Posted inAnalysis Reports

Assiniboia Downs – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the August 19, 2026 card

No CommentsPosted inAnalysis, Reports

TL;DR


Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

 

The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

 

Race Day Overview — Assiniboia Downs | August 19, 2026

Assiniboia Downs presents a seven-race Wednesday card with post times beginning at 8:30 AM local (Winnipeg) time, running a mix of claiming races, maiden special weights, and the marquee event of the afternoon — the CTHSSales50k stakes in Race 3. The card features several competitive claiming races at the $3,000 to $12,500 level, a pair of maiden special weight contests, and solid purse money throughout. The track sits in Winnipeg, Manitoba, and as a bullring-style oval measuring five furlongs around, it presents unique pace and post position considerations that seasoned ASD handicappers know well.

The headline race today is Race 3, the CTHSSales50k, a 1210-foot (six-furlong) dirt stakes on the north course for horses eligible through the Canadian Thoroughbred Horse Society's sales conditions. With a $50,000 purse, this is the richest event on today's card and has drawn nine horses including the morning line favorite Circle The Bird (POST 9) at even money. The Pacific Classic and Juddmonte International are both running this weekend at Del Mar and York respectively, generating buzz in the broader racing world about Breeders' Cup prep races, but the local ASD faithful will have their attention locked on the home product today.

Trainer Jerry Gourneau has four horses entered across the card today, making him the dominant barn to watch. Antonio Whitehall figures prominently in the jockey colony, drawing mounts in six of seven races, underscoring his status as one of the meet's busiest and most trusted riders.

Weather and Track Conditions — Assiniboia Downs | August 19, 2026

Winnipeg in mid-August is typically warm and dry, and the extended forecast for August 19 points to partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius (approximately 72-76°F). No significant rainfall is expected heading into race day, which should leave the main track surface in fast condition. Assiniboia Downs' dirt strip tends to dry quickly in summer conditions, and with no precipitation in the immediate forecast window, a fast track rating is the working assumption for handicapping purposes.

The ASD main track is a tight five-furlong oval that plays very differently from larger North American ovals. Its compact circumference means turns come quickly, the stretch run is short, and the surface can develop a rail-favoring or speed-favoring bias that shifts throughout the day based on morning maintenance. The track's inner rail tends to firm up significantly as the card progresses, particularly on dry summer days, and horses that can get to the front and control fractions on this surface have a decided advantage in most sprint-distance races.

For today's card, a predominantly fast, sealed surface is expected with no rail bias shifts anticipated barring any morning prep surprises. Bettors should monitor any official track condition updates through Equibase prior to the first post.

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

Assiniboia Downs is a notoriously speed-friendly bullring. At five furlongs around, the first turn arrives almost immediately out of the gate, meaning outside posts are at a geometric disadvantage in most races — horses in the widest posts must use early energy to secure position before the first bend, often compromising their late rally. Inside posts, particularly posts 1 through 4, historically hold a meaningful edge at ASD in sprint distances, which constitute the bulk of today's card.

In longer routes at ASD (1650 feet and beyond), the bias softens somewhat because there is more time and real estate to establish position, but inside posts still offer a tactical advantage for stalker-style horses that can sit just off a quick pace and pounce turning for home.

Sprint races at 1210 feet (six furlongs) and 1320 feet (seven furlongs) are the most dramatically affected by post position. Horses breaking from posts 1-3 can get to the rail immediately and save ground throughout. Posts 7 and beyond face a longer run to the first turn and, in a speed-heavy field, can find themselves forced five or six wide before settling. Today's cards at 1210 and 1320 furlongs favor inside and mid-range posts, while the lone 1760-foot maiden race (Race 2) and the 1650-foot claiming race (Race 6) provide some relief for outside runners who can stalk and close.

Speed bias is the overriding factor at ASD. Horses that have demonstrated the ability to control pace from the front or secure a ground-saving position early are statistically overrepresented in the winner's circle here. In claiming races at the $3,000-$5,000 level, which dominate today's card, front runners and pace pressers with tactical speed are the profiles to target.

RACE 1 — Post 8:30/(7:30)/6:30/5:30 — 1320f | D | C | Clm 5000n2l | BUN | Purse $10,100

This opener goes 1320 feet on the main dirt strip for $5,000 claimers that have not won two lifetime. The non-winners of two condition places this race at the lower end of the claiming hierarchy, and the six-horse field should see a relatively honest pace scenario develop.

Pace Analysis

Rugged Rooster (POST 3) draws in as the 1-1 morning line favorite and figures to be prominent early. Run Matteo Run (POST 5) at 2-1 also has speed in his past performances and will apply pressure. Borderland (POST 2) at 4-1 likely settles just off the early heat. The pace should be honest to fast in the early stages given at least two confirmed speed horses, which sets up a potential scenario where a pace presser or closer could benefit. However, on this surface and at this distance, front runners who get clean fractions are very dangerous even when challenged.

Key Contenders

Rugged Rooster (POST 3) carries the morning line favoritism at 1-1 under trainer Terry Cole and jockey Antonio Whitehall. Whitehall is the busiest and one of the most effective riders at the ASD meet this summer, and his booking here is a significant positive signal. The 1-1 price reflects a horse the market believes is the best in this spot, and in a short six-horse field at the non-winners-of-two level, it will take a dominant effort to justify the short price. Whitehall's ability to time a move on this compact oval is a genuine edge.

