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Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Delta Downs, November 12, 2026

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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets (every race where one of our AI algorithms agrees with the expert consensus); Insider adds Algo 2 and the sharper Best Bets list, only the races where Algo 2 agrees with the experts; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) at Delta Downs — in-the-money rate

How often the pick finished first, second or third — not how often it won. 143 graded races at Delta Downs, 2026-10-09 to 2026-11-07.

0%19%39%58%78%Our top pick: 62.2% from 143 racesOur top pick62.2%Morning-line favourite: 58.0% from 143 racesMorning-line favourite58.0%

In-the-money rate, same races for both. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick62.2%143
Morning-line favourite58.0%143
 
Race 1  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $34,000
◆ Strong spot — an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3True Fire (5/2)
Place:7Swiftly Engaged (7/2)
Show:5Excusemelady's (9/2)
Other contenders:8Anna K (6/1), 6Orion Penny (10/1), 4Endurant (8/1)
Rest of field:9Shelliehasmoney (12/1), 1Strike Power Queen (12/1), 10Leslie's Lucky (20/1), 2Golden Penelope (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 375846
🎯 Longshots: 38756419210
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #5, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $37,000
◆ Strong spot — an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:5Fulla Wicked Sugar (2/1)
Place:7Brisa Veloz (5/2)
Show:3Kaydences Calamity (5/1)
Other contenders:4Sassi Idol (9/2), 1Papas Lady (8/1)
Rest of field:6Parisi (12/1), 2Kingston Lady (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 573416
🎯 Longshots: 5176342
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,000
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Gem Sauce (2/1)
Place:3Ocean's Appeal (9/5)
Show:2Brown's Harmony (9/2)
Other contenders:6Esken For Sarah (9/2), 1Little Miss Jess (12/1)
Rest of field:5Ruler's Princess (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 342651
🎯 Longshots: 346251
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:2Luv To Win (5/2)
Place:4Julia's Warrior (7/2)
Show:3Baron Of The Nile (6/1)
Other contenders:5Whiskey And Easy (5/1), 1Scallywag (4/1), 6Byword (8/1)
Rest of field:7Unfathomed (12/1), 8Team Gormley (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 243516
🎯 Longshots: 24365817
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $25,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Shred It Up (9/2)
Place:8Donegal Now (5/2)
Show:7H Q Wilson (7/2)
Other contenders:6Wildly Wicked (8/1), 10Carry The Flag (6/1), 3Cinco Blake (12/1)
Rest of field:9Zong's Creed (10/1), 2Sergeant Slew (15/1), 1El Avion (20/1), 5Thunder Kiss (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 8746103
🎯 Longshots: 64387910215
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #8, #7, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $22,000
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Go Get Trae (2/1)
Place:4C F Spunie Style (3/1)
Show:6Majestic Palace (9/2)
Other contenders:5Steel Argument (4/1), 3Wholelottadeal (8/1)
Rest of field:2Analitico (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 146532
🎯 Longshots: 143652
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  7 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $29,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:8Time To Party (5/2)
Place:2Underhill's Tab (7/2)
Show:7Ambridge (5/1)
Other contenders:5Caught Off Guard (4/1), 4Wedding Gift (6/1), 6Freddie By A Nose (12/1)
Rest of field:3Mr. Faversham (8/1), 1Hey Boss (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 827546
🎯 Longshots: 86237514
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #2, #7, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $10,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Dragon Navy (7/2)
Place:10Spicy Mustard (3/1)
Show:3Run The Street (9/2)
Other contenders:8Flora Bound (8/1), 9She's Wild Again (8/1), 6Gabbys Wings (5/1), 7Global Dawn (10/1)
Rest of field:5Sua Sponte (20/1), 12Louie Vee (8/1), 11Midnight Cigarette (20/1), 2Storm Surge (20/1), 4La Picosita (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1103869
🎯 Longshots: 110869731254112
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #10, #3, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) at Delta Downs — win rate

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 138 graded races at Delta Downs, 2026-10-09 to 2026-11-07.

0%10%21%31%42%Our top pick: 33.3% from 138 racesOur top pick33.3%Morning-line favourite: 29.7% from 138 racesMorning-line favourite29.7%

The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick33.3%138
Morning-line favourite29.7%138
 
Race 1  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $34,000
Win:3True Fire (5/2) 30% · fair 5-2
Place:5Excusemelady's (9/2) 15% · fair 11-2
Show:8Anna K (6/1) 14% · fair 6-1
Other contenders:7Swiftly Engaged (7/2) 10% · fair 19-2 underlay -63%, 6Orion Penny (10/1) 8% · fair 23-2, 4Endurant (8/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -31%
Rest of field:9Shelliehasmoney (12/1) 5% · fair 17-1 underlay -30%, 1Strike Power Queen (12/1) 4% · fair 23-1 underlay -48%, 10Leslie's Lucky (20/1) 3% · fair 71-2 underlay -44%, 2Golden Penelope (20/1) 2% · fair 93-2 underlay -57%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

