Parx Racing – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News, Analysis, Expert Picks, and AI Predictions for November 26, 2025

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The Pick Pony Handicapper’s Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts and are generally more accurate.

Parx Racing presents an exciting 10-race card featuring five stakes races highlighted by the Pennsylvania Nursery Stakes, Shamrock Rose Stakes, Cornucopia Stakes, Turkey Trot Stakes, and Let’s Give Thanks Stakes. The all-stakes sequence in the late pick 5 begins with Race 6 at approximately 2:20 PM ET, with a significant carryover requiring mandatory payout.

Weather and Track Conditions

Wednesday’s forecast calls for overnight rain in the greater Philadelphia area with temperatures ranging from lows around 45°F to highs near 57°F. Wind conditions are expected to be moderate from the west at approximately 13 mph with humidity around 44 percent. The main dirt track is listed as Fast but handicappers should remain cognizant of potential moisture impact from overnight precipitation. Morning workouts proceeded normally, and the track should maintain consistent conditions throughout the afternoon program with no precipitation expected during racing hours. These moderate temperatures and stable conditions favor consistent racing surfaces through the 4:08 PM finale.​

The possibility of residual moisture from overnight rain could benefit horses with proven wet track form, particularly in the stakes races where several entrants show strong records on off tracks.​

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

Parx Racing demonstrates a pronounced speed-favoring bias, particularly in sprint races at six and six-and-a-half furlongs. Front-running and stalking horses that establish early position perform exceptionally well, with wire-to-wire winners commonplace on the main track. Statistical analysis reveals inside posts win approximately 17 percent of sprint races, while outside posts drop to just 8-9 percent.​

In route races at one mile and beyond, the bias moderates somewhat as the longer run to the first turn allows outside horses more time to establish position. Tactical speed remains advantageous, but closers have better chances in route events than sprints. Post position four has historically been among the most successful draws at Parx across all distances.​

The track’s long stretch run gives stalking horses and tactical riders opportunities to time their moves effectively. Horses drawn inside can struggle when track conditions deteriorate, though today’s anticipated Fast track should not present such issues.​

1st Race – Claiming $7,500

Post Time: 12:05 PM

Seven furlongs for fillies and mares three years old and upward which have never won three races. Purse $21,000.

Pace Analysis

This 12-horse maiden claiming field features several speed types that will contest the early lead. Wink of an Eye from the rail shows the fastest leading style and figures to press or establish the early lead. Harlan’s Bond, making her first start for Jamie Ness after a three-month layoff, showed tactical speed in her last start and should be forwardly placed. The pace pressure could set up closers if the front-runners engage through aggressive fractions.​

Key Contenders

Harlan’s Bond returns to action for the powerful Jamie Ness stable after finishing third in her most recent Parx start over this seven-furlong distance. The three-year-old filly by Khozan moves to an elite outfit that wins at 28 percent at Parx, and Ness has been dominant throughout 2025 with over 300 wins nationally. Dexter Haddock takes the mount, and the jockey-trainer combination provides confidence despite the layoff. She possesses tactical speed and the ability to stalk or press, which suits the Parx racing surface.​

Wink of an Eye draws the rail and represents the Juan Carlos Guerrero stable with hot rider Mychel Sanchez aboard. This three-year-old finished third in her last start at this track, beaten 5.5 lengths, but had won the start prior. The rail post provides a tactical advantage for her fastest leading style, and she can secure position without burning excessive energy. Sanchez is riding at a 24 percent clip at Parx with strong earnings.​

Eloper brings consistent form from the Jack Abrams barn, which has been hitting at 24 percent at Parx this year. Francisco Martinez takes the mount, and this four-year-old filly has tactical speed to position herself favorably in the running.​

Secondary Choices

Starship Legend offers value at projected odds for trainer Julio Rodriguez. This five-year-old mare shows a fast closing running style that could benefit from a contested pace scenario. Bryan Torres’ apprentice allowance provides a weight advantage.​

Brooklyn Heights enters for veteran trainer Uriah St. Lewis after recent poor efforts. At projected longshot odds, she represents a saver in horizontal wagers if the pace melts down and favors deep closers.​

Betting Strategy

The Jamie Ness factor with Harlan’s Bond cannot be ignored given the barn’s exceptional form. However, Wink of an Eye’s rail post and proven speed make her equally dangerous. Structure exacta and trifecta wagers around these two with Eloper as the third key. In vertical sequences, use Harlan’s Bond and Wink of an Eye on top with wider coverage underneath given the competitive maiden claiming nature.

