Posted inAnalysis Picks

Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Horseshoe Indianapolis, November 9, 2026

No CommentsPosted inAnalysis, Picks

AI Morning Update — overnight changes applied

Our AI picks are computed the night before from the official past performances. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes — the same information the human experts have when they publish — and re-rank any affected race. In maiden races, where late money has the best record, Algo 2's morning pick follows the live betting favourite once the pool is open. Changes from last night's published picks are listed here.

TrackRaceModelNew Top PickWhy
IND2Model Algo 1#1 – Tapit Charm1 scratch(es)
IND2Model Algo 2 (Ensemble)#1 – Tapit Charm1 scratch(es)
IND2Model Algo 3 (Win Prob)#1 – Tapit Charm1 scratch(es)
IND2Model Weight set 2#4 – Lunar Sky1 scratch(es)
IND2Model Weight set 3#1 – Tapit Charm1 scratch(es)

Plays voided by scratches — these published value plays are officially scratched; win bets on them are refunds, so strike them from your card:

  • Trifecta play: IND Race 2 — Sompatra (SCRATCHED)

Where the experts back our strongest pick today

In 5 of today's 9 races, the published handicappers landed on the same horse as Algo 2, our best-performing model. Over the last 90 days (4,446 graded races), the races where they agreed won 37.4% of the time against 29.6% where they did not.

Today's agreement races — IND 2, 4, 6, 7, 9.

Which horse the two agree on is part of Algo 2, included with Insider and above. The race numbers above are free to everyone: if you are playing these races, you now know the experts and our strongest model are pointing the same way.


Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

 

How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets (every race where one of our AI algorithms agrees with the expert consensus); Insider adds Algo 2 and the sharper Best Bets list, only the races where Algo 2 agrees with the experts; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) at Horseshoe Indianapolis — win rate

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 347 graded races at Horseshoe Indianapolis, 2026-08-18 to 2026-11-06.

0%10%20%29%39%Our top pick: 31.4% from 347 racesOur top pick31.4%Morning-line favourite: 28.0% from 347 racesMorning-line favourite28.0%

The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick31.4%347
Morning-line favourite28.0%347
 
Race 1  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Don't Look Back (9/5)
Place:5Seeyouinabit (3/1)
Show:2Country Club (10/1)
Other contenders:4Keen Ice Sight (2/1), 7Dessert First (8/1)
Rest of field:3Sweet Saint (8/1), 6Redheadedstranger (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 154273
🎯 Longshots: 2371546
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #5, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $18,500
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Sompatra (6/5)
Place:1Tapit Charm (8/5)
Show:5Jogger (6/1)
Other contenders:4Lunar Sky (15/1), 3Lil Salvation (15/1)
Rest of field:2Sweet Sahara (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 615432
🎯 Longshots: 614532
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · playable
 
Race 3  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $43,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:7Speight Knight (2/1)
Place:4Vienna Charm (5/2)
Show:3Turbeau Man (4/1)
Other contenders:2Turbo Duck (5/1), 6Gunzo (8/1)
Rest of field:5Mr Sledge Hammer (15/1), 1Polar Drift (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 743265
🎯 Longshots: 7465213
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #4, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:8Rocksie Girl (3/1)
Place:4Conga (3/1)
Show:6Run Kiki Run (7/2)
Other contenders:1Solsia (4/1), 2Dreamlicious (6/1), 7Carmel (6/1)
Rest of field:5First Ladybug (15/1), 3Dama Diamante (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 846127
🎯 Longshots: 48617253
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #4, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $39,440
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:7Zona Rosso (5/2)
Place:10Bourbon D'oro (3/1)
Show:1Thunder Town (8/1)
Other contenders:4Dyna Run (5/1), 9Magnus Crown (6/1), 8Fletcher's Star (8/1), 2Got To Get You (15/1)
Rest of field:6El Gran Ruchacha (12/1), 5Blackmore (25/1), 3Mein Schatz (20/1), 11C V Hades (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 7104198
🎯 Longshots: 1710498621153
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #10, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:11Gimmeethreesteps (5/2)
Place:4Mr. Sensei (5/1)
Show:1Via Del Corso (12/1)
Other contenders:9Banidoso (8/1), 7American Bear (6/1), 10Rigoberto (10/1), 3Zappinit (8/1)
Rest of field:2Seminole Beach (15/1), 6Sierra Power (20/1), 8Mon Ami Fuzzie (15/1), 12Lavender Earl (20/1), 5Stronger Together (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1147913
🎯 Longshots: 111310974286125
🎫 Trifecta play: #11 over #4, #1, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:5Guns Allowed (5/2)
Place:12Shuggy (3/1)
Show:1Nayak (5/1)
Other contenders:4Apollo's Glory (12/1), 11El Ramundo (15/1), 7In The Books (10/1), 6Oh My Good Lord (8/1)
Rest of field:8Running Ready (12/1), 9Pattern Approach (20/1), 3America Wins (20/1), 2Wolf Dakota (25/1), 10Terrysontilt (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 51214116
🎯 Longshots: 512411167892310
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #12, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $38,000
Win:9Rank Randy (3/1)
Place:7Young Angus (9/2)
Show:6Save My Town (8/1)
Other contenders:5Q's Got Class (6/1), 3Einstein's Ghost (12/1), 10Silver Sterling (10/1), 8El Numero Uno (10/1)
Rest of field:4Forever Hope (15/1), 1Crazy Legs Mike (10/1), 11Dade County (6/1), 2Penitent (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 9765103
🎯 Longshots: 6910374851211
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #7, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,500
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:5Grey Eclipse (5/2)
Place:6Q's Topnotch (9/2)
Show:4Rock City Kid (7/2)
Other contenders:1Star Promise (9/2), 3Fools Jester (15/1), 7Pray For Victory (10/1)
Rest of field:2Time To Toast (20/1), 9Boss Justice (10/1), 8Cringe (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 564137
🎯 Longshots: 356417298
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) at Horseshoe Indianapolis — win rate

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 254 graded races at Horseshoe Indianapolis, 2026-09-08 to 2026-11-06.