True Fire — 30.3% win probability, morning line 2.5/1True Fire30.3% ◀Excusemelady'S — 15.2% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Excusemelady'S15.2%Anna K — 14.4% win probability, morning line 6/1Anna K14.4%Swiftly Engaged — 9.7% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Swiftly Engaged9.7%Orion Penny — 8.0% win probability, morning line 10/1Orion Penny8.0%Endurant — 8.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Endurant8.0%Shelliehasmoney — 5.5% win probability, morning line 12/1Shelliehasmoney5.5%Strike Power Queen — 4.1% win probability, morning line 12/1Strike Power Queen4.1%Leslie'S Lucky — 2.7% win probability, morning line 20/1Leslie'S Lucky2.7%Golden Penelope — 2.1% win probability, morning line 20/1Golden Penelope2.1%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
True Fire30.3%2.5/1
Excusemelady'S15.2%4.5/1
Anna K14.4%6/1
Swiftly Engaged9.7%3.5/1
Orion Penny8.0%10/1
Endurant8.0%8/1
Shelliehasmoney5.5%12/1
Strike Power Queen4.1%12/1
Leslie'S Lucky2.7%20/1
Golden Penelope2.1%20/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherTrue Fire: model 30.3% vs market 22.3% (+8.0 points)True Fire+8.0Excusemelady'S: model 15.2% vs market 14.2% (+1.0 points)Excusemelady'S+1.0Anna K: model 14.4% vs market 11.1% (+3.3 points)Anna K+3.3Swiftly Engaged: model 9.7% vs market 17.3% (-7.6 points)Swiftly Engaged-7.6Orion Penny: model 8.0% vs market 7.1% (+0.9 points)Orion Penny+0.9Endurant: model 8.0% vs market 8.7% (-0.7 points)Endurant-0.7Shelliehasmoney: model 5.5% vs market 6.0% (-0.5 points)Shelliehasmoney-0.5Strike Power Queen: model 4.1% vs market 6.0% (-1.9 points)Strike Power Queen-1.9Leslie'S Lucky: model 2.7% vs market 3.7% (-1.0 points)Leslie'S Lucky-1.0Golden Penelope: model 2.1% vs market 3.7% (-1.6 points)Golden Penelope-1.6

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
True Fire30.3%22.3%+8.0
Excusemelady'S15.2%14.2%+1.0
Anna K14.4%11.1%+3.3
Swiftly Engaged9.7%17.3%-7.6
Orion Penny8.0%7.1%+0.9
Endurant8.0%8.7%-0.7
Shelliehasmoney5.5%6.0%-0.5
Strike Power Queen4.1%6.0%-1.9
Leslie'S Lucky2.7%3.7%-1.0
Golden Penelope2.1%3.7%-1.6
🌧️ Off-track: 357846
🎯 Longshots: 38756419210
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #8, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $37,000
Win:5Fulla Wicked Sugar (2/1) 32% · fair 2-1
Place:7Brisa Veloz (5/2) 21% · fair 4-1 underlay -35%
Show:3Kaydences Calamity (5/1) 16% · fair 5-1
Other contenders:4Sassi Idol (9/2) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -27%, 1Papas Lady (8/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -25%
Rest of field:2Kingston Lady (10/1) 4% · fair 43-2 underlay -53%, 6Parisi (12/1) 4% · fair 51-2 underlay -53%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Fulla Wicked Sugar — 32.3% win probability, morning line 2/1Fulla Wicked Sugar32.3% ◀Brisa Veloz — 20.7% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Brisa Veloz20.7%Kaydences Calamity — 16.3% win probability, morning line 5/1Kaydences Calamity16.3%Sassi Idol — 14.0% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Sassi Idol14.0%Papas Lady — 8.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Papas Lady8.6%Kingston Lady — 4.5% win probability, morning line 10/1Kingston Lady4.5%Parisi — 3.8% win probability, morning line 12/1Parisi3.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Fulla Wicked Sugar32.3%2/1
Brisa Veloz20.7%2.5/1
Kaydences Calamity16.3%5/1
Sassi Idol14.0%4.5/1
Papas Lady8.6%8/1
Kingston Lady4.5%10/1
Parisi3.8%12/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherFulla Wicked Sugar: model 32.3% vs market 26.7% (+5.5 points)Fulla Wicked Sugar+5.5Brisa Veloz: model 20.7% vs market 22.9% (-2.3 points)Brisa Veloz-2.3Kaydences Calamity: model 16.3% vs market 13.4% (+2.9 points)Kaydences Calamity+2.9Sassi Idol: model 14.0% vs market 14.6% (-0.6 points)Sassi Idol-0.6Papas Lady: model 8.6% vs market 8.9% (-0.4 points)Papas Lady-0.4Kingston Lady: model 4.5% vs market 7.3% (-2.8 points)Kingston Lady-2.8Parisi: model 3.8% vs market 6.2% (-2.4 points)Parisi-2.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Fulla Wicked Sugar32.3%26.7%+5.5
Brisa Veloz20.7%22.9%-2.3
Kaydences Calamity16.3%13.4%+2.9
Sassi Idol14.0%14.6%-0.6
Papas Lady8.6%8.9%-0.4
Kingston Lady4.5%7.3%-2.8
Parisi3.8%6.2%-2.4
🌧️ Off-track: 573412
🎯 Longshots: 5176342
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,000
Win:4Gem Sauce (2/1) 41% · fair 3-2 overlay +38%
Place:3Ocean's Appeal (9/5) 38% · fair 3-2
Show:6Esken For Sarah (9/2) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -59%
Other contenders:2Brown's Harmony (9/2) 7% · fair 13-1 underlay -66%, 5Ruler's Princess (8/1) 3% · fair 28-1 underlay -71%
Rest of field:1Little Miss Jess (12/1) 3% · fair 37-1 underlay -68%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Gem Sauce — 40.9% win probability, morning line 2/1Gem Sauce40.9% ◀Ocean'S Appeal — 37.6% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Ocean'S Appeal37.6%Esken For Sarah — 8.4% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Esken For Sarah8.4%Brown'S Harmony — 7.0% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Brown'S Harmony7.0%Ruler'S Princess — 3.4% win probability, morning line 8/1Ruler'S Princess3.4%Little Miss Jess — 2.6% win probability, morning line 12/1Little Miss Jess2.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Gem Sauce40.9%2/1
Ocean'S Appeal37.6%1.8/1
Esken For Sarah8.4%4.5/1
Brown'S Harmony7.0%4.5/1
Ruler'S Princess3.4%8/1
Little Miss Jess2.6%12/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherGem Sauce: model 40.9% vs market 26.8% (+14.1 points)Gem Sauce+14.1Ocean'S Appeal: model 37.6% vs market 28.8% (+8.8 points)Ocean'S Appeal+8.8Esken For Sarah: model 8.4% vs market 14.6% (-6.2 points)Esken For Sarah-6.2Brown'S Harmony: model 7.0% vs market 14.6% (-7.6 points)Brown'S Harmony-7.6Ruler'S Princess: model 3.4% vs market 8.9% (-5.5 points)Ruler'S Princess-5.5Little Miss Jess: model 2.6% vs market 6.2% (-3.6 points)Little Miss Jess-3.6

