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Monmouth Park – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the August 23, 2026 card

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Race Day Overview — Monmouth Park, Sunday, August 23, 2026

New Jersey Thoroughbred Festival Day brings a nine-race card to Monmouth Park, with first post set for 12:50 PM EDT. All nine races are restricted to New Jersey-bred horses, a condition that runs throughout the entire card and gives today's program a distinctive local flavor. The restricted conditions create tighter talent pools that reward thorough class analysis over raw speed figures, and knowing which connections have the hottest NJ-bred stock at the moment is critical for finding value.

The centerpiece of today's card is the $100,000 Chesapeake Handicap in Race 5, contested at 1870 feet on the main track. Race 3 offers the $75,000 NJ-Bred Handicap at 1320 feet on the main track, and Race 8 features the $75,000 Eleven North Handicap, also at 1320 feet on the dirt. These three stakes anchor a card that also features two maiden special weight events, two optional claiming events, and one additional optional claimer.

Regarding today's broader racing landscape, the attention of the national press is squarely on next Saturday's GI Travers Stakes at Saratoga, where Golden Tempo, the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes winner, is drawing rave reviews heading into the Midsummer Derby. Todd Pletcher's Renegade had a sparkling final work ahead of the Travers but Pletcher is reportedly seeking a new rider for the colt after a jockey situation developed over the weekend. None of this directly impacts today's Monmouth card, but it provides context for the competitive environment around New Jersey's flagship track this time of year. Closer to home, Book'em Danno, the reigning champion male sprinter and three-time New Jersey-bred Horse of the Year, blew out three furlongs in :37 flat at Monmouth on Saturday morning in preparation for next Saturday's GI Forego Stakes at Saratoga. His presence as a headline horse throughout the summer has continued to elevate the profile of the NJ-bred program.

Weather and Track Conditions

Late August weather at Monmouth Park typically features warm, humid conditions characteristic of the Jersey Shore. For today's Festival Day card, conditions are expected to be partly cloudy with temperatures in the mid-to-upper 80s and humidity levels running high. No significant precipitation is forecast prior to or during racing, which should allow both the main track and the turf course to present in good order. The main track is listed as fast and the turf course is listed as firm heading into today's races, both favorable for honest pace scenarios. Horses that performed well on firm turf in prior outings get a particular edge today on the grass course. Wind off the Atlantic can be a subtle factor at Monmouth in late summer afternoons, occasionally affecting times in the stretch run heading into the homestretch.

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

Monmouth Park's main track has historically shown a moderate speed bias during the summer meet when the track is fast, rewarding horses that can secure a forward position without expending excessive energy. However, closers with sharp late pace figures have demonstrated the ability to run down pace-pressers when the fractions get honest. On the one-turn routes on the main track (around 1320 feet), inside posts carry a modest advantage, as horses can save ground through the turn. At the longer route distances on the main dirt (1870 feet), the field stretches out and post position becomes less determinative, though rail posts can still be advantageous with a good break.

On the Monmouth turf course at 1210 feet (five furlongs) and 1870 feet (one mile plus), post position becomes more significant given the shorter runs to the first turn. Outside posts in the 1210-foot turf sprints require jockeys to hustle early and risk being caught wide. The inside posts at both turf distances show a meaningful edge, particularly when turf course conditions are firm and the ground is at a premium near the rail. When conditions are genuinely firm, as reported for today, horses that can sit just off the pace in the first flight and make one smooth, sustained move typically prevail on the turf at Monmouth. Speed figures can be slightly misleading in NJ-bred turf races, where class and breeding can outperform pure figure horses.

RACE 1 — Post (12:50)/11:50/10:50/9:50 — 1210f | T | AO | OClm 15000n1x | BUM | Purse $51,875

Opening day card kicks off with a five-furlong turf optional claimer restricted to fillies and mares who have never won a claiming race. Nine runners go to the gate in this NJ-bred spot, and the field features a mix of maiden graduates, recent maiden winners looking to step forward, and horses that have been bouncing around the lower levels of the claiming ranks. The 1210-foot turf sprint puts a premium on tactical speed and clean breaks from the gate, and with nine horses going five furlongs on the grass, the inside posts carry a real edge.

Pace Analysis

This race figures to feature multiple speed horses battling for early positioning, which could set up a slight closer's advantage. One Fine Wine (3) on the morning line at 2-1 appears to be one of the horses that will press early, and Red Head Italian (2) at 3-1 also profiles as a forward-running type. If the pace is honest through the first quarter, horses with natural late kick on the turf will get their chance. Postino's Prophecy (6) at 5-1 and Molly's A Bullet (7) at 8-1 could benefit from any early pace meltdown. Little Lia (9) from the extreme outside figures to be used early to get position, which could further contribute to a faster pace scenario.

Key Contenders

One Fine Wine (3) exits trainer Patrick McBurney's barn and carries 2-1 morning line favoritism that reflects her standing as the most accomplished runner in the field on paper. McBurney is a competent conditioner with the NJ-bred ranks at Monmouth and knows how to spot a horse properly. Pascacio Lopez gets the mount and is one of the more active and capable riders in the Monmouth jockey colony. For a 1210-foot turf sprint, her ability to break cleanly and secure a good position from Post 3 is a significant advantage. She will need to be forwardly placed to make her run effective.

Red Head Italian (2) at 3-1 under Kelly Breen and Luis Rivera Jr. is a dangerous combination. Breen is one of the sharper trainers on the mid-Atlantic circuit and consistently gets horses ready on time, particularly in restricted and optional claiming company. Rivera is Monmouth's leading jockey and his ability to read a race and slot into position makes him dangerous regardless of the horse. From Post 2 on the turf, Rivera will be able to secure a ground-saving position. This is a horse that bears close watching.

Secondary Choices

Postino's Prophecy (6) at 5-1 from the Holly Harris barn with C. Sutherland aboard draws a middle post on the turf. Harris is a steady conditioner with the NJ-bred horses and has had success at this class level on the turf course at Monmouth. Sutherland is an experienced Monmouth regular who handles turf assignments well. If the pace is fast early, Postino's Prophecy (6) could be in good position for a sustained late move.

Air Masque (8) at 6-1 from Ben Perkins Jr. with Melissa Iorio is worth considering. Perkins is an experienced NJ-based trainer who conditions NJ-bred stock with particular effectiveness. From Post 8, Air Masque (8) will need to find racing room and cannot afford to be caught wide on a short turf sprint.

