Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Santa Anita Park, October 16, 2026


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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) at Santa Anita Park — win rate vs the experts

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 89 graded races at Santa Anita Park, 2026-09-25 to 2026-10-12.

0%10%20%31%41%Our top pick: 32.6% from 89 racesOur top pick32.6%Expert consensus pick: 23.6% from 89 racesExpert consensus pick23.6%

The consensus is the weighted top pick of 25+ published handicappers. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick32.6%89
Expert consensus pick23.6%89
 
Race 1  6 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $27,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:5Miles Finch (1/1)
Place:1Letmein (5/1)
Show:7Hurricane Way (6/1)
Other contenders:8Luck Lucky (9/2), 3Danzing Wild Cat (6/1), 4Sun Chaser (15/1)
Rest of field:6Maddie Tee (20/1), 2Need Mo Diamonds (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 517834
🎯 Longshots: 54871326
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #7, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $24,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3Ima Track Star (3/5)
Place:4Singlemore (4/1)
Show:2Southern Melodee (4/1)
Other contenders:1Chase N Ryan (6/1), 5Meeking (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 34215
🎯 Longshots: 35421
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $27,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Scene By Me (5/2)
Place:1Grey's Boy (9/5)
Show:6Mo Holland Drive (5/1)
Other contenders:3Victoria's Rocket (8/1), 7Andtheomofthebrave (9/2), 5Sterling Sea (12/1)
Rest of field:8Agrowest (20/1), 2Bad Uncle Ernie (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 146735
🎯 Longshots: 14352876
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #6, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $67,000
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Dottie Hinson (8/5)
Place:3Kool Mariah (2/1)
Show:6Miss Practical (9/2)
Other contenders:5Dorie Miller (5/1), 2Baby Needs Shoes (8/1)
Rest of field:4Cotta Ride (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 136524
🎯 Longshots: 134265
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
 
Race 5  1 1/8 Miles · Turf · Starter Allowance · Purse $29,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Dairago (8/5)
Place:4Caisson (5/2)
Show:1Geometry (7/2)
Other contenders:9Fomo Joe (9/2), 7Jimmy Blue Jeans (6/1), 5Cathal (12/1)
Rest of field:8Grandisimo (10/1), 10Oobubbakakayo (15/1), 2Spearfish (30/1), 3Rhythem On Stage (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 641978
🎯 Longshots: 64510892137
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #1, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $16,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:5Mystic Moses (8/5)
Place:8Hungover (7/2)
Show:6He's Got Fire (4/1)
Other contenders:2Fine Irish Morning (3/1), 7Tiger To You (20/1), 4Foregoneconclusion (15/1)
Rest of field:1Naudesnoodle (30/1), 9Zenjin (30/1), 3Epic Hero (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 586247
🎯 Longshots: 528761493
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #8, #6, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 1/4 Miles · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $67,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3Roselee May (4/1)
Place:1Midnight Horizon (7/2)
Show:2Pentle Bay (6/1)
Other contenders:6Cailin Dana (8/1), 5Daring Pursuit (9/2), 4Wink And A Grin (6/1)
Rest of field:8Dea Matrona (5/1), 7Lanilla (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 312564
🎯 Longshots: 63174528
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $21,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:2Harkette (5/1)
Place:10Jade's Most Wanted (5/2)
Show:7Thirsty Caitlin (8/1)
Other contenders:8Chachacha Ching (10/1), 9Lucky Tammy (5/1), 3Shemakesmemad (15/1), 1Zayda At The Spa (20/1)
Rest of field:4Fiery Tiger (10/1), 6Quick Up (30/1), 11Beastro (30/1), 5Az Daisy (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 2107893
🎯 Longshots: 7108932164115
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #10, #7, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $65,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:9Zakiel (8/5)
Place:3Columnist (7/2)
Show:2Royal Rumor (6/1)
Other contenders:6Strike It Solo (8/1), 4Chaotic Neutral (8/1), 5Soul Force (8/1)
Rest of field:8Gray Thunder (10/1), 1Blindly Loyal (20/1), 7Unconventional (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 932645
🎯 Longshots: 934685217
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #3, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) at Santa Anita Park — win rate vs the experts

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 88 graded races at Santa Anita Park, 2026-09-25 to 2026-10-12.

0%10%19%29%38%Our top pick: 30.7% from 88 racesOur top pick30.7%Expert consensus pick: 22.7% from 88 racesExpert consensus pick22.7%

The consensus is the weighted top pick of 25+ published handicappers. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick30.7%88
Expert consensus pick22.7%88
 
