BOUNCE RISK

Fires when the last-race speed figure equals the career best AND is at least 5 points above the career average. A single race run dramatically above a horse's established level requires exceptional physical output that the horse's training base may not sustainably support. Racing research consistently shows that horses coming off peak-effort career bests regress toward their mean on the next start. The bounce effect is most pronounced when the peak figure is far above the horse's norm, not just a marginal improvement.