Longshots

Slick Merlin (1) at 15-1 from Charles Spina's barn draws the rail and gets Christian Maragh, which is the best jockey-post combination possible on a five-furlong turf sprint. The rail in a turf sprint at Monmouth is premium real estate, and if Slick Merlin (1) can break cleanly and hold position, Maragh is smart enough to make the most of the advantage. At 15-1, there is potential overlay value here if Spina has this horse ready.

Cassie's Vault (5) at 10-1 is the second Spina runner, with Charlie Marquez up. Spina stabling two horses in the same race does split some attention, but Cassie's Vault (5) could present modest price value if she fires a forward effort.

Life Raft (4) at 8-1 for JoAnn Bertone and Dalila Rivera is a horse to note at the price. Bertone occasionally produces tactical turf horses who outrun their price in restricted company.

Molly's A Bullet (7) at 8-1 for Anthony Margotta Jr. and Ramon Moya is another mid-range price with some appeal. Margotta conditions an active barn at Monmouth and keeps his horses competitive at this level.

Little Lia (9) at 20-1 from the outside post is facing a severe post position disadvantage in a turf sprint. At the longest price in the race, she is best used only in wide exotics at minimum investment.

Selections

Win: Red Head Italian (2) Place: One Fine Wine (3) Show: Slick Merlin (1)

Wagering Strategy: The race sets up for a tight exacta between Red Head Italian (2) and One Fine Wine (3) with Slick Merlin (1) as a live longshot underneath. Box the 2 and 3 in exactas, and use Slick Merlin (1) at 15-1 underneath both on a partial ticket. A small trifecta using 2/3/1-5-6-7 is the recommended structure for exotic players.

RACE 2 — Post (1:22)/12:22/11:22/10:22 — 1320f | D | S | Md Sp Wt | BUN | Purse $57,500

The second race is a maiden special weight for fillies and mares going 1320 feet on the main track. With seven runners and a co-morning line favored situation, this race presents some genuine intrigue. Maiden special weight races at the NJ-bred level require scrutiny of workouts, breeding for the distance, and trainer patterns with first-time starters or horses exiting poor efforts.

Pace Analysis

Johnny Bay Goode (3) and J J Pacheco (4) both carry 2-1 odds and figure to be in contention early. The pace will depend heavily on how the early leaders are ridden. If Stormy City (5) at 4-1 is sent forward, the race could develop honest fractions that set up a closer. This is a seven-horse field where pace shape could shift significantly based on early positioning from the key speed horses.

Key Contenders

Johnny Bay Goode (3) at 2-1 for trainer Wayne Potts with Pascacio Lopez is one of two co-favorites. Potts operates a solid mid-tier barn at Monmouth and his horses are generally well-prepared. Post 3 is a workable draw in a seven-horse field going a route on the dirt. Lopez is among the more experienced jockeys in the colony and will be well-suited for a route of ground ride.

J J Pacheco (4) at 2-1 for Cesar Alcala and Charlie Marquez is the other half of the co-favorite combination. Alcala is an active trainer on the Monmouth grounds who has had success placing horses effectively in NJ-bred conditions. Marquez is a capable rider who handles dirt routes well. From Post 4 with the inside posts available on either side, J J Pacheco (4) could get a perfect trip tracking the pace.

Secondary Choices

Stormy City (5) at 4-1 from Eddie Owens Jr. with Jose Antonio Gomez is a legitimate contender at a price. Owens is one of the most active trainers in the NJ-bred division and his horses frequently compete in exactly this type of spot. Stormy City (5) from Post 5 has a reasonable draw and Gomez, while not the colony's leading rider, knows his way around Monmouth.

Change Your Boots (1) at 6-1 from Bobbi Anne Hawthorne with Kendry Rivera draws the rail. In a 1320-foot dirt route, the rail can be an advantage with a clean break. Hawthorne is a Monmouth-based conditioner who works primarily with NJ-bred horses and can be dangerous at fair prices in restricted company.

Longshots

Why Me Lord (6) at 6-1 is the second Wayne Potts runner, getting Luis Rivera Jr. aboard. Rivera is the colony's leading rider, which gives this Potts second-string runner a significant upgrade. In maiden races where the outcome is genuinely uncertain, having the leading jockey aboard a 6-1 shot creates overlay potential. This horse deserves respect in the exotics.

Notyourordinaryjoe (2) at 8-1 from Rory Huston with Ramon Moya is a price play that could surface in a race with this level of uncertainty. Huston conditions a solid NJ-bred operation at Monmouth and occasionally produces maiden graduates at big prices. At 8-1 in a maiden race, Notyourordinaryjoe (2) is worth a small inclusion in trifecta tickets.

Garden Gal (7) at 6-1 from Joan Milne and Edwin Gonzalez closes out the field from the outside post. Milne has a quiet but effective barn at Monmouth. From Post 7, Garden Gal (7) will need to work back to the inside in a seven-horse field on the dirt, and the post disadvantage makes her more of a show play in exactas than a win candidate.

Selections

Win: J J Pacheco (4) Place: Stormy City (5) Show: Why Me Lord (6)

Wagering Strategy: With two horses at identical 2-1 odds, the market is essentially telling you the race is wide open above the chalk. Use J J Pacheco (4) on top with Stormy City (5) and Why Me Lord (6) underneath in exactas. A trifecta structured 4/3-5/2-3-5-6 covers the most logical outcomes while keeping tickets manageable.

RACE 3 — Post (1:52)/12:52/11:52/10:52 — 1320f | D | N | NJBredrsHB75k | BUN | Purse $75,000

The first stakes race of the day is the $75,000 NJ-Bred Handicap for horses that have never won a handicap race, going 1320 feet on the main track. Seven runners contest this spot, and the 1-1 morning line on Cairo Surprise (5) indicates a probable single in this race. Cathal Lynch is one of the better trainers operating at Monmouth during the summer meet, and when he sends out a horse at 1-1 in a $75,000 stakes, the horse warrants serious respect.

Pace Analysis

Boardwalk Jack (3) at 2-1 from Eddie Owens Jr. is likely to be forwardly placed, and with Jorge Vargas Jr. in the irons, expect an aggressive early move to secure position. If Boardwalk Jack (3) and Wildncrazynight (1) both press the early pace, Cairo Surprise (5) could get an ideal stalking position and pounce in the stretch. Speaking (4), the second Owens runner, could add additional speed to the mix and further help the closers.