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Gem Sauce40.9%26.8%+14.1
Ocean'S Appeal37.6%28.8%+8.8
Esken For Sarah8.4%14.6%-6.2
Brown'S Harmony7.0%14.6%-7.6
Ruler'S Princess3.4%8.9%-5.5
Little Miss Jess2.6%6.2%-3.6
🌧️ Off-track: 436251
🎯 Longshots: 346251
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #6, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,000
Win:2Luv To Win (5/2) 24% · fair 3-1
Place:4Julia's Warrior (7/2) 23% · fair 7-2
Show:3Baron Of The Nile (6/1) 16% · fair 5-1
Other contenders:5Whiskey And Easy (5/1) 16% · fair 5-1, 1Scallywag (4/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -66%, 6Byword (8/1) 7% · fair 25-2 underlay -35%
Rest of field:7Unfathomed (12/1) 4% · fair 26-1 underlay -54%, 8Team Gormley (15/1) 2% · fair 81-2 underlay -63%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Luv To Win — 23.6% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Luv To Win23.6% ◀Julia'S Warrior — 22.8% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Julia'S Warrior22.8%Baron Of The Nile — 16.2% win probability, morning line 6/1Baron Of The Nile16.2%Whiskey And Easy — 16.1% win probability, morning line 5/1Whiskey And Easy16.1%Scallywag — 7.7% win probability, morning line 4/1Scallywag7.7%Byword — 7.5% win probability, morning line 8/1Byword7.5%Unfathomed — 3.7% win probability, morning line 12/1Unfathomed3.7%Team Gormley — 2.4% win probability, morning line 15/1Team Gormley2.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Luv To Win23.6%2.5/1
Julia'S Warrior22.8%3.5/1
Baron Of The Nile16.2%6/1
Whiskey And Easy16.1%5/1
Scallywag7.7%4/1
Byword7.5%8/1
Unfathomed3.7%12/1
Team Gormley2.4%15/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherLuv To Win: model 23.6% vs market 22.5% (+1.0 points)Luv To Win+1.0Julia'S Warrior: model 22.8% vs market 17.5% (+5.3 points)Julia'S Warrior+5.3Baron Of The Nile: model 16.2% vs market 11.3% (+4.9 points)Baron Of The Nile+4.9Whiskey And Easy: model 16.1% vs market 13.1% (+2.9 points)Whiskey And Easy+2.9Scallywag: model 7.7% vs market 15.8% (-8.0 points)Scallywag-8.0Byword: model 7.5% vs market 8.8% (-1.3 points)Byword-1.3Unfathomed: model 3.7% vs market 6.1% (-2.4 points)Unfathomed-2.4Team Gormley: model 2.4% vs market 4.9% (-2.5 points)Team Gormley-2.5

