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Del Mar Racetrack – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the September 6, 2026 card

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The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

 

Race Day Overview

The Sunday, September 6, 2026 Del Mar card is a deep, stakes-laden program headlined by the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity in race 4, supported by the Shared Belief Stakes in race 8 and the Juvenile Fillies Turf stakes in race 9. The undercard features strong maiden special weights, competitive allowance and claiming events, and several full-field turf routes that should offer significant wagering opportunity across the early and late multi-race sequences.

The narrative of the day centers on the two-year-olds: Bob Baffert sends Hughes (4) and Domus (5) in the Futurity seeking a landmark 20th win in the race, while Doug O'Neill counters with a trio Phone Booth (1), High Pronto (2), and Dang Son (3), continuing the meet-long duel between the two barns in juvenile stakes. Saturday's card saw Observed win the Del Mar Juvenile Turf, underscoring the quality of this year's juvenile crop and suggesting the turf course is handling top-level competition well heading into today's Juvenile Fillies Turf stakes in race 9.

A published set of local handicappers' selections for today's card highlights several key opinions: Ogle (2) in race 9 is tagged as a best bet, with Pioneer Prince (1) in race 6 also singled out prominently, and Desert Gate (3) in race 8 rated as the horse to beat in the Shared Belief. Those opinions line up well with the morning line and overall profile of the fields, and they will form the backbone of the multi-race strategies discussed later.

Weather and Track Conditions

Today's Del Mar conditions are listed as dirt fast and turf firm, consistent across the full Sunday card. Recent reports on the meet describe typical late-summer Southern California weather: clear, dry, and seasonable, with no precipitation and no significant wind issues impacting the racing surface in the days immediately leading into this card.

With a fast main track and firm turf, pace should matter in sprints, but both surfaces are expected to play relatively fair to the major running styles, absent any extraordinary maintenance or weather events.

Track Bias and Post Position Bias

Seasonal “At a Glance” summaries for Del Mar through late August indicate a mild preference for speed and pace-pressers on the dirt track, particularly in shorter sprints, but without an overwhelming bias that forces bettors to ignore strong off-pace types when there is an anticipated pace collapse. Turf course data for the meet show a reasonably fair distribution of winners across running styles, with a slight historical edge to stalking trips sitting just behind the pace in routes, and no severe inside or outside post disadvantage once fields stretch beyond a mile.

Short turf sprints down the hill or around one turn tend to reward drawn speed and tactical pace drawn in the middle of the gate, while the two-turn turf routes have produced winners from both inside and mid-gate posts when the trip is clean. For today's card, none of the turf races appear to be compromised by extreme field size relative to the rail setting, so post position should matter primarily in terms of trip and style rather than any structural bias.

With that overall profile:

On dirt sprints, upgrade horses with true early speed or pressing style who draw reasonably outside of other speed. – On turf routes, emphasize horses who can secure a mid-pack or stalking trip, especially from posts 3 through 9 in the larger fields. – Avoid overreacting to perceived bias; let the pace scenario and individual horse form guide decisions first, then use bias only as a tiebreaker.

RACE 1 — Post 4:30/3:30/2:30/(1:30) — 1100f | T | CO | OClm 50000 | BUN | Purse 41,000

Pace Analysis

Race 1 is a five-and-a-half-furlong turf dash with multiple horses possessing early foot, setting up a contested pace scenario. Gordon's Legacy (2) has shown sharp sprint speed and figures to be sent from an inside draw, while Scene By Me (6) and Mr. Machupicchu (7) both project as forwardly placed pressing types based on their recent sprint lines and typical barn tactics.

The Rabbi (4) has enough tactical speed to sit just behind the leaders, and Broheim (1) from the rail will need to break sharply if connections intend to be part of the early mix. Victoria's Rocket (8) and Maury Wills (9) are more likely to be mid-pack stalkers, hoping the front group softens each other. On a firm turf course, the pace should be lively, but not necessarily suicidal; the best profile is a horse who can sit just off the speed and produce a strong turn move.

Key Contenders

Handicappers converge strongly on Gordon's Legacy (2) and The Rabbi (4) as the two most likely winners. Gordon's Legacy (2) ships back into Southern California off competitive turf sprint efforts and lands in a spot where his speed can be leveraged, with a rider who has been effective at Del Mar in turf sprints. His connections have used this optional claiming condition to place aggressive sprinters, and his prior races suggest he fits at or near the top of this class level.

The Rabbi (4) has the look of a horse pointed specifically to this spot: he comes from a barn with a strong turf record at Del Mar and often improves horses second and third off the layoff. His tactical speed and ability to finish make him a natural fit for this distance, and handicappers see him as the primary danger to Gordon's Legacy (2).

Broheim (1), though slightly overshadowed in published selections, has a rail draw and enough prior turf form to be considered a legitimate key contender if he can secure a ground-saving trip and avoid getting shuffled behind the speed types.

Secondary Choices

Scene By Me (6) appears frequently in the top-three mix of handicappers' early picks, suggesting that his pace presence and consistent sprint form make him an important secondary player. He is not necessarily as explosive late as Gordon's Legacy (2), but if the turf course plays kindly to speed early in the card, his forward position could be a major advantage.

