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The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
Every horse our AI Win Probability model rated, grouped by the chance we gave it, against how often that group actually won.
Where the two lines meet, the published percentage was exactly right.
Show the numbers
| Week | What we said | What happened |
|---|---|---|
| 3% | 3.0% | 3.6% |
| 7% | 7.4% | 8.4% |
| 12% | 12.4% | 13.7% |
| 18% | 18.1% | 20.7% |
| 26% | 26.0% | 30.0% |
| 39% | 39.2% | 43.7% |
Race Day Overview — Belmont Park, November 15, 2026
Saturday's card at Belmont Park features ten races spread across both the main dirt track and the Widener turf course, with post times beginning at 12:40 PM ET. The day's headline event already played out on Friday when Pink Venom (Ire) upended favored Brickyard Belle in the off-turf renewal of the Stewart Manor Stakes, a result that has turf connections monitoring today's course conditions closely heading into a card that includes three turf offerings. The Stewart Manor result is a reminder that European shippers can find their way to the winner's circle at this venue, and that turf conditions remain fluid heading into mid-November.
Today's card is a mix of maiden special weights, claiming events, and optional claiming allowances spanning distances from six furlongs to a full mile on turf. Total handle on a mid-November Saturday at Belmont typically runs in the moderate range, which creates value opportunities in the exotic pools, particularly in the later races where field sizes are larger. The Claiming Crown card running concurrently at Churchill Downs — where Kerness K won his 12th consecutive race in dominant fashion on Saturday — will compete for handle dollars, so Belmont pools may be thinner than usual, increasing the importance of identifying overlays before post time.
Trainer Oscar Barrera III has a notable presence on the card, saddling runners in Races 1, 2, and 3. Mark Casse, fresh off his Kennedy Road stakes presence at Woodbine with My Boy Prince and Victory Achieved, sends out Charlottesuniverse (POST 3) in Race 4 and Disco Star (POST 1) in Race 7. The Kantarmaci family — Mertkan and Ilkay — have horses scattered throughout the card, making their collective form worth tracking from the first post.
Weather and Track Conditions — November 15, 2026
November at Belmont Park can be unpredictable, and mid-month historically brings cold, blustery conditions to the Elmont, New York oval. The dirt main track figures to be listed as fast or good depending on overnight maintenance and any early morning precipitation in the New York metro area. The Widener turf course drew attention after yesterday's Stewart Manor was taken off the turf and run on the dirt, suggesting the course was either soft or yielding coming into the weekend. Track superintendents would have had overnight to assess whether conditions improved sufficiently for the surface to be restored to racing condition.
For bettors, the key question centers on the turf races scheduled in Races 4, 7, and 8. If the Widener course remains compromised, those fields could be redirected to the main track, which would substantially alter the complexion of each field. Watch the morning-line scratches and official track condition reports issued by Belmont management, particularly for the turf races, before committing to exotic tickets. The Stewart Manor being moved off turf yesterday is a strong indicator that the course has been under stress, and multiple days of soft or yielding ground create cumulative wear that management must weigh carefully.
If the turf does open, expect a surface that may play slightly toward closers on a potentially yielding-to-soft Widener course, as deep ground tends to compromise early pace fractions and favor horses with late kick. If the card moves entirely to dirt, inside post positions and early speed will gain prominence, as Belmont's main track tends to favor stalkers and closers who can get a clean trip from the rail side.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
Belmont Park's main dirt track at the standard configuration favors horses that can run in the clear without expending early energy, as the width of the stretch allows multiple horses to find room. In late-season conditions, when the rail tends to firm up and the middle of the track retains more moisture, a slight outside bias can develop. Historically, posts four through seven on the main track at Belmont have performed well in routes, while in sprints, the inside posts can be problematic if early speed stacks up and traffic develops in the first turn.
For the turf course, Belmont's Widener turf can develop significant inside rail wear by mid-November, particularly after a week of heavy use and soft conditions. If the course does open, horses drawn to the outside — posts six through nine — often benefit as jockeys avoid the compromised ground near the rail. In a soft-to-yielding scenario, ground-saving trips near the rail become less advantageous than under firm conditions, and closers with the ability to circle the field on the outside tend to perform better than their dry-ground counterparts.
For today's dirt sprints and routes, pay attention to early pace setups. Belmont's main track can be speed-favoring when the rail is fast, but the elongated stretch rewards horses with enough pace figures to sustain their runs. In the sprint races — particularly Race 6 at six and a half furlongs — horses breaking from outside posts who can secure a stalking position within the first three lengths will have a tactical advantage over wire-to-wire types who may be run off their feet by late closers.
RACE 1 — Post (12:40)/11:40/10:40/9:40 — 1540f | D | S | Md Sp Wt | BUM | Purse $100,000
Pace Analysis
A six-and-a-half-furlong maiden special weight on the dirt for state-bred horses draws a field of seven, and with two co-morning-line favorites at 2-1, the pace scenario is worth dissecting carefully. The key early pace question centers on whether Okay Annie (POST 5) or Into The Unknown (POST 7) prefer to stalk or press. If either of the favorites sends to the front, the other will likely lay just off the leader, creating a moderate pace scenario that sets up for a closer to pick up the pieces. All Bright (POST 3) and It'sgoodtobequeen (POST 4) have tactical enough trips to be part of the early pace discussion, and with seven fillies drawn, there is room for multiple speed horses to fan out and go.