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Luv To Win23.6%22.5%+1.0
Julia'S Warrior22.8%17.5%+5.3
Baron Of The Nile16.2%11.3%+4.9
Whiskey And Easy16.1%13.1%+2.9
Scallywag7.7%15.8%-8.0
Byword7.5%8.8%-1.3
Unfathomed3.7%6.1%-2.4
Team Gormley2.4%4.9%-2.5
🌧️ Off-track: 245316
🎯 Longshots: 24365817
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $25,000
Win:4Shred It Up (9/2) 25% · fair 3-1 overlay +49%
Place:7H Q Wilson (7/2) 20% · fair 4-1
Show:8Donegal Now (5/2) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -54%
Other contenders:6Wildly Wicked (8/1) 13% · fair 13-2, 3Cinco Blake (12/1) 9% · fair 19-2, 10Carry The Flag (6/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -48%
Rest of field:9Zong's Creed (10/1) 6% · fair 17-1 underlay -42%, 2Sergeant Slew (15/1) 2% · fair 42-1 underlay -64%, 1El Avion (20/1) 1% · fair 213-2 underlay -81%, 5Thunder Kiss (20/1) 0% · fair 247-1 underlay -92%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Shred It Up — 24.8% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Shred It Up24.8% ◀H Q Wilson — 20.2% win probability, morning line 3.5/1H Q Wilson20.2%Donegal Now — 15.4% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Donegal Now15.4%Wildly Wicked — 13.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Wildly Wicked13.0%Cinco Blake — 9.4% win probability, morning line 12/1Cinco Blake9.4%Carry The Flag — 7.9% win probability, morning line 6/1Carry The Flag7.9%Zong'S Creed — 5.5% win probability, morning line 10/1Zong'S Creed5.5%Sergeant Slew — 2.3% win probability, morning line 15/1Sergeant Slew2.3%El Avion — 0.9% win probability, morning line 20/1El Avion0.9%Thunder Kiss — 0.4% win probability, morning line 20/1Thunder Kiss0.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Shred It Up24.8%4.5/1
H Q Wilson20.2%3.5/1
Donegal Now15.4%2.5/1
Wildly Wicked13.0%8/1
Cinco Blake9.4%12/1
Carry The Flag7.9%6/1
Zong'S Creed5.5%10/1
Sergeant Slew2.3%15/1
El Avion0.9%20/1
Thunder Kiss0.4%20/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherShred It Up: model 24.8% vs market 14.3% (+10.5 points)Shred It Up+10.5H Q Wilson: model 20.2% vs market 17.5% (+2.6 points)H Q Wilson+2.6Donegal Now: model 15.4% vs market 22.5% (-7.1 points)Donegal Now-7.1Wildly Wicked: model 13.0% vs market 8.8% (+4.3 points)Wildly Wicked+4.3Cinco Blake: model 9.4% vs market 6.1% (+3.4 points)Cinco Blake+3.4Carry The Flag: model 7.9% vs market 11.3% (-3.3 points)Carry The Flag-3.3Zong'S Creed: model 5.5% vs market 7.2% (-1.6 points)Zong'S Creed-1.6Sergeant Slew: model 2.3% vs market 4.9% (-2.6 points)Sergeant Slew-2.6El Avion: model 0.9% vs market 3.8% (-2.8 points)El Avion-2.8Thunder Kiss: model 0.4% vs market 3.8% (-3.3 points)Thunder Kiss-3.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Shred It Up24.8%14.3%+10.5
H Q Wilson20.2%17.5%+2.6
Donegal Now15.4%22.5%-7.1
Wildly Wicked13.0%8.8%+4.3
Cinco Blake9.4%6.1%+3.4
Carry The Flag7.9%11.3%-3.3
Zong'S Creed5.5%7.2%-1.6
Sergeant Slew2.3%4.9%-2.6
El Avion0.9%3.8%-2.8
Thunder Kiss0.4%3.8%-3.3
🌧️ Off-track: 4786103
🎯 Longshots: 64387910215
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #7, #8, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $22,000
Win:1Go Get Trae (2/1) 26% · fair 3-1 underlay -29%
Place:4C F Spunie Style (3/1) 23% · fair 7-2
Show:6Majestic Palace (9/2) 21% · fair 4-1
Other contenders:5Steel Argument (4/1) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -49%, 3Wholelottadeal (8/1) 10% · fair 17-2
Rest of field:2Analitico (6/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -42%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Go Get Trae — 26.1% win probability, morning line 2/1Go Get Trae26.1% ◀C F Spunie Style — 22.7% win probability, morning line 3/1C F Spunie Style22.7%Majestic Palace — 20.6% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Majestic Palace20.6%Steel Argument — 11.4% win probability, morning line 4/1Steel Argument11.4%Wholelottadeal — 10.4% win probability, morning line 8/1Wholelottadeal10.4%Analitico — 8.8% win probability, morning line 6/1Analitico8.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Go Get Trae26.1%2/1
C F Spunie Style22.7%3/1
Majestic Palace20.6%4.5/1
Steel Argument11.4%4/1
Wholelottadeal10.4%8/1
Analitico8.8%6/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherGo Get Trae: model 26.1% vs market 27.3% (-1.2 points)Go Get Trae-1.2C F Spunie Style: model 22.7% vs market 20.5% (+2.2 points)C F Spunie Style+2.2Majestic Palace: model 20.6% vs market 14.9% (+5.7 points)Majestic Palace+5.7Steel Argument: model 11.4% vs market 16.4% (-5.0 points)Steel Argument-5.0Wholelottadeal: model 10.4% vs market 9.1% (+1.3 points)Wholelottadeal+1.3Analitico: model 8.8% vs market 11.7% (-2.9 points)Analitico-2.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Go Get Trae26.1%27.3%-1.2
C F Spunie Style22.7%20.5%+2.2
Majestic Palace20.6%14.9%+5.7
Steel Argument11.4%16.4%-5.0
Wholelottadeal10.4%9.1%+1.3
Analitico8.8%11.7%-2.9
🌧️ Off-track: 146523
🎯 Longshots: 143652
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  7 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $29,000
Win:8Time To Party (5/2) 31% · fair 2-1
