Posted inAnalysis Reports

Charles Town Races – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the October 17, 2026 card

No CommentsPosted inAnalysis, Reports

TL;DR


Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

 

The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

 

Do our stated chances come true?

Every horse our AI Win Probability model rated, grouped by the chance we gave it, against how often that group actually won.

What we saidWhat happened
0%14%27%41%55%3%7%12%18%26%39%What we said — 3.1%What we said — 7.4%What we said — 12.5%What we said — 18.1%What we said — 25.9%What we said — 38.5%What we saidWhat happened — 3.4%What happened — 8.2%What happened — 13.7%What happened — 21.0%What happened — 30.3%What happened — 44.4%What happened

Where the two lines meet, the published percentage was exactly right.

Show the numbers
WeekWhat we saidWhat happened
3%3.1%3.4%
7%7.4%8.2%
12%12.5%13.7%
18%18.1%21.0%
26%25.9%30.3%
39%38.5%44.4%

Race Day Overview

Charles Town's Saturday, October 17, 2026 card is an eight-race program beginning at 7:00 p.m. Eastern. The card is composed entirely of dirt races, with distances ranging from 4 1/2 furlongs to seven furlongs. The featured purse is the $35,300 allowance in Race 7, while Race 1 offers a $32,900 maiden special weight. The official published race listings confirm the dirt surface, distances, conditions, purses, and wagering sequence for tonight's program.

The early sequence is particularly important because Races 1 through 5 include a short sprint maiden event, a seven-furlong allowance, another short sprint maiden claimer, a six-and-a-half-furlong claiming race, and a six-and-a-half-furlong maiden claimer. The late sequence begins with Race 6, a seven-furlong $5,000 claiming event, followed by a competitive allowance and a large-field claiming finale.

The published card shows no confirmed scratches in the available entries information. Morning-line prices should be treated as guideposts rather than fair odds, especially in the two maiden races and the two low-level claiming events where pace and trip can overwhelm apparent class differences.

The strongest early handicapping opportunities appear to be Smart Cry (POST 2) in Race 2 and Brother Moses (POST 5) in Race 1, although both are likely to receive substantial betting support. The most attractive potential value runners are Ifthedevildanced (POST 4) in Race 1, Can You See Me Now (POST 3) in Race 2, Miracle Lad (POST 6) in Race 3, Like Tyson (POST 7) in Race 4, and Oleg (POST 3) in Race 8.

Weather and Track Conditions

The available National Weather Service forecast calls for a cool, breezy evening in the Charles Town region, with temperatures falling through the 50s, northwest winds, and wind gusts that could approach 25 to 30 miles per hour. The forecast includes some chance of lingering showers during the broader weather system, although the most relevant evening forecast information shows a generally decreasing precipitation chance.

The official race listings identify the racing surface as dirt for all eight races. No verified same-day maintenance report or official fast-good-sealed designation was located. Accordingly, the handicapping assumes the listed dirt surface without assigning an unconfirmed track rating.

The combination of cool air and wind can produce a slightly tiring feel if the surface is damp, but a dry Charles Town sprint surface generally rewards horses that establish position before the first turn. Bettors should watch the first two races closely. If inside speed is holding, upgrade the rail and inner-post front-runners. If outside horses are circling effectively, place more emphasis on tactical runners drawn in Posts 4 through 7.

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

Charles Town's short races place a premium on immediate acceleration. In the 4 1/2-furlong events, there is little time to overcome a slow break, and early position should be weighted more heavily than late-running form. Posts 1 through 3 can be advantageous when the horse is quick enough to protect position, but a sluggish rail horse can become trapped or forced to check.

At six-and-a-half and seven furlongs, the post-position effect is less severe, although inside horses still benefit from saving ground. Tactical speed is preferable to a deep-closing style because Charles Town's compact configuration can make up ground difficult unless the leaders overdo the pace.

The most likely pace-favoring runners on the card include Goldeck (POST 1), Smart Cry (POST 2), They Called'em Bob (POST 1), Lord Of Cork (POST 4), Robbielikeshim (POST 5), Sesame Streek (POST 6), Masterwork (POST 2), Won Ton (POST 4), Armucess (POST 5), Powered By Love (POST 5), and Ray's Blue Wagon (POST 10).

