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Tampa Bay Downs presents a nine-race card on Sunday, featuring a diverse mix of maiden claimers, claimers, and a featured allowance optional claiming event on turf to close out the day. The card includes four dirt races (Races 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, and 8) and three turf events (Races 5, 7, and 9), though the turf races carry the standard disclaimer that management may move them to the main track if conditions warrant.
Today is also Mouse’s Kids and Family Day, which could contribute to a larger-than-usual crowd and some added handle on the card. Post time for the first race is approximately 12:30 PM EST.
The scratch watch is active today, with several horses flagged for potential scratches across the card. Key names to monitor before placing wagers include Broken Sound (PP5, Race 1) who was a veterinarian scratch from Gulfstream Park on January 22; Bravo Kitten (PP4, Race 3) who has been scratched multiple times by stewards and as an also-eligible; China Blue (PP6, Race 4) who was a stewards scratch on February 6; and several horses in Race 5 including Alrasikh (PP4), Devilment (PP6), Skybreaker (PP13), and Mossad (PP14) who were all either also-eligible or off-turf scratches recently. Race 6 has vet scratch flags on Conspiracy Fact (PP1), Peace Cloud (PP7), and Peruvian Lucky (PP6). Race 7 shows Katarzyna (PP2) as a vet scratch flag, and Balitea (PP12), British Empress (PP5), and Lil Miss Lollipop (PP11) as also-eligible candidates. Race 8 flags Acquisitive (PP5) as a vet scratch and Nyikos (PP4) as an also-eligible. Race 9 shows Mo Trump (PP7) flagged for an off-turf scratch.
Weather and Track Conditions
The weather will be a significant factor for today’s card. The morning hours will feature mostly cloudy skies with showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms, with the chance of rain at 70 percent. Temperatures will start near 70-71 degrees but are forecast to fall into the lower 60s by mid-afternoon as a front moves through.
Winds will be the biggest story as the afternoon unfolds. West winds of 15-20 mph will shift to northwest at 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph by mid-afternoon. The rain chances diminish rapidly after 1:00 PM, with sprinkles possible through about 3:00 PM, then clearing to scattered clouds and mostly sunny skies for the later races.
The early races (1 through 4) are most likely to be affected by moisture on the main track. Expect the dirt surface to carry some moisture for the first few races, potentially labeled “good” or “muddy” before drying out to “fast” later in the day. The later dirt races (6 and 8) should benefit from drying conditions and the strong northwest winds. The turf races (5, 7, and 9) could be impacted if sufficient rain falls in the morning. If management deems the turf course unsafe, Races 5, 7, and 9 would move to the main track, fundamentally altering the dynamics of those events. Handicappers should have backup plans for off-turf scenarios in those three races.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
Tampa Bay Downs is generally regarded as one of the fairer tracks in the country, but clear and exploitable tendencies have emerged during the 2025-2026 meet.
In dirt sprints, early speed has been the dominant running style, winning approximately 49 percent of races through the meet. Posts 1-3 hold a meaningful advantage, winning roughly 45 percent of the time. However, in the most recent weeks, posts 4-6 surged significantly in dirt sprints, and stalkers remain competitive and cannot be dismissed. The data clearly favors horses who can secure a forward position early, especially when drawn inside.
In dirt routes, early runners have won approximately 42-44 percent of races, with inside posts 1-3 winning at a 50 percent clip. Posts 4-6 are close behind at 40 percent, making outside posts a genuine disadvantage in two-turn dirt races. This creates a measurable edge for horses with natural speed drawn inside.
On the turf, the story is dramatically different. Closers have been dominant, winning at a 51-52 percent clip over the course of the meet. Early speed has struggled badly in turf routes, winning under 20 percent of the time. This is the strongest playable bias on the card. In turf races today, bettors should lean heavily toward runners with closing styles and discount front-running types. Additionally, stalkers surged in recent weeks, and posts 1-3 went 6-for-8 in turf routes during one measured period, suggesting inside draws with tactical speed or closing ability are the strongest profiles.
The potential for a wet track in the early races could further amplify the inside speed bias on dirt, as a moisture-laden surface often favors horses who save ground along the rail and avoid deep going on the outside.
Race 1 — Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $25,000
Post Time: 12:30 PM EST
Six older maidens line up for the opener, a six-furlong dirt sprint for four-year-olds and upward at the $25,000/$20,000 claiming level. This is a modest group that has not been able to break through, and class levels are thin. The race could be contested on a wet or drying surface given the morning rain forecast.
