Zia Park – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News, Analysis, Expert Picks, and AI Predictions for November 17, 2025

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The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts and are generally more accurate.

Zia Park presents a solid nine-race Monday card featuring a mix of claiming races, allowance conditions, and maiden events. The highlight races include Race 2, an Allowance Optional Claiming sprint with a purse of $55,000, and Race 9, a $62,000 allowance for New Mexico-bred horses at 6 1/2 furlongs. Several races feature competitive New Mexico-bred conditions, which tend to produce tighter finishes at this venue. The scratch watch shows Princess Kitten listed as also-eligible in Race 2, with Lonzo Who and Wegonahavagoodtime scratched due to veterinarian concerns in Race 5, and Rockitretta scratched in Race 8.​

Weather and Track Conditions

The weather forecast for Hobbs, New Mexico shows clear skies with temperatures ranging from 54°F in the early morning to highs reaching 85-88°F by afternoon racing. Humidity levels will be around 22-25% with light winds from the south-southwest at 6-10 mph creating ideal racing conditions. The track surface is listed as firm for the dirt track, which should provide excellent footing and favor horses with tactical speed. No precipitation is expected, and the sunny conditions will maintain consistent fast track conditions throughout the card favoring speed horses who can secure favorable early positions.​

Track bias at Zia Park typically plays fair across all running styles at six furlongs and longer distances, though inside posts maintain slight statistical advantages in sprint races. Posts 1 through 5 win at approximately their expected rate based on field size, while extreme outside posts face minor disadvantages requiring wider trips. At the 5 1/2 furlong distance, the chute exits directly onto the main track, minimizing traditional inside post advantages seen at many tracks. The relatively short run to the first turn at sprint distances makes the break from the gate crucial for establishing position.​

1st Race – Zia Park – Monday, November 17th, 2025

Post Time: 12:05 PM

CLAIMING. 1 1/16 Miles Dirt. Purse $26,000. Three Year Olds, 121 lbs.; Older, 123 lbs. Claiming Price $7,500.

Pace Analysis

This seven-horse claiming route features limited early speed, which should produce a moderate pace scenario. Right in Front from post 1 typically shows some early foot but rarely fights for the lead. Malibu Rain has shown tactical speed in recent starts and may be the controlling speed from the rail-saving trip. The lack of confirmed wire-to-wire types suggests horses rating off the pace will have opportunities to close late. The one mile and one-sixteenth distance favors horses with stamina and late kick over pure speed types.​

Key Contenders

Malibu Rain from post 5 represents the top selection based on recent form and jockey-trainer combination. Trainer Valdez-Cabral pairs with leading rider Da Silva, a combination that excels at Zia Park. This four-year-old gelding has shown improvement in recent starts and the drop in class to $7,500 claiming suggests connections believe he can win. The rail-saving trip at this distance provides tactical advantages through both turns.​

Upward Mobility from post 7 enters as a legitimate contender despite the outside post. Trainer Quiroz has multiple entries in this event, suggesting confidence in his stable. The horse has competed in similar company and the class drop indicates readiness. The five-year-old gelding should rate off the moderate pace and make a late run.​

Secondary Choices

Right in Front breaks from the rail under rider Arboleda for trainer Valerio. The inside post provides ground-saving advantages at the route distance, though this four-year-old has shown inconsistent form. The weight allowance helps, but past performances suggest he may lack the necessary class.​

Dennard represents experience as a seven-year-old gelding who has seen this level multiple times. Post 2 offers a favorable stalking position if he shows his usual tactical speed. The combination of Medellin and Hernandez has moderate success at the meet.​

Selections

Win: Malibu Rain (5)

Place: Upward Mobility (7)

Show: Right In Front (1)

2nd Race – Zia Park – Monday, November 17th, 2025

Post Time: 12:32 PM

ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. 5 Furlongs Dirt. Purse $55,000. Three Year Olds, 121 lbs.; Older, 123 lbs. Claiming Price $20,000.