RACE 1 — Post (7:00)/6:00/5:00/4:00 — 990f | D | S | Md Sp Wt | BUN | Purse $32,900

Pace Analysis

This 4 1/2-furlong maiden special weight should be run at a sharp pace. Goldeck (POST 1), Brother Moses (POST 5), and Ifthedevildanced (POST 4) have the most appealing tactical profiles. Thunder Pass (POST 2) could also show speed, but the inner draw may force an aggressive ride if the rider wants to avoid being outrun early.

Brother Moses (POST 5) appears capable of pressing or attending the pace without being committed to an all-out duel. That is a useful position in this short sprint. Goldeck (POST 1) should have every opportunity to save ground and secure a stalking trip, while Ifthedevildanced (POST 4) is positioned to benefit if the top two become involved early.

Key Contenders

Brother Moses (POST 5) is the clear morning-line favorite at even money and owns the most compelling combination of market support and tactical placement. The outside-middle post gives the rider room to establish position without being immediately crowded. The primary concern is value: at 1-1, the horse must win more often than the price implies.

Goldeck (POST 1) is the logical alternative. The rail is useful in a 4 1/2-furlong race if the horse breaks cleanly, and the listed morning line of 2-1 suggests the betting public views this runner as the main danger. The trip will be decisive. A clean break and a stalking position could make Goldeck difficult to pass.

Secondary Choices

Ifthedevildanced (POST 4) is the preferred secondary selection at 6-1. The post is favorable for a short sprint, and the horse should be close enough to capitalize if the favorites engage too early. This is the most appealing price among the principal contenders.

Magic On The Bay (POST 3) is listed at 5-1 and has a useful inside-middle post. The horse needs to show enough early foot to avoid being shuffled behind the rail runners, but a ground-saving trip could put Magic on the Bay into the exotics.

Longshots

Thunder Pass (POST 2) is listed at 15-1 and has some chance to improve if able to secure the lead or a pocket trip. The concern is that the horse may be pressured from both sides before establishing position.

Feeling Enchanted (POST 6) is the 20-1 outsider. The outside post offers a clear run, but the horse must overcome the apparent class and form gap quickly. This is a fringe superfecta inclusion rather than a win candidate.

Selections

Win: Brother Moses (POST 5)

Place: Ifthedevildanced (POST 4)

Show: Goldeck (POST 1)

Betting Strategy

Use Brother Moses (POST 5) as a win wager only if the final price holds above 4-5. At even money, the better approach is an exacta key with Ifthedevildanced (POST 4), Goldeck (POST 1), and Magic On The Bay (POST 3). A small saver exacta using Goldeck (POST 1) over Brother Moses (POST 5) protects against a rail-saving trip.

RACE 2 — Post (7:32)/6:32/5:32/4:32 — 1540f | D | A | Alw 34100n1x | BUM | Purse $34,100

Pace Analysis

The seven-furlong allowance should feature a controlled but legitimate pace. Smart Cry (POST 2) has the profile of a stalking or mid-pack runner, while Zero Degrees (POST 1), Can You See Me Now (POST 3), and Miss Nine One O (POST 4) can apply pressure from nearby.

Smart Cry (POST 2) is well placed to save ground and make one sustained move. Far Away Eyes (POST 6) has the most obvious pace-oriented profile among the outsiders and could force the issue if allowed to dictate. Fake Strolling (POST 5) is likely to need a favorable setup.

Key Contenders

Smart Cry (POST 2) is the strongest horse in the race on the available form indicators and is the morning-line favorite. The horse has repeatedly performed well at similar sprint and intermediate distances, and Christian Hiraldo is a logical fit for a runner that may require patience before making a move. The main risk is that a short price leaves little room for a bad break or traffic.

Zero Degrees (POST 1) is the main danger at 3-1. The rail can be beneficial if the horse breaks cleanly, and the shorter distance relative to a route should keep the horse within range. Zero Degrees is most effective if able to secure a forward position without using too much energy early.

Can You See Me Now (POST 3) is a serious contender at 4-1. The post is ideal for a tactical trip, and the horse should be able to track the pace while remaining clear of the rail. This is the most attractive alternative to Smart Cry (POST 2).

Secondary Choices

Miss Nine One O (POST 4) also merits respect at 4-1. The horse should obtain a clean outside stalking trip, but the race may require a slight improvement in finishing power against the top two.

