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Santa Anita Park presents a 10-race card today headlined by the Pasadena Stakes (Race 7), a $100,000 stakes race for three-year-olds going one mile on turf. The card features a broad mix of conditions: two maiden special weight events on turf (Races 1 and 10), a $16,000 claiming race for fillies and mares on dirt (Race 2), a starter allowance turf sprint (Race 3), a maiden claiming dirt sprint for fillies (Race 4), a maiden claiming turf sprint (Race 5), a Cal-bred maiden special weight dirt sprint (Race 6), a Cal-bred allowance optional claiming dirt mile (Race 8), and a Cal-bred allowance downhill turf sprint for fillies and mares (Race 9).
The day’s featured stakes race, the Pasadena, features a competitive group of 11 sophomores, highlighted by Baffle Stakes winner Greenwich Village (PP2) for trainer Bob Baffert and Grade 3 winner Unrivaled Time (PP6) for Leonard Powell. Triple Crown nominee Smoovin Saturday (PP1) for Michael McCarthy enters off solid form as well.
There is a notable Pick 6 carryover of $40,088 beginning with Race 5 today, with the estimated pool exceeding $300,000. The Sunset Pick 6 carries over $23,783 and the Super High 5 carries $16,854.
Scratch Watch: Charlie’s Curlin (PP7 Race 1) has been scratched. Bessie Coleman (PP7 Race 9) has also been scratched. The Scratch Watch from the entries also flags Dinkum (Race 1) as also-eligible, Darlin’ Duchess (Race 4) as re-entered, Lady Detective (Race 4) as re-entered, Caro Buono (Race 7) as a trainer concern, and Lamporghini (Race 9) as also-eligible.
Weather and Track Conditions
Today’s weather at Santa Anita calls for mostly sunny skies with a high of 73 to 77 degrees and light winds becoming west at 10 mph during the afternoon. The overnight low was near 50 degrees, with clear conditions reported as of the early morning hours. No rain is expected today or tonight.
The dirt track is expected to be Fast and the turf course is expected to be Firm, consistent with Santa Anita’s standard winter surface conditions when the weather is dry. The turf rail is set at 20 feet for today’s turf races. This is a standard configuration and should produce fair racing conditions.
The warming trend (temperatures have climbed from the low 60s earlier this week to the mid-to-upper 70s today) should produce a firm, fast racing surface across both courses. There are no moisture concerns to affect either surface.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
Santa Anita is not known for a pronounced track bias under normal conditions. Winners are spread fairly evenly across post positions on the dirt. The rail position on turf, contrary to some other tracks, actually produces winners at a healthy clip with approximately 17.8% of turf winners coming from post 1, the highest rate of any post position.
On the dirt at sprint distances (5 1/2 furlongs through 6 1/2 furlongs), front-runners and presser types have held a significant advantage this meet, consistent with historical patterns. Speed on the dirt has won at around 51% in routes over the last year, with stalkers accounting for 36% and closers just 13%.
On the turf at one mile (the most common distance today with Races 1, 7, and 10), early speed and stalkers have performed well while closers have won only about 19% of turf mile races. The turf sprints at six furlongs with the rail at the current configuration have shown a closers-friendly profile this meet, with 11 of 13 such races won from the back half of the field and only one pacesetter winning.
For the downhill turf sprint in Race 9, horses familiar with the unique configuration tend to have an edge, as the course includes right-hand turns, a hill start, and a crossover of the main track that are unique in North American racing.
Race 1 — Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile Turf, Purse $70,000, 3YOs
Post Time: 12:30 PM PT
Pace Analysis
This is a maiden turf mile with several first-time starters and route newcomers. Dinkum (PP2) showed front-running ability in his debut, while Postmodern (PP4) has stalking speed from his turf sprint effort. Ghostwritten (PP3) displayed tactical speed in his dirt debut. The pace scenario projects as moderate, with Dinkum likely to show the way, Postmodern pressing from close range, and Ghostwritten in contention through the early going. A moderate pace should set up for horses with tactical speed near the front.
Key Contenders
Ghostwritten (PP3) stretches out and switches to turf after a promising third-place debut in a dirt sprint. That race has since produced strong next-out performances, with winner Liam Smith crushing a starter allowance and runner-up Sharons Beach favored in a maiden race. Ghostwritten reportedly trained like a distance horse before his debut, and his dam was a four-time route stakes winner on turf and synthetic surfaces. Trainer Tim Yakteen is clicking at a strong 17% win rate this meet, and jockey Kazushi Kimura, who is tied for the meet lead in wins, provides a significant rider upgrade.
