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Santa Anita Park offers an exciting nine-race card on Sunday, headlined by the Grade 2 Anoakia Stakes for 2-year-old fillies. The program also features competitive claiming and maiden races on both dirt and turf surfaces.
Weather and Track Conditions
The forecast calls for sunny skies with temperatures reaching 83 degrees and light north-northeast winds of 0-5 mph. Current conditions show fair weather at 75 degrees with westerly winds at 8 mph and 38% humidity. Both dirt and turf tracks are expected to remain in fast and firm condition respectively, with no rail moves reported for the main oval. The turf courses maintain their standard rail positions with no adjustments.
Race-by-Race Analysis
Race 1 – Claiming $26,000, 6 1/2 Furlongs Turf
Key Contenders: Baela (3) drops significantly in class for Bob Baffert after finishing fifth in the Grade 3 Chillingworth Stakes on October 4. The daughter of Into Mischief switches from dirt to turf with Juan Hernandez aboard, making her the 7-2 morning line favorite. Freya (4) trained by Dan Blacker offers value at 9-2 odds with Ricardo Gonzalez riding.
Secondary Choices: Press Your Luck (2) brings Mirco Demuro’s European expertise to this turf sprint at 5-1 odds for Doug O’Neill. Lady Rider (1) rounds out the top tier at 8-1 with Antonio Fresu aboard.
Pace Analysis: This turf sprint should develop moderate early fractions with several speed types in the field. The downhill turf course typically favors horses with tactical speed who can position well through the sweeping turns.
Wagering Angles: Baela represents significant class relief for the Baffert barn. The exacta combinations of 3-4 and 4-1 offer the best value structure.
Race 2 – Anoakia Stakes (G2), 6 Furlongs Dirt
The Anoakia Stakes represents a critical stepping stone for juvenile fillies aspiring to championship honors, with recent history showing a pattern of winning favorites in compact fields. This year’s renewal features just five runners, creating an interesting dynamic between proven stakes winners and promising maidens.
The Overwhelming Favorite
Himika (4) enters as the prohibitive favorite and rightfully so after two dominant performances that have established her as one of the nation’s premier 2-year-old fillies. The daughter of Curlin captured her maiden debut by six lengths before delivering a tour de force in the Grade 3 Sorrento Stakes at Del Mar, where she overcame early traffic concerns to win by 4¼ lengths as the 1-5 favorite.
Her Sorrento victory showcased both tactical speed and a devastating finishing kick. After breaking from the rail post, she found herself behind horses early before jockey Juan Hernandez threaded her through traffic at the five-furlong pole. “She broke just a bit slow, and I saw that outside filly going fast, so I didn’t want to have to start chasing,” Hernandez explained. “I sent my filly up between horses, and she was comfortable with it”.
The performance was visually impressive, with Himika geared down through the final furlong while posting a respectable 1:10.61 for six furlongs. Her connections with trainer Bob Baffert and owner Baoma Corp mirror last year’s Debutante winner Tenma, suggesting championship-caliber ability.
Most significantly, Baffert recently fired a bullet work with Himika in preparation for this assignment. The Hall of Fame trainer holds the record with nine Sorrento Stakes victories and previously captured the 2024 Anoakia with the undefeated Silent Law.
The Sadler Challenge
Revera (1) presents the most credible threat to Himika based on her runner-up effort to Baffert’s highly regarded Explora in a Del Mar maiden special weight. In that August 17 contest, Revera “pressed EXPLORA from outside up the backstretch, could not keep up and chased two wide through the turn, finished determinedly down the lane but was no match for the winner”.
While finishing 4¾ lengths behind Explora appears discouraging on paper, the effort demonstrated both early speed and determination through the stretch. Importantly, Explora went on to impressive subsequent performances, validating the strength of that maiden race.
Trainer John Sadler’s confidence shows in his decision to supplement Revera to this stakes event while also entering stablemate Umbralle (2). The veteran conditioner rarely enters two horses in stakes races without strong convictions about both runners’ chances.
Umbralle arrives less proven but brings the intrigue of being a fresh face from the powerful Sadler barn. The trainer’s recent work with 2-year-olds, including the undefeated Hey Nay Nay who targets the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, suggests his juvenile division remains in excellent form.
