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Lone Star Park – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the May 9, 2026 card

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Race Day Overview — Lone Star Park, May 9, 2026

The Saturday card at Lone Star Park shapes up as a competitive ten-race program highlighted by a turf optional claiming event in Race 4 and a full field of maiden special weight fillies on the turf to close the card in Race 10. The day's races span the full range of conditions from $5,000 claimers at the bottom of the ladder to $41,500 allowance company in Race 9, giving bettors a wide range of wagering opportunities across both the dirt and turf surfaces.

The biggest news surrounding the Lone Star ship this week ties directly to the Triple Crown trail. Steve Asmussen, who trains the headline horse Curlin's Incharge (POST 6) in Race 2 among other entries on today's card, remains one of the most active conditioners on the grounds. The buzz in backstretch circles continues to center on the Preakness Stakes developments, with Golden Tempo bypassing the May 16 Classic and Jose Ortiz picking up the mount on Chip Honcho in the second leg. That news has little direct impact on today's Lone Star card but reflects the energy surrounding Asmussen's barn as his operation runs horses coast to coast during the spring championship season.

Asmussen fields runners in Races 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9 today, making him the dominant training presence on the card. His son Erik Asmussen handles several of those mounts from the irons. Trainer Mindy Willis also sends out multiple runners, as does trainer Jerry Gourneau and trainer Karen Jacks, who has horses in at least four races.

The condition book today leans toward claiming and allowance types, with a pair of maiden special weight events in Races 8 and 10 providing the most intrigue from a futures standpoint. Race 3 offers the richest dirt allowance opportunity on the afternoon at a $33,500 purse, and the $40,500 turf allowance in Race 7 is the single biggest purse on the card.

Weather and Track Conditions — Lone Star Park, May 9, 2026

The Dallas-Fort Worth area is experiencing warm spring conditions heading into Saturday. Forecasts indicate partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the mid-to-upper 80s at post time for the early races, climbing toward the high 80s by the late afternoon races. Wind out of the south at 10 to 15 miles per hour, gusting occasionally to 20 mph, is expected. No meaningful precipitation is anticipated, and the main track should be rated fast by mid-morning following a dry stretch through the week.

The turf course at Lone Star is scheduled to be firm to good, which is typical for this time of year when the Bermuda grass is in good growing condition. Lone Star's turf course tends to play evenly under firm conditions, though the inside can get a bit chewed up as the meet progresses into Saturday afternoon. Horses that can settle in mid-pack and make one run on the outside have historically fared well on this course when the turf is firm.

Horsemen should note that Lone Star's main track can produce a noticeable speed bias when conditions are fast and the surface is sealed. The inside part of the track near the rail has played well this spring meet, and closers have found it challenging to make up significant ground in the late stages unless they are within striking distance turning for home.

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

The main track at Lone Star Park has historically favored horses with early speed when the surface is rated fast, and this spring meet has been consistent with that pattern. Front-runners and horses that stalk the pace from positions two through four lengths off the lead have won at a disproportionate rate. Closers who spot the pace more than five or six lengths off the leader have struggled to get up in time, particularly in the shorter sprint distances of five and a half furlongs.

Post position data from the current Lone Star meet suggests that inside posts carry a slight advantage in route races on the main track, where horses in posts one through three can get the early rail and save ground. In sprint races, mid-draw posts four through six have performed well, as horses can break alertly without being squeezed and get onto the rail without having to work for position. Outside posts in sprints have fared poorly unless the horse in question has natural gate speed to carry wide early.

On the turf course, post position bias tends to moderate. The one-mile turf route used for Race 4 and the turf sprint distances used in Race 7 and Race 10 allow horses with outside posts to settle and angle in without surrendering too much ground. Inside posts on the turf can be a curse if a horse draws a slow post and gets bottled up, so trainers with early pace types on grass should be cautious about the rail. Mid-to-outside posts have actually performed admirably on the Lone Star turf this meet for horses with tactical speed or closing ability.

Speed bias is the headline factor for today's dirt races. Horses that can secure a clean lead or a forward stalking position in the first quarter mile will have a significant structural advantage, and bettors should lean toward early pace horses when evaluating win probability across the sprint races on this card.

RACE 1 — Post 2:35 — 1760f | D | C | Clm 5000 | BUN | Purse $14,000

This is a seven-furlong claiming event at the $5,000 level for horses three years old and up. At the bottom rung of the claiming ladder, form is often inconsistent and these fields can be volatile, but there are still clear angles to work with on this six-horse field.

Race 1

Pace Analysis

The early pace picture here is actually quite interesting given the small field. Malibu Rain (POST 5) is the morning line favorite at 1-1 and figures to establish or press the early fractions from a forward position. Upward Mobility (POST 6) also has the profile of an early pace participant based on typical running style tendencies for horses at this level. With two horses likely to push the early pace in a seven-furlong route, the question becomes whether either can sustain the effort, or whether a closer working from the back of this field gets an ideal setup. The expected pace scenario is moderate to honest given the distance and class, which should keep the race from completely falling apart early.

Key Contenders

Malibu Rain (POST 5) is the clear morning line choice at even money, and the 1-1 price reflects a strong local reputation. Trained by Martin Manuel Valdez-Cabral and ridden by A.J. Juarez Jr., this horse projects as the horse to beat in the lowest claiming ranks. Juarez is one of the more active pilots at Lone Star this meet and knows the track surface well. At $5,000 claiming, a sharp workout line and consistency in form are the key benchmarks, and Malibu Rain checks those boxes as the likely public choice.

Upward Mobility (POST 6) is the second choice on the morning line at 2-1 and represents a serious threat from the Dick Cappellucci barn. Floyd Wethey Jr. has the mount, and Cappellucci is a known quantity at Lone Star with a solid percentage at this claiming level. If Upward Mobility can race just off Malibu Rain and be the fresher horse in the stretch, the 2-1 price could easily be value.