Koekkoek (PP8) makes his U.S. debut and first start since a fourth-place debut last fall in Ireland for trainer Phil D’Amato. D’Amato is 2-for-3 this meet with European shippers in maiden races, making this a very live angle. The horse has been working well locally, and the D’Amato Euro-import pattern is one of the strongest trainer angles at Santa Anita. Jockey Antonio Fresu is riding at an 18% win rate this meet.
Dinkum (PP2) finished second by only three-quarters of a length in his career debut at a mile and one-eighth, showing front-running ability and determination. He is listed as also-eligible, so check for scratches. If he draws in, he is a significant contender with jockey Hector Berrios (21% win rate) and trainer Doug O’Neill.
Secondary Choices
Postmodern (PP4) stretches out from an improved second start when he switched to a turf sprint, rallying to third. He ran like a colt that wants more distance, and he gets it here. Trainer Mark Glatt is running at a solid 17% win rate.
Longshots
Stan Theman Musial (PP5) is a first-time starter for trainer Michael McCarthy, one of the top conditioners at the meet (19% win rate). McCarthy debuts are always worth a look. The 12/1 morning line offers value if connections are confident. Sharons Pharoah (PP6) debuts for Jonathan Thomas, who is running at an elite 21% win rate this meet. Both should be used underneath in exotic wagers.
Selections
Win: Ghostwritten (PP3)
Place: Koekkoek (PP8)
Show: Dinkum (PP2) (if drawn in) / Postmodern (PP4)
Wagering strategy: Ghostwritten on top of exactas and trifectas. Box Ghostwritten, Koekkoek, and Postmodern in trifectas. Add Dinkum (if he draws in) and Stan Theman Musial as trifecta and superfecta undercard options. A small win bet on Koekkoek at 9/2 morning line is warranted given the D’Amato Euro-shipper angle.
Race 2 — Claiming ($16,000), 1 Mile Dirt, Purse $23,000, F&M 4YO+
Post Time: 1:02 PM PT
Pace Analysis
This is a small field of six fillies and mares going a mile on dirt. Exington (PP3) has established front-running speed from her turf starts and figures to show early foot on the dirt switch. Sei Bella (PP6) is a stretch-out sprinter who should also press the pace. The pace scenario projects as moderate to honest, with Exington and Sei Bella likely vying for the front.
Key Contenders
Exington (PP3) switches to dirt after showing significant speed in both recent turf starts, leading before tiring in the final furlong. Speed generally carries farther on dirt, and the last time she ran on dirt she finished a better-than-it-looked fourth with a wide trip. She faces easier here than either recent turf start, and trainer Steven Miyadi has her well-spotted. Jockey Emisael Jaramillo should have her on or near the lead from the break.
Infinity Dream (PP4) drops from starter allowance company and tries dirt for the first time. Her pressing style projects well for a surface switch, and progeny of stallion Global Campaign generally favor dirt over turf. Jockey Juan Hernandez, the meet’s co-leading rider, is a major positive.
Secondary Choices
A Fleet Ride (PP5) stretches back to a route and drops dramatically in class for her second start back from a layoff. If she handles the class drop, she is in the picture.
Moonlit Courage (PP1) is trained by Richard Mandella and gets Kazushi Kimura in the irons. Mandella’s presence in a $16,000 claimer is notable, and the rail draw is a positive at one mile on dirt.
Selections
Win: Exington (PP3)
Place: Infinity Dream (PP4)
Show: Moonlit Courage (PP1)
Wagering strategy: Exington in straight wagers. Use Exington on top and Infinity Dream underneath in exactas. Include A Fleet Ride and Moonlit Courage in trifectas underneath the top two.
Race 3 — Starter Allowance, 6 Furlongs Turf, Purse $37,000, F&M 4YO+
Post Time: 1:32 PM PT
Pace Analysis
This starter allowance turf sprint at six furlongs features several pace types. How Lovely (PP1) is speed on the rail shortening from 6 1/2 furlongs. Busy Making Munny (PP7) also has some early speed. Miyako (PP3) has tactical speed and should be forwardly placed. However, the key stat for this race is that the six-furlong turf sprint with the rail at this 20-foot configuration has overwhelmingly favored closers this meet, with 11 of 13 winners coming from the back half of the field and only one pacesetter winning. This makes a strong case for the late runners.
