Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Belmont, November 12, 2026


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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets (every race where one of our AI algorithms agrees with the expert consensus); Insider adds Algo 2 and the sharper Best Bets list, only the races where Algo 2 agrees with the experts; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) at Belmont — win rate

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 285 graded races at Belmont, 2026-09-18 to 2026-11-08.

0%11%22%33%43%Our top pick: 34.7% from 285 racesOur top pick34.7%Morning-line favourite: 30.9% from 285 racesMorning-line favourite30.9%

The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick34.7%285
Morning-line favourite30.9%285
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $59,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3Stream It (8/5)
Place:8Senior Lender (4/1)
Show:6Blue Mountains (5/1)
Other contenders:7Determinedfinisher (5/1), 5Gordy (6/1), 2Sorrentino (8/1)
Rest of field:1Asked And Answered (12/1), 4Enticed Master (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 386752
🎯 Longshots: 37128654
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #8, #6, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
◆ Strong spot — an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:8Tap Rules (9/5)
Place:2Term Premium (2/1)
Show:5Valentine Crusader (4/1)
Other contenders:3Galicat (6/1), 6Kaz Toro (12/1), 1Lombardo (12/1)
Rest of field:7Mcrye (15/1), 4Mr Dan (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 825361
🎯 Longshots: 82531674
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #2, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Turf · Starter Allowance · Purse $65,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:2Salt Spartan (6/5)
Place:6Coach Case (9/2)
Show:3Diliello (4/1)
Other contenders:5Smilensaycheese (10/1), 7Blame It On K J (6/1), 4Manor Park (12/1)
Rest of field:1Maximum Heat (15/1), 8Solo Empire (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 263754
🎯 Longshots: 25614378
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 1/2 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:3Blazing Beauty (5/2)
Place:4Rockabye (9/2)
Show:6Aerial Affair (4/1)
Other contenders:8Shared Ambition (5/1), 1Ready Set Roll (8/1), 9Harpist (6/1)
Rest of field:2Saintly Villain (12/1), 7Mariner (15/1), 5Aneki (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 346819
🎯 Longshots: 389416275
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #6, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $35,000
Win:5Unbroken Chain (5/2)
Place:1Kid Billy (4/1)
Show:2Disarmed (9/2)
Other contenders:4Screaming Uncle (4/1), 3Tenebris (6/1), 7Without Pretence (8/1)
Rest of field:6Neuschwanstein (10/1), 8Bootleg Runner (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 512437
🎯 Longshots: 51762438
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Ganderella (9/5)
Place:3Zap That Ghost (4/1)
Show:1Take Charge Smarty (7/2)
Other contenders:4Vicked (5/2), 7Alesiamae (10/1), 5Mighty Miss (15/1)
Rest of field:8Run Flat (30/1), 2City War (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 643175
🎯 Longshots: 61437528
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 1/4 Miles · Inner Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $105,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Stand The Rain (5/2)
Place:6Consensus View (3/1)
Show:2Alibi (4/1)
Other contenders:7Tiz The Lady (6/1), 5Abigail (8/1)
Rest of field:3Toes (7/2), 1Bobby M's Girl (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 462375
🎯 Longshots: 4652173
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #2, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $37,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Sociably Johnny (3/1)
Place:2Whitby (9/2)
Show:4Supreme Good (6/1)
Other contenders:8Monte Avi (9/2), 9The Obliterator (6/1), 3Corvus (8/1)
Rest of field:5Resilient Hero (8/1), 7Lucky Dragon (10/1), 6Good Bali (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 124893
🎯 Longshots: 135672984
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #4, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) at Belmont — win rate vs the experts

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 239 graded races at Belmont, 2026-09-18 to 2026-11-08.

0%10%20%30%40%Our top pick: 32.2% from 239 racesOur top pick32.2%Expert consensus pick: 27.2% from 239 racesExpert consensus pick27.2%