Key Contenders

Cairo Surprise (5) at 1-1 is the clear public choice and the horse around which all exotic wagering strategy must be built. Trained by Cathal Lynch with Pascacio Lopez in the irons, this horse likely carries the most impressive credentials in the field on the basis of the morning line alone. Lynch has been active and sharp at Monmouth this summer, and Cairo Surprise (5) from Post 5 in a seven-horse field has a workable draw. At even money, this is a horse you either use underneath to build value in exactas and trifectas, or you acknowledge as the single most likely winner and structure your tickets accordingly.

Boardwalk Jack (3) at 2-1 from Eddie Owens Jr. with Jorge Vargas Jr. is the most logical challenger. Owens runs a prolific NJ-bred operation at Monmouth and frequently has multiple horses in the same race, as evidenced by Speaking (4) also in this field. Boardwalk Jack (3) is the preferred Owens runner in this spot based on morning line favoritism. From Post 3, Vargas should be able to find a good position tracking the early pace.

Secondary Choices

Wildncrazynight (1) at 5-1 from Kelly Breen with Luis Rivera Jr. is a compelling price in a seven-horse stakes field. Breen and Rivera is one of the better trainer-jockey combinations in the mid-Atlantic region, and Wildncrazynight (1) drawing the rail in a dirt route could be a tactical advantage. If Rivera gets this horse out cleanly and tucks in near the front, the 5-1 price could represent genuine value in exactas.

St. Erling (7) at 6-1 from Joan Milne and C. Sutherland rounds out the logical secondary choices. The outside post is a disadvantage in a seven-horse dirt route at 1320 feet, but Milne occasionally has her horses peaking at the right moment in festival conditions.

Longshots

Grouch (2) at 10-1 from Jose Lozano Sanchez and Edwin Gonzalez is a significant price that bears at least modest consideration. Sanchez operates at the lower tier of the Monmouth training ranks but has scored at prices in restricted company before.

Speaking (4) at 10-1 is the second Owens runner and the barn's secondary hope. Owens may be using Speaking (4) as a pace foil to help Boardwalk Jack (3), making this horse's chances more suspect from a pure win perspective. At 10-1, Speaking (4) is best used in trifecta legs at minimum.

Boastfully Irish (6) at 15-1 from H. Graham Motion with Christian Maragh is the most intriguing longshot on paper. Motion is a Hall of Fame trainer who operates primarily at the major tracks, and having his name on a Monmouth NJ-bred stakes horse is worth noting. At 15-1, if Motion has prepared this horse specifically for today, Boastfully Irish (6) could deliver a barn-moving effort. Maragh is a capable rider with significant Saratoga and Grade I experience who brings quality to any mount.

Selections

Win: Cairo Surprise (5) Place: Boardwalk Jack (3) Show: Wildncrazynight (1)

Wagering Strategy: At 1-1, you cannot go win-heavy on Cairo Surprise (5) and generate meaningful return. The optimal strategy is to single Cairo Surprise (5) in the Pick 4 and Pick 5 sequences and use this race to build ticket structures around the second and third choices. In the exacta, wheel Cairo Surprise (5) on top over Boardwalk Jack (3), Wildncrazynight (1), and St. Erling (7). In the trifecta, key 5/3,1/1,3,7 with some coverage for Boastfully Irish (6) at the longshot price.

RACE 4 — Post (2:23)/1:23/12:23/11:23 — 1210f | D | S | Md Sp Wt | AON | Purse $51,250

A twelve-horse maiden special weight field for males at 1210 feet on the main track is a challenging puzzle. Large field maiden dirt sprints are notoriously difficult to handicap and frequently produce surprising outcomes. With twelve runners and no clear dominant favorite, this race is a prime candidate for exotic wagering using multiple contenders.

Pace Analysis

Twelve horses going a six-furlong sprint on the dirt guarantees a fast early pace scenario. Neela Da Blue (10) at 3-1 is the public choice and likely figures to be prominent early. Even Up (5) at 4-1 from Eddie Owens Jr. with Jorge Vargas Jr. should also be forwardly placed. Multiple speed horses in a large sprint field can set up a strong closer's move, and there is some closing ability within this group that could be rewarded if the early fractions are suitably fast.

Key Contenders

Neela Da Blue (10) at 3-1 from Kelly Breen with Pascacio Lopez is the morning line favorite. Breen training the favorite with Lopez aboard gives this horse a strong handler-rider combination. From Post 10 in a twelve-horse sprint, Neela Da Blue (10) will need to work back toward the inside early or accept a wide trip. Breen's horses in maiden sprints are generally fit on first asking or first return, and the 3-1 price reflects market confidence.

Even Up (5) at 4-1 from Eddie Owens Jr. with Jorge Vargas Jr. is positioned perfectly in Post 5 for a six-furlong sprint. Owens is one of the most productive trainers in the NJ-bred program and consistently has his horses ready at this stage. Vargas is an aggressive, tactical rider who handles sprint races well. This horse is the most logically positioned threat to the favorite.

Secondary Choices

Slickback (1) at 6-1 from Lauren Robson and Jomar Torres gets the rail in a twelve-horse sprint. The rail in a 1210-foot dirt sprint is not necessarily a penalty if the horse can break alertly and avoid traffic. At 6-1 with a clean shot up the rail, Slickback (1) carries some appeal.

Careless Navigator (9) at 6-1 from Eddie Owens Jr. with Charlie Marquez is the second Owens runner in this race. Having two runners at 4-1 and 6-1 suggests Owens has legitimate regard for both horses. Marquez is an active Monmouth rider who performs capably in sprint company.

Epic Blockage (8) at 8-1 from Charles Spina and C. Sutherland is a price to consider. Spina runs a large operation at Monmouth and occasionally produces sharp maiden sprinters at mid-range prices.

Longshots

Andonemorething (6) at 10-1 from Kim Einhorn with J.C. Ferrer could be worth a look at the price. Einhorn is not a high-volume trainer but can spot horses well in maiden company.

Tactfully Wild (4) at 10-1 from Ben Perkins Jr. with Jose Antonio Gomez is another mid-tier price in a race packed with them. Perkins conditions solid NJ-bred stock and this horse's Post 4 is a workable draw.

