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The Pick Pony Handicapper’s Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts and are generally more accurate.

Tampa Bay Downs kicks off its third day of the 2025-2026 centennial meet with a nine-race card today. The meet began on November 19 and will continue through May 3, 2026, marking 100 years of racing at the Oldsmar oval. Today’s card features a mix of maiden claiming, claiming, and starter optional claiming races, with purses ranging from $18,500 to $28,000.​

The card includes four dirt sprints, two dirt routes, two turf routes, and one dirt sprint at seven furlongs. First post is scheduled for 12:40 PM ET (11:40 AM CT), with the final race at approximately 4:42 PM ET.​

Weather and Track Conditions

Weather conditions for today’s racing are excellent. Temperatures will reach a high of 82°F with partly to mostly cloudy skies and only a 7% chance of precipitation. Winds will be light from the southwest at 5-10 mph. The track opened this morning with the dirt rated as Fast and the turf course rated as Firm.​​

The portable turf rail remains set at 22 feet to protect the inside portion of the turf course following recovery from last year’s hurricane damage. Despite the rail placement, jockeys reported during opening week that the turf course is in excellent condition with no discernible bias toward early speed or closers.​

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

Tampa Bay Downs is generally considered one of the fairest tracks in the country with no pronounced bias, though historical data reveals some tendencies worth noting.​

For dirt sprints at six furlongs, early speed horses have won approximately 43% of races, with posts 1-3 showing a slight advantage. At seven furlongs, the track plays much more fairly, with early runners, stalkers, and closers all winning at comparable rates.​

For dirt routes, posts 4-6 have historically produced the most winners, particularly at the mile and 1/16 distance where middle posts won 50% of races last season.​

On the turf, closers have dominated route races at Tampa Bay Downs, winning well above average while early runners struggled to hit 20% win rates. Inside posts (1-3) have won 39% of one-mile turf races, making inside draws advantageous in today’s turf events.​

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Race 1 — Maiden Claiming $10,000-$8,000

Post Time: 12:40 PM ET

Six furlongs on dirt for maidens, three years old and upward. Purse $18,500.

Pace Analysis

This race shapes up with moderate early pace. So Grand (9) and Star of Abraham (7) both show fast early speed tendencies, while Battle Warrior (3) profiles as a fast leader who should press from the outside. Woodlander (10) drew the far outside but shows stalking tendencies that may help him save ground. The pace should be honest but not suicidal, setting up for horses with tactical speed.

Key Contenders

Battle Warrior (3) ships in from Keeneland with trainer Michael B. Campbell, who is making his first start of the meet. This 3-year-old gelding has been facing $20,000 maiden claimers and drops significantly in class here. He shows fast leader running style with Ademar Santos aboard, who boasts a 21% win rate and 57% in-the-money rate. The class drop makes him the horse to beat.​

Woodlander (10) debuts locally for trainer David Fisher, who also owns this Hard Spun gelding. Despite winless form in three starts at higher levels including Churchill Downs and Ellis Park, the significant class drop here could spark improvement. Jockey Alonso Quinonez wins at 22% and posts a strong 52% in-the-money rate.​

So Grand (9) finished third in his debut at Keeneland on October 11 and shows early speed. Trainer Scooter Davis wins at 30% from just 10 starts, an impressive clip. Rosario Montanez has the mount.​

Secondary Choices

Arrow Ghost (6) has six career starts with one third-place finish, showing the stalking style that works well at Tampa sprints. Sara Hess rides for trainer Martin Paramo.

Star of Abraham (7) is a Florida-bred making his local debut after a start at Laurel. He shows fast early foot and the inside-middle post should help.

Amaury M.V.P. (8) has Sonny Leon in the irons for trainer Hernan Parra. Leon won four races on Saturday and is riding with confidence.​

Longshots

Tiztimonial (2) makes his first start since being reported as gelding for trainer Jose Delgado, who wins at 17% with a 55% in-the-money rate. First-time geldings can improve sharply.​

Selections

Win: Battle Warrior (3)
Place: Woodlander (10)
Show: So Grand (9)

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Race 2 — Claiming $8,000

Post Time: 1:12 PM ET

One mile and 40 yards on dirt for three-year-olds and upward which have never won three races. Purse $19,000.

Pace Analysis

This route race has several horses with early tendencies that could create an honest pace. Dangerous Driver (1) and King Freud (4) both show front-running capabilities. The one-turn mile configuration favors tactical speed rather than pure closers.

