Posted inAnalysis Picks

Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Churchill Downs, November 11, 2026

No CommentsPosted inAnalysis, Picks

AI Morning Update — overnight changes applied

Our AI picks are computed the night before from the official past performances. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes — the same information the human experts have when they publish — and re-rank any affected race. In maiden races, where late money has the best record, Algo 2's morning pick follows the live betting favourite once the pool is open. Changes from last night's published picks are listed here.

TrackRaceModelNew Top PickWhy
CDX5Model Algo 1#4 – American Veteran4 scratch(es)
CDX5Model Algo 2 (Ensemble)#4 – American Veteran4 scratch(es)
CDX5Model Algo 3 (Win Prob)#4 – American Veteran4 scratch(es)
CDX5Model Weight set 3#4 – American Veteran4 scratch(es)

Plays voided by scratches — these published value plays are officially scratched; win bets on them are refunds, so strike them from your card:

  • Trifecta play: CD Race 5 — Mo Way (SCRATCHED)
  • Edge Radar: CDX Race 8 — Stackin Sats (SCRATCHED)


Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

 

How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets (every race where one of our AI algorithms agrees with the expert consensus); Insider adds Algo 2 and the sharper Best Bets list, only the races where Algo 2 agrees with the experts; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $55,000
◆ Strong spot — an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:7Don't Say It (9/5)
Place:3Best Cupcake (3/1)
Show:4Turf Rocket (7/2)
Other contenders:6Vicki Rose (4/1), 5Patty Cakes (8/1)
Rest of field:1Street Painter (12/1), 2Mombayla (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 734651
🎯 Longshots: 7531642
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #3, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $92,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Salty Viking (8/5)
Place:5Mo Octane (3/1)
Show:6Moycullen (4/1)
Other contenders:1Charging Force (5/1), 3Linus (6/1), 2Lux Aeterna (8/1)
Rest of field:8Gogoplex (10/1), 7Patricio (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 456132
🎯 Longshots: 45632187
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $71,000
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Onthestage (8/5)
Place:5National Eclipse (5/2)
Show:2J B Strikes Back (9/2)
Other contenders:1Mena (5/1), 4Dai Vernon (6/1)
Rest of field:3Neon Nights (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 652143
🎯 Longshots: 653214
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Belzoni (7/5)
Place:8Kamassa (7/2)
Show:4Torcello (5/1)
Other contenders:7Star Of The Union (6/1), 5The Last Campaign (8/1), 3Wiley Operator (10/1)
Rest of field:2Johnny Wyoming (15/1), 1Acuff (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 684753
🎯 Longshots: 68475312
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #8, #4, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:8Mo Way (5/2)
Place:4American Veteran (3/1)
Show:10Mo Misery (8/1)
Other contenders:12Rivelli (12/1), 11Col Frank Slade (6/1), 15Castle Pines (6/1), 16Best Screenplay (12/1), 9Kauffman (10/1)
Rest of field:1Which One (10/1), 5Sweeten The Pot (15/1), 13Platinum Power (15/1), 14Code Of Arms (20/1), 7Voa Broadway (15/1), 2Forty One Carrots (20/1), 3Epic Sanguine (30/1), 6Midway Gold (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 8411101512
🎯 Longshots: 84121011169113155714236
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #4, #10, #12  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $62,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Lost Chord (9/2)
Place:10Faire Plaisir (5/2)
Show:9Cara Felce (6/1)
Other contenders:4Love Knicks Hart (7/2), 2Muffin Music (8/1), 5Hold My Halo (10/1)
Rest of field:1Tizianna (12/1), 8Modern Sound (15/1), 7Galatina (20/1), 3Mom's Cheesecake (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 6104925
🎯 Longshots: 21569104783
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #10, #9, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $48,000
Win:12Cybersteel (9/5)
Place:1Enoughisenough (9/2)
Show:9Glacier (6/1)
Other contenders:7Uncle With Money (12/1), 5Clever Heist (8/1), 10Grand Opry (8/1), 8Lawson's Legacy (10/1)
Rest of field:3High Status (20/1), 2Camping Siete (20/1), 4Kilmaloo (20/1), 11Centricity (30/1), 6Reach For Glory (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 12195710
🎯 Longshots: 127159384102116
🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #1, #9, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $127,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:10Irish Law (4/1)
Place:14Just Buy It (7/2)
Show:1Sinister Smile (5/1)
Other contenders:13Beautiful War (9/2), 3Without Caution (6/1), 7Golden Channel (8/1), 5Sheriff Bart (10/1), 6Natural Rights (8/1)
Rest of field:2City Of Oscars (6/1), 15Stackin Sats (10/1), 16Unitas (15/1), 9Atlal (20/1), 4Epic Horsepower (12/1), 11Taterpie (15/1), 8Time For Money (20/1), 12Ready For Peace (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 141011337
🎯 Longshots: 56710141931311151624812
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #14, #1, #13  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $92,000
◇ Thin spot — race 9 or later: the AI Ensemble has not beaten the morning-line favourite this late on the card. Treat with less confidence.
Win:10Double Arrow (4/1)
Place:12Final Statement (3/1)
Show:5Mcdavid (6/1)
Other contenders:8Beam Tracker (6/1), 4Five For Four (8/1), 6Francisco (10/1), 11High Hard One (8/1)
Rest of field:9Knicks Warrior (20/1), 3Defrosted (20/1), 1Crispy Cool (20/1), 2Arbitrage (30/1), 7One Cent (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 121058411
🎯 Longshots: 121058411693172
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #12, #5, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $55,000
Win:7Don't Say It (9/5) 37% · fair 3-2
Place:3Best Cupcake (3/1) 20% · fair 4-1 underlay -26%
Show:6Vicki Rose (4/1) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -35%
Other contenders:4Turf Rocket (7/2) 14% · fair 13-2 underlay -45%, 5Patty Cakes (8/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -29%
Rest of field:1Street Painter (12/1) 4% · fair 45-2 underlay -47%, 2Mombayla (20/1) 3% · fair 29-1 underlay -31%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Don'T Say It — 36.8% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Don'T Say It36.8% ◀Best Cupcake — 19.8% win probability, morning line 3/1Best Cupcake19.8%Vicki Rose — 14.0% win probability, morning line 4/1Vicki Rose14.0%Turf Rocket — 13.7% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Turf Rocket13.7%Patty Cakes — 8.2% win probability, morning line 8/1Patty Cakes8.2%Street Painter — 4.2% win probability, morning line 12/1Street Painter4.2%Mombayla — 3.3% win probability, morning line 20/1Mombayla3.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Don'T Say It36.8%1.8/1
Best Cupcake19.8%3/1
Vicki Rose14.0%4/1
Turf Rocket13.7%3.5/1
Patty Cakes8.2%8/1
Street Painter4.2%12/1
Mombayla3.3%20/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherDon'T Say It: model 36.8% vs market 28.2% (+8.6 points)Don'T Say It+8.6Best Cupcake: model 19.8% vs market 19.8% (+0.0 points)Best Cupcake+0.0Vicki Rose: model 14.0% vs market 15.8% (-1.8 points)Vicki Rose-1.8Turf Rocket: model 13.7% vs market 17.6% (-3.9 points)Turf Rocket-3.9Patty Cakes: model 8.2% vs market 8.8% (-0.6 points)Patty Cakes-0.6Street Painter: model 4.2% vs market 6.1% (-1.8 points)Street Painter-1.8Mombayla: model 3.3% vs market 3.8% (-0.4 points)Mombayla-0.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Don'T Say It36.8%28.2%+8.6
Best Cupcake19.8%19.8%+0.0
Vicki Rose14.0%15.8%-1.8
Turf Rocket13.7%17.6%-3.9
Patty Cakes8.2%8.8%-0.6
Street Painter4.2%6.1%-1.8
Mombayla3.3%3.8%-0.4
🌧️ Off-track: 734651
🎯 Longshots: 7531642
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #3, #6, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $92,000
Win:5Mo Octane (3/1) 26% · fair 3-1
Place:4Salty Viking (8/5) 23% · fair 7-2 underlay -51%
Show:6Moycullen (4/1) 18% · fair 9-2
Other contenders:1Charging Force (5/1) 15% · fair 11-2, 2Lux Aeterna (8/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -32%, 3Linus (6/1) 5% · fair 39-2 underlay -69%
Rest of field:8Gogoplex (10/1) 3% · fair 33-1 underlay -70%, 7Patricio (15/1) 2% · fair 107-2 underlay -72%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Mo Octane — 25.7% win probability, morning line 3/1Mo Octane25.7% ◀Salty Viking — 23.4% win probability, morning line 1.6/1Salty Viking23.4%Moycullen — 18.2% win probability, morning line 4/1Moycullen18.2%Charging Force — 15.2% win probability, morning line 5/1Charging Force15.2%Lux Aeterna — 7.8% win probability, morning line 8/1Lux Aeterna7.8%Linus — 4.9% win probability, morning line 6/1Linus4.9%Gogoplex — 2.9% win probability, morning line 10/1Gogoplex2.9%Patricio — 1.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Patricio1.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Mo Octane25.7%3/1
Salty Viking23.4%1.6/1
Moycullen18.2%4/1
Charging Force15.2%5/1
Lux Aeterna7.8%8/1
Linus4.9%6/1
Gogoplex2.9%10/1
Patricio1.8%15/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherMo Octane: model 25.7% vs market 17.7% (+8.0 points)Mo Octane+8.0Salty Viking: model 23.4% vs market 27.3% (-3.9 points)Salty Viking-3.9Moycullen: model 18.2% vs market 14.2% (+4.0 points)Moycullen+4.0Charging Force: model 15.2% vs market 11.8% (+3.4 points)Charging Force+3.4Lux Aeterna: model 7.8% vs market 7.9% (-0.1 points)Lux Aeterna-0.1Linus: model 4.9% vs market 10.1% (-5.3 points)Linus-5.3Gogoplex: model 2.9% vs market 6.5% (-3.5 points)Gogoplex-3.5Patricio: model 1.8% vs market 4.4% (-2.6 points)Patricio-2.6

