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The Pick Pony Handicapper’s Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. The report is prepared by one of our Pick Pony analysts, so selections may differ from Pick Pony’s Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all analysts.
Current track conditions show dirt fast, turf firm, and synthetic fast surfaces available for today’s 10-race program. Weather forecast calls for mostly cloudy, windy and humid conditions with scattered showers and highs reaching 87 degrees. The turf rail is positioned at 45 feet for today’s grass races.
Track Conditions and Weather Impact
The fast dirt surface should favor speed and early pace pressure in dirt races. With scattered showers possible and humid conditions, the synthetic surface remains fast and should provide consistent footing. Turf races may be affected by moisture, though the firm rating indicates good racing conditions with the rail at 45 feet providing a fair racing surface.
Race-by-Race Analysis
Race 1: Maiden Special Weight – 7.5F Turf (12:50 PM)
Key Contenders: Orbit emerges as the morning line favorite with solid recent form including a fourth-place finish in a Kentucky Downs turf mile. The Mark Casse trainee shows 21% win probability with strong place and show percentages. Thunder Zeus offers value at 2-1 morning line odds despite lower win probability.
Secondary Choices: Cowboy represents another Casse runner making his debut. Raasil and Antonino both trained by Antonio Sano provide potential upset possibilities.
Longshots: Mustbethemunning at longer odds could provide exotic value if the pace sets up favorably.
Pace Analysis: Limited pace pressure expected with most runners showing stalking tendencies. Orbit likely to press early pace.
Key Angles: Both Thunder Zeus and Orbit are making their first starts since gelding operations, which historically shows positive results.
Race 2: Claiming – 1 1/16M Synthetic (1:21 PM)
Key Contenders: Try to Make Cents figures prominently with Victor Barboza Jr. training and Emisael Jaramillo riding. The three-year-old gelding shows form that fits this claiming level.
Secondary Choices: Munger provides veteran presence for the Rachel Lynn Lopez Olmeda barn. Cryptonym offers late-running style that could benefit from early pace pressure.
Longshots: Legal Maneuver carries significant weight reduction to 113 pounds with Luis Fuenmayor aboard, providing potential value.
Pace Analysis: Moderate pace expected with several early speed types ensuring honest fractions.
Race 3: Claiming – 5F Synthetic (2:01 PM)
Key Contenders: Hottakejake stands out in this sprint with Cipriano Gil riding for Tareq Moubarak. The four-year-old gelding’s recent form suggests readiness for this claiming level.
Secondary Choices: Adversary trained by Edward Plesa Jr. brings tactical speed. Aegon Targaryen shows improvement potential for Gerald Bennett.
Longshots: McMullen receives significant weight allowance that could prove decisive in a competitive sprint.
Pace Analysis: Rapid early fractions anticipated in this five-furlong sprint with multiple speed horses engaged.
Race 4: Maiden Special Weight – 6F Dirt (2:35 PM)
Key Contenders: Jestina represents Saffie Joseph Jr. with Reylu Gutierrez riding, showing morning line favoritism. The two-year-old filly has shown promising training.
Secondary Choices: Kokomo Kitty brings Edgard Zayas in the saddle for Jose Francisco D’Angelo. Sweet Ruby trained by Diane Morici offers consistent connections.
Longshots: Lady Rockula could provide surprise value with Miguel Angel Vasquez aboard for Carlos David.
Pace Analysis: Solid early pace expected among state-bred fillies with several showing gate speed.
Race 5: Allowance Optional Claiming – 5F Turf (3:05 PM)
Race Conditions: 5 furlongs on turf, purse $58,000, rail at 45 feet. Allowance optional claiming for 3-year-olds and up that haven’t won $20,000 twice or three races, claiming price $62,500.
Key Contenders
Xy Speed (Post 2) – 3/2 Morning Line Favorite
The veteran 9-year-old gelding brings extensive experience with $560,580 in career earnings from 27 starts, posting an impressive 8-13-15 record for a 30% win rate and 56% in-the-money percentage. Michael Lerman trains with Emisael Jaramillo aboard, a strong turf combination. Recent form shows an eighth-place finish at Saratoga in August followed by a win and sixth-place effort at Gulfstream in turf sprints.
Strengths: Proven turf sprint specialist with “Fast Leads” running style that suits the distance. The veteran has been scratched multiple times recently due to weather concerns, suggesting connections are selective about conditions. His 30% win rate demonstrates consistent ability at this level.