Mr. Machupicchu (7) has upside as a lightly raced type with speed from a barn that can move horses forward second time on the grass. He draws well to watch the pace inside and attempt to pounce turning for home.

Maury Wills (9) has enough prior turf experience to be given a chance to clunk up into the exotics if the pace melts down more than expected. Miles Finch (10), under a top rider, is another stalker who could take advantage if the leaders weaken; handicappers place him just below the top tier but respect his ability to finish.

Longshots

Lucky And Gone (5) and Victoria's Rocket (8) sit as the true longshots on paper. Lucky And Gone (5) faces a serious class and figure test against this group and will need a major wake-up to contend. Victoria's Rocket (8) has an outside draw and projects as a deeper closer who may simply run out of real estate at this short distance, but could sneak into the bottom of the trifecta or superfecta if pace dynamics are more extreme than anticipated.

Prime Artist (3) is a mid-price type who has shown sporadic flashes but lacks the consistent turf sprint figures of the top choices. He can be used underneath in larger exotics but looks a notch below the principal contenders.

Selections

Win: Gordon's Legacy (2) Place: The Rabbi (4) Show: Scene By Me (6)

Betting strategy: Use Gordon's Legacy (2) and The Rabbi (4) as A-level horses to start the early pick 5. Include Scene By Me (6) and Broheim (1) as B-level backups. In intra-race wagers, consider an exacta box Gordon's Legacy (2) and The Rabbi (4), and trifectas keying those two over Scene By Me (6), Broheim (1), Mr. Machupicchu (7), and Miles Finch (10).

RACE 2 — Post 5:05/4:05/3:05/(2:05) — 1320f | D | S | Md Sp Wt | AOF | Purse 100,000

Pace Analysis

Race 2 is a six-furlong dirt maiden special weight for two-year-olds, and the pace should be genuinely strong. Prospect Of Love (1) and Quattro Passi (7), both from a high-percentage juvenile barn, figure to show prominent speed early. Pacemaker (2) also has a name and profile suggesting he could be sent for the lead, and Tammyfaye (6) offers pace pressure from just outside.

With multiple Baffert juveniles and other well-meant maidens, expect a fast first quarter and half, with the race likely to be decided by which of the speed horses can sustain their run, or whether a stalking type like Rosaura (8) or Royal Pearl (5) can capitalize.

Key Contenders

Consensus from handicappers strongly points to Quattro Passi (7) and Prospect Of Love (1) as the top two. Quattro Passi (7) is listed as a co-favorite on the morning line and is handled by a barn with an outstanding record in two-year-old maiden sprints at Del Mar, particularly when pairing with a veteran rider known for timing speed rides perfectly.

Prospect Of Love (1) draws the rail, which can be tricky for an inexperienced juvenile, but his connections excel with this exact setup and often send their rail horses aggressively to avoid trouble. He profiles as a horse who can either make the lead or sit just behind Quattro Passi (7) and get first run on any deeper closers.

Rosaura (8) stands as the primary non-Baffert alternative. She comes from a strong barn for debut and second-time starters on dirt and has a rider who has been in good form at the meet; handicappers consistently list her among the top three.

Secondary Choices

Royal Pearl (5), Tammyfaye (6), and Pacemaker (2) are the main secondary players. Royal Pearl (5), trained by a barn that spots juveniles carefully, may not have the raw speed of Quattro Passi (7) but could sit a nice outside stalking trip if the inside pace gets heated.

Tammyfaye (6) has enough pedigree and connections to be live, particularly if she shows more early speed than anticipated and finds a pressing lane just outside the main pace. Pacemaker (2) must be considered for exotics; even if he does not win, his pace presence can shape the race and he could hang on for minor awards if the track is playing kindly to speed.

American Spirit (3) and Candy For Jeanne (4) look more like learning-on-the-job types, and while either could improve, handicappers generally rank them behind the more established power barns.

Longshots

American Spirit (3) and Candy For Jeanne (4) are the real longshots by morning line and consensus. American Spirit (3) comes from a classic turf-oriented barn that does not always have their juveniles cranked hard for dirt sprints, making him more of a late-developing type. Candy For Jeanne (4) appears overmatched on paper and would need multiple rivals to underperform to crack the top three.

Selections

Win: Quattro Passi (7) Place: Prospect Of Love (1) Show: Rosaura (8)

Betting strategy: This race is a good single or two-deep leg in early multi-race wagers. Lean on Quattro Passi (7) as the primary A with Prospect Of Love (1) as a strong backup. Use Rosaura (8) defensively on deeper tickets. Inside the race, exactas keying Quattro Passi (7) over Prospect Of Love (1), Rosaura (8), and Royal Pearl (5) make sense, with a small reverse exacta including Prospect Of Love (1) on top if the rail speed proves dominant.

RACE 3 — Post 5:38/4:38/3:38/(2:38) — 1980f | T | C | Clm 25000 | BUN | Purse 43,000

Pace Analysis

Race 3 is a marathon mile-and-three-eighths turf claimer with a large field, and the pace is likely to be moderate to honest rather than extremely fast. Ah Jeez (9) and Malibu Coast (2) have shown the ability to attend or set the pace at shorter turf route distances and figure to be forwardly placed again.