Key Contenders
Miyako (PP3) shortens to a sprint after going too fast on the front end and tiring to fourth last out at one mile. She was primarily a sprinter before relocating from the Midwest to California, and she won a route race two starts back. The sprint distance helps, as she has speed to be forwardly placed but will not need to sustain it as long. Jockey Florent Geroux adds class. Trainer George Papaprodromou has her in good form.
Miss Meagher (PP4) shortens to a sprint after finishing in the money three of her last four starts at this level racing a mile on turf. The class question is answered and the distance reduction could be beneficial.
Secondary Choices
Princess Midnight (PP5) missed by only a neck last out in her return from a three-month layoff. She has lost eight times at this level but her most recent effort ranks among the best in this field. She should be rolling late, and the closers-friendly turf sprint profile benefits her style.
Miz Clubcali (PP6) is a late-running longshot who benefits from the pronounced closers-friendly profile of this turf sprint configuration. At a price, she is worth including underneath in exotic plays.
Longshots
Lady Monclaire (PP8) gets Kazushi Kimura up for trainer Ryan Hanson. Any horse with a late-running style and this jockey at this price is worth a look in the trifecta and superfecta.
Selections
Win: Miyako (PP3)
Place: Princess Midnight (PP5)
Show: Miss Meagher (PP4)
Wagering strategy: Miyako in straight wagers. This race is wide open. Use Miyako, Princess Midnight, and Miss Meagher in trifecta boxes. Add Miz Clubcali and How Lovely underneath for superfecta value. Given the closers-friendly bias, leaning toward Princess Midnight and Miz Clubcali underneath the top picks offers the best value in a race that could produce a price.
Race 4 — Maiden Claiming ($32,000), 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $26,000, Fillies 3YO
Post Time: 2:04 PM PT
Pace Analysis
Lady Detective (PP6) has shown the most speed in recent starts and figures to be on or near the lead. Tulavia’s World (PP4) pressed the pace in her debut and should be in close attendance. Definitely Prbable (PP3) also has some tactical speed. The pace projects as honest to fast, with Lady Detective leading and Tulavia’s World pressing.
Key Contenders
Lady Detective (PP6) drops from maiden special weight to maiden claiming ($32,000) and switches from turf to dirt after an improved second start. She sped to the lead in a turf sprint, led to inside the eighth pole, then tired. Now she faces easier company, shortens from 6 1/2 furlongs to 6 furlongs, and the surface switch to dirt should help her speed sustain. Jockey Diego Herrera and trainer George Papaprodromou have her well-placed here.
Tulavia’s World (PP4) showed more than her fourth-place debut finish suggests. She was bumped at the start, did not break cleanly, then zoomed forward to press from second before retreating in the stretch. With a race under her belt and a clean break, she figures as a serious contender. Jockey Tiago Josue Pereira has her positioned for a front-running or pressing trip.
Secondary Choices
Definitely Prbable (PP3) drops from maiden-50 and shortens to a sprint after losing her punch in both recent starts around two turns. Trainer Michael McCarthy (19% win rate at the meet) spots her well here with the distance reduction.
Longshots
Susie’s Loaded (PP1) draws the rail and gets Abel Lezcano in the irons. As a first-time starter at a maiden claiming price, the odds should be generous. Maggie O’Hooligan (PP5) is another McCarthy trainee at this level, offering a potential value angle.
Selections
Win: Lady Detective (PP6)
Place: Tulavia’s World (PP4)
Show: Definitely Prbable (PP3)
Wagering strategy: Lady Detective on top of exactas keyed to Tulavia’s World and Definitely Prbable. A defensive trifecta using Lady Detective and Tulavia’s World on top with Definitely Prbable and Susie’s Loaded underneath captures the most likely scenarios.
Race 5 — Maiden Claiming ($50,000), 6 1/2 Furlongs Turf, Purse $35,000, 4&5YO
Post Time: 2:34 PM PT
This is the beginning of the Pick 6 sequence with a $40,088 carryover and an estimated pool exceeding $300,000.
Pace Analysis
A large field of 12 runners in a maiden claiming turf sprint. Soi Ngern (PP5) has speed and is racing into condition making his third start back from an extended layoff. Gordon’s Legacy (PP1) and Woodson (PP2) may also show early foot. The pace scenario projects as moderate to honest given the field size, which should allow for horses with some tactical positioning to have a fair shot.