Secondary Choices

Ells (POST 3) draws attention at 4-1 on the morning line for trainer Jerry Gourneau, with Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez in the saddle. Gourneau runs horses consistently on the Lone Star grounds and occasionally uncovers a spot where a horse fits perfectly at this level. Valdez-Jiminez is an active rider who knows how to rate horses at the sprint distances. If Ells can get a clean trip from post three and the two leaders carry each other in the early fractions, a late run could be effective.

Longshots

Reddingandlee (POST 1) opens at 8-1 with Weston Hamilton up for trainer Anthony Arey. From the rail in a short field, this horse will need to break alertly to avoid being shuffled back, but inside post horses at seven furlongs on the dirt have run reasonably well this meet. Ripster (POST 4) at 15-1 for Wayne George and Luis Huaman seems like a tall order unless the favorites underperform significantly. Eurorockstar (POST 2) at 20-1 for trainer Tiffany Hernandez and Rodolfo De La Cruz Guerra is the biggest longshot in the field and would need things to go perfectly to factor.

Betting Strategy

This is a straightforward race to approach from a win perspective. The 1-1 on Malibu Rain (POST 5) is likely too short for serious profit, so the angle is to either oppose and back Upward Mobility (POST 6) at 2-1 for better value, or structure an exacta with Malibu Rain (POST 5) on top over Upward Mobility (POST 6) and Ells (POST 3). The 2-1 on Upward Mobility offers the best price-to-probability ratio in this field. A small exacta box of Malibu Rain (POST 5), Upward Mobility (POST 6), and Ells (POST 3) makes sense at the $1 level for coverage.

Selections

Win: Upward Mobility (POST 6) Place: Malibu Rain (POST 5) Show: Ells (POST 3)

RACE 2 — Post 3:02 — 1870f | D | C | Clm 7500n3l | BUN | Purse $14,000

A nine-horse field going a mile and one-sixteenth on the main track for three-year-olds and up that have not won three lifetime. The field size increases the exotics potential considerably.

Race 2

Pace Analysis

With nine horses going a route of ground, the early positioning battle will be critical. Flying Tex (POST 1) from the rail for Jerry Gourneau will want to press or steal the early lead. Singing Dixie (POST 4) and Uptown Tappin (POST 7) both project as forwardly placed horses that could pressure the early pace. If three horses trade fractions up front through the opening half, the race could set up beautifully for a closer. Rivetage (POST 5) and Curlins Incharge (POST 6) both figure to be working from closer to mid-pack or off the pace, and a contested early pace scenario benefits both.

Key Contenders

Rivetage (POST 5) is the morning line favorite at 2-1, trained by J.R. Caldwell and ridden by Rene Diaz. Caldwell is a solid conditioner at Lone Star who manages his horses' conditions carefully, and the 2-1 morning line suggests a horse that fits tightly in this spot. Diaz is a competent rider at this track level.

Curlins Incharge (POST 6) at 3-1 is the Asmussen-trained entry ridden by Erik Asmussen. The connection alone draws attention. Asmussen's barn is firing at a high rate at Lone Star this meet, and a horse named in the Curlin fashion fits the family tradition. Erik Asmussen has been effective when given quality mounts, and a 3-1 morning line on an Asmussen horse in a Lone Star overnight race warrants respect.

Secondary Choices

Ambiguous (POST 2) at 4-1 for trainer Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez with R.A. Vazquez aboard is a live price. Ramirez-Rodriguez quietly gets horses fit and ready at this level, and Vazquez has been among the more productive riders on the grounds. Uptown Tappin (POST 7) at 4-1 for Robert Werneth with I.V. Diego up is another secondary choice worth noting, particularly if the early pace gets heated and positions up front tire in the stretch.

Longshots

Haskelled (POST 8) at 10-1 for Matt Hebert with Jose Alvarez aboard could be an interesting price horse if everything clicks with a rough pace up front. Singing Dixie (POST 4) at 10-1 for Jaime Castellanos with Juarez up has some appeal as a pace presser who could steal this if allowed easy fractions. Clements Ride (POST 9) at 15-1 from the outside post for Tiffany Hernandez and Rodolfo De La Cruz Guerra would need a ton of things to go right. King Of Grace (POST 3) at 20-1 for Alejandro Baldillez Jr. is facing a steep uphill climb at that price. Flying Tex (POST 1) at 20-1 for Jerry Gourneau is a clear longshot despite the rail, likely a front-end pace piece.

Betting Strategy

The Asmussen angle on Curlins Incharge (POST 6) at 3-1 is the play here. The barn is active, the rider knows the horse, and the price is fair for a horse that could easily be sent off below 2-1 on the board. Structuring exactas with Curlins Incharge (POST 6) over Rivetage (POST 5) and Ambiguous (POST 2) makes sense. If looking for a trifecta, adding Uptown Tappin (POST 7) as the third horse provides coverage in the event pace collapses up front.

Selections

Win: Curlins Incharge (POST 6) Place: Rivetage (POST 5) Show: Ambiguous (POST 2)

RACE 3 — Post 3:29 — 1430f | D | A | Alw 33500n1x | BUM | Purse $33,500

Seven horses face the starter for six furlongs on the main track in an allowance race for horses that have never won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter. This is one of the better quality races on the afternoon program and features a morning line favorite who carries obvious star power.

Race 3

Pace Analysis

Curlin's Lil Gal (POST 7) breaks from the outside post and is the morning line favorite at 2-1. Flash Master (POST 1) from the rail figures to be one of the speed horses, and Misty Muppet (POST 2) could also put in an early bid from the favorable second post. The expected scenario is a contested pace through the first three furlongs on a fast track, which could set up for horses with tactical speed or a strong late kick. The outside post for the favorite is not ideal on a dirt track with a speed bias, but a quality horse can overcome that disadvantage with natural ability.