Run Matteo Run (POST 5) at 2-1 is the second choice on the morning line, trained by Tiffany Husbands and ridden by Matthew Bennett. Husbands is an active trainer at the meet, and Bennett has been a consistent presence in the jockey colony. Post 5 is slightly outside in a six-horse field, but at 1320 feet there is enough run to the first turn to allow a speed horse to angle in. If Run Matteo Run (POST 5) can clear to the front before Rugged Rooster (POST 3) establishes command, this race becomes very interesting.

Secondary Choices

Borderland (POST 2) at 4-1, trained by Jerry Gourneau with Neville Stephenson in the irons, gets a favorable inside post. Gourneau is among the meet's leading trainers and is particularly effective at identifying claiming horses that fit at the appropriate level. Stephenson is a reliable jockey at this circuit and the inside draw could see Borderland (POST 2) rated kindly just off the early pace and be first to pounce if the speed horses tire.

Cashflow (POST 4) at 5-1 draws mid-field for trainer Carl Anderson and jockey Larry Munoz. With a neutral post and a morning line suggesting this horse is a step below the favorites, Cashflow (POST 4) is a singles threat only if the pace collapses.

Longshots

Moonman Rules (POST 6) at 10-1 for trainer Maria Stanford and jockey Devante Prescod gets the extreme outside post in a sprint, which is a challenge at this oval. Will need a perfect setup with a fast and contested pace to make up ground from that position.

My Rembrandt (POST 1) at 20-1 trained by Eugene Burns with R. Cumberbatch up gets the rail post but the big morning line odds suggest significant class or form concerns. The inside post is a positive factor but insufficient alone to generate a bet at this level.

Betting Strategy

Rugged Rooster (POST 3) is likely to be underlaid at 1-1 in the windows given the market support. The value angle here is Borderland (POST 2) at 4-1 if Gourneau's barn is sharp and Stephenson can rate the horse to run through the stretch. Exotics: use Rugged Rooster (POST 3) and Run Matteo Run (POST 5) on top with Borderland (POST 2) underneath in exacta combinations. A small saver with Borderland (POST 2) on top over the favorites is the value play.

Selections

Win: Rugged Rooster (POST 3) Place: Borderland (POST 2) Show: Run Matteo Run (POST 5)

RACE 2 — Post 9:00/(8:00)/7:00/6:00 — 1760f | D | S | Md Sp Wt | BUN | Purse $21,500

The second race is a maiden special weight route going 1760 feet on the main dirt — essentially a mile at ASD. Maiden specials at ASD are typically dominated by better-bred stock from established barns, and the $21,500 purse is solid for a non-winners event. Six horses are entered.

Pace Analysis

American Witt (POST 1) at 1-1 is likely the morning line's recognition of a talented horse that should control pace from the rail. Canadian Lites (POST 5) at 2-1 and Charlie's Prize (POST 6) at 2-1 are the other major factors. In a route race with three morning line singles through the top three, the pace scenario depends heavily on which horse wants to be on the front end. The 1760-foot distance at ASD allows for a more genuine pace scenario where horses can find their rhythm before the final turn.

Key Contenders

American Witt (POST 1) draws the rail under trainer Jerry Gourneau and jockey Damario Bynoe. The 1-1 morning line is emphatic. Gourneau has a barn in form, and the rail post in a maiden route at ASD is enormously favorable — there is no wasted ground, and a horse of ability can save every inch while controlling fractions. Bynoe gets a key booking from a leading trainer, which is always worth noting at a smaller circuit.

Canadian Lites (POST 5) at 2-1 for trainer Judy Hunter and jockey Rachaad Knights presents an interesting profile. Hunter has been an active presence in the ASD maiden ranks this summer, and Knights is developing into a capable rider at this oval. Post 5 is workable at 1760 feet where speed-favoring tendencies are less punishing than in shorter sprints. If American Witt (POST 1) gets loose on the front end, Canadian Lites (POST 5) will need to settle and rally, which is a more difficult task on this surface.

Charlie's Prize (POST 6) at 2-1 for trainer Charlene Miller and jockey Antonio Whitehall is the third co-second choice. Whitehall's presence immediately elevates any horse's profile at ASD, and Miller has been a consistent minor player at this circuit. The outside post is the concern — in a maiden race where horses may be green and erratic, post 6 means traffic risk. If Charlie's Prize (POST 6) breaks well and Whitehall can secure a tracking position, this horse is fully capable of competing.

Secondary Choices

Mimicry (POST 2) at 20-1 for trainer Sherry Laing and jockey Arthur Budhu is a major longshot that gets a workable inside post. Maiden specials at this level can produce a loose-on-the-front-end scenario where the outsider upsets expectations.

Ifurnotearlyurlate (POST 3) at 15-1 trained by Tiffany Husbands with R. Cumberbatch riding has an inside draw that works in its favor. Cumberbatch is a reliable pilot but the odds suggest the horse needs significant improvement to compete.