Selections

Win: Harlan’s Bond

Place: Wink of an Eye

Show: Eloper

2nd Race – Claiming $7,500

Post Time: 12:32 PM

Seven furlongs for three year olds and upward which have never won two races. Purse $21,000.

Pace Analysis

This nine-horse field lacks significant early speed, suggesting moderate early fractions. Trulli Warrior from the rail shows the most tactical speed based on pace figures and should establish forward position. Deportivo and Booted Up also possess some early speed but prefer to rate off the pace. The moderate tempo could allow stalkers like Redoubtableripken to position favorably and close effectively into the stretch.​

Key Contenders

Trulli Warrior draws the advantageous rail post for the Ernesto Padilla-Preciado stable. This four-year-old gelding has been competing against tougher and drops into a more suitable spot. Jorge Vargas Jr. takes the mount, and the rail allows this gelding to secure position economically. The Padilla-Preciado barn has been productive at Parx, and this class relief represents a significant edge.​

Redoubtableripken returns for trainer Michael Pino, who has been on an extraordinary run at Parx with a 37 percent win rate in 2025. This three-year-old finished third in his last start and shows improvement in recent form. Ajhari Williams rides, and the Pino hot streak makes any runner from his barn dangerous at these claiming levels. The fast deep running style allows him to rally from off moderate pace.​

Booted Up represents trainer Irving Rodriguez and shows tactical speed with the ability to press or stalk. This three-year-old won two starts back and has trained forwardly for this engagement.​

Secondary Choices

God Is Life enters for Julio Rodriguez with Gonzalez Jr. aboard. This three-year-old shows moderate pace figures and fits at this level if able to secure good position.​

Big Dosser offers longshot value if the pace sets up for closers. Trainer Joann Bertone sends this gelding out at attractive odds.​

Betting Strategy

The Michael Pino factor makes Redoubtableripken the value play, particularly if he goes off at reasonable odds given the trainer’s exceptional form. Trulli Warrior provides rail speed, so structure exactas with these two on top. Box trifectas including Booted Up as the third key. Use Trulli Warrior and Redoubtableripken in vertical wagers with some coverage of Booted Up given his tactical speed.

Selections

Win: Redoubtableripken

Place: Trulli Warrior

Show: Booted Up

3rd Race – Claiming $5,000

Post Time: 12:59 PM

One mile for fillies and mares three years old and upward which have not won two races since May 26. Purse $18,000.

Pace Analysis

This seven-horse route features several speed types that will contest the early lead. Roman Goddess shows the fastest leading profile and figures to gun for the front from post seven. Waitwaitdonttellme also possesses early speed and should press from post four. Erin’s Enthusiasm brings tactical speed as well, suggesting honest fractions through moderate opening splits. The pace scenario should set up favorably for stalkers and closers like Megan’s Noel and Miss Chamita if the leaders engage too aggressively.​

Key Contenders

Roman Goddess returns for trainer John Kirby after a dominant wire-to-wire victory in her last start at this track over this one-mile distance. This five-year-old mare by Fort Larned controlled the pace and drew away to win by 3.25 lengths. Julio Hernandez takes the mount, and his 22 percent win rate at Parx provides confidence. The fast leading running style suits the speed-favoring Parx surface, and the one-mile distance allows her to use tactical speed without burning out.​

Waitwaitdonttellme won her last start at this track over this distance for trainer Josue Arce. This five-year-old mare shows fastest leading style and draws post four, which has historically been productive at Parx. Melvis Gonzalez rides, and the combination has been effective. She possesses tactical speed to establish position and control her own destiny.​

Megan’s Noel brings closing kick from the rail for Ernesto Padilla-Preciado. This six-year-old mare finished second in her last start at this track and shows consistent form with eight wins from 39 starts. Luis Rivera takes the mount, and the fast closing style provides tactical options if the pace becomes contested.​

Secondary Choices

Miss Chamita enters from post five for trainer Elliott Soto-Martinez. This six-year-old mare possesses experience with 62 career starts and shows fast deep running style that could benefit from pace pressure. Luis Ocasio rides.​

Erin’s Enthusiasm returns from a lengthy layoff for Philip Aristone. This eight-year-old mare last raced 135 days ago but shows fast leading ability and strong past form at Parx.​

Betting Strategy

Roman Goddess appears the horse to beat given her dominant last victory and tactical speed advantage. However, Waitwaitdonttellme provides value as the proven closer who handles this distance. Structure exactas with these two on top, and include Megan’s Noel in trifectas given her consistent closing kick. Use Roman Goddess on top in vertical sequences with coverage of Waitwaitdonttellme and Megan’s Noel underneath.