Key Contenders

Curlin's Lil Gal (POST 7) is the 2-1 morning line choice for trainer Isaiah Ortiz with A.J. Juarez Jr. in the irons. This filly or mare carries the Curlin name and a 2-1 morning line in allowance company, which suggests a horse with legitimate form credentials. Juarez is the right rider for a horse breaking from the outside who needs to settle early and move at the right time. Ortiz is not one of the higher-profile names on the grounds but has delivered winners in spots like this.

Misty Muppet (POST 2) at 3-1 for trainer Danny Pish with Weston Hamilton aboard is a solid second choice. Pish is one of the better trainers at the meet with a consistent strike rate, and Hamilton has been improving in his efforts at Lone Star. Drawing the second post in a sprint is nearly ideal, and if Misty Muppet has the speed to press from a favorable position, this runner could take the favorite's measure late.

Secondary Choices

Whimsical Heir (POST 3) at 4-1 for Martin Manuel Valdez-Cabral with Christian Ramos is a legitimate secondary choice. Valdez-Cabral conditions horses well for allowance spots, and Ramos is quietly developing into a reliable rider at this level. Lottery Ticket (POST 5) at 4-1 for Domingo Chacaltana with De La Cruz Guerra is another 4-1 shot who could factor if the pace sets up for a mid-pack rally.

Longshots

Surely Swift (POST 6) at 6-1 for trainer Francisco Bravo with Floyd Wethey Jr. is an honest price for a horse that could be sitting on a big effort. Amadora's Empire (POST 4) at 8-1 for trainer Joaquin Garza with D.L. Parker is worth a note in exotics at the price. Flash Master (POST 1) at 12-1 for Jerry Gourneau with Valdez-Jiminez from the rail is likely the speed of the speed but faces a steep price to win.

Betting Strategy

Misty Muppet (POST 2) at 3-1 represents excellent value with a top trainer, improving rider, and ideal post position. The bet here is Misty Muppet (POST 2) to win, with exactas connecting Misty Muppet (POST 2) with Curlin's Lil Gal (POST 7) in both directions and a trifecta key using Misty Muppet (POST 2) on top over Curlin's Lil Gal (POST 7) and Whimsical Heir (POST 3).

Selections

Win: Misty Muppet (POST 2) Place: Curlin's Lil Gal (POST 7) Show: Whimsical Heir (POST 3)

RACE 4 — Post 3:56 — 1870f | T | AO | OClm 40000b | BUN | Purse $36,500

Nine horses contest this optional claiming event at $40,000 going a mile and one-sixteenth on the turf. This is an open claiming race for older horses, and the field features a trio of co-favorites on the morning line plus several intriguing secondary selections.

Race 4

Pace Analysis

With Calibrate (POST 1) from the rail at 2-1 and Ocelot (POST 5) also at 2-1, the pace scenario depends on how aggressively these horses are ridden early. West Of Me (POST 9) at 2-1 from the outside adds a third co-favorite who will need to run wide. A turf mile and one-sixteenth with three horses at even money creates a complex pace picture. Country Caper (POST 8) for Francisco Bravo and Executive Power (POST 7) for Mindy Willis project as secondary pace participants. If a contested early pace develops, the race could be won by the horse that gets the best trip, and post position on the turf at this distance becomes a premium factor.

Key Contenders

Calibrate (POST 1) at 2-1 for trainer Robertino Diodoro with Geovanni Franko-Angeles is a formidable morning line choice. Diodoro has a strong national reputation for conditioning turf horses, and getting the rail on a turf course at a mile and one-sixteenth is a significant structural advantage. The rail post in turf routes allows a horse to save ground throughout and conserve energy for the stretch. Franko-Angeles has experience at Lone Star and can be trusted to make the right decisions from the inside.

Ocelot (POST 5) at 2-1 for trainer Tristan Ashford with Lane Luzzi is the second co-favorite and comes from mid-draw, which is an acceptable spot on the turf. Ashford conditions horses for this type of race, and Luzzi has been a reliable pilot at Lone Star.

Secondary Choices

West Of Me (POST 9) at 2-1 from the far outside is the third co-favorite and the most intriguing in terms of trip handicapping. An outside post in a turf route forces the horse to either run extremely wide throughout the course or hope for a seam along the inside as the field compresses. The 2-1 morning line on a horse from post 9 in a nine-horse turf field suggests strong form but adds trip uncertainty. Executive Power (POST 7) at 6-1 for Mindy Willis with D.L. Parker is a price worth considering. Willis has been training well at this meet, and a 6-1 price in a race with three co-favorites creates a potential overlay situation. Country Caper (POST 8) at 5-1 for Francisco Bravo with Wethey is another secondary contender who could benefit from a fast pace up front.

Longshots

Wow That's Hot (POST 4) at 8-1 for Asmussen with Scott Elliott is the Asmussen barn's entry and is always dangerous when placed in a spot where the class fits. Team Leader (POST 2) at 10-1 for Mindy Willis with Valdez-Jiminez is a second Willis runner in this race, suggesting the barn is covering angles. Brucelea (POST 3) at 15-1 and Carlea's Dream (POST 6) at 15-1 represent the Karen Jacks double entry and appear to be longer shots in this competitive field at these prices.

Betting Strategy

Calibrate (POST 1) at 2-1 from the rail is the structural play in this turf route. The inside post advantage, combined with Diodoro's turf training credentials, makes this the most logical horse to single or key in exotics. An exacta wheel of Calibrate (POST 1) over the field at 2-1 gives low risk with reasonable reward. Trifectas with Calibrate (POST 1) on top, Ocelot (POST 5) second, and West Of Me (POST 9) and Executive Power (POST 7) filling out the third spot offer value.