Far Away Eyes (POST 6) is listed at 10-1 and is the most interesting upset possibility. The horse has enough speed to make the race uncomfortable for the favorites. If Far Away Eyes (POST 6) clears without spending too much energy, the horse could carry that speed a long way.

Longshots

Fake Strolling (POST 5) is listed at 12-1. The horse needs a pace collapse or a marked improvement, but the outside-middle draw should provide a clean run.

Selections

Win: Smart Cry (POST 2)

Place: Can You See Me Now (POST 3)

Show: Far Away Eyes (POST 6)

Betting Strategy

Smart Cry (POST 2) is a usable single in the early Pick 4, but the price should be monitored. The preferred exacta structure is Smart Cry (POST 2) over Zero Degrees (POST 1), Can You See Me Now (POST 3), and Far Away Eyes (POST 6), with a smaller reverse exacta involving Can You See Me Now (POST 3).

RACE 3 — Post (8:02)/7:02/6:02/5:02 — 990f | D | M | Md 7500 | BUN | Purse $16,200

Pace Analysis

The short maiden claiming race has two prominent contenders in They Called'em Bob (POST 1) and Rock N'opportunity (POST 2). Both occupy the inside posts and could leave alertly. Miracle Lad (POST 6) is the most plausible horse to benefit if the two favorites overplay the pace.

The pace should be quick enough to test stamina but not necessarily fast enough to produce a complete collapse. The winner is likely to be a horse within two or three lengths of the lead turning for home.

Key Contenders

They Called'em Bob (POST 1) is listed at 2-1 and has the advantage of the rail. The horse must break cleanly because a slow start could result in pressure from Rock N'opportunity (POST 2) and a difficult trip around the turn. If They Called'em Bob (POST 1) establishes control, the horse is a legitimate win threat.

Rock N'opportunity (POST 2) is the co-favorite and may have slightly more tactical flexibility than the rail horse. The inside draw should allow a ground-saving trip, but the horse cannot afford to become trapped behind a tiring leader.

Secondary Choices

Miracle Lad (POST 6) is the preferred secondary selection at 4-1. The outside post is useful in this field because the rider can avoid early traffic and decide whether to press or stalk. Miracle Lad (POST 6) is the horse most likely to capitalize on a duel between the two favorites.

Shook Me All Night (POST 7) is listed at 8-1 and has an outside stalking opportunity. The horse needs a career-best effort, but the pace scenario gives this runner a reasonable chance to pass tiring horses late.

Longshots

Mark Of Greatness (POST 3) is 12-1 and could save ground while the favorites battle. The horse is not the primary win selection but belongs on deeper exacta and trifecta tickets.

Twister City (POST 4) is 10-1 and may be able to attend the pace from the middle of the field. A clean break is necessary.

El Sindicato (POST 5) is 15-1 and needs significant improvement. The horse is best viewed as a low-level exotics candidate.

Selections

Win: Miracle Lad (POST 6)

Place: Rock N'opportunity (POST 2)

Show: They Called'em Bob (POST 1)

Betting Strategy

Miracle Lad (POST 6) is the preferred value win wager at 7-2 or higher. Use a small exacta box with Miracle Lad (POST 6), Rock N'opportunity (POST 2), and They Called'em Bob (POST 1). Include Mark Of Greatness (POST 3) in trifectas underneath.

RACE 4 — Post (8:32)/7:32/6:32/5:32 — 1430f | D | C | Clm 5000n3x | BUN | Purse $14,600

Pace Analysis

This six-and-a-half-furlong claiming race has three horses listed at 2-1: Lord Of Cork (POST 4), Robbielikeshim (POST 5), and Sesame Streek (POST 6). Their adjacent posts create the possibility of a contested pace. Like Tyson (POST 7) may also press from the outside, while the inside horses could attempt to save ground behind the primary speed.

The race should favor a horse that can sit just off the leaders. A prolonged four-way battle would bring Like Tyson (POST 7) and Abdicate (POST 1) into the discussion, but a moderate pace would keep the main trio prominent.

Key Contenders

Lord Of Cork (POST 4) is the most attractive of the three favorites because the post offers tactical options. The horse can press without being committed to the rail and should receive a clean run into the first turn.

Robbielikeshim (POST 5) should be part of the pace and is another logical win candidate. The concern is that the horse may be forced into a demanding trip if Lord Of Cork (POST 4) and Sesame Streek (POST 6) insist on racing early.

