Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet for Tampa Bay Downs – Racing News and Analysis for March 13, 2026


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The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

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Tampa Bay Downs offers a nine-race Friday card on March 13, 2026, mixing dirt sprints, maiden claimers, and several turf routes that emphasize stamina and trip. The opening race is a seven-furlong allowance optional claimer, while the rest of the card blends lower-level claimers and maiden claimers on both surfaces, with the turf routes (races 5, 7, and 9) especially influenced by ground-saving trips and late kicks.

Dry, comfortable weather with mid-70s to near 80 degrees, partly sunny skies, and moderate winds is expected in the Tampa Bay area, with little threat of rain during the racing window. The main track should play fast, and the turf course firm, consistent with recent conditions at the meet. Tampa Bay Downs dirt is generally neutral, without a strong rail or outside bias, while turf routes continue to show a preference toward inside and mid posts and off-the-pace runners.

Long-term and meet-specific data show that Tampa Bay Downs dirt sprints distribute winners fairly across inside and outside posts, with trip and pace more important than draw. Dirt routes display a modest edge for posts 1–3 due to ground-saving advantages at two turns. The turf course, especially at route distances, favors inside to mid posts (roughly posts 1–5), and results over the last seasons indicate a pronounced tilt toward off-the-pace and closing styles rather than wire-to-wire winners.

Race 1 – Allowance Optional Claiming – 7 Furlongs Dirt

Field: Troops (1), Canuto (2), Doroteo (3), Jonathan's Song (4), Mary's Lad (IRE) (5), Develop Product (6), Embrace My Uncle (7).

Pace projects as honest, with Troops (1) likely to secure a tactical, pace-controlling position from the rail and several others capable of stalking. Troops (1) and Mary's Lad (IRE) (5) are the key contenders, with Troops (1) offering tactical speed and rail position and Mary's Lad (IRE) (5) bringing class and late kick under a top local jockey. Embrace My Uncle (7) and Canuto (2) rate as secondary options, while Jonathan's Song (4) and Develop Product (6) are fringe players with some upside if fully sound; Doroteo (3) is a longshot who could clunk up for a minor share if pace is stronger than expected.

Race 2 – Claiming – 6 Furlongs Dirt

Field: Russian Hammer (1), Float On (2), My Man Woody (3), Imtakinittothebank (4), Ronic (5), Auger (6), Star Kanoo (7), Eightysixchevy (8), Limit Up (9), Machismo (10).

This older-gelding sprint is pace-rich, with Russian Hammer (1), My Man Woody (3), and Eightysixchevy (8) prominent early and several others close up. Limit Up (9) and Float On (2) stand out as key contenders due to their stalk-and-pounce profiles and strong rider/trainer combinations. My Man Woody (3) is the most appealing of the pure pace types. Secondary choices include Russian Hammer (1), Eightysixchevy (8), and Machismo (10), each capable if they secure clean trips. Imtakinittothebank (4), Ronic (5), Auger (6), and Star Kanoo (7) are longer-priced runners more likely to figure underneath if the pace collapses.

Race 3 – Claiming – 6 Furlongs Dirt

Field: Newyearsblockparty (1), Osprey (2), Supreme Song (3), Estilo Magico (4), Circle Back Jack (5), Reverend Moon (6), Ace Ventura (CHI) (7), Happy Instead (8), Mithridates (9), Lee Ann's Warrior (10).

Another contested sprint with expected fast early fractions, led by Circle Back Jack (5), Reverend Moon (6), and Lee Ann's Warrior (10). Circle Back Jack (5), Reverend Moon (6), and Happy Instead (8) profile as key contenders, combining pace or tactical ability with solid local connections. Supreme Song (3) and Estilo Magico (4) are secondary options who can sit just off the leaders and capitalize if the front line softens. Newyearsblockparty (1), Ace Ventura (CHI) (7), Osprey (2), Mithridates (9), and Lee Ann's Warrior (10) serve as deeper exotics types or longshots depending on how the pace unfolds and whether they can secure favorable trips.

Race 4 – Maiden Claiming – 5.5 Furlongs Dirt (Fillies and Mares)

Field: Queen Of Spirits (1), Nana Moon (2), Gone A Lil West (3), Tranquila Ruby (4), Classy Kay (5), E Complicato (6), Miss Uproar (7), Blue Ice (8), She's Our D N A (9), Jenn Sweet Jenn (10), That Thing You Do (11), Princess Honor (12).

This older-filly-and-mare maiden claimer should feature moderate but not blistering early fractions. She's Our D N A (9) is a key contender based on post, rider, and likely tactical speed, with E Complicato (6) and Classy Kay (5) close behind as strong threats from their central draws. Jenn Sweet Jenn (10), That Thing You Do (11), Blue Ice (8), and Tranquila Ruby (4) are credible secondary choices who can benefit from clean outside or mid trips. Miss Uproar (7) merits some attention given the barn's intentions to get her into a suitable spot. Queen Of Spirits (1), Nana Moon (2), Gone A Lil West (3), and Princess Honor (12) appear more like longshots, needing significant improvement or a favorable pace meltdown.​

Race 5 – Maiden Claiming – 1 Mile Turf

Field: Last Bottle (1), Shinyhappygroovy (2), Spurious (3), Dominator C. (4), Senor Resplandor (5), Resurgo (6), Madcap (7), Neostar (8), Grand Liam (9), Virgin Island Nice (10), America Lives (11), Xiao Long (12), Great Hunt (13).