Longshots

Messagefromheaven (POST 4) at 25-1 for trainer Jennifer Jordan and jockey Rashawn Brewster is a substantial price in a field where three horses share the majority of the morning line support. With a neutral post draw, Messagefromheaven (POST 4) would need a complete pace collapse by the favorites to factor.

Betting Strategy

American Witt (POST 1) figures to be very short in the windows, potentially below even money given the Gourneau connection and rail draw. The value play in this race is Charlie's Prize (POST 6) at 2-1 using Whitehall's record at ASD as a tiebreaker. Exacta structure: American Witt (POST 1) on top of Canadian Lites (POST 5) and Charlie's Prize (POST 6); also box Canadian Lites (POST 5) and Charlie's Prize (POST 6) for a saver. Mimicry (POST 2) at 20-1 is worth a small show bet given the inside post in a maiden route where anything can happen.

Selections

Win: American Witt (POST 1) Place: Charlie's Prize (POST 6) Show: Canadian Lites (POST 5)

RACE 3 — Post 9:25/(8:25)/7:25/6:25 — 1210f | D | N | CTHSSales50k | AON | Purse $50,000

The feature of the day. The CTHSSales50k is a $50,000 stakes event going 1210 feet on the north course dirt for horses eligible through the Canadian Thoroughbred Horse Society sales conditions. Nine horses are entered, and the field represents some of the better horses at the ASD meet this summer. This is an AON (all-other-nations) condition, opening the race to a broader international eligibility base.

Pace Analysis

Circle The Bird (POST 9) is the even-money morning line choice but draws the outside post in a nine-horse field at 1210 feet — a significant concern on this oval where outside posts are at a geometric disadvantage. Today's Agenda (POST 1) and C J's Mayzee (POST 3) figure to factor prominently on the pace. With Circle The Bird (POST 9) starting from the extreme outside, the pace pressure will come from the inner posts, and there could be a legitimate hot pace scenario if the speed horses duel early. Maximum Uproar (POST 4) for trainer Keith Pederson also has tactical speed that could complicate matters up front. If the pace is genuinely contested, a horse tracking the action from a mid-field position could be set up perfectly for a late run.

Key Contenders

Circle The Bird (POST 9) at 1-1 for trainer Michael Nault and jockey Kerron Khelawan is the market's top choice, which speaks to the horse's underlying ability. However, post 9 in a six-furlong sprint at ASD is a genuine liability, and Khelawan will need to either gun the horse early to establish position — burning energy in the process — or allow the field to clear before finding a path. Nault has two horses in this race (also Today's Agenda (POST 1)), suggesting the trainer is confident in both, but Circle The Bird (POST 9) is the preferred runner by morning line. The even-money price on a horse from post 9 in a nine-horse field at this oval represents poor value.

Today's Agenda (POST 1) at 5-1 for trainer Michael Nault and jockey Matthew Bennett is a fascinating play. The same barn as the favorite, but from a dramatically superior post. Bennett gets a good horse from the rail in a stakes sprint, and if Nault's barn is firing, Today's Agenda (POST 1) could receive a positive in-barn tip of sorts through the trainer's dual entry. Front-running or stalking ability combined with the inside post makes this horse one of the most interesting value plays on the entire card.

C J's Mayzee (POST 3) at 4-1 for trainer Jared Brown and jockey Dario Dalrymple has a tactical post draw just off the inside. Brown is an effective conditioner at ASD and Dalrymple has been improving his numbers at this meet. If C J's Mayzee (POST 3) can stalk the pace from the third post, this horse is set up for the ideal trip in a stakes sprint.

Secondary Choices

Maximum Uproar (POST 4) at 6-1 for trainer Keith Pederson and jockey Antonio Whitehall is a live contender with a solid mid-field draw. Whitehall's presence is a significant plus — in a stakes race at ASD, his experience on this oval provides a meaningful tactical edge. Maximum Uproar (POST 4) at 6-1 with Whitehall aboard is the overlaid contender in this race.

Grand Slam Duke (POST 2) at 15-1 trained by Mike Taphorn with Neville Stephenson gets a solid inside draw but the odds suggest the horse needs improvement to be competitive at this level. Taphorn also saddles Mechanic Betty (POST 5) in this race.

Longshots

Mechanic Betty (POST 5) at 25-1 for the Taphorn barn with Devante Prescod riding is likely here to test a better animal and will need a pace collapse to factor.

Born To Succeed (POST 6) at 15-1 for trainer Wendy Anderson and jockey Javaniel R. Patterson presents as a mid-field draw with an outside chance if the pace wires itself.

Poshdaddy (POST 7) at 25-1 for trainer Terry Neubuhr and jockey Rashawn Brewster must overcome a wide draw and significant odds in a competitive stakes.

Sasha's Dream (POST 8) at 20-1 for trainer Steven Gaskin and jockey Rachaad Knights is another horse with a problematic outside draw in this sprint. Knights is a capable jockey but even his talent cannot overcome 20-1 odds and post 8 without a significant pace collapse.

Circle The Bird (POST 9) is the favorite but as noted, the post position concern is real. Handicappers have flagged this horse as the class of the field, but the value is clearly elsewhere.