Key Contenders
Okay Annie (POST 5), trained by David Duggan and ridden by Dylan Davis, draws the pivotal post in this maiden sprint and figures as the pace control horse if she chooses to go to the front. Duggan has shown a solid touch with young maiden fillies in the New York circuit, and Davis has been riding with confidence through the fall meet. At 2-1 on the morning line, Okay Annie represents fair value if she can secure a clean trip and avoid a pace meltdown.
Into The Unknown (POST 7), co-favored at 2-1 from the outside post for trainer Rachel Sells and jockey Christopher Elliott, is an interesting counterpart to Okay Annie. Elliott has ridden well at the Belmont fall meet, and the outside post in a sprint gives this filly the option to either stalk behind the speed or angle out wide to the second path and use her run in the stretch. Sells has been patient with her maiden stock, and handicappers pointing to Into The Unknown suggest her recent work tab may point to a sharp effort.
Secondary Choices
It'sgoodtobequeen (POST 4), trained by Rob Atras and ridden by Kendrick Carmouche, is the third choice at 4-1 and merits serious consideration. Atras has a strong conversion rate with his maiden charges in New York state-bred company, and Carmouche is one of the savvier tacticians on the Belmont circuit. The four-hole gives this filly a ground-saving trip opportunity, and if she can track the early speed from the inside, she is well-positioned for a late run. At 4-1, the morning line represents mild overlay potential if the two favorites absorb each other's energy.
All Bright (POST 3), also trained by Oscar Barrera III with Edgard Zayas aboard at 6-1, runs for the same barn as Seize The Storm (POST 1). Barrera splitting entries here suggests he has two live horses, and Zayas is one of the more underrated riders on the New York circuit. All Bright's inside draw could be a liability if speed piles up early, but Zayas knows how to maneuver for position and find a clean path.
Longshots
Hanna's Hideaway (POST 6), trained by Lisa Bartkowski and ridden by JJ Castellano at 8-1, is the most intriguing longshot on the board. Castellano is one of the top riders in the country, and his accepting the mount on an 8-1 morning-line shot in the first race of the day is worth noting. Bartkowski does not win at a high strike rate, but she tends to have her horses fit when she runs them, and with Castellano in the irons, this filly gets a pilot who can find whatever trip is available.
Funny Gal (POST 2) at 12-1 for trainer Patrick Quick and jockey Pedro Pena is a deep longshot who could benefit if the pace collapses. Seize The Storm (POST 1) at 30-1 for Oscar Barrera and Rocco Bowen rounds out the field and appears to be the second Barrera string in a two-entry barn situation.
Selections
Win: Into The Unknown (POST 7) Place: Okay Annie (POST 5) Show: It'sgoodtobequeen (POST 4)
Betting Strategy: Use Into The Unknown (POST 7) and Okay Annie (POST 5) on top in the exacta both ways, with It'sgoodtobequeen (POST 4) underneath. Consider a small trifecta box with Into The Unknown (POST 7), Okay Annie (POST 5), and It'sgoodtobequeen (POST 4), with Hanna's Hideaway (POST 6) as a low-cost fourth key in multi-race wagers.
RACE 2 — Post (1:10)/12:10/11:10/10:10 — 1430f | D | C | Clm 25000 | BUN | Purse $58,000
Pace Analysis
A six-furlong claiming sprint for $25,000 non-winners of two races draws seven runners, and the early pace picture looks competitive. Ancient World (POST 1) from the inside draws the rail and could press or stalk. Pair Of Socks (POST 3) is the morning-line favorite at 2-1 and likely runs in the first flight. Burninhunkoflove (POST 7), trained by Orlando Noda and ridden by Christopher Elliott, figures to be forwardly placed from the outside, setting up what could be a moderate-to-honest pace scenario that may test late runners.
Key Contenders
Pair Of Socks (POST 3), trained by Linda Rice and ridden by Jose Lezcano, tops the morning line at 2-1 and enters as the class of this field. Rice is one of the most respected conditioners at the New York circuit, with a sharp eye for placing horses in spots where they can win. Lezcano is a proven closer and stalker who can rate a horse into a perfect spot, particularly around one turn. Pair Of Socks draws the three-hole and figures to find a clean stalking position with a clear look at the stretch. Rice's horses are always properly conditioned, and in a claiming sprint with modest pace, Pair Of Socks represents solid value at the morning-line price.
Ancient World (POST 1), trained by Steven Schauer and ridden by Rocco Bowen at 3-1, presses from the inside rail and could get a ground-saving trip if he can find the front without being pressed. The rail in a one-turn sprint at Belmont can be both an advantage and a liability — a gift if the horse gets clear, a problem if traffic develops out of the gate. Schauer has been modestly active, and Ancient World at 3-1 appears fairly priced.
Secondary Choices
Trust Issues (POST 4), trained by Mertkan Kantarmaci and ridden by Samuel Marin at 4-1, represents the Kantarmaci operation which has runners throughout the card. Marin has been a reliable journeyman at Belmont, and with Kantarmaci placing Trust Issues in an achievable spot, this horse merits attention as a tactical selection. The four-post gives a one-turn trip from a neutral position.
Burninhunkoflove (POST 7), trained by Orlando Noda and ridden by Christopher Elliott at 4-1, is a co-third choice and cannot be dismissed. Elliott has been riding quality horses on the Belmont card, and Noda occasionally produces sharp efforts from the outside of claiming fields. At 4-1, this runner represents fair value as an exacta underneath or on top.