City Exile (7) can sit just behind the leaders with a patient rider, while Calm Sea (5) and Living Life (3) are more comfortable as mid-pack stalkers. The sheer field size, combined with the long distance, means riders may be more conservative early, allowing one or two pace horses to control the tempo until the far turn.

Key Contenders

Handicappers center their opinions on Calm Sea (5) and Ah Jeez (9), with Living Life (3) also consistently rated as a top contender. Calm Sea (5) is projected to thrive at the elongated distance due to his grinding style and prior turf route experience; he is expected to be well-positioned mid-pack and launch a sustained run from the three-eighths pole.

Ah Jeez (9), from a barn that handles marathon turf races well, has tactical speed and a rider comfortable rating pace on the grass. He is dangerous if allowed to control the tempo without heavy pressure; handicappers often place him as a win candidate or strong use in doubles and pick 3s.

Living Life (3) has been consistent at standard turf route distances and appears capable of stretching out; his barn has a reputation for placing horses at distances they can handle, and his rider choice adds confidence that he will be given every chance at a ground-saving trip.

Secondary Choices

City Exile (7) and Zalamo (12) are the main secondary options. City Exile (7), partnered with a leading jockey at the meet, should have a comfortable stalking position just behind the pace, and his better efforts fit well with this group if the distance does not stretch him beyond his optimal range.

Zalamo (12) must deal with a wide draw, but his style—settling off the pace and producing a strong late run—can mitigate that if he finds a lane turning for home. Mubtadaa (13) offers similar late-running appeal from the far outside, but both he and Zalamo (12) will be more dependent on a solid pace to set up their finishes.

Dealers Special (4), Keep Movin' On (10), and Uncle Happy (8) have enough prior turf form to be used underneath, particularly in superfectas. They tend to lack either the class or the turn of foot of the key contenders but could benefit from a chaotic pace scenario.

Longshots

Smooth Salute (1), Phosphorescence (6), and Rimprotector (11) appear outclassed on paper and face a combination of distance and form challenges. Smooth Salute (1) would need a pronounced pace collapse and a career-best performance to hit the board. Phosphorescence (6) has been inconsistent and may be best left for deeper exotic tickets. Rimprotector (11) faces post and class questions simultaneously.

Malibu Coast (2), while likely to be part of the pace, has not shown he can sustain his run at this distance against this level of competition, making him more of a potential pace casualty than a win candidate.

Selections

Win: Calm Sea (5) Place: Ah Jeez (9) Show: Living Life (3)

Betting strategy: Use Calm Sea (5) as the primary win play, particularly if his price drifts above the morning line. In exotics, key Calm Sea (5) and Ah Jeez (9) in exactas with Living Life (3), City Exile (7), Zalamo (12), and Mubtadaa (13). In the early pick 5 and middle horizontal sequences, go three-deep with Calm Sea (5), Ah Jeez (9), and Living Life (3), with City Exile (7) as a backup on larger tickets.

RACE 4 — Post 6:11/5:11/4:11/(3:11) — 1540f | D | G1 | DMrFut-G1 | AON | Purse 300,000

Pace Analysis

The Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity at seven furlongs for two-year-olds has only five runners but contains multiple high-level speed elements. Hughes (4), a Grade 3 Best Pal winner, has shown dominant early speed in his first two starts, winning by a combined margin of nearly fourteen lengths and posting elite pace and speed figures.

Domus (5), also from the same powerhouse stable, won his debut by over five lengths and showed the ability to sit just off the pace and finish strongly. Phone Booth (1) and High Pronto (2), both from the rival barn, have displayed pace presence in prior races, with Phone Booth (1) having chased Hughes (4) in the Best Pal. Dang Son (3) is the least exposed but could show speed or sit mid-pack depending on instructions.

Given Hughes (4)'s prior performances, he is likely to either make the lead or be right on top of it, with Domus (5) tracking, and the O'Neill trio trying to apply pressure. The field size suggests a genuine but controlled pace, favoring the most talented speed horses rather than deep closers.

Key Contenders

Hughes (4) is the clear headliner and heavy favorite. He enters this race undefeated, having won his debut and the Best Pal Stakes by open lengths, with figures that tower over his rivals. Handicappers nearly unanimously make Hughes (4) the top selection, and morning-line and overseas forecasts place him as the short-priced favorite.

Domus (5) is the primary threat from the same barn. His debut was visually impressive, and his pedigree suggests he will relish the seven-furlong distance. Handicappers regard Domus (5) as the most likely horse to take advantage if Hughes (4) regresses or gets embroiled in an unexpectedly intense pace duel.

Phone Booth (1) is the leading O'Neill runner and has already faced Hughes (4), finishing second in the Best Pal; he will attempt to turn the tables with perhaps a different tactics pattern. He rates a clear third choice on most lines.

Secondary Choices

High Pronto (2) and Dang Son (3) are secondary players but could hit the board. High Pronto (2) has shown some ability and has been working steadily; his morning line reflects respect but not fear from the betting forecast. Dang Son (3), while the longest shot, could be a pace factor or a horse aimed at picking up pieces late if the top two hook up early.