0%9%17%26%34%Our top pick: 27.6% from 254 racesOur top pick27.6%Morning-line favourite: 25.2% from 254 racesMorning-line favourite25.2%

The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick27.6%254
Morning-line favourite25.2%254
 
Race 1  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000
Win:5Seeyouinabit (3/1) 27% · fair 3-1
Place:1Don't Look Back (9/5) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -63%
Show:7Dessert First (8/1) 17% · fair 5-1 overlay +64%
Other contenders:2Country Club (10/1) 14% · fair 6-1 overlay +65%, 3Sweet Saint (8/1) 12% · fair 15-2
Rest of field:4Keen Ice Sight (2/1) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -76%, 6Redheadedstranger (25/1) 2% · fair 40-1 underlay -37%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Seeyouinabit — 26.6% win probability, morning line 3/1Seeyouinabit26.6% ◀Don'T Look Back — 17.0% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Don'T Look Back17.0%Dessert First — 17.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Dessert First17.0%Country Club — 14.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Country Club14.1%Sweet Saint — 12.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Sweet Saint12.0%Keen Ice Sight — 10.8% win probability, morning line 2/1Keen Ice Sight10.8%Redheadedstranger — 2.5% win probability, morning line 25/1Redheadedstranger2.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Seeyouinabit26.6%3/1
Don'T Look Back17.0%1.8/1
Dessert First17.0%8/1
Country Club14.1%10/1
Sweet Saint12.0%8/1
Keen Ice Sight10.8%2/1
Redheadedstranger2.5%25/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherSeeyouinabit: model 26.6% vs market 19.3% (+7.3 points)Seeyouinabit+7.3Don'T Look Back: model 17.0% vs market 27.6% (-10.6 points)Don'T Look Back-10.6Dessert First: model 17.0% vs market 8.6% (+8.4 points)Dessert First+8.4Country Club: model 14.1% vs market 7.0% (+7.1 points)Country Club+7.1Sweet Saint: model 12.0% vs market 8.6% (+3.4 points)Sweet Saint+3.4Keen Ice Sight: model 10.8% vs market 25.8% (-15.0 points)Keen Ice Sight-15.0Redheadedstranger: model 2.5% vs market 3.0% (-0.5 points)Redheadedstranger-0.5

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Seeyouinabit26.6%19.3%+7.3
Don'T Look Back17.0%27.6%-10.6
Dessert First17.0%8.6%+8.4
Country Club14.1%7.0%+7.1
Sweet Saint12.0%8.6%+3.4
Keen Ice Sight10.8%25.8%-15.0
Redheadedstranger2.5%3.0%-0.5
🌧️ Off-track: 514732
🎯 Longshots: 2371546
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #7, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $18,500
Win:6Sompatra (6/5) 36% · fair 3-2 underlay -31%
Place:1Tapit Charm (8/5) 27% · fair 3-1 underlay -42%
Show:5Jogger (6/1) 16% · fair 5-1
Other contenders:3Lil Salvation (15/1) 9% · fair 19-2 overlay +57%, 4Lunar Sky (15/1) 7% · fair 25-2
Rest of field:2Sweet Sahara (20/1) 4% · fair 24-1
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Sompatra — 36.5% win probability, morning line 1.2/1Sompatra36.5% ◀Tapit Charm — 26.5% win probability, morning line 1.6/1Tapit Charm26.5%Jogger — 16.2% win probability, morning line 6/1Jogger16.2%Lil Salvation — 9.5% win probability, morning line 15/1Lil Salvation9.5%Lunar Sky — 7.3% win probability, morning line 15/1Lunar Sky7.3%Sweet Sahara — 4.0% win probability, morning line 20/1Sweet Sahara4.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Sompatra36.5%1.2/1
Tapit Charm26.5%1.6/1
Jogger16.2%6/1
Lil Salvation9.5%15/1
Lunar Sky7.3%15/1
Sweet Sahara4.0%20/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherSompatra: model 36.5% vs market 39.4% (-2.9 points)Sompatra-2.9Tapit Charm: model 26.5% vs market 33.3% (-6.8 points)Tapit Charm-6.8Jogger: model 16.2% vs market 12.4% (+3.8 points)Jogger+3.8Lil Salvation: model 9.5% vs market 5.4% (+4.1 points)Lil Salvation+4.1Lunar Sky: model 7.3% vs market 5.4% (+1.9 points)Lunar Sky+1.9Sweet Sahara: model 4.0% vs market 4.1% (-0.1 points)Sweet Sahara-0.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Sompatra36.5%39.4%-2.9
Tapit Charm26.5%33.3%-6.8
Jogger16.2%12.4%+3.8
Lil Salvation9.5%5.4%+4.1
Lunar Sky7.3%5.4%+1.9
Sweet Sahara4.0%4.1%-0.1
🌧️ Off-track: 615342
🎯 Longshots: 614532
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · playable
 
Race 3  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $43,000
Win:4Vienna Charm (5/2) 30% · fair 5-2
Place:7Speight Knight (2/1) 25% · fair 3-1 underlay -34%
Show:3Turbeau Man (4/1) 12% · fair 7-1 underlay -43%
Other contenders:2Turbo Duck (5/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -34%, 6Gunzo (8/1) 9% · fair 10-1
Rest of field:1Polar Drift (12/1) 7% · fair 29-2, 5Mr Sledge Hammer (15/1) 6% · fair 33-2
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Vienna Charm — 29.6% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Vienna Charm29.6% ◀Speight Knight — 24.8% win probability, morning line 2/1Speight Knight24.8%Turbeau Man — 12.4% win probability, morning line 4/1Turbeau Man12.4%Turbo Duck — 11.7% win probability, morning line 5/1Turbo Duck11.7%Gunzo — 9.2% win probability, morning line 8/1Gunzo9.2%Polar Drift — 6.5% win probability, morning line 12/1Polar Drift6.5%Mr Sledge Hammer — 5.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Mr Sledge Hammer5.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Vienna Charm29.6%2.5/1
Speight Knight24.8%2/1
Turbeau Man12.4%4/1
Turbo Duck11.7%5/1
Gunzo9.2%8/1
Polar Drift6.5%12/1
Mr Sledge Hammer5.8%15/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherVienna Charm: model 29.6% vs market 23.1% (+6.5 points)Vienna Charm+6.5Speight Knight: model 24.8% vs market 27.0% (-2.2 points)Speight Knight-2.2Turbeau Man: model 12.4% vs market 16.2% (-3.8 points)Turbeau Man-3.8Turbo Duck: model 11.7% vs market 13.5% (-1.8 points)Turbo Duck-1.8Gunzo: model 9.2% vs market 9.0% (+0.2 points)Gunzo+0.2Polar Drift: model 6.5% vs market 6.2% (+0.3 points)Polar Drift+0.3Mr Sledge Hammer: model 5.8% vs market 5.1% (+0.7 points)Mr Sledge Hammer+0.7