Sesame Streek (POST 6) has the widest draw among the three favorites and may secure the best stalking position if the rider elects not to challenge immediately. The horse is dangerous, but the price is likely to be short.

Secondary Choices

Like Tyson (POST 7) is the preferred secondary horse at 8-1. The outside post gives the rider room to stay clear of traffic, and the horse could be the beneficiary if the three favorites soften each other.

Abdicate (POST 1) is a 10-1 possibility for the lower exotics. The rail trip could produce value if the horse is able to settle behind the speed and find an opening.

Longshots

Papa Linguine (POST 2) and Coolkid (POST 3) are both listed at 20-1. Each needs a substantial improvement, but either could fill a minor award if the pace becomes more demanding than expected.

Selections

Win: Lord Of Cork (POST 4)

Place: Like Tyson (POST 7)

Show: Robbielikeshim (POST 5)

Betting Strategy

Like Tyson (POST 7) is the preferred win-value play if the price remains near 8-1. Use Lord Of Cork (POST 4) and Like Tyson (POST 7) in exacta combinations with Robbielikeshim (POST 5) and Sesame Streek (POST 6). A saver exacta using Like Tyson (POST 7) over Lord Of Cork (POST 4) offers the best value structure.

RACE 5 — Post (9:02)/8:02/7:02/6:02 — 1430f | D | M | Md 12500 | BUM | Purse $20,500

Pace Analysis

The five-horse group at the top of the market consists of Soul Healer (POST 1), Starship Polaris (POST 4), and Poney Island (POST 8), all listed at 2-1. Judy G (POST 7) is the main alternative at 10-1.

The pace could be honest rather than extreme. Soul Healer (POST 1) should attempt to save ground and remain close, while Starship Polaris (POST 4) has the best position to press. Poney Island (POST 8) may be forced to use some energy early from the outside if the rider wants to avoid losing contact.

Key Contenders

Starship Polaris (POST 4) is the preferred favorite. The middle post allows the horse to secure position without being pinned inside, and the six-and-a-half-furlong distance should provide enough time to settle after the break.

Soul Healer (POST 1) is dangerous from the rail. The horse could control the inside trip and is a logical candidate to improve with a clean break. The major concern is traffic if the horse lacks the speed to hold position.

Poney Island (POST 8) is another serious contender. The outside post is not ideal, but the horse should have a clear path and may be able to sit outside the main pace. The price becomes less attractive if Poney Island (POST 8) is heavily bet below 2-1.

Secondary Choices

Judy G (POST 7) is the best value runner. The horse may be able to track the main trio and pick up pieces if the favorites race too aggressively. At 10-1, Judy G (POST 7) is usable in win and exacta wagers.

Longshots

Deever Encounter (POST 2), La Comadre (POST 3), Justice You Say (POST 5), and Singing Softly (POST 6) are each listed at 20-1. None is a primary win selection, but Deever Encounter (POST 2) and La Comadre (POST 3) could save ground and reach the lower rungs of a superfecta.

Selections

Win: Starship Polaris (POST 4)

Place: Judy G (POST 7)

Show: Soul Healer (POST 1)

Betting Strategy

Starship Polaris (POST 4) is a playable win wager at 2-1 or better. Use Judy G (POST 7) as the value horse in exactas over Starship Polaris (POST 4), Soul Healer (POST 1), and Poney Island (POST 8). Include Deever Encounter (POST 2) and La Comadre (POST 3) only in larger trifecta and superfecta tickets.

RACE 6 — Post (9:32)/8:32/7:32/6:32 — 1540f | D | C | Clm 5000b | BUN | Purse $17,000

Pace Analysis

Masterwork (POST 2) and Summer Vibes (POST 5) are the clear morning-line choices at 2-1. Both can race prominently, setting up the possibility of an early contest. Rhumjar (POST 3) should be able to sit just behind them, while Williston Warrior (POST 4) and Anchises (POST 7) are likely to benefit from any pace pressure.

The seven-furlong distance favors a horse with tactical speed and enough stamina to finish. Masterwork (POST 2) is projected to receive the most efficient trip, but Summer Vibes (POST 5) may be more dangerous if able to clear and relax.

Key Contenders

Masterwork (POST 2) is the preferred selection. The horse is drawn inside, owns a favorable tactical profile, and was identified among the strongest runners in available race-specific handicapping information. The principal danger is a pace duel with Summer Vibes (POST 5).