Betting Strategy

This is the race of the day for value-oriented handicappers. Circle The Bird (POST 9) at 1-1 from post 9 should be faded in win betting. The move is to back Today's Agenda (POST 1) at 5-1 or better, with Maximum Uproar (POST 4) at 6-1 representing the most attractive price-to-quality ratio on the card. Exacta structure: Today's Agenda (POST 1) and Maximum Uproar (POST 4) over C J's Mayzee (POST 3) and Circle The Bird (POST 9) as savers. Trifecta: focus on Today's Agenda (POST 1) and Maximum Uproar (POST 4) on top with C J's Mayzee (POST 3) and Circle The Bird (POST 9) filling. A small win bet on Today's Agenda (POST 1) at 5-1 against the heavily favored barn mate offers genuine value.

Selections

Win: Today's Agenda (POST 1) Place: Maximum Uproar (POST 4) Show: C J's Mayzee (POST 3)

RACE 4 — Post 9:50/(8:50)/7:50/6:50 — 1320f | D | C | Clm 5000n3l | BUN | Purse $10,200

Seven horses are entered in this 1320-foot dirt claiming sprint for $5,000 horses that have not won three lifetime. The n3l condition suggests a slightly more experienced group than Race 1's n2l condition, and the field is competitive throughout.

Pace Analysis

Mischievous Intent (POST 4) at 2-1 and J L Copper (POST 6) at 2-1 share the morning line favoritism, with Rocky Top Mischief (POST 5) at 4-1 adding speed from a tactical post. Mr. Splash (POST 7) at 4-1 from the outside could be forced wide. The pace in this race figures to be genuinely contested early given multiple speed types, and the inside horses should benefit. Mischievous Intent (POST 4) with the mid-draw and strong morning line support is likely the most capable horse in the race from a class perspective.

Key Contenders

Mischievous Intent (POST 4) at 2-1 for trainer Jerry Gourneau and jockey Dario Dalrymple is the top selection. Gourneau's dominance at this meet is well-established, and Dalrymple has been building solid numbers at ASD this summer. A neutral post draw at 1320 feet gives Mischievous Intent (POST 4) every opportunity to settle in a comfortable stalking position before making a move. At 2-1, the price reflects the market's confidence.

J L Copper (POST 6) at 2-1 for trainer Jared Brown and jockey Antonio Whitehall is the co-favorite. Whitehall's record at ASD commands respect, and Brown has been effective at placing horses at appropriate levels. Post 6 in a seven-horse field at 1320 feet is slightly outside but not prohibitive — Whitehall is skilled enough to navigate the first turn without using excessive early energy. This is a genuine two-horse race at the top, and J L Copper (POST 6) is the equal of Mischievous Intent (POST 4) on morning line.

Secondary Choices

Rocky Top Mischief (POST 5) at 4-1 for trainer Jason Homer and jockey Neville Stephenson is a pace threat from post 5. Homer has been sending out competitive horses at ASD this meet, and Stephenson is a capable veteran on this circuit. If Rocky Top Mischief (POST 5) can establish a front-running position before J L Copper (POST 6) or Mischievous Intent (POST 4) make their moves, there is a legitimate upset threat here at a fair price.

Mr. Splash (POST 7) at 4-1 for trainer Mike Taphorn and jockey Rachaad Knights has the outside post going into a seven-furlong sprint at ASD — not ideal. Knights is capable but TAPHORN has multiple runners today and this may be his secondary entry. At 4-1, the price is not generous enough given the post position disadvantage.

Longshots

Karanthos (POST 1) at 10-1 for trainer Terry Neubuhr and jockey Rashawn Brewster gets the rail in a seven-horse field. Despite the inside draw, the 10-1 morning line suggests significant form concerns. Worth using underneath in trifectas at a wide price.

Shankadopolous (POST 2) at 20-1 for trainer Andre Ellis and jockey Devante Prescod gets a workable post 2 draw but the long odds indicate this horse needs significant improvement to compete with the class of the field.

Smackover Lime (POST 3) at 30-1 for trainer Tom Gardipy Jr and jockey Tyrone Nelson is a throwout in win wagering at this price, though an inside post draw keeps the horse technically alive in multi-race tickets.

Betting Strategy

The two co-favorites Mischievous Intent (POST 4) and J L Copper (POST 6) likely come in at or below their morning line in the windows. The exacta between these two is the logical play — box them at 2-1 and 2-1 for modest value. Rocky Top Mischief (POST 5) at 4-1 is the best value horse to use as the upset key in trifectas. Trifecta: use Mischievous Intent (POST 4) and J L Copper (POST 6) over Rocky Top Mischief (POST 5) over Karanthos (POST 1) for a deeper price.

Selections

Win: Mischievous Intent (POST 4) Place: J L Copper (POST 6) Show: Rocky Top Mischief (POST 5)

RACE 5 — Post 10:15/(9:15)/8:15/7:15 — 1210f | D | C | Clm 10000 | BUN | Purse $16,500

The $10,000 claiming level is a significant step up from the $5,000 races that open the card. Seven horses contest this six-furlong sprint, and the purse of $16,500 reflects the higher quality. Rolling On (POST 3) and Time Machine (POST 5) share co-favorite status at 2-1.