Pace Analysis
This shapes up as a race without blazing early speed. R Winchester (PP3) and Gators Reign (PP1) both show some early interest in their prior running lines, but neither is a confirmed gate-to-wire type. Senor Resplandor (PP6) may also be forwardly placed. With no single dominant speed horse, the pace should be moderate, which could set up a wire-to-wire effort or favor a presser who sits just off the leader. The inside post draw for Gators Reign gives a potential rail advantage under the sprint bias.
Key Contenders
R Winchester (PP3) is the consensus top choice at a projected 9-5 on the morning line. Trained by Victor Barboza Jr. and ridden by Samy Camacho, this four-year-old colt draws a favorable inside post in a dirt sprint where posts 1-3 have been winning at a high clip. Camacho is one of the most experienced riders in the colony, a five-time Tampa Bay Downs champion who knows this track as well as anyone. The Barboza barn sends out two of the six entrants, which suggests the stable is looking for a breakthrough with at least one of them. R Winchester should be forwardly placed from the break and has the tactical advantage of an experienced jockey in a short field.
Secondary Choices
Gators Reign (PP1) draws the rail, which is a significant asset in dirt sprints under this meet’s bias profile. Trained by Ricky N. Davis and ridden by Jose C. Ferrer, a veteran Tampa Bay rider, this five-year-old gelding has been around the track and should be able to use the inside path to stay in contention through the lane. In a short field with a moderate pace, the rail draw alone makes this one a contender.
Broken Sound (PP5) has the vet scratch flag from Gulfstream Park in January and may not start. If cleared to run, this Barboza trainee with Gabriel Maldonado aboard could add another dimension to the race. Monitor scratch reports before wagering.
Longshots
Senor Resplandor (PP6) is the lone non-Lasix runner in the field and draws the outside post, which works against him in the current sprint bias. Trained by Bruce Destefano with Angel Morales up, this colt would need to overcome the post disadvantage and a lack of proven form. He could be an interesting price play only if you believe the pace scenario creates a meltdown up front.
North Ship (PP4) gets a two-pound weight break at 120 lbs by entering for the lower claiming price and has Samuel Marin in the saddle. Marin is the runaway leading jockey at the meet with an extraordinary 27 percent win rate and 81 winners through mid-February. Any horse with Marin aboard deserves respect at a price.
Selections
Win: 3 R Winchester
Place: 1 Gators Reign
Show: 4 North Ship
Betting Strategy: The short field limits exotic payoffs. A small win bet on R Winchester (PP3) with a saver on Gators Reign (PP1) for place is the play. An exacta box of 3-1-4 keeps costs low in a thin field.
Race 2 — Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile 40 Yards Dirt, Purse $23,000
Post Time: 12:59 PM EST
Eight maidens go to post in a one-mile route on dirt for the $16,000 claiming tag. This is an eight-horse field of four-year-olds and upward, all geldings, which tells you these are confirmed maidens who have struggled to find the winner’s circle. The registered Florida-bred preference clause adds a local flavor. The early moisture on the track could still be a factor at this post time.
Pace Analysis
This is a route race, and the bias data heavily favor inside posts in dirt routes at Tampa (posts 1-3 winning at 50 percent). Virgin Island Nice (PP1) could use the rail to establish position early. Bad Boy Butch (PP3) also draws inside and should be tactical. With eight runners and no clear speed demon, the pace figures to be moderate to slow, which tends to favor front-end types in route races at Tampa Bay Downs.
Key Contenders
Bad Boy Butch (PP3) is the consensus top selection at a projected 6-5 morning line. Trained by Gregory D. Sacco, who posted a 32.4 percent win rate on dirt during the 2023-2024 meet, and ridden by Charlie Marquez, this five-year-old gelding draws the golden post 3 inside position. Sacco is one of the most reliable trainers at this track, and the inside post draw in a dirt route is a significant structural advantage. Bad Boy Butch should be able to secure a forward position early and grind through the stretch.
Secondary Choices
Virgin Island Nice (PP1) has the rail draw and blinkers on, which could provide additional focus for a horse that needs to establish position early. Trained by Robert Drake and ridden by Richard Mitchell, this four-year-old gelding gets first-time equipment and the rail, both potential positive changes. The 50 percent win rate from posts 1-3 in dirt routes makes any inside runner worth serious consideration.
Skyliner (PP4) trains for Debra Donaldson with Adrian Flores aboard. Post 4 sits just outside the prime bias zone, but with a moderate pace and a field of eight, a stalking trip from that position could work if the horse has the quality to sustain a rally.
Longshots
Zimbawee (PP2) carries only 112 pounds with apprentice Marvin Fernandez, trained by Pablo R. Torres. The weight break is significant, and post 2 is in the sweet spot for the route bias. At a likely generous price, this one could be a sneaky underneath exotic play.