Selections

Win: Roman Goddess

Place: Waitwaitdonttellme

Show: Megan’s Noel

4th Race – Claiming $25,000

Post Time: 1:26 PM

Six furlongs for three year olds and upward which have not won a race since August 26. Purse $32,000.

Pace Analysis

This eight-horse sprint features significant early speed that will produce contested fractions. Midlaner shows the fastest deep running profile and should be forwardly placed from post two. Yuletide Gallop brings fastest stalking ability and figures prominently in the early pace scenario. Palm Island and Downtownchalybrown also possess tactical speed, suggesting aggressive opening splits. The pace pressure could set up value for closers like Try Harder and Neigh Dude if the leaders engage through swift fractions.​

Key Contenders

Midlaner represents the red-hot Michael Pino stable with ace pilot Mychel Sanchez aboard. This seven-year-old gelding finished second in his last two starts at Parx over this six-furlong distance. The Pino-Sanchez combination wins at 40 percent together, and Pino’s 37 percent win rate at Parx in 2025 makes any runner from his barn extremely dangerous. The fastest deep running style allows tactical flexibility to press or stalk, and post two provides excellent position.​

Yuletide Gallop enters for trainer Louis Linder Jr. with Dexter Haddock aboard. This four-year-old ridgling finished second in his last start at this track over this distance. The fastest stalking style suits the Parx surface, and Haddock has been productive with 42 wins at Parx through mid-year. This gelding shows strong recent form and the tactical speed to avoid trouble.​

Palm Island brings consistency for Kate DeMasi with Silvestre Gonzalez riding. This six-year-old gelding finished third in his last start and shows the ability to stalk and pounce. The fast stalking running style provides tactical options, and this gelding has proven form at Parx.​

Secondary Choices

Neigh Dude won his last start at Parx for trainer Josue Arce. This six-year-old gelding shows a slowest closing running style that could benefit immensely from pace pressure. Melvis Gonzalez takes the mount, and this consistent gelding offers value at projected odds.​

Downtownchalybrown provides experience with 34 starts and nine wins at this track. Yedsit Hazlewood rides for Scott Lake, and the fast closing style offers upset potential if the pace melts down.​

Betting Strategy

The Michael Pino factor makes Midlaner the logical choice despite potential short odds. The trainer’s exceptional form combined with Sanchez aboard creates a formidable combination. However, Yuletide Gallop provides value as an alternative on top given his stalking style and Haddock connection. Structure exactas with Midlaner and Yuletide Gallop, including Palm Island and Neigh Dude in trifectas. In vertical sequences, use Midlaner and Yuletide Gallop with broader coverage underneath given the competitive nature.

Selections

Win: Midlaner

Place: Yuletide Gallop

Show: Palm Island

5th Race – Starter Optional Claiming

Post Time: 1:53 PM

Six and one-half furlongs for three year olds and upward which have started for $16,000 or less. Purse $26,000.

Pace Analysis

This nine-horse field features Cojelo Pa Ti as the likely pacesetter from post three. The three-year-old colt wired the field by three lengths in his last start at Parx over six furlongs. Friday Surprise and Dads Good Runner also possess tactical speed, suggesting honest fractions through the opening splits. The pace scenario appears moderate, allowing stalkers to position favorably while creating opportunities for closers if the leaders engage aggressively.​

Key Contenders

Cojelo Pa Ti returns for trainer Michael Pino after a dominant front-running victory in his last start. This three-year-old colt by Redesdale controlled every call and drew clear to win by three lengths. The Pino barn’s 37 percent win rate makes this runner extremely dangerous, and Mychel Sanchez provides elite piloting skills. The fastest leading running style suits the speed-favoring Parx surface, and post three allows tactical flexibility.​

Dads Good Runner brings experience and class for trainer Wayne Potts. This six-year-old gelding finished fifth in his last start but shows better form in previous efforts. Francisco Martinez takes the mount, and the fast deep running style provides tactical options. This gelding has won races at Parx and possesses the class to compete at this level.​

Chris’s Revenge enters for Ernesto Padilla-Preciado with Abner Adorno aboard. This three-year-old gelding shows tactical speed and represents a barn that has been productive at Parx. The combination offers value at projected odds.​

Secondary Choices

Kaladin returns for trainer Bruce Kravets after recent efforts. This three-year-old gelding shows ability but faces tough competition in this field. Yabriel Ramos rides.​

A Votre Sante rounds out the field for trainer Eli Betancourt. Dexter Haddock takes the mount on this three-year-old gelding who shows tactical ability.​

Betting Strategy

Cojelo Pa Ti appears the standout given his dominant last victory and the powerful Pino-Sanchez combination. The speed-favoring track bias enhances his chances significantly. Use as a single in vertical sequences and key over others in exactas. Include Dads Good Runner and Chris’s Revenge as value plays underneath in trifectas and superfectas. The Michael Pino factor makes Cojelo Pa Ti the horse to beat.