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Mo Octane25.7%17.7%+8.0
Salty Viking23.4%27.3%-3.9
Moycullen18.2%14.2%+4.0
Charging Force15.2%11.8%+3.4
Lux Aeterna7.8%7.9%-0.1
Linus4.9%10.1%-5.3
Gogoplex2.9%6.5%-3.5
Patricio1.8%4.4%-2.6
🌧️ Off-track: 456132
🎯 Longshots: 45632187
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $71,000
Win:6Onthestage (8/5) 30% · fair 5-2 underlay -33%
Place:2J B Strikes Back (9/2) 20% · fair 4-1
Show:5National Eclipse (5/2) 19% · fair 9-2 underlay -42%
Other contenders:1Mena (5/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -33%, 4Dai Vernon (6/1) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -28%
Rest of field:3Neon Nights (8/1) 9% · fair 19-2
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Onthestage — 29.7% win probability, morning line 1.6/1Onthestage29.7% ◀J B Strikes Back — 19.6% win probability, morning line 4.5/1J B Strikes Back19.6%National Eclipse — 18.9% win probability, morning line 2.5/1National Eclipse18.9%Mena — 11.8% win probability, morning line 5/1Mena11.8%Dai Vernon — 10.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Dai Vernon10.7%Neon Nights — 9.5% win probability, morning line 8/1Neon Nights9.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Onthestage29.7%1.6/1
J B Strikes Back19.6%4.5/1
National Eclipse18.9%2.5/1
Mena11.8%5/1
Dai Vernon10.7%6/1
Neon Nights9.5%8/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherOnthestage: model 29.7% vs market 30.2% (-0.6 points)Onthestage-0.6J B Strikes Back: model 19.6% vs market 14.3% (+5.3 points)J B Strikes Back+5.3National Eclipse: model 18.9% vs market 22.4% (-3.6 points)National Eclipse-3.6Mena: model 11.8% vs market 13.1% (-1.3 points)Mena-1.3Dai Vernon: model 10.7% vs market 11.2% (-0.5 points)Dai Vernon-0.5Neon Nights: model 9.5% vs market 8.7% (+0.7 points)Neon Nights+0.7