The consensus is the weighted top pick of 25+ published handicappers. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick32.2%239
Expert consensus pick27.2%239
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $59,000
Win:3Stream It (8/5) 34% · fair 2-1
Place:6Blue Mountains (5/1) 19% · fair 9-2
Show:8Senior Lender (4/1) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -42%
Other contenders:2Sorrentino (8/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 5Gordy (6/1) 11% · fair 8-1, 1Asked And Answered (12/1) 6% · fair 33-2 underlay -26%
Rest of field:7Determinedfinisher (5/1) 5% · fair 19-1 underlay -74%, 4Enticed Master (30/1) 1% · fair 121-1 underlay -75%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Stream It — 33.8% win probability, morning line 1.6/1Stream It33.8% ◀Blue Mountains — 19.0% win probability, morning line 5/1Blue Mountains19.0%Senior Lender — 12.6% win probability, morning line 4/1Senior Lender12.6%Sorrentino — 11.7% win probability, morning line 8/1Sorrentino11.7%Gordy — 11.3% win probability, morning line 6/1Gordy11.3%Asked And Answered — 5.8% win probability, morning line 12/1Asked And Answered5.8%Determinedfinisher — 5.0% win probability, morning line 5/1Determinedfinisher5.0%Enticed Master — 0.8% win probability, morning line 30/1Enticed Master0.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Stream It33.8%1.6/1
Blue Mountains19.0%5/1
Senior Lender12.6%4/1
Sorrentino11.7%8/1
Gordy11.3%6/1
Asked And Answered5.8%12/1
Determinedfinisher5.0%5/1
Enticed Master0.8%30/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherStream It: model 33.8% vs market 30.0% (+3.8 points)Stream It+3.8Blue Mountains: model 19.0% vs market 13.0% (+6.0 points)Blue Mountains+6.0Senior Lender: model 12.6% vs market 15.6% (-3.0 points)Senior Lender-3.0Sorrentino: model 11.7% vs market 8.7% (+3.1 points)Sorrentino+3.1Gordy: model 11.3% vs market 11.2% (+0.2 points)Gordy+0.2Asked And Answered: model 5.8% vs market 6.0% (-0.2 points)Asked And Answered-0.2Determinedfinisher: model 5.0% vs market 13.0% (-8.0 points)Determinedfinisher-8.0Enticed Master: model 0.8% vs market 2.5% (-1.7 points)Enticed Master-1.7

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Stream It33.8%30.0%+3.8
Blue Mountains19.0%13.0%+6.0
Senior Lender12.6%15.6%-3.0
Sorrentino11.7%8.7%+3.1
Gordy11.3%11.2%+0.2
Asked And Answered5.8%6.0%-0.2
Determinedfinisher5.0%13.0%-8.0
Enticed Master0.8%2.5%-1.7
🌧️ Off-track: 368572
🎯 Longshots: 37128654
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #8, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:8Tap Rules (9/5) 48% · fair 1-1 overlay +63%
Place:5Valentine Crusader (4/1) 21% · fair 7-2
Show:2Term Premium (2/1) 16% · fair 11-2 underlay -63%
Other contenders:3Galicat (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 1Lombardo (12/1) 2% · fair 56-1 underlay -79%, 6Kaz Toro (12/1) 1% · fair 102-1 underlay -88%
Rest of field:7Mcrye (15/1) 1% · fair 141-1 underlay -89%, 4Mr Dan (30/1) 0% · fair 639-2 underlay -91%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Tap Rules — 47.5% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Tap Rules47.5% ◀Valentine Crusader — 21.4% win probability, morning line 4/1Valentine Crusader21.4%Term Premium — 15.7% win probability, morning line 2/1Term Premium15.7%Galicat — 11.6% win probability, morning line 6/1Galicat11.6%Lombardo — 1.7% win probability, morning line 12/1Lombardo1.7%Kaz Toro — 1.0% win probability, morning line 12/1Kaz Toro1.0%Mcrye — 0.7% win probability, morning line 15/1Mcrye0.7%Mr Dan — 0.3% win probability, morning line 30/1Mr Dan0.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Tap Rules47.5%1.8/1