Pace Analysis

Two co-favorites at 2-1 with clear tactical speed profiles sets up a potentially contested early pace. Rolling On (POST 3) from an inside post and Time Machine (POST 5) from a mid-field draw are both likely to be prominent early. Call The Cavalry (POST 6) at 4-1 adds pace pressure from outside. If three horses press the front, the pace could get genuinely hot, setting up a late-running type. However, at ASD in sprint races, even a fast pace rarely produces come-from-behind winners unless the pace is truly suicidal.

Key Contenders

Rolling On (POST 3) at 2-1 for trainer Jason Homer and jockey Shavon Townsend gets a solid inside draw at 1210 feet. Homer has been sending out well-prepared runners throughout this meet, and Townsend is a capable jockey at this circuit. The inside post means Rolling On (POST 3) can establish position early without burning energy on a wide trip. At 2-1, this horse represents the logical win bet in the race.

Time Machine (POST 5) at 2-1 for trainer Perry Cavanaugh and jockey R. Cumberbatch is the other co-favorite. Cavanaugh is an established trainer at ASD and Cumberbatch has been busy throughout the meet. Post 5 in a seven-horse field at 1210 feet is neutral, giving Time Machine (POST 5) every opportunity to find a stalking position off Rolling On (POST 3) and make a sustained run to the wire.

Secondary Choices

Call The Cavalry (POST 6) at 4-1 for trainer Craig Robert Smith and jockey Rachaad Knights is the clear third choice. Knights has been among the more active and successful jockeys at this meet, and Smith's barn has been placing horses competitively. At 4-1, Call The Cavalry (POST 6) offers some value if the speed horses duel themselves into trouble.

My Wife Is Right (POST 2) at 7-1 for trainer Jerry Gourneau and jockey Dario Dalrymple gets a favorable inside draw. The Gourneau barn's form is excellent throughout this card, and Dalrymple has been effective in partnership with this trainer. At 7-1, My Wife Is Right (POST 2) is a significant value play, especially with the inside draw working in this horse's favor on a surface that rewards early position.

Longshots

Freeze 'em (POST 1) at 10-1 for trainer Sherry Laing and jockey Arthur Budhu gets the rail. At 10-1, Freeze 'em (POST 1) is a longshot with the best post position in the field. If Laing has this horse ready to fire — and she has been active at ASD — this is a genuine upset candidate in deep trifectas.

Soaringforthesun (POST 7) at 12-1 for trainer Wendy Anderson and jockey Christopher Roy Mamdeen draws the outside in a sprint, making a challenging trip likely from the start. At 12-1, Anderson's runner is best left for longshot trifecta coverage.

Valley Victory (POST 4) at 15-1 for trainer Elton Dickey and jockey Antonio Whitehall is interesting. Whitehall draws this mount in the middle of the card, and despite the 15-1 morning line, his presence creates a mild alert. Dickey's barn is not among the meet's leaders, however, and 15-1 reflects genuine form concerns for Valley Victory (POST 4).

Betting Strategy

The exacta between Rolling On (POST 3) and Time Machine (POST 5) is the obvious play but will be heavily wagered, suppressing value. The best approach is to single one of them on top and key My Wife Is Right (POST 2) at 7-1 underneath in exactas, or use My Wife Is Right (POST 2) on top over the co-favorites in a reverse exacta for a larger return. Trifecta: Rolling On (POST 3) and Time Machine (POST 5) over My Wife Is Right (POST 2) and Call The Cavalry (POST 6) over Freeze 'em (POST 1) as a deeper finish option.

Selections

Win: Rolling On (POST 3) Place: Time Machine (POST 5) Show: My Wife Is Right (POST 2)

RACE 6 — Post 10:40/(9:40)/8:40/7:40 — 1650f | D | C | Clm 3000n1y | BUN | Purse $10,000

The lowest claiming level on today's card — $3,000 for horses that have not won in a year — with ten horses going 1650 feet on the dirt. This is the most unpredictable race on the card by class and form, as n1y conditions attract horses that may have scattered efforts over the past twelve months. Charming Charlie (POST 1) and Sam's Promise (POST 6) are the co-morning line favorites at 2-1, both from the Gourneau barn.

Pace Analysis

At 1650 feet, the pace scenario is more nuanced than in shorter sprints. Charming Charlie (POST 1) from the rail with early speed could control the fractions in what may be a relatively slow early pace given the class level. Cherokee Sunrise (POST 8) at 7-1 and Gallant Oak (POST 9) at 6-1 from outside posts will need a legitimate pace to exploit late. Sam's Promise (POST 6) from mid-field will likely take up a stalking role for jockey Dalrymple. The 1650-foot distance is long enough that a wire-to-wire victory from Charming Charlie (POST 1) is achievable but not guaranteed.

Key Contenders

Charming Charlie (POST 1) at 2-1 for trainer Jerry Gourneau and jockey Sven Balroop gets the prime inside post and co-favoritism. Gourneau has four runners on today's card and two in this race — the dual entry gives the barn options, but the rail draw for Charming Charlie (POST 1) in a ten-horse field at this distance is an unmistakable advantage. Balroop is a capable jockey at this circuit, and from the inside post Charming Charlie (POST 1) figures to control terms in a field with modest class credentials.