Summer Vibes (POST 5) is equally respected. The outside-middle post gives the rider room to avoid traffic, and the horse should remain within striking range. If Summer Vibes (POST 5) secures an uncontested lead, the horse could be difficult to reel in.

Rhumjar (POST 3) is the logical third contender at 4-1. The horse should enjoy the pace setup if the favorites fight early, but may need to show more finishing strength than the top two.

Secondary Choices

Williston Warrior (POST 4) is an interesting 8-1 alternative. The horse has a suitable post and could receive a tracking trip behind Masterwork (POST 2) and Summer Vibes (POST 5).

Anchises (POST 7) is listed at 10-1 and may be the best long-priced closer. The outside position gives the rider a clear path, but the horse needs the pace to become demanding.

Longshots

Bless America (POST 1) and Conspiracy Fact (POST 6) are each 15-1. Bless America (POST 1) could save ground, while Conspiracy Fact (POST 6) needs a more substantial improvement. Both are fringe superfecta horses.

Selections

Win: Masterwork (POST 2)

Place: Summer Vibes (POST 5)

Show: Williston Warrior (POST 4)

Betting Strategy

Use Masterwork (POST 2) as a Pick 5 anchor if the horse remains near the morning-line price. Exacta players should use Masterwork (POST 2) and Summer Vibes (POST 5) on top of Rhumjar (POST 3), Williston Warrior (POST 4), and Anchises (POST 7). A small Masterwork (POST 2) and Williston Warrior (POST 4) exacta box is attractive at the listed prices.

RACE 7 — Post (10:02)/9:02/8:02/7:02 — 1430f | D | A | Alw 35300n3x | BUM | Purse $35,300

Pace Analysis

This is one of the stronger races on the card. Won Ton (POST 4) and Armucess (POST 5) are both listed at 2-1 and should be forwardly placed. Quality Of Essence (POST 1) and Chasing Sunsets (POST 6) can also race close enough to apply pressure.

The pace should be solid. Armucess (POST 5) may have the best combination of speed and position, while Won Ton (POST 4) could attempt to control the race from the inside of the main contenders. Quality Of Essence (POST 1) is the likely beneficiary if the leaders overdo things.

Key Contenders

Won Ton (POST 4) is the morning-line co-favorite and has the ideal post for a tactical trip. The horse should be able to secure a forward position while avoiding the worst of the inside congestion.

Armucess (POST 5) is the preferred selection of the two favorites. The post offers room to press, and the horse should be able to sit outside Won Ton (POST 4) without losing ground. The race may turn on which of the two gets the better first turn.

Quality Of Essence (POST 1) is an appealing 4-1 alternative. The rail could produce a ground-saving trip, and the horse is positioned to capitalize if the favorites engage in a demanding pace.

Secondary Choices

Chasing Sunsets (POST 6) is listed at 5-1 and should not be overlooked. The outside draw may allow a clean stalking trip, but the horse must avoid losing too much ground around the turn.

Yes To Love (POST 3) is a 10-1 runner with a potentially useful inside-middle post. The horse needs improvement but could stay within range and pick up a minor award.

Longshots

Langleyswaterfall (POST 2) is listed at 15-1 and could save ground behind the main pace. Trotter (POST 7) is the 30-1 outsider and requires a major reversal, although the outside post provides a clean trip.

Selections

Win: Armucess (POST 5)

Place: Quality Of Essence (POST 1)

Show: Won Ton (POST 4)

Betting Strategy

Armucess (POST 5) is a win wager at 2-1 or better. The preferred exacta is Armucess (POST 5) over Quality Of Essence (POST 1), Won Ton (POST 4), and Chasing Sunsets (POST 6). For a larger trifecta, add Yes To Love (POST 3) underneath.

RACE 8 — Post (10:32)/9:32/8:32/7:32 — 1430f | D | C | Clm 5000b | BUN | Purse $15,700

Pace Analysis

The finale contains eleven runners and should produce the most complicated pace of the evening. Powered By Love (POST 5), Ray's Blue Wagon (POST 10), Genuine Gomo (POST 8), and Oleg (POST 3) all have reasons to be involved early. Socially Awkward (POST 4) and Malibu Warrior (POST 6) could add pressure from the middle of the field.

