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Welcome to a massive day of racing at Sam Houston Race Park for Saturday, February 14. Today features an outstanding 12-race card highlighted by a series of high-purse stakes events for Texas-accredited runners, including the Jim’s Orbit Stakes, Two Altazano Stakes, Miss Bluebonnet Turf Stakes, David E. Hooper Stakes, and the Sunlit Song Turf Stakes. Fields are full and competitive, promising excellent value for horseplayers looking to capitalize on deep exotic pools. Several key scratches have reshaped the pace dynamics in multiple races, requiring adjustments to early handicapping strategies.
Weather and Track Conditions
Current forecasts indicate favorable racing conditions with cool, comfortable temperatures typical for mid-February in Texas. Without real-time updates to the contrary, we anticipate a fast main dirt track and a firm turf course. The turf course at Sam Houston generally plays fair when firm, though saving ground around the turns remains a significant advantage in route races. The dirt surface has historically maintained a consistent profile under dry conditions.
Track Bias and Post Position Bias
Sam Houston’s dirt track often exhibits a slight bias toward early speed, particularly in sprint races at five and a half and six furlongs. Horses that can establish early position or dictate terms on the front end typically hold a distinct edge. On the turf course, the inside posts have a high percentage of success, especially in routes where going wide on the sweeping turns can cost valuable lengths. Handicappers should upgrade horses drawn inside on the grass and those possessing tactical gate speed on the main track.
1st Race – Sam Houston – Claiming 1 Mile Dirt
Post Time
01:00 PM
Pace Analysis
With King of Grace and Adger scratched, the complexion of this opening route changes. Cause Im the King draws the rail and possesses the early foot to control the tempo. Bradix has tactical speed and should get a clean stalking trip from the outside post.
Key Contenders
Cause Im the King (1) gets a massive advantage with the inside draw and the scratch of other early speed. Rivera Santos rides for Alejandro Baldillez Jr., and they should be prominent early. He’s Charming (4) hails from the hot barn of Jayde J. Gelner and gets the services of Lane Luzzi, making him a major threat in the stretch.
Secondary Choices
Bradix (7) moves up in consideration with the scratches, likely sitting just off the pace and getting first run at the leaders. Mucho Macho Cam (5) drops into a favorable spot and could pick up the pieces if the early pace is faster than anticipated.
Longshots
Moro Legend (3) is an eight-year-old veteran who knows his way around this oval but will need to turn back the clock to reach the winner’s circle against this group.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
The inside speed is the most reliable angle here. Building tickets around the rail horse while using the Gelner runner underneath offers the most logical path to a return.
Selections
Win: Cause Im the King (1) – 45% confidence
Place: He’s Charming (4) – 30% confidence
Show: Bradix (7) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Mucho Macho Cam (5) – 10% confidence
2nd Race – Sam Houston – Maiden Claiming 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt
Post Time
01:27 PM
Pace Analysis
This maiden claiming sprint should feature an honest pace. Up in the Blue has rail positioning, but Thousand Wins and Gambling Den will likely contest the early lead from the outside.
Key Contenders
Up in the Blue (1) represents the potent W. Bret Calhoun and Jose Alvarez combination. Drawing the rail in a sprint requires a sharp break, and this filly has the pedigree to flash early speed. Thousand Wins (5) is another strong Gelner entry, guided by Lane Luzzi, and fits perfectly at this claiming level.
Secondary Choices
Clearly Gorgeous (4) gets Weston Hamilton in the irons and has shown enough in morning works to suggest she can be competitive in this field. Paynter’s Palette (7) draws the outside box and avoids the kickback, which could help her close late.
Longshots
Hellabella (2) has struggled to find the wire first but could clunk along for a minor award if the pace collapses.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Rely on the high-percentage connections. The Calhoun/Alvarez team is difficult to look past in maiden claiming events. An exacta key with the inside horse over the middle of the field is the primary play.