Sam's Promise (POST 6) at 2-1 for trainer Jerry Gourneau and jockey Dario Dalrymple is the co-favorite from mid-field. Gourneau saddling two horses at 2-1 each means the trainer is genuinely confident about both, and Dalrymple's position at the top of the jockey standings makes this a formidable combination. The interesting question is whether the Gourneau barn is primarily trying to win with one specific horse or simply has two quality runners at this level. In claiming races, both are live threats.

Secondary Choices

Gallant Oak (POST 9) at 6-1 for trainer Carman Mustard and jockey Neville Stephenson draws outside but at 1650 feet, the distance penalty is less severe. Mustard is an active trainer at ASD, and Stephenson is a veteran who can position a horse effectively even from an outside draw. At 6-1 against two 2-1 favorites from the same barn, Gallant Oak (POST 9) offers the best value for an upset scenario.

Cherokee Sunrise (POST 8) at 7-1 for trainer Perry Cavanaugh and jockey R. Cumberbatch is another horse with a wide draw but a capable jockey. Cavanaugh also has Time Machine (POST 5) running earlier today, suggesting the barn is active and in form. Cherokee Sunrise (POST 8) at 7-1 is worth a small win flyer.

Free Maker (POST 3) at 5-1 for trainer Fred Rawson and jockey Antonio Whitehall is a genuine contender with an excellent inside draw. Whitehall on a 5-1 shot with an inside draw in a ten-horse field is exactly the profile that wins overlooked races at small circuits. This horse deserves respect at the price.

Longshots

Rick's Dancer (POST 2) at 30-1 for trainer Tom Gardipy Jr and jockey Devante Prescod gets an inside post but the enormous odds indicate severe form concerns.

Eye Be Seeing You (POST 4) at 25-1 for trainer Robert Maybin and jockey Javaniel R. Patterson is another improbable price in win wagering.

Fast Traffic (POST 5) at 15-1 for trainer Tom Gardipy Jr and jockey S. Chickeness offers a neutral post but the 15-1 morning line reflects Gardipy's third entry in this race — the trainer has three horses entered (Rick's Dancer (POST 2), Fast Traffic (POST 5), and Poderoso Equs (POST 7)), suggesting a barn that is throwing darts in search of a spot rather than a specific runner with a clear edge.

Poderoso Equs (POST 7) at 30-1 for trainer Tom Gardipy Jr and jockey Tyrone Nelson is the third Gardipy entry and at 30-1 is essentially a throwout.

Captive Kitten (POST 10) at 40-1 for trainer Victoria Morse and jockey Douglas Badaloo draws the extreme outside post in a ten-horse field at this distance. A complete pace collapse by the favorites would be required for any factor. Pass in win wagering.

Betting Strategy

The Gourneau double-entry at 2-1 each creates a natural key situation. Key Charming Charlie (POST 1) on top in exactas to Sam's Promise (POST 6) for a modest price, then reverse. The better value play is to key Free Maker (POST 3) at 5-1 on top of Charming Charlie (POST 1) and Sam's Promise (POST 6) for an exacta upset, leveraging Whitehall's strong record at ASD. Trifecta: use Charming Charlie (POST 1) and Sam's Promise (POST 6) on top over Free Maker (POST 3) and Gallant Oak (POST 9) over Cherokee Sunrise (POST 8) for a deeper ticket.

Selections

Win: Charming Charlie (POST 1) Place: Free Maker (POST 3) Show: Sam's Promise (POST 6)

RACE 7 — Post 11:05/(10:05)/9:05/8:05 — 1320f | D | AO | OClm 12500b | BUN | Purse $17,000

The card closes with the highest-claiming-level race of the day — a $12,500 optional claiming event going 1320 feet on the main dirt strip for all other nations eligibility. Seven horses are entered, and Prime Suspect (POST 4) at 1-1 is a dominating morning line favorite.

Pace Analysis

Prime Suspect (POST 4) at 1-1 is the clear class horse and will likely control or be prominent in the early fractions. Finding Ways (POST 5) at 2-1 adds pace pressure from the inside of the outside half of the draw. Bati King (POST 7) at 4-1 from the extreme outside will need to work hard early or settle far back. Preachers Secret (POST 1) from the rail at 6-1 could apply front pressure from the rail. The pace should be honest given Prime Suspect (POST 4) with tactical speed and Preachers Secret (POST 1) potentially pressing from the inside.

Key Contenders

Prime Suspect (POST 4) at 1-1 for trainer Steve Keplin Jr and jockey Sven Balroop is the definitive morning line selection in the card closer. At this level in an optional claimer, a horse going off at 1-1 in a seven-horse field has demonstrated enough quality to command significant market respect. Balroop gets a key booking in the finale, and the neutral post draw gives Prime Suspect (POST 4) every tactical option. The concern, as always with an even-money shot, is the lack of value in straight wagering — but the horse's ability is not in question.

Finding Ways (POST 5) at 2-1 for trainer Robert Maybin and jockey Christopher Roy Mamdeen is the main challenge. Maybin has Finding Ways (POST 5) set up as the primary rival to the favorite, and at 2-1, there is some value relative to the even-money market leader. Mamdeen has been active in the jockey colony at ASD and a sustained effort from post 5 could challenge Prime Suspect (POST 4) through the stretch.