Valentine Crusader21.4%4/1
Term Premium15.7%2/1
Galicat11.6%6/1
Lombardo1.7%12/1
Kaz Toro1.0%12/1
Mcrye0.7%15/1
Mr Dan0.3%30/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherTap Rules: model 47.5% vs market 27.9% (+19.7 points)Tap Rules+19.7Valentine Crusader: model 21.4% vs market 15.6% (+5.8 points)Valentine Crusader+5.8Term Premium: model 15.7% vs market 26.0% (-10.3 points)Term Premium-10.3Galicat: model 11.6% vs market 11.1% (+0.5 points)Galicat+0.5Lombardo: model 1.7% vs market 6.0% (-4.3 points)Lombardo-4.3Kaz Toro: model 1.0% vs market 6.0% (-5.0 points)Kaz Toro-5.0Mcrye: model 0.7% vs market 4.9% (-4.2 points)Mcrye-4.2Mr Dan: model 0.3% vs market 2.5% (-2.2 points)Mr Dan-2.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Tap Rules47.5%27.9%+19.7
Valentine Crusader21.4%15.6%+5.8
Term Premium15.7%26.0%-10.3
Galicat11.6%11.1%+0.5
Lombardo1.7%6.0%-4.3
Kaz Toro1.0%6.0%-5.0
Mcrye0.7%4.9%-4.2
Mr Dan0.3%2.5%-2.2
🌧️ Off-track: 825316
🎯 Longshots: 82531674
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #5, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Turf · Starter Allowance · Purse $65,000
Win:2Salt Spartan (6/5) 40% · fair 3-2
Place:3Diliello (4/1) 20% · fair 4-1
Show:6Coach Case (9/2) 18% · fair 9-2
Other contenders:7Blame It On K J (6/1) 7% · fair 29-2 underlay -58%, 5Smilensaycheese (10/1) 5% · fair 19-1 underlay -47%, 4Manor Park (12/1) 3% · fair 28-1 underlay -57%
Rest of field:1Maximum Heat (15/1) 3% · fair 57-2 underlay -48%, 8Solo Empire (12/1) 3% · fair 61-2 underlay -60%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Salt Spartan — 40.1% win probability, morning line 1.2/1Salt Spartan40.1% ◀Diliello — 20.4% win probability, morning line 4/1Diliello20.4%Coach Case — 17.9% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Coach Case17.9%Blame It On K J — 6.5% win probability, morning line 6/1Blame It On K J6.5%Smilensaycheese — 5.0% win probability, morning line 10/1Smilensaycheese5.0%Manor Park — 3.5% win probability, morning line 12/1Manor Park3.5%Maximum Heat — 3.4% win probability, morning line 15/1Maximum Heat3.4%Solo Empire — 3.2% win probability, morning line 12/1Solo Empire3.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Salt Spartan40.1%1.2/1
Diliello20.4%4/1
Coach Case17.9%4.5/1
Blame It On K J6.5%6/1
Smilensaycheese5.0%10/1
Manor Park3.5%12/1
Maximum Heat3.4%15/1
Solo Empire3.2%12/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherSalt Spartan: model 40.1% vs market 35.3% (+4.8 points)Salt Spartan+4.8Diliello: model 20.4% vs market 15.5% (+4.9 points)Diliello+4.9Coach Case: model 17.9% vs market 14.1% (+3.7 points)Coach Case+3.7Blame It On K J: model 6.5% vs market 11.1% (-4.6 points)Blame It On K J-4.6Smilensaycheese: model 5.0% vs market 7.1% (-2.1 points)Smilensaycheese-2.1Manor Park: model 3.5% vs market 6.0% (-2.5 points)Manor Park-2.5Maximum Heat: model 3.4% vs market 4.9% (-1.5 points)Maximum Heat-1.5Solo Empire: model 3.2% vs market 6.0% (-2.8 points)Solo Empire-2.8

