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Hollywood Casino at Charles Town Races presents an eight-race card tonight beginning at 7:00 PM Eastern. The card is headlined by a pair of allowance races at 4 1/2 furlongs (Races 4 and 5), a maiden special weight at 6 1/2 furlongs for three-year-old WV-bred fillies (Race 6), and an allowance for WV-breds at 6 1/2 furlongs (Race 7). The supporting undercard features a pair of claiming sprints (Races 1 and 3), a claiming sprint for fillies and mares (Race 2), and a starter optional claiming route at 6 1/2 furlongs to close the night (Race 8).
The recent 7.5% purse increase at Charles Town, effective since February 11, has boosted purse levels across the board and attracted competitive fields throughout the condition book.
Several scratches are worth noting before post time. In Race 2, Lil Jersey Girl (PP4) is on scratch watch for veterinarian reasons. In Race 5, T Rex Union (PP2) is also on scratch watch for veterinarian reasons. In Race 7, Kaylee’s Spitfire (PP6) may be scratched by the stewards. In Race 8, Absolute Grit (PP3), Improbable Journey (PP5), and Ray’s Blue Wagon (PP8) are all on stewards scratch watch. If these scratches hold, several races will have significantly reduced fields, which dramatically affects wagering strategy.
Weather and Track Conditions
Tonight’s weather in Charles Town, West Virginia calls for overcast skies with temperatures falling from the low 50s at first post to around 49-50 degrees by the late races. Humidity will be elevated, running between 84% and 87% throughout the evening. There is a slight chance of light sprinkles developing around 8:00-9:00 PM, with precipitation chances peaking at 21% around the 8:00 PM hour, though accumulation is expected to be negligible. One forecast source projects up to 0.08 inches of precipitation for the day with 83% humidity.
The track surface was not yet officially posted for tonight’s races at time of analysis. Given the mild temperatures (well above freezing), high humidity, and slight rain potential later in the evening, expect the dirt surface to be listed as Fast at first post with the possibility of softening to Good if sprinkles materialize in the later races. The track received no significant precipitation earlier in the week, and temperatures have been well above average this February, with the high reaching 59 degrees on Tuesday.
Handicappers should monitor the track condition updates closely, as any moisture could slightly benefit closers on a surface that overwhelmingly favors early speed. The mild, damp conditions may cause the dirt to play a touch deeper than normal.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
Charles Town is a six-furlong dirt oval with notoriously tight turns and a remarkably short stretch run. These characteristics make early speed the single most important factor at this track.
At 4 1/2 furlongs, the bias is extreme. Pacesetters win approximately 49% of all races at this distance, based on extensive sampling data. The run from the gate to the first turn is very short, which means horses that break alertly and establish position along the rail have an enormous advantage. Inside post positions (1 through 3) provide a ground-saving edge right out of the gate. Horses drawn outside, particularly post 6 and beyond, are at a significant disadvantage in these sprint dashes.
At 6 1/2 and 7 furlongs, the two-turn configuration allows for marginally more tactical flexibility. Stalkers and presser types have a better chance to win at these longer distances. However, the tight turns still penalize horses who get hung wide, making inside-to-middle draws preferable. The key at two turns is not being more than three or four lengths off the lead heading into the far turn, as the short stretch makes it very difficult to close from far back.
Tonight’s card features four races at 4 1/2 furlongs (Races 2, 3, 4, 5), one race at 7 furlongs (Race 1), and three races at 6 1/2 furlongs (Races 6, 7, 8). Speed figures to be a dominant factor in the shorter sprints, while the longer races offer slightly more opportunity for tactical runners.
Race 1: Claiming $15,000 – 7 Furlongs Dirt – Purse $21,900
Post Time: 7:00 PM ET
This is a two-turn claiming event for WV-bred four-year-olds and up that have never won two races. A compact five-horse field at seven furlongs on the dirt.
Pace Analysis
The pace scenario here is relatively straightforward. Blameitonmyroots (PP2) profiles as a front-running type who will want the lead. Ed’s Prophecy (PP5) is a mid-pack leader type who should press the pace from a tracking position. Roark (PP1) is identified as a closer with good late kick, while Tap the Arches (PP4) is the slowest closer in the field. Barapha (PP3) tends to race in mid-pack and come from deep. With only one true front-runner in the field, expect a comfortable pace scenario that favors the horse on the lead or pressing close to it.