Selections

Win: Calibrate (POST 1) Place: Ocelot (POST 5) Show: Executive Power (POST 7)

RACE 5 — Post 4:23 — 1430f | D | C | Clm 20000n2l | BUN | Purse $17,000

Nine horses go six furlongs on the main track in a claiming event for horses that have not won two lifetime. Dettori (POST 9) opens as the morning line favorite at 2-1 under the Karen Jacks-Weston Hamilton combination.

Race 5

Pace Analysis

With nine horses going six furlongs on a speed-favoring track, the early pace battle will determine the shape of the race. Saint Benji (POST 1) from the rail for Justin Evans with Christian Ramos figures to be forwardly placed from an ideal inside post. Dettori (POST 9) from the outside will need gate speed to avoid being parked wide through the first turn. Maxxus (POST 5) and I'm A Dude To (POST 7) are also likely to press the pace. If three or four horses engage early, the race sets up for a closer to come from behind, which could benefit horses that rate kindly in the early going.

Key Contenders

Dettori (POST 9) at 2-1 for Karen Jacks with Hamilton is the morning line choice despite the far outside post. Jacks has been active at Lone Star with a respectable win percentage, and Hamilton is an improving rider who has shown comfort on speed types. The name itself carries some levity, but the horse needs to overcome the nine hole in a nine-horse sprint, which historically puts outside post horses at a disadvantage on the Lone Star main track.

Saint Benji (POST 1) at 3-1 for Justin Evans with Christian Ramos is the value call in this race. From the rail in a sprint with a likely forward running style, Saint Benji gets every structural advantage the track bias offers. Evans trains a solid book of horses at Lone Star, and the 3-1 morning line suggests a horse that is fit and ready to run.

Secondary Choices

Maxxus (POST 5) at 4-1 for Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez with Vazquez is a mid-draw secondary choice who could make a forward move on the first turn and be sitting in a perfect position at the top of the stretch. I'm A Dude To (POST 7) at 4-1 for Todd Fincher with Juarez is interesting, as Fincher is a capable conditioner and Juarez knows this track extremely well. These two runners form the core of any exotic structure in this race.

Longshots

Awesome Name (POST 6) at 12-1 for Asmussen with Elliott is likely the price longshot bettors will gravitate toward given the barn connection, but 12-1 on an Asmussen horse in a spot like this sometimes means the barn prefers another runner or the form is developing. Zed (POST 3) at 12-1 for Terry Eoff and Deacon Jones (POST 4) at 12-1 for Javier Ruiz Ortiz with Thiago Canuto are additional longshots who would need significant pace trouble ahead to factor. Eligio (POST 8) at 12-1 for George Bryant with Luzzi and Lucky Tapiture (POST 2) at 20-1 for Mark Lee with Diego complete the field on the outside of the contention picture.

Betting Strategy

Saint Benji (POST 1) at 3-1 from the rail is the best bet in this race given the speed bias and post position advantage. An exacta of Saint Benji (POST 1) over Dettori (POST 9) and Maxxus (POST 5) covers the most likely outcomes. If looking for a trifecta, adding I'm A Dude To (POST 7) as the third horse gives good coverage.

Selections

Win: Saint Benji (POST 1) Place: Maxxus (POST 5) Show: I'm A Dude To (POST 7)

RACE 6 — Post 4:50 — 1430f | D | CO | OClm 7500 | BUN | Purse $15,000

Nine horses navigate six furlongs on the dirt in an open claiming event at $7,500 for horses three years old and up. This is a mid-afternoon claiming sprint with some legitimate competitive intrigue.

Race 6

Pace Analysis

Axton (POST 3) at 2-1 is the morning line favorite and projects as an early pace factor from the third post. Third Street (POST 9) at 3-1 from the outside will need to find early speed to overcome post position. Worth Looking (POST 7) at 4-1 is also likely to press from a mid-outside draw. With three horses likely competing for early position, this pace shapes up as contested and possibly fast enough to set up a closer from off the pace. Ore Mine (POST 1) for Dick Cappellucci from the rail is worth monitoring as a pace-controlling type.

Key Contenders

Axton (POST 3) at 2-1 for trainer Dick Cappellucci with Juarez is the most logical morning line choice. Cappellucci has a dual entry today with Ore Mine (POST 1), and the fact that the barn puts Juarez on Axton rather than the rail horse suggests Axton is the preferred runner. Cappellucci has been competitive at the $7,500 claiming level at Lone Star, and Juarez's presence is a positive signal.

Third Street (POST 9) at 3-1 for Justin Evans with Vazquez is the morning line second choice and represents solid value if the outside post can be overcome with good early speed. Evans has been training horses well this meet.

Secondary Choices

Worth Looking (POST 7) at 4-1 for J.R. Caldwell with Rene Diaz is the most compelling secondary selection. Caldwell has a runner in Race 2 as well today, and the 4-1 price on Worth Looking could be a legitimate overlay in a race where the favorites could fight each other early. Diaz is capable of rating a horse and finding the right position in a nine-horse field.

Longshots

Ore Mine (POST 1) at 6-1 for Cappellucci with Wethey is an interesting price on a Cappellucci second string from the rail. Fort Hood (POST 2) at 12-1 for M. Brent Davidson with Elliott is a longshot in the morning line but Davidson has runners elsewhere today and occasionally enters horses in lower-level spots where they can compete. Pinky Ring Bling (POST 4) at 12-1 for Gourneau with Valdez-Jiminez is another longer price. Cawkab (POST 8) at 10-1 for Asmussen with Erik Asmussen is the barn's entry and carries the automatic Asmussen premium for public bettors, though 10-1 is a fair morning line price if the horse is developing. Send Off (POST 5) at 15-1 for Sarah Nicole Davidson with Mario Fuentes is a longshot with minimal expectations. Classy Socks (POST 6) at 20-1 for Allen Dupuy with Parker is the deepest price in the field.