Ray's Blue Wagon (POST 10) has the outside speed position but may be required to travel wide. Powered By Love (POST 5) has the better post and may obtain the most efficient trip. Oleg (POST 3) is the likely beneficiary if the leading group becomes too aggressive.

Key Contenders

Powered By Love (POST 5) is the morning-line favorite at 2-1 and is the most logical win candidate. The horse is drawn in the ideal tactical zone, where the rider can either press or sit just behind the speed. The field size creates some traffic risk, but the post is favorable.

Ray's Blue Wagon (POST 10) is listed at 3-1 and has enough speed to remain prominent. The challenge is the wide draw. If the horse is forced to race three wide throughout, the price will not offer much compensation.

Genuine Gomo (POST 8) is listed at 4-1 and should obtain a clean outside stalking trip. The horse is a legitimate contender, although the wide post could require an aggressive early ride.

Secondary Choices

Oleg (POST 3) is the preferred value runner at 5-1. The horse has an advantageous inside-middle post and could save ground behind the speed. If the pace becomes contested, Oleg (POST 3) is well positioned to make one sustained move.

Malibu Warrior (POST 6) and Socially Awkward (POST 4) are both 12-1 and deserve consideration in the exotics. Malibu Warrior (POST 6) has a useful central draw, while Socially Awkward (POST 4) could receive a ground-saving trip.

Longshots

Likebelivingnmagic (POST 1) and Big Mo Gee (POST 2) are each 15-1. Both could benefit from saving ground if the inside remains competitive.

Mo Joke (POST 11) is listed at 15-1 and faces the most difficult post. The horse needs a clean break and an efficient route into the first turn.

Starship Mocha (POST 7) is listed at 20-1 and needs improvement, while Barleewon (POST 9) is the 30-1 outsider. Both are best used only on wide trifecta or superfecta tickets.

Selections

Win: Oleg (POST 3)

Place: Powered By Love (POST 5)

Show: Ray's Blue Wagon (POST 10)

Betting Strategy

Oleg (POST 3) is the best value win play in the finale if the horse remains at 4-1 or higher. Use Oleg (POST 3), Powered By Love (POST 5), and Ray's Blue Wagon (POST 10) in exacta boxes, with Genuine Gomo (POST 8) added to the broader combinations. For trifectas, use Oleg (POST 3) and Powered By Love (POST 5) on top, followed by Ray's Blue Wagon (POST 10), Genuine Gomo (POST 8), Malibu Warrior (POST 6), and Socially Awkward (POST 4).

Jockey Notes and Insights

Christian Hiraldo rides Smart Cry (POST 2) in Race 2 and is also aboard Lord Of Cork (POST 4) in Race 4. His assignment on Smart Cry (POST 2) is particularly important because that horse appears to prefer a patient stalking trip rather than an unnecessarily aggressive ride.

Moises Santaella has mounts on Magic On The Bay (POST 3), Masterwork (POST 2), Summer Vibes (POST 5), Quality Of Essence (POST 1), and Ray's Blue Wagon (POST 10). The strongest opportunities appear to be Masterwork (POST 2) and Quality Of Essence (POST 1), while Ray's Blue Wagon (POST 10) requires careful management from the wide post.

Jose Y. Diaz rides Zero Degrees (POST 1), Miracle Lad (POST 6), La Comadre (POST 3), and Oleg (POST 3). Miracle Lad (POST 6) and Oleg (POST 3) are the most attractive value assignments among that group.

Jacqueline A. Davis rides Can You See Me Now (POST 3), Twister City (POST 4), Poney Island (POST 8), and Socially Awkward (POST 4). Can You See Me Now (POST 3) and Poney Island (POST 8) offer the strongest chances, although Poney Island (POST 8) must overcome the outside draw.

Nomar Arroyo Bueno has mounts on Ifthedevildanced (POST 4), Miss Nine One O (POST 4), Like Tyson (POST 7), Judy G (POST 7), and Powered By Love (POST 5). His best opportunities appear to be Ifthedevildanced (POST 4), Like Tyson (POST 7), and Powered By Love (POST 5).

Trainer Notes and Insights

Ronney W. Brown has a large presence with Magic On The Bay (POST 3), Rock N'opportunity (POST 2), Masterwork (POST 2), Summer Vibes (POST 5), Quality Of Essence (POST 1), and Ray's Blue Wagon (POST 10). The strongest race-specific positions are Masterwork (POST 2) and Quality Of Essence (POST 1), while Rock N'opportunity (POST 2) is a major player in Race 3.