Key Contenders
Ed’s Prophecy (PP5) is the morning line favorite at 2-1 and the top pick from multiple handicappers. This four-year-old gelding for trainer Ronney Brown and jockey Moises Santaella has the highest win prediction model score (33%) in the field and a style that places him in mid-pack early before taking over. Brown is the leading trainer at the meet with 19 wins and an impressive +3.99 in added wins, meaning he has won significantly more than the odds of his runners would predict. Santaella is the second-leading rider with 15 wins. Ed’s Prophecy has a lifetime win rate of 7% from 15 starts with earnings of $85,155 and owns a win at this 7-furlong distance at Charles Town. The trainer-jockey combination gives this horse a significant edge in a weak field.
Roark (PP1) is the co-second choice on the morning line at 2-1 with a 28% win prediction. This five-year-old gelding has been consistent with a 1-2-3 record from 15 starts and is the fastest closer in the field. He draws the rail, which at seven furlongs in a small field should not pose traffic problems. Jockey Juan Mauricio Nunez has seven wins on the year. Trainer Javier Contreras has five wins. The concern is that closers face a difficult track bias at Charles Town, and the short stretch may not give Roark enough time to get up.
Secondary Choices
Blameitonmyroots (PP2) ships in for the same Contreras barn but has very limited form: only three lifetime starts. The horse shows a 33% win rate and 67% show rate, but the sample is tiny. As the lone speed in the race, there is a legitimate scenario where this horse steals the race wire to wire if not pressured. At morning line odds of 2-1, there is no value, but the running style suits Charles Town’s speed-favoring bias.
Longshots
Barapha (PP3) at 4-1 offers some appeal as a deep closer under Jomar Torres for trainer Linda Conn, who has not won in two starts this year. With a 5% win rate from 22 starts, the form does not inspire confidence, but the mare has hit the board frequently (41% show rate). She could fill out exotic tickets.
Tap the Arches (PP4) at 9-1 for trainer Battulga Gur is the weakest runner in the field with an 11% win prediction score and the slowest closing style. The trainer is 0-for-1 on the year. This horse is hard to use.
Betting Strategy
In a five-horse field, the win pool will be concentrated. Ed’s Prophecy is the deserving favorite based on connections, running style, and ability. Consider a win/place bet on Ed’s Prophecy keyed over Roark and Blameitonmyroots in exactas. A possible upset scenario is Blameitonmyroots on the lead unchallenged; if looking for a saver, an exacta box of the top three (PP5, PP1, PP2) covers the most likely outcomes.
Selections
Win: 5 Ed’s Prophecy
Place: 1 Roark
Show: 2 Blameitonmyroots
Race 2: Claiming $15,000 – 4 1/2 Furlongs Dirt – Purse $21,900
Post Time: 7:30 PM ET
A sprint for fillies and mares four and up that have never won two races. Six entered, though Lil Jersey Girl (PP4) is on scratch watch. If she scratches, this becomes a five-horse field.
Pace Analysis
Golden Circles (PP5) is identified as the fastest leader in the field and should be on or near the lead from the start. Juba Baby (PP1) is also a fast leader type who draws the rail and will be close to the pace. Symptomatic (PP2) profiles as fast but with a deep closing style. Sweet Manhattan (PP6) stalks from mid-pack. With two speed types in Golden Circles and Juba Baby, there could be some pace pressure, but Golden Circles’ superior early speed figures should allow her to clear and control things.
Key Contenders
Golden Circles (PP5) is the heavy favorite at 1-2 on the morning line and the consensus top pick. This five-year-old mare for trainer Anthony Farrior and leading jockey Arnaldo Bocachica has a 33% win prediction and a 95% show prediction. Her recent form is strong: second, first, second in her last three at 4 1/2 furlongs at Charles Town. The Bocachica-Farrior combination is the most potent at the track, with Bocachica’s 24.36% win rate (19 wins) and Farrior’s 15 wins as the second-leading trainer. Golden Circles is the fastest leader type in the race, which at 4 1/2 furlongs where pacesetters win 49% of the time, makes her a formidable proposition.
Juba Baby (PP1) at 5-1 on the morning line deserves respect. This seven-year-old mare for trainer Christopher Keller and jockey Sunday Diaz Jr. won her last start at 4 1/2 furlongs at Charles Town and owns a strong 22% win rate with six wins from 27 starts. She also profiles as a fast leader type, which means she could press Golden Circles or even steal the race if Golden Circles stumbles from the gate. Drawing the rail is a significant advantage in a 4 1/2-furlong sprint.
Secondary Choices
Sweet Manhattan (PP6) at 6-1 has been consistent recently, running second and then seventh before finishing third last out. Trainer Ryan Gillespie has not won in 11 starts this year, which is a concern, but the mare’s 54% show rate from 13 career starts suggests she hits the board often. She stalks from mid-pack, which is a viable style if the two speed types compromise each other.