Race 1  6 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $27,000
Win:5Miles Finch (1/1) 37% · fair 3-2 underlay -41%
Place:1Letmein (5/1) 16% · fair 11-2
Show:7Hurricane Way (6/1) 15% · fair 11-2
Other contenders:8Luck Lucky (9/2) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -40%, 3Danzing Wild Cat (6/1) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -26%, 4Sun Chaser (15/1) 6% · fair 15-1
Rest of field:6Maddie Tee (20/1) 1% · fair 133-2 underlay -70%, 2Need Mo Diamonds (30/1) 1% · fair 74-1 underlay -60%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Miles Finch — 37.1% win probability, morning line 1/1Miles Finch37.1% ◀Letmein — 15.8% win probability, morning line 5/1Letmein15.8%Hurricane Way — 15.2% win probability, morning line 6/1Hurricane Way15.2%Luck Lucky — 11.8% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Luck Lucky11.8%Danzing Wild Cat — 11.0% win probability, morning line 6/1Danzing Wild Cat11.0%Sun Chaser — 6.2% win probability, morning line 15/1Sun Chaser6.2%Maddie Tee — 1.5% win probability, morning line 20/1Maddie Tee1.5%Need Mo Diamonds — 1.3% win probability, morning line 30/1Need Mo Diamonds1.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Miles Finch37.1%1/1
Letmein15.8%5/1
Hurricane Way15.2%6/1
Luck Lucky11.8%4.5/1
Danzing Wild Cat11.0%6/1
Sun Chaser6.2%15/1
Maddie Tee1.5%20/1
Need Mo Diamonds1.3%30/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherMiles Finch: model 37.1% vs market 39.2% (-2.1 points)Miles Finch-2.1Letmein: model 15.8% vs market 13.1% (+2.8 points)Letmein+2.8Hurricane Way: model 15.2% vs market 11.2% (+4.0 points)Hurricane Way+4.0Luck Lucky: model 11.8% vs market 14.2% (-2.4 points)Luck Lucky-2.4Danzing Wild Cat: model 11.0% vs market 11.2% (-0.2 points)Danzing Wild Cat-0.2Sun Chaser: model 6.2% vs market 4.9% (+1.4 points)Sun Chaser+1.4Maddie Tee: model 1.5% vs market 3.7% (-2.2 points)Maddie Tee-2.2Need Mo Diamonds: model 1.3% vs market 2.5% (-1.2 points)Need Mo Diamonds-1.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Miles Finch37.1%39.2%-2.1
Letmein15.8%13.1%+2.8
Hurricane Way15.2%11.2%+4.0
Luck Lucky11.8%14.2%-2.4
Danzing Wild Cat11.0%11.2%-0.2
Sun Chaser6.2%4.9%+1.4
Maddie Tee1.5%3.7%-2.2
Need Mo Diamonds1.3%2.5%-1.2
🌧️ Off-track: 518734
🎯 Longshots: 54871326
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #7, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $24,000
Win:3Ima Track Star (3/5) 52% · fair 5-5 underlay -34%
Place:4Singlemore (4/1) 18% · fair 9-2
Show:2Southern Melodee (4/1) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -39%
Other contenders:1Chase N Ryan (6/1) 12% · fair 7-1, 5Meeking (12/1) 4% · fair 43-2 underlay -44%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Ima Track Star — 52.3% win probability, morning line 0.6/1Ima Track Star52.3% ◀Singlemore — 17.5% win probability, morning line 4/1Singlemore17.5%Southern Melodee — 13.2% win probability, morning line 4/1Southern Melodee13.2%Chase N Ryan — 12.5% win probability, morning line 6/1Chase N Ryan12.5%Meeking — 4.4% win probability, morning line 12/1Meeking4.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Ima Track Star52.3%0.6/1
Singlemore17.5%4/1
Southern Melodee13.2%4/1
Chase N Ryan12.5%6/1
Meeking4.4%12/1
🌧️ Off-track: 34215
🎯 Longshots: 35421
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $27,000
Win:4Scene By Me (5/2) 30% · fair 5-2
Place:1Grey's Boy (9/5) 28% · fair 5-2 underlay -29%
Show:3Victoria's Rocket (8/1) 13% · fair 7-1
Other contenders:6Mo Holland Drive (5/1) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -40%, 7Andtheomofthebrave (9/2) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -67%, 5Sterling Sea (12/1) 7% · fair 14-1
Rest of field:8Agrowest (20/1) 3% · fair 57-2 underlay -30%, 2Bad Uncle Ernie (30/1) 2% · fair 54-1 underlay -44%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Scene By Me — 29.5% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Scene By Me29.5% ◀Grey'S Boy — 28.2% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Grey'S Boy28.2%Victoria'S Rocket — 12.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Victoria'S Rocket12.6%Mo Holland Drive — 10.8% win probability, morning line 5/1Mo Holland Drive10.8%Andtheomofthebrave — 6.9% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Andtheomofthebrave6.9%Sterling Sea — 6.7% win probability, morning line 12/1Sterling Sea6.7%Agrowest — 3.4% win probability, morning line 20/1Agrowest3.4%Bad Uncle Ernie — 1.8% win probability, morning line 30/1Bad Uncle Ernie1.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Scene By Me29.5%2.5/1
Grey'S Boy28.2%1.8/1
Victoria'S Rocket12.6%8/1
Mo Holland Drive10.8%5/1
Andtheomofthebrave6.9%4.5/1
Sterling Sea6.7%12/1
Agrowest3.4%20/1
Bad Uncle Ernie1.8%30/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherScene By Me: model 29.5% vs market 22.7% (+6.8 points)Scene By Me+6.8Grey'S Boy: model 28.2% vs market 28.4% (-0.1 points)Grey'S Boy-0.1Victoria'S Rocket: model 12.6% vs market 8.8% (+3.8 points)Victoria'S Rocket+3.8Mo Holland Drive: model 10.8% vs market 13.2% (-2.5 points)Mo Holland Drive-2.5Andtheomofthebrave: model 6.9% vs market 14.4% (-7.5 points)Andtheomofthebrave-7.5Sterling Sea: model 6.7% vs market 6.1% (+0.6 points)Sterling Sea+0.6Agrowest: model 3.4% vs market 3.8% (-0.4 points)Agrowest-0.4Bad Uncle Ernie: model 1.8% vs market 2.6% (-0.7 points)Bad Uncle Ernie-0.7