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Salt Spartan40.1%35.3%+4.8
Diliello20.4%15.5%+4.9
Coach Case17.9%14.1%+3.7
Blame It On K J6.5%11.1%-4.6
Smilensaycheese5.0%7.1%-2.1
Manor Park3.5%6.0%-2.5
Maximum Heat3.4%4.9%-1.5
Solo Empire3.2%6.0%-2.8
🌧️ Off-track: 236754
🎯 Longshots: 25614378
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #6, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 1/2 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:3Blazing Beauty (5/2) 29% · fair 5-2
Place:4Rockabye (9/2) 21% · fair 4-1
Show:6Aerial Affair (4/1) 15% · fair 6-1 underlay -31%
Other contenders:1Ready Set Roll (8/1) 11% · fair 17-2, 2Saintly Villain (12/1) 6% · fair 15-1, 8Shared Ambition (5/1) 6% · fair 15-1 underlay -66%
Rest of field:7Mariner (15/1) 6% · fair 33-2, 9Harpist (6/1) 5% · fair 39-2 underlay -69%, 5Aneki (20/1) 1% · fair 141-2 underlay -72%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Blazing Beauty — 29.4% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Blazing Beauty29.4% ◀Rockabye — 20.6% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Rockabye20.6%Aerial Affair — 14.7% win probability, morning line 4/1Aerial Affair14.7%Ready Set Roll — 10.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Ready Set Roll10.6%Saintly Villain — 6.3% win probability, morning line 12/1Saintly Villain6.3%Shared Ambition — 6.3% win probability, morning line 5/1Shared Ambition6.3%Mariner — 5.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Mariner5.8%Harpist — 4.9% win probability, morning line 6/1Harpist4.9%Aneki — 1.4% win probability, morning line 20/1Aneki1.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Blazing Beauty29.4%2.5/1
Rockabye20.6%4.5/1
Aerial Affair14.7%4/1
Ready Set Roll10.6%8/1
Saintly Villain6.3%12/1
Shared Ambition6.3%5/1
Mariner5.8%15/1
Harpist4.9%6/1
Aneki1.4%20/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherBlazing Beauty: model 29.4% vs market 22.4% (+7.0 points)Blazing Beauty+7.0Rockabye: model 20.6% vs market 14.3% (+6.3 points)Rockabye+6.3Aerial Affair: model 14.7% vs market 15.7% (-1.0 points)Aerial Affair-1.0Ready Set Roll: model 10.6% vs market 8.7% (+1.9 points)Ready Set Roll+1.9Saintly Villain: model 6.3% vs market 6.0% (+0.3 points)Saintly Villain+0.3Shared Ambition: model 6.3% vs market 13.1% (-6.8 points)Shared Ambition-6.8Mariner: model 5.8% vs market 4.9% (+0.9 points)Mariner+0.9Harpist: model 4.9% vs market 11.2% (-6.3 points)Harpist-6.3Aneki: model 1.4% vs market 3.7% (-2.3 points)Aneki-2.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Blazing Beauty29.4%22.4%+7.0
Rockabye20.6%14.3%+6.3
Aerial Affair14.7%15.7%-1.0
Ready Set Roll10.6%8.7%+1.9
Saintly Villain6.3%6.0%+0.3
Shared Ambition6.3%13.1%-6.8
Mariner5.8%4.9%+0.9
Harpist4.9%11.2%-6.3
Aneki1.4%3.7%-2.3
🌧️ Off-track: 346819
🎯 Longshots: 389416275
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $35,000
Win:5Unbroken Chain (5/2) 23% · fair 7-2 underlay -25%
Place:1Kid Billy (4/1) 17% · fair 5-1
Show:2Disarmed (9/2) 16% · fair 5-1
Other contenders:3Tenebris (6/1) 13% · fair 13-2, 4Screaming Uncle (4/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -47%, 7Without Pretence (8/1) 9% · fair 21-2
Rest of field:6Neuschwanstein (10/1) 7% · fair 29-2 underlay -30%, 8Bootleg Runner (15/1) 4% · fair 55-2 underlay -45%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Unbroken Chain — 23.0% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Unbroken Chain23.0% ◀Kid Billy — 17.3% win probability, morning line 4/1Kid Billy17.3%Disarmed — 16.4% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Disarmed16.4%Tenebris — 13.0% win probability, morning line 6/1Tenebris13.0%Screaming Uncle — 11.6% win probability, morning line 4/1Screaming Uncle11.6%Without Pretence — 8.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Without Pretence8.6%Neuschwanstein — 6.5% win probability, morning line 10/1Neuschwanstein6.5%Bootleg Runner — 3.5% win probability, morning line 15/1Bootleg Runner3.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Unbroken Chain23.0%2.5/1