Symptomatic (PP2) at 9-2 is a veteran with $250,697 in career earnings, the most in the field. However, her recent form has been inconsistent, and trainer Edwin Tobin is 0-for-3 on the year.
Longshots
Ride to Remember (PP3) at 8-1 is a mid-pack closer that struggles at 4 1/2 furlongs. Her best recent races have come at longer distances. The 5% lifetime win rate does not help.
Betting Strategy
Golden Circles figures to be a very short price and may offer no value to win. The best play is keying her underneath in exactas and trifectas. Use Juba Baby as a possible upset candidate on top in exactas with Golden Circles for second. A trifecta key of Golden Circles with Juba Baby and Sweet Manhattan in the minor slots provides the most likely structure.
Selections
Win: 5 Golden Circles
Place: 1 Juba Baby
Show: 6 Sweet Manhattan
Race 3: Claiming $5,000 – 4 1/2 Furlongs Dirt – Purse $14,600
Post Time: 7:57 PM ET
Fillies and mares, four and up, never won three races. Seven entered at the bottom level of the claiming ranks.
Pace Analysis
This race has several horses with early speed, creating potential for a contested pace. Don’t Blink (PP5) is a slower leader type, and Midnight Pass (PP6) is the slowest leader. Kluvyameanandnasty (PP7) is the fastest closer in the field. Running Rio (PP3) and Fair Trade (PP4) both profile as mid-pack types. With multiple speed types in the field, the pace could be honest enough to set up Kluvyameanandnasty’s closing kick.
Key Contenders
Kluvyameanandnasty (PP7) is the heavy favorite at even money and the consensus top choice. This six-year-old mare for trainer Kevin Joy and jockey Victor Rodriguez has the highest win prediction score in the field at 35% with a 96% show prediction. Rodriguez is riding well with nine wins and an 18% strike rate. Joy is the third-leading trainer with 13 wins and +2.44 added wins. The concern with Kluvyameanandnasty is that she is a closer at a track that heavily favors speed at this distance. Her last three races show finishes of third, fifth, and third, which means she is running consistently but not winning. At even money, there is very little value, and the closing style carries risk.
Running Rio (PP3) at 9-2 for trainer Anthony Farrior and jockey J.D. Acosta is a mid-pack stalker who could benefit from a contested pace. Acosta is the third-leading jockey with 14 wins and the best added wins figure (+3.31) in the colony, meaning he wins more often than the odds would predict. Farrior is the second-leading trainer with 15 wins. The trainer-jockey combination provides a significant edge. Running Rio has three wins from 16 starts and a 19% win rate.
Secondary Choices
Fair Trade (PP4) at 4-1 is an intriguing contender for trainer Kevin Joy (the same conditioner as the favorite) and jockey Warren Ebow III. She has four wins from 26 starts with $224,380 in career earnings, the most in the field. She ran second in her last start at this distance and has deep closing ability. At a morning line of 4-1, she offers more value than the stablemate. However, Ebow has been struggling with only five wins and an 11.79% purse percentage.
Don’t Blink (PP5) at 5-1 for the potent Brown/Santaella combination draws attention based purely on connections. Brown is leading trainer and Santaella is second-leading jockey. This filly has two wins from 13 starts and profiles as a leader type, which is the right style at this distance.
Longshots
Tidbit (PP2) at 12-1 won her last start at 6 1/2 furlongs at Charles Town for trainer Stacey Viands (three wins, 15%) and jockey Justin Lewis (11 wins). The step down in distance to 4 1/2 furlongs is a concern, but the recent win gives her confidence.
Betting Strategy
Kluvyameanandnasty is likely to be over-bet as the heavy favorite with a closing style that does not fit the track bias. Look to beat her at short odds. Key Running Rio and Fair Trade in win bets and exactas, with Don’t Blink as a saver. A trifecta using PP3, PP4, and PP5 on top with Kluvyameanandnasty for second and third is a way to play against the chalk while still including her.
Selections
Win: 3 Running Rio
Place: 7 Kluvyameanandnasty
Show: 4 Fair Trade
Race 4: Allowance – 4 1/2 Furlongs Dirt – Purse $34,100
Post Time: 8:25 PM ET
This is a step up in class for fillies and mares four and up at the allowance level. Seven entered.
Pace Analysis
Miss Menetes (PP7) is the fastest leader in the field, and she should be forward from the start. Jlodiamond (PP1) is a mid-pack leader, and Dixie Yodeler (PP2) also tends to run in mid-pack early. Delightful Dixie (PP6) is a mid-pack closer. Gone With the Wyn (PP3) profiles as fast and deep. With Miss Menetes likely on a clear lead, the pace could be unchallenged, setting up a wire-to-wire win if she is good enough.