Sun Tan Man (2) at 10-1 from Andrew Simoff and Eliseo Ruiz is a longer shot from a less prominent barn. At 10-1 in a maiden sprint, Sun Tan Man (2) belongs in wide-spread trifecta tickets.

It's Prime Time (12) at 10-1 from Anthony Margotta Jr. and Ramon Moya closes from the extreme outside. Large field sprints can produce wide, energy-draining trips from outside posts, making it's prime time's task more difficult.

Control The Time (7) at 10-1 from Pompeyo Gomez and Jorge Luis Gonzalez is a mid-market longshot without strong trainer credentials that would elevate confidence at the price.

Soy Dominicano (11) at 30-1 and Thatain'tnowaytogo (3) at 30-1 are the longest prices in the field and belong in spread trifecta legs at minimum investment only.

Selections

Win: Even Up (5) Place: Neela Da Blue (10) Show: Slickback (1)

Wagering Strategy: Large field maiden sprints reward spreading in the exotics. Use Even Up (5) and Neela Da Blue (10) as your primary win investments. Build exactas using 5/10 and 10/5 and include Slickback (1), Careless Navigator (9), and Epic Blockage (8) in trifecta legs underneath. A trifecta key using 5 over 10,1,9 over 10,1,8,9 is the recommended structure.

RACE 5 — Post (2:49)/1:49/12:49/11:49 — 1870f | D | N | CHesseH100k | BUN | Purse $100,000

The Chesapeake Handicap at $100,000 is the premier event on today's card. Seven NJ-bred horses who have never won a handicap race contest this 1870-foot main track route, and the field is headlined by the 2-1 morning line favorite Happy Offering (6) from the Charles Spina barn.

Pace Analysis

Happy Offering (6) at 2-1 and Riding Pretty (5) at 3-1 figure to be the primary pace setters in this race. J J Zo Zo (1) at 4-1 with Charlie Marquez may press the leaders from the inside. If two or three horses press honest fractions through the first half-mile of a 1870-foot handicap, the closers will get their opportunity. Spiritinthenight (2) at 5-1 and Wildncrazyguy (7) at 10-1 are the most obvious closers in the field and could benefit if the pace collapses the front runners.

Key Contenders

Happy Offering (6) at 2-1 is the most heavily backed horse on the card today and deserves singular respect. Spina training with Pascacio Lopez in the irons gives this horse a capable handler for a two-turn route. Post 6 in a seven-horse field is a workable draw that should allow Lopez to find a comfortable spot. The 2-1 price in a seven-horse stakes race suggests the market has strong conviction about this horse's chances. When a short price is the consensus in a small field stakes, the value play becomes looking for a horse that can beat the favorite rather than trying to play against the chalk.

Riding Pretty (5) at 3-1 from Eddie Owens Jr. with Luis Rivera Jr. is the most logical rival. Owens is one of the most accomplished trainers in the NJ-bred ranks at Monmouth and having Rivera aboard this horse gives Riding Pretty (5) the best jockey in the colony. From Post 5, Rivera should be able to dictate terms early or sit just off the pace and pounce in the stretch. This is the horse most capable of upsetting Happy Offering (6).

Secondary Choices

J J Zo Zo (1) at 4-1 from Cesar Alcala and Charlie Marquez draws the rail in a 1870-foot route. In a two-turn race, the rail is a significant ground-saving advantage, and Marquez is experienced enough to exploit the position. Alcala conditions a solid NJ-bred string at Monmouth, and J J Zo Zo (1) at 4-1 could be the overlay play if Happy Offering (6) and Riding Pretty (5) go at each other hard in the early stages.

Spiritinthenight (2) at 5-1 from Anthony Margotta Jr. and Ramon Moya is a closer who needs the pace to develop honestly. In a seven-horse field where the two top choices are both speed-favoring horses, Spiritinthenight (2) profiles as the natural beneficiary of a pace duel. At 5-1, this horse offers the best price-to-probability ratio among the contenders.

Longshots

Forever Chocolate (4) at 8-1 from Rory Huston and J.C. Ferrer is a mid-range price from a solid barn. Huston has won at this level before in the NJ-bred stakes ranks and Forever Chocolate (4) at 8-1 is worth a token inclusion in trifecta tickets.

Wildncrazyguy (7) at 10-1 from Anthony Lucas and Jacqueline Davis is an interesting breeding exercise for the two-turn route. At 10-1, Wildncrazyguy (7) is best deployed as a trifecta inclusion rather than a win play.

Fully Committed (3) at 20-1 from the Angel Castillo Jr. barn with A. Castillo aboard is the longest price in the field. The trainer-rider combination of a trainer using family as jockey in a $100,000 stakes is not a profile that inspires confidence in a competitive spot. Best left off primary tickets.

Selections

Win: Happy Offering (6) Place: Riding Pretty (5) Show: J J Zo Zo (1)

Wagering Strategy: The feature race of the day is structured for a heavy chalk single in the Pick 4 and multi-race sequences. Use Happy Offering (6) on top of exactas with Riding Pretty (5), J J Zo Zo (1), and Spiritinthenight (2). If playing win tickets, the 2-1 return is modest but the probability justifies a straight win bet if the favorite's form merits confidence. An exacta using 6/5, 6/1, and 6/2 covers the three most logical outcomes at modest cost.

RACE 6 — Post (3:18)/2:18/1:18/12:18 — 1320f | D | AO | OClm 15000n1x | BUM | Purse $60,000

An eleven-horse optional claiming field for fillies and mares goes 1320 feet on the main dirt. This is the largest field of the day and features a wide range of talents, making it another prime exotic wagering target. The $60,000 purse is elevated from the standard $51,875 seen in Race 1, reflecting the 1320-foot distance on the dirt being a more prominent route condition.

Pace Analysis

Stormy Girl (3) at 4-1 from Owens and Vargas figures to be forwardly positioned, as does Allenhurst (6) at 3-1. Cool Spite (2) at 5-1 and Last Flag Flying (5) at 5-1 from the Spina barn could add additional pace pressure. An eleven-horse field with this much front-running blood could set up a genuine pace meltdown, which would benefit the closers. Noon Time Tide (9) at 12-1 and She's A Bombshell (7) at 10-1 are the most likely closers in the group.