Selections

Win: Cojelo Pa Ti

Place: Dads Good Runner

Show: Chris’s Revenge

6th Race – Pennsylvania Nursery Stakes

Post Time: 2:20 PM

Seven furlongs for registered Pennsylvania-bred two year olds. Purse $100,000 Guaranteed.

Pace Analysis

This eight-horse stakes field features several speed types that will contest the early lead. Mister Me shows the fastest leading profile and should press or establish the lead. Smoked Bourbon also possesses early speed and figures prominently in the pace scenario. Red Zone Runner brings tactical speed as well, suggesting honest fractions. The seven-furlong distance allows stalkers like Flyin Hawaiian and Mailata to position effectively and time their moves through the stretch.​

Key Contenders

Red Zone Runner enters off a powerful victory for trainer Erin McClellan. This two-year-old colt by Practical Joke won his last start impressively and shows the fastest leading running style. Jomar Torres takes the mount, and the tactical speed allows this colt to establish position and control the pace. He draws post three, which has been productive at Parx.​

Flyin Hawaiian represents powerful trainer Butch Reid after finishing seventh in the Grade 1 Hopeful at Saratoga. This two-year-old gelding by Maximus Mischief smashed a maiden field in his only local appearance before tackling graded stakes company. Angel Rodriguez takes the mount, and the mid-pack leading style provides tactical flexibility. Reid has multiple runners in this race, demonstrating his confidence in the spot.​

Mailata enters for Butch Reid with Mychel Sanchez aboard. This two-year-old colt wired maidens around two turns in his last start, showing tactical ability to press or rate. The Reid-Sanchez combination wins at 33 percent together at Parx. Drawing post seven with Sanchez aboard provides confidence given the jockey’s 24 percent win rate at the track.​

Secondary Choices

Mister Me brings tactical speed for trainer Bernard Houghton with Frankie Pennington riding. This two-year-old gelding won his last start at Parx and shows fastest leading ability. The Houghton-Pennington combination has been productive.​

Smoked Bourbon enters for Kate DeMasi with Silvestre Gonzalez aboard. This two-year-old colt won his debut at Parx and shows tactical speed to factor.​

Betting Strategy

Red Zone Runner appears the horse to beat given his dominant recent form and tactical speed advantage. However, the Butch Reid duo of Flyin Hawaiian and Mailata provides formidable opposition, particularly with quality riders aboard. Structure exactas using Red Zone Runner on top with Reid runners underneath. Include Mister Me in trifectas as the value stalker. Use Red Zone Runner, Flyin Hawaiian, and Mailata in vertical sequences given their class and connections.

Selections

Win: Red Zone Runner

Place: Flyin Hawaiian

Show: Mailata

7th Race – Cornucopia Stakes

Post Time: 2:47 PM

Six and one-half furlongs for fillies and mares three years old and upward. Purse $75,000 Guaranteed.

Pace Analysis

This 10-horse stakes field features significant early speed that will produce contested fractions. Top Gun Girl shows the fastest pace profile and should establish the lead. Alani also possesses early speed and figures prominently from the rail. Takethemoneyhoney brings tactical speed as well, though potential scratches exist given her recent Saturday engagement at Laurel. The pace pressure should set up value for closers like Nature’s Candy and Doctor Abbie if the leaders engage through aggressive splits.​

Key Contenders

Alani draws the advantageous rail post for trainer Michael Moore. This four-year-old filly has finished second behind stakes winners in her last two starts, demonstrating consistent class. The rail speed provides tactical advantage to establish position economically, and Moore’s 21 percent win rate at Parx offers confidence. Andy Hernandez takes the mount, and his 18 percent win rate provides solid piloting. The fastest leading running style suits the speed-favoring Parx surface.​

Nature’s Candy enters for Hugo Padilla with Abner Adorno aboard. This five-year-old mare has been in excellent form recently and shows a fast deep running style that allows tactical flexibility. Adorno rides at an 18 percent clip at Parx, and this mare’s recent groove makes her dangerous. She possesses the class to compete at this level and offers value at projected odds.​

Takethemoneyhoney brings class for trainer Michael Moore, though scratch concerns exist given her Saturday appearance at Laurel. This four-year-old filly won impressively last out and shows fastest deep running ability. If she draws in, Eliseo Ruiz provides quality piloting.​