Key Contenders
Miss Menetes (PP7) at 2-1 on the morning line is the consensus top pick. This four-year-old filly for trainer David Rose and jockey Justin Lewis is the fastest leader type in the field, which is the ideal running style at 4 1/2 furlongs. She has two wins from nine starts (22% win rate) and an impressive 56% show rate. Lewis has 11 wins on the year. The concern is that Rose is 0-for-3 on the year and the outside post 7 is a disadvantage in a sprint. However, with her superior early speed, she should be able to cross over and secure position before the turn.
Delightful Dixie (PP6) at 2-1 is the other co-favorite. Trained by Joan Reynolds, who has a remarkable 50% win rate (three wins from six starts) and +2.18 added wins on the year. Jockey Gerald Almodovar has five wins. Delightful Dixie has five wins from 22 starts (23%) and won her second-to-last start at this distance. She is a mid-pack closer, which is a riskier style at 4 1/2 furlongs, but the connections are firing.
Secondary Choices
Jlodiamond (PP1) at 5-2 for the Brown/Santaella combination draws the inside post, which is the best draw at this distance. She has a 24% win prediction and the weight advantage at only 117 lbs. Her recent form shows a fifth in her last start, but with a second the time before. The inside draw and powerful connections make her dangerous.
Diakonissa (PP4) at 10-1 offers value. This four-year-old filly for trainer Michael Jones Jr. and jockey Jeiron Barbosa has four wins from 16 starts (25% win rate) and won two starts back at this distance. Barbosa has a 15% win rate and a solid 49% show rate from his mounts. If the favorite tires, Diakonissa could benefit as a stalker.
Longshots
Gone With the Wyn (PP3) at 15-1 for trainer Vanessa Peltroche (three wins, +1.51 added wins) has been competitive at 6 1/2 furlongs recently but may find this distance too short. Her deep closing style is problematic at 4 1/2 furlongs, though the 50% show rate career suggests she stays in the frame.
Betting Strategy
This is one of the more contentious races on the card, with three viable contenders at short odds. Miss Menetes has the right style but the wrong post. Jlodiamond has the right post but has been inconsistent. Delightful Dixie has the hottest trainer but the wrong running style. Consider a three-horse exacta box of PP7, PP1, and PP6. For trifectas, add Diakonissa (PP4) underneath.
Selections
Win: 7 Miss Menetes
Place: 1 Jlodiamond
Show: 6 Delightful Dixie
Race 5: Allowance – 4 1/2 Furlongs Dirt – Purse $34,100
Post Time: 8:53 PM ET
WV-bred allowance for four-year-olds and up that have never won two races. Seven entered, though T Rex Union (PP2) is on scratch watch.
Pace Analysis
Several horses want to be forward here. Don’t Get Cute (PP1) and Just a Wizard (PP6) are both leader types. Good Intentions (PP7) is a mid-pack leader. Aye Direct (PP5) is a mid-pack stalker. If T Rex Union scratches, the pace becomes simpler, with Don’t Get Cute and Just a Wizard likely dueling on the lead.
Key Contenders
Aye Direct (PP5) has the highest win prediction score at 38% with a 95% show prediction. This four-year-old gelding for trainer Michael Jones Jr. and jockey Jeiron Barbosa won his last start at 7 furlongs at Charles Town and owns a 9% win rate with a superb 64% show rate from 11 starts. He is a mid-pack stalker, which is a decent style if the pace is contested. Multiple handicapping sources tab him as a top contender.
Don’t Get Cute (PP1) at 9-2 from multiple sources is intriguing. This five-year-old gelding for trainer Christopher Keller (30% win rate from 10 starts, three wins) and jockey Denis Araujo (eight wins, +2.70 added wins) won his last start at this distance and draws the rail, which is the ideal post at 4 1/2 furlongs. With only two career starts, the sample is tiny (1-1-1 record, 50% win rate), but the win was at today’s exact distance and track. Araujo is one of the hottest riders at the meet, outperforming his odds more than any other jockey except Acosta.
Secondary Choices
Just a Wizard (PP6) at 6-1 for trainer Cynthia McKee (six wins, 19.35%) and jockey Sunday Diaz Jr. (10 wins) won his last start at this distance. He profiles as a leader type, which is ideal. Four career starts show a 25% win rate. McKee is a capable trainer and Diaz has been riding consistently. The outside post 6 is a negative in a sprint, but with early speed, he can overcome it.