Kid Billy17.3%4/1
Disarmed16.4%4.5/1
Tenebris13.0%6/1
Screaming Uncle11.6%4/1
Without Pretence8.6%8/1
Neuschwanstein6.5%10/1
Bootleg Runner3.5%15/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherUnbroken Chain: model 23.0% vs market 22.4% (+0.6 points)Unbroken Chain+0.6Kid Billy: model 17.3% vs market 15.7% (+1.6 points)Kid Billy+1.6Disarmed: model 16.4% vs market 14.3% (+2.1 points)Disarmed+2.1Tenebris: model 13.0% vs market 11.2% (+1.8 points)Tenebris+1.8Screaming Uncle: model 11.6% vs market 15.7% (-4.0 points)Screaming Uncle-4.0Without Pretence: model 8.6% vs market 8.7% (-0.1 points)Without Pretence-0.1Neuschwanstein: model 6.5% vs market 7.1% (-0.6 points)Neuschwanstein-0.6Bootleg Runner: model 3.5% vs market 4.9% (-1.4 points)Bootleg Runner-1.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Unbroken Chain23.0%22.4%+0.6
Kid Billy17.3%15.7%+1.6
Disarmed16.4%14.3%+2.1
Tenebris13.0%11.2%+1.8
Screaming Uncle11.6%15.7%-4.0
Without Pretence8.6%8.7%-0.1
Neuschwanstein6.5%7.1%-0.6
Bootleg Runner3.5%4.9%-1.4
🌧️ Off-track: 512437
🎯 Longshots: 51762438
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:6Ganderella (9/5) 40% · fair 3-2
Place:3Zap That Ghost (4/1) 23% · fair 7-2
Show:1Take Charge Smarty (7/2) 16% · fair 11-2 underlay -35%
Other contenders:4Vicked (5/2) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -70%, 7Alesiamae (10/1) 8% · fair 12-1, 5Mighty Miss (15/1) 2% · fair 99-2 underlay -70%
Rest of field:8Run Flat (30/1) 1% · fair 347-2 underlay -83%, 2City War (30/1) 1% · fair 393-2 underlay -85%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Ganderella — 39.9% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Ganderella39.9% ◀Zap That Ghost — 23.2% win probability, morning line 4/1Zap That Ghost23.2%Take Charge Smarty — 15.6% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Take Charge Smarty15.6%Vicked — 10.6% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Vicked10.6%Alesiamae — 7.6% win probability, morning line 10/1Alesiamae7.6%Mighty Miss — 2.0% win probability, morning line 15/1Mighty Miss2.0%Run Flat — 0.6% win probability, morning line 30/1Run Flat0.6%City War — 0.5% win probability, morning line 30/1City War0.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Ganderella39.9%1.8/1
Zap That Ghost23.2%4/1
Take Charge Smarty15.6%3.5/1
Vicked10.6%2.5/1
Alesiamae7.6%10/1
Mighty Miss2.0%15/1
Run Flat0.6%30/1
City War0.5%30/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherGanderella: model 39.9% vs market 27.8% (+12.1 points)Ganderella+12.1Zap That Ghost: model 23.2% vs market 15.6% (+7.6 points)Zap That Ghost+7.6Take Charge Smarty: model 15.6% vs market 17.3% (-1.7 points)Take Charge Smarty-1.7Vicked: model 10.6% vs market 22.3% (-11.7 points)Vicked-11.7Alesiamae: model 7.6% vs market 7.1% (+0.6 points)Alesiamae+0.6Mighty Miss: model 2.0% vs market 4.9% (-2.9 points)Mighty Miss-2.9Run Flat: model 0.6% vs market 2.5% (-1.9 points)Run Flat-1.9City War: model 0.5% vs market 2.5% (-2.0 points)City War-2.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Ganderella39.9%27.8%+12.1
Zap That Ghost23.2%15.6%+7.6
Take Charge Smarty15.6%17.3%-1.7
Vicked10.6%22.3%-11.7
Alesiamae7.6%7.1%+0.6
Mighty Miss2.0%4.9%-2.9
Run Flat0.6%2.5%-1.9
City War0.5%2.5%-2.0
🌧️ Off-track: 634175
🎯 Longshots: 61437528
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 1/4 Miles · Inner Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $105,000
Win:4Stand The Rain (5/2) 29% · fair 5-2
Place:6Consensus View (3/1) 19% · fair 9-2 underlay -30%
Show:2Alibi (4/1) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -32%
Other contenders:7Tiz The Lady (6/1) 13% · fair 13-2, 5Abigail (8/1) 9% · fair 10-1