Longshots
Princip (POST 2), trained by Mertkan Kantarmaci and ridden by JJ Castellano at 6-1, is the second Kantarmaci entry in this race alongside Trust Issues (POST 4). The fact that Kantarmaci has two in here — with Castellano choosing Princip — suggests the barn may favor this one, as a trainer's jockey preference often signals the likelier runner when a barn splits entries.
Big Hat Willie (POST 6) at 6-1 for trainer Lolita Shivmangal and jockey Pedro Pena adds a deep price angle. Riyadh Moon (POST 5) at 12-1 for Oscar Barrera and Edgard Zayas is likely the longest realistic shot and needs a pace meltdown to factor.
Selections
Win: Pair Of Socks (POST 3) Place: Princip (POST 2) Show: Trust Issues (POST 4)
Betting Strategy: Jockey preference in the Kantarmaci barn points toward Princip (POST 2) with Castellano, making the exacta with Pair Of Socks (POST 3) on top of Princip (POST 2) an attractive wager. Consider Burninhunkoflove (POST 7) as a saver in exactas. The trifecta key with Pair Of Socks (POST 3) on top, Princip (POST 2) and Ancient World (POST 1) for second, and Trust Issues (POST 4) and Burninhunkoflove (POST 7) for third is a reasonable structure at modest cost.
RACE 3 — Post (1:40)/12:40/11:40/10:40 — 1760f | D | MO | Moc 75000 | AON | Purse $80,000
Pace Analysis
A mile maiden optional claiming event at $75,000 for horses that have never won draws seven runners. With two 2-1 co-favorites in The Gabe Digger (POST 4) and Toneacity (POST 7), the pace will likely be dictated by the supporting cast. This is a route on the dirt that typically rewards horses who can secure a good stalking position within two lengths of the leader turning for home. Papa Vegas (POST 5) and Nodin (POST 1) could be part of the early flow, but the pace figures to be relatively honest without an obvious lone speed horse in the field.
Key Contenders
The Gabe Digger (POST 4), trained by John Kirby and ridden by F. Pennington at 2-1, occupies the pivot post and draws well for a route at a mile. Kirby does not run a large stable, but his horses tend to be fit when they appear, and a 2-1 morning-line tag in this company suggests the barn has confidence. The question with Pennington is whether this jockey can deliver a timely trip in a competitive field.
Toneacity (POST 7), trained by Horacio De Paz and ridden by Kendrick Carmouche at 2-1, draws the outside post but benefits from one of the best riders in the race. Carmouche is an elite tactician who can sit comfortably at the back of a small field and angle out for a wide run when it matters. De Paz has been showing improving form with his charges, and Toneacity's outside draw in a seven-horse route is manageable with Carmouche in control.
Secondary Choices
Diamond Juan (POST 2), trained by Jose Jimenez and ridden by Pedro Pena at 6-1, draws the inside rail in a route and could save significant ground if Pena keeps him patient early. Jimenez is a quieter presence in the Belmont condition book but has placed runners effectively in maiden optional claiming company. At 6-1, Diamond Juan represents clear overlay potential in exotics if the two favorites underperform.
Tan Man (POST 6), trained by Rudy Rodriguez and ridden by Samuel Marin at 6-1, is another horse worth following given Rodriguez's strong Belmont record. Rodriguez has consistently found winners at this level, and Marin is a competent rider capable of a solid stalking performance.
Longshots
Papa Vegas (POST 5), trained by Antonio Arriaga and ridden by Rocco Bowen at 8-1, is a price worth including in multi-race wagers. Nodin (POST 1), trained by Oscar Barrera and ridden by Dalila Rivera at 8-1, is part of Barrera's string and gets a first-turn advantage from the rail if pace develops. Bet Bold (POST 3), trained by Oscar Barrera and ridden by Edgard Zayas at 10-1, is the second Barrera entry and the longer price of the two in a barn that may favor Nodin (POST 1) with the inside draw. Zayas on Bet Bold (POST 3) at double-digit odds is a mild exotics play if pace falls apart.
Selections
Win: Toneacity (POST 7) Place: The Gabe Digger (POST 4) Show: Diamond Juan (POST 2)
Betting Strategy: Carmouche's riding ability gives Toneacity (POST 7) an edge in a tactical route, and the outside draw should not be a concern over a mile on the Belmont main track. Use Toneacity (POST 7) over The Gabe Digger (POST 4) and Diamond Juan (POST 2) in exactas. A trifecta singling Toneacity (POST 7) on top with The Gabe Digger (POST 4), Diamond Juan (POST 2), and Tan Man (POST 6) in second and third positions covers the realistic outcomes at reasonable cost.
RACE 4 — Post (2:10)/1:10/12:10/11:10 — 1760f | T | AO | OClm 45000n2x | BUM | Purse $108,000
Pace Analysis
This mile turf optional claiming event for $45,000, restricted to non-winners of two races, is conditional on the Widener turf course being deemed raceable. If the course does not open — a significant possibility given yesterday's Stewart Manor being moved to dirt — the entire field would be redirected to the main track, which would substantially change the complexion of the race. Assuming the turf opens, pace in a mile turf field tends to be moderate, with the early fractions typically honest enough to favor tactical closers on a potentially yielding surface. With seven horses drawn, pace is unlikely to be blazing, and position inside the final quarter mile will be decisive.
