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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets (every race where one of our AI algorithms agrees with the expert consensus); Insider adds Algo 2 and the sharper Best Bets list, only the races where Algo 2 agrees with the experts; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.
How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.
Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).
How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 285 graded races at Belmont, 2026-09-18 to 2026-11-08.
The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.
Show the numbers
| Group | Win rate | Races |
|---|---|---|
| Our top pick | 34.7% | 285 |
| Morning-line favourite | 30.9% | 285 |
| Race 1 1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $59,000 | |
| ◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often. | |
| Win: | 3Stream It (8/5) |
| Place: | 8Senior Lender (4/1) |
| Show: | 6Blue Mountains (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 7Determinedfinisher (5/1), 5Gordy (6/1), 2Sorrentino (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1Asked And Answered (12/1), 4Enticed Master (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 386752 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 37128654 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #8, #6, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000 | |
| ◆ Strong spot — an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often. | |
| Win: | 8Tap Rules (9/5) |
| Place: | 2Term Premium (2/1) |
| Show: | 5Valentine Crusader (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 3Galicat (6/1), 6Kaz Toro (12/1), 1Lombardo (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7Mcrye (15/1), 4Mr Dan (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 825361 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 82531674 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #2, #5, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 1 Miles · Turf · Starter Allowance · Purse $65,000 | |
| ◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often. | |
| Win: | 2Salt Spartan (6/5) |
| Place: | 6Coach Case (9/2) |
| Show: | 3Diliello (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5Smilensaycheese (10/1), 7Blame It On K J (6/1), 4Manor Park (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1Maximum Heat (15/1), 8Solo Empire (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 263754 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 25614378 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #3, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 6 1/2 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000 | |
| Win: | 3Blazing Beauty (5/2) |
| Place: | 4Rockabye (9/2) |
| Show: | 6Aerial Affair (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 8Shared Ambition (5/1), 1Ready Set Roll (8/1), 9Harpist (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2Saintly Villain (12/1), 7Mariner (15/1), 5Aneki (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 346819 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 389416275 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #6, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $35,000 | |
| Win: | 5Unbroken Chain (5/2) |
| Place: | 1Kid Billy (4/1) |
| Show: | 2Disarmed (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 4Screaming Uncle (4/1), 3Tenebris (6/1), 7Without Pretence (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6Neuschwanstein (10/1), 8Bootleg Runner (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 512437 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 51762438 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #2, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000 | |
| ◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often. | |
| Win: | 6Ganderella (9/5) |
| Place: | 3Zap That Ghost (4/1) |
| Show: | 1Take Charge Smarty (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 4Vicked (5/2), 7Alesiamae (10/1), 5Mighty Miss (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 8Run Flat (30/1), 2City War (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 643175 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 61437528 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #1, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1 1/4 Miles · Inner Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $105,000 | |
| ◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often. | |
| Win: | 4Stand The Rain (5/2) |
| Place: | 6Consensus View (3/1) |
| Show: | 2Alibi (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 7Tiz The Lady (6/1), 5Abigail (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3Toes (7/2), 1Bobby M's Girl (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 462375 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4652173 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #2, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $37,000 | |
| ◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often. | |
| Win: | 1Sociably Johnny (3/1) |
| Place: | 2Whitby (9/2) |
| Show: | 4Supreme Good (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 8Monte Avi (9/2), 9The Obliterator (6/1), 3Corvus (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5Resilient Hero (8/1), 7Lucky Dragon (10/1), 6Good Bali (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 124893 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 135672984 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #4, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 239 graded races at Belmont, 2026-09-18 to 2026-11-08.
The consensus is the weighted top pick of 25+ published handicappers. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.