Betting Strategy

The Cappellucci double entry angle is the story here. With Juarez on Axton (POST 3) and Wethey on Ore Mine (POST 1), the barn has two live chances. Axton (POST 3) at 2-1 is the preferred single, but an exacta combining Axton (POST 3) with Third Street (POST 9) and Worth Looking (POST 7) makes sense. The trifecta using Axton (POST 3) on top is the structure to build around, with multiple horses filling the second and third positions.

Selections

Win: Axton (POST 3) Place: Third Street (POST 9) Show: Worth Looking (POST 7)

RACE 7 — Post 5:17 — 1650f | T | AO | OClm 12500n1x | BUM | Purse $40,500

Ten mares and fillies go seven furlongs on the turf in an open claiming event for horses that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter. This is the richest purse on the card at $40,500 and features a full field with legitimate pace intrigue.

Race 7

Pace Analysis

Shy Ann (POST 7) and Global Holiday (POST 10) are co-favorites at 2-1. With ten horses on the turf going seven furlongs, the pace scenario is complex. All American Lady (POST 1) from the rail for Terry Eoff could attempt to control the pace from inside, which is valuable in turf sprints. Kissin Riches (POST 3) for Asmussen at 4-1 and Typhoon Tessie (POST 6) at 4-1 figure as mid-pack types who can rate and run. A moderate pace through the first half would set up the closers, but if the rail horse gets loose on the front end, Shy Ann (POST 7) and Global Holiday (POST 10) will need to be within striking distance turning for home.

Key Contenders

Shy Ann (POST 7) at 2-1 for trainer Matt Hebert with Lane Luzzi is one of the co-favorites and projects as the class of this field based on morning line positioning. Hebert has had success with fillies and mares on turf, and Luzzi provides quality hands. The 2-1 is a fair price for the perceived top choice.

Global Holiday (POST 10) at 2-1 for trainer M. Brent Davidson with Jose Alvarez is a second co-favorite who must overcome the ten post in a turf sprint. Outside posts in turf sprints require a horse to either rush for position early or settle for a wide trip, both of which are costly. Davidson has multiple runners on the card today and is an active presence. Alvarez has the mount, which is notable since Alvarez also gets the mount on Typhoon Tessie (POST 6) — wait, reviewing the card, Alvarez is listed on Typhoon Tessie (POST 6) and Global Holiday (POST 10) cannot be correct with the same jockey. Davidson has Alvarez on Global Holiday (POST 10) and the barn connection makes this horse worth monitoring regardless.

Secondary Choices

Kissin Riches (POST 3) at 4-1 for Asmussen with Erik Asmussen is a live secondary choice with the barn's typical advantage. Third post on the turf is workable, and if Kissin Riches has turf form that matches the conditions today, the Asmussen barn will have this horse primed. Typhoon Tessie (POST 6) at 4-1 for William Bret Calhoun with Jose Alvarez is a second secondary choice at the same price. Calhoun conditions horses well for turf races, and the 4-1 morning line on a horse from the sixth post in a ten-horse turf sprint represents realistic opportunity. Texas Moon (POST 8) at 4-1 for Karen Jacks with Weston Hamilton is the third runner at 4-1, giving bettors three equal prices at that level.

Longshots

All American Lady (POST 1) at 8-1 for Eoff with Fernando Jara is an intriguing price on the rail horse in a turf sprint. If All American Lady can clear the field early and get a soft lead, 8-1 is a generous price for a potentially wire-to-wire winner. Charlie's A Rockin (POST 2) at 12-1 for Willis with Elliott is a longshot but Willis has runners performing well at Lone Star. Tapitsgotapistol (POST 4) at 15-1 for M. Brent Davidson with Parker and Clever Clementine (POST 5) at 15-1 for Eduardo Cruz with Wethey are both deep prices. Imma Going To Win (POST 9) at 12-1 for Adan Sebastian Rodriguez with Santos Rivera is an outside price with a fun name but faces a tough task.

Betting Strategy

The value in Race 7 is on All American Lady (POST 1) at 8-1 to steal this turf sprint from the rail. If the horse breaks cleanly and gets a soft early lead, the rest of the field is spotting her significant ground. In exotics, structure a trifecta using All American Lady (POST 1) and Shy Ann (POST 7) as your top two in combination, with Kissin Riches (POST 3), Typhoon Tessie (POST 6), and Texas Moon (POST 8) filling the third position. The win single on All American Lady (POST 1) at 8-1 is the best-priced bet of the second half of the card.

Selections

Win: All American Lady (POST 1) Place: Shy Ann (POST 7) Show: Kissin Riches (POST 3)

RACE 8 — Post 5:44 — 1210f | D | S | Md Sp Wt | BOF | Purse $33,000

Nine fillies and mares go five and a half furlongs on the dirt in a maiden special weight sprint. The field is led by Mi Amiga (POST 6) at 2-1 on the morning line for Asmussen.

Race 8

Pace Analysis

Five and a half furlongs on a speed-biased main track creates a race where the first quarter mile determines everything. Mi Amiga (POST 6) from mid-draw for Asmussen with Erik Asmussen figures as the pace-controlling type. Shesalittledevil (POST 2) at 5-1 for Justin Evans could also be forwardly placed from an inside draw. If the Asmussen filly breaks well and clears, she could be very difficult to catch on this surface at this distance. Best Beach (POST 7) and Princess Peach (POST 9) figure as mid-pack closers who need the pace to be contested.

Key Contenders

Mi Amiga (POST 6) at 2-1 for Asmussen with Erik Asmussen is the clear morning line choice. In maiden special weight sprints, the Asmussen barn has a strong record placing horses properly in their debut or early starts. The 2-1 morning line suggests this filly has shown something in the morning to justify favoritism.