Key Contenders
Loch n’ Pharoah (PP9) ran a decent fourth-place comeback, finishing willingly despite being completely void of early speed after trailing the field. It was his first start in over a year. With a prep under his belt, the sibling to stakes winners Mei Ling and Medaglia Gold can improve enough to handle this modest maiden-claiming lineup. Second start off the layoff is a potent angle, and trainer Jeff Bonde knows how to have one ready second time back.
Woodson (PP2) ships in from Kentucky and drops from better races. This is his first start on turf, but his pedigree supports the switch, and he faces much easier competition than he saw in the Midwest. Trainer Peter Eurton is always respected.
Secondary Choices
Sand Bagger (PP8) is a seven-start maiden making his first start since last winter/spring, when he reeled off three straight third-place finishes at this class level over this turf course. He knows the course, the distance, and the level. The concern is the long layoff, but he could fire fresh.
Soi Ngern (PP5) has speed and is making his third start back from a layoff. Racing into form, he could take them on a merry chase on the front end.
Longshots
English Icon (PP4) for Mark Glatt (17% win rate) and Johnson’s Magic (PP3) for John Sadler both have the pedigree and connections to pop at a price. In a 12-horse maiden claimer on turf, a bomb is always possible.
Selections
Win: Loch n’ Pharoah (PP9)
Place: Woodson (PP2)
Show: Sand Bagger (PP8)
Wagering strategy: This is the start of the Pick 6. Use Loch n’ Pharoah and Woodson as primary picks. Spread to Sand Bagger, Soi Ngern, and one or two longshots in multi-race wagers. In a large-field maiden claimer, keeping the ticket wide here protects against chaos.
Race 6 — Maiden Special Weight, 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $70,000, Cal-bred F&M 4&5YO
Post Time: 3:07 PM PT
Pace Analysis
Tiger of the Sea (PP6) is the clear speed of the field and figures to show the way from the gate. All in the Game (PP3) has closing ability and will sit a few lengths off the pace. Dad’s Bad Bunny (PP1) stalks from mid-pack. With Tiger of the Sea likely on a solo lead, the pace should be moderate and set up for a potential wire-to-wire effort, especially at the abbreviated 5 1/2-furlong distance on dirt where speed carries well at Santa Anita.
Key Contenders
Tiger of the Sea (PP6) is the speed of the field and can wire this Cal-bred maiden dirt sprint. She missed by a neck last out on turf, and there is no reason the Smiling Tiger filly will not handle dirt. She had a legitimate excuse for her only poor dirt start (stumbled, wide), and she benefits from shortening from six furlongs to five and a half. Trainer Brian Koriner is 14-for-26 (54%) with maiden favorites over the past two-and-a-half years. Jockey Emisael Jaramillo has been riding at a 28% win rate recently. This is the Best Bet of the day.
All in the Game (PP3) was probably best last out in a similar spot. She broke a half-step slow, recovered to chase inside, rallied wide, appeared to have all the momentum, then missed by a nose. With a clean start and more economical trip, she probably wins that race. Jockey Juan Hernandez adds significant firepower. She is the clear alternative to the top pick and the main exacta partner.
Secondary Choices
Dad’s Bad Bunny (PP1) finished a promising third in her comeback after nearly a year away. Second start back, she should show improvement. Kyle Frey (16% win rate) has been riding well.
Joyful Mischief (PP2) is a 14-start maiden with seven in-the-money finishes. She will pass horses late but may find Tiger of the Sea too far gone.
Longshots
Judy Lynn Starr (PP5) debuts for D. Wayne Baker with Epifanio Garcia aboard. First-time starters at this level are always a risk, but the morning line of 8/1 (or 7/1) is worth a small ticket inclusion if you like the connections.
Selections
Win: Tiger of the Sea (PP6)
Place: All in the Game (PP3)
Show: Dad’s Bad Bunny (PP1)
Wagering strategy: This is the Best Bet of the day. Tiger of the Sea warrants a confident win and place bet. Key Tiger of the Sea over All in the Game and Dad’s Bad Bunny in exactas. In the Pick 6, Tiger of the Sea can be singled or used with All in the Game as the primary two.