Longshots

Given the compact field, none of the runners are true extreme longshots, but High Pronto (2) and Dang Son (3) are clearly ranked behind Hughes (4), Domus (5), and Phone Booth (1). For wagering purposes, they are candidates mainly for third and fourth positions in trifectas and superfectas.

Selections

Win: Hughes (4) Place: Domus (5) Show: Phone Booth (1)

Betting strategy: This is a race where Hughes (4) is a logical single in most multi-race wagers. Domus (5) can be used as a small backup, especially if his price is significantly higher. Within the race, consider a straight exacta Hughes (4) over Domus (5), with a saver Hughes (4) over Phone Booth (1). Trifectas keying Hughes (4) on top with Domus (5) and Phone Booth (1) in second, and all in third, offer limited but potentially solid returns if the result follows the form.

RACE 5 — Post 6:44/5:44/4:44/(3:44) — 1870f | T | S | Md Sp Wt | BUM | Purse 80,000

Pace Analysis

Race 5 is a mile-and-one-eighth turf maiden special weight for state-bred runners, featuring a mix of debutantes and lightly raced fillies. Got The Ring (8) and Apples Y Peaches (9) project as possible pace setters or pressers, while Peachy Canyon (3) and Brazoria (4) are more likely to stalk from just behind the leaders.

The expected pace scenario is moderate: one or two fillies will show natural early speed, but connections are unlikely to force a hard duel at this distance on firm turf. That profile favors horses with tactical speed and finishing ability.

Key Contenders

Brazoria (4) is ranked as the top choice by key handicappers, with Peachy Canyon (3) also highly regarded. Brazoria (4), from a world-class turf barn, brings strong pedigree and patient conditioning to this two-turn assignment; this stable regularly unveils quality turf routes at Del Mar who improve second and third start.

Peachy Canyon (3) has a live look on both paper and morning line, with an excellent turf rider and enough early speed to secure position into the first turn. Her connections have targeted the turf route program at this meet and have already scored with similar types.

Mesmerize (5) and Pentle Bay (6) are also from turf-proficient barns and merit consideration as key contenders based on connection strength and likely improvement with added distance.

Secondary Choices

Chair's Coin (7) and Got The Ring (8) are logical secondary players. Chair's Coin (7), from a sharp barn, may be more of a project horse, but her placement in a maiden special turf route hints that she is well-regarded. Got The Ring (8), trained by a barn that frequently sends live turf runners, could take advantage if allowed to set a soft pace.

Apples Y Peaches (9) has a rider capable of giving a clever turf trip and may be a bit better than her bare form suggests, particularly if she has trained forwardly into this spot.

Bourbon Story (1), I'll Be Your Baby (2), Preclude (10), and Greys Over Bays (11) round out the field as exotics candidates; each has some question to answer on either class, distance, or turf ability.

Longshots

Bourbon Story (1) and I'll Be Your Baby (2) appear to be the longest shots on paper. Bourbon Story (1) must prove that he belongs against barns with much deeper turf programs, and I'll Be Your Baby (2) has an outside chance to outrun big odds but looks more like a long-term project.

Preclude (10) and Greys Over Bays (11) face wide draws and will likely need to drop in behind the field and hope for a perfectly timed run to get involved.

Selections

Win: Brazoria (4) Place: Peachy Canyon (3) Show: Mesmerize (5)

Betting strategy: Treat Brazoria (4) as the key win horse, but use Peachy Canyon (3) defensively in horizontals and exactas. Consider exactas Brazoria (4) over Peachy Canyon (3), Mesmerize (5), and Pentle Bay (6). In the early pick 5, this is a spot to use four horses: Brazoria (4), Peachy Canyon (3), Mesmerize (5), and Pentle Bay (6), recognizing the potential for lightly raced improvement.

RACE 6 — Post 7:14/6:14/5:14/(4:14) — 1760f | D | C | Clm 16000 | BUN | Purse 34,000

Pace Analysis

Race 6 is a mile-and-one-sixteenth dirt claimer, and it looks like a race where pace should be honest but not extreme. Pioneer Prince (1) and D Day Sky (4) each have enough early speed to vie for the lead, while Shady Tiger (2) and Geometry (3) can take pressing roles just behind.

Arkadelphia (5) and Mici's Express (6) are more comfortable from mid-pack, while Crypto Ride (8) and Big Juanito (9) often operate as closers or deep stalkers. The likely scenario sees Pioneer Prince (1) on or near the lead, with Shady Tiger (2) applying pressure and the others trying to sit comfortable stalking trips.

Key Contenders

Pioneer Prince (1) is a clear standout on paper and in handicappers' opinions. He is identified as a best bet on the card by more than one source, including a prominent handicapper who notes that he is second off the claim for a top barn and drops in class in a productive maneuver for this stable. His prior runaway win two back and strong dirt route form justify his favoritism.

Shady Tiger (2) is rated just behind Pioneer Prince (1) in consensus selections. He has consistent figures at this level and should enjoy a stalking trip. If Pioneer Prince (1) fails to fire, Shady Tiger (2) is the most likely beneficiary.

Mici's Express (6) appears frequently as a third choice among handicappers and offers some appeal as a horse who can sit mid-pack and finish strongly if the pace is contested early.