Show the numbers
| Group | Win rate | Races |
|---|---|---|
| Our top pick | 32.2% | 239 |
| Expert consensus pick | 27.2% | 239 |
| Race 1 1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $59,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 3Stream It (8/5) 34% · fair 2-1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 6Blue Mountains (5/1) 19% · fair 9-2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 8Senior Lender (4/1) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -42% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 2Sorrentino (8/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 5Gordy (6/1) 11% · fair 8-1, 1Asked And Answered (12/1) 6% · fair 33-2 underlay -26% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 7Determinedfinisher (5/1) 5% · fair 19-1 underlay -74%, 4Enticed Master (30/1) 1% · fair 121-1 underlay -75% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Race 1 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale. we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay) The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short. Show the numbers
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🌧️ Off-track: 368572 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 37128654 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #8, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Race 2 7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 8Tap Rules (9/5) 48% · fair 1-1 overlay +63% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 5Valentine Crusader (4/1) 21% · fair 7-2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 2Term Premium (2/1) 16% · fair 11-2 underlay -63% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 3Galicat (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 1Lombardo (12/1) 2% · fair 56-1 underlay -79%, 6Kaz Toro (12/1) 1% · fair 102-1 underlay -88% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 7Mcrye (15/1) 1% · fair 141-1 underlay -89%, 4Mr Dan (30/1) 0% · fair 639-2 underlay -91% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Race 2 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale. we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay) The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short. Show the numbers
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🌧️ Off-track: 825316 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 82531674 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #5, #2, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Race 3 1 Miles · Turf · Starter Allowance · Purse $65,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 2Salt Spartan (6/5) 40% · fair 3-2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 3Diliello (4/1) 20% · fair 4-1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 6Coach Case (9/2) 18% · fair 9-2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 7Blame It On K J (6/1) 7% · fair 29-2 underlay -58%, 5Smilensaycheese (10/1) 5% · fair 19-1 underlay -47%, 4Manor Park (12/1) 3% · fair 28-1 underlay -57% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 1Maximum Heat (15/1) 3% · fair 57-2 underlay -48%, 8Solo Empire (12/1) 3% · fair 61-2 underlay -60% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Race 3 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale. we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay) The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short. Show the numbers
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🌧️ Off-track: 236754 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 25614378 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #6, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Race 4 6 1/2 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 3Blazing Beauty (5/2) 29% · fair 5-2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 4Rockabye (9/2) 21% · fair 4-1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 6Aerial Affair (4/1) 15% · fair 6-1 underlay -31% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 1Ready Set Roll (8/1) 11% · fair 17-2, 2Saintly Villain (12/1) 6% · fair 15-1, 8Shared Ambition (5/1) 6% · fair 15-1 underlay -66% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 7Mariner (15/1) 6% · fair 33-2, 9Harpist (6/1) 5% · fair 39-2 underlay -69%, 5Aneki (20/1) 1% · fair 141-2 underlay -72% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Race 4 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale. we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay) The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short. Show the numbers
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🌧️ Off-track: 346819 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 389416275 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #6, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Race 5 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $35,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 5Unbroken Chain (5/2) 23% · fair 7-2 underlay -25% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 1Kid Billy (4/1) 17% · fair 5-1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 2Disarmed (9/2) 16% · fair 5-1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 3Tenebris (6/1) 13% · fair 13-2, 4Screaming Uncle (4/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -47%, 7Without Pretence (8/1) 9% · fair 21-2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 6Neuschwanstein (10/1) 7% · fair 29-2 underlay -30%, 8Bootleg Runner (15/1) 4% · fair 55-2 underlay -45% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Race 5 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale. we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay) The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short. Show the numbers
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| 🌧️ Off-track: 512437 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 51762438 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #2, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Race 6 1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 6Ganderella (9/5) 40% · fair 3-2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 3Zap That Ghost (4/1) 23% · fair 7-2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 1Take Charge Smarty (7/2) 16% · fair 11-2 underlay -35% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 4Vicked (5/2) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -70%, 7Alesiamae (10/1) 8% · fair 12-1, 5Mighty Miss (15/1) 2% · fair 99-2 underlay -70% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 8Run Flat (30/1) 1% · fair 347-2 underlay -83%, 2City War (30/1) 1% · fair 393-2 underlay -85% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Race 6 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale. we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay) The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short. Show the numbers
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| 🌧️ Off-track: 634175 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 61437528 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #1, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Race 7 1 1/4 Miles · Inner Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $105,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 4Stand The Rain (5/2) 29% · fair 5-2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 6Consensus View (3/1) 19% · fair 9-2 underlay -30% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 2Alibi (4/1) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -32% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 7Tiz The Lady (6/1) 13% · fair 13-2, 5Abigail (8/1) 9% · fair 10-1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 3Toes (7/2) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -70%, 1Bobby M's Girl (12/1) 7% · fair 13-1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Race 7 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale. we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay) The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short. Show the numbers
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| 🌧️ Off-track: 462375 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 4652173 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #2, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Race 8 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $37,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 4Supreme Good (6/1) 18% · fair 9-2 overlay +34% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 1Sociably Johnny (3/1) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -38% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 3Corvus (8/1) 13% · fair 7-1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 2Whitby (9/2) 12% · fair 7-1 underlay -37%, 8Monte Avi (9/2) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -44%, 5Resilient Hero (8/1) 9% · fair 21-2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 9The Obliterator (6/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -43%, 7Lucky Dragon (10/1) 6% · fair 33-2 underlay -39%, 6Good Bali (15/1) 6% · fair 33-2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Race 8 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale. we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay) The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short. Show the numbers
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| 🌧️ Off-track: 142839 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 135672984 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #3, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 241 graded races at Belmont, 2026-09-18 to 2026-11-08.