Key Contenders
Charlottesuniverse (POST 3), trained by Mark Casse and ridden by JJ Castellano at 2-1, is the top selection based on the connections alone. Casse is one of the premier turf trainers in North America, with an exceptional record on the Widener course, and Castellano is a multiple Eclipse Award winner who excels in tactical mile turf races. The three-post provides a ground-saving position in a field of seven, and Casse's horses are typically well-prepared for turf routes. This is the kind of trainer-jockey combination that justifies favoritism in a turf optional claiming field.
All Of It (POST 4), trained by Miguel Clement and ridden by Flavien Prat at 2-1, matches Charlottesuniverse (POST 3) on the morning line and presents a formidable challenge. Clement has an outstanding record on the turf at Belmont, and Prat is arguably the most skilled pure turf rider currently based in North America. The four-post draws well for a one-mile turf race, giving Prat the option to sit just off the early pace and angle for a clear run. This is a genuine 50/50 proposition with Charlottesuniverse (POST 3) at the top of the field.
Secondary Choices
Cosmic Candy Girl (POST 2), trained by James Ryerson and ridden by Dylan Davis at 4-1, is worth closer examination. Ryerson maintains a solid operation, and Davis has been effective on the turf at Belmont this autumn. The two-hole provides a ground-saving trip from just off the rail, and if either of the two favorites encounters traffic on the far turn, Cosmic Candy Girl (POST 2) could be a dangerous $4 price to swoop in.
Boomington (POST 7), trained by George Weaver and ridden by Jose Lezcano at 5-1, draws the outside post but benefits from a trainer who excels with turf horses. Weaver has a strong conversion rate on the Widener course and places his horses carefully in the condition book. Lezcano from the seven-hole can angle back for a stalking trip and emerge with a run in the stretch if the pace is honest.
Longshots
Grace And Grit (POST 6), trained by Amelia Green and ridden by Samuel Marin at 8-1, could benefit from a soft turf scenario, as her connections may have specifically pointed her at a yielding or soft course. Hello Beauty (POST 5), trained by Patrick Quick and ridden by Rocco Bowen at 20-1, appears outclassed at double-digit morning-line odds. My First Dinah (POST 1), trained by Eduardo Jones and ridden by Christopher Elliott at 15-1, would need a perfect ground-saving trip to factor.
Selections
Win: All Of It (POST 4) Place: Charlottesuniverse (POST 3) Show: Boomington (POST 7)
Betting Strategy: This race comes down to the Prat-on-Clement combination versus the Castellano-on-Casse combination, and slight preference goes to All Of It (POST 4) based on Prat's exceptional turf riding in 2026. Use both co-favorites on top in exactas and reverse them. The best exotic play is a trifecta with All Of It (POST 4) and Charlottesuniverse (POST 3) on top, Boomington (POST 7) and Cosmic Candy Girl (POST 2) in second, and all remaining for third. If the race moves to dirt, revisit the field entirely with post position as a primary filter.
RACE 5 — Post (2:41)/1:41/12:41/11:41 — 1760f | D | C | Clm 12500 | BUN | Purse $35,000
Pace Analysis
A claiming route at the $12,500 level for non-winners brings together nine runners and represents the most modest class level on the card. With nine horses going a mile on the dirt, there is likely to be early jostling for position in the first turn, and the pace figures to be honest or even contested. Jackson Heights (POST 9), the 2-1 morning-line favorite for Ilkay Kantarmaci and Flavien Prat, figures to be the best horse but draws the extreme outside post, which could cost him ground through the first turn. Early speed in a nine-horse field can be problematic, and the class and connections of Jackson Heights (POST 9) must be weighed against the post position penalty.
Key Contenders
Jackson Heights (POST 9), trained by Ilkay Kantarmaci and ridden by Flavien Prat at 2-1, is the clear class of the field and brings the best jockey available on the card despite the outside draw. Prat has demonstrated throughout 2026 that he can overcome post position disadvantages with patient, tactical rides, and at the $12,500 claiming level, the class drop or competitive positioning of Jackson Heights (POST 9) likely outweighs the post position concern. Ilkay Kantarmaci, alongside brother Mertkan, has been one of the more active claiming operations at Belmont this fall, and the choice to put Prat on this particular runner in a $12,500 claiming route is a significant angle.
Nantz (POST 1), trained by Mertkan Kantarmaci and ridden by Samuel Marin at 4-1, benefits from the inside rail draw in a nine-horse route and could be a dangerous play if pace develops to the outside. The Kantarmaci brothers having entries in both the one-hole and nine-hole of this race — with Prat on the nine and Marin on the one — creates a barn split scenario worth analyzing. Marin on the one-hole Nantz (POST 1) could be the value play if Prat is simply drawing the assignment due to Ilkay's barn commitment.
Secondary Choices
Interlock Empire (POST 6), trained by Emron Ibrahim and ridden by Rocco Bowen at 6-1, draws a neutral post and may be an underrated selection. At 6-1, the morning line suggests a horse capable of troubling the favorites if pace develops and traffic opens. Petrolo (POST 5), trained by Adrianne Devaux and ridden by Luis Raul Rivera Jr. at 6-1, is another mid-price candidate that could benefit from a contested pace scenario.
