Chart Guide (2.0.38)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
⚠ Concerns:(1) Rising in class today ($5,000 → $7,500). (2) Speed average (50) well below field median (56). (3) Trip note from last race: Carried out;clear late. (4) Trainer is flat-bet PROFITABLE this year (+0.97 per $2 over 147 starts) - the betting market underprices this barn. (5) Jockey is flat-bet PROFITABLE this year (+0.43 per $2 over 160 mounts) - the market underrates this rider. (6) Trainer/jockey pairing is flat-bet PROFITABLE (+1.95 per $2 over 30 starts together) - a paying partnership the odds don't reflect. (7) Post 7 in a 13-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path. (8) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 12.3 pts: [62, 45, 30, 55, 54]) — unpredictable performer. (9) Two consecutive 5+ pt speed jumps (30 → 45 → 62) and last race speed is well above career average (50) — high bounce risk after back-to-back peak efforts.
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | D | B |
| Mid Pace | F | D |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Finish Pos | D | F |
| Dirt Speed | C | C |
| Turf Speed | D | C |
| Distance Speed | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | F | D |
| Sprint FPS | D | C |
| Route FPS | F | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | D | B |
| Mid Pace | F | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Mod1(W): 82 (1/8) Mod2(W): 75 (2/8) Mod3(W): 79 (3/8) Mod1-LS: 55 (6/8) Win Prob: 18.4% Value Score: 1.35 ★
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
TL;DR
TogglePick Pony Bet of the Day — RUN CHACHY RUN, Race 10 at Delaware Park
Don't let that 15-1 morning line fool you — Run Chachy Run (Post 7) is the kind of live longshot that serious horseplayers dream about, and Race 10 at Delaware Park on September 12th is where this horse makes believers out of the skeptics. The angles here are stacking up in a way that demands attention. We're talking a PROFITABLE_TRAINER sitting behind the reins of this spot, meaning this conditioner has a documented history of putting horses in positions to win and — more importantly — to pay. When a trainer knows how to set up a race and deliver a horse ready to fire, you listen. Pair that with a PROFITABLE_JOCKEY in the irons, a rider who has shown the ability to get every last inch out of horses at this circuit, and you already have two-thirds of a powerful trifecta of angles working in your favor.
The third piece is what really seals it: the PROFITABLE_COMBO angle tells us that this specific trainer-jockey partnership has a winning history together. That's not coincidence — that's chemistry, communication, and a shared understanding of how to get a horse home. When the same team has cashed tickets together before, the public often overlooks it, especially when a horse carries a number as big as 15-1 on the morning line. That's exactly where the value lives. The crowd will be looking elsewhere, and the books will be hanging this price out there like low-hanging fruit for the sharp money.
At 15-1, RUN CHACHY RUN doesn't need to win every day — this horse just needs to win today. With a value score of 6/10, this represents a legitimate overlay, not a desperate prayer. The angles are real, the connections are proven, and the price is generous enough to make this a no-brainer single for your Pick Pony bankroll. Circle Race 10, get to the windows early, and make sure RUN CHACHY RUN is in your ticket. This is the bet of the day — full stop.
Get the full Daily Edge Radar, Handicapper Reports, and all Pick Pony picks with a subscription!
✓ Positives:(1) Big last-race effort (62) — 19 pts above recent average. (2) Has won at today's distance (1210 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (3) Has won at DEL on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (4) Speed improved +15 pts then +17 pts in last 2 starts (30 → 45 → 62) — trainer is progressively building fitness. (5) Trainer 'NAZARIO PEDRO' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (6) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'O', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 1st — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (7) Averages 54.4 speed pts in today's distance/surface configuration vs 35.0 in other configs (7 qualifying starts) — returning to ideal setup. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Profitable Barn, Paying Partnership, Profitable Rider.