Selections
Win: Up in the Blue (1) – 40% confidence
Place: Thousand Wins (5) – 35% confidence
Show: Clearly Gorgeous (4) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Paynter’s Palette (7) – 10% confidence
3rd Race – Sam Houston – Stakes 6 Furlongs Dirt
Post Time
01:54 PM
Pace Analysis
The Jim’s Orbit Stakes features a compact field with the scratch of Witt’s Ten Touch. High Cinco and Lexi’s Comeback are the primary speed threats and should hook up early in a contested duel.
Key Contenders
High Cinco (4) from the Danny Pish barn is a standout. Lane Luzzi will look to put this gelding right on the engine. Lexi’s Comeback (1) will try to protect the rail under Isaiah Wiseman, ensuring the pace is honest from the jump.
Secondary Choices
Shop Time (2) has tactical ability and could benefit immensely if the top two choices engage in a destructive speed duel. Floyd Wethey Jr. is excellent at timing off-the-pace rides.
Longshots
Red Dirt Alley (5) looks outclassed on paper but gets a favorable outside draw to track the field and pick up any tiring rivals.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Look for the upset. If the speed duel materializes between the inside and outside horses, the stalking trip of the secondary choice becomes highly valuable.
Selections
Win: Shop Time (2) – 40% confidence
Place: High Cinco (4) – 35% confidence
Show: Lexi’s Comeback (1) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Red Dirt Alley (5) – 10% confidence
4th Race – Sam Houston – Claiming 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt
Post Time
02:21 PM
Pace Analysis
A frantic early pace is expected in this short sprint. I’m On Edge will likely send from the outside, while Holiday Lines will protect position from the rail.
Key Contenders
I’m On Edge (8) is an Asmussen trainee with Stewart Elliott aboard. They draw perfectly on the outside to monitor the pace and pounce. Sassy Flyer (4) has the back class to handle this group and should sit a perfect mid-pack trip.
Secondary Choices
Holiday Lines (1) has the inside advantage but must break cleanly to avoid getting shuffled back. Dixie’s Heart (6) has shown flashes of ability and fits well in this claiming tier.
Longshots
Scattered Mischief (3) is a three-year-old facing older foes, which is always a tough task, but she gets a slight weight break.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Lean heavily on the outside draw and top connections. The Asmussen/Elliott combination in a sprint is a high-percentage wager.
Selections
Win: I’m On Edge (8) – 50% confidence
Place: Sassy Flyer (4) – 25% confidence
Show: Holiday Lines (1) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Dixie’s Heart (6) – 10% confidence
5th Race – Sam Houston – Stakes 6 Furlongs Dirt
Post Time
02:48 PM
Pace Analysis
The Two Altazano Stakes should feature a moderate to fast pace. Texas Speed Queen has blazing early foot, while Whisperin Liz will press the issue from the middle of the gate.
Key Contenders
Texas Speed Queen (5) lives up to her name and represents the J.R. Caldwell barn with Lane Luzzi. She should clear early and play catch-me-if-you-can. Harvey’s Finnish (4) for Danny Pish is the logical alternative, bringing solid form into this stakes engagement.
Secondary Choices
Whisperin Liz (3) secures Stewart Elliott and will get every chance to run down the leaders if the fractions get too hot. Kiss My Dice (2) gives the Caldwell barn a strong one-two punch in this event.
Longshots
My Conquest (1) is drawn well but needs a career-best effort to upset this talented group of fillies.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Speed is dangerous at this distance. If the outside horse clears, she may not look back. An exacta box with the outside two runners covers the main bases.
Selections
Win: Texas Speed Queen (5) – 45% confidence
Place: Harvey’s Finnish (4) – 30% confidence
Show: Whisperin Liz (3) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Kiss My Dice (2) – 10% confidence
6th Race – Sam Houston – Claiming 5 Furlongs Turf
Post Time
03:15 PM
Pace Analysis
Turf sprints are all about breaking sharply. Cinnamon Sugar and My Boy Vander should burst from the gates, creating a rapid tempo.
Key Contenders
Cinnamon Sugar (1) gets the rail, Asmussen, and Elliott. In a five-furlong turf dash, the shortest way home is a massive advantage. My Boy Vander (3) for Jayde Gelner is a prime threat to wire the field if the rail horse stumbles.