Longshots
Fever Night (POST 3), trained by Fernando Abreu and ridden by Christopher Elliott at 8-1, is worth a small inclusion in exotics given Elliott's presence in the irons. Late Call (POST 2), trained by Ilkay Kantarmaci and ridden by Antonio Fresu at 8-1, represents a third Kantarmaci runner in this race — this time from the second post. Three Kantarmaci horses in one race spanning both trainers' books is unusual and suggests the barn has multiple horses at this level ready to run. Ice Time (POST 8) at 20-1 for Norman Follett and Pedro Pena and Laughing Boy (POST 7) at 30-1 for Michael Simmonds and Katie Davis are longshots that need significant pace collapses to contend. Go Irish (POST 4) at 12-1 for Mertkan Kantarmaci and Castellano provides a fourth Kantarmaci family runner; Castellano taking the fourth Kantarmaci runner rather than the morning-line favorite is itself a note worth filing.
Selections
Win: Jackson Heights (POST 9) Place: Nantz (POST 1) Show: Interlock Empire (POST 6)
Betting Strategy: Despite the outside post, Jackson Heights (POST 9) with Prat is the play based on class and rider quality. Use Jackson Heights (POST 9) over Nantz (POST 1), Interlock Empire (POST 6), and Petrolo (POST 5) in the exacta. Consider a saver with Nantz (POST 1) on top of Jackson Heights (POST 9) in case the rail position becomes a decisive factor. The trifecta with Jackson Heights (POST 9) on top, Nantz (POST 1) and Interlock Empire (POST 6) second, and Petrolo (POST 5) and Fever Night (POST 3) third is a reasonable low-cost structure.
RACE 6 — Post (3:12)/2:12/1:12/12:12 — 1540f | D | C | Clm 50000 | BUN | Purse $75,000
Pace Analysis
A six-and-a-half-furlong claiming sprint at $50,000 for non-winners draws seven horses and shapes up as a highly competitive affair. Five horses are listed at 4-1 on the morning line — Breslau (POST 1), Inexorable (POST 2), Normandy Coast (POST 4), Shoot The Nickel (POST 5), and Twenty Four Mamba (POST 7) — making this race an excellent candidate for significant overlay prices in the exotic pools. With five horses at the same price, early pace will be crucial in determining the outcome, and the horse that can find the front uncontested or secure the ideal stalking position will have a major advantage.
Key Contenders
Inexorable (POST 2), trained by Michael Maker and ridden by Flavien Prat at 4-1, stands out in this competitive field based on the trainer-jockey combination alone. Maker is one of the elite trainers in North America with an exceptional record in sprint claiming events, and Prat's presence in the irons upgrades any horse he rides. The two-post gives Inexorable (POST 2) a ground-saving position in a sprint, and from just off the rail, Prat can secure a clean trip and angle out for a run in the stretch. This is the kind of race where connections tell the story, and Maker-Prat is the most compelling combination in the field.
Shoot The Nickel (POST 5), trained by Linda Rice and ridden by Jose Lezcano at 4-1, draws the five-hole in a seven-horse sprint and brings another elite trainer-jockey combination. Rice at the $50,000 claiming level in a sprint is a formidable combination, and Lezcano's pace awareness is a major asset. If Inexorable (POST 2) handles the inside position and sets or stalks the pace, Shoot The Nickel (POST 5) could be the logical winner from the outside of the optimal stalking position.
Secondary Choices
Twenty Four Mamba (POST 7), trained by Rob Atras and ridden by Christopher Elliott at 4-1, draws the outside post and brings a trainer who has shown solid form at Belmont this fall. Elliott has been riding with renewed confidence, and from post seven in a sprint, the outside position could be an asset if the inside posts get squeezed early. Normandy Coast (POST 4), trained by Robert Falcone Jr. and ridden by Kendrick Carmouche at 4-1, draws the pivot post with one of the smarter tactical riders in the race. Falcone has a workmanlike operation that places horses well in sprint claiming events, and Carmouche can find whatever trip is available.
Breslau (POST 1), trained by Michael Miceli and ridden by Dylan Davis at 4-1, draws the inside rail in a sprint, which is a mixed blessing. If Breslau (POST 1) can break cleanly and secure the rail, the ground-saving trip could be decisive. Davis has the ability to work with rail posts effectively, and Miceli has competitive horses at this level.
Longshots
Castle Chaos (POST 3), trained by Mertkan Kantarmaci and ridden by Samuel Marin at 6-1, represents the Kantarmaci claiming operation again and is the most likely price play in the race. Barb (POST 6), trained by Adrianne Devaux and ridden by Antonio Fresu at 6-1, is a lightly raced type that could surprise at a price if pace collapses in the stretch. Devaux has quietly produced some sharp claiming efforts this fall.
Selections
Win: Inexorable (POST 2) Place: Shoot The Nickel (POST 5) Show: Twenty Four Mamba (POST 7)
Betting Strategy: This race is a wagering goldmine given the five co-favorites at 4-1. If two or three of the top choices underperform, the exotic payoffs will be substantial. Use Inexorable (POST 2) on top of Shoot The Nickel (POST 5) and Twenty Four Mamba (POST 7) in exactas, and add Normandy Coast (POST 4) as a third saver. A trifecta key with Inexorable (POST 2) on top, all five 4-1 horses in second, and Castle Chaos (POST 3) and Barb (POST 6) in third positions is a creative structure that covers potential overlay outcomes in the third leg of the trifecta at potentially enhanced payoffs.