Race 7 — Pasadena Stakes, 1 Mile Turf, Purse $100,000, 3YOs
Post Time: 3:37 PM PT
Pace Analysis
This is the feature race of the day. The pace scenario is critical. Smoovin Saturday (PP1) has early speed and could try to dictate terms from the rail. Brigante (PP7) may also show some early foot. Greenwich Village (PP2) has learned to ration his speed and could sit mid-pack. The pace projects as moderate. Greenwich Village showed a new dimension in his last start when he came from well off the pace, which suggests he will not be pressing the pace here. With Smoovin Saturday and perhaps Brigante offering the early fractions, the pace should be honest enough for the closers to have their shot without being too fast for the stalkers.
Key Contenders
Greenwich Village (PP2) is the one to beat. The improving Quality Road colt showed a new dimension in his last start when he took back to last and produced an impressive kick to win the Baffle Stakes, a turf sprint. This versatility is a positive as he stretches to a mile for the first time. The last three winners of the Pasadena Stakes exited the same sprint race that Greenwich Village won. That historical pattern is powerful. Trainer Bob Baffert has him in the right spot, and jockey Juan Hernandez is the meet’s co-leading rider. He is assigned 120 lbs as a non-winner of a sweepstakes at a mile or over, giving him a weight advantage over some rivals.
Unrivaled Time (PP6) was compromised by circumstances last out, finishing third in a similar turf mile stakes. He was caught wide in a five-horse field, trailed while the leaders set slow fractions, and finished evenly. He did not receive a fair chance. This bigger field includes more speed, so the pace should be legitimate, and Unrivaled Time will have his chance rallying from behind, similar to his maiden win at Santa Anita and his Grade 3 win at Del Mar. He carries 124 lbs as a sweepstakes winner, which is a 4-pound disadvantage vs. most of the field. Jockey Diego Herrera rode him in his G3 win and knows the horse.
Secondary Choices
Sammy Davis (PP4) is speed, trying turf for the first time. Sired by Sir Prancealot and out of a turf-route stakes winner, the surface switch should suit. He finished second last out in the Cal Cup Derby on dirt, so the class is there. Jockey Hector Isaac Berrios and trainer John Sadler have him well-prepared.
Later Than Planned (PP5) was close behind Greenwich Village in the Baffle Stakes and rates next best according to form analysts. The Philip D’Amato trainee has the pedigree for turf routing and gets Tiago Josue Pereira aboard. At probable odds of around 4/1, he offers value as a horse that has already shown he can compete with the top pick.
Longshots
Iriseach (PP9) is another D’Amato trainee with an Irish pedigree. He finished second behind Stark Contrast two starts back, which is solid form for this group. At around 8/1, he represents D’Amato’s strong hand with turf horses and could be the value play.
Medici (PP10) gets Mirco Demuro aboard for Richard Mandella. The presence of Mandella in a stakes race for three-year-olds on turf always commands respect. At 10/1 or better, he is worth including in exotic wagers.
Army Man (PP8) is a second McCarthy trainee (behind Smoovin Saturday) and gets Florent Geroux. At 12/1, he rounds out the deep McCarthy/Geroux connection.
Selections
Win: Greenwich Village (PP2)
Place: Unrivaled Time (PP6)
Show: Later Than Planned (PP5)
Wagering strategy: Greenwich Village is the logical top pick but is likely to be a short price (projected 3/1 or less). The value play is underneath. Key Greenwich Village on top of exactas to Unrivaled Time, Later Than Planned, and Sammy Davis. In trifectas, use Greenwich Village on top, Unrivaled Time and Later Than Planned in second, and spread underneath to include Sammy Davis, Iriseach, and Medici. For the Pick 6, Greenwich Village can be singled if the budget is tight, or paired with Unrivaled Time for safety.
Race 8 — Allowance Optional Claiming ($20,000), 1 Mile Dirt, Purse $70,000, Cal-bred 4YO+
Post Time: 4:07 PM PT
Pace Analysis
This Cal-bred dirt mile features a competitive group. Refocus (PP5) and Stolen Treasure (PP4) are likely to be forwardly placed, while Oubabe (PP3) can press or stalk. The pace projects as moderate with two or three horses sharing the early lead, which should set up for a fair pace scenario favoring horses near the front.
Key Contenders
Refocus (PP5) makes his third start back from a layoff. He spent much of his career on turf but perhaps prefers dirt, having won two of his first four starts on dirt before moving to turf where he was frequently foiled. He perked up last out when he returned to dirt and finished second in a fast sprint. Now he stretches back to a mile, and if his sprint form translates to a route, he can set or press the pace and win. Trainer Doug O’Neill and jockey Edwin Maldonado are a dependable team.