Concerns: Age factor at 9 years old and recent scratches may indicate soundness issues. The article specifically mentions he “needs rain to stay away,” suggesting vulnerability in certain track conditions.
El Apagon (CHI) – 5/2 Second Choice
The 4-year-old Chilean import shows impressive recent form with $113,221 in earnings from just 7 starts, recording a 3-3-4 record for 43% wins and 57% in-the-money. Victor Barboza Jr. trains with Jose Morelos riding, continuing their successful partnership that produced a front-running victory earlier this year.
Strengths: Excellent recent statistics with nearly 50% win rate. His “Fast Closer” running style provides tactical advantage if early pace develops. Won his last allowance start at Gulfstream, demonstrating current form and track familiarity.
Concerns: Limited North American experience with only 7 career starts. Was scratched from a stakes race in September along with Xy Speed.
Secondary Contenders
Okiro (Post 4) – 7/2 Third Choice
The 4-year-old colt represents Jose Garoffalo with Leonel Reyes riding. Recent form and odds suggest legitimate contention in this field.
Cruzin Man (Post 3) – 6/1
The 5-year-old gelding brings experience with $403,380 in career earnings from 24 starts, posting 5-9-15 record. Rohan Crichton trains with Reylu Gutierrez aboard. His “Mid Pack Leader” style could benefit from expected pace scenario.
Longshot Considerations
Makeit to Cheyenne (Post 1) – 12/1
The 3-year-old gelding by Liam’s Map receives significant weight relief at 118 pounds with non-winner allowance. Joseph Orseno trains with Edgard Zayas riding, representing solid connections despite longer odds.
Lord Berrier (Post 5) – 10/1
The 7-year-old gelding provides veteran presence under Lennox Preudhomme’s training with Rajiv Maragh aboard. Longshot potential if pace scenario develops favorably.
Pace Analysis
The race sets up as a tactical sprint with both Xy Speed and El Apagon showing early speed tendencies. Xy Speed’s “Fast Leads” style suggests he’ll press early, while El Apagon’s “Fast Closer” rating indicates he can adapt tactically. This dynamic creates opportunities for mid-pack runners like Cruzin Man to capitalize if the front-runners engage early.
The firm turf conditions with rail at 45 feet should provide fair racing surface, though the 5-furlong distance demands early positioning.
Key Angles
Class Relief: Several horses are dropping from higher-level competition, particularly relevant given the claiming option at $62,500.
Weight Advantages: Makeit to Cheyenne’s 118-pound impost represents significant relief compared to older horses carrying 121-123 pounds.
Track Familiarity: Both Xy Speed and El Apagon have recent Gulfstream experience, providing course knowledge advantage.
Trainer Patterns: Victor Barboza Jr. shows 43% win rate with El Apagon, while Michael Lerman’s 23% strike rate with Xy Speed reflects solid conditioning.
Wagering Strategies
Win Bet: El Apagon offers value at 5/2 given his excellent recent form and tactical advantage.
Place/Show: Xy Speed provides safety despite age concerns, while Okiro at 7/2 offers reasonable place coverage.
Exacta: Box El Apagon and Xy Speed with Okiro for coverage. Alternative wheel El Apagon over Xy Speed, Okiro, and Cruzin Man.
Trifecta: Key El Apagon on top with Xy Speed, Okiro, and Cruzin Man filling minor positions.
Race 6: Claiming – 5F Synthetic (3:35 PM)
Key Contenders: Breezey Bella emerges as the logical choice with Marcos Meneses aboard for Carlos David. The four-year-old mare’s recent form fits this claiming level.
Secondary Choices: Beautiful Bolt brings Kelly Breen training with Edgard Zayas riding. Candy Buzz offers speed for Jeff Engler.
Longshots: Garuda could provide upset potential at generous odds under Edwin Gonzalez.
Pace Analysis: Competitive early pace among fillies and mares in this claiming sprint.
Race 7: Maiden Special Weight – 1M Turf (4:05 PM)
Key Contenders: Starship Bella trained by Steven Dwoskin with Leonel Reyes riding shows promise in this maiden turf mile. The three-year-old filly’s breeding suggests turf aptitude.
Secondary Choices: Sapphire Girl represents Saffie Joseph Jr. with Edgard Zayas aboard. Money Trail offers late-running style for John Vinson.