Secondary Choices

Bati King (POST 7) at 4-1 for trainer Wendy Anderson and jockey Tyrone Nelson draws the outside in a seven-horse field at 1320 feet — a clear disadvantage. However, Anderson has been placing horses effectively throughout this meet, and if Bati King (POST 7) has enough early foot to avoid a wide first-turn trip, the horse remains competitive at 4-1.

Preachers Secret (POST 1) at 6-1 for trainer Jason Homer and jockey R. Cumberbatch gets the best post position in the race. At 6-1 with the rail draw in a sprint, Preachers Secret (POST 1) is a genuine pace factor and a potential upset candidate if the even-money favorite encounters any trip trouble. Homer has been active with competitive horses throughout this meet, and Cumberbatch has been among the busiest pilots on the card today.

Longshots

After The Game (POST 6) at 12-1 for trainer Robert J. Haar and jockey Antonio Whitehall is a notable overlay candidate. Whitehall on a 12-1 shot in the final race of the card is worth a second look — his record at ASD means any horse he pilots has an elevated chance. Haar's barn is less prominent at ASD, but the jockey connection creates a mild alert for exotic bettors.

Ready For Anything (POST 3) at 20-1 for trainer Keith Pederson and jockey Kerron Khelawan has a workable inside draw but the 20-1 price suggests significant ability concerns at this level.

Steal Your Soul (POST 2) at 40-1 for trainer Maria Stanford and jockey Larry Munoz is a substantial throwout in win wagering. Pass entirely except as a deep trifecta inclusion for bettors seeking a big price.

Betting Strategy

Prime Suspect (POST 4) will be unplayable at 1-1 or lower in win. The value play in this finale is Preachers Secret (POST 1) at 6-1 with the rail draw — use this horse aggressively in exactas over Finding Ways (POST 5) and Bati King (POST 7). Key Prime Suspect (POST 4) on top over Preachers Secret (POST 1) and Finding Ways (POST 5) for the most likely exacta combination. Trifecta focus: Prime Suspect (POST 4) on top, Preachers Secret (POST 1) and Finding Ways (POST 5) in second, Bati King (POST 7) and After The Game (POST 6) in third for a competitive price.

Selections

Win: Prime Suspect (POST 4) Place: Preachers Secret (POST 1) Show: Finding Ways (POST 5)

Jockey Notes and Insights

Antonio Whitehall is unquestionably the rider to follow at today's card, with mounts in Races 1 through 7 across the full card. On a tight oval like ASD where experience and track knowledge are disproportionately valuable, a rider with Whitehall's meet-long presence is a consistent edge. His bookings on Rugged Rooster (POST 3) in Race 1, Charlie's Prize (POST 6) in Race 2, Maximum Uproar (POST 4) in Race 3, J L Copper (POST 6) in Race 4, Valley Victory (POST 4) in Race 5, Free Maker (POST 3) in Race 6, and After The Game (POST 6) in Race 7 constitute a full-card presence that serious bettors must account for.

Neville Stephenson is another veteran presence at ASD with mounts in multiple races today. His booking on Borderland (POST 2) in Race 1 for the Gourneau barn is notable, as is Grand Slam Duke (POST 2) in the feature and Rocky Top Mischief (POST 5) in Race 4. Stephenson's experience at this oval translates to sound tactical decisions.

Rachaad Knights appears in multiple races and has been developing into a capable presence at ASD this meet. His bookings on Canadian Lites (POST 5) in Race 2 and Call The Cavalry (POST 6) in Race 5 are worth tracking.

Dario Dalrymple has been active throughout the Gourneau barn's operations, riding Mischievous Intent (POST 4) in Race 4, My Wife Is Right (POST 2) in Race 5, and Sam's Promise (POST 6) in Race 6. The close Gourneau-Dalrymple partnership is a consistent positive signal.

R. Cumberbatch rides multiple horses today and is particularly notable on Time Machine (POST 5) in Race 5 and Cherokee Sunrise (POST 8) in Race 6. In the card closer, Cumberbatch takes Preachers Secret (POST 1) from the rail, which is among his best opportunities of the day.

Sven Balroop has two key bookings — Charming Charlie (POST 1) in Race 6 and Prime Suspect (POST 4) in Race 7 — on two of the day's morning line favorites. Both represent the best horses in their respective races and Balroop will be expected to perform in win-or-nothing situations.

Rashawn Brewster and Devante Prescod round out the colony with multiple mounts. Both are journeyman-level riders who can be effective on the right horse but are more often used as fill-in jockeys on longer-priced runners at this level.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Jerry Gourneau is today's dominant trainer story. With four horses entered across the card — Borderland (POST 2) in Race 1, American Witt (POST 1) in Race 2, Mischievous Intent (POST 4) in Race 4, My Wife Is Right (POST 2) in Race 5, Charming Charlie (POST 1) and Sam's Promise (POST 6) in Race 6 — Gourneau commands significant attention. His barn typically shows well at ASD and the dual entries in Race 6 in particular demonstrate that Gourneau is confident in the condition of multiple runners. ASD bettors who follow Gourneau's barn tend to show a healthy long-term profit, and today's large stable presence suggests the trainer is in form.