Best Beach (POST 7) at 4-1 for Todd Fincher with Christian Ramos is a very solid second choice. Fincher is one of the more successful trainers in the region for young horses, and placing a maiden at 4-1 suggests competitive form credentials. Ramos is developing nicely into a reliable rider for Fincher's stock.

Secondary Choices

Princess Peach (POST 9) at 4-1 for Danny Pish with Lane Luzzi is a quality secondary choice. Pish has a strong record with maiden fillies and knows how to time a filly's first serious efforts. From the outside post, Luzzi will need to be patient and wait for a seam, but Pish horses are generally fit and ready on race day. Shesalittledevil (POST 2) at 5-1 for Evans with Geovanni Franko-Angeles is another viable contender. Evans has Saint Benji in Race 5 today as well and is clearly active on this card.

Longshots

Minnie's Pearls (POST 3) at 6-1 for Francisco Bravo with I.V. Diego represents a price worth considering in exotics. Mare's Music (POST 8) at 10-1 for Austin Gustafson with Vazquez is a deeper price longshot. Trutap (POST 1) at 15-1 for Asmussen with Scott Elliott is the second Asmussen entry and carries a long morning line despite the barn connection, suggesting the barn views Mi Amiga (POST 6) as significantly preferred. Zapper M (POST 4) at 30-1 for Allen Dupuy with Hamilton and Ms Exaggerator (POST 5) at 30-1 for Jesse Sauceda with Fuentes are both massive outsiders who would require significant favorites trouble to factor.

Betting Strategy

Mi Amiga (POST 6) at 2-1 is the right single here, but the price makes win wagering unattractive. The play is to use Mi Amiga (POST 6) on top in exactas with Best Beach (POST 7), Princess Peach (POST 9), and Shesalittledevil (POST 2) underneath. A trifecta box of Mi Amiga (POST 6), Best Beach (POST 7), and Princess Peach (POST 9) at the $0.50 level is a manageable investment with solid upside if the favorites run their races.

Selections

Win: Mi Amiga (POST 6) Place: Best Beach (POST 7) Show: Princess Peach (POST 9)

RACE 9 — Post 6:11 — 1210f | D | A | Alw 41500n3l | BUN | Purse $41,500

Eight horses contest five and a half furlongs on the main track in the day's top purse race at $41,500. This allowance event for horses that have not won three lifetime features Aggie's Creed (POST 7) as the 2-1 morning line favorite.

Race 9

Pace Analysis

Five and a half furlongs at the allowance level on a speed-biased track creates a pace scenario where the leader has every advantage. Texas Creed (POST 4) at 3-1 figures as a speed horse from mid-draw who could press the pace or attempt to lead. Aggie's Creed (POST 7) from the seventh post will need gate speed to avoid being caught wide. High Cinco (POST 5) at 4-1 for Danny Pish could be a pace presser who sits second or third and makes a move at the turn. If multiple horses compete for the lead through the opening quarter, the late-running types get a legitimate shot.

Key Contenders

Aggie's Creed (POST 7) at 2-1 for trainer Mindy Willis with Scott Elliott is the morning line choice. Willis has been training well throughout this meet, and Elliott is one of the better riders on the grounds. The 2-1 morning line on a horse from the seventh post in a short sprint is notable but reflects the horse's form credentials.

Texas Creed (POST 4) at 3-1 for trainer Ronnie Cravens III with Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez is a natural challenger from mid-draw. Cravens is an active trainer at Lone Star and has found this horse a spot where it can win. From the fourth post with Valdez-Jiminez aboard, Texas Creed has every opportunity to stalk the early pace and strike at the right moment.

Secondary Choices

High Cinco (POST 5) at 4-1 for Danny Pish with Lane Luzzi is a quality secondary selection. Pish has runners in Races 3, 8, and 10 today as well, demonstrating barn activity. Cheating Heart (POST 8) at 4-1 for Dick Cappellucci with Wethey is an interesting option from the outside post. Cappellucci has multiple runners today, and if Cheating Heart has the talent to handle this allowance class, the 4-1 price has some merit.

Longshots

Charlie Dont Surf (POST 2) at 8-1 for Mindy Willis with Juarez is a second Willis runner in this race, and at 8-1, presents a potential value option if bettors overinvest in the preferred Aggie's Creed (POST 7). Sip And Go (POST 1) at 10-1 for Karen Jacks with Erik Asmussen is a longshot from the inside post. Obvious Conclusion (POST 3) at 15-1 for trainer Alan Love with Fuentes is a deep price. Chasing The Rush (POST 6) at 20-1 for Tiffany Hernandez with De La Cruz Guerra is the maximum-priced longshot in this field and would need significant pace trouble to threaten.

Betting Strategy

The double Willis entry creates an interesting scenario. With Aggie's Creed (POST 7) at 2-1 and Charlie Dont Surf (POST 2) at 8-1, the barn covers two legitimate options. The value bet is Charlie Dont Surf (POST 2) at 8-1 to win as a single against the heavily backed favorite. If looking for a safer play, Texas Creed (POST 4) at 3-1 is the most structurally sound horse in the race based on post position and trainer form. The suggested exacta is Texas Creed (POST 4) over Aggie's Creed (POST 7) for the upset angle.

Selections

Win: Texas Creed (POST 4) Place: Aggie's Creed (POST 7) Show: High Cinco (POST 5)

RACE 10 — Post 6:38 — 1650f | T | S | Md Sp Wt | BUM | Purse $40,000

Thirteen fillies and mares go seven furlongs on the turf in a maiden special weight event to close the card. With thirteen runners and a massive turf sprint field, this is a challenging race to solve but offers outstanding exotic wagering opportunities.