Kevin J. Joy sends Like Tyson (POST 7), Poney Island (POST 8), Chasing Sunsets (POST 6), and Powered By Love (POST 5). Powered By Love (POST 5) is the stable's most prominent favorite, but Like Tyson (POST 7) is the more attractive price-based opportunity.

Timothy Shanley has Coolkid (POST 3), Williston Warrior (POST 4), and Big Mo Gee (POST 2). Williston Warrior (POST 4) is the most competitive member of the group and offers an appealing secondary price in Race 6.

The remaining trainers have smaller representation, making trip handicapping particularly important. Stephen Murdock's Goldeck (POST 1), Tabitha Wilhelm's Feeling Enchanted (POST 6) and El Sindicato (POST 5), and Michael Jones Jr.'s Robbielikeshim (POST 5) all require close attention to the early race flow rather than reliance on stable size.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The preferred straight win plays are Ifthedevildanced (POST 4) in Race 1, Can You See Me Now (POST 3) in Race 2, Miracle Lad (POST 6) in Race 3, Like Tyson (POST 7) in Race 4, Judy G (POST 7) in Race 5, Williston Warrior (POST 4) in Race 6, Quality Of Essence (POST 1) in Race 7, and Oleg (POST 3) in Race 8.

The strongest potential singles are Smart Cry (POST 2) in Race 2 and Masterwork (POST 2) in Race 6. Brother Moses (POST 5) is the most likely winner of Race 1 but is less attractive as a win wager if bet heavily below even money.

The early Pick 4 should begin with Brother Moses (POST 5), Goldeck (POST 1), and Ifthedevildanced (POST 4) in Race 1; Smart Cry (POST 2), Zero Degrees (POST 1), Can You See Me Now (POST 3), and Far Away Eyes (POST 6) in Race 2; Miracle Lad (POST 6), Rock N'opportunity (POST 2), and They Called'em Bob (POST 1) in Race 3; and Lord Of Cork (POST 4), Robbielikeshim (POST 5), Sesame Streek (POST 6), and Like Tyson (POST 7) in Race 4.

The late Pick 4 can be built around Masterwork (POST 2), Summer Vibes (POST 5), and Williston Warrior (POST 4) in Race 6; Armucess (POST 5), Won Ton (POST 4), Quality Of Essence (POST 1), and Chasing Sunsets (POST 6) in Race 7; and Oleg (POST 3), Powered By Love (POST 5), Ray's Blue Wagon (POST 10), and Genuine Gomo (POST 8) in Race 8.

The most attractive Pick 5 construction uses Smart Cry (POST 2) as a potential single in Race 2, spreads through Race 3 with Miracle Lad (POST 6), Rock N'opportunity (POST 2), and They Called'em Bob (POST 1), uses Lord Of Cork (POST 4) and Like Tyson (POST 7) prominently in Race 4, and finishes with Masterwork (POST 2), Summer Vibes (POST 5), and Williston Warrior (POST 4) in Race 5. A smaller-value ticket should emphasize Can You See Me Now (POST 3), Miracle Lad (POST 6), Like Tyson (POST 7), and Judy G (POST 7) rather than taking every short-priced favorite.

The strongest exacta keys are Ifthedevildanced (POST 4) over Brother Moses (POST 5) and Goldeck (POST 1); Smart Cry (POST 2) over Can You See Me Now (POST 3) and Far Away Eyes (POST 6); Miracle Lad (POST 6) over Rock N'opportunity (POST 2); Like Tyson (POST 7) over Lord Of Cork (POST 4); and Oleg (POST 3) over Powered By Love (POST 5) and Ray's Blue Wagon (POST 10).

The best overall value play on the card is Like Tyson (POST 7) in Race 4, while the best upset candidate is Miracle Lad (POST 6) in Race 3. The strongest favorite is Smart Cry (POST 2) in Race 2, and the most vulnerable short-priced horse is Poney Island (POST 8) in Race 5 because of the outside post and the likelihood of heavy support.

Before wagering, check the Latest Race Scratches, Changes, and Conditions post for any last-minute scratches or race changes.


Get more in-depth analysis for all races and enjoy many other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

Tags:

Comments

No comments yet. Why don’t you start the discussion?

Talkback