Matty B Good (PP7) at 115 pounds with Cesar Gonzalez up for Joseph W. Mazza has the weight advantage but draws outside, which is a negative in this configuration.
Selections
Win: 3 Bad Boy Butch
Place: 1 Virgin Island Nice
Show: 2 Zimbawee
Betting Strategy: Bad Boy Butch (PP3) looks like the most likely winner and may be short odds. Use him on top of exactas keying to 1, 2, and 4 underneath. A trifecta with 3 on top, 1-2-4 in second, and 1-2-4-8 in third provides coverage at a reasonable cost.
Race 3 — Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles Dirt, Purse $20,500
Post Time: 1:28 PM EST
A claiming event for fillies and mares, four years old and upward, who have never won three races. The $8,000 claiming tag and multiple allowance conditions create several weight variations. This is a two-turn dirt route, which again favors inside posts and forward runners under the current bias.
Pace Analysis
With seven runners and a mix of running styles, the pace should be contested but not suicidal. Ask the Monarch (PP1) and Smart Style (PP3) may vie for early position. Mischievous Trick (PP5) could stalk from just off the pace. The two-turn distance at Tampa typically allows stalkers and mid-pack runners to get involved, but the bias still favors those who can stay close to the pace through the first call.
Key Contenders
Mischievous Trick (PP5) is the consensus selection at 7-2 on the projected morning line. Trained by M. Anthony Ferraro and ridden by Charlie Marquez, who gets the call for the second consecutive race, this four-year-old filly has the class edge in a field of non-winners of three. Ferraro is a solid conditioner at this meet, and Marquez has been riding with confidence.
Secondary Choices
Ask the Monarch (PP1) draws the rail with Samuel Marin aboard, trained by Kathleen O’Connell. O’Connell is a multi-time Tampa Bay Downs champion trainer who consistently places her horses in spots where they can compete. The rail in a dirt route is premium real estate, and Marin’s presence in the irons elevates any horse he rides. This filly could dictate terms from the inside.
Smart Style (PP3) has Angel Morales up for trainer Roger Laurin and draws post 3, which is in the bias sweet spot. The inside draw and early pace ability make this one a contender at what should be a decent price.
Longshots
Bravo Kitten (PP4) has the multiple scratch flags and may not run. If she draws in, her recent form is questionable.
Early Delivery (PP7) with Jose A. Leon for Rachel Lynn Lopez Olmeda draws outside but could benefit if the pace collapses up front. A pure longshot play underneath in exotics.
Selections
Win: 5 Mischievous Trick
Place: 1 Ask the Monarch
Show: 3 Smart Style
Betting Strategy: Mischievous Trick (PP5) is a fair price at 7-2. Use in exactas over Ask the Monarch (PP1) and Smart Style (PP3). A small win bet on Ask the Monarch as a saver given the Marin-O’Connell combination and rail draw.
Race 4 — Claiming, 1 Mile 40 Yards Dirt, Purse $23,000
Post Time: 1:58 PM EST
This is a claiming race for fillies and mares at the $6,250 level, a route of one mile and 40 yards on dirt. Eight runners face the starter, and the allowance conditions give weight breaks to horses without recent route wins. This is the lowest claiming class on the card, which means form can be unreliable and upsets are common.
Pace Analysis
Several runners in here have shown early speed tendencies. Lady Dominance (PP1) from the rail could grab the lead early. Classic Ballad (PP2) with Daniel Centeno aboard may also press forward. Pola of Trouble (PP5) could be in the mix early. With multiple speed types engaged, the pace could be honest enough to set up a closer, but the inside bias in dirt routes still gives an edge to those who can secure position from the rail.
Key Contenders
Queen Atlas (PP7) is the consensus top pick at 9-2 on the projected morning line. Trained by Tena Birdwell with Fausto Henrique Da Silva aboard, this four-year-old filly carries 121 pounds, two more than most of the field. The outside post is a negative in dirt routes, but the class and form must stand out to be the consensus choice from that position. Da Silva is a capable rider who can navigate traffic.
Secondary Choices
Classic Ballad (PP2) gets Daniel Centeno in the irons for trainer Gerald S. Bennett. Centeno is a veteran with strong turf numbers, but he also performs well on dirt and knows Tampa Bay Downs intimately. Bennett has been a consistent top-five trainer at this track for multiple meets. The inside post 2 draw in a dirt route is a significant advantage, and the Centeno-Bennett combination is worth backing at a price.
Lady Dominance (PP1) draws the rail with Marcos Meneses up for trainer Tim Schuh. This eight-year-old mare has been around and has experience at this level. The rail draw is the strongest asset, and in a $6,250 claimer, sometimes the trip is more important than the talent.