Key Contenders

El Chispazo (2) is the class of this field for owner-trainer Juan Arriagada, the track’s leading owner for three consecutive seasons. This 3-year-old won back-to-back races at Presque Isle Downs this summer and finished second twice at Tampa last winter. The stretch out to a mile-and-40-yards is a question, but his talent is undeniable. Ademar Santos rides.​

Vino Couragio (8) gets the services of Pablo Morales for trainer Joel Campbell. Morales is an experienced Tampa veteran who excels at placing horses perfectly. This 3-year-old ships in from Colonial Downs and Saratoga with solid form.​

King Freud (4) finished second last out and has back class from higher-level races. Samuel Marin picks up the mount for trainer Juan Carlos Avila.

Secondary Choices

Dangerous Driver (1) has the rail and shows early speed. He could get loose on the front end if the pace scenario develops favorably.

Artwell (7) ships in for trainer Michelle Castillo with Wesley Ho aboard. He has tactical speed and has hit the board in five of eight career starts.

Performance Plus (6) returns from a layoff for trainer Victor Carrasco Jr. with Jose Batista up.

Longshots

Kalinba (6) drops from $14,000 to $8,000 level and could find this easier. Cesar Gonzalez rides the 6-year-old gelding at 30-1.

Selections

Win: El Chispazo (2)
Place: Vino Couragio (8)
Show: King Freud (4)

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Race 3 — Maiden Claiming $16,000 (Two-Year-Olds)

Post Time: 1:42 PM ET

Six furlongs on dirt for maiden two-year-olds under International Medication Protocol. Purse $21,500.

Pace Analysis

This is a contentious race with several first-time starters making pace projection difficult. Giggity (1) has the fastest lead style from limited experience, while Efata (8) shows stalking tendencies. Without known quantities, expect a moderate pace.

Key Contenders

I’m Mischievous (4) makes his career debut for trainer Michael Dini, who wins at 19% with a 49% in-the-money rate. Samuel Marin has the call, and the leading rider connection makes this first-timer dangerous. Dini is known for having his horses ready to run first out.​

Willing One (3) makes his second start after a sixth-place finish at Delaware Park on September 28. Trainer Kathleen O’Connell, the defending meet champion, has a strong 18% win rate and 35% in-the-money clip. Antonio Gallardo rides, and O’Connell has been known for improving her runners in their second starts.​

Efata (8) shows the highest win probability in predictive models with a 25% win projection and 91% show probability. This Jose Delgado trainee has made three starts, all on turf, and now switches to dirt for the first time. Sonny Leon rides for this statistically strong barn.​

Secondary Choices

Be Wiser Bob (9) is a second O’Connell runner who debuted at Delaware in August. Santos picks up the mount, and the O’Connell-Santos combination is solid.

Giggity (1) has the most experience with five starts and two seconds. He shows the fastest lead style and the rail post helps in Tampa sprints.​

Judy Chop (2) has three starts for trainer Kevin Rice with Gaddiel Martinez aboard.

Longshots

Magnus Gold (6) debuts for trainer Carlos Narvaez with Ubardo Casique up at 15-1.

Fifteen Hundred R (7) made one start at Gulfstream, finishing fifth of nine.

Selections

Win: I’m Mischievous (4)
Place: Willing One (3)
Show: Efata (8)

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Race 4 — Claiming $25,000

Post Time: 2:12 PM ET

Six furlongs on dirt for three-year-olds and upward which have never won three races. Purse $23,800.

Pace Analysis

This race has several horses capable of showing early speed. R N R Audible (5) has tactical speed, while God With Us (1) could try to establish position early. The pace appears moderate with several stalking types who may wait for a setup.

Key Contenders

Big Louie (4) drops from higher levels after solid efforts, including a win at Tampa last April. Trainer Steven Dye has this 5-year-old primed, and Samuel Marin has been in the zone early this meet with six wins in the first two days. Form figures of 914445 suggest consistency.​

Arrogancy (8) returns to Tampa where he won in January for trainer Kathleen O’Connell. This 4-year-old gelding by Maximus Mischief has won twice in 18 career starts with ten placings. Sonny Leon picks up the mount, and O’Connell excels at placing her horses properly.​

R N R Audible (5) has solid early speed and class for trainer Tim Padilla. Alonso Quinonez has shown good form early in the meet.