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Onthestage29.7%30.2%-0.6
J B Strikes Back19.6%14.3%+5.3
National Eclipse18.9%22.4%-3.6
Mena11.8%13.1%-1.3
Dai Vernon10.7%11.2%-0.5
Neon Nights9.5%8.7%+0.7
🌧️ Off-track: 652143
🎯 Longshots: 653214
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:6Belzoni (7/5) 67% · fair 2-5 overlay +187%
Place:8Kamassa (7/2) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -26%
Show:5The Last Campaign (8/1) 6% · fair 15-1 underlay -46%
Other contenders:4Torcello (5/1) 3% · fair 30-1 underlay -83%, 7Star Of The Union (6/1) 3% · fair 37-1 underlay -84%, 3Wiley Operator (10/1) 2% · fair 115-2 underlay -83%
Rest of field:2Johnny Wyoming (15/1) 1% · fair 191-2 underlay -84%, 1Acuff (12/1) 1% · fair 379-2 underlay -94%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Belzoni — 67.2% win probability, morning line 1.4/1Belzoni67.2% ◀Kamassa — 17.4% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Kamassa17.4%The Last Campaign — 6.3% win probability, morning line 8/1The Last Campaign6.3%Torcello — 3.2% win probability, morning line 5/1Torcello3.2%Star Of The Union — 2.6% win probability, morning line 6/1Star Of The Union2.6%Wiley Operator — 1.7% win probability, morning line 10/1Wiley Operator1.7%Johnny Wyoming — 1.0% win probability, morning line 15/1Johnny Wyoming1.0%Acuff — 0.5% win probability, morning line 12/1Acuff0.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Belzoni67.2%1.4/1
Kamassa17.4%3.5/1
The Last Campaign6.3%8/1
Torcello3.2%5/1
Star Of The Union2.6%6/1
Wiley Operator1.7%10/1
Johnny Wyoming1.0%15/1
Acuff0.5%12/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherBelzoni: model 67.2% vs market 32.3% (+34.9 points)Belzoni+34.9Kamassa: model 17.4% vs market 17.2% (+0.1 points)Kamassa+0.1The Last Campaign: model 6.3% vs market 8.6% (-2.3 points)The Last Campaign-2.3Torcello: model 3.2% vs market 12.9% (-9.7 points)Torcello-9.7Star Of The Union: model 2.6% vs market 11.1% (-8.4 points)Star Of The Union-8.4Wiley Operator: model 1.7% vs market 7.0% (-5.3 points)Wiley Operator-5.3Johnny Wyoming: model 1.0% vs market 4.8% (-3.8 points)Johnny Wyoming-3.8Acuff: model 0.5% vs market 6.0% (-5.4 points)Acuff-5.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Belzoni67.2%32.3%+34.9
Kamassa17.4%17.2%+0.1
The Last Campaign6.3%8.6%-2.3
Torcello3.2%12.9%-9.7
Star Of The Union2.6%11.1%-8.4
Wiley Operator1.7%7.0%-5.3
Johnny Wyoming1.0%4.8%-3.8
Acuff0.5%6.0%-5.4
🌧️ Off-track: 684753
🎯 Longshots: 68475312
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #8, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:8Mo Way (5/2) 21% · fair 7-2 underlay -33%
Place:4American Veteran (3/1) 14% · fair 13-2 underlay -52%
Show:10Mo Misery (8/1) 10% · fair 17-2
Other contenders:11Col Frank Slade (6/1) 9% · fair 10-1 underlay -40%, 15Castle Pines (6/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -43%, 12Rivelli (12/1) 6% · fair 29-2, 16Best Screenplay (12/1) 6% · fair 33-2 underlay -28%, 5Sweeten The Pot (15/1) 5% · fair 35-2
Rest of field:1Which One (10/1) 5% · fair 19-1 underlay -48%, 9Kauffman (10/1) 4% · fair 53-2 underlay -62%, 13Platinum Power (15/1) 3% · fair 29-1 underlay -49%, 14Code Of Arms (20/1) 3% · fair 36-1 underlay -44%, 7Voa Broadway (15/1) 2% · fair 54-1 underlay -72%, 2Forty One Carrots (20/1) 1% · fair 78-1 underlay -74%, 6Midway Gold (30/1) 1% · fair 98-1 underlay -69%, 3Epic Sanguine (30/1) 1% · fair 121-1 underlay -75%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Mo Way — 21.1% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Mo Way21.1% ◀American Veteran — 13.7% win probability, morning line 3/1American Veteran13.7%Mo Misery — 10.5% win probability, morning line 8/1Mo Misery10.5%Col Frank Slade — 9.0% win probability, morning line 6/1Col Frank Slade9.0%Castle Pines — 8.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Castle Pines8.7%Rivelli — 6.4% win probability, morning line 12/1Rivelli6.4%Best Screenplay — 5.6% win probability, morning line 12/1Best Screenplay5.6%Sweeten The Pot — 5.5% win probability, morning line 15/1Sweeten The Pot5.5%Which One — 4.9% win probability, morning line 10/1Which One4.9%Kauffman — 3.6% win probability, morning line 10/1Kauffman3.6%Platinum Power — 3.3% win probability, morning line 15/1Platinum Power3.3%Code Of Arms — 2.7% win probability, morning line 20/1Code Of Arms2.7%Voa Broadway — 1.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Voa Broadway1.8%Forty One Carrots — 1.3% win probability, morning line 20/1Forty One Carrots1.3%Midway Gold — 1.0% win probability, morning line 30/1Midway Gold1.0%Epic Sanguine — 0.8% win probability, morning line 30/1Epic Sanguine0.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Mo Way21.1%2.5/1
American Veteran13.7%3/1
Mo Misery10.5%8/1
Col Frank Slade9.0%6/1
Castle Pines8.7%6/1
Rivelli6.4%12/1
Best Screenplay5.6%12/1
Sweeten The Pot5.5%15/1
Which One4.9%10/1
Kauffman3.6%10/1
Platinum Power3.3%15/1
Code Of Arms2.7%20/1
Voa Broadway1.8%15/1
Forty One Carrots1.3%20/1
Midway Gold1.0%30/1
Epic Sanguine0.8%30/1
🌧️ Off-track: 841115101
🎯 Longshots: 84121011169113155714236
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #4, #10, #11  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $62,000
Win:6Lost Chord (9/2) 21% · fair 7-2
Place:4Love Knicks Hart (7/2) 18% · fair 9-2
Show:9Cara Felce (6/1) 14% · fair 6-1
Other contenders:2Muffin Music (8/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 10Faire Plaisir (5/2) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -70%, 1Tizianna (12/1) 7% · fair 25-2