The consensus is the weighted top pick of 25+ published handicappers. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.
Show the numbers
| Group | Win rate | Races |
|---|---|---|
| Our top pick | 30.7% | 241 |
| Expert consensus pick | 27.0% | 241 |
| Race 1 1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $59,000 | |
| Win: | 3Stream It (8/5) |
| Place: | 8Senior Lender (4/1) |
| Show: | 6Blue Mountains (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 7Determinedfinisher (5/1), 5Gordy (6/1), 2Sorrentino (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1Asked And Answered (12/1), 4Enticed Master (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 386752 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 37128654 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #8, #6, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000 | |
| Win: | 8Tap Rules (9/5) |
| Place: | 2Term Premium (2/1) |
| Show: | 5Valentine Crusader (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 3Galicat (6/1), 1Lombardo (12/1), 6Kaz Toro (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7Mcrye (15/1), 4Mr Dan (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 825316 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 82531674 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #2, #5, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 1 Miles · Turf · Starter Allowance · Purse $65,000 | |
| Win: | 2Salt Spartan (6/5) |
| Place: | 6Coach Case (9/2) |
| Show: | 3Diliello (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 7Blame It On K J (6/1), 5Smilensaycheese (10/1), 8Solo Empire (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1Maximum Heat (15/1), 4Manor Park (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 263758 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 25614378 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #3, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 6 1/2 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000 | |
| Win: | 3Blazing Beauty (5/2) |
| Place: | 4Rockabye (9/2) |
| Show: | 6Aerial Affair (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 8Shared Ambition (5/1), 1Ready Set Roll (8/1), 2Saintly Villain (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 9Harpist (6/1), 7Mariner (15/1), 5Aneki (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 346891 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 389416275 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #6, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $35,000 | |
| Win: | 5Unbroken Chain (5/2) |
| Place: | 1Kid Billy (4/1) |
| Show: | 2Disarmed (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 3Tenebris (6/1), 4Screaming Uncle (4/1), 6Neuschwanstein (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7Without Pretence (8/1), 8Bootleg Runner (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 514237 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 51762438 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #2, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000 | |
| Win: | 6Ganderella (9/5) |
| Place: | 1Take Charge Smarty (7/2) |
| Show: | 3Zap That Ghost (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4Vicked (5/2), 7Alesiamae (10/1), 5Mighty Miss (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2City War (30/1), 8Run Flat (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 641375 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 61437528 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1 1/4 Miles · Inner Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $105,000 | |
| Win: | 4Stand The Rain (5/2) |
| Place: | 2Alibi (4/1) |
| Show: | 6Consensus View (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 3Toes (7/2), 7Tiz The Lady (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5Abigail (8/1), 1Bobby M's Girl (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 462375 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4652173 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #6, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $37,000 | |
| Win: | 1Sociably Johnny (3/1) |
| Place: | 3Corvus (8/1) |
| Show: | 4Supreme Good (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2Whitby (9/2), 8Monte Avi (9/2), 5Resilient Hero (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 9The Obliterator (6/1), 7Lucky Dragon (10/1), 6Good Bali (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 124839 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 135672984 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #4, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5, |
Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.