Secondary Choices

Top Gun Girl enters for Jamie Ness with Mychel Sanchez aboard. The powerful Ness-Sanchez combination wins at a high percentage, though this mare shows inconsistent recent form. At projected odds, she offers value.​

Beach Daze returns as defending champion for Farrel Mann. This six-year-old mare upset this race last year at 10-1 and shows stellar form on wet tracks. Adam Bowman rides, and if residual moisture exists from overnight rain, this mare becomes significantly more dangerous.​

Doctor Abbie brings improvement for Timothy Kreiser. This five-year-old mare loves wet tracks and will be closing late. Angel Rodriguez rides, and she offers value at projected odds.​

Longshots

Mega Mil enters for John Servis with Frankie Pennington aboard. This three-year-old filly returns from a 46-day layoff but shows class. At longshot odds, she provides saver value in horizontal wagers.​

Eclair Blanc represents Louis Linder Jr. with Dexter Haddock riding. This four-year-old filly has consistent form at Parx and offers value at projected odds.​

Betting Strategy

Alani appears the logical choice from the rail with consistent class and tactical speed. Nature’s Candy provides the primary alternative given her recent form and tactical flexibility. Structure exactas with these two on top. Include Takethemoneyhoney if she draws in, along with Top Gun Girl and Beach Daze in trifectas. Use Alani and Nature’s Candy in vertical sequences with broader coverage underneath given the competitive nature. Monitor weather closely, as residual moisture significantly enhances Beach Daze’s chances.

Selections

Win: Alani

Place: Nature’s Candy

Show: Takethemoneyhoney

8th Race – Turkey Trot Stakes

Post Time: 3:14 PM

One mile and seventy yards for three year olds and upward. Purse $75,000 Guaranteed.

Pace Analysis

This eight-horse route features multiple speed types that will contest the early lead. Hermoso Hombre shows tactical speed and should establish forward position. Jamie Dreams also possesses early speed and figures prominently. Awesome Flay brings tactical ability as well, suggesting honest fractions through moderate opening splits. The route distance allows stalkers like Adero and closers like Irish Cork to position effectively and time their moves through the stretch.​​

Key Contenders

Adero enters for trainer John Servis with Abner Adorno aboard. This five-year-old gelding finished third behind Point Doom in his last start and shows consistent class. The 1 mile 70-yard distance suits his slower stalking running style, and he possesses the tactical speed to position perfectly behind the leaders. Servis brings quality training, and Adorno’s 18 percent win rate at Parx provides confidence. This gelding has nine wins at Parx from 18 starts, demonstrating effectiveness over the track.​​

Irish Cork brings experience and class for John Servis with Angel Rodriguez aboard. This eight-year-old gelding possesses tactical speed and shows consistent form, though he lacks recent wins. The route distance suits his running style, and Rodriguez provides quality piloting. He figures to come running late and offers value in exactas and trifectas underneath favorites.​​

Call Me Fast returns for Jamie Ness with Mychel Sanchez riding after a blitzing victory against lesser. This six-year-old gelding shows tactical speed and represents the powerful Ness-Sanchez combination that wins at 29 percent together. The route distance suits, and this gelding possesses the class to compete at this level.​

Secondary Choices

Ninetyprcentmaddie enters for Butch Reid with Frankie Pennington aboard. This five-year-old gelding shows stakes class but inconsistent form. At projected odds, he offers value in horizontal wagers given Reid’s training prowess.​​

Jamie Dreams brings tactical speed for Louis Linder Jr. with Ruben Silvera riding. This six-year-old gelding shows ability but faces tough competition in this field.​​

Longshots

Hermoso Hombre enters in career-best form for Juan Polanco. This four-year-old gelding won three of his last four starts at Parx and shows tactical speed. At longshot odds, he provides saver value if the pace sets up favorably.​​

Nixon Joy offers longshot value for Juan Polanco with Joezer Rangel aboard. This eight-year-old gelding from Argentina shows ability at this level and could factor at generous odds.​

Betting Strategy

Adero appears the horse to beat given his consistent class and tactical advantage in the running. The John Servis training and honest pace scenario set up perfectly for his stalking style. Use as primary selection with Irish Cork as the value alternative underneath. Include Call Me Fast in trifectas given the Ness-Sanchez combination. Structure vertical sequences using Adero on top with Irish Cork, Call Me Fast, and Ninetyprcentmaddie underneath.