Secondary Choices
Real Mischievous (4) and That Was Easy (8) have enough late kick to factor into the exotics if the frontrunners tire in the final sixteenth of a mile.
Longshots
Parola Sicura (2) has inconsistent form but could find the turf to her liking at a big price.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Inside posts in turf sprints are golden. Single the rail horse in multi-race sequences and key her on top in vertical wagers.
Selections
Win: Cinnamon Sugar (1) – 55% confidence
Place: My Boy Vander (3) – 20% confidence
Show: That Was Easy (8) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Real Mischievous (4) – 10% confidence
7th Race – Sam Houston – Claiming 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt
Post Time
03:42 PM
Pace Analysis
A scramble for the early lead is imminent. Rocky Rock It and Little Lee both have the acceleration to contest the first quarter-mile.
Key Contenders
Rocky Rock It (3) gets Stewart Elliott for Mindy J. Willis and looks perfectly spotted for a breakthrough performance. Little Lee (6) represents the dangerous Gelner barn and gets a slight weight allowance as a three-year-old.
Secondary Choices
Oklahoma Flame (2) has tactical speed and should save ground before launching a bid. Cibolo Erl (7) is an older gelding with the experience to navigate this type of field.
Longshots
Just Hangin Ridge (4) needs a total pace meltdown to get involved late.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Rely on the established older horses against the three-year-old. The Willis entry looks solid at this level.
Selections
Win: Rocky Rock It (3) – 40% confidence
Place: Little Lee (6) – 30% confidence
Show: Oklahoma Flame (2) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Cibolo Erl (7) – 10% confidence
8th Race – Sam Houston – Allowance Optional Claiming 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt
Post Time
04:09 PM
Pace Analysis
With the scratch of Quinquela, the pace flow opens up. Evening Edge and Let Her Be are the main pace protagonists.
Key Contenders
Evening Edge (6) is an Asmussen trainee with Elliott aboard, a combination that commands respect in every race they enter. Let Her Be (2) ships in for Dick Cappellucci and has the figures to compete strongly at this allowance level.
Secondary Choices
Midnight Breeze (1) draws the rail and will try to wire the field, while Cowgirl Dream (7) will look to stalk and pounce from the outside.
Longshots
Libbies Baby (3) is stepping up in class and will need a lifetime best to hit the board.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Class relief and top connections are the play here. Key the Asmussen runner over the logical contenders in exactas and trifectas.
Selections
Win: Evening Edge (6) – 45% confidence
Place: Let Her Be (2) – 25% confidence
Show: Midnight Breeze (1) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Cowgirl Dream (7) – 15% confidence
9th Race – Sam Houston – Stakes 1 Mile Turf
Post Time
04:36 PM
Pace Analysis
The Miss Bluebonnet Turf Stakes has lost Sweet Karat Cake and Imaluckycharm to scratches. The pace should be honest but not overly taxing. Take My Picture and Kissin Riches will be forwardly placed.
Key Contenders
Too Much Kiki (9) looks imposing for Bret Calhoun with Stewart Elliott riding. Despite the outside draw, she has the class to overcome the trip. Kissin Riches (10) represents Asmussen and will be tracking the leaders every step of the way.
Secondary Choices
Blue Heavenly (7) and Cafezinho (1) have strong turf pedigrees and will benefit from the scratches opening up the field.
Longshots
Blood Orange (5) has been running against lesser but could spice up the exotics with a ground-saving trip.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Look to the outside posts for the classiest runners. Box the Calhoun and Asmussen entries in the exactas.
Selections
Win: Too Much Kiki (9) – 40% confidence
Place: Kissin Riches (10) – 35% confidence
Show: Blue Heavenly (7) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Cafezinho (1) – 10% confidence
10th Race – Sam Houston – Allowance 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt
Post Time
05:03 PM
Pace Analysis
A large field will guarantee a contested pace. Haleakala and First Class Lady have the speed to dictate terms.
Key Contenders
First Class Lady (8) puts the Asmussen and Elliott team front and center again. Haleakala (1) secures the rail for Bret Calhoun and Jose Alvarez, setting up a classic battle between the two top barns.