Key Contenders

Allenhurst (6) at 3-1 from Angel Castillo Jr. with A. Castillo aboard is the morning line favorite. Despite the trainer-jockey family combination noted above, Allenhurst (6) draws reasonable favoritism at 3-1 in this optional claimer and deserves respect as the pace-setter or pressurer in this eleven-horse field. Post 6 in a route is a workable draw.

Stormy Girl (3) at 4-1 from Eddie Owens Jr. with Jorge Vargas Jr. is the most logical challenger. The Owens-Vargas combination has been productive at Monmouth this summer and Stormy Girl (3) from Post 3 with a ground-saving draw has the tactical profile for a 1320-foot dirt route.

Magical Cry (4) at 4-1 from Cathal Lynch and Edwin Gonzalez is a co-second choice at 4-1. Lynch sharpened Cairo Surprise (5) for the earlier stakes race today, and having a second runner at 4-1 in the immediately following race suggests Lynch's barn is firing on multiple cylinders today. Magical Cry (4) from Post 4 is another ground-saving draw and Lynch's tactical preparation is worth significant respect.

Secondary Choices

Cool Spite (2) at 5-1 from Charles Spina and C. Sutherland is one of two Spina runners in this field. Sutherland is a capable Monmouth rider and Cool Spite (2) from Post 2 on the dirt route has a ground-saving advantage if she breaks cleanly.

Last Flag Flying (5) at 5-1 is the second Spina runner with J.C. Ferrer. Spina having two runners in the same race is a pattern seen throughout today's card, and the question is always which runner is the stable's primary hope. The morning line split between 5-1 and 5-1 for both Spina horses suggests the barn itself may not have a strong preference, making the Spina double potentially confusing to handicap.

She's A Bombshell (7) at 10-1 from Anthony Margotta Jr. and Pascacio Lopez is a closer at a price. Lopez being aboard after riding several earlier races gives this horse a leading jockey who should be in rhythm for the afternoon card.

Longshots

Noon Time Tide (9) at 12-1 from Eddie Owens Jr. and Christian Maragh gives Owens a third runner in this field alongside Stormy Girl (3) and other Owens horses throughout the card. Maragh is a quality rider who could help Noon Time Tide (9) close ground late.

La Pluma (10) at 15-1 from Mike Dini and Francisco Martinez is a longshot in a crowded field with little to distinguish it at the price.

Purple Lu Lu (1) at 30-1 from JoAnn Bertone and Kendry Rivera gets the rail but the extreme long price suggests this horse is outclassed or facing fitness questions. At 30-1, Purple Lu Lu (1) belongs only in wide-spread trifecta tickets at minimum.

Dee Dee Six (8) at 30-1 from Bertone again with Dalila Rivera and Charlize Chub (11) at 30-1 from Tony Wilson and Luis Ocasio are the bottom of the market. Charlize Chub (11) draws the outside post in an eleven-horse route, compounding the difficulty. Both are trifecta fillers at best.

Selections

Win: Magical Cry (4) Place: Stormy Girl (3) Show: Allenhurst (6)

Wagering Strategy: Magical Cry (4) at 4-1 offers the best combination of trainer angle, morning line price, and tactical positioning in this field. Box Magical Cry (4), Stormy Girl (3), and Allenhurst (6) in exactas. Include Cool Spite (2) and She's A Bombshell (7) in trifecta legs for coverage in a large, unpredictable field.

RACE 7 — Post (3:49)/2:49/1:49/12:49 — 1870f | T | AO | OClm 15000n1x | BUN | Purse $51,875

The largest field of the day is also the most complex race on the card. Fourteen horses contest a one-mile-plus optional claiming event on the turf, and the size of the field creates both opportunity and difficulty for the handicapper. Long turf routes with large fields tend to create chaotic early pace scenarios that reward horses sitting off the pace in a comfortable stalking position. The 1870-foot turf distance at Monmouth is a genuine test of stamina, and breeding for the distance becomes an important factor.

Pace Analysis

Smuggler's Gold (2) at 3-1 from Cathal Lynch with Vincent Cheminaud is the morning line favorite and a horse that likely has the turf credentials to justify that price. Giant James (1) at 4-1, Wild Jaime (4) at 4-1, and See The Truth (5) at 4-1 are all clustered at identical co-second prices, making the pace shape genuinely difficult to project. In a fourteen-horse turf field going one mile plus, the early pace is often surprisingly slow as jockeys conserve horses, and then the race develops into a bunched field until the stretch turn. Horses who sit mid-pack and make a smooth, sustained move into the stretch typically prevail in these situations.

Key Contenders

Smuggler's Gold (2) at 3-1 from Cathal Lynch with Vincent Cheminaud is the clear morning line choice. Cheminaud is a French-born rider with European turf experience who excels in exactly this type of longer turf route scenario. Lynch having won with Cairo Surprise (5) potentially earlier in the day gives his barn momentum, and if Smuggler's Gold (2) has similar credentials, this horse is worth strong respect. From Post 2 on the turf, Cheminaud can secure a ground-saving position early in a large field.

Giant James (1) at 4-1 from Holly Harris with C. Sutherland draws the rail in a fourteen-horse turf field. In a long turf route with a large field, the rail can be a substantial advantage for a horse with tactical speed. Sutherland knows the Monmouth turf course well, and Harris has shown the ability to produce fit horses in optional claiming turf company.

Gaelicheartofgold (13) at 5-1 from Wayne Potts and Pascacio Lopez is another horse drawing strong attention. Post 13 in a fourteen-horse turf field is an extreme disadvantage, but Potts has produced effective turf horses at Monmouth and Lopez is one of the sharpest tactical riders in the colony. If Lopez can get this horse settled and avoid burning energy from the wide post, Gaelicheartofgold (13) could come from the clouds in the stretch.

Secondary Choices

See The Truth (5) at 4-1 from Kelly Breen and Pascacio Lopez. Note that Lopez appears to be assigned to both Gaelicheartofgold (13) and See The Truth (5) per the race card, which may indicate a jockey change has been made or will be made before post time. Breen is a sharp trainer and See The Truth (5) from Post 5 with a mid-field draw on a turf course is a workable position for a long route.

Wild Jaime (4) at 4-1 from Wayne Potts and Luis Rivera Jr. gives Potts two runners at identical morning line prices in this race. Rivera being on Wild Jaime (4) rather than Gaelicheartofgold (13) is a meaningful signal. Rivera as the colony's leading rider often draws to the barn's primary hope, and if Potts had a preference, the fact that Rivera is on Wild Jaime (4) at Post 4 with the better draw makes this horse worthy of consideration alongside Smuggler's Gold (2).