Secondary Contenders
Heavenly Princess (3) represents trainer Librado Barocio with the significant weight concession of 118 pounds compared to 122 for Himika and 120 for the Sadler pair. The allowance could prove meaningful in a short field where every advantage matters.
Stuffy Mist (5) completes the field for trainer Victor Garcia at the same 118-pound impost. While facing a significant class test, the light weight assignment suggests connections believe she possesses the ability to compete at this level.
Pace Analysis
The compact field creates an interesting pace scenario. Himika demonstrated both tactical speed and the ability to settle in the Sorrento, while Revera showed early pace pressing tactics in her maiden victory attempt. With only five runners, honest fractions seem likely without being suicidal.
Himika’s proven ability to rate off the pace gives her tactical advantages, particularly with Juan Hernandez’s expert handling. The shorter distance of six furlongs compared to seven in the Sorrento should suit her early speed better.
Key Angles
Class Relief: While Himika faces winners for the first time, her Grade 3 victory represents significantly higher class than anything the opposition has attempted.
Trainer Patterns: Baffert’s success in this race with Silent Law last year, combined with his record nine Sorrento victories, suggests excellent placement.
Distance: The cutback from seven furlongs in the Sorrento to six furlongs here should favor Himika’s natural speed.
Connections: The proven partnership of Baoma Corp, Baffert, and Hernandez mirrors successful championship campaigns.
Wagering Assessment
Himika represents an overwhelming class advantage that appears insurmountable for this opposition. Her combination of proven stakes ability, excellent connections, and tactical versatility creates a scenario where betting against her requires finding significant value elsewhere.
The Sadler entry offers the most realistic upset potential, with Revera’s maiden effort suggesting genuine ability. However, the class differential between facing maidens and a Grade 3 winner creates a substantial gap to bridge.
Recommended Play: Himika appears a virtual lock in this spot, making her the foundation for all exotic wagers while seeking value underneath with the Sadler runners.
Race 3 – Claiming $23,000, 1 Mile Dirt
Key Contenders: Feel the Magic (6) emerges as the 7-5 favorite for Jose Valdez with Kazushi Kimura aboard. The gelding shows consistent form in this claiming level. Doo Wop Don (3) offers value at 5-2 with Diego Herrera.
Secondary Choices: Low Expectations (5) and Leyas Candy (1) both merit consideration in the lower price ranges.
Pace Analysis: This mile race should develop moderate early splits, allowing stalkers to position effectively for the stretch drive.
Wagering Angles: The 6-3 exacta box provides the strongest foundation, with 3-4-6 trifecta coverage recommended.
Race 4 – Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile Dirt
This restricted maiden special weight for California-bred or sired horses represents an important stepping stone for state-bred runners, with the winner receiving a significant $37,800 first-place prize plus the CTBA bonus. The six-horse field features intriguing connections and varied experience levels that create multiple handicapping angles.
The D’Amato Factor
Otto’s Magic (4) emerges as the logical favorite based on both connections and breeding advantages. Most significantly, trainer Philip D’Amato also bred this dark bay gelding by Grazen out of Shikhara, demonstrating ultimate confidence in the horse’s ability. When a trainer breeds, owns, and races a horse themselves, it typically indicates they believe strongly in the animal’s potential.
D’Amato’s decision to enter both Otto’s Magic and Tom Mix (2) creates an interesting stable dynamic. Tom Mix, also a Grazen colt but out of Sky Marni, carries longer odds at 15-1 on the morning line. The veteran trainer’s willingness to split his chances suggests both horses possess legitimate ability, though Otto’s Magic clearly receives the stronger endorsement as the shorter-priced runner.
The Grazen sire line has shown consistent success with California-breds, and D’Amato’s expertise with this pedigree pattern adds credibility to both entries. Otto’s Magic draws post 4 with Ricardo Gonzalez, a solid tactical positioning that allows for various running styles depending on early pace development.
The Form Horse
Keithing Thunder (5) brings the most proven recent form to this contest with two runner-up finishes at Santa Anita in May and June 2025. The Mesa Thunder colt showed consistent improvement through those efforts, finishing second to Silver I Am on June 1 at 9-1 odds and second to Willisau on May 9 at 10-3.