| Race 1 | AI Exacta: #3 over #7 ($1 straight; box #3-#7 for cover) Trifecta: #3 over #6, #8, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 2 | AI Exacta: #8 over #2 ($1 straight; box #8-#2 for cover) Trifecta: #8 over #5, #2, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 3 | AI Exacta: #2 over #6 ($1 straight; box #2-#6 for cover) Trifecta: #2 over #6, #3, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 4 | AI Exacta: #3 over #8 ($1 straight; box #3-#8 for cover) Trifecta: #3 over #4, #6, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 5 | AI Exacta: #5 over #1 ($1 straight; box #5-#1 for cover) Trifecta: #5 over #1, #2, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 6 | AI Exacta: #6 over #1 ($1 straight; box #6-#1 for cover) Trifecta: #1 over #6, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 7 | AI Exacta: #4 over #6 ($1 straight; box #4-#6 for cover) Trifecta: #4 over #2, #7, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 8 | AI Exacta: #1 over #4 ($1 straight; box #1-#4 for cover) Trifecta: #1 over #3, #4, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 1 1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $59,000 | |
| Win: | 3Stream It (8/5) |
| Place: | 8Senior Lender (4/1) |
| Show: | 6Blue Mountains (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 7Determinedfinisher (5/1), 5Gordy (6/1), 1Asked And Answered (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2Sorrentino (8/1), 4Enticed Master (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 386752 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 37128654 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #8, #6, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000 | |
| Win: | 8Tap Rules (9/5) |
| Place: | 2Term Premium (2/1) |
| Show: | 5Valentine Crusader (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 3Galicat (6/1), 1Lombardo (12/1), 6Kaz Toro (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7Mcrye (15/1), 4Mr Dan (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 825316 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 82531674 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #2, #5, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 1 Miles · Turf · Starter Allowance · Purse $65,000 | |
| Win: | 2Salt Spartan (6/5) |
| Place: | 6Coach Case (9/2) |
| Show: | 3Diliello (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 8Solo Empire (12/1), 7Blame It On K J (6/1), 1Maximum Heat (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5Smilensaycheese (10/1), 4Manor Park (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 263785 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 25614378 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #3, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 6 1/2 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000 | |
| Win: | 3Blazing Beauty (5/2) |
| Place: | 6Aerial Affair (4/1) |
| Show: | 4Rockabye (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 8Shared Ambition (5/1), 1Ready Set Roll (8/1), 9Harpist (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7Mariner (15/1), 2Saintly Villain (12/1), 5Aneki (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 364891 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 389416275 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #4, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $35,000 | |
| Win: | 5Unbroken Chain (5/2) |
| Place: | 7Without Pretence (8/1) |
| Show: | 1Kid Billy (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2Disarmed (9/2), 3Tenebris (6/1), 4Screaming Uncle (4/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6Neuschwanstein (10/1), 8Bootleg Runner (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 514237 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 51762438 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #1, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000 | |
| Win: | 6Ganderella (9/5) |
| Place: | 1Take Charge Smarty (7/2) |
| Show: | 4Vicked (5/2) |
| Other contenders: | 3Zap That Ghost (4/1), 7Alesiamae (10/1), 5Mighty Miss (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2City War (30/1), 8Run Flat (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 641375 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 61437528 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #4, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1 1/4 Miles · Inner Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $105,000 | |
| Win: | 2Alibi (4/1) |
| Place: | 5Abigail (8/1) |
| Show: | 4Stand The Rain (5/2) |
| Other contenders: | 6Consensus View (3/1), 3Toes (7/2) |
| Rest of field: | 7Tiz The Lady (6/1), 1Bobby M's Girl (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 462357 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4652173 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #4, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $37,000 | |
| Win: | 1Sociably Johnny (3/1) |
| Place: | 3Corvus (8/1) |
| Show: | 4Supreme Good (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6Good Bali (15/1), 8Monte Avi (9/2), 9The Obliterator (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2Whitby (9/2), 5Resilient Hero (8/1), 7Lucky Dragon (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 148329 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 135672984 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #4, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1, |
| Race 1 1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $59,000 | |
| Win: | 3Stream It (8/5) |
| Place: | 6Blue Mountains (5/1) |