Frankie G (3) at 5-1 from Russell Cash and Ramon Moya is a price player's option. Cash is a less prominent Monmouth conditioner, but Frankie G (3) from Post 3 with a ground-saving draw on the turf has positional appeal in a large field.

Electric Eel (12) at 8-1 from Anthony Margotta Jr. and Luis Rivera Jr. creates confusion again if Rivera is also listed on Wild Jaime (4). Multiple jockey listings for Rivera in this race suggest the official assignment should be confirmed before wagering. At 8-1, Electric Eel (12) is a legitimate price play if Rivera does take this mount.

Clever Charlie (14) at 8-1 from Kelly Breen and Melissa Iorio comes from the extreme outside post in a fourteen-horse turf field. Breen sending two runners into this race and using Iorio on the secondary runner is consistent with the pattern seen elsewhere on the card. At 8-1 from Post 14, Clever Charlie (14) faces a genuine post-position penalty.

Longshots

Just Comply (8) at 12-1 from Mike Dini and Francisco Martinez, Perrotto (9) at 15-1 from Chelsea Sims Rabadan and Charlie Marquez, and Ohana Empire (10) at 15-1 from James Frangella Jr. and J.C. Ferrer are all mid-to-deep prices that fill the exotics at minimum cost.

Vesparo (7) at 20-1 from Rory Huston and Jomar Torres and Lecanto (6) at 30-1 from Cesareo Marquez and Luis Ocasio are deep prices unlikely to factor in the outcome.

Kaz Sweet Heist (11) at 30-1 from Riquelvis Grullon and P.L. Cotto Jr. is the longest viable price and belongs in superfecta structures only.

Selections

Win: Smuggler's Gold (2) Place: Wild Jaime (4) Show: Giant James (1)

Wagering Strategy: In a fourteen-horse turf route, the exotics are where the value lies. Single Smuggler's Gold (2) on top in exactas, with Wild Jaime (4), Giant James (1), Gaelicheartofgold (13), and Frankie G (3) completing the ticket. A superfecta using 2/4,1/1,4,13/1,3,4,5,13 is a recommended structure for deeper exotic players. The large field creates trifecta overlays that make the $0.50 trifecta box of the top four contenders a low-cost, high-return opportunity.

RACE 8 — Post (4:22)/3:22/2:22/1:22 — 1320f | D | N | ElvnNrthHB75k | BUM | Purse $75,000

The Eleven North Handicap closes out the stakes portion of today's card with a $75,000 purse for fillies and mares going 1320 feet on the dirt. Nine runners contest this spot, and Summer's Comin (7) at 2-1 is the morning line favorite from the Mike Dini barn.

Pace Analysis

Summer's Comin (7) at 2-1 is likely to be forwardly placed, and La Resolana (2) at 3-1 figures to press or lead as well. Jewel Of The Ocean (8) at 4-1 from Charles Spina and Charlie Marquez could be in the mid-pack. If Summer's Comin (7) and La Resolana (2) go at each other early in a nine-horse stakes field, the closers get a meaningful opportunity. Rock The Rainbow (9) at 8-1 from Eddie Owens Jr. and Jose Antonio Gomez figures as the most natural closer in this field.

Key Contenders

Summer's Comin (7) at 2-1 from Mike Dini and Francisco Martinez is the morning line favorite. Dini operates a respectable NJ-bred barn at Monmouth and Summer's Comin (7) carries substantial public support at 2-1. From Post 7 in a nine-horse field, Martinez will need to find a reasonable position in the early stages to maintain this horse's tactical advantage. The 2-1 morning line price in a $75,000 stakes for fillies and mares signals that this horse has clear superiority on class or recent form relative to her rivals.

La Resolana (2) at 3-1 from Jose Lozano Sanchez and Pascacio Lopez is the closest market rival. Sanchez has shown the ability to prepare horses for stakes conditions in the NJ-bred division, and having Lopez aboard is a significant rider upgrade. From Post 2, Lopez can sit just off the pace or press Summer's Comin (7) and put pressure on the favorite throughout the route.

Secondary Choices

Jewel Of The Ocean (8) at 4-1 from Charles Spina and Charlie Marquez offers a price play at fourth choice. Spina has been active throughout today's card and Jewel Of The Ocean (8) in a $75,000 fillies and mares stakes is this barn's most prominent stakes entry of the day. Marquez is a capable stakes rider who has handled Monmouth stakes mounts competently.

My Two Sophia's (3) at 6-1 from Panagiotis Synnefias and Luis Rivera Jr. gets the colony's leading jockey on a 6-1 morning line shot. Rivera aboard a 6-1 horse in a nine-horse stakes field is the kind of value angle that deserves attention. Synnefias is not a high-profile trainer but Rivera does not typically choose weak assignments in stakes races.

Howler (1) at 6-1 from Cathal Lynch and Vincent Cheminaud gets the rail in a nine-horse dirt route. Lynch is the most active stakes trainer on today's card and Howler (1) with Cheminaud from the rail could be a live tactical play. If Lynch fires one more sharp performance from his barn, Howler (1) at 6-1 could be the value play of the stakes races.

Longshots

Mia's Crusade (4) at 8-1 from Charles Spina and Edwin Gonzalez gives Spina two runners in this race alongside Jewel Of The Ocean (8). Gonzalez is an active Monmouth rider and Mia's Crusade (4) from Post 4 with a reasonable draw is a mid-range price.

Rock The Rainbow (9) at 8-1 from Eddie Owens Jr. and Jose Antonio Gomez is a closer from the outside post in a stakes route. Owens trains a large NJ-bred string and Rock The Rainbow (9) at 8-1 could be the beneficiary if the pace collapses.

Lidia Rose (6) at 12-1 from Rory Huston and Ramon Moya is a mid-range price from a solid barn. At 12-1, this horse belongs in trifecta legs but does not inspire win confidence in stakes company.

Salt And Light (5) at 30-1 from Holly Harris and C. Sutherland is the longest price in the field. The 30-1 morning line in a nine-horse field indicates minimal competitive expectation.