Longshots
Lizzie Baby (PP3) with Huber Villa-Gomez for Kevin Rice draws post 3 in the bias zone. At a likely generous price, she could be a sneaky play underneath in trifectas.
China Blue (PP6) was flagged as a stewards scratch on February 6 and may not run. If she does start, the post 6 draw is workable but not ideal.
Play Free Bird (PP8) draws the outside but has Jose A. Batista aboard for Ramon Davila Aguayo. The wide post is a major negative in this configuration.
Selections
Win: 7 Queen Atlas
Place: 2 Classic Ballad
Show: 1 Lady Dominance
Betting Strategy: This is a low-level claiming race where chaos reigns. Spread in trifectas using 7 and 2 on top with 1, 3, and 5 underneath. The $6,250 claiming level often produces overlays, so look for the best price at post time.
Race 5 — Maiden Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles Turf, Purse $23,000
Post Time: 2:28 PM EST
A large field of fourteen maidens is entered for this turf route at the $16,000 claiming level. This is the first turf race of the day, and the morning rain creates uncertainty about whether it will stay on the grass. If the turf course is deemed unfit, this race moves to 1 mile and 40 yards on the main track, which would completely change the handicapping dynamics. The turf bias at Tampa Bay Downs this meet strongly favors closers, who have won at a 51-52 percent clip.
Pace Analysis
With fourteen runners (subject to scratches), there is bound to be some early speed in the mix. Xiao Long (PP1), Flamefire (PP2), and possibly Chilly Cheesesteak (PP7) could show early foot. The large field should generate an honest pace, which is a setup for closers on the turf. The bias data overwhelmingly support targeting horses who come from off the pace in turf routes.
Key Contenders
No Merlot (PP3) is the consensus choice at 5-2 on the projected morning line. Trained by Michelle Hemingway and ridden by Samuel Marin, the leading jockey at the meet, this four-year-old gelding draws an inside post on the turf where posts 1-3 have been strong. Marin’s ability to save ground and find seams along the rail, as demonstrated in his recent stakes victory aboard My Boy Prince, makes him especially dangerous in turf routes. The combination of the top rider, an inside draw, and the right surface profile makes this one the horse to beat.
Secondary Choices
Alrasikh (PP4) was an also-eligible in a previous start and may or may not draw in. If he runs, Gabriel Maldonado aboard for Victor Carrasco Jr. gives him a capable connection. Post 4 is just outside the prime inside zone but still workable on turf.
Devilment (PP6) carries only 115 pounds with Cesar Gonzalez for trainer Joseph F. Orseno. Orseno is a well-regarded conditioner, and the weight break is meaningful over a route of ground. However, this horse was also an also-eligible recently, so monitor the scratch sheet.
Speaker’s Lobby (PP10) with Jesus Lopez Castanon for S. Matthew Kintz draws wide but could benefit from a closing style if the pace is contested up front. In a 14-horse turf field, closers from any post have shown they can win at this meet.
Longshots
Blue Sky’s Syl (PP11) with Charlie Marquez up for Peter Wasiluk Jr. draws outside but Marquez has been sharp all meet. A closing kick from the outside in a large field could produce a big price.
Jobu (PP5) wears blinkers for the first time with Cipriano Gil up for Timothy E. Hamm. Hamm recently made headlines with Little Thunder’s near-track-record performance. Any runner from the Hamm barn deserves a look, and the blinker addition could be a move forward.
Royal Strike (PP12) with Martina Rojas for Michael Dini. Dini has been a very active and productive trainer this meet. A longshot price in a wide-open maiden turf race could offer significant value.
Selections
Win: 3 No Merlot
Place: 5 Jobu
Show: 6 Devilment
Betting Strategy: This is a prime exotic race with a large field and potential for big payoffs. Key No Merlot (PP3) on top of trifectas and superfectas, using 5, 6, 10, 11, and 12 underneath. If the race moves to dirt, reassess entirely, as the bias profile flips to favor early speed and inside posts. A Pick 5 likely begins around this race, so this is a spreading spot.
Race 6 — Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles Dirt, Purse $26,500
Post Time: 2:58 PM EST
Nine runners are entered for this $10,000 claiming route on dirt for four-year-olds and upward. The Florida-bred preference adds local depth. Several horses on the scratch watch include Conspiracy Fact (PP1), Peace Cloud (PP7), and Peruvian Lucky (PP6), all flagged as vet scratches. If multiple scratches hit, the complexion of this race changes dramatically. By this point in the card, the dirt surface should be drying out, and the strong northwest winds will accelerate that process.