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Vienna Charm29.6%23.1%+6.5
Speight Knight24.8%27.0%-2.2
Turbeau Man12.4%16.2%-3.8
Turbo Duck11.7%13.5%-1.8
Gunzo9.2%9.0%+0.2
Polar Drift6.5%6.2%+0.3
Mr Sledge Hammer5.8%5.1%+0.7
🌧️ Off-track: 473261
🎯 Longshots: 7465213
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #7, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520
Win:8Rocksie Girl (3/1) 43% · fair 3-2 overlay +123%
Place:6Run Kiki Run (7/2) 12% · fair 7-1 underlay -50%
Show:4Conga (3/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -59%
Other contenders:1Solsia (4/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -47%, 2Dreamlicious (6/1) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -28%, 7Carmel (6/1) 4% · fair 45-2 underlay -73%
Rest of field:5First Ladybug (15/1) 4% · fair 49-2 underlay -39%, 3Dama Diamante (20/1) 2% · fair 79-2 underlay -49%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Rocksie Girl — 42.6% win probability, morning line 3/1Rocksie Girl42.6% ◀Run Kiki Run — 12.5% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Run Kiki Run12.5%Conga — 11.9% win probability, morning line 3/1Conga11.9%Solsia — 11.7% win probability, morning line 4/1Solsia11.7%Dreamlicious — 10.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Dreamlicious10.7%Carmel — 4.2% win probability, morning line 6/1Carmel4.2%First Ladybug — 3.9% win probability, morning line 15/1First Ladybug3.9%Dama Diamante — 2.5% win probability, morning line 20/1Dama Diamante2.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Rocksie Girl42.6%3/1
Run Kiki Run12.5%3.5/1
Conga11.9%3/1
Solsia11.7%4/1
Dreamlicious10.7%6/1
Carmel4.2%6/1
First Ladybug3.9%15/1
Dama Diamante2.5%20/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherRocksie Girl: model 42.6% vs market 19.0% (+23.6 points)Rocksie Girl+23.6Run Kiki Run: model 12.5% vs market 16.9% (-4.4 points)Run Kiki Run-4.4Conga: model 11.9% vs market 19.0% (-7.0 points)Conga-7.0Solsia: model 11.7% vs market 15.2% (-3.5 points)Solsia-3.5Dreamlicious: model 10.7% vs market 10.8% (-0.1 points)Dreamlicious-0.1Carmel: model 4.2% vs market 10.8% (-6.6 points)Carmel-6.6First Ladybug: model 3.9% vs market 4.7% (-0.8 points)First Ladybug-0.8Dama Diamante: model 2.5% vs market 3.6% (-1.1 points)Dama Diamante-1.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Rocksie Girl42.6%19.0%+23.6
Run Kiki Run12.5%16.9%-4.4
Conga11.9%19.0%-7.0
Solsia11.7%15.2%-3.5
Dreamlicious10.7%10.8%-0.1
Carmel4.2%10.8%-6.6
First Ladybug3.9%4.7%-0.8
Dama Diamante2.5%3.6%-1.1
🌧️ Off-track: 846127
🎯 Longshots: 48617253
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #6, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $39,440
Win:9Magnus Crown (6/1) 16% · fair 5-1
Place:7Zona Rosso (5/2) 16% · fair 5-1 underlay -51%
Show:1Thunder Town (8/1) 15% · fair 11-2 overlay +43%
Other contenders:10Bourbon D'oro (3/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -60%, 8Fletcher's Star (8/1) 10% · fair 17-2, 4Dyna Run (5/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -43%, 6El Gran Ruchacha (12/1) 7% · fair 25-2
Rest of field:2Got To Get You (15/1) 6% · fair 17-1, 3Mein Schatz (20/1) 3% · fair 63-2 underlay -36%, 5Blackmore (25/1) 2% · fair 81-2 underlay -38%, 11C V Hades (20/1) 1% · fair 149-2 underlay -73%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Magnus Crown — 16.3% win probability, morning line 6/1Magnus Crown16.3% ◀Zona Rosso — 16.3% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Zona Rosso16.3%Thunder Town — 15.2% win probability, morning line 8/1Thunder Town15.2%Bourbon D'Oro — 11.8% win probability, morning line 3/1Bourbon D'Oro11.8%Fletcher'S Star — 10.5% win probability, morning line 8/1Fletcher'S Star10.5%Dyna Run — 10.2% win probability, morning line 5/1Dyna Run10.2%El Gran Ruchacha — 7.3% win probability, morning line 12/1El Gran Ruchacha7.3%Got To Get You — 5.6% win probability, morning line 15/1Got To Get You5.6%Mein Schatz — 3.1% win probability, morning line 20/1Mein Schatz3.1%Blackmore — 2.4% win probability, morning line 25/1Blackmore2.4%C V Hades — 1.3% win probability, morning line 20/1C V Hades1.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Magnus Crown16.3%6/1
Zona Rosso16.3%2.5/1
Thunder Town15.2%8/1
Bourbon D'Oro11.8%3/1
Fletcher'S Star10.5%8/1
Dyna Run10.2%5/1
El Gran Ruchacha7.3%12/1
Got To Get You5.6%15/1
Mein Schatz3.1%20/1
Blackmore2.4%25/1
C V Hades1.3%20/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherMagnus Crown: model 16.3% vs market 10.7% (+5.6 points)Magnus Crown+5.6Zona Rosso: model 16.3% vs market 21.3% (-5.0 points)Zona Rosso-5.0Thunder Town: model 15.2% vs market 8.3% (+6.9 points)Thunder Town+6.9Bourbon D'Oro: model 11.8% vs market 18.6% (-6.8 points)Bourbon D'Oro-6.8Fletcher'S Star: model 10.5% vs market 8.3% (+2.2 points)Fletcher'S Star+2.2Dyna Run: model 10.2% vs market 12.4% (-2.2 points)Dyna Run-2.2El Gran Ruchacha: model 7.3% vs market 5.7% (+1.5 points)El Gran Ruchacha+1.5Got To Get You: model 5.6% vs market 4.7% (+1.0 points)Got To Get You+1.0Mein Schatz: model 3.1% vs market 3.6% (-0.5 points)Mein Schatz-0.5Blackmore: model 2.4% vs market 2.9% (-0.5 points)Blackmore-0.5C V Hades: model 1.3% vs market 3.6% (-2.2 points)C V Hades-2.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Magnus Crown16.3%10.7%+5.6
Zona Rosso16.3%21.3%-5.0
Thunder Town15.2%8.3%+6.9
Bourbon D'Oro11.8%18.6%-6.8
Fletcher'S Star10.5%8.3%+2.2
Dyna Run10.2%12.4%-2.2
El Gran Ruchacha7.3%5.7%+1.5
Got To Get You5.6%4.7%+1.0
Mein Schatz3.1%3.6%-0.5
Blackmore2.4%2.9%-0.5
C V Hades1.3%3.6%-2.2
🌧️ Off-track: 7109148
🎯 Longshots: 1710498621153
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #7, #1, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,000
Win:11Gimmeethreesteps (5/2) 23% · fair 7-2 underlay -25%
Place:4Mr. Sensei (5/1) 13% · fair 13-2
Show:9Banidoso (8/1) 13% · fair 7-1
Other contenders:1Via Del Corso (12/1) 12% · fair 15-2 overlay +58%, 7American Bear (6/1) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -28%, 10Rigoberto (10/1) 7% · fair 13-1, 3Zappinit (8/1) 7% · fair 14-1 underlay -43%
Rest of field:2Seminole Beach (15/1) 5% · fair 19-1, 6Sierra Power (20/1) 4% · fair 49-2, 8Mon Ami Fuzzie (15/1) 3% · fair 29-1 underlay -49%, 12Lavender Earl (20/1) 2% · fair 60-1 underlay -67%, 5Stronger Together (20/1) 1% · fair 94-1 underlay -79%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Gimmeethreesteps — 23.0% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Gimmeethreesteps23.0% ◀Mr. Sensei — 13.2% win probability, morning line 5/1Mr. Sensei13.2%Banidoso — 12.8% win probability, morning line 8/1Banidoso12.8%Via Del Corso — 11.6% win probability, morning line 12/1Via Del Corso11.6%American Bear — 10.7% win probability, morning line 6/1American Bear10.7%Rigoberto — 7.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Rigoberto7.1%Zappinit — 6.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Zappinit6.6%Seminole Beach — 5.0% win probability, morning line 15/1Seminole Beach5.0%Sierra Power — 3.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Sierra Power3.9%Mon Ami Fuzzie — 3.3% win probability, morning line 15/1Mon Ami Fuzzie3.3%Lavender Earl — 1.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Lavender Earl1.6%Stronger Together — 1.1% win probability, morning line 20/1Stronger Together1.1%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Gimmeethreesteps23.0%2.5/1
Mr. Sensei13.2%5/1
Banidoso12.8%8/1
Via Del Corso11.6%12/1
American Bear10.7%6/1
Rigoberto7.1%10/1
Zappinit6.6%8/1
Seminole Beach5.0%15/1
Sierra Power3.9%20/1
Mon Ami Fuzzie3.3%15/1
Lavender Earl1.6%20/1
Stronger Together1.1%20/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherGimmeethreesteps: model 23.0% vs market 22.8% (+0.2 points)Gimmeethreesteps+0.2Mr. Sensei: model 13.2% vs market 13.3% (-0.1 points)Mr. Sensei-0.1Banidoso: model 12.8% vs market 8.9% (+4.0 points)Banidoso+4.0Via Del Corso: model 11.6% vs market 6.1% (+5.5 points)Via Del Corso+5.5American Bear: model 10.7% vs market 11.4% (-0.7 points)American Bear-0.7Rigoberto: model 7.1% vs market 7.3% (-0.2 points)Rigoberto-0.2Zappinit: model 6.6% vs market 8.9% (-2.2 points)Zappinit-2.2Seminole Beach: model 5.0% vs market 5.0% (+0.0 points)Seminole Beach+0.0Sierra Power: model 3.9% vs market 3.8% (+0.1 points)Sierra Power+0.1Mon Ami Fuzzie: model 3.3% vs market 5.0% (-1.7 points)Mon Ami Fuzzie-1.7Lavender Earl: model 1.6% vs market 3.8% (-2.2 points)Lavender Earl-2.2Stronger Together: model 1.1% vs market 3.8% (-2.7 points)Stronger Together-2.7