Rest of field:5Hold My Halo (10/1) 7% · fair 14-1 underlay -28%, 7Galatina (20/1) 4% · fair 53-2, 8Modern Sound (15/1) 4% · fair 27-1 underlay -45%, 3Mom's Cheesecake (20/1) 3% · fair 73-2 underlay -45%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Lost Chord — 21.3% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Lost Chord21.3% ◀Love Knicks Hart — 17.9% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Love Knicks Hart17.9%Cara Felce — 14.5% win probability, morning line 6/1Cara Felce14.5%Muffin Music — 11.8% win probability, morning line 8/1Muffin Music11.8%Faire Plaisir — 10.6% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Faire Plaisir10.6%Tizianna — 7.3% win probability, morning line 12/1Tizianna7.3%Hold My Halo — 6.7% win probability, morning line 10/1Hold My Halo6.7%Galatina — 3.7% win probability, morning line 20/1Galatina3.7%Modern Sound — 3.6% win probability, morning line 15/1Modern Sound3.6%Mom'S Cheesecake — 2.7% win probability, morning line 20/1Mom'S Cheesecake2.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Lost Chord21.3%4.5/1
Love Knicks Hart17.9%3.5/1
Cara Felce14.5%6/1
Muffin Music11.8%8/1
Faire Plaisir10.6%2.5/1
Tizianna7.3%12/1
Hold My Halo6.7%10/1
Galatina3.7%20/1
Modern Sound3.6%15/1
Mom'S Cheesecake2.7%20/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherLost Chord: model 21.3% vs market 14.3% (+6.9 points)Lost Chord+6.9Love Knicks Hart: model 17.9% vs market 17.5% (+0.4 points)Love Knicks Hart+0.4Cara Felce: model 14.5% vs market 11.3% (+3.2 points)Cara Felce+3.2Muffin Music: model 11.8% vs market 8.8% (+3.1 points)Muffin Music+3.1Faire Plaisir: model 10.6% vs market 22.5% (-11.9 points)Faire Plaisir-11.9Tizianna: model 7.3% vs market 6.1% (+1.2 points)Tizianna+1.2Hold My Halo: model 6.7% vs market 7.2% (-0.5 points)Hold My Halo-0.5Galatina: model 3.7% vs market 3.8% (-0.1 points)Galatina-0.1Modern Sound: model 3.6% vs market 4.9% (-1.4 points)Modern Sound-1.4Mom'S Cheesecake: model 2.7% vs market 3.8% (-1.1 points)Mom'S Cheesecake-1.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Lost Chord21.3%14.3%+6.9
Love Knicks Hart17.9%17.5%+0.4
Cara Felce14.5%11.3%+3.2
Muffin Music11.8%8.8%+3.1
Faire Plaisir10.6%22.5%-11.9
Tizianna7.3%6.1%+1.2
Hold My Halo6.7%7.2%-0.5
Galatina3.7%3.8%-0.1
Modern Sound3.6%4.9%-1.4
Mom'S Cheesecake2.7%3.8%-1.1
🌧️ Off-track: 6410925
🎯 Longshots: 21569104783
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #9, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $48,000
Win:12Cybersteel (9/5) 36% · fair 2-1
Place:1Enoughisenough (9/2) 14% · fair 6-1
Show:7Uncle With Money (12/1) 10% · fair 19-2 overlay +26%
Other contenders:9Glacier (6/1) 9% · fair 10-1 underlay -40%, 5Clever Heist (8/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -41%, 8Lawson's Legacy (10/1) 6% · fair 33-2 underlay -39%, 10Grand Opry (8/1) 5% · fair 35-2 underlay -54%
Rest of field:3High Status (20/1) 5% · fair 18-1, 4Kilmaloo (20/1) 2% · fair 85-2 underlay -53%, 2Camping Siete (20/1) 2% · fair 43-1 underlay -54%, 11Centricity (30/1) 2% · fair 54-1 underlay -45%, 6Reach For Glory (30/1) 1% · fair 181-2 underlay -67%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Cybersteel — 36.2% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Cybersteel36.2% ◀Enoughisenough — 14.4% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Enoughisenough14.4%Uncle With Money — 9.5% win probability, morning line 12/1Uncle With Money9.5%Glacier — 9.1% win probability, morning line 6/1Glacier9.1%Clever Heist — 6.9% win probability, morning line 8/1Clever Heist6.9%Lawson'S Legacy — 5.7% win probability, morning line 10/1Lawson'S Legacy5.7%Grand Opry — 5.4% win probability, morning line 8/1Grand Opry5.4%High Status — 5.3% win probability, morning line 20/1High Status5.3%Kilmaloo — 2.3% win probability, morning line 20/1Kilmaloo2.3%Camping Siete — 2.3% win probability, morning line 20/1Camping Siete2.3%Centricity — 1.8% win probability, morning line 30/1Centricity1.8%Reach For Glory — 1.1% win probability, morning line 30/1Reach For Glory1.1%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Cybersteel36.2%1.8/1
Enoughisenough14.4%4.5/1
Uncle With Money9.5%12/1
Glacier9.1%6/1
Clever Heist6.9%8/1
Lawson'S Legacy5.7%10/1
Grand Opry5.4%8/1
High Status5.3%20/1
Kilmaloo2.3%20/1
Camping Siete2.3%20/1
Centricity1.8%30/1
Reach For Glory1.1%30/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherCybersteel: model 36.2% vs market 27.9% (+8.3 points)Cybersteel+8.3Enoughisenough: model 14.4% vs market 14.2% (+0.2 points)Enoughisenough+0.2Uncle With Money: model 9.5% vs market 6.0% (+3.5 points)Uncle With Money+3.5Glacier: model 9.1% vs market 11.2% (-2.0 points)Glacier-2.0Clever Heist: model 6.9% vs market 8.7% (-1.8 points)Clever Heist-1.8Lawson'S Legacy: model 5.7% vs market 7.1% (-1.4 points)Lawson'S Legacy-1.4Grand Opry: model 5.4% vs market 8.7% (-3.3 points)Grand Opry-3.3High Status: model 5.3% vs market 3.7% (+1.5 points)High Status+1.5Kilmaloo: model 2.3% vs market 3.7% (-1.4 points)Kilmaloo-1.4Camping Siete: model 2.3% vs market 3.7% (-1.5 points)Camping Siete-1.5Centricity: model 1.8% vs market 2.5% (-0.7 points)Centricity-0.7Reach For Glory: model 1.1% vs market 2.5% (-1.4 points)Reach For Glory-1.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Cybersteel36.2%27.9%+8.3
Enoughisenough14.4%14.2%+0.2
Uncle With Money9.5%6.0%+3.5
Glacier9.1%11.2%-2.0
Clever Heist6.9%8.7%-1.8
Lawson'S Legacy5.7%7.1%-1.4
Grand Opry5.4%8.7%-3.3
High Status5.3%3.7%+1.5
Kilmaloo2.3%3.7%-1.4
Camping Siete2.3%3.7%-1.5
Centricity1.8%2.5%-0.7
Reach For Glory1.1%2.5%-1.4
🌧️ Off-track: 12195107
🎯 Longshots: 127159384102116
🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #1, #7, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $127,000
Win:14Just Buy It (7/2) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -48%
Place:10Irish Law (4/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -45%
Show:13Beautiful War (9/2) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -41%