Race 10

Pace Analysis

Thirteen horses on the turf over seven furlongs creates a complex early pace picture. The field will naturally compress in the early stages as horses jostle for position on the first bend. She's A Kitten (POST 3) at 2-1 and Maid To Keep (POST 4) at 2-1 are co-favorites and figure to receive prominent positioning early. Cincalita (POST 13) at 1-1 is the morning line underlay and will need gate speed to overcome the thirteen post in a seven-furlong turf sprint. The extreme outside posts in a thirteen-horse turf field are a significant concern regardless of talent level.

Key Contenders

Cincalita (POST 13) at 1-1 is the morning line underlayer and would be an extraordinary 1-1 morning line choice if the horse can overcome the thirteen post in a maiden turf sprint. Danny Pish trains this runner with Hamilton aboard. Pish has a track record of placing maidens well and the 1-1 price reflects enormous confidence from the morning line maker. However, the post position alone makes this horse a questionable win single at even money. Bettors should wait and see if the horse shortens further on the board before committing a large win bet.

She's A Kitten (POST 3) at 2-1 for Terry Eoff with Isaiah Wiseman is a co-favorite from an ideal inside post in a turf sprint. Eoff is an experienced trainer and the third post on a turf course of seven furlongs is among the best positions available. This horse should be a strong factor regardless of what happens in the rest of the field.

Maid To Keep (POST 4) at 2-1 for Danny Pish with Weston Hamilton is Pish's second runner in this race, which is unusual and notable. Having two horses in the same maiden race at 1-1 and 2-1 with the same jockey on both creates a situation where Hamilton will only ride one and another jockey may take the other. The trainer clearly has two horses who belong in this spot, but bettors should confirm which horse Hamilton rides and which gets an alternate jockey.

Secondary Choices

Bad And Boozy (POST 7) at 5-1 for Darla Singh with Luzzi is a secondary choice worth considering. Luzzi has been reliable at Lone Star and mid-draw positions on the turf at seven furlongs are acceptable. Chargenlucky (POST 9) at 8-1 for Jaylan Renay Clary with D.L. Parker is an interesting mid-field runner that could get a decent trip if the pace is contested early. Cahills Redemption (POST 2) at 10-1 for Tina Rena Hurley with De La Cruz Guerra is a longer price from an inside post that is hard to completely dismiss in a large turf field where pace chaos can elevate unlikely runners.

Longshots

Love Me Some Candy (POST 5) at 12-1 for Ronnie Cravens III with Valdez-Jiminez is a mid-field longshot who will need things to go perfectly. Sherrys Ridge (POST 10) at 20-1 for Ronald Kotara with Huaman, Chip Alternative (POST 11) at 20-1 for Miguel Silva with Diaz, Gold Mesa (POST 12) at 20-1 for M. Brent Davidson with Fuentes, Nayakim (POST 8) at 30-1 for Dale Swift with Rivera, and Holiday Cruise (POST 1) at 20-1 for Javier Ruiz Ortiz with Canuto are all deep prices in a large field where post position alone eliminates most of them from serious contention. Devilish Springs (POST 6) at 15-1 for Shon Dunlap with I.V. Diego is a mid-field longshot with minimal pace expectations.

Betting Strategy

The key to Race 10 is understanding that Cincalita (POST 13) is being bet to 1-1 despite an impossible post position in a thirteen-horse turf sprint. The value is against the morning line underlayer. She's A Kitten (POST 3) from post three at 2-1 is structurally superior and figures to be very competitive at the price. Maid To Keep (POST 4) at 2-1 is equally well-drawn from post four. These two horses combined with Bad And Boozy (POST 7) form a solid trifecta structure at prices that could produce a meaningful return if the favorite disappoints. Consider singling She's A Kitten (POST 3) in any multi-race wagers and using a wide spread underneath in exotics given the chaotic nature of a thirteen-horse maiden turf sprint.

Selections

Win: She's A Kitten (POST 3) Place: Maid To Keep (POST 4) Show: Bad And Boozy (POST 7)

Jockey Notes and Insights

A.J. Juarez Jr. is one of the most active riders on the Lone Star card today, appearing in Races 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, and 9. Juarez has been one of the meet's more reliable pilots and his presence on a horse at any odds level deserves attention. His best opportunities today are on Malibu Rain (POST 5) in Race 1, Singing Dixie (POST 4) in Race 2, Curlin's Lil Gal (POST 7) in Race 3, and Axton (POST 3) in Race 6. Of those mounts, Axton (POST 3) in Race 6 represents the single with the most value given Juarez's comfort on forward-running types on this surface.

Scott Elliott appears multiple times today for trainer Asmussen, taking mounts in Races 4, 5, 6, and 9. Elliott's best chance among these may be Aggie's Creed (POST 7) in Race 9 where Willis entrusts him with the morning line favorite in the day's premier race. Elliott is a capable rider who consistently performs for quality barns.

Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez is another rider with multiple mounts across the card, appearing in Races 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, and 9. His best shot today may be on Texas Creed (POST 4) in Race 9 where the Cravens barn places him on the 3-1 second choice in an allowance sprint.

Weston Hamilton is active across the afternoon with mounts in Races 1, 3, 5, 7, 8, and 10. Hamilton has been improving at Lone Star and the Pish and Jacks barns trust him with their better runners. His strongest opportunity may be Maid To Keep (POST 4) in Race 10 if he rides that horse for the Pish barn.

Lane Luzzi handles mounts across multiple races including Ocelot (POST 5) in Race 4, Eligio (POST 8) in Race 5, Shy Ann (POST 7) in Race 7, Princess Peach (POST 9) in Race 8, High Cinco (POST 5) in Race 9, and Bad And Boozy (POST 7) in Race 10. Luzzi is one of the more experienced riders on this card and should be respected across his book of business.