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Gimmeethreesteps23.0%22.8%+0.2
Mr. Sensei13.2%13.3%-0.1
Banidoso12.8%8.9%+4.0
Via Del Corso11.6%6.1%+5.5
American Bear10.7%11.4%-0.7
Rigoberto7.1%7.3%-0.2
Zappinit6.6%8.9%-2.2
Seminole Beach5.0%5.0%+0.0
Sierra Power3.9%3.8%+0.1
Mon Ami Fuzzie3.3%5.0%-1.7
Lavender Earl1.6%3.8%-2.2
Stronger Together1.1%3.8%-2.7
🌧️ Off-track: 1147913
🎯 Longshots: 111310974286125
🎫 Trifecta play: #11 over #4, #9, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520
Win:5Guns Allowed (5/2) 31% · fair 2-1
Place:12Shuggy (3/1) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -34%
Show:1Nayak (5/1) 13% · fair 13-2
Other contenders:4Apollo's Glory (12/1) 13% · fair 7-1 overlay +77%, 11El Ramundo (15/1) 7% · fair 25-2, 7In The Books (10/1) 4% · fair 43-2 underlay -54%, 8Running Ready (12/1) 3% · fair 57-2 underlay -58%
Rest of field:6Oh My Good Lord (8/1) 2% · fair 85-2 underlay -81%, 9Pattern Approach (20/1) 2% · fair 44-1 underlay -55%, 2Wolf Dakota (25/1) 2% · fair 47-1 underlay -47%, 3America Wins (20/1) 1% · fair 137-2 underlay -71%, 10Terrysontilt (25/1) 1% · fair 189-2 underlay -74%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Guns Allowed — 31.3% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Guns Allowed31.3% ◀Shuggy — 18.1% win probability, morning line 3/1Shuggy18.1%Nayak — 13.5% win probability, morning line 5/1Nayak13.5%Apollo'S Glory — 12.9% win probability, morning line 12/1Apollo'S Glory12.9%El Ramundo — 7.3% win probability, morning line 15/1El Ramundo7.3%In The Books — 4.4% win probability, morning line 10/1In The Books4.4%Running Ready — 3.4% win probability, morning line 12/1Running Ready3.4%Oh My Good Lord — 2.3% win probability, morning line 8/1Oh My Good Lord2.3%Pattern Approach — 2.2% win probability, morning line 20/1Pattern Approach2.2%Wolf Dakota — 2.1% win probability, morning line 25/1Wolf Dakota2.1%America Wins — 1.4% win probability, morning line 20/1America Wins1.4%Terrysontilt — 1.0% win probability, morning line 25/1Terrysontilt1.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Guns Allowed31.3%2.5/1
Shuggy18.1%3/1
Nayak13.5%5/1
Apollo'S Glory12.9%12/1
El Ramundo7.3%15/1
In The Books4.4%10/1
Running Ready3.4%12/1
Oh My Good Lord2.3%8/1
Pattern Approach2.2%20/1
Wolf Dakota2.1%25/1
America Wins1.4%20/1
Terrysontilt1.0%25/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherGuns Allowed: model 31.3% vs market 22.1% (+9.2 points)Guns Allowed+9.2Shuggy: model 18.1% vs market 19.3% (-1.2 points)Shuggy-1.2Nayak: model 13.5% vs market 12.9% (+0.6 points)Nayak+0.6Apollo'S Glory: model 12.9% vs market 5.9% (+6.9 points)Apollo'S Glory+6.9El Ramundo: model 7.3% vs market 4.8% (+2.5 points)El Ramundo+2.5In The Books: model 4.4% vs market 7.0% (-2.6 points)In The Books-2.6Running Ready: model 3.4% vs market 5.9% (-2.6 points)Running Ready-2.6Oh My Good Lord: model 2.3% vs market 8.6% (-6.3 points)Oh My Good Lord-6.3Pattern Approach: model 2.2% vs market 3.7% (-1.5 points)Pattern Approach-1.5Wolf Dakota: model 2.1% vs market 3.0% (-0.9 points)Wolf Dakota-0.9America Wins: model 1.4% vs market 3.7% (-2.2 points)America Wins-2.2Terrysontilt: model 1.0% vs market 3.0% (-1.9 points)Terrysontilt-1.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Guns Allowed31.3%22.1%+9.2
Shuggy18.1%19.3%-1.2
Nayak13.5%12.9%+0.6
Apollo'S Glory12.9%5.9%+6.9
El Ramundo7.3%4.8%+2.5
In The Books4.4%7.0%-2.6
Running Ready3.4%5.9%-2.6
Oh My Good Lord2.3%8.6%-6.3
Pattern Approach2.2%3.7%-1.5
Wolf Dakota2.1%3.0%-0.9
America Wins1.4%3.7%-2.2
Terrysontilt1.0%3.0%-1.9
🌧️ Off-track: 5121467
🎯 Longshots: 512411167892310
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #12, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $38,000
Win:9Rank Randy (3/1) 23% · fair 7-2
Place:7Young Angus (9/2) 16% · fair 11-2
Show:6Save My Town (8/1) 15% · fair 6-1 overlay +38%
Other contenders:3Einstein's Ghost (12/1) 9% · fair 10-1, 10Silver Sterling (10/1) 9% · fair 21-2, 5Q's Got Class (6/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -48%, 8El Numero Uno (10/1) 7% · fair 27-2
Rest of field:4Forever Hope (15/1) 5% · fair 35-2, 2Penitent (15/1) 3% · fair 36-1 underlay -58%, 11Dade County (6/1) 3% · fair 36-1 underlay -83%, 1Crazy Legs Mike (10/1) 3% · fair 36-1 underlay -72%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Rank Randy — 23.2% win probability, morning line 3/1Rank Randy23.2% ◀Young Angus — 15.5% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Young Angus15.5%Save My Town — 14.7% win probability, morning line 8/1Save My Town14.7%Einstein'S Ghost — 9.3% win probability, morning line 12/1Einstein'S Ghost9.3%Silver Sterling — 8.8% win probability, morning line 10/1Silver Sterling8.8%Q'S Got Class — 8.0% win probability, morning line 6/1Q'S Got Class8.0%El Numero Uno — 7.0% win probability, morning line 10/1El Numero Uno7.0%Forever Hope — 5.5% win probability, morning line 15/1Forever Hope5.5%Penitent — 2.7% win probability, morning line 15/1Penitent2.7%Dade County — 2.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Dade County2.7%Crazy Legs Mike — 2.7% win probability, morning line 10/1Crazy Legs Mike2.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Rank Randy23.2%3/1