Pace Analysis
With nine entered (subject to scratches), there is enough early speed to produce an honest pace. Copazo (PP5) and Speedy Hans (PP2) may show early foot. Out Work’n (PP3) could also be forwardly placed. With multiple speed types, the pace could set up for a stalker or mid-pack runner, but the overall dirt route bias still gives an edge to early position and inside posts.
Key Contenders
Passioned (PP8) is the consensus choice at 5-2 on the projected morning line. Trained by Juan Carlos Avila and ridden by Samuel Marin, this five-year-old gelding benefits from having the leading rider at the meet in the irons. Marin’s dominance at this meet, with 81 wins and a 27 percent win rate through mid-February, cannot be overstated. The post 8 draw is the concern, as outside posts in dirt routes have been at a disadvantage, but Marin’s skill in navigating traffic and finding position could overcome the post.
Secondary Choices
Copazo (PP5) at 122 pounds with Daniel Centeno aboard for trainer Gerard Ochoa is the only ridgling in the field and carries full weight, suggesting connections are not looking for weight breaks. Centeno is a veteran rider who knows this track, and post 5 is in the middle zone that has produced winners this meet.
Pando (PP4) with Charlie Marquez for Anthony J. Granitz draws post 4, just outside the prime inside zone. Marquez has been sharp and Granitz, while not a top-tier trainer, has been competitive at the claiming level.
Mission Mike (PP9) with Samy Camacho aboard for Renaldo Richards. Camacho is the second-leading rider at the meet and a five-time track champion. Despite the outside post, Camacho’s experience in this type of race makes Mission Mike a factor.
Longshots
Speedy Hans (PP2) draws the inside with Alex Gonzalez for Enrique Hernandez. The post 2 draw is prime bias real estate in a dirt route, and if this nine-year-old gelding can muster enough early speed, the inside path could keep him in contention at a generous price.
Out Work’n (PP3) with Ubardo Casique for James Alessi. Post 3 is in the bias zone, and Alessi is a trainer who has posted a solid 20.59 percent win rate at Tampa. A forward trip from the inside could yield a decent price.
Selections
Win: 8 Passioned
Place: 5 Copazo
Show: 9 Mission Mike
Betting Strategy: Marin makes Passioned (PP8) the likely favorite, but the outside post introduces risk. Use Passioned in exactas with Copazo (PP5) and Mission Mike (PP9) and spread in trifectas with inside runners 2 and 3 underneath. This is a race where the jockey makes the horse, and Marin has been doing exactly that all meet.
Race 7 — Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile Turf, Purse $25,500
Post Time: 3:28 PM EST
Twelve fillies and mares are entered for this maiden turf route at the $25,000/$20,000 level. Several are on the scratch watch, including Katarzyna (PP2, vet), Balitea (PP12, AE), British Empress (PP5, AE), and Lil Miss Lollipop (PP11, AE). If scratches reduce the field, the pace dynamics shift. The turf closer bias is the dominant angle, with closers winning 51-52 percent of turf routes this meet.
Pace Analysis
In a field of twelve maiden fillies and mares, early speed is rarely dominant. Magica (PP1) and Katarzyna (PP2, if she runs) could show early foot. The large field and the maiden claiming conditions suggest an honest pace, which plays directly into the closer bias on the turf. Handicappers should target fillies with tactical closing styles and inside draws.
Key Contenders
Money Trail (PP9) is the consensus selection at 7-2 on the projected morning line. Trained by John G. Vinson and ridden by Chris Landeros, this four-year-old filly has the profile of a horse who could benefit from a closing kick in a large turf field. Landeros is a capable turf rider, and the pace scenario should set up for his style.
Secondary Choices
Sugar Magnolia (IRE) (PP10) is an Irish-bred trained by Kathleen O’Connell with Samuel Marin aboard. O’Connell seeking a third consecutive training title has been one of the premier conditioners at Tampa for years. The IRE breeding suggests turf affinity, and Marin’s presence makes any runner dangerous. Post 10 is wide, but closers from outside posts have been effective on the turf this meet. The lower claiming price of $20,000 gives a two-pound weight break at 121 lbs.
Katarzyna (PP2) was a vet scratch on January 14 but if cleared to run, Daniel Centeno aboard for Richard P. Sillaman and the inside post 2 draw on turf makes her interesting. Centeno has historically been one of the stronger turf riders at Tampa.
Enchant (PP4) with Samy Camacho for Michael Dini. Dini has been very active and productive this meet, and Camacho is a reliable pilot. Post 4 is just outside the prime zone but workable.