Stolen Treasure (PP4) was compromised by a wide trip last out, finishing fourth after losing considerable ground. It was a possibly better-than-looked effort by the Cal-bred stakes-placed veteran. Trainer Mark Glatt has him well-placed to get a better trip from this inside post. Jockey Ricardo Gonzalez is solid.
Secondary Choices
Oubabe (PP3) also had a wide trip last out, finishing far back, but he has run races on both turf and dirt that are fast enough to win this. Jockey Juan Hernandez on a Leonard Powell trainee is always dangerous in a Cal-bred allowance. At 7 years old, he has plenty of seasoning.
Majestic Palisades (PP6) finished second at this level last out and therefore is a contender. He has the recent form to be a factor, but post 6 in a mile dirt race is not ideal.
Longshots
Whiskyginandbrandy (PP7) is a 4-year-old for trainer Steve Knapp, who also saddles The Gypsy Cowboy (PP2). Knapp frequently has his Cal-bred horses ready to fire, and the 124 lbs assigned suggests the horse has earned some money. At a price, he is worth including in exotics.
Selections
Win: Refocus (PP5)
Place: Stolen Treasure (PP4)
Show: Oubabe (PP3)
Wagering strategy: Refocus on top of exactas to Stolen Treasure and Oubabe. In the Pick 6, this is a competitive race that merits using three or four horses. Refocus, Stolen Treasure, and Oubabe as the primary three, with Majestic Palisades as a backup.
Race 9 — Allowance, 6 1/2 Furlongs Downhill Turf, Purse $70,000, Cal-bred F&M 4YO+
Post Time: 4:37 PM PT
Note: Bessie Coleman (PP7) has been scratched. Lamporghini (PP5) is listed as also-eligible.
Pace Analysis
The downhill turf course at Santa Anita is unique in North American racing, with a right-handed turn, a hill start, and a crossing of the main track. Course experience matters here. Legal Fiction (PP2) and Goodnight Nellie (PP10) may show some early speed. The pace should be moderate given the nature of the downhill course, where horses need to navigate the unique terrain before settling into stride.
Key Contenders
Garden Party (PP4) is the top pick after winning a starter allowance last out. She looked good in that victory and does not meet any world-beaters in this state-bred allowance field. Her third-place finish three back in a turf sprint would be fast enough to win this race from off the pace. Jockey Mirco Demuro and trainer Leonard Powell are a capable team.
Christel Clean (PP6) figures among the favorites off a respectable runner-up finish in a similar race at six furlongs. She had a perfect trip pressing the pace in that effort and figures for a similar trip here. The challenge is whether 6 1/2 furlongs on the downhill course is a reach beyond her best distance. Jockey Hector Isaac Berrios and trainer John Sadler are strong connections.
Secondary Choices
Lamporghini (PP5), if she draws in, ran like a mare that needed a comeback last out. Off eight months, she set/pressed to deep stretch before faltering. Second start back, she is likely to improve. Her turf sprints here last winter put her in the hunt.
Legal Fiction (PP2) gets Florent Geroux aboard for Doug O’Neill. She may show early speed and try to dictate terms.
Long Mayshe Reign (PP8) for Mark Glatt and Goodnight Nellie (PP10) for Andy Mathis are both contenders with jockeys Ricardo Gonzalez and Juan Hernandez, respectively.
Longshots
Nell’s Legacy (PP3) for D’Amato gets Emisael Jaramillo. At a price, D’Amato’s turf prowess makes her worth including. Clubhouse Cutie (PP14) gets Mirco Demuro (who also rides Garden Party at PP4 — check for jockey switches if there are scratches).
Selections
Win: Garden Party (PP4)
Place: Christel Clean (PP6)
Show: Goodnight Nellie (PP10)
Wagering strategy: Garden Party is the top pick but this is a large, competitive field of Cal-bred fillies and mares. Use Garden Party and Christel Clean as the primary two in the Pick 6 and spread to Goodnight Nellie, Long Mayshe Reign, and Legal Fiction underneath in trifectas.
Race 10 — Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile Turf, Purse $70,000, Cal-bred Fillies 3YO
Post Time: 5:07 PM PT
Pace Analysis
This Cal-bred maiden turf mile to close the card features 11 fillies, most of them lightly raced or making their route debut. Cash in Toknight (PP2) has shown speed and is stretching out for the first time. Gogotiz (PP6) may also show some early foot. The pace projects as moderate to slow, as many of these are routing for the first time and jockeys may be conservative.