Young Angus15.5%4.5/1
Save My Town14.7%8/1
Einstein'S Ghost9.3%12/1
Silver Sterling8.8%10/1
Q'S Got Class8.0%6/1
El Numero Uno7.0%10/1
Forever Hope5.5%15/1
Penitent2.7%15/1
Dade County2.7%6/1
Crazy Legs Mike2.7%10/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherRank Randy: model 23.2% vs market 19.2% (+4.0 points)Rank Randy+4.0Young Angus: model 15.5% vs market 14.0% (+1.6 points)Young Angus+1.6Save My Town: model 14.7% vs market 8.5% (+6.2 points)Save My Town+6.2Einstein'S Ghost: model 9.3% vs market 5.9% (+3.4 points)Einstein'S Ghost+3.4Silver Sterling: model 8.8% vs market 7.0% (+1.8 points)Silver Sterling+1.8Q'S Got Class: model 8.0% vs market 11.0% (-3.0 points)Q'S Got Class-3.0El Numero Uno: model 7.0% vs market 7.0% (+0.0 points)El Numero Uno+0.0Forever Hope: model 5.5% vs market 4.8% (+0.7 points)Forever Hope+0.7Penitent: model 2.7% vs market 4.8% (-2.1 points)Penitent-2.1Dade County: model 2.7% vs market 11.0% (-8.3 points)Dade County-8.3Crazy Legs Mike: model 2.7% vs market 7.0% (-4.3 points)Crazy Legs Mike-4.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Rank Randy23.2%19.2%+4.0
Young Angus15.5%14.0%+1.6
Save My Town14.7%8.5%+6.2
Einstein'S Ghost9.3%5.9%+3.4
Silver Sterling8.8%7.0%+1.8
Q'S Got Class8.0%11.0%-3.0
El Numero Uno7.0%7.0%+0.0
Forever Hope5.5%4.8%+0.7
Penitent2.7%4.8%-2.1
Dade County2.7%11.0%-8.3
Crazy Legs Mike2.7%7.0%-4.3
🌧️ Off-track: 97651011
🎯 Longshots: 6910374851211
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #7, #6, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,500
Win:6Q's Topnotch (9/2) 24% · fair 3-1 overlay +39%
Place:5Grey Eclipse (5/2) 23% · fair 7-2 underlay -26%
Show:4Rock City Kid (7/2) 19% · fair 9-2
Other contenders:1Star Promise (9/2) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -47%, 3Fools Jester (15/1) 10% · fair 17-2 overlay +72%, 7Pray For Victory (10/1) 5% · fair 18-1 underlay -44%
Rest of field:2Time To Toast (20/1) 5% · fair 39-2, 9Boss Justice (10/1) 3% · fair 34-1 underlay -71%, 8Cringe (25/1) 1% · fair 165-2 underlay -70%
Race 9 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Q'S Topnotch — 23.6% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Q'S Topnotch23.6% ◀Grey Eclipse — 22.7% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Grey Eclipse22.7%Rock City Kid — 18.6% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Rock City Kid18.6%Star Promise — 10.6% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Star Promise10.6%Fools Jester — 10.3% win probability, morning line 15/1Fools Jester10.3%Pray For Victory — 5.3% win probability, morning line 10/1Pray For Victory5.3%Time To Toast — 4.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Time To Toast4.9%Boss Justice — 2.9% win probability, morning line 10/1Boss Justice2.9%Cringe — 1.2% win probability, morning line 25/1Cringe1.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Q'S Topnotch23.6%4.5/1
Grey Eclipse22.7%2.5/1
Rock City Kid18.6%3.5/1
Star Promise10.6%4.5/1
Fools Jester10.3%15/1
Pray For Victory5.3%10/1
Time To Toast4.9%20/1
Boss Justice2.9%10/1
Cringe1.2%25/1
Race 9 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherQ'S Topnotch: model 23.6% vs market 15.1% (+8.4 points)Q'S Topnotch+8.4Grey Eclipse: model 22.7% vs market 23.8% (-1.0 points)Grey Eclipse-1.0Rock City Kid: model 18.6% vs market 18.5% (+0.1 points)Rock City Kid+0.1Star Promise: model 10.6% vs market 15.1% (-4.6 points)Star Promise-4.6Fools Jester: model 10.3% vs market 5.2% (+5.1 points)Fools Jester+5.1Pray For Victory: model 5.3% vs market 7.6% (-2.2 points)Pray For Victory-2.2Time To Toast: model 4.9% vs market 4.0% (+0.9 points)Time To Toast+0.9Boss Justice: model 2.9% vs market 7.6% (-4.7 points)Boss Justice-4.7Cringe: model 1.2% vs market 3.2% (-2.0 points)Cringe-2.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Q'S Topnotch23.6%15.1%+8.4
Grey Eclipse22.7%23.8%-1.0
Rock City Kid18.6%18.5%+0.1
Star Promise10.6%15.1%-4.6
Fools Jester10.3%5.2%+5.1
Pray For Victory5.3%7.6%-2.2
Time To Toast4.9%4.0%+0.9
Boss Justice2.9%7.6%-4.7
Cringe1.2%3.2%-2.0
🌧️ Off-track: 564173
🎯 Longshots: 356417298
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
 