Other contenders:1Sinister Smile (5/1) 9% · fair 10-1 underlay -51%, 2City Of Oscars (6/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -51%, 5Sheriff Bart (10/1) 7% · fair 13-1, 6Natural Rights (8/1) 7% · fair 13-1 underlay -39%, 7Golden Channel (8/1) 7% · fair 13-1 underlay -39%
Rest of field:3Without Caution (6/1) 5% · fair 18-1 underlay -67%, 16Unitas (15/1) 4% · fair 47-2 underlay -36%, 4Epic Horsepower (12/1) 4% · fair 49-2 underlay -51%, 15Stackin Sats (10/1) 3% · fair 29-1 underlay -66%, 9Atlal (20/1) 3% · fair 32-1 underlay -37%, 11Taterpie (15/1) 3% · fair 36-1 underlay -58%, 8Time For Money (20/1) 2% · fair 111-2 underlay -64%, 12Ready For Peace (15/1) 2% · fair 125-2 underlay -76%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Just Buy It — 12.9% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Just Buy It12.9% ◀Irish Law — 12.1% win probability, morning line 4/1Irish Law12.1%Beautiful War — 11.5% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Beautiful War11.5%Sinister Smile — 8.9% win probability, morning line 5/1Sinister Smile8.9%City Of Oscars — 7.6% win probability, morning line 6/1City Of Oscars7.6%Sheriff Bart — 7.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Sheriff Bart7.1%Natural Rights — 7.1% win probability, morning line 8/1Natural Rights7.1%Golden Channel — 7.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Golden Channel7.0%Without Caution — 5.3% win probability, morning line 6/1Without Caution5.3%Unitas — 4.1% win probability, morning line 15/1Unitas4.1%Epic Horsepower — 3.9% win probability, morning line 12/1Epic Horsepower3.9%Stackin Sats — 3.3% win probability, morning line 10/1Stackin Sats3.3%Atlal — 3.0% win probability, morning line 20/1Atlal3.0%Taterpie — 2.7% win probability, morning line 15/1Taterpie2.7%Time For Money — 1.8% win probability, morning line 20/1Time For Money1.8%Ready For Peace — 1.6% win probability, morning line 15/1Ready For Peace1.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Just Buy It12.9%3.5/1
Irish Law12.1%4/1
Beautiful War11.5%4.5/1
Sinister Smile8.9%5/1
City Of Oscars7.6%6/1
Sheriff Bart7.1%10/1
Natural Rights7.1%8/1
Golden Channel7.0%8/1
Without Caution5.3%6/1
Unitas4.1%15/1
Epic Horsepower3.9%12/1
Stackin Sats3.3%10/1
Atlal3.0%20/1
Taterpie2.7%15/1
Time For Money1.8%20/1
Ready For Peace1.6%15/1
🌧️ Off-track: 141013126
🎯 Longshots: 56710141931311151624812
🎫 Trifecta play: #14 over #10, #13, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $92,000
Win:10Double Arrow (4/1) 43% · fair 3-2 overlay +204%
Place:12Final Statement (3/1) 14% · fair 13-2 underlay -52%
Show:5Mcdavid (6/1) 9% · fair 10-1 underlay -39%
Other contenders:8Beam Tracker (6/1) 7% · fair 29-2 underlay -58%, 6Francisco (10/1) 5% · fair 35-2 underlay -42%, 11High Hard One (8/1) 5% · fair 18-1 underlay -56%, 4Five For Four (8/1) 5% · fair 37-2 underlay -57%
Rest of field:9Knicks Warrior (20/1) 4% · fair 25-1, 3Defrosted (20/1) 2% · fair 87-2 underlay -54%, 7One Cent (20/1) 2% · fair 47-1 underlay -57%, 1Crispy Cool (20/1) 2% · fair 51-1 underlay -61%, 2Arbitrage (30/1) 1% · fair 66-1 underlay -54%
Race 9 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Double Arrow — 43.2% win probability, morning line 4/1Double Arrow43.2% ◀Final Statement — 13.7% win probability, morning line 3/1Final Statement13.7%Mcdavid — 9.3% win probability, morning line 6/1Mcdavid9.3%Beam Tracker — 6.5% win probability, morning line 6/1Beam Tracker6.5%Francisco — 5.5% win probability, morning line 10/1Francisco5.5%High Hard One — 5.2% win probability, morning line 8/1High Hard One5.2%Five For Four — 5.1% win probability, morning line 8/1Five For Four5.1%Knicks Warrior — 3.8% win probability, morning line 20/1Knicks Warrior3.8%Defrosted — 2.2% win probability, morning line 20/1Defrosted2.2%One Cent — 2.1% win probability, morning line 20/1One Cent2.1%Crispy Cool — 1.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Crispy Cool1.9%Arbitrage — 1.5% win probability, morning line 30/1Arbitrage1.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Double Arrow43.2%4/1
Final Statement13.7%3/1
Mcdavid9.3%6/1
Beam Tracker6.5%6/1
Francisco5.5%10/1
High Hard One5.2%8/1
Five For Four5.1%8/1
Knicks Warrior3.8%20/1
Defrosted2.2%20/1
One Cent2.1%20/1
Crispy Cool1.9%20/1
Arbitrage1.5%30/1
Race 9 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherDouble Arrow: model 43.2% vs market 15.7% (+27.4 points)Double Arrow+27.4Final Statement: model 13.7% vs market 19.7% (-6.0 points)Final Statement-6.0Mcdavid: model 9.3% vs market 11.2% (-2.0 points)Mcdavid-2.0Beam Tracker: model 6.5% vs market 11.2% (-4.7 points)Beam Tracker-4.7Francisco: model 5.5% vs market 7.1% (-1.7 points)Francisco-1.7High Hard One: model 5.2% vs market 8.7% (-3.5 points)High Hard One-3.5Five For Four: model 5.1% vs market 8.7% (-3.6 points)Five For Four-3.6Knicks Warrior: model 3.8% vs market 3.7% (+0.1 points)Knicks Warrior+0.1Defrosted: model 2.2% vs market 3.7% (-1.5 points)Defrosted-1.5One Cent: model 2.1% vs market 3.7% (-1.7 points)One Cent-1.7Crispy Cool: model 1.9% vs market 3.7% (-1.8 points)Crispy Cool-1.8Arbitrage: model 1.5% vs market 2.5% (-1.0 points)Arbitrage-1.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Double Arrow43.2%15.7%+27.4
Final Statement13.7%19.7%-6.0
Mcdavid9.3%11.2%-2.0
Beam Tracker6.5%11.2%-4.7
Francisco5.5%7.1%-1.7
High Hard One5.2%8.7%-3.5
Five For Four5.1%8.7%-3.6
Knicks Warrior3.8%3.7%+0.1
Defrosted2.2%3.7%-1.5
One Cent2.1%3.7%-1.7
Crispy Cool1.9%3.7%-1.8
Arbitrage1.5%2.5%-1.0
🌧️ Off-track: 101258114
🎯 Longshots: 121058411693172
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #12, #5, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
Algo 1 (Weighted Rating) at Churchill Downs — average winning payout

