers making sweeping moves on the far turn. Saving ground and tipping out for the stretch drive is a high-percentage winning profile.
Weather and Track Conditions
The weather features cloudy daytime conditions with a high of 56 degrees, a low of 31 degrees, 55 percent humidity, and winds from the south at 7 mph. As temperatures drop into the evening, the Tapeta surface may tighten up, potentially favoring speed horses who can glide over the cooler, compacted track.
Consensus Picks Methodology
The contenders listed in the race-by-race breakdown below represent the consensus picks from expert handicappers. They have been placed in their own distinct sections for clarity and ease of reading.
Race 1
Post Time
05:55 PM
Pace Analysis
Expect a sharp early tempo in this 6-furlong sprint. My Mister Perfect should dictate terms from the rail, with Greatdayforhockey and Patronage pressing, setting up a mid-pack stalker.
Key Contenders
Delta Tau Chi draws an outside post keeping him clear of traffic. Greatdayforhockey comes in with solid form and should relish the synthetic surface.
Secondary Choices
My Mister Perfect possesses the rail advantage and early foot. Zen It has been knocking on the door in similar spots.
Longshots
It Takes a Cowboy gets in light and could surprise if the pace melts down.
Race 2
Post Time
06:25 PM
Pace Analysis
Going a flat mile, the pace should be moderate. Tone of Silence and Pickle Shoes should flash early speed, favoring those who can save ground and pounce late.
Key Contenders
Sand Queen draws the inside post with tactical speed. Pickle Shoes looks well-spotted and should benefit from a forwardly placed trip.
Secondary Choices
Tone of Silence can contend if able to clear early. Birkin Elegance gets a weight break and fits this class level.
Longshots
Lil’ Hottie could clunk up for a minor award if the pace is faster than anticipated.
Race 3
Post Time
06:55 PM
Pace Analysis
At 6 and a half furlongs, Our Shenanigan and Taqdeer should vie for the early lead, creating an honest pace that sets up well for a stalker.
Key Contenders
Our Shenanigan has sharp early speed and looks strictly the one to catch. Taqdeer brings consistent speed figures and will apply pressure from the start.
Secondary Choices
Low Moon has appealing tactical speed for an ideal stalking trip. One Front War drops in and could wake up with the class relief.
Longshots
Springtimeprincess could add value if she can translate her dirt form to the Tapeta surface.
Race 4
Post Time
07:25 PM
Pace Analysis
A full field of older claimers going a mile guarantees a scramble. Silver Quarters and P K Wood have early foot, but the pace might be softer than it looks.
Key Contenders
Silver Quarters is a battle-tested veteran who should sit a perfect trip. Nip N Tuck fits well at this claiming level and will be rolling late.
Secondary Choices
Creek draws outside but has the tactical speed to overcome the post. Grimes has been steady and can fill out the exotics.
Longshots
Company You Keep gets a significant weight break and might outrun his odds.
Race 5
Post Time
07:55 PM
Pace Analysis
This maiden special weight at a mile features unexposed types. Light Cav and Bold Stand have natural speed, but expect a moderate pace.
Key Contenders
Light Cav looks primed for a big effort based on workouts. Bold Stand ships in and his pedigree suggests the synthetic route will suit him perfectly.
Secondary Choices
Silver Sniper draws the rail and will save all the ground. Mac Gowan has the right connections to be dangerous right out of the box.
Longshots
Bhatia could offer value if he can break cleanly and secure a forward position early.
Race 6
Post Time
08:25 PM
Pace Analysis
This claiming mile will likely be chaotic. Ghost Prince and Redhill will aggressively seek the lead, creating a brisk pace that favors closers.
Key Contenders
Ghost Prince drops to a logical level and has the speed to dictate the race shape. Knicks Gate should appreciate the class relief today.
Secondary Choices
Enjoy the Cracken gets the rail and can save ground throughout. Tap the Candy is a reliable closer who will be picking up the pieces late.
Longshots
Facenda has back class and might wake up at a price in this softer spot.
Race 7
Post Time
08:55 PM
Pace Analysis
At 6 and a half furlongs, Commanded and Salt will ensure an honest pace. True sprinters will try to carry their speed over the extra half-furlong.
Key Contenders
Bellavinino has tactical speed and the class to handle this group. Salt has solid back form that makes her a major player.
Secondary Choices
Commanded has sharp early foot and will be dangerous if she clears the field easily. Saphira is a consistent performer who always seems to fire.
Longshots
Kiss Me Again draws the rail and could sit a golden trip at a nice price.
Race 8
Post Time
09:25 PM
Pace Analysis
This one-mile test will feature a strategic pace. Bread to Run and Glamorama possess early speed, and an early duel could set the race up for a closer.
Key Contenders
Low Key in Love has the right running style to stalk the pace and pounce. Appellate has the class and tactical ability to overcome an outside draw.
Secondary Choices
Glamorama will be dangerous on the lead and could wire the field. Sol d’Oro is a consistent runner who fits perfectly at this level.
Longshots
Bijou Baby has grinding speed and could find the frame at double-digit odds.
Race 9
Post Time
09:55 PM
Pace Analysis
The Dust Commander Stakes at 1 and 1 sixteenth miles will demand stamina. Encino and Sugoi are the primary pace actors, potentially setting things up for a deep closer.
Key Contenders
Encino has tremendous tactical speed and is the class of the field. Honor Marie will appreciate the distance and should be rolling late.
Secondary Choices
Smokey Mandate knows the Turfway track well and will be competitive. Sugoi is a gritty veteran who will make them work for it on the front end.
Longshots
Native Shaman possesses a powerful late kick that could surprise if the pace is hot.
Race 10
Post Time
10:25 PM
Pace Analysis
The nightcap is a one-mile event with an honest pace expected from Tacit Agreement and Nancy Mak, setting up well for a stalker.
Key Contenders
Cady Hill drops into the maiden claiming ranks for class relief. Stay Beautiful draws the inside post and belongs with these.
Secondary Choices
Sylvette gets a weight break and should be forwardly placed throughout. Lady Faye has room to improve and could step up in this spot.
Longshots
Scary Jerry could add extreme value to the exotics with a clean trip from the outside.