Secondary Choices

Gianluca Be Lucky (6) is trained by Juan Carlos Avila with Daniel Centeno aboard. Centeno has won one of his first eight mounts and typically improves as the meet progresses.​

Call the Cavalry (3) is listed on scratch watch due to veterinarian issues. If he runs, he has tactical speed for trainer Tena Birdwell.​

Double Echo (7) shows improving form for trainer Martin Escobar with Jose Ferrer riding.

Longshots

God With Us (1) has apprentice Ronaldo Rodriguez claiming seven pounds, bringing weight down to 108. The rail is favorable for dirt sprints at Tampa.

Selections

Win: Big Louie (4)
Place: Arrogancy (8)
Show: R N R Audible (5)

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Race 5 — Maiden Claiming $16,000 (Two-Year-Olds, Turf)

Post Time: 2:42 PM ET

One mile on turf for maiden two-year-olds under International Medication Protocol. Purse $21,500. This race may be moved to the main track at one mile and 40 yards if conditions warrant.

Pace Analysis

Turf routes at Tampa have strongly favored closers historically. Early speed horses win under 20% of turf route races here, making late runners the play. The inside posts (1-3) have won 39% of one-mile turf events, giving horses drawn inside an advantage.​

Key Contenders

Distinct (4) is listed on scratch watch but could run for trainer Wesley Ward. Ward is renowned for developing young horses, and his entries always demand respect. Jacqueline Davis has the call. If scratched, the race changes significantly.​

Gideon (14) is the other Ward trainee entered from the also-eligible list. Pablo Morales would ride if drawn in. Ward shippers to Tampa often run well despite the distance traveled.​​

Giulio Cesare (8) has Samuel Marin riding for trainer Carlos David. The hot jockey connection makes this first-timer interesting at 4-1 morning line.

El Orejon (10) debuts for trainer Jose Gallegos with Cipriano Gil aboard at 7-2. The outside draw hurts in turf routes, but he shows promise based on morning line odds.

Secondary Choices

Star Prince (9) is trained by Steven Dye with Ademar Santos riding. This Kentucky-bred showed promise in his debut at Gulfstream.

Hard Talk (1) has the rail advantage with Marcos Meneses up for trainer Rory Miller.

Polizon (6) is trained by Antonio Sano, who has a 4% win rate but a 41% in-the-money clip. Antonio Gallardo has the mount.​

Longshots

Night Raven (5) is another Sano trainee with Jose Ferrer riding at 20-1.

Bravo Brody (7) has the bug rider Cesar Gonzalez at 30-1 for trainer Brian Lusk.

Selections

Win: Distinct (4) (if runs) or Giulio Cesare (8)
Place: Gideon (14) or Star Prince (9)
Show: El Orejon (10)

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Race 6 — Claiming $6,250

Post Time: 3:12 PM ET

One mile and 40 yards on dirt for fillies and mares three years old and upward. Purse $21,500. Florida-breds preferred.

Pace Analysis

This race has several horses with early speed capabilities. Stormy Mitole (5) and Miggi (1) both show front-running tendencies. The pace should be honest, setting up for stalkers and closers.

Key Contenders

Stormy Mitole (5) returns to Tampa after racing at Monmouth Park and Meadowlands. This daughter of champion sprinter Mitole won at Monmouth in June and has two wins from 11 career starts. Jose Delgado trains, and Sonny Leon rides for this potent connection.​

Lady Dominance (2) has experience and consistency at this level. Gabriel Maldonado rides for trainer Victor Carrasco Jr.

Viking Queen (6) shows improving form with Miguel Vasquez aboard for trainer Renaldo Richards.

Secondary Choices

Omikami (3) is trained by Ralph Baez with Gaddiel Martinez up. She has solid form at this level.

Sweet Desantis (9) has Charlie Marquez riding for trainer M. Anthony Ferraro.

Red Eleanor (10) reunites with jockey-trainer team of Scott Spieth for the husband-wife connection.​

Longshots

Crossati (4) is listed main-track-only but could prefer the dirt surface. Sara Hess rides for trainer Pedro Posadas.

Mia’s Angel (7) has Santos riding for trainer David VanWinkle at 15-1.

Selections

Win: Stormy Mitole (5)
Place: Lady Dominance (2)
Show: Viking Queen (6)

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Race 7 — Claiming $25,000 (Turf)

Post Time: 3:42 PM ET

One mile on turf for three-year-olds and upward which have never won two races. Purse $22,500. This is a condition eligibility race that may move to dirt if necessary.