Place:2Underhill's Tab (7/2) 20% · fair 4-1
Show:7Ambridge (5/1) 14% · fair 13-2
Other contenders:5Caught Off Guard (4/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -55%, 4Wedding Gift (6/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -42%, 3Mr. Faversham (8/1) 7% · fair 14-1 underlay -44%
Rest of field:6Freddie By A Nose (12/1) 6% · fair 29-2, 1Hey Boss (15/1) 3% · fair 67-2 underlay -55%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Time To Party — 31.4% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Time To Party31.4% ◀Underhill'S Tab — 19.9% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Underhill'S Tab19.9%Ambridge — 13.8% win probability, morning line 5/1Ambridge13.8%Caught Off Guard — 10.1% win probability, morning line 4/1Caught Off Guard10.1%Wedding Gift — 8.8% win probability, morning line 6/1Wedding Gift8.8%Mr. Faversham — 6.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Mr. Faversham6.6%Freddie By A Nose — 6.5% win probability, morning line 12/1Freddie By A Nose6.5%Hey Boss — 2.9% win probability, morning line 15/1Hey Boss2.9%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Time To Party31.4%2.5/1
Underhill'S Tab19.9%3.5/1
Ambridge13.8%5/1
Caught Off Guard10.1%4/1
Wedding Gift8.8%6/1
Mr. Faversham6.6%8/1
Freddie By A Nose6.5%12/1
Hey Boss2.9%15/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherTime To Party: model 31.4% vs market 22.5% (+8.9 points)Time To Party+8.9Underhill'S Tab: model 19.9% vs market 17.5% (+2.4 points)Underhill'S Tab+2.4Ambridge: model 13.8% vs market 13.1% (+0.6 points)Ambridge+0.6Caught Off Guard: model 10.1% vs market 15.8% (-5.7 points)Caught Off Guard-5.7Wedding Gift: model 8.8% vs market 11.3% (-2.5 points)Wedding Gift-2.5Mr. Faversham: model 6.6% vs market 8.8% (-2.2 points)Mr. Faversham-2.2Freddie By A Nose: model 6.5% vs market 6.1% (+0.4 points)Freddie By A Nose+0.4Hey Boss: model 2.9% vs market 4.9% (-2.0 points)Hey Boss-2.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Time To Party31.4%22.5%+8.9
Underhill'S Tab19.9%17.5%+2.4
Ambridge13.8%13.1%+0.6
Caught Off Guard10.1%15.8%-5.7
Wedding Gift8.8%11.3%-2.5
Mr. Faversham6.6%8.8%-2.2
Freddie By A Nose6.5%6.1%+0.4
Hey Boss2.9%4.9%-2.0
🌧️ Off-track: 827543
🎯 Longshots: 86237514
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #2, #7, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $10,000
Win:1Dragon Navy (7/2) 34% · fair 2-1 overlay +83%
Place:10Spicy Mustard (3/1) 26% · fair 3-1
Show:3Run The Street (9/2) 9% · fair 10-1 underlay -55%
Other contenders:8Flora Bound (8/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -27%, 7Global Dawn (10/1) 6% · fair 17-1 underlay -41%, 9She's Wild Again (8/1) 6% · fair 17-1 underlay -53%, 6Gabbys Wings (5/1) 5% · fair 18-1 underlay -72%
Rest of field:5Sua Sponte (20/1) 2% · fair 87-2 underlay -54%, 2Storm Surge (20/1) 1% · fair 157-2 underlay -75%, 12Louie Vee (8/1) 1% · fair 89-1 underlay -91%, 11Midnight Cigarette (20/1) 1% · fair 197-2 underlay -80%, 4La Picosita (20/1) 1% · fair 303-2 underlay -87%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Dragon Navy — 34.3% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Dragon Navy34.3% ◀Spicy Mustard — 25.6% win probability, morning line 3/1Spicy Mustard25.6%Run The Street — 9.1% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Run The Street9.1%Flora Bound — 8.3% win probability, morning line 8/1Flora Bound8.3%Global Dawn — 5.6% win probability, morning line 10/1Global Dawn5.6%She'S Wild Again — 5.5% win probability, morning line 8/1She'S Wild Again5.5%Gabbys Wings — 5.3% win probability, morning line 5/1Gabbys Wings5.3%Sua Sponte — 2.2% win probability, morning line 20/1Sua Sponte2.2%Storm Surge — 1.3% win probability, morning line 20/1Storm Surge1.3%Louie Vee — 1.1% win probability, morning line 8/1Louie Vee1.1%Midnight Cigarette — 1.0% win probability, morning line 20/1Midnight Cigarette1.0%La Picosita — 0.7% win probability, morning line 20/1La Picosita0.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Dragon Navy34.3%3.5/1
Spicy Mustard25.6%3/1
Run The Street9.1%4.5/1
Flora Bound8.3%8/1
Global Dawn5.6%10/1
She'S Wild Again5.5%8/1
Gabbys Wings5.3%5/1
Sua Sponte2.2%20/1
Storm Surge1.3%20/1
Louie Vee1.1%8/1
Midnight Cigarette1.0%20/1
La Picosita0.7%20/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherDragon Navy: model 34.3% vs market 15.5% (+18.9 points)Dragon Navy+18.9Spicy Mustard: model 25.6% vs market 17.4% (+8.2 points)Spicy Mustard+8.2Run The Street: model 9.1% vs market 12.7% (-3.6 points)Run The Street-3.6Flora Bound: model 8.3% vs market 7.7% (+0.6 points)Flora Bound+0.6Global Dawn: model 5.6% vs market 6.3% (-0.7 points)Global Dawn-0.7She'S Wild Again: model 5.5% vs market 7.7% (-2.2 points)She'S Wild Again-2.2Gabbys Wings: model 5.3% vs market 11.6% (-6.3 points)Gabbys Wings-6.3Sua Sponte: model 2.2% vs market 3.3% (-1.1 points)Sua Sponte-1.1Storm Surge: model 1.3% vs market 3.3% (-2.1 points)Storm Surge-2.1Louie Vee: model 1.1% vs market 7.7% (-6.6 points)Louie Vee-6.6Midnight Cigarette: model 1.0% vs market 3.3% (-2.3 points)Midnight Cigarette-2.3La Picosita: model 0.7% vs market 3.3% (-2.7 points)La Picosita-2.7