Good Intentions (PP7) at 6-1 has a 25% win rate from four starts with a 75% show rate. He profiles as a mid-pack leader. However, jockey Gustavo Larrosa has zero wins from 14 starts this year, which is a significant negative. Trainer Ruben Reyes is also winless in two starts.
Romantic Warrior (PP4) at 2-1 on the morning line is a closer type who ran second last out. Jockey Anthony Mawing is winless from 15 starts on the year, which is a major concern. The closing style is also a negative at this distance.
Longshots
T Rex Union (PP2), if he runs, at 3-1 has the Runco barn behind him (eight wins, 21.05%) and profiles as the fastest deep runner. However, the vet scratch watch makes him unreliable. If he does run, he would be a contender based on connections alone.
Dadio (PP3) at 30-1 has virtually no chance based on recent form and the slowest stalking style.
Betting Strategy
Don’t Get Cute with the rail draw, winning connections, and speed style represents the best value play on the card at morning line odds of 9-2 in a race that favors his running style. Use him on top of exactas with Aye Direct and Just a Wizard. A trifecta key of PP1 over PP5 and PP6 with all others in third would cover the likely scenarios.
Selections
Win: 1 Don’t Get Cute
Place: 5 Aye Direct
Show: 6 Just a Wizard
Race 6: Maiden Special Weight – 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt – Purse $32,900
Post Time: 9:21 PM ET
WV-bred maiden three-year-old fillies going 6 1/2 furlongs. Eight entered in a wide-open maiden event where none of these fillies have won a race.
Pace Analysis
Lolita (PP8) is the fast lead type who should be forward from the start. Additional Factor (PP5) is a mid-pack leader. Julita Bonita (PP2) and Spicy Years (PP6) are closers. Creative Catch (PP3) has only one start and her style is unknown. The pace should be moderate with Lolita dictating things from the front, though the outside post 8 is a significant negative at this track for a front-runner trying to secure position.
Key Contenders
Lolita (PP8) is the morning line second choice at 2-1 and the top pick from multiple sources. This filly for trainer Javier Contreras and jockey Juan Nunez has been knocking on the door with an 0-3-5 record from six starts, including second in her last two races. She has an 83% show rate, which is exceptional. As the fast lead type, her running style fits Charles Town perfectly. The only concern is the far outside post 8, which at 6 1/2 furlongs with two turns could force her to use energy getting over early. Contreras has five wins on the year and Nunez has seven.
Creative Catch (PP3) at 3-1 for the Bocachica/Runco powerhouse combination is the projected favorite. With only one start (fourth at 4 1/2 furlongs), there is limited data, but the connections speak volumes. Bocachica (19 wins, 24.36%) is the leading jockey and Runco (eight wins, 21.05%) is the fourth-leading trainer. Their combined strike rate when teaming up at Charles Town is historically among the best in the colony. Post 3 is an ideal draw at this distance.
Secondary Choices
Additional Factor (PP5) at 5-1 for trainer Anthony Farrior (15 wins) and jockey Jomar Torres has two starts with a third-place finish last out at 4 1/2 furlongs. She profiles as a mid-pack leader, which works at 6 1/2 furlongs where stalking types have more opportunity. The Farrior barn has been productive all meet.
Julita Bonita (PP2) at 9-2 for trainer Kevin Joy (13 wins, +2.44 added wins) and jockey Victor Rodriguez (nine wins) has the best maiden form in the field with six starts producing three seconds and three thirds. Her 50% show rate and the Joy/Rodriguez combination give her a legitimate shot. She is the fastest closer type, which is viable at 6 1/2 furlongs.
Longshots
Spicy Years (PP6) at 15-1 offers longshot appeal for the Contreras/Santaella combination. She has six starts with one second and three thirds, showing ability without winning. At 117 lbs. (the lightest in the field), the weight advantage could help. Contreras saddling two in this race (also Lolita) suggests he is serious about both entrants.
Betting Strategy
Maiden races are inherently unpredictable, and this field is wide open. Creative Catch at 3-1 with only one start represents an unknown but has the best connections. Lolita has the best recent form but a bad post draw. Consider a wide trifecta using PP3, PP8, PP5, and PP2 on top with each other and spreading in third.
Selections
Win: 8 Lolita
Place: 3 Creative Catch
Show: 5 Additional Factor
Race 7: Allowance – 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt – Purse $36,600
Post Time: 9:49 PM ET
WV-bred allowance for four-year-olds and up, never won four races, at 6 1/2 furlongs. Six entered, though Kaylee’s Spitfire (PP6) is on scratch watch, which could reduce this to a five-horse field.