Longshots: Por Voce could benefit from the firm turf surface with Emisael Jaramillo’s aggressive riding style.
Pace Analysis: Modest early pace expected allowing closers to have impact in the stretch drive.
Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming – 6.5F Dirt (4:35 PM)
Race Conditions: 6.5 furlongs on dirt, purse $57,000, claiming price $25,000. For 3-year-olds and up that haven’t won $20,000 once other than maiden, claiming, starter or restricted, or haven’t won two races. Weight allowances for non-winners since July 26.
Key Contenders
Secret Empire (Post 5) – 9/5 Morning Line Favorite
The 4-year-old gelding by Chitu represents Gerald Bennett’s barn with Jose Ferrer riding. Bennett shows solid recent form with 2 wins from 13 runners in the last 21 days, demonstrating an active and successful stable. The combination rates as the morning line choice and has been improving according to form analysis.
Strengths: Gerald Bennett training with strong recent statistics indicates proper conditioning. The horse carries 123 pounds as a 4-year-old, suggesting class and maturity. Form indicates improvement trajectory heading into this spot.
Concerns: Limited recent race data available, though the morning line favoritism suggests strong workouts or hidden form advantages.
Swirvin (Post 7) – 6/1
The 5-year-old horse brings extensive experience with Edwin Gonzalez riding for Eniel Cordero. International form analysis specifically highlights Swirvin as having “strong form at this level and distance, making him the one to beat”. Recent performance shows a 7th place finish at Gulfstream on August 23rd in a 5-furlong turf race.
Strengths: Form analysis indicates proven ability at this specific distance and class level. Tactical versatility with ability to rate off early pace. Recent race experience at the track provides familiarity.
Concerns: Last race was on turf surface, requiring surface switch back to dirt. Longer odds despite strong form analysis suggest market skepticism.
Secondary Contenders
Neshume (Post 2) – 3/1 Second Choice
The 3-year-old colt trained by Laura Cazares carries 118 pounds with weight allowance, ridden by Edgard Zayas. Zayas brings excellent recent form and high win percentages to this partnership.
Strengths: Significant weight advantage at 118 pounds versus older horses. Edgard Zayas riding provides strong jockey advantage with proven Gulfstream success. Three-year-old competing against older horses often brings improvement potential.
Concerns: Limited experience compared to older horses in the field. Cazares shows 0 wins from recent runners in trainer statistics.
Joey Muscles (Post 1) – 7/2 Third Choice
The 3-year-old Florida-bred colt by Khozan represents Jena Antonucci’s barn with Jose Morelos aboard. Recent form shows a 5/1 finish in allowance optional claiming company with form figures of 313777. Antonucci shows 1 win from 14 recent runners.
Strengths: Weight allowance to 118 pounds provides significant advantage. Florida-bred status may indicate home track familiarity. Jose Morelos brings tactical riding ability and track knowledge.
Concerns: Form figures suggest inconsistency with recent 7th place finishes. Trainer statistics show moderate recent success rate.
Longshot Considerations
Beach Colt (CHI) (Post 4) – 5/1
The 6-year-old Chilean import trained by Amador Sanchez with Emisael Jaramillo riding brings international breeding and experience. Sanchez shows strong recent form with 4 wins from 18 runners in the last 21 days. Recent form includes strong performances, and the horse has shown ability at Gulfstream Park.
Strengths: Trainer showing excellent recent statistics with 22% win rate. Jaramillo provides aggressive riding style suited to dirt sprints. Chilean breeding often translates well to American dirt racing.
Concerns: Advanced age at 6 years old. International horses sometimes need time to adapt to American racing conditions.
Mr. Peeks (Post 3) – 10/1
The 5-year-old gelding trained by Beau Chapman with Miguel Angel Vasquez riding offers longshot value. Chapman shows 1 win from 2 recent runners, indicating selective placement strategy.
Strengths: Chapman’s high percentage with limited runners suggests careful conditioning. Vasquez brings veteran riding experience and track knowledge.
Concerns: Limited recent activity and longest odds suggest form concerns.
Pace Analysis
The 6.5-furlong distance on dirt should produce honest early fractions with multiple horses showing early speed tendencies. Secret Empire and Neshume likely to contest early pace, while Swirvin’s tactical ability allows for rating just off the leaders. Beach Colt’s aggressive jockey style suggests pressing tactics, creating potential pace pressure that could benefit late runners like Joey Muscles.