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Dragon Navy34.3%15.5%+18.9
Spicy Mustard25.6%17.4%+8.2
Run The Street9.1%12.7%-3.6
Flora Bound8.3%7.7%+0.6
Global Dawn5.6%6.3%-0.7
She'S Wild Again5.5%7.7%-2.2
Gabbys Wings5.3%11.6%-6.3
Sua Sponte2.2%3.3%-1.1
Storm Surge1.3%3.3%-2.1
Louie Vee1.1%7.7%-6.6
Midnight Cigarette1.0%3.3%-2.3
La Picosita0.7%3.3%-2.7
🌧️ Off-track: 1103689
🎯 Longshots: 110869731254112
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #10, #3, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $34,000
Win:3True Fire (5/2)
Place:7Swiftly Engaged (7/2)
Show:5Excusemelady's (9/2)
Other contenders:8Anna K (6/1), 4Endurant (8/1), 6Orion Penny (10/1)
Rest of field:1Strike Power Queen (12/1), 10Leslie's Lucky (20/1), 9Shelliehasmoney (12/1), 2Golden Penelope (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 375846
🎯 Longshots: 38756419210
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #5, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $37,000
Win:5Fulla Wicked Sugar (2/1)
Place:7Brisa Veloz (5/2)
Show:3Kaydences Calamity (5/1)
Other contenders:4Sassi Idol (9/2), 1Papas Lady (8/1)
Rest of field:2Kingston Lady (10/1), 6Parisi (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 573412
🎯 Longshots: 5176342
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,000
Win:3Ocean's Appeal (9/5)
Place:4Gem Sauce (2/1)
Show:2Brown's Harmony (9/2)
Other contenders:6Esken For Sarah (9/2), 1Little Miss Jess (12/1)
Rest of field:5Ruler's Princess (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 342651
🎯 Longshots: 346251
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,000
Win:2Luv To Win (5/2)
Place:4Julia's Warrior (7/2)
Show:3Baron Of The Nile (6/1)
Other contenders:6Byword (8/1), 5Whiskey And Easy (5/1), 1Scallywag (4/1)
Rest of field:8Team Gormley (15/1), 7Unfathomed (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 243516
🎯 Longshots: 24365817
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #3, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $25,000
Win:7H Q Wilson (7/2)
Place:8Donegal Now (5/2)
Show:4Shred It Up (9/2)
Other contenders:6Wildly Wicked (8/1), 10Carry The Flag (6/1), 3Cinco Blake (12/1)
Rest of field:9Zong's Creed (10/1), 2Sergeant Slew (15/1), 5Thunder Kiss (20/1), 1El Avion (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 8741069
🎯 Longshots: 64387910215
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #8, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $22,000
Win:1Go Get Trae (2/1)
Place:4C F Spunie Style (3/1)
Show:6Majestic Palace (9/2)
Other contenders:5Steel Argument (4/1), 3Wholelottadeal (8/1)
Rest of field:2Analitico (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 146523
🎯 Longshots: 143652
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  7 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $29,000
Win:8Time To Party (5/2)
Place:2Underhill's Tab (7/2)
Show:7Ambridge (5/1)
Other contenders:5Caught Off Guard (4/1), 6Freddie By A Nose (12/1), 4Wedding Gift (6/1)
Rest of field:3Mr. Faversham (8/1), 1Hey Boss (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 825743
🎯 Longshots: 86237514
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #2, #7, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $10,000
Win:1Dragon Navy (7/2)
Place:10Spicy Mustard (3/1)
Show:8Flora Bound (8/1)
Other contenders:9She's Wild Again (8/1), 3Run The Street (9/2), 6Gabbys Wings (5/1), 7Global Dawn (10/1)
Rest of field:5Sua Sponte (20/1), 12Louie Vee (8/1), 2Storm Surge (20/1), 11Midnight Cigarette (20/1), 4La Picosita (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1103689
🎯 Longshots: 110869731254112
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #10, #8, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #3 over #7 ($1 straight; box #3-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #7, #5, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #5 over #7 ($1 straight; box #5-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #7, #3, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #3 over #4 ($1 straight; box #3-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #4, #2, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #2 over #4 ($1 straight; box #2-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #4, #3, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #4 over #8 ($1 straight; box #4-#8 for cover)