Pace Analysis
Rum N Coke (PP3) and Caffeinennicotine (PP5) are both fast leader types who want the front end. Court Tudor (PP1) is the slowest leader. Zachamundo (PP4) and Annapolis Road (PP2) are stalker types. This sets up as a potential speed duel between Rum N Coke and Caffeinennicotine, which would benefit the stalking Zachamundo and Annapolis Road.
Key Contenders
Zachamundo (PP4) is the heavy favorite on the morning line and has the highest win prediction score at 32% with an 89% show prediction. This four-year-old gelding for trainer Jeff Runco and jockey Arnaldo Bocachica has a stellar record: three wins from nine starts (33%) with a 78% show rate. He ran second in his last start and won the race before that. The Bocachica/Runco combination is the most successful at Charles Town, and their teaming here with a horse in peak form makes Zachamundo the clear top choice.
Annapolis Road (PP2) at 9-2 is the other Runco trainee in the race. This four-year-old won his last start at 7 furlongs at Charles Town and has three wins from 13 starts (23%) with a 62% show rate. Jockey Warren Ebow III carries the five-pound bug weight, bringing the load down to 117 lbs. The Runco barn has two legitimate shots in this race, which is worth noting for exacta and trifecta construction.
Secondary Choices
Rum N Coke (PP3) at 5-1 for trainer Elizabeth Meehan (one win from eight starts) and jockey Grant Whitacre (zero wins from four starts) is a front-runner with three wins from 12 starts (25%) and a 58% show rate. His running style is favorable if he can clear to the lead without a speed duel, but with Caffeinennicotine pressing, the pace could be contested. The jockey’s winless season is a red flag.
Caffeinennicotine (PP5) at 8-1 for the same Meehan barn has four wins from 18 starts (22%) with a 50% show rate. Jockey Alexis Rios-Conde Jr. has only three wins from 27 starts (9.38%), which limits confidence. This horse profiles as a fast leader who could set up the race for closers if he pushes the pace.
Longshots
Court Tudor (PP1) at 20-1 has the rail but a struggling form pattern (sixth last out). His lone recent win came two starts back. The Kirlew barn is winless in three starts. Very hard to recommend.
Betting Strategy
Zachamundo is the clear top pick and the Runco barn could easily run one-two with Annapolis Road. A straight exacta of PP4 over PP2 is the primary play, with Rum N Coke as a saver for third in trifectas. If you want to play against a very short-priced favorite, keying Annapolis Road on top of Zachamundo in exactas at higher odds could provide value.
Selections
Win: 4 Zachamundo
Place: 2 Annapolis Road
Show: 3 Rum N Coke
Race 8: Starter Optional Claiming – 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt – Purse $24,400
Post Time: 10:17 PM ET
The nightcap is a starter optional claiming event at 6 1/2 furlongs for four-year-olds and up. Nine entered on paper, but with Absolute Grit (PP3), Improbable Journey (PP5), and Ray’s Blue Wagon (PP8) all on scratch watch, this could be reduced to a six-horse field.
Pace Analysis
Tap in Formation (PP6) is identified as the fastest leader in the field and should dictate the pace. Grand Park View (PP1) and Dance for Green (PP2) also want to be near the front. Tour Guide (PP9) is a mid-pack closer. If the scratches hold, the pace pressure lightens significantly, which could help the speed types. Captain Creed (PP7) is a mid-pack leader type.
Key Contenders
Tap in Formation (PP6) at 2-1 is the consensus top pick with the highest win prediction score (24%) and an 80% show prediction. This six-year-old gelding for trainer Anthony Farrior and jockey Arnaldo Bocachica is the fastest leader in the field, and the Bocachica/Farrior combination is the second most productive at the track. He has a superb 32% win rate from 31 starts with 10 wins, making him a legitimate class horse in a starter optional event. His recent form includes a second at Parx, a fourth at Parx, and a win at Parx, showing he has been competing at a higher level. First start at Charles Town is an important note, but the speed-favoring surface and his powerful connections mitigate the risk.
Tour Guide (PP9) at 2-1 on the morning line is the most accomplished horse in the field with a 44% win rate (seven wins from 16 starts) and a 75% show rate. Trained by Ronney Brown (19 wins, leading trainer) with jockey Denis Araujo (eight wins, +2.70 added wins), this horse won his last two starts at Charles Town at 6 1/2 and 7 furlongs. The concern is the closing style from post 9, which is the far outside at 6 1/2 furlongs with two turns. If scratches reduce the field, the outside post becomes less of an issue.