Key Contenders
Risky Pleasure (PP3) is the tepid choice, stretching to a mile after a closing fifth in her sprint comeback. She is a full sister to Cal-bred turf-route stakes winner Moments Pleasure, and this route represents the first time she has put together successive starts without a layoff. Improvement is likely second start back, first time going long. Jockey Diego Herrera and trainer Craig Anthony Lewis have her pointed for this.
Cash in Toknight (PP2) has speed and stretches out for the first time. She is quick enough to set the pace if she chooses, and a wire-to-wire trip is possible in a race where few have route experience. Trainer Doug O’Neill and jockey Emisael Jaramillo are a proven combination.
Secondary Choices
Vicky Lyn (PP5) goes long off a decent fourth-place comeback sprint. Jockey Juan Hernandez and trainer Brendan Galvin are solid connections for a second-start-back scenario.
Goje (PP4) stretches out and figures to be forwardly placed in her first route and first turf start. Trainer George Papaprodromou and jockey Florent Geroux make an interesting combination.
Longshots
Tate Batz (PP11) gets Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith aboard for Doug O’Neill. At a price, Smith’s presence on any horse demands respect, especially in a wide-open maiden race. Baby Needs Shoes (PP7) for trainer Peter Miller gets Antonio Fresu, who has been one of the meet’s hottest riders.
Selections
Win: Risky Pleasure (PP3)
Place: Cash in Toknight (PP2)
Show: Vicky Lyn (PP5)
Wagering strategy: This Cal-bred maiden turf mile is extremely tough to decipher. Use Risky Pleasure, Cash in Toknight, and Vicky Lyn as the primary three. Add Goje and Tate Batz in exotics. In the Pick 6, spread wide here — this is a race where a longshot could easily upset, and the potential value in the carryover pool makes it worth using four or five runners.
Jockey Notes and Insights
Juan Hernandez is the co-leading rider at the meet, tied with Kazushi Kimura at 19 wins through early February. Hernandez is Santa Anita’s dominant jockey, having won nine jockey titles at the track. He is a tremendous judge of pace with the ability to break on top when necessary, and he possesses the intangibles that make him the go-to rider on the Southern California circuit. Today he has significant mounts in Race 2 (Infinity Dream), Race 6 (All in the Game), Race 7 (Greenwich Village), and Race 8 (Oubabe). His mount in the Pasadena Stakes on Greenwich Village is the featured ride of the day.
Kazushi Kimura has been one of the breakout stories of the meet, riding at a 14% win rate and tied with Hernandez for the meet lead. He won the Jockey of the Week award earlier this meet for his opportunistic ride aboard Ambaya in the Grade I American Oaks, where he picked up the mount after Antonio Fresu was injured. Today he has key mounts in Race 1 (Ghostwritten), Race 2 (Moonlit Courage), Race 5 (Soi Ngern), and Race 10 (America’s Mark).
Antonio Fresu has been riding at an impressive 18% win rate this meet. He has key assignments in Race 1 (Koekkoek) and Race 7 (Iriseach), both for Philip D’Amato, who is one of the leading trainers at the meet.
Hector Isaac Berrios is riding at a strong 21% win rate and has assignments aboard Dinkum (Race 1), Sammy Davis (Race 7), and Christel Clean (Race 9).
Emisael Jaramillo has been riding at a 9% win rate overall but has hot streaks, including a recent 28% clip. He has a loaded book today with mounts in seven races, including Tiger of the Sea (Race 6, the Best Bet).
Florent Geroux, a national-caliber rider, brings his talent to several mounts today including Miyako (Race 3), Army Man (Race 7), Legal Fiction (Race 9), and Goje (Race 10).
Mirco Demuro, the Italian-born star jockey, adds international flair with mounts including Charisma (Race 5), Medici (Race 7), and Garden Party (Race 9).
Trainer Notes and Insights
Phil D’Amato has won eight training titles at Santa Anita and is the track’s leading trainer during recent meets. His 2-for-3 record this meet with European shippers in maiden races makes Koekkoek (Race 1) a strong play. He also saddles Later Than Planned and Iriseach in the Pasadena Stakes (Race 7) and Nell’s Legacy in Race 9. D’Amato’s turf horses are always respected, and his win rate at the meet is approximately 14%.