Erik Asmussen handles a full book for the family barn, with mounts on Curlins Incharge (POST 6) in Race 2, Carlea's Dream (POST 6) in Race 4, Cawkab (POST 8) in Race 6, Kissin Riches (POST 3) in Race 7, Mi Amiga (POST 6) in Race 8, and Sip And Go (POST 1) in Race 9. His best chance is clearly Mi Amiga (POST 6) in Race 8, where the barn deploys him on the morning line favorite.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Steve Asmussen is the dominant trainer figure on this card with runners in seven of the ten races. His barn has been running well at Lone Star this spring, and the breadth of his entries today suggests the operation is at full strength. The key Asmussen runners to follow are Curlins Incharge (POST 6) in Race 2 at 3-1, which represents the best value among his starters today, and Mi Amiga (POST 6) in Race 8 at 2-1, where the barn places its top-quality maiden filly.

Danny Pish has four runners today across Races 3, 8, and 10, including the remarkable situation of having two horses in Race 10 at 1-1 and 2-1 with the same jockey listed. Pish has a strong maiden win percentage and is clearly confident in his horses today. His Misty Muppet (POST 2) in Race 3 at 3-1 is the recommended single from the Pish barn.

Mindy Willis runs horses in Races 4, 7, and 9 with the notable double entry of Aggie's Creed (POST 7) at 2-1 and Charlie Dont Surf (POST 2) at 8-1 in Race 9. Willis barns horses carefully and tends to run them when they are ready. The value option from Willis today is Charlie Dont Surf (POST 2) at 8-1.

Jerry Gourneau has runners in Races 1, 2, and 3 today, none of which are favored, but the trainer knows his horses fit in their spots. Flash Master (POST 1) in Race 3 at 12-1 is the deepest price Gourneau runner today.

Karen Jacks runs in Races 4, 5, 7, and 9, with Dettori (POST 9) in Race 5 at 2-1 being her featured morning line choice. Jacks is an active trainer who manages a diverse stable of claimers and allowance horses.

Dick Cappellucci has a double entry in Race 6 with Axton (POST 3) at 2-1 and Ore Mine (POST 1) at 6-1, plus Cheating Heart (POST 8) in Race 9 at 4-1. The Cappellucci stable runs horses that fit their conditions tightly, and the preferred horse today is Axton (POST 3) in Race 6.

Justin Evans trains Saint Benji (POST 1) in Race 5 and Shesalittledevil (POST 2) in Race 8, and Third Street (POST 9) in Race 6. Evans has been developing into a reliable conditioner at Lone Star, and Saint Benji (POST 1) in Race 5 at 3-1 represents his best win opportunity today.

Robertino Diodoro's sole entry on the card is Calibrate (POST 1) in Race 4, but Diodoro's national reputation for conditioning turf horses makes that single entry worth maximum attention.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The best value play on the card is All American Lady (POST 1) in Race 7 at 8-1 to win. The structural advantage of the rail post in a turf sprint with a horse that figures to control the pace at a generous price is the type of bet that serious bettors target. A $20 win bet on All American Lady (POST 1) at 8-1 returns $180, which is substantial upside for a horse with a legitimate chance to lead every step of the race.

The second-best value play is Curlins Incharge (POST 6) in Race 2 at 3-1. The Asmussen barn is running well, Erik Asmussen is aboard, and 3-1 in a nine-horse claiming field with potential pace help represents fair odds for a horse that could easily be backed down to 5-2 or lower at post time.

For multi-race wagering, the Pick 4 spanning Races 7 through 10 is the most attractive sequence on the card. The legs break down as follows: Race 7 is best approached by singling All American Lady (POST 1) or spreading with All American Lady (POST 1), Shy Ann (POST 7), and Kissin Riches (POST 3). Race 8 is best anchored with Mi Amiga (POST 6) as a single given the Asmussen morning line favoritism. Race 9 allows for spreading with Texas Creed (POST 4), Aggie's Creed (POST 7), and High Cinco (POST 5). Race 10 requires a wide spread given the thirteen-horse field; using She's A Kitten (POST 3), Maid To Keep (POST 4), and Bad And Boozy (POST 7) gives solid coverage.

A suggested $0.50 Pick 4 ticket structure for the late sequence would be: All American Lady (POST 1) with Mi Amiga (POST 6) with Texas Creed (POST 4) and Aggie's Creed (POST 7) with She's A Kitten (POST 3), Maid To Keep (POST 4), and Bad And Boozy (POST 7). That four-leg ticket at $0.50 with two runners in Leg 3 and three in Leg 4 costs $6.00 and offers a potentially large return if the 8-1 shot wires the turf sprint in Race 7.

For the exacta of the day, the single best structure is Saint Benji (POST 1) over Dettori (POST 9) in Race 5. A horse with rail post advantage on a speed-biased track beating the morning line favorite from the nine post is a logical outcome, and the exacta should pay a healthy figure even at those odds.

The trifecta of the day is in Race 7: All American Lady (POST 1) and Shy Ann (POST 7) on top in combination, with Kissin Riches (POST 3), Typhoon Tessie (POST 6), and Texas Moon (POST 8) filling the bottom. A $0.50 exacta box of All American Lady (POST 1) and Shy Ann (POST 7) combined with a $0.50 trifecta using those two over three closers gives both the win double and the trifecta coverage in the day's largest purse race.

For bettors interested in the early Pick 5 spanning Races 1 through 5, the suggested structure anchors Upward Mobility (POST 6) in Race 1, Curlins Incharge (POST 6) in Race 2, Misty Muppet (POST 2) in Race 3, Calibrate (POST 1) in Race 4, and Saint Benji (POST 1) in Race 5. Spreading in Race 4 with Ocelot (POST 5) and Executive Power (POST 7) alongside Calibrate (POST 1) adds coverage in the most competitive turf race of the sequence. A $0.50 base ticket using three horses in Race 4 and two in Race 5 runs $3.00 and represents strong value if the logical contenders run their races.

Before wagering, check the Latest Race Scratches, Changes, and Conditions post for any last-minute scratches or race changes.


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