Longshots
Magica (PP1) draws the rail with Sonny Leon for Jon G. Arnett. The rail on turf has produced 16 percent winners historically, the highest single post. Even in a maiden field, the rail advantage on turf is worth a small exotic play at a price.
New Issue (PP7) with Wesley Ho for Ron G. Potts. A closing style from mid-field could benefit from the turf closer bias.
Miss Valentina (PP8) with Alonso Quinonez for Arturo Rodriguez. An outside runner in a large maiden field on turf could sneak into the picture at a generous price.
Selections
Win: 9 Money Trail
Place: 10 Sugar Magnolia (IRE)
Show: 4 Enchant
Betting Strategy: This large maiden field is built for exotic play. Key Money Trail (PP9) and Sugar Magnolia (PP10) on top of trifectas, using 1, 2, 4, and 7 underneath. The maiden turf race is one of the best opportunities on the card for a superfecta payoff. Spread aggressively.
Race 8 — Claiming, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $23,800
Post Time: 3:58 PM EST
Ten runners go six furlongs on dirt for the $16,000 claiming tag, four-year-olds and upward who have never won two races. By this point in the day, the track should be fast or nearly fast, and the sprint bias favoring early speed and inside posts should be fully in play. Acquisitive (PP5) and Nyikos (PP4) are on the scratch watch.
Pace Analysis
This is a ten-horse sprint, and several runners show early speed. Raydar Control (PP1) from the rail could establish position quickly. Career Risk (PP3) may also press forward. Burn Indy Burn (PP7) could be involved early. With multiple speed types, the pace could be contested, potentially setting up a mid-pack runner or stalker. However, the sprint bias at Tampa still gives the edge to early position and inside posts through the meet.
Key Contenders
Raydar Control (PP1) is the consensus top choice at 7-2 on the projected morning line. Trained by Dennis Ward and ridden by Jose C. Ferrer, this four-year-old gelding draws the coveted rail in a dirt sprint. Posts 1-3 have been winning at a 45 percent rate in sprints this meet, and the rail is especially potent when early speed can be established. Ferrer is a veteran Tampa rider who knows how to use the rail to his advantage.
Secondary Choices
Messi the Great (PP2) with Gabriel Maldonado for Victor Carrasco Jr. draws post 2, also in the prime bias zone. Maldonado is a capable rider who has shown steady improvement throughout recent meets, and Carrasco has had success at Tampa. The inside draw gives this one a structural edge.
Go Yoshida (PP10) with Charlie Marquez for M. Anthony Ferraro. Despite the outside post 10 draw, which is a significant negative in sprints, Marquez has been riding with confidence and Ferraro is a reliable trainer. This horse would need a perfect trip from the outside, but the class could be there.
Nyikos (PP4) with Samuel Marin for Gregory D. Sacco. If this horse draws in off the AE list, the Marin-Sacco combination is lethal. Sacco’s 32.4 percent dirt win rate and Marin’s meet-leading 27 percent win rate make this one dangerous. Monitor the scratch sheet carefully.
Longshots
Career Risk (PP3) with Israel O. Rodriguez for Kevin Rice draws post 3 in the bias sweet spot. At 123 pounds (full weight, no allowance), this horse is carrying the most weight in the field, but the inside post and early speed potential could keep him in the mix at a price.
Westminster (PP6) at only 112 pounds with apprentice Kleiner A. Mejias for Craig Robert Smith. The weight break is substantial and could make a difference in a six-furlong sprint if the horse has any ability.
Selections
Win: 1 Raydar Control
Place: 2 Messi the Great
Show: 4 Nyikos (if entered)
Betting Strategy: The rail and post 2 in a dirt sprint scream “inside speed.” Key Raydar Control (PP1) on top with Messi the Great (PP2) in exactas. Spread in trifectas with 10, 4, and 7 filling out the bottom. If Nyikos (PP4) scratches, substitute Career Risk (PP3) as a show play.
Race 9 — Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 Mile Turf, Purse $56,500
Post Time: 4:28 PM EST
The feature race of the day is the highest-class event on the card, an allowance optional claiming at a mile on the turf with a $56,500 purse and $100,000 optional claiming tag. Nine are entered for this race, which attracts the best horses on the grounds. The turf closer bias is the dominant angle here, with closers winning over 50 percent of turf routes this meet. Mo Trump (PP7) is flagged for an off-turf scratch.
Pace Analysis
This is a classier field with more defined running styles. Britain’s Kitten (PP3) could show early speed. Eamonn (PP5) and Grounded (PP2) may also be forwardly placed. With the quality of riders in this race, pace will be dictated by jockey tactics rather than running style alone. The bias strongly suggests that early speed will fade and closers will dominate, which has been the pattern all meet on turf. Expect honest fractions and a stretch run that rewards deep closers.