Secondary Choices

Geometry (3) and Big Juanito (9) are also viable secondary options. Geometry (3) has enough tactical speed to be involved early and has occasionally shown improved efforts when stretching to two turns. Big Juanito (9), from a barn that can get a late run out of their claimers, may have a chance to pick up pieces if the leaders tire.

Crypto Ride (8), Arkadelphia (5), and I'm A Bad Boy (7) are more fringe contenders. Crypto Ride (8) has glimpses of ability but is inconsistent. Arkadelphia (5) and I'm A Bad Boy (7) may need softer company or pace meltdown scenarios.

Longshots

Arkadelphia (5) and I'm A Bad Boy (7) are the longer shots of the group; both need significant improvement to threaten for the win. D Day Sky (4) could get loose if riders misjudge his ability on the front end, but on paper he looks a notch below Pioneer Prince (1) and Shady Tiger (2).

Selections

Win: Pioneer Prince (1) Place: Shady Tiger (2) Show: Mici's Express (6)

Betting strategy: Pioneer Prince (1) is a strong single in both early and late multi-race wagers. In verticals, key Pioneer Prince (1) over Shady Tiger (2), Mici's Express (6), and Geometry (3) in exactas and trifectas. If his price collapses below acceptable levels, consider a win saver on Shady Tiger (2) if he remains near his morning line.

RACE 7 — Post 7:44/6:44/5:44/(4:44) — 1870f | T | AO | OClm 50000n1x | BUM | Purse 81,000

Pace Analysis

Race 7 is a mile-and-one-eighth turf allowance for fillies and mares, and the pace scenario looks balanced. Lubie's Music (2), Wink And A Grin (4), and Quick Kate (10) possess enough tactical speed to vie for forward positions, while Delightful Laura (3) and Lady In Paris (9) can stalk in mid-pack.

With several Damato-trained fillies—Eternal Reign (6), Upcharge (7), and Lady In Paris (9)—expected to be ridden with patience, the race is likely to feature a measured early pace, with the outcome determined by who gets the best trip through the far turn and stretch.

Key Contenders

Lady In Paris (9) emerges as the likely favorite and key contender on paper and in handicappers' assessments. She brings strong turf figures, consistent form, and a rider who has excelled on the grass at Del Mar, with meet statistics showing high win and in-the-money percentages in turf routes.

Delightful Laura (3), from a barn that excels with turf routes and tactical runners, should secure an ideal stalking position behind the first flight and is considered a principal threat to Lady In Paris (9). Quick Kate (10), with a top rider who produces excellent timing on late runs, also ranks near the top.

Secondary Choices

Lubie's Music (2) and Wink And A Grin (4) are logical secondary contenders. Lubie's Music (2) has pedigree and barn that support improvement with experience and distance; her tactical speed could prove critical if the pace is slower than anticipated.

Wink And A Grin (4), from a turf-savvy barn, could try to control the pace or sit just off the leaders, giving her multiple winning paths.

Eternal Reign (6) and Upcharge (7) round out an uncoupled entry from a barn that routinely places turf horses well; either could step forward second or third off the layoff.

Lady Rider (1), With Love (5), and Una Palabra (8) are more likely depth horses for exotics, though Lady Rider (1) could improve with a better trip from the inside.

Longshots

Una Palabra (8) and With Love (5) represent the longest shots. Una Palabra (8) faces class questions and an outside draw, while With Love (5) may need a class drop or a softer circuit to be competitive for the win.

Selections

Win: Lady In Paris (9) Place: Delightful Laura (3) Show: Quick Kate (10)

Betting strategy: Use Lady In Paris (9) as an A-level horse in late multi-race wagers, with Delightful Laura (3) and Quick Kate (10) as backups. Within the race, consider exactas Lady In Paris (9) over Delightful Laura (3), Quick Kate (10), and Lubie's Music (2). Trifectas keying Lady In Paris (9) in the first two spots with the same supporting cast offer reasonable value.

RACE 8 — Post 8:14/7:14/6:14/(5:14) — 1760f | D | N | ShrdBelifL125k | BON | Purse 125,000

Pace Analysis

The Shared Belief Stakes at a mile-and-one-sixteenth on dirt brings together a strong group of three-year-olds and older horses. Desert Gate (3) and Decisive Win (5) project as principal pace players, with Desert Gate (3) capable of assuming the lead or sitting just outside, and Decisive Win (5) likely to press from a stalking position.

Start The Ride (2) and Essos (4) can stalk the early leaders, while One More Freud (1), Ocean Bear (7), Ahrens (8), and Mo Koko (6) prefer mid-pack or closing roles. The pace should be solid, given the stakes class and multiple forwardly placed types, but the track's fast condition means speed will not be easily overwhelmed without aggressive early fractions.

Key Contenders

Desert Gate (3) is widely viewed as the horse to beat and is a top selection among handicappers. He comes from a barn that dominates stakes-level dirt routes at Del Mar, and his prior performances suggest he has both the speed and stamina to control or sit off a solid pace and finish powerfully.

Decisive Win (5) is the primary challenger, with a barn that has enjoyed success with stakes horses and a rider who has proven ability in graded events. His style—pressing or stalking and finishing—fits this race well, and handicappers place him second behind Desert Gate (3).