Those recent placings demonstrate both competitive ability and steady progress under trainer Brendan Galvin’s patient handling. The partnership with jockey Tyler Baze provides continuity, as Baze has been aboard for all the horse’s recent efforts. The consistent jockey-trainer combination suggests confidence in their partnership and familiarity with the horse’s racing characteristics.
Trainer Galvin’s approach shows patience with developing horses, as evidenced by Keithing Thunder’s gradual improvement through multiple starts. The gelding’s ability to finish second twice at Santa Anita suggests he’s found his preferred track and surface combination.
The Interesting Trainer Story
Team Player (3) represents trainer Ryan Hanson, whose unconventional breaking and training methods have gained attention throughout Southern California. Hanson’s philosophy of “breaking them to be horses, not racehorses” involves extensive natural terrain work at Whittier Narrows, where horses develop balance and confidence over varying ground conditions.
This approach has produced notable success, including Night Beacon’s development from a $45,000 yearling purchase into a competitive runner. Team Player, a Majestic Harbor gelding out of Team Decision, draws 12-1 morning line odds but could offer value if Hanson’s methods have prepared him for the rigors of competition.
The gelding carries 122 pounds with Kazushi Kimura aboard, and the trainer’s emphasis on natural development could provide advantages in stamina and tactical positioning over the mile distance.
The Veteran Stable
Rich Reward (1) brings the experience of trainer Paula Capestro, whose stable has achieved multiple graded stakes success. Capestro has established herself as a successful California-based conditioner, particularly with California-bred runners.
The Richard’s Kid gelding out of Blondy’s Reward draws the rail post with Kyle Frey aboard, creating early positioning options. Capestro’s experience with maiden special weight races and California-bred horses provides solid credentials for this assignment.
The Longshot
Non Domicile (6) completes the field for trainer George Papaprodromou at what figure to be the longest odds. The Promises Fulfilled gelding out of Merada brings Umberto Rispoli’s riding skills but faces a difficult task against more proven competition.
Pace Analysis
The mile distance should allow for tactical development, particularly with only six runners creating less early pressure than typical maiden races. Keithing Thunder’s recent runner-up finishes suggest he possesses tactical speed and stamina for the distance.
Otto’s Magic’s breeding by the speed-oriented Grazen suggests early positioning ability, while Tom Mix brings similar breeding advantages. The relatively small field should prevent pace-compromising early fractions.
Key Angles
Breeder-Trainer Confidence: D’Amato’s decision to breed, own, and train Otto’s Magic represents maximum stable confidence.
Recent Form: Keithing Thunder’s back-to-back runner-up finishes provide the strongest recent performance evidence.
Training Methods: Hanson’s unconventional approach with Team Player could provide unexpected advantages.
California-Bred Bonus: The additional $10,000 CTBA bonus creates enhanced value for connections.
Wagering Assessment
Otto’s Magic appears the logical choice based on D’Amato’s breeding and training confidence, combined with solid jockey assignment and post position. However, Keithing Thunder’s proven recent form at the track creates a legitimate upset threat at likely attractive odds.
The D’Amato entry provides interesting exacta possibilities, while Team Player’s unconventional preparation could offer trifecta value if Hanson’s methods prove effective.
Recommended Play: Otto’s Magic for the win with Keithing Thunder providing exacta value, while Team Player merits trifecta consideration given Hanson’s unique training approach.
Race 5 – Claiming $25,000, 1 Mile Turf
Key Contenders: Nameless (3) receives expert backing as a best bet at 9-2 with Tyler Baze for Genaro Vallejo. Its Kraken Time (10) offers value at 5-1 with Geovanni Franco after a recent trainer change. Note: Shortman (13) has been scratched.
Secondary Choices: Don’t Swear Dave (6) at 6-1 with Antonio Fresu provides another live option. Vantastic (5) brings Juan Hernandez’s expertise at similar odds.
Longshots: Great King (12) at 10-1 could offer exotic value in this competitive turf mile.
Pace Analysis: This turf mile typically develops moderate fractions, allowing for varied running styles to succeed.
Wagering Angles: The 3-10 exacta box anchors most plays, with broader trifecta coverage including 6 and 12.
Race 6 – Claiming $5,000, 1 Mile Dirt
Key Contenders: Be Punctual (8) receives strong expert support as a best bet at 3-1 with Kyle Frey for Robert Hess Jr. Tamarando Star (2) provides the main competition at 9-2 with David Cohen.