Rest of field:3Toes (7/2) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -70%, 1Bobby M's Girl (12/1) 7% · fair 13-1
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Stand The Rain — 29.2% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Stand The Rain29.2% ◀Consensus View — 19.0% win probability, morning line 3/1Consensus View19.0%Alibi — 14.5% win probability, morning line 4/1Alibi14.5%Tiz The Lady — 13.3% win probability, morning line 6/1Tiz The Lady13.3%Abigail — 9.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Abigail9.0%Toes — 7.9% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Toes7.9%Bobby M'S Girl — 7.2% win probability, morning line 12/1Bobby M'S Girl7.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Stand The Rain29.2%2.5/1
Consensus View19.0%3/1
Alibi14.5%4/1
Tiz The Lady13.3%6/1
Abigail9.0%8/1
Toes7.9%3.5/1
Bobby M'S Girl7.2%12/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherStand The Rain: model 29.2% vs market 22.2% (+7.1 points)Stand The Rain+7.1Consensus View: model 19.0% vs market 19.4% (-0.4 points)Consensus View-0.4Alibi: model 14.5% vs market 15.5% (-1.1 points)Alibi-1.1Tiz The Lady: model 13.3% vs market 11.1% (+2.2 points)Tiz The Lady+2.2Abigail: model 9.0% vs market 8.6% (+0.3 points)Abigail+0.3Toes: model 7.9% vs market 17.2% (-9.4 points)Toes-9.4Bobby M'S Girl: model 7.2% vs market 6.0% (+1.2 points)Bobby M'S Girl+1.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Stand The Rain29.2%22.2%+7.1
Consensus View19.0%19.4%-0.4
Alibi14.5%15.5%-1.1
Tiz The Lady13.3%11.1%+2.2
Abigail9.0%8.6%+0.3
Toes7.9%17.2%-9.4
Bobby M'S Girl7.2%6.0%+1.2
🌧️ Off-track: 462375
🎯 Longshots: 4652173
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #2, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $37,000
Win:4Supreme Good (6/1) 18% · fair 9-2 overlay +34%
Place:1Sociably Johnny (3/1) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -38%
Show:3Corvus (8/1) 13% · fair 7-1
Other contenders:2Whitby (9/2) 12% · fair 7-1 underlay -37%, 8Monte Avi (9/2) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -44%, 5Resilient Hero (8/1) 9% · fair 21-2
Rest of field:9The Obliterator (6/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -43%, 7Lucky Dragon (10/1) 6% · fair 33-2 underlay -39%, 6Good Bali (15/1) 6% · fair 33-2
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Supreme Good — 18.2% win probability, morning line 6/1Supreme Good18.2% ◀Sociably Johnny — 17.1% win probability, morning line 3/1Sociably Johnny17.1%Corvus — 12.5% win probability, morning line 8/1Corvus12.5%Whitby — 12.3% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Whitby12.3%Monte Avi — 11.0% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Monte Avi11.0%Resilient Hero — 8.9% win probability, morning line 8/1Resilient Hero8.9%The Obliterator — 8.7% win probability, morning line 6/1The Obliterator8.7%Lucky Dragon — 5.8% win probability, morning line 10/1Lucky Dragon5.8%Good Bali — 5.6% win probability, morning line 15/1Good Bali5.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Supreme Good18.2%6/1
Sociably Johnny17.1%3/1
Corvus12.5%8/1
Whitby12.3%4.5/1
Monte Avi11.0%4.5/1
Resilient Hero8.9%8/1
The Obliterator8.7%6/1
Lucky Dragon5.8%10/1
Good Bali5.6%15/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherSupreme Good: model 18.2% vs market 11.2% (+7.0 points)Supreme Good+7.0Sociably Johnny: model 17.1% vs market 19.6% (-2.5 points)Sociably Johnny-2.5Corvus: model 12.5% vs market 8.7% (+3.8 points)Corvus+3.8Whitby: model 12.3% vs market 14.3% (-2.0 points)Whitby-2.0Monte Avi: model 11.0% vs market 14.3% (-3.3 points)Monte Avi-3.3Resilient Hero: model 8.9% vs market 8.7% (+0.2 points)Resilient Hero+0.2The Obliterator: model 8.7% vs market 11.2% (-2.5 points)The Obliterator-2.5Lucky Dragon: model 5.8% vs market 7.1% (-1.4 points)Lucky Dragon-1.4Good Bali: model 5.6% vs market 4.9% (+0.7 points)Good Bali+0.7