Pace Analysis

The five-furlong sprint creates immediate pressure to establish position. Lite Ranchin Kid typically shows sharp early speed from the rail and will look to gun for the lead. All That Glory has tactical speed and should press from post 7. Multiple horses possess enough early foot to create an honest pace through the opening quarter-mile. The short distance amplifies the importance of the break, as horses losing ground early face difficult recovery scenarios.​

Key Contenders

All That Glory represents the top selection in this competitive allowance optional claiming sprint. The four-year-old colt trained by Fincher, the meet's leading conditioner, ships in with strong credentials. Rider Fuentes provides capable handling, and the combination has produced multiple winners this meet. The colt's tactical speed allows him to sit a perfect stalking trip before unleashing his closing kick in the stretch.​

Rexford from post 3 enters as a dangerous competitor for trainer Evans and jockey Valenzuela. The five-year-old gelding has faced quality competition and the return to sprint distance suits his running style. The middle post position provides options to rate early or apply pressure depending on pace development.​

Secondary Choices

Dean's List brings experience as a six-year-old horse trained by Cappellucci. The veteran has competed successfully at this level and the inside trip from post 5 offers tactical advantages. Jockey Vazquez excels at rating horses in sprint distances.​

Red Leader represents the lone three-year-old facing elders but receives a weight allowance. Trainer Valdez-Cabral and jockey Da Silva form a strong partnership that succeeds with developing horses. The four post provides flexibility in the run.​

Longshots

Lite Ranchin Kid at potential double-digit odds offers value despite the rail post. Trainer Valerio conditions the gelding for trainer Raymond Valerio, and jockey Gomez handles the likely pace-pressing assignment. If this four-year-old can clear to an uncontested lead, he may steal the race on the front end.​

Selections

Win: All That Glory (7)

Place: Rexford (3)

Show: Dean's List (5)

3rd Race – Zia Park – Monday, November 17th, 2025

Post Time: 12:59 PM

ALLOWANCE. 6 Furlongs Dirt. Purse $62,000. FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED FILLIES AND MARES. Three Year Olds, 121 lbs.; Older, 123 lbs.

Pace Analysis

This New Mexico-bred fillies and mares allowance creates an intriguing pace scenario. Hurricanes Wildcat from post 4 typically shows sharp early speed and will likely contest the early lead. Souped Up Wildcat also possesses tactical speed and may apply pressure from the outside. The six-furlong distance allows horses rating in mid-pack to save ground and make late runs. Handicappers identified this race as featuring strong early pace, benefiting closers who can navigate traffic.​

Key Contenders

Thatsaterriblidea from post 5 emerges as the consensus selection among handicappers for this New Mexico-bred allowance. Trainer Cappellucci, one of the circuit's most successful conditioners, sends out this three-year-old filly who has shown steady improvement. The weight allowance for non-winners since August provides additional advantages. Jockey Juarez possesses strong tactical skills and should rate this filly perfectly behind the expected quick early pace.​

Unbridled Beauty represents trainer Todd Fincher, the meet's leading trainer with seven wins from fifteen starters. The three-year-old filly draws post 3 under rider Vazquez, a capable combination. This filly has faced quality competition and the class relief suggests readiness for a winning effort.​

Secondary Choices

Bye Bye Holley breaks from post 1 for trainer Todd Fincher with Da Silva aboard. The three-year-old filly receives the weight allowance and the rail post provides ground-saving opportunities through the turn. The Fincher-Da Silva combination succeeds at high percentages this meet.​

Ineedamarker trains under Leroy Fincher and ships in with tactical speed. Post 2 allows jockey Valenzuela to secure good position early without expending excessive energy. The three-year-old filly has competed in similar company.​

Selections

Win: Thatsaterriblidea (5)

Place: Unbridled Beauty (3)

Show: Bye Bye Holley (1)

4th Race – Zia Park – Monday, November 17th, 2025

Post Time: 1:26 PM

MAIDEN CLAIMING. 6 Furlongs Dirt. Purse $20,000. FOR MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. Claiming Price $7,500.

Pace Analysis

The eight-horse maiden claiming sprint features several first-time starters and lightly raced types, creating uncertainty in pace projections. Held for Ransom typically shows early speed and will look to secure favorable position from post 1. I Got the Moves has demonstrated some tactical speed in previous starts. The maiden claiming level often produces unpredictable fractions, though the six-furlong distance typically favors horses with tactical speed who can secure mid-pack positions.​

Key Contenders

Held for Ransom represents the morning line favorite for trainer Cappellucci and jockey Fuentes. The three-year-old gelding draws the rail post, which provides ground-saving advantages in maiden races where horses may drift wide through turns. Trainer Cappellucci excels with developing horses and the confidence shown by making this gelding the chalk suggests readiness to graduate.​