Selections

Win: Summer's Comin (7) Place: La Resolana (2) Show: Howler (1)

Wagering Strategy: Use Summer's Comin (7) as the primary win investment but do not single in multi-race sequences given the presence of La Resolana (2) and Howler (1) as legitimate threats. Exacta 7/2, 7/1, and 7/3 covers the logical outcomes. A trifecta key using 7/2,1,8/1,2,3,8 provides manageable cost with solid coverage.

RACE 9 — Post (4:50)/3:50/2:50/1:50 — 1760f | T | S | Md Sp Wt | BUN | Purse $50,000

The finale on New Jersey Thoroughbred Festival Day is a maiden special weight for colts and geldings going 1760 feet on the turf. Nine runners close out the card, with Azario (6) at 2-1 carrying the favorite's responsibility and Howitzer (5) at 3-1 as the morning line second choice.

Pace Analysis

Howitzer (5) at 3-1 from Timothy Hills and Christian Maragh projects as a likely pace-setter or stalker in this turf route. Azario (6) at 2-1 from Victor Carrasco Jr. and Pascacio Lopez may be more of a sit-and-kick type. In The Wake (2) at 8-1 and I'm Going Cruising (7) at 6-1 could also factor early. A nine-horse turf maiden route often features a slow early pace as riders are cautious, setting up an accelerating stretch run.

Key Contenders

Azario (6) at 2-1 is the morning line favorite from Victor Carrasco Jr. and Pascacio Lopez. Lopez on the chalk to close the card at 2-1 in a turf maiden is a strong trainer-jockey signal. Carrasco Jr. is an active Monmouth-based conditioner and having Lopez on his top maiden suggests significant confidence in this horse's fitness and preparation. From Post 6 in a nine-horse turf route, Lopez will have options and the ability to time his move perfectly on a horse that likely has natural turf ability.

Howitzer (5) at 3-1 from Timothy Hills and Christian Maragh is the closest rival. Hills is a trainer known for developing turf runners, and Howitzer (5) from Post 5 with Maragh gives this horse an experienced turf jockey. The two-horse battle for favoritism between Howitzer (5) and Azario (6) suggests the market has genuine respect for both, and the race likely comes down to these two in the stretch.

Secondary Choices

I'm Going Cruising (7) at 6-1 from Joseph Mazza and C. Sutherland is an interesting price in a turf maiden. Mazza is a Monmouth-based conditioner and SUTHERLAND's experience on the grass course gives this horse some appeal. From Post 7 with a mid-field outside draw, I'm Going Cruising (7) will need to find cover and a clear run in the stretch.

In The Wake (2) at 8-1 from Robert Paterno and Jose Antonio Gomez draws Post 2 with a ground-saving position. In a nine-horse turf maiden route, a horse sitting in the second post with Gomez riding conservatively could get a dream trip along the rail. At 8-1, In The Wake (2) is the best price value in this race.

Giant Groove (9) at 10-1 from Rory Huston and J.C. Ferrer draws the outside post. Huston conditions solid turf horses in the NJ-bred program and Giant Groove (9) at 10-1 could close from off the pace if the early fractions develop favorably.

Longshots

Foxiesbaymallow (4) at 8-1 from Tony Wilson and Edwin Gonzalez is a mid-range price in what becomes a competitive maiden turf route. Wilson is a steady Monmouth conditioner and at 8-1, Foxiesbaymallow (4) from Post 4 has a workable draw.

Rhythm Man (1) at 12-1 from Cesareo Marquez and Luis Ocasio draws the rail from the one-hole. Rail advantage in a turf route is genuine, and Rhythm Man (1) at 12-1 could be a sneaky inclusion in trifectas.

Pretty Sixxy (3) at 12-1 from Riquelvis Grullon and Noel Herman is a significant price in maiden company and belongs in wide trifecta structures.

One Bad Habit (8) at 15-1 from Rachael Keithan and Luis Rivera Jr. is the most interesting longshot on the closer. Rivera taking a 15-1 mount in a nine-horse turf maiden is unusual for the colony's leading rider and deserves scrutiny. Rivera typically rides quality mounts, and if he has accepted this assignment voluntarily in the card's finale, there may be something to like about One Bad Habit (8) at 15-1 that is not reflected in the morning line. This is the most compelling longshot play on today's card.

Selections

Win: Azario (6) Place: Howitzer (5) Show: One Bad Habit (8)

Wagering Strategy: Use Azario (6) and Howitzer (5) as the primary exacta combination. At 2-1 and 3-1, the exacta return is modest, making the trifecta the primary wagering vehicle for this race. Structure the trifecta using 6/5/1,2,7,8 to capture the most logical finishing orders. One Bad Habit (8) at 15-1 with Rivera is the value bet of the race and a small win investment at 15-1 with Rivera up is justified by the jockey angle alone.

Jockey Notes and Insights

Luis Rivera Jr. is the leading rider at the Monmouth Park summer meet and today he is active with multiple mounts throughout the nine-race card. His assignments include Red Head Italian (2) in Race 1, Why Me Lord (6) in Race 2, Wildncrazynight (1) in Race 3, Riding Pretty (5) in Race 5, Wild Jaime (4) in Race 7, and One Bad Habit (8) in Race 9. Rivera's ability to rate horses in routes and manufacture pace in sprints makes him effective across all race conditions. On New Jersey Thoroughbred Festival Day with all nine races restricted to NJ-breds, Rivera's familiarity with these horses and their connections gives him a significant advantage.

Pascacio Lopez is the busiest rider on today's card with mounts in virtually every race. His key assignments include One Fine Wine (3) in Race 1, Johnny Bay Goode (3) in Race 2, Cairo Surprise (5) in Race 3, Neela Da Blue (10) in Race 4, Happy Offering (6) in Race 5, La Resolana (2) in Race 8, and Azario (6) in Race 9. Lopez's workload today reflects his status as one of the most in-demand riders at Monmouth and suggests multiple trainers have confidence in his ability to deliver results with their primary horses on a major festival day.

Christian Maragh brings a higher-level experience than most Monmouth regulars, with significant Graded stakes experience at Saratoga and other major tracks. His mounts today include Slick Merlin (1) in Race 1, Thatain'tnowaytogo (3) in Race 4, Boastfully Irish (6) in Race 3, Noon Time Tide (9) in Race 6, and Howitzer (5) in Race 9. Maragh on the 3-1 second choice Howitzer (5) in the finale is worth particular attention given his turf pedigree.