Secondary Choices
Typhoon Tessie (10) draws wide but has the tactical foot to overcome the post. Whata Moon (4) is a logical inclusion for the exotics from the Gelner stable.
Longshots
Mathurine (3) makes a class jump but has been sharp in recent morning drills.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Side with the rail horse in this elongated sprint. The inside track saves crucial ground and energy.
Selections
Win: Haleakala (1) – 40% confidence
Place: First Class Lady (8) – 35% confidence
Show: Typhoon Tessie (10) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Whata Moon (4) – 10% confidence
11th Race – Sam Houston – Stakes 7 Furlongs Dirt
Post Time
05:30 PM
Pace Analysis
The David E. Hooper Stakes at seven furlongs is a tricky distance that tests both speed and stamina. Raise the Bar will use the rail to establish position, while Golden Grit applies pressure.
Key Contenders
Raise the Bar (1) gets the dream inside post for Asmussen and Elliott in a high-purse stakes. Tx Code (4) represents Bret Calhoun and has the back class to win this event comfortably.
Secondary Choices
Victory for Vets (8) is another Calhoun entry, providing a potent uncoupled entry for the barn. Too Much Action (3) for J.R. Caldwell is a grizzled veteran who always shows up.
Longshots
Team Gormley (7) will be passing tired horses late if the early fractions are destructive.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
The seven-furlong distance heavily favors horses that can relax early. The inside speed horse is the top choice, but covering with the off-the-pace Calhoun runner is wise.
Selections
Win: Raise the Bar (1) – 45% confidence
Place: Tx Code (4) – 30% confidence
Show: Victory for Vets (8) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Too Much Action (3) – 10% confidence
12th Race – Sam Houston – Stakes 1 1/16 Miles Turf
Post Time
05:57 PM
Pace Analysis
The Sunlit Song Turf Stakes concludes the card. With Just Bernie and Silver Assassin out, the early pace should be moderate. Proven Advocate and Colonel Yorke will likely assume control early.
Key Contenders
Tx Code (1) is double-entered on the card and draws the rail here on the turf. If he runs here, he is a massive threat for Calhoun. Victory for Vets (3) is also double-entered and fits beautifully on the grass.
Secondary Choices
Colonel Yorke (5) has Stewart Elliott aboard for Mindy Willis and should sit a perfect trip just behind the leaders. Mor Victory (6) gets Lane Luzzi and will be doing his best running in the final furlong.
Longshots
Guitar Boy (4) has spotty form but could hit the board if left alone on the front end.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Pay close attention to scratches regarding the double-entered horses. Assuming they run, the inside Calhoun entries hold a distinct class edge.
Selections
Win: Tx Code (1) – 40% confidence
Place: Victory for Vets (3) – 30% confidence
Show: Colonel Yorke (5) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Mor Victory (6) – 10% confidence
Jockey Notes and Insights
Stewart Elliott is historically dominant at Sam Houston and his mounts today, particularly for Steve Asmussen, are prime contenders. Bettors must respect anything he rides. Jose Alvarez is another top-tier rider locally, forming a lethal combination with W. Bret Calhoun. Lane Luzzi and Rene Diaz are highly capable jockeys who often provide better mutuel value while still turning in exceptional, ground-saving rides, especially on the turf.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Steve Asmussen and W. Bret Calhoun bring exceptional depth to this stakes-heavy card. Their entries are usually fully cranked and ready to fire best efforts. Jayde J. Gelner is a trainer whose barn has shown excellent form and his runners today appear strategically placed to win. J.R. Caldwell and Mindy J. Willis are high-percentage conditioners who excel with older claiming and allowance horses, making their entrants must-use commodities in exotic wagers.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The most reliable strategy today is leaning on the established jockey-trainer pipelines, specifically Asmussen/Elliott and Calhoun/Alvarez. Value plays can be found by keying these top contenders underneath horses ridden by Lane Luzzi or Floyd Wethey Jr. in the exotics. For multi-race wagers like the Pick 5, singling the Asmussen turf runners drawn on the inside (such as Cinnamon Sugar in Race 6) allows you to spread deep in the highly competitive dirt stakes races.