Karaoke Hero from post 8 enters for trainer Gleason and jockey Valenzuela. The outside post presents challenges, but Valenzuela's tactical skills and ability to save ground through turns mitigate this disadvantage. The three-year-old gelding has shown improving workouts suggesting fitness.​

Secondary Choices

Hoser Satrapa represents the powerful Valdez-Cabral and Da Silva combination that succeeds with first-time starters. The three-year-old gelding draws middle post 5, allowing flexibility in the run. This combination's strong statistics with developing horses makes this gelding worth including in exotic wagers.​

I Got the Moves has race experience, which provides advantages in maiden claiming company. Trainer Green sends out this three-year-old gelding with jockey Amparan from post 6. Previous starts show this gelding understands racing and may improve with the class drop.​

Selections

Win: Held For Ransom (1)

Place: Karaoke Hero (8)

Show: Hoser Satrapa (5)

5th Race – Zia Park – Monday, November 17th, 2025

Post Time: 1:53 PM

CLAIMING. 4 1/2 Furlongs Dirt. Purse $28,000. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. Claiming Price $10,000.

Pace Analysis

Note: Lonzo Who (post 4) and Wegonahavagoodtime (post 8) have been scratched, reducing this to a six-horse field. The abbreviated 4 1/2 furlong distance creates immediate urgency to establish position. Multiple horses possess tactical speed, suggesting contested early fractions. King Adrock typically shows sharp early speed and will look to control the pace. Nostrangrtotherain also demonstrates speed and may apply pressure. The short distance leaves little room for error and favors horses breaking alertly.​

Key Contenders

With the scratches of Lonzo Who and Wegonahavagoodtime, the race dynamics shift significantly. Handicappers had identified Wegonahavagoodtime as the potential favorite before the scratch. King Adrock now assumes favoritism from post 1 with jockey Amparan for trainer Wheeler. The five-year-old gelding receives a weight allowance and has shown consistent speed in recent starts. The rail post at this abbreviated distance provides minimal disadvantage.​

Nostrangrtotherain from post 6 represents trainer Evans and jockey Gomez. Handicappers rated this five-year-old gelding as a major contender before scratches altered the complexion. This horse has competed in tougher company and the class drop suggests readiness. The outside post requires alertness from the gate but offers a clear path to secure position.​

Secondary Choices

Runningintherain now draws post 2 after scratches and brings experience as a six-year-old gelding. Trainer Cross conditions this veteran who has seen this level multiple times. Jockey Andrade provides capable handling.​

Jetfire represents trainer Barrios from post 3 with rider Carmona. The four-year-old gelding receives a weight allowance and has shown flashes of ability in recent starts.​

Selections

Win: King Adrock (1)

Place: Nostrangrtotherain (6)

Show: Runningintherain (2)

6th Race – Zia Park – Monday, November 17th, 2025

Post Time: 2:20 PM

CLAIMING. 6 Furlongs Dirt. Purse $31,500. FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED FILLIES AND MARES. Claiming Price $7,500.

Pace Analysis

The nine-horse New Mexico-bred fillies and mares claiming event features balanced early speed distribution. Forty Five from post 5 typically shows tactical speed and may press from the favorable middle position. La Bella Bella has demonstrated early foot in recent starts. The six-furlong distance allows fillies rating off the pace to make sustained runs through the stretch. Handicappers have identified Forty Five as the controlling favorite with additional support for Chasenuinmydreams.​

Key Contenders

Forty Five emerges as the consensus top selection for trainer Cappellucci and jockey Fuentes. The three-year-old filly draws the favorable post 5 position, allowing tactical flexibility. Morning line odds suggest strong public support, and the trainer's success rate this meet reinforces confidence. The weight allowance for non-winners since August provides additional advantages.​

Chasenuinmydreams represents trainer Armstrong from post 7 with jockey Gomez aboard. The four-year-old filly has shown consistent form in New Mexico-bred company and the class level suits her abilities. Handicappers rate this filly as a serious threat to the favorite.​

Secondary Choices

Artful Rose brings experience as a six-year-old mare for trainer Armstrong with Amparan riding from post 1. The rail post provides ground-saving opportunities, and this mare has competed successfully at this level.​

Caden's Girl represents the strong Valdez-Cabral and Da Silva partnership from post 4. The three-year-old filly steps into New Mexico-bred company and may find this group more manageable.​

Longshots

Silver Abstract from post 8 trained by Morales offers potential value at longer odds. The four-year-old filly carries top weight but has shown ability in previous starts. The outside post requires alertness but provides a clear early path.​

Selections

Win: Forty Five (5)

Place: Chasenuinmydreams (7)

Show: Artful Rose (1)

7th Race – Zia Park – Monday, November 17th, 2025

Post Time: 2:47 PM

MAIDEN CLAIMING. 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt. Purse $32,000. FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. Claiming Price $15,000. Lasix Free.