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Supreme Good18.2%11.2%+7.0
Sociably Johnny17.1%19.6%-2.5
Corvus12.5%8.7%+3.8
Whitby12.3%14.3%-2.0
Monte Avi11.0%14.3%-3.3
Resilient Hero8.9%8.7%+0.2
The Obliterator8.7%11.2%-2.5
Lucky Dragon5.8%7.1%-1.4
Good Bali5.6%4.9%+0.7
🌧️ Off-track: 142839
🎯 Longshots: 135672984
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
Algo 1 (Weighted Rating) at Belmont — win rate vs the experts

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 241 graded races at Belmont, 2026-09-18 to 2026-11-08.

0%10%19%29%38%Our top pick: 30.7% from 241 racesOur top pick30.7%Expert consensus pick: 27.0% from 241 racesExpert consensus pick27.0%

The consensus is the weighted top pick of 25+ published handicappers. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick30.7%241
Expert consensus pick27.0%241
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $59,000
Win:3Stream It (8/5)
Place:8Senior Lender (4/1)
Show:6Blue Mountains (5/1)
Other contenders:7Determinedfinisher (5/1), 5Gordy (6/1), 2Sorrentino (8/1)
Rest of field:1Asked And Answered (12/1), 4Enticed Master (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 386752
🎯 Longshots: 37128654
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #8, #6, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:8Tap Rules (9/5)
Place:2Term Premium (2/1)
Show:5Valentine Crusader (4/1)
Other contenders:3Galicat (6/1), 1Lombardo (12/1), 6Kaz Toro (12/1)
Rest of field:7Mcrye (15/1), 4Mr Dan (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 825316
🎯 Longshots: 82531674
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #2, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Turf · Starter Allowance · Purse $65,000
Win:2Salt Spartan (6/5)
Place:6Coach Case (9/2)
Show:3Diliello (4/1)
Other contenders:7Blame It On K J (6/1), 5Smilensaycheese (10/1), 8Solo Empire (12/1)
Rest of field:1Maximum Heat (15/1), 4Manor Park (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 263758
🎯 Longshots: 25614378
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #3, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 1/2 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:3Blazing Beauty (5/2)
Place:4Rockabye (9/2)
Show:6Aerial Affair (4/1)
Other contenders:8Shared Ambition (5/1), 1Ready Set Roll (8/1), 2Saintly Villain (12/1)
Rest of field:9Harpist (6/1), 7Mariner (15/1), 5Aneki (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 346891
🎯 Longshots: 389416275
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #6, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $35,000
Win:5Unbroken Chain (5/2)
Place:1Kid Billy (4/1)
Show:2Disarmed (9/2)
Other contenders:3Tenebris (6/1), 4Screaming Uncle (4/1), 6Neuschwanstein (10/1)
Rest of field:7Without Pretence (8/1), 8Bootleg Runner (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 514237
🎯 Longshots: 51762438
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:6Ganderella (9/5)
Place:1Take Charge Smarty (7/2)
Show:3Zap That Ghost (4/1)
Other contenders:4Vicked (5/2), 7Alesiamae (10/1), 5Mighty Miss (15/1)
Rest of field:2City War (30/1), 8Run Flat (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 641375
🎯 Longshots: 61437528
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 1/4 Miles · Inner Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $105,000
Win:4Stand The Rain (5/2)
Place:2Alibi (4/1)
Show:6Consensus View (3/1)
Other contenders:3Toes (7/2), 7Tiz The Lady (6/1)
Rest of field:5Abigail (8/1), 1Bobby M's Girl (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 462375
🎯 Longshots: 4652173
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #6, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $37,000
Win:1Sociably Johnny (3/1)
Place:3Corvus (8/1)
Show:4Supreme Good (6/1)
Other contenders:2Whitby (9/2), 8Monte Avi (9/2), 5Resilient Hero (8/1)
Rest of field:9The Obliterator (6/1), 7Lucky Dragon (10/1), 6Good Bali (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 124839
🎯 Longshots: 135672984
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #3 over #7 ($1 straight; box #3-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #6, #8, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #8 over #2 ($1 straight; box #8-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #8 over #5, #2, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #2 over #6 ($1 straight; box #2-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #6, #3, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #3 over #8 ($1 straight; box #3-#8 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #4, #6, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #5 over #1 ($1 straight; box #5-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #1, #2, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #6 over #1 ($1 straight; box #6-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #6, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #4 over #6 ($1 straight; box #4-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #2, #7, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #1 over #4 ($1 straight; box #1-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #3, #4, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $59,000
Win:3Stream It (8/5)
Place:8Senior Lender (4/1)
Show:6Blue Mountains (5/1)
Other contenders:7Determinedfinisher (5/1), 5Gordy (6/1), 1Asked And Answered (12/1)
Rest of field:2Sorrentino (8/1), 4Enticed Master (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 386752
🎯 Longshots: 37128654
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #8, #6, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:8Tap Rules (9/5)
Place:2Term Premium (2/1)
Show:5Valentine Crusader (4/1)
Other contenders:3Galicat (6/1), 1Lombardo (12/1), 6Kaz Toro (12/1)
Rest of field:7Mcrye (15/1), 4Mr Dan (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 825316
🎯 Longshots: 82531674
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #2, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Turf · Starter Allowance · Purse $65,000
Win:2Salt Spartan (6/5)
Place:6Coach Case (9/2)
Show:3Diliello (4/1)
Other contenders:8Solo Empire (12/1), 7Blame It On K J (6/1), 1Maximum Heat (15/1)
Rest of field:5Smilensaycheese (10/1), 4Manor Park (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 263785
🎯 Longshots: 25614378
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #3, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 1/2 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:3Blazing Beauty (5/2)
