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The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
The Monday, February 16th card at Will Rogers Downs features a competitive eight-race slate predominantly composed of claiming and allowance events. The program offers a strong emphasis on Oklahoma-bred runners, providing a local flavor to the afternoon’s festivities. Field sizes are robust, particularly in the later races, suggesting that tactical positioning and navigating through traffic will be critical components for success today.
The weather forecast for Claremore indicates a beautiful afternoon for racing. Conditions are mostly sunny with a high of 67°F. While humidity remains around 62%, the lack of precipitation ensures the main dirt track will be rated as fast. Southerly winds reaching 18 mph could impact the horses as they move down the backstretch and into the final turn, potentially favoring those who can tuck in and find cover behind the leaders.
Historically, Will Rogers Downs is known for a slight speed bias, particularly in sprint distances of five to six furlongs. Given the fast track conditions expected today, front-runners and those positioned on or near the rail are likely to have an advantage. However, in the route races at one mile, the long homestretch allows for patient riders to pick their spots, provided the early fractions are honest.
In the 1st Race, a five-furlong sprint, the pace is expected to be quick with Baseball Politics and Runhappy d’Oro likely to engage early. Baseball Politics brings veteran class to the field, while Runhappy d’Oro looks to use the inside post to his advantage. Twentyone N Change serves as the primary secondary choice, capable of closing if the speed duel tires the leaders.
The 2nd Race features the afternoon’s most significant standout in Washita Valley. This five-furlong Oklahoma-bred contest should see Washita Valley dictating the tempo. K Q Spirit, coming off a strong maiden win, remains the primary threat, while the light-weighted Howboutcha is the preferred secondary option. Work Zone is the lone longshot of note if the favorites fail to fire.
In the 3rd Race, the transition to a one-mile route puts the spotlight on Copper Magician. Scott Young’s trainee has the tactical speed to sit just off the pace, likely to be set by Uptono Buena. Stonington remains a solid secondary choice, while Crab Crunch could surprise at longer odds if he handles the distance transition well.
The 4th Race for fillies and mares centers on the battle between Because and All Aflutter. Because is the consensus pick among handicappers for her consistency, while All Aflutter benefits from class relief and a top-tier jockey. Accelerate Judy is the secondary choice with a weight advantage, and Natusia remains a longshot to watch in the exotics.
The 5th Race is a wide-open maiden claiming event. Gospel Blossom is the key contender due to her experience edge. Ruby’s Posse is the main secondary threat, having shown flashes of talent in recent starts. Zayla and Commander Chick are both longshots that could factor in if they can secure an early lead on the rail.
Race 6 sees Misses Millie as the one to beat in a five and a half furlong sprint. She is flanked by the consistent Mystical Code, who serves as the primary secondary choice. Thundermunnyball is a key pace factor from the inside, while Gospel Precious offers longshot appeal for those looking for a price.
The 7th Race feature event at one mile highlights Eireann, who has shown a penchant for this track. So Jordan is the primary secondary choice, benefiting from the services of David Cabrera. So Jacksann and the longshot Catale Winemixer round out the competitive field, both possessing enough speed to influence the outcome.
The 8th Race finale is a deep one-mile claiming race. Chi Town Road is the key contender, drawing the rail and looking to repeat his solid recent form. Mr Oklahoma is the main secondary choice for the Young barn. Momissioner and the longshot Leviathan Axe provide depth to the field, with the latter often outrunning his odds at this distance.
Jockey David Cabrera and trainer Scott Young appear poised for a successful afternoon, as they both hold strong hands across multiple races. Leandro D. Goncalves also has a high-quality book of mounts that should keep him in the hunt for the leading rider title.