What a $2 win bet returned WHEN THE PICK WON. 521 graded races at Churchill Downs, 2026-04-25 to 2026-11-08.

$0$2$4$6$7Our top pick: $5.97 from 145 racesOur top pick$5.97Morning-line favourite: $5.18 from 143 racesMorning-line favourite$5.18

This is the size of a winning payout, not a measure of profit — a pick that wins less often at a longer price can average more per winner and still lose money over the month. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupAverage payoutWinners
Our top pick$5.97145
Morning-line favourite$5.18143
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $55,000
Win:7Don't Say It (9/5)
Place:3Best Cupcake (3/1)
Show:4Turf Rocket (7/2)
Other contenders:6Vicki Rose (4/1), 5Patty Cakes (8/1)
Rest of field:1Street Painter (12/1), 2Mombayla (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 734651
🎯 Longshots: 7531642
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #3, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $92,000
Win:4Salty Viking (8/5)
Place:6Moycullen (4/1)
Show:5Mo Octane (3/1)
Other contenders:1Charging Force (5/1), 2Lux Aeterna (8/1), 3Linus (6/1)
Rest of field:8Gogoplex (10/1), 7Patricio (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 456132
🎯 Longshots: 45632187
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $71,000
Win:6Onthestage (8/5)
Place:5National Eclipse (5/2)
Show:2J B Strikes Back (9/2)
Other contenders:1Mena (5/1), 3Neon Nights (8/1)
Rest of field:4Dai Vernon (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 652143
🎯 Longshots: 653214
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:6Belzoni (7/5)
Place:8Kamassa (7/2)
Show:5The Last Campaign (8/1)
Other contenders:4Torcello (5/1), 7Star Of The Union (6/1), 3Wiley Operator (10/1)
Rest of field:1Acuff (12/1), 2Johnny Wyoming (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 684753
🎯 Longshots: 68475312
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #8, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:8Mo Way (5/2)
Place:4American Veteran (3/1)
Show:11Col Frank Slade (6/1)
Other contenders:10Mo Misery (8/1), 12Rivelli (12/1), 15Castle Pines (6/1), 5Sweeten The Pot (15/1), 16Best Screenplay (12/1)
Rest of field:13Platinum Power (15/1), 1Which One (10/1), 9Kauffman (10/1), 14Code Of Arms (20/1), 7Voa Broadway (15/1), 2Forty One Carrots (20/1), 6Midway Gold (30/1), 3Epic Sanguine (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 8411151012
🎯 Longshots: 84121011169113155714236
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #4, #11, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $62,000
Win:6Lost Chord (9/2)
Place:10Faire Plaisir (5/2)
Show:4Love Knicks Hart (7/2)
Other contenders:2Muffin Music (8/1), 9Cara Felce (6/1), 1Tizianna (12/1)
Rest of field:5Hold My Halo (10/1), 7Galatina (20/1), 3Mom's Cheesecake (20/1), 8Modern Sound (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1064925
🎯 Longshots: 21569104783
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #10, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $48,000
Win:12Cybersteel (9/5)
Place:1Enoughisenough (9/2)
Show:9Glacier (6/1)
Other contenders:5Clever Heist (8/1), 10Grand Opry (8/1), 7Uncle With Money (12/1), 3High Status (20/1)
Rest of field:8Lawson's Legacy (10/1), 2Camping Siete (20/1), 4Kilmaloo (20/1), 11Centricity (30/1), 6Reach For Glory (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 12195108
🎯 Longshots: 127159384102116
🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #1, #9, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $127,000
Win:10Irish Law (4/1)
Place:1Sinister Smile (5/1)
Show:13Beautiful War (9/2)
Other contenders:14Just Buy It (7/2), 6Natural Rights (8/1), 7Golden Channel (8/1), 5Sheriff Bart (10/1), 3Without Caution (6/1)
Rest of field:2City Of Oscars (6/1), 11Taterpie (15/1), 16Unitas (15/1), 15Stackin Sats (10/1), 4Epic Horsepower (12/1), 9Atlal (20/1), 12Ready For Peace (15/1), 8Time For Money (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 101413132
🎯 Longshots: 56710141931311151624812
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #1, #13, #14  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $92,000
Win:10Double Arrow (4/1)
Place:9Knicks Warrior (20/1)
Show:12Final Statement (3/1)
Other contenders:5Mcdavid (6/1), 8Beam Tracker (6/1), 4Five For Four (8/1), 11High Hard One (8/1)
Rest of field:6Francisco (10/1), 1Crispy Cool (20/1), 3Defrosted (20/1), 7One Cent (20/1), 2Arbitrage (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 101258411
🎯 Longshots: 121058411693172
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #9, #12, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #7 over #3 ($1 straight; box #7-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #7 over #4, #3, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #4 over #5 ($1 straight; box #4-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #6, #5, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #6 over #5 ($1 straight; box #6-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #5, #2, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #6 over #8 ($1 straight; box #6-#8 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #8, #5, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #8 over #4 ($1 straight; box #8-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #8 over #4, #11, #15 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #6 over #10 ($1 straight; box #6-#10 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #10, #4, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #12 over #1 ($1 straight; box #12-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #12 over #1, #7, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #13 over #10 ($1 straight; box #13-#10 for cover)