Pace Analysis

The large 14-horse field makes pace projection complex, but turf closers have dominated at Tampa historically. The inside posts hold a significant advantage in turf routing, making draws 1-3 particularly favorable.​

Key Contenders

Chicago Theatre (1) has the rail for trainer Thomas Proctor with Pablo Morales aboard. This 4-year-old son of Medaglia d’Oro won at Tampa on the turf in January and is bred to excel on grass. The rail draw is optimal for turf routes here.​

Sebastianthe First (9) is listed main-track-only on scratch watch but ships from Belmontat the Big A for trainer Jose Delgado. If the turf remains firm, he may scratch.​

Trackster (6) has Antonio Gallardo riding for trainer Joseph Orseno. Gallardo is a five-time Tampa riding champion who excels on the turf.​

Secondary Choices

Persisten (4) is trained by Juan Carlos Avila with Samuel Marin up. The hot jockey could make this one dangerous.

Rockingham Joe (5) has Chris Landeros riding for trainer William Downing.

Just Comply (7) has Jose Ferrer aboard for trainer Michael Dini.

Longshots

Music Jewel (2) has Anthony Rodriguez riding for trainer Arthur Agostini. The inside post helps.

Tony B (3) ships from Finger Lakes for trainer Daniel Damen with Carlos Eduardo Rojas up.

Max Swagger (8) is listed as also-eligible and may not draw in.

Selections

Win: Chicago Theatre (1)
Place: Trackster (6)
Show: Persisten (4)

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Race 8 — Starter Optional Claiming $12,500

Post Time: 4:12 PM ET

Seven furlongs on dirt for fillies and mares three years old and upward. Purse $28,000.

Pace Analysis

At seven furlongs, Tampa plays fairly with early runners, stalkers, and closers all winning at comparable rates. Sweet Nola has shown tactical versatility, while Ritabook and Three Run Bolt have early speed. Expect moderate early fractions.​

Key Contenders

Sweet Nola (3) is the standout performer in this field for owner-trainer Juan Arriagada. This 5-year-old mare has won six of nine starts since being claimed, including victories at both Tampa and Presque Isle. She has posted six wins and three seconds in that span, earning over $117,000. Antonio Gallardo rides for this dominant connection.​

Awesome Pic (8) has Sonny Leon riding for trainer Enrique Hernandez. She has been competitive at this level.

Ritabook (5) shows early speed for trainer Victor Carrasco Jr. with Jose Batista aboard.

Secondary Choices

Tortuga Island (4) is on scratch watch due to stewards inquiry from her last start. If she runs, Alonso Quinonez has the call for trainer Scott Becker.​

Twizzle (7) has Samuel Marin riding for trainer Juan Bacallao Vega.

Castagna (2) is trained by Alejandro Mendieta with Martina Rojas up.

Longshots

Three Run Bolt (6) has Edwin Gonzalez aboard for trainer Gerald Bennett, the nine-time leading trainer.​

She’s a Joy (1) has apprentice Victor Lara with his seven-pound allowance for trainer Lennox Preudhomme.

Selections

Win: Sweet Nola (3)
Place: Awesome Pic (8)
Show: Ritabook (5)

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Race 9 — Maiden Claiming $10,000-$8,000

Post Time: 4:42 PM ET

Six furlongs on dirt for maiden fillies and mares three years old and upward. Purse $18,500.

Pace Analysis

This large 14-horse field has several horses capable of showing early speed. Maca Abarrio (1) and Lady Lyla (4) may contest the early lead. The pace could be contested, setting up for stalkers and closers.

Key Contenders

Rancho Vista (9) is trained by J. David Braddy with Samuel Marin in the irons. The hot jockey makes any horse dangerous in these spot plays.

Maca Abarrio (1) has the rail with Sonny Leon riding for trainer Gerard Ochoa. The inside draw helps in dirt sprints.

Lady Lyla (4) has experience and Gaddiel Martinez riding for trainer Martin Paramo.

Secondary Choices

New Centsation (2) has apprentice Kleiner Mejias with a 10-pound allowance for trainer Juan Carlos Avila.

Kintap (5) has Cesar Gonzalez aboard for trainer Kelly Spanabel, carrying just 113 pounds.

Khozanall (10) is listed as also-eligible and on scratch watch.​

Longshots

Sunny Monday (6) has Richard Mitchell aboard for trainer Robert Drake.

Steady Flo (7) carries just 112 pounds with Johanis Aranguren for trainer Gerald Bennett.

Chacarera (14) has Noel Herman riding for trainer Juan Carlos Avila at 112 pounds.