Secondary Choices
Dance for Green (PP2) at 12-1 offers significant value. This five-year-old gelding for trainer David Walters (one win, 10%) and jockey Moises Santaella (15 wins) has $520,390 in career earnings from 49 starts, more than any other horse in the race. He won his last two races at 6 1/2 furlongs at Charles Town before a poor eighth last out at 7 furlongs. The step back down in distance and the Santaella jockey booking are positives. At double-digit odds, he is a clear value play if his recent form bounce was a hiccup.
Captain Creed (PP7) at 12-1 has 12 wins from 43 starts (28%) with $230,492 in career earnings. However, he has been racing at a mile and longer recently and the cutback to 6 1/2 furlongs could help or hurt. Jockey Maximo Chilo (four wins, 10.53%) is average. Trainer Gregory Viands has one win from six starts.
Longshots
Grand Park View (PP1) at 12-1 draws the rail and profiles as a mid-pack leader with 14% win rate and 50% show rate. Jockey Reshawn Latchman has four wins. Trainer Brian Boyce is three for three on starts this year, though the sample is tiny. The inside draw could give him an advantage in a reduced field.
Prom Knight (PP4) at 20-1 has been racing at Laurel and struggling, with a seventh and two more poor results recently. Hard to use here.
Betting Strategy
If the scratches hold, this becomes a smaller field and the value shifts. Tap in Formation and Tour Guide will likely be bet down to very short prices. The play is to use Dance for Green (PP2) as a value underlayer. Key exactas of PP6 and PP9 over PP2 and PP1, or a trifecta using PP6 and PP9 on top with PP2, PP1, and PP7 in the lower slots.
Selections
Win: 6 Tap in Formation
Place: 9 Tour Guide
Show: 2 Dance for Green
Jockey Notes and Insights
Arnaldo Bocachica remains the dominant force at Charles Town with 19 wins from 78 starts (24.36%). He rides Golden Circles (R2), Creative Catch (R6), Zachamundo (R7), and Tap in Formation (R8) tonight. His -5.17 in added wins is somewhat misleading; it reflects that he rides many heavily-favored horses and even when he loses, his mounts are usually expected to win. When he is aboard the best horse in the race, he is extremely reliable.
Moises Santaella is the second-leading rider with 15 wins from 91 starts (16.48%). He rides Ed’s Prophecy (R1), Don’t Blink (R3), Jlodiamond (R4), Dadio (R5), Spicy Years (R6), and Dance for Green (R8). His busy schedule tonight means he is involved in virtually every race, giving him ample opportunity to pad his totals. He is particularly effective on horses trained by Ronney Brown.
J.D. Acosta is third in wins with 14 from 80 starts (17.50%) and leads all jockeys with +3.31 added wins, meaning he consistently outperforms the odds of his mounts. He rides Running Rio (R3) and Absolute Grit (R8, scratch watch). When Acosta is on a live horse, he is extremely dangerous.
Denis Vicente Araujo has eight wins from just 39 starts (20.51%) with the second-best added wins figure at +2.70. He rides Ride to Remember (R2), Don’t Get Cute (R5), and Tour Guide (R8). Like Acosta, Araujo wins more than the odds suggest, making him a profitable follow.
Sunday Diaz Jr. has 10 wins from 73 starts (13.70%) with a positive +1.71 added wins. He rides Blameitonmyroots (R1), Juba Baby (R2), Just a Wizard (R5), and Improbable Journey (R8, scratch watch). He is a steady hand who can occasionally fire at a price.
Christian Hiraldo has been struggling in 2026 with only two wins from 37 starts (5.41%) and -1.22 in added wins. He rides Symptomatic (R2), Arrivedercci (R3), Dixie Yodeler (R4), and Court Tudor (R7). His current form is a significant negative for his mounts.
Justin Lewis has 11 wins from 91 starts (12.09%). He rides Tidbit (R3), Miss Menetes (R4), Saichi’s Girl (R6), and Kaylee’s Spitfire (R7, scratch watch). He is particularly effective in the Lewis/Rose pairing with Miss Menetes.
Jeiron Barbosa has three wins from 20 starts (15%) with a 0.00 added wins figure, performing exactly as the odds predict. He rides Diakonissa (R4) and Aye Direct (R5). His 49% show rate on mounts is worth noting for place and show bets.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Ronney Brown is the leading trainer at the 2026 Charles Town meet with 19 wins from 81 starts (23.46%) and the best added wins figure at +3.99. He saddles Ed’s Prophecy (R1), Don’t Blink (R3), Jlodiamond (R4), and Tour Guide (R8). Brown fires at a rate significantly better than the odds suggest, meaning his horses routinely upset or confirm favoritism. When he runs a horse at a decent price, it warrants attention. His pairing with Santaella has been particularly productive.