Essos (4) also merits serious consideration, with a strong local dirt route resume and a top rider; he can capitalize on any pace duel between Desert Gate (3) and Decisive Win (5).

Secondary Choices

Start The Ride (2) and Ahrens (8) are secondary contenders with legitimate chances to hit the board or even upset if the top pair underperform. Start The Ride (2) has tactical speed and a rider with turf and dirt versatility, while Ahrens (8) hails from a barn that prepares horses well for middle-distance stakes.

One More Freud (1), Ocean Bear (7), and Mo Koko (6) round out the field as fringe contenders; each has shown some ability but appears a notch below the top tier on recent figures.

Longshots

Mo Koko (6), One More Freud (1), and Ocean Bear (7) will likely go off at longer prices and need a perfect trip plus regression from the favorites to win. They can be used underneath in trifectas and superfectas, especially if the pace scenario becomes more contested than anticipated.

Selections

Win: Desert Gate (3) Place: Decisive Win (5) Show: Essos (4)

Betting strategy: Desert Gate (3) is a strong anchor for the late pick 4 and pick 5. Use Decisive Win (5) as a backup in multi-race wagers. Within the race, focus on exactas Desert Gate (3) over Decisive Win (5) and Essos (4), and trifectas Desert Gate (3) over Decisive Win (5) and Essos (4), with Start The Ride (2) and Ahrens (8) in third.

RACE 9 — Post 8:44/7:44/6:44/(5:44) — 1760f | T | N | JuvFlTrfL100k | AOF | Purse 100,000

Pace Analysis

The Juvenile Fillies Turf stakes at one mile on firm turf features several lightly raced or debuting fillies, making pace projections somewhat speculative. River In Paradise (1) and Blockade (3) may show speed from inside posts, while Vanta (4) and Less Please (6) can adopt pressing or stalking roles.

Ogle (2), considered by handicappers as a best bet on the card, profiles as a strong finisher who can sit mid-pack and deliver a decisive late run. Dee Snook (5), Vendetta (7), Confetti Rain (8), and Queenofthewild (9) all have potential to stalk or close, depending on their individual tendencies. Expect a moderate to honest pace, with trip and acceleration on firm turf deciding the outcome.

Key Contenders

Ogle (2) is singled out as the best bet of the day by a leading handicapper and appears atop the consensus selections, reflecting both her perceived class and strong turf potential. Her connections have been successful with turf juveniles, and her draw in post 2 allows for a ground-saving trip with clear options to either stalk just behind the leaders or sit slightly further back if the pace is hot.

Vanta (4) is ranked just behind Ogle (2) and is projected to be well-supported in the wagering. He comes from a barn that regularly sends competitive turf stakes runners and has a high-percentage turf rider aboard.

River In Paradise (1) is consistently listed among the top three in handicappers' rankings, with the rail draw giving him a chance to control or sit just behind the pace and save significant ground throughout.

Secondary Choices

Less Please (6), Dee Snook (5), and Vendetta (7) are logical secondary contenders. Less Please (6) has solid connections and a pedigree that suggests turf aptitude, while Dee Snook (5), from a barn that has been active in juvenile stakes at the meet, can stalk and finish.

Vendetta (7) from a classic turf barn adds depth; her rider selection and draw make her an appealing exotics horse who might exceed expectations if she improves with experience.

Confetti Rain (8) and Queenofthewild (9) are more speculative, but either could step forward significantly at this early stage of their careers.

Longshots

Blockade (3) and River In Paradise (1) might go off at higher prices relative to the main players, but given their posts and potential pace roles, they cannot be dismissed entirely. Blockade (3) could provide pace pressure and hang on for minor awards, while River In Paradise (1) may benefit from an ideal ground-saving trip.

Selections

Win: Ogle (2) Place: Vanta (4) Show: River In Paradise (1)

Betting strategy: Given the strong public opinion on Ogle (2), this race can be approached as a key anchor in the late pick 4 and pick 5. Use Vanta (4) and River In Paradise (1) as backups. Within the race, exactas keying Ogle (2) over Vanta (4), River In Paradise (1), and Less Please (6) are logical, and trifectas Ogle (2) over Vanta (4) and River In Paradise (1) with the field underneath provide coverage against minor upsets.

RACE 10 — Post 9:14/8:14/7:14/(6:14) — 1210f | D | S | Md Sp Wt | AON | Purse 80,000

Pace Analysis

Race 10 is a six-and-a-half-furlong dirt maiden for state-bred runners, with a heavy pace presence. Nashville Champ (8) and Golden Club (7) are expected to show strong early speed, particularly given their powerful juvenile connections.

Study Session (1), Halo Howie (6), and D's Four Thumbs Up (12) can apply additional pressure or press from just behind the leaders. Unleashed Ambition (3), Proud Daniel (4), Real Real (5), Smokem Thirsty (9), Tehama (10), Prime Thunder (11), Scam Alert (13), and Angel's Ember (14) present a wide mix of pacing styles but several possess speed or tactical pace. This shapes as one of the faster maiden sprints of the card, with potential for a contested early pace.