Place:6Aerial Affair (4/1)
Show:4Rockabye (9/2)
Other contenders:8Shared Ambition (5/1), 1Ready Set Roll (8/1), 9Harpist (6/1)
Rest of field:7Mariner (15/1), 2Saintly Villain (12/1), 5Aneki (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 364891
🎯 Longshots: 389416275
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #4, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $35,000
Win:5Unbroken Chain (5/2)
Place:7Without Pretence (8/1)
Show:1Kid Billy (4/1)
Other contenders:2Disarmed (9/2), 3Tenebris (6/1), 4Screaming Uncle (4/1)
Rest of field:6Neuschwanstein (10/1), 8Bootleg Runner (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 514237
🎯 Longshots: 51762438
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:6Ganderella (9/5)
Place:1Take Charge Smarty (7/2)
Show:4Vicked (5/2)
Other contenders:3Zap That Ghost (4/1), 7Alesiamae (10/1), 5Mighty Miss (15/1)
Rest of field:2City War (30/1), 8Run Flat (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 641375
🎯 Longshots: 61437528
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #4, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 1/4 Miles · Inner Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $105,000
Win:2Alibi (4/1)
Place:5Abigail (8/1)
Show:4Stand The Rain (5/2)
Other contenders:6Consensus View (3/1), 3Toes (7/2)
Rest of field:7Tiz The Lady (6/1), 1Bobby M's Girl (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 462357
🎯 Longshots: 4652173
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $37,000
Win:1Sociably Johnny (3/1)
Place:3Corvus (8/1)
Show:4Supreme Good (6/1)
Other contenders:6Good Bali (15/1), 8Monte Avi (9/2), 9The Obliterator (6/1)
Rest of field:2Whitby (9/2), 5Resilient Hero (8/1), 7Lucky Dragon (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 148329
🎯 Longshots: 135672984
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $59,000
Win:3Stream It (8/5)
Place:6Blue Mountains (5/1)
Show:8Senior Lender (4/1)
Other contenders:2Sorrentino (8/1), 5Gordy (6/1), 1Asked And Answered (12/1)
Rest of field:7Determinedfinisher (5/1), 4Enticed Master (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 386752
🎯 Longshots: 37128654
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #8, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:8Tap Rules (9/5)
Place:5Valentine Crusader (4/1)
Show:2Term Premium (2/1)
Other contenders:3Galicat (6/1), 1Lombardo (12/1), 6Kaz Toro (12/1)
Rest of field:7Mcrye (15/1), 4Mr Dan (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 825316
🎯 Longshots: 82531674
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #5, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Turf · Starter Allowance · Purse $65,000
Win:2Salt Spartan (6/5)
Place:6Coach Case (9/2)
Show:3Diliello (4/1)
Other contenders:5Smilensaycheese (10/1), 7Blame It On K J (6/1), 8Solo Empire (12/1)
Rest of field:1Maximum Heat (15/1), 4Manor Park (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 263758
🎯 Longshots: 25614378
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 1/2 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:3Blazing Beauty (5/2)
Place:4Rockabye (9/2)
Show:6Aerial Affair (4/1)
Other contenders:1Ready Set Roll (8/1), 2Saintly Villain (12/1), 8Shared Ambition (5/1)
Rest of field:7Mariner (15/1), 9Harpist (6/1), 5Aneki (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 364819
🎯 Longshots: 389416275
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $35,000
Win:5Unbroken Chain (5/2)
Place:1Kid Billy (4/1)
Show:2Disarmed (9/2)
Other contenders:4Screaming Uncle (4/1), 3Tenebris (6/1), 7Without Pretence (8/1)
Rest of field:6Neuschwanstein (10/1), 8Bootleg Runner (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 514237
🎯 Longshots: 51762438
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:1Take Charge Smarty (7/2)
Place:6Ganderella (9/5)
Show:3Zap That Ghost (4/1)
Other contenders:4Vicked (5/2), 7Alesiamae (10/1), 5Mighty Miss (15/1)
Rest of field:2City War (30/1), 8Run Flat (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 614375
🎯 Longshots: 61437528
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 1/4 Miles · Inner Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $105,000
Win:4Stand The Rain (5/2)
Place:2Alibi (4/1)
Show:7Tiz The Lady (6/1)
Other contenders:6Consensus View (3/1), 5Abigail (8/1)
Rest of field:3Toes (7/2), 1Bobby M's Girl (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 426375
🎯 Longshots: 4652173
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #7, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $37,000
Win:1Sociably Johnny (3/1)
Place:3Corvus (8/1)
Show:4Supreme Good (6/1)
Other contenders:2Whitby (9/2), 6Good Bali (15/1), 8Monte Avi (9/2)
Rest of field:9The Obliterator (6/1), 5Resilient Hero (8/1), 7Lucky Dragon (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 124389
🎯 Longshots: 135672984
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets – Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R1-3R1: #3,#6,#8 (65%) / R2: #8,#5 (69%) / R3: #2,#3 (61%)
$12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 27%
Pick 3 R2-4R2: #8,#5 (69%) / R3: #2,#3 (61%) / R4: #3,#4,#6 (65%)
$12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 27%
Pick 3 R4-6R4: #3,#4,#6 (65%) / R5: #5,#1,#2 (57%) / R6: #6,#3 (63%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 23%
Pick 3 R5-7R5: #5,#1,#2 (57%) / R6: #6,#3 (63%) / R7: #4,#6,#2 (63%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 22%
Pick 4 R1-4R1: #3,#6,#8 (65%) / R2: #8,#5 (69%) / R3: #2,#3 (61%) / R4: #3,#4,#6 (65%)
$36 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 18%
Pick 4 R2-5R2: #8,#5 (69%) / R3: #2,#3 (61%) / R4: #3,#4,#6 (65%) / R5: #5,#1,#2 (57%)
$36 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 15%
Index – Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
ABIGAILAERIAL AFFAIRALESIAMAEALIBIANEKI
BLAME IT ON K JBLAZING BEAUTYBLUE MOUNTAINSBOBBY M'S GIRLBOOTLEG RUNNER
COACH CASECONSENSUS VIEWCORVUSDETERMINEDFINISHERDILIELLO
ENTICED MASTERGALICATGANDERELLAGOOD BALIGORDY
KAZ TOROKID BILLYLOMBARDOLUCKY DRAGONMANOR PARK
MAXIMUM HEATMCRYEMIGHTY MISSMONTE AVIMR DAN
READY SET ROLLRESILIENT HEROROCKABYERUN FLATSAINTLY VILLAIN
SCREAMING UNCLESENIOR LENDERSHARED AMBITIONSMILENSAYCHEESESOCIABLY JOHNNY
SORRENTINOSTAND THE RAINSTREAM ITSUPREME GOODTAKE CHARGE SMARTY
TENEBRISTERM PREMIUMTHE OBLITERATORTIZ THE LADYTOES
VALENTINE CRUSADERVICKEDWHITBYWITHOUT PRETENCEZAP THAT GHOST

 


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