Selections

Win: Adero

Place: Irish Cork

Show: Call Me Fast

9th Race – Shamrock Rose Stakes

Post Time: 3:41 PM

Six furlongs for registered Pennsylvania-bred two year old fillies. Purse $100,000 Guaranteed.

Pace Analysis

This 11-horse stakes field features Bounce and Coppedge as the likely pacesetters. Several entrants show tactical speed, suggesting contested fractions through the opening splits. The six-furlong sprint distance favors tactical speed types that can secure position early without burning excessive energy. Closers may struggle given the speed-favoring track bias unless the pace becomes suicidal.​

Key Contenders

River Escape enters off a spectacular debut victory for Kate DeMasi. This two-year-old filly by Essential Quality broke poorly but spread-eagled the field on November 5, winning impressively. The $120,000 purchase price demonstrates quality breeding, and her dominant performance suggests significant talent. Silvestre Gonzalez takes the mount, and despite the lack of recent workouts, this filly appears the class of the field. Drawing post 10 presents challenges, but her quality should overcome the outside post.​

Bounce enters for John Servis with Mychel Sanchez aboard. This two-year-old filly shows tactical speed and represents quality connections. The Servis-Sanchez combination provides confidence, and Sanchez’s 24 percent win rate at Parx offers strong piloting. Post four provides excellent position for her running style.​

Coppedge returns for John Servis with Abner Adorno riding. This two-year-old filly shows tactical ability and represents the powerful Servis stable. Adorno’s 18 percent win rate provides quality piloting, and this filly possesses the speed to factor.​

Secondary Choices

Divine Intentions enters for Tyler Servis with Frankie Pennington aboard. This two-year-old filly shows ability and represents quality connections. Pennington’s experience offers confidence.​

Wesawtaylorinparis brings class for Louis Linder Jr. with Dexter Haddock riding. This two-year-old filly shows tactical ability, and the Linder-Haddock combination has been productive at Parx.​

Longshots

Keystone State draws as morning line favorite but faces potential scratch concerns given cross-entry at Penn National. If she remains in the race, Angel Cruz’s absence as rider suggests connections prefer the Penn National engagement.​

Smart Philly offers longshot value for Murray Rojas. This two-year-old filly draws inside and could benefit from pace pressure.​

Betting Strategy

River Escape appears the standout despite the outside post and lack of recent workouts. Her dominant debut performance and quality breeding suggest significant talent that should overcome these concerns. Use as primary selection with the Servis duo of Bounce and Coppedge as alternatives. Structure exactas with River Escape on top over Bounce and Coppedge. Include Divine Intentions and Wesawtaylorinparis in trifectas for value. Use River Escape in vertical sequences as a potential single.

Selections

Win: River Escape

Place: Bounce

Show: Coppedge

10th Race – Let’s Give Thanks Stakes

Post Time: 4:08 PM

Six and one-half furlongs for three year olds and upward. Purse $75,000 Guaranteed.

Pace Analysis

This 10-horse stakes field features tactical speed throughout. Twisted Ride and Houghton Shuffle show the fastest profiles and should establish forward position. Maximus Meridius also possesses tactical speed, suggesting honest fractions. The six-and-a-half-furlong distance allows stalkers to position effectively while creating opportunities for closers if the pace becomes contested.​

Key Contenders

Maximus Meridius enters for Butch Reid with Mychel Sanchez aboard after scratch from the Dave’s Friend Stakes at Laurel. This four-year-old gelding has run effectively over this track and shows strong wet track form. The Reid-Sanchez combination wins at 33 percent together at Parx, providing significant confidence. Drawing post eight presents challenges, but Sanchez’s tactical skills should overcome the outside post. A three-week gap in workouts raises minor concerns, but the class and connections make this gelding the horse to beat.​

Twisted Ride returns for Michael Moore with Andy Hernandez aboard. This six-year-old gelding has been a consistent stakes performer with multiple Pennsylvania-bred stakes victories. The running style allows him to compete head-to-head and fight to the wire, often winning by narrow margins. Moore’s 21 percent win rate at Parx offers confidence, and this gelding possesses the class to compete at this level. However, potential scratch concerns exist given his recent engagement.​

Houghton Shuffle enters for Bernard Houghton with Frankie Pennington riding. This five-year-old gelding shows tactical speed and represents quality connections. Pennington’s experience provides confidence, and post two offers excellent position.​

Secondary Choices

Sunny Breeze returns for Edward Allard with Angel Rodriguez aboard after scratching from Saturday’s Dave’s Friend Stakes. This four-year-old gelding by First Dude shows consistent form with two wins and multiple placings in 2025. Rodriguez provides quality piloting, and this gelding has proven effective at Parx.​