Key Contenders

Nashville Champ (8) and Golden Club (7) stand out as the top choices. Nashville Champ (8), from a powerful juvenile barn, has a sharp work pattern and a strong rider and is likely to be a short price on the tote. Golden Club (7) also brings serious credentials, with a leading rider and connections that have been consistently successful at Del Mar.

D's Four Thumbs Up (12) and Study Session (1) are close behind and make up the primary cohort of win contenders. D's Four Thumbs Up (12), despite the wide draw, can benefit from his rider's ability to position outside speed. Study Session (1) must handle the rail but has the backing of a capable barn.

Secondary Choices

Real Real (5), Halo Howie (6), Smokem Thirsty (9), and Prime Thunder (11) form the secondary tier. Real Real (5), from a barn that is capable of surprising with local maiden winners, may be overlooked in the wagering but can provide value in exotics. Halo Howie (6) has a rider with good meet stats, and Smokem Thirsty (9) could improve with experience.

Tehama (10), Proud Daniel (4), Unleashed Ambition (3), Scam Alert (13), and Angel's Ember (14) are deeper exotics candidates, facing either class, pace, or post challenges.

Longshots

Scam Alert (13) and Angel's Ember (14) will likely be among the longest shots, given their outside draws and crowded field. Prime Thunder (11) and Tehama (10) also face uphill battles from wide posts. They can be included in superfectas but are difficult to endorse strongly for the win.

Selections

Win: Nashville Champ (8) Place: Golden Club (7) Show: Study Session (1)

Betting strategy: Use Nashville Champ (8) and Golden Club (7) as principal A horses in late multi-race sequences. Within the race, key Nashville Champ (8) over Golden Club (7), Study Session (1), and D's Four Thumbs Up (12) in exactas and trifectas. Watch the betting board; if one of the top pair drifts above the morning line, that may signal an overlay.

RACE 11 — Post 9:44/8:44/7:44/(6:44) — 1980f | T | CO | OClm 50000 | BUN | Purse 41,000

Pace Analysis

The nightcap is a mile-and-three-eighths turf optional claimer, similar in distance profile to race 3 but slightly higher in class. Maximon (4), Muscled (8), and Back Nine Stakes (3) all possess tactical speed and could vie for the early lead or pressing positions.

Flamboyant (1), No Poking Around (2), Rostovsky (5), and Moonlit Sonata (11) are likely mid-pack or stalking types, while Lorenzo Bernini (12), Gairloch (13), Ottis Betts (6), Agrowest (9), and Dreamrider (10) prefer off-the-pace tactics. The pace should be moderate and well-controlled, making trip and stamina crucial.

Key Contenders

Back Nine Stakes (3), Muscled (8), and Grey's Boy (7) are highlighted as the top three selections by handicappers. Back Nine Stakes (3), paired with a leading rider and coming from a barn that has placed him aggressively, is expected to secure a favorable position near the front and use his stamina to resist the late challenges.

Muscled (8) has a strong turf pedigree and is conditioned by a barn that excels with turf routes at Del Mar; his finishing ability makes him a significant danger if he secures a clean trip from mid-pack.

Grey's Boy (7), with an efficient rider aboard, adds appeal as a stalking type who can sit just off the pace and grind home.

Secondary Choices

Maximon (4), Flamboyant (1), and Moonlit Sonata (11) are the main secondary options. Maximon (4), from a high-percentage barn, may attempt to control the pace; if he is allowed to dictate moderate fractions, he could be very tough to reel in late.

Flamboyant (1) and Moonlit Sonata (11) have enough class and turf experience to be considered serious exotics horses and possible upset candidates if the leading trio underperform.

Lorenzo Bernini (12), Agrowest (9), and Dreamrider (10) round out the exotics pool; each has some late-running ability and can be used in deeper trifectas and superfectas.

Longshots

No Poking Around (2), Ottis Betts (6), and Gairloch (13) may be the longest shots and will need pace help plus career-best efforts to threaten for the win. They are best considered as bottom-of-superfecta fillers.

Selections

Win: Back Nine Stakes (3) Place: Muscled (8) Show: Grey's Boy (7)

Betting strategy: As the final race in the late pick 4 and pick 5, use Back Nine Stakes (3), Muscled (8), and Grey's Boy (7) as primary horses. Include Maximon (4) and Moonlit Sonata (11) as backups. Within the race, exactas Back Nine Stakes (3) over Muscled (8) and Grey's Boy (7), and trifectas Back Nine Stakes (3) over Muscled (8), Grey's Boy (7), Maximon (4), Flamboyant (1), and Moonlit Sonata (11) are appropriate structures.

Jockey Notes and Insights

Juan J Hernandez appears on multiple live mounts today, including Broheim (1) in race 1, Prospect Of Love (1) in race 2, City Exile (7) in race 3, Hughes (4) in race 4, Got The Ring (8) in race 5, Delightful Laura (3) in race 7, Desert Gate (3) in race 8, Ogle (2) in race 9, Golden Club (7) in race 10, and Back Nine Stakes (3) in race 11. His meet statistics and continued presence on top juveniles and stakes horses underline his status as one of the premier riders at Del Mar.