Trifecta: #10 over #1, #6, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 9AI Exacta: #12 over #10 ($1 straight; box #12-#10 for cover)
Trifecta: #10 over #9, #12, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Morning-line reliability: +0.38 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)    Weekend sizing: ×0.95 (edge & stake trimmed — weekend longshots win less than their edge implies; the longshot list itself is unchanged)    Price-band calibration: P(win), edge and stake are reduced for horses at 12-to-1 and longer (×0.96 from 12-to-1 up to 20-to-1, ×0.60 at 20-to-1 and longer) because the model has been measured to overstate win chances at those prices; the list of horses is unchanged, and a 20-to-1 horse may now show a negative edge and no stake
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $
bankroll
77Uncle With Money12/1—11.1%+42.0%0.87%$0.87
85Sheriff Bart10/1—11.8%+28.6%0.72%$0.72
512Rivelli12/1—9.1%+17.4%0.36%$0.36
61Tizianna12/1—8.8%+13.6%0.28%$0.28
74Kilmaloo ⚠ high risk: maiden race, 20-1 or longer20/1—3.4%+-27.4%0.00%$0.00
73High Status ⚠ high risk: maiden race, 20-1 or longer20/1—3.2%+-30.4%0.00%$0.00
TOTAL across 6 plays:2.2%$2.24
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
⚠ High risk: 20-1 or longer. Since late June our longshot picks at these odds have won about 3 times in 100 and lost about half of every dollar bet; in maiden races they do worse still.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $55,000
Win:5Patty Cakes (8/1)
Place:7Don't Say It (9/5)
Show:4Turf Rocket (7/2)
Other contenders:3Best Cupcake (3/1), 6Vicki Rose (4/1)
Rest of field:1Street Painter (12/1), 2Mombayla (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 734651
🎯 Longshots: 7531642
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #4, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $92,000
Win:4Salty Viking (8/5)
Place:5Mo Octane (3/1)
Show:6Moycullen (4/1)
Other contenders:1Charging Force (5/1), 3Linus (6/1), 2Lux Aeterna (8/1)
Rest of field:8Gogoplex (10/1), 7Patricio (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 456132
🎯 Longshots: 45632187
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $71,000
Win:6Onthestage (8/5)
Place:5National Eclipse (5/2)
Show:2J B Strikes Back (9/2)
Other contenders:1Mena (5/1), 4Dai Vernon (6/1)
Rest of field:3Neon Nights (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 652143
🎯 Longshots: 653214
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:6Belzoni (7/5)
Place:8Kamassa (7/2)
Show:4Torcello (5/1)
Other contenders:5The Last Campaign (8/1), 7Star Of The Union (6/1), 3Wiley Operator (10/1)
Rest of field:2Johnny Wyoming (15/1), 1Acuff (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 684753
🎯 Longshots: 68475312
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #8, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:4American Veteran (3/1)
Place:8Mo Way (5/2)
Show:11Col Frank Slade (6/1)
Other contenders:15Castle Pines (6/1), 10Mo Misery (8/1), 12Rivelli (12/1), 1Which One (10/1), 16Best Screenplay (12/1)
Rest of field:9Kauffman (10/1), 5Sweeten The Pot (15/1), 7Voa Broadway (15/1), 13Platinum Power (15/1), 2Forty One Carrots (20/1), 14Code Of Arms (20/1), 3Epic Sanguine (30/1), 6Midway Gold (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4811151012
🎯 Longshots: 84121011169113155714236
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #8, #11, #15  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $62,000
Win:6Lost Chord (9/2)
Place:4Love Knicks Hart (7/2)
Show:1Tizianna (12/1)
Other contenders:9Cara Felce (6/1), 2Muffin Music (8/1), 10Faire Plaisir (5/2)
Rest of field:5Hold My Halo (10/1), 3Mom's Cheesecake (20/1), 7Galatina (20/1), 8Modern Sound (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4106921
🎯 Longshots: 21569104783
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #1, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $48,000
Win:9Glacier (6/1)
Place:12Cybersteel (9/5)
Show:7Uncle With Money (12/1)
Other contenders:1Enoughisenough (9/2), 5Clever Heist (8/1), 10Grand Opry (8/1), 4Kilmaloo (20/1)
Rest of field:3High Status (20/1), 8Lawson's Legacy (10/1), 2Camping Siete (20/1), 11Centricity (30/1), 6Reach For Glory (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 12915710
🎯 Longshots: 127159384102116
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #12, #7, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $127,000
Win:10Irish Law (4/1)
Place:1Sinister Smile (5/1)
Show:13Beautiful War (9/2)
Other contenders:5Sheriff Bart (10/1), 3Without Caution (6/1), 7Golden Channel (8/1), 2City Of Oscars (6/1), 14Just Buy It (7/2)
Rest of field:15Stackin Sats (10/1), 6Natural Rights (8/1), 9Atlal (20/1), 4Epic Horsepower (12/1), 16Unitas (15/1), 11Taterpie (15/1), 8Time For Money (20/1), 12Ready For Peace (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 101131432
🎯 Longshots: 56710141931311151624812
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #1, #13, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $92,000
Win:10Double Arrow (4/1)
Place:5Mcdavid (6/1)
Show:12Final Statement (3/1)
Other contenders:8Beam Tracker (6/1), 6Francisco (10/1), 4Five For Four (8/1), 11High Hard One (8/1)
Rest of field:9Knicks Warrior (20/1), 3Defrosted (20/1), 1Crispy Cool (20/1), 7One Cent (20/1), 2Arbitrage (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 101258411
🎯 Longshots: 121058411693172
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #5, #12, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $55,000
Win:7Don't Say It (9/5)
Place:4Turf Rocket (7/2)
Show:3Best Cupcake (3/1)
Other contenders:6Vicki Rose (4/1), 5Patty Cakes (8/1)
Rest of field:1Street Painter (12/1), 2Mombayla (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 734651
