Friday’s card at the Spa features 10 races with first post at 1:10 PM ET. The highlight of the afternoon is the Smart and Fancy Stakes in Race 9, a competitive turf sprint for fillies and mares. Weather conditions and track surface will play crucial roles, particularly for the turf races with the rail positioned at 27 feet.
Jockey and Trainer Notes
Brad Cox continues his dominant meet, sitting atop the trainer standings. The Louisville-based conditioner has been particularly effective with class drops and surface switches. Irad Ortiz Jr. leads all jockeys with 42 wins and a 23.1% strike rate, making any mount of his worth serious consideration. His brother Jose Ortiz ranks second with 39 wins.
Race-by-Race Analysis & Picks
Race 1 – Maiden Special Weight (Turf, 1 1/16M)
Post Time: 1:10 PM
This New York-bred maiden special weight on turf features promising newcomers and horses switching to their preferred surface.
TOP PICK: #7 Honoree (3-1)
Expert consensus favorite who was rained off the turf in his debut. Bred specifically for grass racing and should improve significantly with experience on his preferred surface. George Weaver has been red-hot this summer, adding confidence to this selection.
OVERLAY: #6 Newlyn (8-1)
Debuts for the hot George Weaver barn. His dam is a half-sister to Grade 1-placed router Normandy Invasion, suggesting stamina for the distance. Strong pedigree play at attractive odds.
CONTENDER: Head of Plains Entry (2-1)
The #1A Caroline St. Beat portion of this entry draws attention for Miguel Clement. His dam was a multiple stakes winner on turf from a strong female family.
Race 8 – $50,000 Claiming (Turf, 1M)
Post Time: 5:12 PM
A competitive claiming race for fillies and mares that have never won two races. The field is deep with class droppers and form improvers.
BEST BET: #5 Will Not Be Swayed (2-1)
The Brad Cox and Irad Ortiz Jr. combination is lethal, boasting impressive statistics together. This filly takes a significant class drop and may benefit from the added distance to close into. Cox excels with horses dropping in class, and this represents a prime spot.
VALUE PLAY: #10 Boxed Wine (8-1)
Drops in class and cuts back to a more suitable distance. Should be competitive from mid-pack with Ricardo Santana Jr. aboard. The post position is challenging, but the class relief is significant.
CONTENDER: #7 Starlight Dancer (3-1)
Consistent performer with five places in ten career starts. Ran well against similar competition last time and figures to be in the mix from mid-pack.
Race 9 – Smart and Fancy Stakes (Turf, 5 1/2F)
Post Time: 5:45 PM
The featured stakes race of the day brings together a competitive field of turf sprinters, with last year’s winner seeking to repeat.
WIN BET: #6 Future Is Now (6-5)
The defending champion has been in brilliant form, winning four of her last five starts including last month’s Grade III Caress Stakes. This Maryland-bred specialist excels at this exact distance and has hit the board in all five Saratoga appearances. Paco Lopez has ridden her in eight straight races, providing valuable continuity. Trainer Michael Trombetta maintains a 43% win rate with Lopez.
UPSET SPECIAL: #4 Ellen Jay (3-1)
Coming off a longer layoff but has been perfect since switching to turf with three wins in three tries. This daughter of Covfefe possesses sharp early speed that could steal the race if the pace sets up favorably.
LONGSHOT VALUE: #1 Gal in a Rush (12-1)
May not be the primary win candidate at this distance, but could capitalize on a quick early pace with plenty of speed signed on. Represents excellent value in the exotics.
Race 10 – $90,000 Maiden Special Weight
Post Time: Final Race
The nightcap features promising horses seeking their first victory.
TOP SELECTION: #8 Solo Jim (7-2)
Showed a strong closing kick in his most recent effort despite a sluggish start. Needs pace to run at, which this field should provide. The class and breeding suggest he’s ready to break through.
INTERESTING NEWCOMER: #6 Inspeightofcharlie (12-1)
Victor Espinoza’s only mount of the day for Barclay Tagg. When a top jockey takes just one mount, it often signals confidence. Debuts against a field full of questions, making him an intriguing longshot.
CONSISTENT THREAT: #9 Kaz Oil Changer (4-1)
Retains Irad Ortiz Jr. after consecutive place finishes. Returns to a more manageable distance against a lesser field, positioning him well for his first victory.
Wagering Strategy
Single Race Plays:
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Race 8: #5 Will Not Be Swayed to win
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Race 9: #6 Future Is Now to win and place
Multi-Race Sequences:
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Late Pick 3 (8-9-10): Key #5 in Race 8, spread in the stakes, use top three selections in the finale
Exotic Plays:
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Race 9 Trifecta: 6/1,4,8/1,3,4,5,8 ($15 investment)
The Cox-Ortiz combination in Race 8 presents the day’s strongest betting proposition, while Future Is Now offers solid value as the defending stakes winner returning in career-best form. Focus on these two as anchor plays while exploring value opportunities in the supporting races.