Joel Rosario has a strong book of rides, including Miles Finch (10) in race 1, Living Life (3) in race 3, Brazoria (4) in race 5, Pioneer Prince (1) in race 6, Quick Kate (10) in race 7, Essos (4) in race 8, Queenofthewild (9) in race 9, Study Session (1) in race 10, and Rostovsky (5) in race 11. His turf and dirt route statistics at the meet have been excellent, with high win and in-the-money percentages in turf routes.

Kazushi Kimura has quickly established himself as a capable turf and dirt jockey at Del Mar, with published stats showing nearly 19 percent wins and around 50 percent in-the-money finishes at the meet. He rides The Rabbi (4) in race 1, Pacemaker (2) in race 2, Calm Sea (5) in race 3, High Pronto (2) in race 4, Apples Y Peaches (9) in race 5, Moonlit Sonata (11) in race 11, and other live mounts, making his presence notable in turf races where tactical positioning is crucial.

Other riders of note include Umberto Rispoli, who partners Rosaura (8) in race 2, Zalamo (12) in race 3, Phone Booth (1) in race 4, Peachy Canyon (3) in race 5, Ocean Bear (7) in race 8, Vanta (4) in race 9, and Muscled (8) in race 11. His turf record and ability to save ground from tricky posts make his mounts attractive in turf races. Antonio Fresu, Hector Isaac Berrios, Tiago Pereira, Jockeys like Kyle Frey, Drayden Van Dyke, and others also have multiple mounts and can provide upset potential in mid-priced horses, particularly in the turf and lower-level claimers.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Bob Baffert has a powerful presence on the card, with key runners Hughes (4) and Domus (5) in the Del Mar Futurity, Desert Gate (3) in the Shared Belief, and Prospect Of Love (1), Quattro Passi (7), and other juveniles in earlier races. Baffert seeks his 20th win in the Futurity, a remarkable record that underscores his dominance in Del Mar juvenile stakes.

Doug O'Neill counters with Phone Booth (1), High Pronto (2), and Dang Son (3) in the Futurity, as well as Pacemaker (2) in race 2, Malibu Coast (2) and Ah Jeez (9) in race 3, Dee Snook (5) and Confetti Rain (8) in race 9, and Nashville Champ (8) in race 10. His barn has been active throughout the meet with juveniles and turf runners, often providing value at mid-range prices.

Other influential trainers on the card include Peter Miller, who sends Pioneer Prince (1) in race 6 and Got The Ring (8) in race 5, and has enjoyed a productive meet with claimers and stakes runners. John Sadler has multiple live horses, including Miles Finch (10) in race 1, Rosaura (8) in race 2, Rostovsky (5) in race 11, and Ahrens (8) in race 8; his record with local stakes and turf horses is strong.

Phil D'Amato, Leonard Powell, Richard Mandella, Michael McCarthy, Mark Glatt, and others play key roles in the turf routes and allowance races, particularly in races 3, 5, 7, 9, and 11. Their barns have reputations for smart placement and readiness in turf routes, making their runners essential considerations in those races.

Overall, the trainer landscape today features a mix of top-tier national operations and sharp local outfits, with the juvenile and turf stakes largely dominated by the major West Coast barns.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The card offers several strong anchor points for multi-race wagers. Pioneer Prince (1) in race 6 and Ogle (2) in race 9 stand out as potential singles for the mid-card and late sequences, respectively, given their strong consensus support and favorable setups. Hughes (4) in race 4 and Desert Gate (3) in race 8 are also logical singles or two-deep legs, especially in the early pick 4 and late pick 4.

Early pick 5 (races 1–5): Consider structuring as follows:

Race 1: Gordon's Legacy (2), The Rabbi (4), Scene By Me (6), Broheim (1) Race 2: Quattro Passi (7), Prospect Of Love (1), Rosaura (8) Race 3: Calm Sea (5), Ah Jeez (9), Living Life (3), City Exile (7) Race 4: Hughes (4) as a single, with Domus (5) as a small backup on larger tickets Race 5: Brazoria (4), Peachy Canyon (3), Mesmerize (5), Pentle Bay (6)

Late pick 5 (races 7–11): Suggested approach:

Race 7: Lady In Paris (9), Delightful Laura (3), Quick Kate (10) Race 8: Desert Gate (3) and Decisive Win (5), with Essos (4) as backup Race 9: Ogle (2) as a single, with Vanta (4) and River In Paradise (1) as backup on deeper tickets Race 10: Nashville Champ (8), Golden Club (7), Study Session (1), D's Four Thumbs Up (12) Race 11: Back Nine Stakes (3), Muscled (8), Grey's Boy (7), with Maximon (4) and Moonlit Sonata (11) as additional coverage

Value plays emerge where handicappers' consensus and morning line may diverge. Calm Sea (5) in race 3 and Brazoria (4) in race 5 could offer solid value if their prices float above their perceived probabilities. In the stakes, Essos (4) in race 8 and River In Paradise (1) in race 9 are interesting mid-price options that can be leveraged in exotics.

Throughout the day, focus on:

Leveraging strong favorites like Hughes (4), Desert Gate (3), Pioneer Prince (1), and Ogle (2) as structural anchors. – Identifying mid-range horses with strong connections and solid setups—such as Calm Sea (5), Brazoria

Before wagering, check the Latest Race Scratches, Changes, and Conditions post for any last-minute scratches or race changes.


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