RACE 7 — Post (3:43)/2:43/1:43/12:43 — 1320f | t | AO | OClm 45000n2x | BUM | Purse $108,000
Pace Analysis
A six-furlong turf sprint — again conditional on the Widener course being open — draws nine runners in an optional claiming field at $45,000 for non-winners of two races. Six-furlong turf sprints at Belmont favor horses with tactical speed who can secure a prominent position in the first flight without burning too much energy. With nine horses in the field, the pace will be honest and potentially contested, as turf sprints at this distance tend to draw multiple forwardly placed horses. If the course is yielding, the pace could get messy, and horses with the ability to rate and respond to late urging will be at a premium. If the race moves to the main dirt track due to turf course conditions, the complexion shifts entirely.
Key Contenders
Fairy Godmother (POST 2), trained by Raymond Handal and ridden by Flavien Prat at 2-1, tops the morning line and draws the two-hole in a turf sprint — an excellent tactical position. Prat's presence on the morning-line favorite in a turf sprint at this level is a strong signal, and the inside draw allows Prat to establish position early without expending unnecessary energy. Handal's horses tend to be ready when they appear, and Fairy Godmother (POST 2) with Prat from the two-post represents a legitimate 2-1 favorite.
Brokealltherules (POST 9), trained by Richard Dutrow and ridden by Antonio Fresu at 3-1, is the second choice and brings one of the more storied trainers in North American racing back into the mix. Dutrow's presence at Belmont with a prominent runner on the morning line is always worth noting, and at 3-1 from the outside post, Brokealltherules (POST 9) could be a solid each-way proposition if the turf course plays toward closers who can swing wide.
Secondary Choices
Disco Star (POST 1), trained by Mark Casse and ridden by Edgard Zayas at 6-1, draws the inside rail in a turf sprint, which can be a significant advantage on a firm course. Casse's turf record speaks for itself, and while Zayas is a notch below Prat or Castellano, he is fully capable of a winning ride from the rail position. At 6-1, Disco Star (POST 1) represents value if the turf course is playing in favor of inside posts.
Sweet Montreal (POST 8), trained by James Ryerson and ridden by Christopher Elliott at 6-1, draws next to the outside but brings a trainer who places horses well in optional claiming company. Elliott has been riding with purpose on the fall card, and Sweet Montreal (POST 8) at 6-1 could be an underestimated price in this field.
Longshots
She's Country (POST 3), trained by George Weaver and ridden by Dylan Davis at 8-1, benefits from one of the top turf trainers on the card, and at 8-1, represents genuine overlay potential. Weaver's turf win percentage at Belmont has been consistently strong, and Davis is a capable rider in sprint turf events. Lil' Regard (POST 4), trained by Ilkay Kantarmaci and ridden by JJ Castellano at 8-1, is another price worth noting, as Castellano on an 8-1 morning-line shot is always worth a second look regardless of the morning-line positioning. Long Legged Queen (POST 5), trained by Joseph Lee and ridden by Vincent Cheminaud at 6-1, adds an international rider-horse combination that could be interesting if the turf is soft. Oklahoma Smoke (POST 6), trained by Jorge Abreu and ridden by Samuel Marin at 12-1, is a deep price from a sharp barn but needs everything to go right. Pinky Brier (POST 7) at 30-1 for Gustavo Rodriguez and Pedro Pena is a longshot that merits only the minimum inclusion in exotic tickets.
Selections
Win: Fairy Godmother (POST 2) Place: Brokealltherules (POST 9) Show: She's Country (POST 3)
Betting Strategy: Prat on Fairy Godmother (POST 2) from an inside post in a turf sprint is a strong wager. Use Fairy Godmother (POST 2) on top of Brokealltherules (POST 9) and Disco Star (POST 1) in exactas. The overlay play in this race is She's Country (POST 3) at 8-1 from a Weaver barn — include her in trifecta third legs. A trifecta key: Fairy Godmother (POST 2) on top, Brokealltherules (POST 9), Disco Star (POST 1), and Lil' Regard (POST 4) for second, She's Country (POST 3), Sweet Montreal (POST 8), and Long Legged Queen (POST 5) for third.
RACE 8 — Post (4:14)/3:14/2:14/1:14 — 1760f | T | M | Md 50000 | BUM | Purse $56,000
Pace Analysis
The finale is a mile maiden race on the turf at a $50,000 claiming tag, drawing ten runners — the largest field on the card. Maiden turf miles at Belmont in November with a ten-horse field create highly unpredictable pace scenarios, as the field will be fanning into two or three lanes through the first turn. With a large field on potentially soft going, the pace will likely be honest early as multiple horses try to establish position. Horses drawn in the middle of the field — posts four through seven — typically have the most tactical flexibility, as they can either press forward or settle into a comfortable stalking position without expending early energy. Late closers with strong finishes in prior routes will benefit if the pace is contested.
Key Contenders
Italianne (POST 3), trained by Thomas Morley and ridden by John Velazquez at 3-1, draws the three-hole and benefits from the best combination of post position and jockey in the race. Velazquez's turf record at Belmont is exceptional, and even at this maiden claiming level, his ability to find and execute the right trip is a substantial advantage. At 3-1, Italianne (POST 3) represents modest but fair value at the top of a ten-horse maiden field.
Suited Connectors (POST 4), trained by Ilkay Kantarmaci and ridden by Flavien Prat at 4-1, draws just outside Italianne (POST 3) and brings the top jockey on the card in another Kantarmaci runner. Prat on Suited Connectors (POST 4) at 4-1 in a ten-horse turf maiden field deserves serious consideration as a potential overlay. Kantarmaci has runners throughout this card, and Prat choosing Suited Connectors (POST 4) from the four-hole suggests the barn's confidence in this runner's turf ability.