With 13 entrants and Tampa's turf bias favoring off-the-pace runners, this maiden turf mile should produce an honest early pace and a closing finish. Resurgo (6) and Shinyhappygroovy (2) are key contenders, pairing live riders with suitable trip profiles on the turf. Neostar (8), Last Bottle (1), and America Lives (11) are strong secondary options, especially Last Bottle (1) after a class drop and America Lives (11) as a consistent grinder. Spurious (3), Dominator C. (4), Madcap (7), Grand Liam (9), Virgin Island Nice (10), Xiao Long (12), and Great Hunt (13) are longshots or deeper options, some with turf-intended patterns indicated by prior off-turf or steward scratches.

Race 6 – Maiden Claiming – 7 Furlongs Dirt (3-year-olds)

Field: Night Raven (1), Strong Temptation (2), Chance On Me (3), Fast Prince (4), Turbo Fire (5), Lighting Arrow (6), Roux Bucherro (7), Cousin Vinny (8), Runaway Rooster (9).

This three-year-old maiden claimer should unfold with a lively pace as multiple inexperienced runners vie for early position. Turbo Fire (5), Roux Bucherro (7), and Strong Temptation (2) stand out as key contenders based on likely pace position, connections, and distance suitability. Night Raven (1), Lighting Arrow (6), and Cousin Vinny (8) are secondary choices who figure to sit just off the leaders and may benefit if the frontrunners tire. Chance On Me (3), Fast Prince (4), and Runaway Rooster (9) appear more speculative and project as longshots, though Fast Prince (4) and Runaway Rooster (9) have entry histories suggesting connections have been seeking appropriate spots.

Race 7 – Claiming – 1 Mile Turf (N2L)

Field: Alrasikh (1), Intolerable (2), Boy O' Boy (3), Ramesses (4), Moralito (5), North Ship (6), Sky Masterson (7), Ragman (8), Deportivo (9), Mungo (10), Mr Business (11), El Bailador (12), Starship Magellan (13).

In this N2L turf mile, pace should be solid, led by Moralito (5), Sky Masterson (7), and Deportivo (9), with others tracking closely. Moralito (5), Deportivo (9), and Alrasikh (1) are key contenders, combining favorable posts with strong rider and trainer profiles in Tampa turf routes. Ragman (8), North Ship (6), and Sky Masterson (7) are important secondary choices, each fitting the mid-pack or late-running style that matches the turf bias. Mr Business (11), Intolerable (2), Boy O' Boy (3), Mungo (10), El Bailador (12), and Starship Magellan (13) make up the longshot tier, with some coming off off-turf or also-eligible placements that hint at long-standing turf intentions.

Race 8 – Claiming – 6 Furlongs Dirt

Field: Power Attack (1), Toddchero (2), Mor Spring Spirit (3), Raydar Control (4), Samurai Prince (5), Rainbow's Pride (6), Go Otto Go (7), Rocket Dragon (8), Capture The Time (9).

This high-end claiming sprint is loaded with pace, as Power Attack (1), Raydar Control (4), Samurai Prince (5), and Go Otto Go (7) all figure to be forward early. Go Otto Go (7), Rainbow's Pride (6), and Power Attack (1) emerge as key contenders, with Go Otto Go (7) and Power Attack (1) as likely pace players and Rainbow's Pride (6) as the main closer into a projected hot early tempo. Rocket Dragon (8) and Toddchero (2) are secondary options that have been scratched from higher-level races and now find a more realistic spot. Mor Spring Spirit (3), Samurai Prince (5), and Capture The Time (9) project as longshots who can improve if the pace scenario or track profile tilts in their favor.

Race 9 – Claiming – 1 1/16 Miles Turf (Fillies and Mares N2L)

Field: Promaja (1), Kuku (2), High Hearts (3), Major Mayhem (4), Eazy Whirled (5), Americandreammaker (6), Jaantje (7), Apple Shake Shake (8), D'argento Bolt (9), Cocktail Kisses (10), My Gal (11), Patient Fi (12), Awesome Campaign (13), Better Have Cash (14).

This large N2L filly-and-mare turf route should feature honest early fractions, with several inside and middle posts attending the pace and many closers lined up behind. Americandreammaker (6), Awesome Campaign (13), and Cocktail Kisses (10) are key contenders, all well-regarded in consensus assessments and pairing strong connections with ideal off-the-pace or pressing styles. Apple Shake Shake (8), Eazy Whirled (5), Promaja (1), Kuku (2), and High Hearts (3) form the main secondary tier, each capable of contending for top or minor shares depending on trip. Major Mayhem (4), Jaantje (7), My Gal (11), Patient Fi (12), D'argento Bolt (9), and Better Have Cash (14) populate the longshot group; several, notably Jaantje (7), High Hearts (3), D'argento Bolt (9), and Better Have Cash (14), have prior scratch histories or off-turf entries suggesting specific turf or condition preferences that may lead to improved efforts when circumstances align.

Overall, the day's profile emphasizes tactical speed on dirt and patient, ground-saving off-the-pace trips on turf, with key jockeys like Samy Camacho, Sonny Leon, Daniel Centeno, and Antonio Gallardo, and trainers such as Darien Rodriguez, Kathleen O'Connell, Jon Arnett, and Michelle Hemingway holding multiple live chances throughout the card.

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