Howgreatisnate enters for Andrew Simoff with Julio Hernandez riding. This five-year-old gelding shows ability on fast tracks but struggles on wet surfaces. Monitor weather closely, as residual moisture significantly reduces his chances.​

Longshots

Wax Box offers value for Lupe Guerrero with Dexter Haddock aboard. This three-year-old colt shows ability and could factor at generous odds.​

Bernie’s Mitts represents Jordan Bullock with Kendry Rivera riding. This four-year-old gelding shows consistency and offers longshot value in horizontal wagers.​

Betting Strategy

Maximus Meridius appears the logical choice given his class, connections, and proven Parx form. Use as primary selection with broader coverage underneath given the competitive nature. Structure exactas using Maximus Meridius on top with Houghton Shuffle, Twisted Ride, and Sunny Breeze underneath. Include value horses in trifectas and superfectas. Monitor scratches closely, particularly Twisted Ride given recent engagement concerns. Use Maximus Meridius as potential single in vertical sequences to close the card.

Selections

Win: Maximus Meridius

Place: Houghton Shuffle

Show: Twisted Ride

Jockey Notes and Insights

Mychel Sanchez continues his dominance at Parx Racing, leading all jockeys with 272 wins through 2025 and maintaining a strong 22-24 percent win rate. The Venezuelan rider has established himself as the go-to jockey for top connections, particularly with trainers Jamie Ness and Butch Reid, where he wins at exceptional clips. Sanchez rides stakes mounts in Races 4, 5, 6, and 10, providing significant betting angles when coupled with quality trainers.​

Jamie Ness employs Sanchez on multiple key runners throughout the card, including the powerful combination in Race 8 with Call Me Fast. The Ness-Sanchez partnership wins at 29 percent together, making any runner with this duo extremely dangerous.​

Dexter Haddock brings consistent form with 42 wins at Parx through mid-year and over $1 million in mount earnings. The veteran rider excels with Jamie Ness trainees and provides quality piloting across all race types. Haddock rides key contenders in Races 1, 5, 7, 9, and 10, offering value opportunities throughout the card.​

Frankie Pennington maintains solid form with 54 wins at Parx in 2025 and demonstrates effectiveness in stakes company. The experienced rider has picked up quality mounts in Races 6, 7, 8, and 9, representing trainers Bernard Houghton, Farrel Mann, Butch Reid, and Tyler Servis.​

Angel Rodriguez brings quality piloting skills with strong statistics at both Penn National and Parx. Rodriguez rides important stakes mounts in Races 6, 8, and 10, particularly with trainer Butch Reid in the Pennsylvania Nursery Stakes.​

Eliseo Ruiz provides consistent riding with 36 wins at Parx through mid-year and over $1 million in mount earnings. The veteran jockey excels in claiming races and offers value when paired with quality trainers.​

Luis Rivera brings tactical skills with strong connections to trainer Ernesto Padilla-Preciado. Rivera rides key contenders in Races 1, 3, and 8, offering value opportunities in claiming and stakes company.​

Trainer Notes and Insights

Jamie Ness dominates the Parx training ranks with 111 wins through November 24, 2025, maintaining his position as the top trainer at the track. The South Dakota State graduate operates full barns at Parx, Delaware Park, and Laurel Park, winning at 25 percent nationally with 313 total victories through 2025. Ness wins at 28 percent at Parx specifically and shows particular effectiveness when paired with jockeys Mychel Sanchez and Dexter Haddock.​

Ness sends out key contenders throughout the card, including Harlan’s Bond in Race 1, Top Gun Girl in Race 7, and Call Me Fast in Race 8. The barn’s consistency and high win percentage make any Ness runner worthy of serious consideration, particularly in claiming races where the stable excels at finding spots.​

Michael Pino operates on an extraordinary run at Parx in 2025, maintaining an astounding 37 percent win rate. Through early April, Pino was hitting at 45 percent before regressing to more sustainable but still exceptional levels. The veteran trainer demonstrates elite form placement and excellent timing with his runners. Pino’s 23 wins from 51 starts in early 2025 represented one of the hottest streaks in recent Parx history.​

Pino saddles critical contenders in Races 2, 4, and 5, including the morning line favorites Midlaner and Cojelo Pa Ti. When Pino pairs with Sanchez, the combination wins at 40 percent, creating formidable betting propositions. The trainer’s recent claiming moves have proven astute, finding the right spots for his improving runners.​