| Show: | 8Senior Lender (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2Sorrentino (8/1), 5Gordy (6/1), 1Asked And Answered (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7Determinedfinisher (5/1), 4Enticed Master (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 386752 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 37128654 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #8, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000 | |
| Win: | 8Tap Rules (9/5) |
| Place: | 5Valentine Crusader (4/1) |
| Show: | 2Term Premium (2/1) |
| Other contenders: | 3Galicat (6/1), 1Lombardo (12/1), 6Kaz Toro (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7Mcrye (15/1), 4Mr Dan (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 825316 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 82531674 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #5, #2, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 1 Miles · Turf · Starter Allowance · Purse $65,000 | |
| Win: | 2Salt Spartan (6/5) |
| Place: | 6Coach Case (9/2) |
| Show: | 3Diliello (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5Smilensaycheese (10/1), 7Blame It On K J (6/1), 8Solo Empire (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1Maximum Heat (15/1), 4Manor Park (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 263758 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 25614378 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #3, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 6 1/2 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000 | |
| Win: | 3Blazing Beauty (5/2) |
| Place: | 4Rockabye (9/2) |
| Show: | 6Aerial Affair (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 1Ready Set Roll (8/1), 2Saintly Villain (12/1), 8Shared Ambition (5/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7Mariner (15/1), 9Harpist (6/1), 5Aneki (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 364819 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 389416275 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #6, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $35,000 | |
| Win: | 5Unbroken Chain (5/2) |
| Place: | 1Kid Billy (4/1) |
| Show: | 2Disarmed (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 4Screaming Uncle (4/1), 3Tenebris (6/1), 7Without Pretence (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6Neuschwanstein (10/1), 8Bootleg Runner (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 514237 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 51762438 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #2, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000 | |
| Win: | 1Take Charge Smarty (7/2) |
| Place: | 6Ganderella (9/5) |
| Show: | 3Zap That Ghost (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4Vicked (5/2), 7Alesiamae (10/1), 5Mighty Miss (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2City War (30/1), 8Run Flat (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 614375 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 61437528 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1 1/4 Miles · Inner Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $105,000 | |
| Win: | 4Stand The Rain (5/2) |
| Place: | 2Alibi (4/1) |
| Show: | 7Tiz The Lady (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6Consensus View (3/1), 5Abigail (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3Toes (7/2), 1Bobby M's Girl (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 426375 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4652173 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #7, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $37,000 | |
| Win: | 1Sociably Johnny (3/1) |
| Place: | 3Corvus (8/1) |
| Show: | 4Supreme Good (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2Whitby (9/2), 6Good Bali (15/1), 8Monte Avi (9/2) |
| Rest of field: | 9The Obliterator (6/1), 5Resilient Hero (8/1), 7Lucky Dragon (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 124389 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 135672984 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #4, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1, |
Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.
| Pick 3 R1-3 | R1: #3,#6,#8 (65%) / R2: #8,#5 (69%) / R3: #2,#3 (61%) $12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 27% |
| Pick 3 R2-4 | R2: #8,#5 (69%) / R3: #2,#3 (61%) / R4: #3,#4,#6 (65%) $12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 27% |
| Pick 3 R4-6 | R4: #3,#4,#6 (65%) / R5: #5,#1,#2 (57%) / R6: #6,#3 (63%) $18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 23% |
| Pick 3 R5-7 | R5: #5,#1,#2 (57%) / R6: #6,#3 (63%) / R7: #4,#6,#2 (63%) $18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 22% |
| Pick 4 R1-4 | R1: #3,#6,#8 (65%) / R2: #8,#5 (69%) / R3: #2,#3 (61%) / R4: #3,#4,#6 (65%) $36 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 18% |
| Pick 4 R2-5 | R2: #8,#5 (69%) / R3: #2,#3 (61%) / R4: #3,#4,#6 (65%) / R5: #5,#1,#2 (57%) $36 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 15% |
| ABIGAIL | AERIAL AFFAIR | ALESIAMAE | ALIBI | ANEKI |
| BLAME IT ON K J | BLAZING BEAUTY | BLUE MOUNTAINS | BOBBY M'S GIRL | BOOTLEG RUNNER |
| COACH CASE | CONSENSUS VIEW | CORVUS | DETERMINEDFINISHER | DILIELLO |
| ENTICED MASTER | GALICAT | GANDERELLA | GOOD BALI | GORDY |
| KAZ TORO | KID BILLY | LOMBARDO | LUCKY DRAGON | MANOR PARK |
| MAXIMUM HEAT | MCRYE | MIGHTY MISS | MONTE AVI | MR DAN |
| READY SET ROLL | RESILIENT HERO | ROCKABYE | RUN FLAT | SAINTLY VILLAIN |
| SCREAMING UNCLE | SENIOR LENDER | SHARED AMBITION | SMILENSAYCHEESE | SOCIABLY JOHNNY |
| SORRENTINO | STAND THE RAIN | STREAM IT | SUPREME GOOD | TAKE CHARGE SMARTY |
| TENEBRIS | TERM PREMIUM | THE OBLITERATOR | TIZ THE LADY | TOES |
| VALENTINE CRUSADER | VICKED | WHITBY | WITHOUT PRETENCE | ZAP THAT GHOST |
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