Secondary Choices
Whatta Weekend (POST 2), trained by David Duggan and ridden by Dylan Davis at 4-1, draws the two-hole and represents a trainer who has shown the ability to develop maiden turf horses at Belmont. Davis has ridden with solid form throughout the card today and would welcome a ground-saving trip from the inside. At 4-1, Whatta Weekend (POST 2) is fairly priced as a secondary selection.
Two Clicks (POST 7), trained by Bruce Levine and ridden by JJ Castellano at 6-1, draws the seven-hole and benefits from one of the most experienced riders in the field. Levine's maiden turf horses have shown an improving trend, and Castellano from the seven-post in a ten-horse field can angle back and find a stalking position in the second flight. At 6-1, Two Clicks (POST 7) has overlay potential if the two favorites underperform.
Longshots
Catholic Edition (POST 10), trained by Michelle Giangiulio and ridden by Kendrick Carmouche at 10-1, is the most interesting price play in the finale. Carmouche on a double-digit morning-line shot in the last race of the day often signals a trainer who has a fresh horse ready to perform, and from post ten, Carmouche can angle out wide in the first turn and find a comfortable stalking position on the outside. Raynham Hall (POST 8), trained by Rudy Rodriguez and ridden by Antonio Fresu at 8-1, brings another active Belmont trainer in a price range worth including. Force Of Mischief (POST 9), trained by David Donk and ridden by Dalila Rivera at 8-1, is a lightly raced type from a knowledgeable barn. Addagirl Addie (POST 1) at 12-1 for Bruce Brown and Christopher Elliott gets the rail but needs a perfect pace setup. Gallipoli Girl (POST 6) at 30-1 for Rob Atras and Rocco Bowen is a deep longshot that needs everything to go right. Amicus Curiae (POST 5) at 15-1 for Bruce Levine and Luis Raul Rivera Jr. is the second Levine runner in this race, with Two Clicks (POST 7) drawing the preferred Castellano assignment from the same barn.
Selections
Win: Italianne (POST 3) Place: Suited Connectors (POST 4) Show: Two Clicks (POST 7)
Betting Strategy: Use Italianne (POST 3) on top of Suited Connectors (POST 4) and Two Clicks (POST 7) in exactas. A trifecta singling Italianne (POST 3) on top with Suited Connectors (POST 4), Whatta Weekend (POST 2), and Two Clicks (POST 7) in second, and Catholic Edition (POST 10), Raynham Hall (POST 8), and Force Of Mischief (POST 9) in third positions is a low-cost structure that covers the realistic outcomes. Catholic Edition (POST 10) at 10-1 with Carmouche in the irons is worth a small win bet as a price play.
Jockey Notes and Insights
Flavien Prat is the standout rider on today's Belmont card, with mounts in Races 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8. Prat has been the dominant force in North American turf racing through 2026, and his presence on All Of It (POST 4) in Race 4, Jackson Heights (POST 9) in Race 5, and Suited Connectors (POST 4) in Race 8 makes those horses automatically more formidable than their morning-line prices suggest. Prat's decision-making on the turf at Belmont is elite, and his ability to rate and time his runs has resulted in multiple graded stakes victories at this track in the past two seasons.
JJ Castellano maintains his perennial presence at the top of the Belmont standings and rides in Races 1 through 5 and Race 8. His mount on Charlottesuniverse (POST 3) in Race 4 is a marquee assignment, and the Casse-Castellano combination on a turf route is one of the most reliable in New York racing. Castellano's acceptance of Hanna's Hideaway (POST 6) at 8-1 in Race 1 and Princip (POST 2) in Race 2 — when higher-profile mounts are available — is worth noting as a trainer confidence signal.
Kendrick Carmouche continues to demonstrate the tactical intelligence that has made him one of the more respected riders at Belmont. His mounts on It'sgoodtobequeen (POST 4) in Race 1, Toneacity (POST 7) in Race 3, Normandy Coast (POST 4) in Race 6, and Catholic Edition (POST 10) in Race 8 show that multiple trainers trust him with significant horses throughout the card. Carmouche on a double-digit price in Race 8 is a classic closer play to watch.
Christopher Elliott has a full book of rides spread throughout the card — Races 1 through 7 — and has been riding with improving confidence at the fall Belmont meet. His mounts on Into The Unknown (POST 7) in Race 1 and Brokealltherules (POST 9) in Race 7 are the highest-profile assignments, and both deserve inclusion in multi-race wagers.
John Velazquez, riding only Italianne (POST 3) in Race 8, is a selective presence who commands attention whenever he accepts a mount at Belmont. The fact that Velazquez is appearing on a single mount — the morning-line favorite in the finale — speaks to the connections' belief in this horse's turf potential.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Oscar Barrera III has the most presence on today's card, with runners in Races 1, 2, and 3. In Race 1, Barrera splits his entry between Seize The Storm (POST 1) and All Bright (POST 3), with Zayas drawing the more prominent three-post assignment, suggesting All Bright (POST 3) is the barn's preferred runner in that race. In Race 2, Riyadh Moon (POST 5) at 12-1 appears to be the second string from the Barrera barn. In Race 3, Barrera again splits with Nodin (POST 1) and Bet Bold (POST 3). Barrera's barn has been active through the fall meet, and his horses tend to be properly conditioned for their distance and surface.