John Servis brings quality to the stakes races with multiple entrants in the Cornucopia Stakes, Turkey Trot Stakes, and Shamrock Rose Stakes. The veteran trainer demonstrates expertise placing horses at optimal levels and shows strong form in 2025.​

Butch Reid enters multiple runners in the Pennsylvania Nursery Stakes and Let’s Give Thanks Stakes, demonstrating confidence in his stable’s quality. The Reid-Sanchez combination proves particularly effective, winning at 33 percent together at Parx.​

Michael Moore trains consistent performers including Alani in the Cornucopia Stakes and Twisted Ride in the Let’s Give Thanks Stakes. Moore wins at 21 percent at Parx and demonstrates skill with improving horses and proper placement.​

Ernesto Padilla-Preciado maintains solid form with strong claiming horses throughout the card. The barn shows effectiveness at Parx and provides value opportunities in lower-level races.​

Kate DeMasi trains quality Pennsylvania-breds including River Escape in the Shamrock Rose Stakes. The stable demonstrates patience with young horses and proper development.​

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The mandatory payout provision in the Philly Big 5 (late pick 5) creates exceptional value opportunities in Races 6-10. The $145,980 carryover ensures significant pools, making this the day’s premier wagering target. Structure pick 5 tickets using singles in races with standout favorites while spreading in competitive spots.​

Suggested Pick 5 Construction (Races 6-10):

Race 6: Use Red Zone Runner, Flyin Hawaiian, Mailata, Mister Me (4 horses)

Race 7: Use Alani, Nature’s Candy, Takethemoneyhoney (3 horses – potential scratch concerns with #6)

Race 8: Single Adero (1 horse)

Race 9: Single River Escape (1 horse)

Race 10: Single Maximus Meridius (1 horse)

Cost: 12 combinations x $0.50 = $6.00

The Michael Pino factor creates multiple value opportunities throughout the card. In Race 2, Redoubtableripken offers value at projected odds given Pino’s 37 percent win rate. In Race 4, Midlaner represents the Pino-Sanchez combination that wins at 40 percent together. In Race 5, Cojelo Pa Ti dominated last out and represents single material.​

The Jamie Ness stable provides consistent value in claiming races. Harlan’s Bond in Race 1 offers strong win potential despite the layoff, given Ness’s 28 percent Parx win rate and proven ability with first-time starters for his barn. Call Me Fast in Race 8 represents the powerful Ness-Sanchez combination coming off a dominant victory.​

Value Play of the Day: Redoubtableripken (Race 2) represents exceptional value given trainer Michael Pino’s extraordinary 37 percent win rate at Parx. If this gelding goes off at 7-2 or higher, the value proposition becomes compelling for win betting and as a key horse in horizontal wagers.​

Longshot Special: Beach Daze (Race 7) defended this Cornucopia Stakes title last year at 10-1 and shows stellar wet track form. If residual moisture exists from overnight rain, this mare becomes significantly live at generous odds. Consider win-place betting if morning line odds of 15-1 hold.​

Pick 3 Strategy (Races 8-9-10): This closing sequence offers exceptional value opportunities:

Race 8: Adero, Irish Cork, Call Me Fast (3 horses)

Race 9: River Escape (1 horse)

Race 10: Maximus Meridius, Houghton Shuffle (2 horses)

Cost: 6 combinations x $2.00 = $12.00

The sequence keys River Escape as a single in the Shamrock Rose Stakes based on her dominant debut and quality breeding. This creates manageable ticket costs while maintaining upside potential.​

Daily Double Plays: Focus on Race 5-6 and Race 9-10 daily doubles for value. The Race 5-6 double keys Cojelo Pa Ti with multiple Pennsylvania Nursery contenders, providing reasonable ticket costs with substantial upside. The Race 9-10 double utilizes River Escape and Maximus Meridius as potential singles to close the card profitably.​

Exacta Box Strategy: Focus exacta boxes on races with clear top contenders but competitive underneath horses. In Race 4, box Midlaner and Yuletide Gallop (2×2=$4) for value given the Pino factor and competitive pace scenario. In Race 7, box Alani and Nature’s Candy (2×2=$4) for value given their class and tactical advantages.​

Monitor weather conditions closely throughout the card, as residual moisture from overnight rain significantly impacts several horses’ chances, particularly Beach Daze in Race 7, multiple contenders in Race 8, and Howgreatisnate in Race 10. Track condition changes create value opportunities on horses with proven wet track form.​

The trainer and jockey combinations of Ness-Sanchez, Pino-Sanchez, and Reid-Sanchez create compelling betting angles throughout the card. When these partnerships align with proper class placement and favorable post positions, they represent standout value regardless of odds.

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