Key Contenders
Ejtimaa (PP1) is the consensus top selection at 5-1 on the projected morning line. Trained by Michael Dini and ridden by Sonny Leon, this five-year-old gelding draws the rail on the turf, where inside posts have been effective. Dini has been one of the most active and productive trainers at this meet, and the rail draw gives Ejtimaa a ground-saving advantage. The horse benefits from the weight allowance at 118 pounds. In the feature race with the top purse, Dini is clearly pointing to a big effort.
Secondary Choices
Sherlock’s Jewel (PP6) with Samy Camacho for Claude R. McGaughey III. The presence of “Shug” McGaughey, a Hall of Fame trainer, elevates this runner immediately. McGaughey does not send runners to Tampa Bay Downs unless he believes they can compete, and Camacho’s experience on the turf at this track is well-documented. Marin recently won aboard a McGaughey trainee on Sunday of the previous week. This horse fits the closer profile that the turf bias rewards.
Eamonn (PP5) with Samuel Marin for Joseph F. Orseno. Marin riding in the feature for Orseno is a strong combination. Orseno is a well-respected conditioner, and Marin’s ability to find seams and save ground on the turf has been exceptional this meet. The eight-year-old horse has experience and seasoning, and Marin’s dominance makes him a factor in every race he rides.
Innately Good (PP4) with Jose C. Ferrer for Nik G. Goodwin. This four-year-old colt is the youngest in the field and could be improving. Post 4 is workable on the turf, and Ferrer is a reliable veteran.
Longshots
Lets Go Koko (PP9) at only 113 pounds with Marcos Meneses for Rory C. Miller. This is the lone mare in the field, which earns the five-pound sex allowance plus additional weight breaks. The total of 113 pounds is a massive advantage over the 118 most rivals carry, and Meneses has shown he can win with live longshots. If the pace sets up correctly, this mare could fly home at a huge price.
Adios Cole (PP8) with Edwin Gonzalez for Sam Wilensky. A price play from a mid-field post who could benefit from the turf closer bias at a generous number.
Britain’s Kitten (PP3) with Israel O. Rodriguez for Kevin Rice. This seven-year-old gelding has been around, and post 3 on the turf gives an inside advantage. If he shows more tactical speed than usual, the inside draw could keep him in the mix.
Selections
Win: 1 Ejtimaa
Place: 6 Sherlock’s Jewel
Show: 5 Eamonn
Betting Strategy: This is the classiest race on the card and offers the best multi-race exotic opportunities. Key Ejtimaa (PP1) and Sherlock’s Jewel (PP6) in exactas with Eamonn (PP5) and Lets Go Koko (PP9) underneath. In trifectas, spread with 1, 5, and 6 on top over 3, 4, 8, and 9. The weight-advantaged Lets Go Koko (PP9) at 113 pounds is a prime longshot inclusion in superfectas.
Jockey Notes and Insights
Samuel Marin is the story of the meet. The 24-year-old Venezuelan has 81 wins through mid-February and is on pace to break Antonio Gallardo’s single-season track record of 147. Marin’s 27 percent win rate is the best of any jockey at the meet with at least 40 mounts. He was named Jockey of the Week for February 9-15 after posting 13 wins in a single week, including a 43 percent win rate and a stakes victory aboard My Boy Prince in the Turf Dash. Marin has five mounts today (Races 2, 3, 5, 6, and 9 based on the card), and any horse with him aboard deserves serious consideration regardless of morning line odds. His ability to save ground on the rail, find seams in traffic, and time his moves has been exceptional. He has a 28-victory advantage over second-place Samy Camacho.
Samy Camacho remains a premier rider at Tampa Bay Downs, even as Marin has surged past him. Camacho is a five-time track champion with a 23 percent win rate in 2026. He has three mounts today and brings unparalleled track knowledge to every ride.
Charlie Marquez has been riding consistently well and has multiple mounts across the card. His presence in Races 2, 3, 5, 6, and 8 gives him plenty of opportunities. Watch for him in spots where he gets live mounts at fair prices.
Daniel Centeno is a veteran rider with strong turf numbers historically, posting a 20 percent win rate on turf during recent meets. His mounts in Races 4 and 6 deserve attention, particularly on the turf if conditions allow.
Jose C. Ferrer is a reliable Tampa Bay Downs veteran who rides multiple mounts today. His experience navigating the track, particularly from inside posts, makes him valuable in sprints.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Kathleen O’Connell is seeking her third consecutive Tampa Bay Downs training title and fifth overall. She was dominant in 2023-2024 with 54 wins and a 25.5 percent dirt win rate. She has runners in Race 3 (Ask the Monarch, PP1) and Race 7 (Sugar Magnolia, PP10). Both deserve respect based on the barn’s ability to place horses in competitive spots.