Race 1  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000
Win:1Don't Look Back (9/5)
Place:5Seeyouinabit (3/1)
Show:4Keen Ice Sight (2/1)
Other contenders:3Sweet Saint (8/1), 2Country Club (10/1)
Rest of field:7Dessert First (8/1), 6Redheadedstranger (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 145372
🎯 Longshots: 2371546
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #5, #4, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $18,500
Win:6Sompatra (6/5)
Place:1Tapit Charm (8/5)
Show:4Lunar Sky (15/1)
Other contenders:5Jogger (6/1), 2Sweet Sahara (20/1)
Rest of field:3Lil Salvation (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 615432
🎯 Longshots: 614532
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · playable
 
Race 3  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $43,000
Win:4Vienna Charm (5/2)
Place:7Speight Knight (2/1)
Show:2Turbo Duck (5/1)
Other contenders:3Turbeau Man (4/1), 6Gunzo (8/1)
Rest of field:1Polar Drift (12/1), 5Mr Sledge Hammer (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 743261
🎯 Longshots: 7465213
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #7, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520
Win:8Rocksie Girl (3/1)
Place:4Conga (3/1)
Show:6Run Kiki Run (7/2)
Other contenders:2Dreamlicious (6/1), 1Solsia (4/1), 7Carmel (6/1)
Rest of field:5First Ladybug (15/1), 3Dama Diamante (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 846127
🎯 Longshots: 48617253
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #4, #6, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $39,440
Win:7Zona Rosso (5/2)
Place:1Thunder Town (8/1)
Show:10Bourbon D'oro (3/1)
Other contenders:9Magnus Crown (6/1), 4Dyna Run (5/1), 8Fletcher's Star (8/1), 6El Gran Ruchacha (12/1)
Rest of field:5Blackmore (25/1), 2Got To Get You (15/1), 11C V Hades (20/1), 3Mein Schatz (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 7109148
🎯 Longshots: 1710498621153
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #10, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,000
Win:11Gimmeethreesteps (5/2)
Place:4Mr. Sensei (5/1)
Show:9Banidoso (8/1)
Other contenders:1Via Del Corso (12/1), 10Rigoberto (10/1), 7American Bear (6/1), 3Zappinit (8/1)
Rest of field:2Seminole Beach (15/1), 8Mon Ami Fuzzie (15/1), 6Sierra Power (20/1), 12Lavender Earl (20/1), 5Stronger Together (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 11479310
🎯 Longshots: 111310974286125
🎫 Trifecta play: #11 over #4, #9, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520
Win:5Guns Allowed (5/2)
Place:12Shuggy (3/1)
Show:1Nayak (5/1)
Other contenders:4Apollo's Glory (12/1), 11El Ramundo (15/1), 7In The Books (10/1), 6Oh My Good Lord (8/1)
Rest of field:9Pattern Approach (20/1), 8Running Ready (12/1), 2Wolf Dakota (25/1), 3America Wins (20/1), 10Terrysontilt (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5121467
🎯 Longshots: 512411167892310
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #12, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $38,000
Win:9Rank Randy (3/1)
Place:8El Numero Uno (10/1)
Show:7Young Angus (9/2)
Other contenders:6Save My Town (8/1), 3Einstein's Ghost (12/1), 10Silver Sterling (10/1), 5Q's Got Class (6/1)
Rest of field:4Forever Hope (15/1), 11Dade County (6/1), 1Crazy Legs Mike (10/1), 2Penitent (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 9756811
🎯 Longshots: 6910374851211
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #8, #7, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,500
Win:6Q's Topnotch (9/2)
Place:5Grey Eclipse (5/2)
Show:1Star Promise (9/2)
Other contenders:4Rock City Kid (7/2), 3Fools Jester (15/1), 2Time To Toast (20/1)
Rest of field:7Pray For Victory (10/1), 9Boss Justice (10/1), 8Cringe (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 546173
🎯 Longshots: 356417298
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #1 over #5 ($1 straight; box #1-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #1, #2, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #6 over #1 ($1 straight; box #6-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #1, #5, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · playable
Race 3AI Exacta: #7 over #4 ($1 straight; box #7-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #7, #2, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #4 over #8 ($1 straight; box #4-#8 for cover)
Trifecta: #8 over #2, #4, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #7 over #10 ($1 straight; box #7-#10 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #7, #10, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #11 over #4 ($1 straight; box #11-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #11 over #4, #9, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #5 over #12 ($1 straight; box #5-#12 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #12, #1, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #9 over #7 ($1 straight; box #9-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #9 over #7, #6, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 9AI Exacta: #5 over #6 ($1 straight; box #5-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #1, #5, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Morning-line reliability: +0.37 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)    Price-band calibration: P(win), edge and stake are reduced for horses at 12-to-1 and longer (×0.96 from 12-to-1 up to 20-to-1, ×0.60 at 20-to-1 and longer) because the model has been measured to overstate win chances at those prices; the list of horses is unchanged, and a 20-to-1 horse may now show a negative edge and no stake
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $
bankroll
61Via Del Corso12/1—10.8%+40.0%0.83%$0.83
93Fools Jester15/1—8.5%+35.0%0.58%$0.58
74Apollo'S Glory12/1—10.1%+31.2%0.65%$0.65
711El Ramundo15/1—7.8%+25.3%0.42%$0.42
12Country Club10/1—11.1%+21.5%0.54%$0.54
52Got To Get You15/1—7.2%+14.9%0.25%$0.25
TOTAL across 6 plays:3.3%$3.27
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000
Win:5Seeyouinabit (3/1)
Place:2Country Club (10/1)
Show:1Don't Look Back (9/5)
Other contenders:3Sweet Saint (8/1), 4Keen Ice Sight (2/1)
Rest of field:7Dessert First (8/1), 6Redheadedstranger (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 514237
🎯 Longshots: 2371546
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #1, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $18,500
Win:6Sompatra (6/5)
Place:4Lunar Sky (15/1)
Show:1Tapit Charm (8/5)
Other contenders:5Jogger (6/1), 3Lil Salvation (15/1)
Rest of field:2Sweet Sahara (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 615432
🎯 Longshots: 614532
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · playable
 