Trifecta: #7 over #4, #10, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #1 over #4 ($1 straight; box #1-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #4, #6, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #8 over #2 ($1 straight; box #8-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #8 over #2, #6, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #1 over #10 ($1 straight; box #1-#10 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #10, #8, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $34,000
Win:3True Fire (5/2)
Place:7Swiftly Engaged (7/2)
Show:8Anna K (6/1)
Other contenders:6Orion Penny (10/1), 5Excusemelady's (9/2), 4Endurant (8/1)
Rest of field:1Strike Power Queen (12/1), 9Shelliehasmoney (12/1), 10Leslie's Lucky (20/1), 2Golden Penelope (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 375846
🎯 Longshots: 38756419210
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #8, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $37,000
Win:5Fulla Wicked Sugar (2/1)
Place:7Brisa Veloz (5/2)
Show:1Papas Lady (8/1)
Other contenders:3Kaydences Calamity (5/1), 4Sassi Idol (9/2)
Rest of field:6Parisi (12/1), 2Kingston Lady (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 573412
🎯 Longshots: 5176342
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #1, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,000
Win:3Ocean's Appeal (9/5)
Place:4Gem Sauce (2/1)
Show:2Brown's Harmony (9/2)
Other contenders:6Esken For Sarah (9/2), 5Ruler's Princess (8/1)
Rest of field:1Little Miss Jess (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 342651
🎯 Longshots: 346251
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,000
Win:2Luv To Win (5/2)
Place:3Baron Of The Nile (6/1)
Show:4Julia's Warrior (7/2)
Other contenders:6Byword (8/1), 5Whiskey And Easy (5/1), 1Scallywag (4/1)
Rest of field:8Team Gormley (15/1), 7Unfathomed (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 241356
🎯 Longshots: 24365817
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $25,000
Win:8Donegal Now (5/2)
Place:7H Q Wilson (7/2)
Show:4Shred It Up (9/2)
Other contenders:10Carry The Flag (6/1), 6Wildly Wicked (8/1), 9Zong's Creed (10/1)
Rest of field:3Cinco Blake (12/1), 5Thunder Kiss (20/1), 2Sergeant Slew (15/1), 1El Avion (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 8741069
🎯 Longshots: 64387910215
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #7, #4, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $22,000
Win:4C F Spunie Style (3/1)
Place:1Go Get Trae (2/1)
Show:3Wholelottadeal (8/1)
Other contenders:6Majestic Palace (9/2), 5Steel Argument (4/1)
Rest of field:2Analitico (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 146532
🎯 Longshots: 143652
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #3, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  7 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $29,000
Win:8Time To Party (5/2)
Place:2Underhill's Tab (7/2)
Show:5Caught Off Guard (4/1)
Other contenders:7Ambridge (5/1), 6Freddie By A Nose (12/1), 4Wedding Gift (6/1)
Rest of field:3Mr. Faversham (8/1), 1Hey Boss (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 825743
🎯 Longshots: 86237514
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #2, #5, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $10,000
Win:1Dragon Navy (7/2)
Place:10Spicy Mustard (3/1)
Show:3Run The Street (9/2)
Other contenders:8Flora Bound (8/1), 6Gabbys Wings (5/1), 9She's Wild Again (8/1), 7Global Dawn (10/1)
Rest of field:2Storm Surge (20/1), 12Louie Vee (8/1), 5Sua Sponte (20/1), 11Midnight Cigarette (20/1), 4La Picosita (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1103689
🎯 Longshots: 110869731254112
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #10, #3, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $34,000
Win:3True Fire (5/2)
Place:7Swiftly Engaged (7/2)
Show:5Excusemelady's (9/2)
Other contenders:8Anna K (6/1), 6Orion Penny (10/1), 4Endurant (8/1)
Rest of field:1Strike Power Queen (12/1), 9Shelliehasmoney (12/1), 10Leslie's Lucky (20/1), 2Golden Penelope (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 375846
🎯 Longshots: 38756419210
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #5, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $37,000
Win:5Fulla Wicked Sugar (2/1)
Place:7Brisa Veloz (5/2)
Show:3Kaydences Calamity (5/1)