Michael McCarthy is one of the meet’s top trainers with a 19% win rate and five stakes wins through mid-February. He saddles three horses in the Pasadena Stakes: Smoovin Saturday (PP1), Army Man (PP8), and Bust Out (PP11). He also has Definitely Prbable (Race 4), Maggie O’Hooligan (Race 4), and Stan Theman Musial (Race 1).
Tim Yakteen is running at a 17% win rate this meet and recently had Secured Freedom work for a possible San Felipe start. He trains Ghostwritten (Race 1), the top pick in the opener.
Bob Baffert has eight stakes wins at the meet through mid-February, more than any other trainer. He sends out Greenwich Village (Race 7) in the Pasadena Stakes as the likely favorite.
Leonard Powell trains Unrivaled Time (Race 7), Garden Party (Race 9), and Oubabe (Race 8). Powell has been effective with turf horses at Santa Anita, and Unrivaled Time is his leading stakes contender today.
Jonathan Thomas is running at an elite 21% win rate this meet, an unusually high clip. He saddles Sharons Pharoah (Race 1), a first-time starter worth monitoring.
Richard Mandella, a Hall of Fame trainer, has Moonlit Courage (Race 2) in a claiming race and Medici (Race 7) in the Pasadena Stakes. Any time Mandella enters at a maiden claiming level, the horse deserves a look.
Brian Koriner is 14-for-26 (54%) with maiden favorites over the past two-and-a-half years, making Tiger of the Sea (Race 6) a powerful play as the Best Bet.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The centerpiece wagering opportunity today is the Pick 6 beginning in Race 5, carrying a $40,088 carryover with the estimated pool exceeding $300,000. Here is the recommended approach:
Pick 6 Strategy (Races 5-10): The key to attacking this Pick 6 is identifying single or near-single candidates and spreading in the volatile races. Race 6 (Tiger of the Sea) is the strongest single candidate. Race 7 (Greenwich Village) can be a two-horse play with Unrivaled Time. Races 5, 8, 9, and 10 are spread races where multiple horses deserve inclusion.
A suggested Pick 6 ticket:
Race 5: Loch n’ Pharoah, Woodson, Sand Bagger (3 horses)
Race 6: Tiger of the Sea (single)
Race 7: Greenwich Village, Unrivaled Time (2 horses)
Race 8: Refocus, Stolen Treasure, Oubabe (3 horses)
Race 9: Garden Party, Christel Clean, Goodnight Nellie (3 horses)
Race 10: Risky Pleasure, Cash in Toknight, Vicky Lyn, Tate Batz (4 horses)
Total combinations: 3 x 1 x 2 x 3 x 3 x 4 = 216 combinations at $0.50 = $108 base cost
Best Bet of the Day: Tiger of the Sea (PP6, Race 6) at a morning line of 5/2. She is the speed of the field, shortening in distance, switching to a surface she should handle, and trained by a barn with a 54% strike rate with maiden favorites. A straight win/place wager here is the strongest single-race play on the card.
Value Plays:
Koekkoek (PP8, Race 1) at 9/2 morning line represents the D’Amato Euro-shipper angle, which is 2-for-3 at the meet. At this price, a win bet and inclusion in multi-race wagers is warranted.
Later Than Planned (PP5, Race 7) at projected odds of around 4/1 offers value in the Pasadena Stakes as a horse that ran close to Greenwich Village last out. He is a logical exacta and trifecta partner underneath the favorite.
Iriseach (PP9, Race 7) at around 8/1 is another D’Amato turf horse in the Pasadena with legitimate form. He is an overlay candidate if the public focuses on Greenwich Village and Unrivaled Time.
Princess Midnight (PP5, Race 3) offers value in a wide-open starter allowance turf sprint. The closers-friendly configuration of the six-furlong turf sprint enhances her late-running style.
The Sunset Pick 6 carryover of $23,783 and the Super High 5 carryover of $16,854 also present wagering opportunities worth monitoring.
Morning line odds for the Pasadena Stakes (Race 7) as projected: Greenwich Village 3/1, Later Than Planned 4/1, Sammy Davis 9/2, Unrivaled Time 5/1, Iriseach 8/1, Brigante 10/1, Medici 10/1, Army Man 12/1, Bust Out 15/1, Smoovin Saturday 15/1, Caro Buono 20/1.