Selections

Win: Rancho Vista (9)
Place: Maca Abarrio (1)
Show: Lady Lyla (4)

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Jockey Notes and Insights

Samuel Marin enters today as the hottest rider in the colony after winning four races on Saturday, giving him six victories in the first two days of the meet. The defending riding champion rode in 17 of the 18 races during the first two days and has named mounts in seven races today. His agent Mike Moran has positioned him on live horses throughout the card, and his 20% win rate makes him a must-use in multi-race wagers.​

Sonny Leon, the 2022 Kentucky Derby winner aboard Rich Strike, finished fifth in the Tampa rider standings last season. He is closing in on 1,000 career victories and has shown early form with one win from 11 mounts through the first two days. His experience and tactical ability make him dangerous in route races.​

Antonio Gallardo, the five-time Tampa riding champion, has ridden more than 2,700 winners in the United States. He excels on the turf and has a strong connection with trainer Kathleen O’Connell. His 11% win rate and 43% in-the-money clip make him a reliable option.​

Pablo Morales has been a Tampa fixture for nearly 25 years and brings veteran savvy to every mount. His 21% win rate in 2025 reflects his continued excellence. He has excellent tactical judgment in turf routes.​

Daniel Centeno has won six Tampa riding titles and reached 3,000 career North American victories at Tampa. His 14% win rate and 53% in-the-money statistics make him dependable in exotics.​

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Trainer Notes and Insights

Kathleen O’Connell is the defending Tampa Bay Downs training champion, having won her fourth local title last season. The winningest female trainer of all time with over 2,500 career victories, she has exceeded $1 million in earnings for 27 consecutive years. Her 18% win rate and 35% in-the-money clip make her a consistent threat, particularly with second-time starters. She has runners in Races 3 and 4 today.​

Jose Delgado has established himself as a formidable Tampa trainer, finishing second in the standings last season. His 17% win rate and strong 55% in-the-money percentage indicate he rarely runs a horse who doesn’t have a chance. He has runners in multiple races today including Stormy Mitole in Race 6.​

Juan Arriagada has won the leading owner title three consecutive seasons and ranks high in trainer standings. His horses have won at a 27.8% clip on dirt, making him particularly dangerous on the main track. Sweet Nola and El Chispazo represent his barn today.​

Wesley Ward may have two horses in Race 5 (Distinct and Gideon) and brings his renowned ability to develop young horses. His entries deserve respect despite the long ship from Kentucky.​​

Gerald Bennett, the nine-time Tampa training champion, turned 80 this year but shows no signs of slowing down. He posted a victory, second, and third from his first three starters of the meet.​

Michael Dini trains I’m Mischievous in Race 3 and has a 19% win rate with a 49% in-the-money clip. His first-time starters often run well.​

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Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The most playable races on today’s card are Race 2, Race 8, and Race 1, which offer the clearest contenders and logical betting opportunities.

Race 8 features Sweet Nola as an overwhelming favorite at 1-1, but her consistent form (6 wins, 3 seconds in her last 9 starts) justifies heavy investment. Consider using her as a single in Pick 3 and Pick 5 sequences, then spreading underneath in exactas with Awesome Pic and Ritabook.​

In Race 2, El Chispazo offers solid value at 4-1 morning line given his back-to-back wins at Presque Isle and proven Tampa form. He could be a strong Daily Double bridge horse from Race 1.​

Race 1 presents an interesting spot for Battle Warrior at 3-1 on the class drop from Keeneland $20,000 maiden claimers to $10,000 level here. The significant class relief combined with Ademar Santos should produce a competitive effort.​

For multi-race wagers, the Pick 5 (Races 1-5) offers opportunities to use Sweet Nola types as singles while spreading in the contentious maiden races. Consider singling El Chispazo in Race 2 and Sweet Nola in Race 8 in Pick 3 and Pick 4 sequences.

The turf races (5 and 7) merit caution due to large fields and the presence of several scratch watch horses. Chicago Theatre has excellent value at 9-5 in Race 7 given his rail draw and prior Tampa turf victory, but the large field adds risk.​

Samuel Marin deserves attention on every mount, particularly I’m Mischievous (Race 3), Big Louie (Race 4), and Rancho Vista (Race 9). His hot hand could continue throughout the card.​

Value longshot plays to consider include Tiztimonial (Race 1) as a first-time gelding at 15-1, and God With Us (Race 4) at 12-1 with the seven-pound apprentice allowance and favorable rail draw.