Gregory D. Sacco is one of the highest-percentage trainers on dirt at Tampa, posting a 32.4 percent win rate during the 2023-2024 meet. He trains Bad Boy Butch (PP3, Race 2) and Nyikos (PP4, Race 8 if entered), making both barn staples in their respective races.
Michael Dini has been one of the most active trainers this meet and trains Ejtimaa (PP1, Race 9), the consensus pick in the feature. Dini also has runners in Race 5 (Royal Strike, PP12) and Race 7 (Enchant, PP4). His activity level suggests he is having a strong meet, and Marin recently won for the Dini barn during his five-win day.
Victor Barboza Jr. sends out two runners in Race 1 (R Winchester, PP3 and Broken Sound, PP5), indicating a two-pronged attack on the opener. The barn is clearly targeting a breakthrough with at least one of these maidens.
M. Anthony Ferraro has runners in Race 3 (Mischievous Trick, PP5), Race 5 (Mossad, PP14), Race 8 (Go Yoshida, PP10), and Race 9 (Mo Trump, PP7). The barn’s volume across the card suggests they are competitive at multiple class levels.
Joseph F. Orseno conditions Devilment (PP6, Race 5) and Eamonn (PP5, Race 9). Orseno is a respected conditioner who has operated at higher levels, and his presence at Tampa Bay Downs suggests he has live horses aimed at specific spots.
Claude R. McGaughey III, the Hall of Fame trainer, has Sherlock’s Jewel (PP6, Race 9) in the feature. McGaughey does not typically stable runners at Tampa Bay Downs in volume, so when he enters a horse, it is a deliberate and often successful move. Marin recently won for the McGaughey barn on the previous Sunday.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The card presents several structural angles that smart bettors can exploit.
The first and most powerful angle is the turf closer bias. With closers winning over 50 percent of turf routes this meet, Races 5, 7, and 9 should be approached with an aggressive bias toward horses coming from off the pace. Discount front-runners on turf and invest in closers, especially those drawn inside. If any of these races move to dirt due to weather, the bias flips dramatically to favor early speed and inside posts.
The second angle is the Samuel Marin factor. At a 27 percent win rate, Marin is not just the leading rider — he is a generational presence at this meet. Blindly backing all Marin mounts would produce a positive ROI at fair odds. Today, his most intriguing mounts include No Merlot (PP3, Race 5) on the turf, Passioned (PP8, Race 6) on dirt, and Eamonn (PP5, Race 9) in the feature. When Marin rides on turf, his ability to save ground and exploit the rail makes him especially dangerous.
The third angle is the inside post bias on dirt routes. Posts 1-3 have won at a 50 percent rate in dirt routes this meet. In Race 2 (Bad Boy Butch, PP3), Race 3 (Ask the Monarch, PP1), and Race 4 (Classic Ballad, PP2), inside-drawn runners on dirt routes deserve extra credit beyond what their form suggests.
For multi-race exotic wagering, the most compelling sequences are:
The Pick 4 beginning with Race 6 through Race 9 offers a mix of dirt and turf races with a featured allowance closer. Use Passioned (PP8) as a single in Race 6 if you trust Marin, then spread in Race 7 (maiden turf fillies), narrow in Race 8 (Raydar Control, PP1 and Messi the Great, PP2), and spread again in Race 9 using Ejtimaa (PP1), Sherlock’s Jewel (PP6), and Eamonn (PP5).
A Pick 3 from Race 7 through Race 9 is also attractive given the large maiden turf field in Race 7 and the feature in Race 9. Spreading in Race 7, singling or limiting Race 8, and using three or four in Race 9 keeps costs manageable while maximizing potential payoffs.
The best single-race value play on the card is Lets Go Koko (PP9, Race 9) at 113 pounds in the feature turf race. The five-pound sex allowance for mares plus additional weight breaks creates a significant physical edge over a route of ground on the turf. If the pace sets up favorably, and Marcos Meneses can navigate from the outside post, this mare could produce a major upset at a substantial price.
The best expected-value win bet is Ask the Monarch (PP1, Race 3), combining the rail draw, Samuel Marin, and Kathleen O’Connell in a dirt route. The 50 percent win rate from posts 1-3 in dirt routes, the meet’s leading jockey, and a champion trainer create a powerful trifecta of positive factors that may be undervalued on the tote board if Mischievous Trick (PP5) is the public favorite.