Other contenders:1Papas Lady (8/1), 4Sassi Idol (9/2)
Rest of field:2Kingston Lady (10/1), 6Parisi (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 573412
🎯 Longshots: 5176342
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #3, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,000
Win:3Ocean's Appeal (9/5)
Place:4Gem Sauce (2/1)
Show:2Brown's Harmony (9/2)
Other contenders:6Esken For Sarah (9/2), 1Little Miss Jess (12/1)
Rest of field:5Ruler's Princess (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 342651
🎯 Longshots: 346251
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,000
Win:2Luv To Win (5/2)
Place:4Julia's Warrior (7/2)
Show:3Baron Of The Nile (6/1)
Other contenders:6Byword (8/1), 5Whiskey And Easy (5/1), 1Scallywag (4/1)
Rest of field:7Unfathomed (12/1), 8Team Gormley (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 243156
🎯 Longshots: 24365817
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #3, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $25,000
Win:7H Q Wilson (7/2)
Place:4Shred It Up (9/2)
Show:10Carry The Flag (6/1)
Other contenders:8Donegal Now (5/2), 6Wildly Wicked (8/1), 3Cinco Blake (12/1)
Rest of field:9Zong's Creed (10/1), 2Sergeant Slew (15/1), 5Thunder Kiss (20/1), 1El Avion (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 8741069
🎯 Longshots: 64387910215
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #4, #10, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $22,000
Win:1Go Get Trae (2/1)
Place:4C F Spunie Style (3/1)
Show:6Majestic Palace (9/2)
Other contenders:5Steel Argument (4/1), 3Wholelottadeal (8/1)
Rest of field:2Analitico (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 146523
🎯 Longshots: 143652
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  7 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $29,000
Win:8Time To Party (5/2)
Place:2Underhill's Tab (7/2)
Show:6Freddie By A Nose (12/1)
Other contenders:5Caught Off Guard (4/1), 3Mr. Faversham (8/1), 7Ambridge (5/1)
Rest of field:4Wedding Gift (6/1), 1Hey Boss (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 825743
🎯 Longshots: 86237514
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #2, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $10,000
Win:1Dragon Navy (7/2)
Place:10Spicy Mustard (3/1)
Show:8Flora Bound (8/1)
Other contenders:3Run The Street (9/2), 6Gabbys Wings (5/1), 9She's Wild Again (8/1), 7Global Dawn (10/1)
Rest of field:5Sua Sponte (20/1), 2Storm Surge (20/1), 12Louie Vee (8/1), 11Midnight Cigarette (20/1), 4La Picosita (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1103689
🎯 Longshots: 110869731254112
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #10, #8, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets – Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R1-3R1: #3,#5,#8 (60%) / R2: #5,#7,#3 (69%) / R3: #4,#3 (78%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 33%
Pick 3 R2-4R2: #5,#7,#3 (69%) / R3: #4,#3 (78%) / R4: #2,#4,#3 (63%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 34%
Pick 3 R3-5R3: #4,#3 (78%) / R4: #2,#4,#3 (63%) / R5: #4,#7,#8 (60%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 30%
Pick 3 R6-8R6: #1,#4,#6 (69%) / R7: #8,#2,#7 (65%) / R8: #1,#10,#3 (69%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 31%
Pick 4 R2-5R2: #5,#7,#3 (69%) / R3: #4,#3 (78%) / R4: #2,#4,#3 (63%) / R5: #4,#7,#8 (60%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 21%
Pick 4 R3-6R3: #4,#3 (78%) / R4: #2,#4,#3 (63%) / R5: #4,#7,#8 (60%) / R6: #1,#4,#6 (69%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 21%
Index – Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
AMBRIDGEANALITICOANNA KBARON OF THE NILEBRISA VELOZ
BYWORDC F SPUNIE STYLECARRY THE FLAGCAUGHT OFF GUARDCINCO BLAKE
DRAGON NAVYEL AVIONENDURANTESKEN FOR SARAHEXCUSEMELADY'S
FREDDIE BY A NOSEFULLA WICKED SUGARGABBYS WINGSGEM SAUCEGLOBAL DAWN
GOLDEN PENELOPEH Q WILSONHEY BOSSJULIA'S WARRIORKAYDENCES CALAMITY
LA PICOSITALESLIE'S LUCKYLITTLE MISS JESSLOUIE VEELUV TO WIN
MIDNIGHT CIGARETTEMR. FAVERSHAMOCEAN'S APPEALORION PENNYPAPAS LADY
RULER'S PRINCESSRUN THE STREETSASSI IDOLSCALLYWAGSERGEANT SLEW
SHELLIEHASMONEYSHRED IT UPSPICY MUSTARDSTEEL ARGUMENTSTORM SURGE
SUA SPONTESWIFTLY ENGAGEDTEAM GORMLEYTHUNDER KISSTIME TO PARTY
UNDERHILL'S TABUNFATHOMEDWEDDING GIFTWHISKEY AND EASYWHOLELOTTADEAL
ZONG'S CREED

 


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