Vincent Cheminaud on Smuggler's Gold (2) in Race 7 and Howler (1) in Race 8 is the most intriguing specialist jockey on today's card. Cheminaud's European background and comfort with turf courses in large fields gives Smuggler's Gold (2) a meaningful edge in the fourteen-horse turf route. His presence on two Cathal Lynch runners also signals that Lynch has specifically sought out a specialist turf rider for his top mounts today.

Charlie Marquez is active throughout the card with stakes and optional claiming assignments, including J J Zo Zo (1) in Race 5 and Jewel Of The Ocean (8) in Race 8. Marquez is a workmanlike Monmouth rider who performs steadily in dirt route assignments.

Jorge Vargas Jr. is the primary Owens-barn jockey, riding Boardwalk Jack (3) in Race 3, Even Up (5) in Race 4, and Stormy Girl (3) in Race 6. In a day where Owens has multiple runners across multiple races, Vargas is clearly the conditioner's preferred partner and his assignments can be read as the Owens barn's primary intentions in each respective race.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Eddie Owens Jr. is the most active trainer on today's card, with runners in virtually every race and often multiple runners in the same race. His key stable runners today include Boardwalk Jack (3) in Race 3, Even Up (5) in Race 4, Riding Pretty (5) in Race 5, Stormy Girl (3) in Race 6, and Rock The Rainbow (9) in Race 8. In races where Owens has multiple runners, his preference is signaled by the more prominent jockey: Jorge Vargas Jr. is typically his first call. Owens's volume and success rate in NJ-bred conditions at Monmouth make him impossible to fade entirely in any race he enters.

Cathal Lynch is arguably the sharpest trainer on the card when considering stakes quality. His runners include Cairo Surprise (5) in Race 3 at 1-1, Magical Cry (4) in Race 6 at 4-1, Smuggler's Gold (2) in Race 7 at 3-1, and Howler (1) in Race 8 at 6-1. The decision to use Vincent Cheminaud on both Smuggler's Gold (2) and Howler (1) reflects Lynch's strategic approach to jockey selection and his serious intentions with both horses. Lynch's barn having two morning-line favorites or near-favorites on the same card is a strong indicator that this is his strongest day of the summer meet.

Kelly Breen is another quality conditioner with significant runners today, including Red Head Italian (2) in Race 1 at 3-1, Wildncrazynight (1) in Race 3 at 5-1, Neela Da Blue (10) in Race 4 at 3-1, See The Truth (5) in Race 7 at 4-1, and Clever Charlie (14) in Race 7 at 8-1. Breen's runners are consistently well-prepared and his trainer percentage with well-bet horses in restricted New Jersey company is among the best on the grounds.

Charles Spina is the highest-volume trainer on today's card by number of entries, running horses in Race 1 (two runners), Race 5, Race 6 (two runners), Race 7, and Race 8 (two runners). Spina's dual entries in the same race throughout the card can create confusion, but his barn's sheer volume means individual winners are a consistent part of his seasonal output. Watch for Spina runners to outrun morning line odds in spots where he has allocated a quality jockey.

Wayne Potts saddles two runners in Race 7 at identical 4-1 prices, with Rivera on Wild Jaime (4) and Lopez on Gaelicheartofgold (13). The split of the two leading jockeys across both Potts runners in Race 7 suggests the trainer genuinely does not know which horse is better and is hedging his rider assignments accordingly. This makes the Potts entries a box play in exotics rather than a directional bet.

Anthony Margotta Jr. is an active conditioner whose runners appear throughout the card. His most notable assignment is Spiritinthenight (2) in Race 5 at 5-1, which is his most prominent stakes entry of the day.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The best wagering strategy for New Jersey Thoroughbred Festival Day at Monmouth Park is built around the Lynch barn's performance throughout the card. If Cairo Surprise (5) delivers in Race 3 at 1-1, Lynch winning a stakes race early in the card gives the barn momentum heading into Smuggler's Gold (2) in Race 7 at 3-1, Magical Cry (4) in Race 6 at 4-1, and Howler (1) in Race 8 at 6-1. A Lynch-focused vertical betting approach through Races 3, 6, 7, and 8 provides a logical through-line for multi-race sequence players.

The Pick 4 covering Races 6, 7, 8, and 9 is the primary exotic wagering target for this card. A suggested Pick 4 ticket uses Magical Cry (4) and Allenhurst (6) in Race 6, Smuggler's Gold (2) and Wild Jaime (4) in Race 7, Summer's Comin (7) and Howler (1) in Race 8, and Azario (6) in Race 9. This ticket uses four horses in the first two legs with a single in the finale and provides meaningful coverage at a manageable cost.

The single best value play on the card is One Bad Habit (8) in Race 9 at 15-1 with Luis Rivera Jr. in the irons. Rivera does not typically accept 15-1 maiden mounts in a nine-horse turf field on a card where he could be on other horses. The jockey angle is the primary driver of this recommendation. A small win bet on One Bad Habit (8) and inclusion in exactas and trifectas beneath Azario (6) and Howitzer (5) provides meaningful payout potential at minimal cost.

The most actionable exacta value play on the card is the Race 8 Eleven North Handicap exacta using Summer's Comin (7) and Howler (1) at 2-1 and 6-1 respectively. If Howler (1) fires under Cheminaud with Lynch's preparation, the 2-1 and 6-1 exacta return is substantial compared to the 2-1 and 3-1 exacta pairing with La Resolana (2).

For players who prefer trifecta wagering in larger fields, Race 6 and Race 7 present the best opportunities given their field sizes of eleven and fourteen horses respectively. In both races, keying the top two choices on top and spreading wide in the third slot is the recommended approach. The Race 7 fourteen-horse turf route trifecta with Smuggler's Gold (2) and Giant James (1) on top and a wide spread underneath could produce a triple-digit payout if a mid-range price like Frankie G (3), See The Truth (5), or Gaelicheartofgold (13) fills the third slot.

The daily double pairing Race 8 and Race 9 using Summer's Comin (7) with Howler (1) in Race 8 and Azario (6) with One Bad Habit (8) in Race 9 creates a four-combination daily double that covers the most likely outcomes while including the value longshot. At a base cost of $2 per combination, this is an eight-dollar investment with meaningful return potential if One Bad Habit (8) runs to the jockey angle.

Before wagering, check the Latest Race Scratches, Changes, and Conditions post for any last-minute scratches or race changes.


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