Pace Analysis

This nine-horse juvenile fillies maiden claiming event run without Lasix creates additional uncertainty in projecting pace and performance. Two-year-old fillies often show inconsistent early speed development, making pace projections challenging. Several fillies show tactical speed in workouts, suggesting moderate early fractions. The 5 1/2 furlong distance from the chute provides sufficient time for fillies to establish rhythm and make sustained runs.​

Key Contenders

Trump Dance represents trainer Todd Fincher, the meet's leading conditioner, from post 9 with jockey Da Silva. The Fincher-Da Silva combination excels with first-time starters and developing horses, succeeding at percentages well above circuit averages. The outside post presents challenges in a nine-horse field, but the talent of connections suggests this filly possesses the ability to overcome the disadvantage.​

Blues Money from post 3 represents trainer Cappellucci with jockey Fuentes. This trainer-jockey combination succeeds with juvenile fillies, and the middle post position provides tactical flexibility. The filly's morning workouts suggest readiness for debut.​

Secondary Choices

All Marked Up draws post 7 for trainer Cappellucci with jockey Juarez. The trainer has two entries in this event, suggesting depth in the juvenile filly division. This filly has shown strong workout patterns indicating fitness.​

Chasenmyheart represents trainer Armstrong from post 4 with rider Gomez. The filly shows tactical speed in workouts and the middle post allows her to secure position without excessive early effort.​

Selections

Win: Trump Dance (9)

Place: Blues Money (3)

Show: All Marked Up (7)

8th Race – Zia Park – Monday, November 17th, 2025

Post Time: 3:14 PM

CLAIMING. 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt. Purse $24,000. FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Claiming Price $7,500.

Pace Analysis

Note: Rockitretta (post 4) has been scratched by stewards. The nine-horse fillies and mares claiming sprint features balanced speed distribution. Channel Launch typically shows tactical speed and will look to secure favorable position. True Lovin has demonstrated early foot in recent starts. The 5 1/2 furlong distance favors fillies who can secure mid-pack positions and make sustained runs through the stretch. The fast track conditions support tactical speed horses.​

Key Contenders

Channel Launch from post 2 emerges as a strong contender for trainer Todd Fincher with jockey Da Silva. The five-year-old mare has competed successfully at this level and the favorable post position provides options. The Fincher-Da Silva combination continues to dominate the current meet with impressive statistics.​

Girls Don't Cry represents trainer Valdez-Cabral from post 7 with jockey Gomez aboard. The three-year-old filly receives a weight allowance and has shown improvement in recent starts. The class drop suggests connections believe she can compete successfully at this level.​

Secondary Choices

Just Keep Laughin from post 3 trains under Beltran Moreno with Medellin riding. The four-year-old filly draws a favorable middle post and has demonstrated consistency in similar company.​

Missionary Mary represents trainer Rust from post 10 with jockey Arboleda. The five-year-old mare has experience at this level, though the extreme outside post presents challenges in a ten-horse field.​

Selections

Win: Channel Launch (2)

Place: Girls Don't Cry (7)

Show: Just Keep Laughin (3)

9th Race – Zia Park – Monday, November 17th, 2025

Post Time: 3:41 PM

ALLOWANCE. 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt. Purse $62,000. FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEAR OLDS. Three Year Olds, 121 lbs.; Older, 123 lbs.

Pace Analysis

The ten-horse New Mexico-bred allowance finale features multiple pace threats. King of Country typically shows sharp early speed from post 2 and will likely gun for the lead. Waning Crecent also possesses tactical speed and may apply pressure. The 6 1/2 furlong distance provides sufficient time for horses rating off the pace to make sustained runs. The large field increases traffic concerns and elevates the importance of securing favorable position through the opening quarter-mile.​

Key Contenders

Stand Up Guy represents trainer Todd Fincher with jockey Fuentes from post 7. The three-year-old gelding receives a weight allowance and the powerful Fincher-Fuentes combination has produced multiple winners throughout the meet. The trainer's exceptional record at this meet suggests this gelding arrives ready for a strong performance.​