Secondary Choices: American Empire (3) at 10-1 with Abel Lezcano could provide upset potential. Upstart Yankee (7) merits consideration at 4-1.
Pace Analysis: This bottom-level claiming race typically develops moderate pace, favoring horses in good current form.
Wagering Angles: The 8-2 exacta box offers the strongest foundation for this claiming event.
Race 7 – Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 1/4 Miles Downhill Turf
Key Contenders: Thebestisyettobe (5) receives best bet status at 3-1 with Antonio Fresu for Philip D’Amato. Eternal Reign (2) provides strong competition at 5-2 with Juan Hernandez, also trained by D’Amato. Note: Be Together (8) has been scratched.
Secondary Choices: Cornelia Fort (4) at 7-2 with Tyler Baze offers value in this competitive allowance field. Hey Jessie (3) brings Mike Smith’s expertise at 6-1.
Pace Analysis: The downhill turf configuration typically produces moderate pace through the early stages before accelerating down the hill.
Wagering Angles: The D’Amato stable’s 1-2 punch with different jockeys creates interesting exacta and trifecta possibilities.
Race 8 – Maiden Claiming $12,500, 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt
Key Contenders: Beneficial (9) emerges as the 2-1 favorite for Tim Yakteen with Kazushi Kimura aboard. Seattle Surf (5) provides value at 5-2 with Adrian Escobedo.
Secondary Choices: Cancun Native (4) at 6-1 with Geovanni Franco offers upset potential. Bang and a Boom (8) could provide exotic value at 8-1.
Pace Analysis: This maiden claiming sprint should develop moderate fractions typical of this class level.
Wagering Angles: The 9-5 exacta box provides the strongest foundation, with 4-5-9 trifecta coverage recommended.
Race 9 – Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile Turf
Key Contenders: Booked Clubhouse (2) receives strong support at 5-2 with Kyle Frey for Sean McCarthy. Doing Time (8) offers value at 4-1 with Alfredo Bautista.
Secondary Choices: What a Gift (7) at 8-1 provides longshot appeal. Unrivaled Time (3) deserves consideration at 9-2 with Diego Herrera.
Pace Analysis: This California-bred maiden special weight on turf typically develops moderate pace allowing various running styles.
Wagering Angles: The 2-8 exacta box anchors most strategies, with 2-7-8 trifecta coverage recommended.
Jockey Notes and Insights
Juan Hernandez continues his dominance at Santa Anita with over 2,400 career wins and multiple meet titles. His 25% win rate and excellent pace judgment make him a key rider to follow, particularly aboard Baela in the opener and Eternal Reign in Race 7.
Kyle Frey provides strong value throughout the card with mounts on Be Punctual (Race 6) and Booked Clubhouse (Race 9). His tactical abilities suit both the claiming and maiden special weight levels.
Antonio Fresu brings European experience to multiple mounts including Revera in the stakes race and Thebestisyettobe in the allowance. His tactical awareness on turf surfaces adds value to his mounts.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Bob Baffert returns with multiple runners including Baela in Race 1 and Himika in the featured Anoakia Stakes. The Hall of Fame trainer shows 82 wins from 269 starts in 2025, maintaining his typical strike rate. His recent success with Explora in the Oak Leaf Stakes demonstrates continued stable form.
Philip D’Amato presents strong chances with Otto’s Magic in Race 4 and a powerful 1-2 punch in Race 7 with Eternal Reign and Thebestisyettobe. The stable’s confidence in running multiple horses suggests excellent current form.
John Sadler brings championship-level expertise to the Anoakia Stakes with both Revera and Umbralle. The veteran trainer’s willingness to run two in a stakes race indicates strong stable confidence.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
Best Bets: Be Punctual in Race 6 and Nameless in Race 5 receive expert backing as strongest single-race plays.
Value Plays: Baela in Race 1 offers significant class relief at reasonable odds. The D’Amato exacta in Race 7 with Eternal Reign and Thebestisyettobe provides intriguing value.
Multi-Race Strategies: Focus on Pick 3 and Pick 4 combinations anchored by the stronger races (2, 6, 7) while using multiple horses in the more competitive claiming events.
Exotic Value: Target trifectas in races with legitimate longshots like Race 5 with Great King and Race 9 with the California-bred maidens showing varied form patterns.