Race 3  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $43,000
Win:5Mr Sledge Hammer (15/1)
Place:7Speight Knight (2/1)
Show:2Turbo Duck (5/1)
Other contenders:4Vienna Charm (5/2), 3Turbeau Man (4/1)
Rest of field:6Gunzo (8/1), 1Polar Drift (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 742356
🎯 Longshots: 7465213
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520
Win:8Rocksie Girl (3/1)
Place:4Conga (3/1)
Show:6Run Kiki Run (7/2)
Other contenders:1Solsia (4/1), 7Carmel (6/1), 2Dreamlicious (6/1)
Rest of field:5First Ladybug (15/1), 3Dama Diamante (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 846172
🎯 Longshots: 48617253
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #4, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $39,440
Win:1Thunder Town (8/1)
Place:7Zona Rosso (5/2)
Show:10Bourbon D'oro (3/1)
Other contenders:4Dyna Run (5/1), 9Magnus Crown (6/1), 8Fletcher's Star (8/1), 6El Gran Ruchacha (12/1)
Rest of field:2Got To Get You (15/1), 3Mein Schatz (20/1), 5Blackmore (25/1), 11C V Hades (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 7101498
🎯 Longshots: 1710498621153
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #10, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,000
Win:11Gimmeethreesteps (5/2)
Place:10Rigoberto (10/1)
Show:7American Bear (6/1)
Other contenders:4Mr. Sensei (5/1), 3Zappinit (8/1), 1Via Del Corso (12/1), 9Banidoso (8/1)
Rest of field:2Seminole Beach (15/1), 6Sierra Power (20/1), 8Mon Ami Fuzzie (15/1), 12Lavender Earl (20/1), 5Stronger Together (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 11471039
🎯 Longshots: 111310974286125
🎫 Trifecta play: #11 over #10, #7, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520
Win:4Apollo's Glory (12/1)
Place:12Shuggy (3/1)
Show:5Guns Allowed (5/2)
Other contenders:1Nayak (5/1), 11El Ramundo (15/1), 6Oh My Good Lord (8/1), 9Pattern Approach (20/1)
Rest of field:8Running Ready (12/1), 3America Wins (20/1), 2Wolf Dakota (25/1), 7In The Books (10/1), 10Terrysontilt (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5121467
🎯 Longshots: 512411167892310
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #12, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $38,000
Win:9Rank Randy (3/1)
Place:8El Numero Uno (10/1)
Show:6Save My Town (8/1)
Other contenders:5Q's Got Class (6/1), 7Young Angus (9/2), 10Silver Sterling (10/1), 11Dade County (6/1)
Rest of field:3Einstein's Ghost (12/1), 1Crazy Legs Mike (10/1), 4Forever Hope (15/1), 2Penitent (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 9756118
🎯 Longshots: 6910374851211
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #8, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,500
Win:5Grey Eclipse (5/2)
Place:1Star Promise (9/2)
Show:6Q's Topnotch (9/2)
Other contenders:3Fools Jester (15/1), 2Time To Toast (20/1), 4Rock City Kid (7/2)
Rest of field:7Pray For Victory (10/1), 9Boss Justice (10/1), 8Cringe (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 516437
🎯 Longshots: 356417298
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #6, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000
Win:5Seeyouinabit (3/1)
Place:1Don't Look Back (9/5)
Show:2Country Club (10/1)
Other contenders:4Keen Ice Sight (2/1), 3Sweet Saint (8/1)
Rest of field:7Dessert First (8/1), 6Redheadedstranger (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 145237
🎯 Longshots: 2371546
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $18,500
Win:6Sompatra (6/5)
Place:1Tapit Charm (8/5)
Show:5Jogger (6/1)
Other contenders:4Lunar Sky (15/1), 3Lil Salvation (15/1)
Rest of field:2Sweet Sahara (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 615432
🎯 Longshots: 614532
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · playable
 