Anthony Farrior is the second-leading trainer with 15 wins from 77 starts (19.48%). He saddles Running Rio (R3), Golden Circles (R2), Additional Factor (R6), Tap in Formation (R8), and Absolute Grit (R8, scratch watch). Notably, his -5.71 added wins figure is the worst at the meet, meaning his winners tend to be heavily-favored horses. When he wins, it is usually at short odds. His pairing with Bocachica is the most successful at the track.
Kevin Joy is the third-leading trainer with 13 wins from 69 starts (18.84%) and +2.44 added wins. He saddles Fair Trade (R3), Kluvyameanandnasty (R3), and Julita Bonita (R6). Joy has been outperforming the odds all year, making his entrants at longer prices very dangerous. He runs two in Race 3, which is a sign of confidence.
Jeff Runco is the fourth-leading trainer with eight wins from 38 starts (21.05%). He saddles T Rex Union (R5, scratch watch), Creative Catch (R6), Zachamundo (R7), and Annapolis Road (R7). Running two in Race 7 is significant, as the Runco/Bocachica combination is historically the most powerful at Charles Town. Two Runco horses in one race often means one is favored to win while the other serves as insurance.
Cynthia McKee has six wins from 31 starts (19.35%) and saddles Just a Wizard (R5) and Improbable Journey (R8, scratch watch). She has been winning at a solid clip.
Christopher Keller has three wins from just 10 starts (30%), the highest percentage among all trainers with significant starts. He saddles Juba Baby (R2) and Don’t Get Cute (R5). When Keller runs a horse, pay attention.
Joan Reynolds has three wins from just six starts (50%) with +2.18 added wins. She saddles Delightful Dixie (R4). An extremely hot trainer who has been dramatically outperforming.
Javier Contreras has five wins from 31 starts (16.13%) and saddles Roark (R1), Blameitonmyroots (R1), Spicy Years (R6), and Lolita (R6). Running two in both Race 1 and Race 6 suggests he is confident about his entrants across the card.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The following analysis focuses on identifying the strongest plays and value opportunities across the card:
The single best value play on the card is Don’t Get Cute (PP1) in Race 5. At morning line odds of 9-2, this horse draws the rail (the best post at 4 1/2 furlongs), has a front-running style (the best style at 4 1/2 furlongs), won his last start at this exact distance and track, and is trained by Christopher Keller (30% win rate) with jockey Denis Araujo (+2.70 added wins, the second-best overperformance figure among all riders). The morning line price does not fully reflect his advantages.
The most likely winner on the card is Golden Circles (PP5) in Race 2 at 1-2 on the morning line. She has the fastest early speed in the field, the Bocachica/Farrior combination, recent competitive form, and the extreme speed bias at 4 1/2 furlongs working in her favor. The price will likely be too short for straight wagering, but she is a reliable single for multi-race wagers.
For the Pick 5 (typically Races 4-8), consider the following structure: Race 4: use PP7, PP1, PP6 (three horses); Race 5: use PP1, PP5 (two horses); Race 6: use PP8, PP3, PP5, PP2 (four horses); Race 7: use PP4, PP2 (two horses); Race 8: use PP6, PP9, PP2 (three horses). This provides 144 combinations. If available at a $0.50 minimum, the total investment would be $72.
For the Daily Double (last two races), key Zachamundo (R7) and Annapolis Road (R7) over Tap in Formation (R8), Tour Guide (R8), and Dance for Green (R8). This gives six combinations for $12 at a $2 base.
The best exotic play of the night is the Race 7 exacta: Zachamundo (PP4) over Annapolis Road (PP2), with a reverse exacta to cover both Runco horses. This race features the most predictable top two finishers on the card, and the Runco/Bocachica dominance in WV-bred allowance company is well-established.
For value seekers, Dance for Green (PP2) at projected double-digit odds in Race 8 has the class, the earnings, and a win jockey aboard. Back-to-back wins two starts back at this exact distance at this track give him a legitimate shot. Use him in exacta and trifecta underlay spots behind the two favorites.
Races to approach with caution: Race 3 (Kluvyameanandnasty will likely be an underlaid favorite with a closing style that does not fit the distance/track bias), Race 4 (wide-open race with three potential favorites and no clear standout), and Race 6 (wide-open maiden with limited form on several runners). These races are best used as spread races in multi-race sequences rather than played heavily in win pools.
The overall card favors the Brown, Farrior, Runco, and Joy barns, who combine for the vast majority of wins at the meet. Targeting horses from these trainers at value prices while using their short-priced runners as singles in exotic wagers is the optimal approach for tonight’s card.