The fast dirt surface should favor horses with proven dirt form and tactical speed, giving advantages to Secret Empire and Swirvin who show best credentials at this surface and distance combination.
Key Angles
Trainer Form: Gerald Bennett (2-13) and Amador Sanchez (4-18) show the strongest recent statistics, providing confidence in their entries.
Weight Advantages: Three-year-olds Joey Muscles and Neshume both receive significant weight relief at 118 pounds compared to older horses.
Distance Specialization: Swirvin specifically noted for strong form at this exact distance, providing crucial advantage.
Surface Switch: Several horses returning to dirt after turf experience, favoring those with proven dirt credentials.
Wagering Strategies
Win Bet: Swirvin offers exceptional value at 6/1 given the form analysis specifically highlighting his suitability for this race conditions.
Place/Show: Secret Empire provides safety as the morning line favorite with strong connections, while Beach Colt offers solid place coverage with improving trainer statistics.
Exacta: Key Swirvin on top over Secret Empire, Beach Colt, and Neshume. Alternative wheel Secret Empire over Swirvin and Beach Colt.
Trifecta: Use Swirvin and Secret Empire in top two positions with Beach Colt, Neshume, and Joey Muscles filling third spot.
Daily Double: Connect Race 8 winner with Race 9 selections for attractive payoff potential.
Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming – 5F Turf (5:05 PM)
Race Conditions: 5 furlongs on turf, purse $57,000, claiming price $25,000. For fillies and mares 3-years-old and up that haven’t won $20,000 once or haven’t won two races. Rail at 45 feet, weight allowances available.
Key Contenders
Royally Blue (Post 7) – 5/2 Morning Line Favorite
The 6-year-old mare by Sky Mesa brings impressive credentials with $260,845 in career earnings from a 21-start record of 5-13-16, showing remarkable consistency with 76% in-the-money percentage. Steve Klesaris trains with Rajiv Maragh riding, representing a strong veteran combination. Recent form figures of 315112 indicate current competitive form.
Strengths: Exceptional consistency with 24% win rate and 76% ITM percentage demonstrates reliability in this class. Maragh’s turf expertise combines well with the mare’s proven surface ability. The 123-pound weight assignment reflects her class advantage over younger rivals.
Concerns: Advanced age at 6 years old may indicate decline phase. Recent form shows she hasn’t won since earlier efforts, though place consistency remains strong.
Call Me Spicy (Post 2) – 7/2 Second Choice
The 5-year-old mare represents the powerful Joseph Orseno stable with meet-leading jockey Edgard Zayas aboard. Orseno shows strong recent statistics in allowance optional claiming events, particularly with turf sprinters. The trainer-jockey combination has proven chemistry at Gulfstream Park.
Strengths: Orseno’s expertise with fillies and mares in allowance company provides significant trainer advantage. Zayas brings exceptional turf riding ability and current hot streak. The 121-pound weight reflects competitive class level.
Concerns: Limited specific recent form data available, though connections suggest strong preparation for this spot.
Secondary Contenders
Dare to Breeze (Post 9) – 9/2 Third Choice
The 3-year-old filly by Into Mischief represents Mark Casse with Miguel Angel Vasquez riding. Casse’s proven ability to develop young turf horses provides confidence, while the weight advantage at 118 pounds offers tactical benefit. Vasquez brings extensive Gulfstream experience and strong turf credentials.
Strengths: Significant weight advantage carrying 118 pounds versus older mares. Casse’s reputation for turf development creates upside potential. Into Mischief breeding suggests natural turf ability.
Concerns: Limited experience compared to seasoned rivals. Must prove ability against this competitive field of older horses.
Happy Ride (Post 4) – 5/1
The 6-year-old mare trained by Laura Cazares with Emisael Jaramillo riding brings veteran presence and tactical speed. Recent analysis suggests this mare has shown ability in similar company and could benefit from the five-furlong turf distance.
Strengths: Jaramillo’s aggressive riding style suits turf sprints effectively. Veteran experience provides race savvy in competitive field.
Concerns: Cazares shows moderate recent trainer statistics. Advanced age requires peak condition to compete with this field.
Longshot Considerations
She’s a Gamer (Post 3) – 8/1
The 3-year-old filly by Ghostzapper represents Mark Casse’s barn with Edwin Gonzalez riding. Peter Deutsch ownership and Summer Wind Equine breeding suggest quality connections. Casse’s success with young turf horses creates upset potential.