Race 3  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $43,000
Win:4Vienna Charm (5/2)
Place:7Speight Knight (2/1)
Show:2Turbo Duck (5/1)
Other contenders:3Turbeau Man (4/1), 6Gunzo (8/1)
Rest of field:5Mr Sledge Hammer (15/1), 1Polar Drift (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 473261
🎯 Longshots: 7465213
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #7, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520
Win:8Rocksie Girl (3/1)
Place:2Dreamlicious (6/1)
Show:4Conga (3/1)
Other contenders:1Solsia (4/1), 6Run Kiki Run (7/2), 7Carmel (6/1)
Rest of field:3Dama Diamante (20/1), 5First Ladybug (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 846127
🎯 Longshots: 48617253
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #2, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $39,440
Win:1Thunder Town (8/1)
Place:7Zona Rosso (5/2)
Show:10Bourbon D'oro (3/1)
Other contenders:9Magnus Crown (6/1), 4Dyna Run (5/1), 8Fletcher's Star (8/1), 6El Gran Ruchacha (12/1)
Rest of field:5Blackmore (25/1), 2Got To Get You (15/1), 3Mein Schatz (20/1), 11C V Hades (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 7109148
🎯 Longshots: 1710498621153
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #10, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,000
Win:11Gimmeethreesteps (5/2)
Place:4Mr. Sensei (5/1)
Show:9Banidoso (8/1)
Other contenders:7American Bear (6/1), 10Rigoberto (10/1), 1Via Del Corso (12/1), 3Zappinit (8/1)
Rest of field:2Seminole Beach (15/1), 8Mon Ami Fuzzie (15/1), 6Sierra Power (20/1), 5Stronger Together (20/1), 12Lavender Earl (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 11479310
🎯 Longshots: 111310974286125
🎫 Trifecta play: #11 over #4, #9, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520
Win:5Guns Allowed (5/2)
Place:12Shuggy (3/1)
Show:1Nayak (5/1)
Other contenders:4Apollo's Glory (12/1), 11El Ramundo (15/1), 6Oh My Good Lord (8/1), 7In The Books (10/1)
Rest of field:8Running Ready (12/1), 2Wolf Dakota (25/1), 9Pattern Approach (20/1), 3America Wins (20/1), 10Terrysontilt (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5121467
🎯 Longshots: 512411167892310
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #12, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $38,000
Win:9Rank Randy (3/1)
Place:7Young Angus (9/2)
Show:6Save My Town (8/1)
Other contenders:3Einstein's Ghost (12/1), 8El Numero Uno (10/1), 10Silver Sterling (10/1), 5Q's Got Class (6/1)
Rest of field:4Forever Hope (15/1), 11Dade County (6/1), 1Crazy Legs Mike (10/1), 2Penitent (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 9765118
🎯 Longshots: 6910374851211
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #7, #6, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,500
Win:6Q's Topnotch (9/2)
Place:1Star Promise (9/2)
Show:5Grey Eclipse (5/2)
Other contenders:4Rock City Kid (7/2), 3Fools Jester (15/1), 2Time To Toast (20/1)
Rest of field:7Pray For Victory (10/1), 9Boss Justice (10/1), 8Cringe (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 546173
🎯 Longshots: 356417298
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R1-3R1: #5,#1,#7 (61%) / R2: #6,#1 (63%) / R3: #4,#7,#3 (67%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 25%
Pick 3 R2-4R2: #6,#1 (63%) / R3: #4,#7,#3 (67%) / R4: #8,#6,#4 (67%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 28%
Pick 3 R3-5R3: #4,#7,#3 (67%) / R4: #8,#6,#4 (67%) / R5: #9,#7,#1 (48%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 21%
Pick 3 R7-9R7: #5,#12,#1 (63%) / R8: #9,#7,#6 (53%) / R9: #6,#5,#4 (65%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 22%
Pick 4 R1-4R1: #5,#1,#7 (61%) / R2: #6,#1 (63%) / R3: #4,#7,#3 (67%) / R4: #8,#6,#4 (67%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 17%
Pick 4 R2-5R2: #6,#1 (63%) / R3: #4,#7,#3 (67%) / R4: #8,#6,#4 (67%) / R5: #9,#7,#1 (48%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 13%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
AMERICA WINSAMERICAN BEARAP COCOS LIGHTAPOLLO'S GLORYBANIDOSO
BOSS JUSTICEBOURBON D'OROC V HADESCARMELCONGA
CRAZY LEGS MIKECRINGEDADE COUNTYDAMA DIAMANTEDESSERT FIRST
DREAMLICIOUSDYNA RUNEINSTEIN'S GHOSTEL GRAN RUCHACHAEL NUMERO UNO
FIRST LADYBUGFLETCHER'S STARFOOLS JESTERFOREVER HOPEGIMMEETHREESTEPS
GOLDEN STATE GGOT TO GET YOUGREY ECLIPSEGUNS ALLOWEDGUNZO
IRISS ROSEJOGGERKEEN ICE SIGHTKISS MY RUNLAVENDER EARL
LUNAR SKYMAGNUS CROWNMARIA ESTHERMEIN SCHATZMON AMI FUZZIE
MR. SENSEINAYAKOCEAN MASTEROH MY GOOD LORDONE SWEET HERO
PENITENTPOLAR DRIFTPRAY FOR VICTORYQ'S GOT CLASSQ'S TOPNOTCH
REDHEADEDSTRANGERRIGOBERTOROCK CITY KIDROCKSIE GIRLRR BLANCOS CARTEL
RUNNING READYSAVE MY TOWNSEEYOUINABITSEMINOLE BEACHSHARING GOSSIP
SIERRA POWERSILVER STERLINGSOLSIASOMPATRASPEIGHT KNIGHT
STRONGER TOGETHERSWEET SAHARASWEET SAINTTAPIT CHARMTERRYSONTILT
THUNDER TOWNTIME TO TOASTTURBEAU MANTURBO DUCKVIA DEL CORSO
WHEELZ UP SMWOLF DAKOTAWR SMOKIN TRAINYOUNG ANGUSZAPPINIT

 


Get more in-depth analysis for all races and enjoy many other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

Tags:

Comments

No comments yet. Why don’t you start the discussion?

Talkback