🎯 Longshots: 7531642
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #4, #3, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $92,000
Win:4Salty Viking (8/5)
Place:6Moycullen (4/1)
Show:5Mo Octane (3/1)
Other contenders:1Charging Force (5/1), 2Lux Aeterna (8/1), 3Linus (6/1)
Rest of field:8Gogoplex (10/1), 7Patricio (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 456132
🎯 Longshots: 45632187
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $71,000
Win:6Onthestage (8/5)
Place:5National Eclipse (5/2)
Show:2J B Strikes Back (9/2)
Other contenders:1Mena (5/1), 3Neon Nights (8/1)
Rest of field:4Dai Vernon (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 652143
🎯 Longshots: 653214
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:6Belzoni (7/5)
Place:8Kamassa (7/2)
Show:5The Last Campaign (8/1)
Other contenders:4Torcello (5/1), 7Star Of The Union (6/1), 3Wiley Operator (10/1)
Rest of field:2Johnny Wyoming (15/1), 1Acuff (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 684573
🎯 Longshots: 68475312
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #8, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:8Mo Way (5/2)
Place:4American Veteran (3/1)
Show:11Col Frank Slade (6/1)
Other contenders:15Castle Pines (6/1), 10Mo Misery (8/1), 12Rivelli (12/1), 5Sweeten The Pot (15/1), 16Best Screenplay (12/1)
Rest of field:1Which One (10/1), 9Kauffman (10/1), 13Platinum Power (15/1), 14Code Of Arms (20/1), 7Voa Broadway (15/1), 2Forty One Carrots (20/1), 3Epic Sanguine (30/1), 6Midway Gold (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 8411151012
🎯 Longshots: 84121011169113155714236
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #4, #11, #15  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $62,000
Win:6Lost Chord (9/2)
Place:10Faire Plaisir (5/2)
Show:4Love Knicks Hart (7/2)
Other contenders:9Cara Felce (6/1), 2Muffin Music (8/1), 1Tizianna (12/1)
Rest of field:5Hold My Halo (10/1), 7Galatina (20/1), 3Mom's Cheesecake (20/1), 8Modern Sound (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1046925
🎯 Longshots: 21569104783
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #10, #4, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $48,000
Win:12Cybersteel (9/5)
Place:1Enoughisenough (9/2)
Show:7Uncle With Money (12/1)
Other contenders:9Glacier (6/1), 5Clever Heist (8/1), 10Grand Opry (8/1), 3High Status (20/1)
Rest of field:8Lawson's Legacy (10/1), 2Camping Siete (20/1), 4Kilmaloo (20/1), 11Centricity (30/1), 6Reach For Glory (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 12195107
🎯 Longshots: 127159384102116
🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #1, #7, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $127,000
Win:10Irish Law (4/1)
Place:1Sinister Smile (5/1)
Show:6Natural Rights (8/1)
Other contenders:2City Of Oscars (6/1), 14Just Buy It (7/2), 5Sheriff Bart (10/1), 13Beautiful War (9/2), 7Golden Channel (8/1)
Rest of field:3Without Caution (6/1), 15Stackin Sats (10/1), 16Unitas (15/1), 4Epic Horsepower (12/1), 9Atlal (20/1), 11Taterpie (15/1), 12Ready For Peace (15/1), 8Time For Money (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 101411323
🎯 Longshots: 56710141931311151624812
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #1, #6, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $92,000
Win:10Double Arrow (4/1)
Place:9Knicks Warrior (20/1)
Show:12Final Statement (3/1)
Other contenders:5Mcdavid (6/1), 8Beam Tracker (6/1), 4Five For Four (8/1), 6Francisco (10/1)
Rest of field:11High Hard One (8/1), 1Crispy Cool (20/1), 3Defrosted (20/1), 7One Cent (20/1), 2Arbitrage (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 101258411
🎯 Longshots: 121058411693172
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #9, #12, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R1-3R1: #7,#3,#6 (71%) / R2: #5,#4,#6 (67%) / R3: #6,#2,#5 (68%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 32%
Pick 3 R2-4R2: #5,#4,#6 (67%) / R3: #6,#2,#5 (68%) / R4: #6 (67%)
$9 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 31%
Pick 3 R3-5R3: #6,#2,#5 (68%) / R4: #6 (67%) / R5: #8,#4,#10 (45%)
$9 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 21%
Pick 3 R4-6R4: #6 (67%) / R5: #8,#4,#10 (45%) / R6: #6,#4,#9 (54%)
$9 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 16%
Pick 4 R1-4R1: #7,#3,#6 (71%) / R2: #5,#4,#6 (67%) / R3: #6,#2,#5 (68%) / R4: #6 (67%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 22%
Pick 4 R2-5R2: #5,#4,#6 (67%) / R3: #6,#2,#5 (68%) / R4: #6 (67%) / R5: #8,#4,#10 (45%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 14%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
ACUFFAMERICAN VETERANARBITRAGEATLALBEAM TRACKER
BELZONIBEST CUPCAKEBEST SCREENPLAYCAMPING SIETECARA FELCE
CENTRICITYCHARGING FORCECITY OF OSCARSCLEVER HEISTCODE OF ARMS
CRISPY COOLCYBERSTEELDAI VERNONDEFROSTEDDON'T SAY IT
ENOUGHISENOUGHEPIC HORSEPOWEREPIC SANGUINEFAIRE PLAISIRFINAL STATEMENT
FORTY ONE CARROTSFRANCISCOGALATINAGLACIERGOGOPLEX
GRAND OPRYHIGH HARD ONEHIGH STATUSHOLD MY HALOIRISH LAW
JOHNNY WYOMINGJUST BUY ITKAMASSAKAUFFMANKILMALOO
LAWSON'S LEGACYLINUSLOST CHORDLOVE KNICKS HARTLUX AETERNA
MENAMIDWAY GOLDMO MISERYMO OCTANEMO WAY
MOM'S CHEESECAKEMOMBAYLAMOYCULLENMUFFIN MUSICNATIONAL ECLIPSE
NEON NIGHTSONE CENTONTHESTAGEPATRICIOPATTY CAKES
REACH FOR GLORYREADY FOR PEACERIVELLISALTY VIKINGSHERIFF BART
STACKIN SATSSTAR OF THE UNIONSTREET PAINTERSWEETEN THE POTTATERPIE
TIME FOR MONEYTIZIANNATORCELLOTURF ROCKETUNCLE WITH MONEY
VICKI ROSEVOA BROADWAYWHICH ONEWILEY OPERATORWITHOUT CAUTION

 


Get more in-depth analysis for all races and enjoy many other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

Tags:

Comments

No comments yet. Why don’t you start the discussion?

Talkback