Strengths: Proven trainer with young turf horses. Weight advantage at 120 pounds provides competitive edge. Ghostzapper breeding often translates to turf success.
Concerns: Longer odds suggest form concerns or inexperience at this level.
Travel Happy (Post 1) – 15/1
The 4-year-old filly trained by Gary Jackson with Jose Morelos riding has shown competitive ability in state-bred allowance company, including a strong effort against Be Thankful in July where she finished just three-quarters of a length behind.
Strengths: Proven ability in allowance company with recent competitive efforts. Jackson provides solid conditioning for this class level.
Concerns: Longest odds suggest market skepticism despite competitive recent form.
Pace Analysis
The five-furlong turf sprint should produce tactical early fractions with multiple horses showing speed tendencies. Call Me Spicy and Royally Blue likely to contest early positioning, while Dare to Breeze’s youthful speed could create pressure. Happy Ride’s tactical ability allows for rating just off leaders, potentially benefiting from pace setup.
The firm turf conditions with rail at 45 feet should provide fair racing surface, though early positioning proves crucial in turf sprints of this distance.
Key Angles
Trainer Advantages: Both Orseno and Casse show proven success with fillies and mares in turf allowance company, providing confidence in their respective entries.
Jockey Factor: Zayas leads the meet in multiple categories, while Maragh brings specialized turf expertise. The jockey advantage heavily favors these connections.
Weight Relief: Three-year-olds Dare to Breeze (118) and She’s a Gamer (120) receive significant advantages compared to older mares carrying 121-123 pounds.
Surface Specialization: Turf form proves crucial, favoring horses with proven grass credentials and breeding suited to the surface.
Wagering Strategies
Win Bet: Call Me Spicy offers excellent value at 7/2 given the powerful Orseno-Zayas combination and proven success in this exact race type.
Place/Show: Royally Blue provides safety with exceptional consistency statistics, while Dare to Breeze offers coverage with weight advantage and improving trainer.
Exacta: Key Call Me Spicy on top over Royally Blue, Dare to Breeze, and Happy Ride. Alternative wheel Royally Blue over Call Me Spicy and Dare to Breeze.
Trifecta: Use Call Me Spicy and Royally Blue in top two positions with Dare to Breeze, Happy Ride, and She’s a Gamer filling third spot.
Late Pick 3: Connect this race with selections from races 10 and any carryover sequences for attractive payoff potential.
Race 10: Maiden Claiming – 5F Synthetic (5:37 PM)
Key Contenders: Snitch Dorada emerges as the logical choice with Leonel Reyes riding for Jose Francisco D’Angelo. The three-year-old filly shows promise in this claiming maiden.
Secondary Choices: Once Upon a Time represents Saffie Joseph Jr. with Edgard Zayas aboard. Smart Lisa offers debut potential for Steven Dwoskin.
Longshots: Gone a Lil West making first start since gelding could provide surprise value.
Pace Analysis: Moderate pace expected in the finale with several horses showing gate speed.
Selections: Win: Snitch Dorada, Place: Once Upon a Time, Show: Smart Lisa
Jockey Notes and Insights
Edgard Zayas continues his strong Gulfstream Park form with multiple mounts throughout the card. The jockey’s 20.8% win rate demonstrates consistent performance. Emisael Jaramillo brings aggressive riding style that suits turf racing particularly well. Leonel Reyes shows effectiveness in claiming races and provides value on longer-priced horses.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Mark Casse operates multiple runners including Orbit and Cowboy in the opener, demonstrating confidence in his stable’s readiness. Saffie Joseph Jr. sends out multiple contenders including Jestina and Sapphire Girl, showing depth in his barn. Carlos David and Diane Morici provide consistent training that often produces results at claiming levels.
Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The Pick 4 covering races 1-4 offers potential value using Orbit, Try to Make Cents, Hottakejake, and Jestina as singles with secondary choices for coverage. Daily Double opportunities exist connecting races 5-6 with Xy Speed and Breezey Bella providing solid foundation.
Exacta wheels using Orbit over Thunder Zeus and Raasil in Race 1 provide reasonable coverage. Trifecta boxing Happy Ride, She’s a Gamer, and Call Me Spicy in Race 9 offers attractive payoff potential. The late Pick 3 covering races 8-10 using Secret Empire, Happy Ride, and Snitch Dorada as anchors with secondary choices for expansion provides closing action value.