Mark Casse, fresh from his Kennedy Road stakes involvement at Woodbine, has Charlottesuniverse (POST 3) in Race 4 and Disco Star (POST 1) in Race 7. Casse's turf record is exceptional, and both horses in today's turf races are worth following closely. Casse's ability to manage horses across different tracks simultaneously — with runners at Woodbine and Belmont on consecutive days — reflects the depth of his operation.
The Kantarmaci family — Mertkan and Ilkay — dominate the claiming ranks of today's card. In Race 2, Mertkan has Princip (POST 2) and Trust Issues (POST 4). In Race 5, the brothers combine for Jackson Heights (POST 9), Nantz (POST 1), Late Call (POST 2), and Go Irish (POST 4) — four runners from one family in a single race. In Race 6, Mertkan's Castle Chaos (POST 3) adds a fifth Kantarmaci involvement. This level of activity in claiming races suggests both trainers have horses ready to fire, and their jockey choices — Prat on Jackson Heights (POST 9) and Castellano on Go Irish (POST 4) — provide important clues about which runners the operations favor.
Linda Rice saddles Pair Of Socks (POST 3) in Race 2 and Shoot The Nickel (POST 5) in Race 6, representing two of her stronger claiming prospects on the card. Rice's precision in placing horses at the right class level makes both runners solid win candidates.
Michael Maker, with only Inexorable (POST 2) in Race 6, makes a targeted appearance on the card. Maker's selective use of his horses at Belmont and his decision to put Prat in the irons on Inexorable (POST 2) suggests the barn is pointing this horse for a sharp effort.
Richard Dutrow, with Brokealltherules (POST 9) in Race 7, adds intrigue to the turf sprint. Dutrow's history with the New York circuit is well-documented, and his presence at Belmont with a 3-1 morning-line second choice deserves respect.
George Weaver runs She's Country (POST 3) in Race 7 and Boomington (POST 7) in Race 4, extending his consistent presence in the turf optional claiming ranks. Weaver's turf conversion rate at Belmont remains among the top in the New York circuit, and both horses offer value at their respective prices.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The card at Belmont on November 15 presents several compelling wagering structures, with the late Pick 4 and Pick 5 sequences offering the most attractive risk-reward profiles.
The late Pick 5 beginning in Race 4 (or Race 5 depending on the pool structure) is the primary multi-race wager to attack. If the Race 4 and Race 7 turf events run on turf, the ticket construction becomes more nuanced, as turf races with potential surface changes are natural eliminators of casual bettors' tickets, increasing the value for committed bettors willing to cover the possibilities. The recommended Pick 5 structure would open with All Of It (POST 4) and Charlottesuniverse (POST 3) in Race 4, use Jackson Heights (POST 9) as a single in Race 5 based on class and rider, then spread in Race 6 among Inexorable (POST 2), Shoot The Nickel (POST 5), and Twenty Four Mamba (POST 7), use Fairy Godmother (POST 2) with Brokealltherules (POST 9) as savers in Race 7, and open up with Italianne (POST 3), Suited Connectors (POST 4), and Two Clicks (POST 7) in the finale.
Race 6 is the standout value play on the entire card. Five co-favorites at 4-1 means the exotic payoffs will be substantial regardless of which horses finish in the top three. Any trifecta that connects in Race 6 will pay well simply because the pool will be fragmented across five equally popular choices. The recommended strategy is to use Inexorable (POST 2) on top based on the Maker-Prat combination, spread Shoot The Nickel (POST 5), Twenty Four Mamba (POST 7), and Normandy Coast (POST 4) for second, and use the two 6-1 horses Castle Chaos (POST 3) and Barb (POST 6) for third to maximize the potential trifecta payoff by landing a price horse in the third slot.
Race 8 presents a 10-horse maiden turf finale that is a natural exacta and trifecta target. The combination of Italianne (POST 3) with Velazquez and Suited Connectors (POST 4) with Prat should be the exacta backbone, but Catholic Edition (POST 10) at 10-1 with Carmouche is the best single-race value bet on the card. Carmouche accepting that double-digit mount in the last race of the day — with multiple higher-profile options available — deserves a serious win bet as a price play.
For daily double players, the Race 7 and Race 8 combination using Fairy Godmother (POST 2) with Brokealltherules (POST 9) on top of Italianne (POST 3) and Suited Connectors (POST 4) is a focused, low-cost double that could return strong value given the depth of the Race 7 field.
The key overlay of the entire card is She's Country (POST 3) at 8-1 in Race 7. George Weaver's turf conversion rate at Belmont combined with Dylan Davis in the irons makes this runner significantly underpriced at 8-1 in an optional claiming turf sprint. A win bet on She's Country (POST 3) paired with an exacta wheel using Fairy Godmother (POST 2) on top of She's Country (POST 3) is the single best value wager on the card.
One important caveat governs all wagering on this card: the status of the Widener turf course will determine whether Races 4, 7, and 8 are contested on their scheduled surfaces. Given that yesterday's Stewart Manor Stakes was moved off the turf, there is a meaningful possibility that one or more of today's turf races could be redirected to the main track. Bettors should monitor the track conditions report issued by Belmont management in the morning hours before committing to exotic structures in those races. If the turf does not open, revisit the fields in Races 4, 7, and 8 with post position and dirt form as the primary handicapping filters, as the entire complexion of those fields will change.
Before wagering, check the Latest Race Scratches, Changes, and Conditions post for any last-minute scratches or race changes.
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