Jmark from post 6 enters as a four-year-old gelding trained by Hernandez with top weight. The gelding has competed successfully in New Mexico-bred company and the middle post position provides tactical advantages. Jockey Perez provides capable handling.​

Secondary Choices

Peekay represents trainer Armstrong from post 4 with jockey Medellin. The four-year-old gelding draws a favorable inside post and has shown consistency in similar company.​

Short Round Bound from post 9 trains under Lambert with jockey Juarez. The three-year-old gelding receives a weight allowance and has demonstrated improving form in recent starts.​

Longshots

Adiel from post 10 trained by Marlin carries top weight but offers potential value at longer odds. The four-year-old gelding has competed in tougher company, and the class drop may help. The extreme outside post requires alertness but provides a clear early path.​

Selections

Win: Stand Up Guy (7)

Place: Jmark (6)

Show: Peekay (4)

Jockey Notes and Insights

Fausto Henrique Da Silva leads the jockey standings at the current Zia Park meet with impressive statistics. The Brazilian rider excels with trainer Martin Valdez-Cabral, forming one of the circuit's most successful partnerships. Da Silva demonstrates exceptional tactical skills in sprint races and shows particular strength when rating horses behind contested early pace scenarios.​

Luis A. Valenzuela ranks among the leading riders at Zia Park with multiple wins throughout the meet. The veteran jockey shows versatility across all race conditions and distances, excelling particularly in route races where his patient riding style allows horses to conserve energy for late runs. Valenzuela's partnership with various trainers produces consistent results.​

Luis A. Fuentes maintains strong statistics at the current meet, particularly when paired with trainer Todd Fincher. The combination succeeds at percentages well above circuit averages, making any Fincher-Fuentes entry worthy of serious consideration.​

Enrique Portillo Gomez demonstrates consistency across multiple trainers and race conditions. The rider shows particular strength in sprint races where his aggressive early positioning creates opportunities for horses to secure favorable trips.​

Trainer Notes and Insights

Todd W. Fincher dominates the current Zia Park meet with seven wins from fifteen starters through early November. The conditioner's exceptional win percentage of nearly 47% significantly exceeds circuit averages. Fincher excels with developing horses and shows particular strength in allowance and maiden special weight conditions. Any Fincher entry, especially when paired with regular riders Da Silva or Fuentes, deserves serious consideration regardless of morning line odds.​

Dick Cappellucci maintains strong statistics at Zia Park with consistent results across multiple race classifications. The trainer shows particular strength with juvenile horses and fillies, often succeeding when debuting first-time starters. Cappellucci's horses typically show tactical speed and rate kindly behind pace, making them effective in races with contested early fractions.​

Martin Manuel Valdez-Cabral forms a powerful partnership with jockey Fausto Da Silva that succeeds at high percentages. The trainer excels with developing horses and shows skill in placing horses where they can compete successfully. Valdez-Cabral entries often show improving form patterns and benefit from the class drops common at Zia Park's claiming levels.​

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The strong performance of the Fincher barn suggests focusing wagering attention on his entries throughout the card. Race 2 features All That Glory in the allowance optional claiming sprint, offering potential value if morning line odds drift upward. The combination of Fincher's dominant meet and the horse's tactical speed creates an attractive wagering opportunity.​

Race 3 presents an excellent exacta construction using Thatsaterriblidea on top with Unbridled Beauty and Bye Bye Holley in the second position. Both secondary choices train under Todd Fincher, and the trainer's success rate suggests including multiple entries in exotic wagers provides value.​

The Pick 4 spanning Races 6 through 9 offers an attractive sequence featuring the Fincher-trained contenders in Races 6, 7, and 9. Constructing tickets using Forty Five in Race 6, Trump Dance and Blues Money in Race 7, Channel Launch in Race 8, and Stand Up Guy with Jmark in Race 9 provides balanced coverage of likely winners while maintaining reasonable ticket costs.​

The Daily Double connecting Races 8 and 9 presents value opportunities by combining Channel Launch with Stand Up Guy and Jmark. This sequence features two races where the Fincher-trained entries offer strong win probability at potentially attractive odds.​

Single-race exacta boxes in Race 2 using All That Glory, Rexford, and Dean's List provide coverage of the top contenders while maintaining reasonable wagering costs. The five-furlong sprint distance amplifies the importance of the break, suggesting wider coverage in exotic wagers accounts for potential trip issues.​

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