Michael Nault has a dual entry in the feature (Race 3) with Today's Agenda (POST 1) and Circle The Bird (POST 9). Having two horses in a $50,000 stakes race is a strong statement of confidence from the barn, and the question of which horse Nault views as the preferred runner is a legitimate angle. The rail draw for Today's Agenda (POST 1) versus the outside draw for Circle The Bird (POST 9) at even money creates one of the most interesting handicapping puzzles on the card.

Jason Homer sends out Rolling On (POST 3) in Race 5, Rocky Top Mischief (POST 5) in Race 4, and Preachers Secret (POST 1) in Race 7, giving the trainer three chances across the mid-to-late card. Homer has been active at ASD this meet and his runners have shown competitive form throughout. Preachers Secret (POST 1) with the rail in the finale is particularly appealing.

Tom Gardipy Jr fields three horses in Race 6 — Rick's Dancer (POST 2), Fast Traffic (POST 5), and Poderoso Equs (POST 7) — at morning line odds of 30-1, 15-1, and 30-1 respectively. This type of multiple entry at low odds suggests the trainer is fishing for a spot at the $3,000 claiming level rather than presenting a single focused runner. Bettors should approach all three Gardipy entries in Race 6 with skepticism.

Tiffany Husbands has two entries — Run Matteo Run (POST 5) in Race 1 and Ifurnotearlyurlate (POST 3) in Race 2 — with her barn showing enough activity to suggest the horses are in training-sharp condition.

Wendy Anderson has runners in multiple races including Born To Succeed (POST 6) in the feature, Soaringforthesun (POST 7) in Race 5, and Bati King (POST 7) in the finale. Anderson has been a consistent presence at ASD and her horses tend to run competitively even when not favored.

Terry Neubuhr trains Karanthos (POST 1) in Race 4 and Poshdaddy (POST 7) in the feature — both at significant morning line prices — suggesting a barn that is placing horses where they can develop rather than targeting win races on this card.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The strongest single value play on today's entire card is Today's Agenda (POST 1) in Race 3 at 5-1 morning line. This horse gets the prime rail draw in a nine-horse stakes sprint from the same barn as the even-money favorite, while the favorite draws the worst possible post. The combination of inside post, capable jockey in Matthew Bennett, the Nault barn's evident confidence in both runners, and the inflated odds on the barn mate creates a rare overlay situation in a stakes race. A win bet on Today's Agenda (POST 1) at 5-1 represents the best individual value on the card.

The second-best value play is My Wife Is Right (POST 2) at 7-1 in Race 5 from the Gourneau barn with an inside draw. Gourneau's horses typically run well at ASD, and 7-1 with a favorable post and the barn's current form is a legitimate overlay against the 2-1 co-favorites.

For multi-race wagering, the Pick 4 spanning Races 4 through 7 offers the best opportunity to pyramid value. Structure the Pick 4 as: Race 4 — Mischievous Intent (POST 4) and J L Copper (POST 6); Race 5 — Rolling On (POST 3) and Time Machine (POST 5) and My Wife Is Right (POST 2); Race 6 — Charming Charlie (POST 1) and Free Maker (POST 3) and Sam's Promise (POST 6); Race 7 — Prime Suspect (POST 4) and Preachers Secret (POST 1). This structure covers the key contenders and value runners through the back half of the card.

For the feature in Race 3, the best exacta play is Today's Agenda (POST 1) over Maximum Uproar (POST 4) and C J's Mayzee (POST 3), leveraging the 5-1 and 6-1 prices against each other. If Today's Agenda (POST 1) wins at 5-1, the exacta payouts with 4-1 and 6-1 runners underneath should return meaningful value.

In Race 6 — the full ten-horse field of $3,000 claimers — the trifecta is the play. The Gourneau double-entry at 2-1 each gives the barn an outsized presence, but Free Maker (POST 3) with Whitehall at 5-1 is the key upset horse in the mid-part of the exotic ticket. A trifecta using Charming Charlie (POST 1) and Free Maker (POST 3) on top, cycling through Sam's Promise (POST 6), Gallant Oak (POST 9), and Cherokee Sunrise (POST 8) in second and third positions offers a legitimate shot at a multi-hundred-dollar return in a wide-open lower-claiming field.

The card closer in Race 7 offers the best low-risk exacta value of the day: Preachers Secret (POST 1) at 6-1 with the rail draw over the 1-1 favorite Prime Suspect (POST 4) as a win-on-top reverse exacta. If the even-money shot wins as expected, you earn a modest return; but if Preachers Secret (POST 1) gets loose on the rail and steals the race, the exacta pays significantly better than any other win bet available in the race.

Overall card approach: target Today's Agenda (POST 1) in Race 3 as the value win bet of the day, anchor the Gourneau barn's runners in exactas throughout, use Antonio Whitehall's mounts as positive modifiers in trifecta construction, and build a Pick 4 through Races 4-7 using the structures outlined above.

Before wagering, check the Latest Race Scratches, Changes, and Conditions post for any last-minute scratches or race changes.


Get more in-depth analysis for all races and enjoy many other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

Tags:

Comments

No comments yet. Why don’t you start the discussion?

Talkback