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Scene By Me29.5%22.7%+6.8
Grey'S Boy28.2%28.4%-0.1
Victoria'S Rocket12.6%8.8%+3.8
Mo Holland Drive10.8%13.2%-2.5
Andtheomofthebrave6.9%14.4%-7.5
Sterling Sea6.7%6.1%+0.6
Agrowest3.4%3.8%-0.4
Bad Uncle Ernie1.8%2.6%-0.7
🌧️ Off-track: 146735
🎯 Longshots: 14352876
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #3, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $67,000
Win:1Dottie Hinson (8/5) 31% · fair 2-1 underlay -27%
Place:3Kool Mariah (2/1) 31% · fair 5-2
Show:6Miss Practical (9/2) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -39%
Other contenders:5Dorie Miller (5/1) 11% · fair 15-2 underlay -35%, 2Baby Needs Shoes (8/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -35%
Rest of field:4Cotta Ride (10/1) 7% · fair 13-1
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Dottie Hinson — 31.3% win probability, morning line 1.6/1Dottie Hinson31.3% ◀Kool Mariah — 30.6% win probability, morning line 2/1Kool Mariah30.6%Miss Practical — 12.0% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Miss Practical12.0%Dorie Miller — 11.5% win probability, morning line 5/1Dorie Miller11.5%Baby Needs Shoes — 7.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Baby Needs Shoes7.6%Cotta Ride — 7.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Cotta Ride7.1%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Dottie Hinson31.3%1.6/1
Kool Mariah30.6%2/1
Miss Practical12.0%4.5/1
Dorie Miller11.5%5/1
Baby Needs Shoes7.6%8/1
Cotta Ride7.1%10/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherDottie Hinson: model 31.3% vs market 30.3% (+1.0 points)Dottie Hinson+1.0Kool Mariah: model 30.6% vs market 26.3% (+4.3 points)Kool Mariah+4.3Miss Practical: model 12.0% vs market 14.3% (-2.4 points)Miss Practical-2.4Dorie Miller: model 11.5% vs market 13.1% (-1.7 points)Dorie Miller-1.7Baby Needs Shoes: model 7.6% vs market 8.8% (-1.2 points)Baby Needs Shoes-1.2Cotta Ride: model 7.1% vs market 7.2% (-0.1 points)Cotta Ride-0.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Dottie Hinson31.3%30.3%+1.0
Kool Mariah30.6%26.3%+4.3
Miss Practical12.0%14.3%-2.4
Dorie Miller11.5%13.1%-1.7
Baby Needs Shoes7.6%8.8%-1.2
Cotta Ride7.1%7.2%-0.1
🌧️ Off-track: 136524
🎯 Longshots: 134265
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
 
Race 5  1 1/8 Miles · Turf · Starter Allowance · Purse $29,000
Win:6Dairago (8/5) 27% · fair 5-2 underlay -41%
Place:4Caisson (5/2) 20% · fair 4-1 underlay -36%
Show:1Geometry (7/2) 16% · fair 11-2 underlay -34%
Other contenders:9Fomo Joe (9/2) 12% · fair 7-1 underlay -36%, 8Grandisimo (10/1) 8% · fair 12-1, 7Jimmy Blue Jeans (6/1) 7% · fair 13-1 underlay -54%
Rest of field:10Oobubbakakayo (15/1) 3% · fair 29-1 underlay -48%, 5Cathal (12/1) 2% · fair 79-2 underlay -70%, 3Rhythem On Stage (20/1) 2% · fair 51-1 underlay -61%, 2Spearfish (30/1) 2% · fair 111-2 underlay -46%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Dairago — 27.0% win probability, morning line 1.6/1Dairago27.0% ◀Caisson — 20.4% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Caisson20.4%Geometry — 15.9% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Geometry15.9%Fomo Joe — 12.4% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Fomo Joe12.4%Grandisimo — 7.7% win probability, morning line 10/1Grandisimo7.7%Jimmy Blue Jeans — 7.1% win probability, morning line 6/1Jimmy Blue Jeans7.1%Oobubbakakayo — 3.3% win probability, morning line 15/1Oobubbakakayo3.3%Cathal — 2.5% win probability, morning line 12/1Cathal2.5%Rhythem On Stage — 1.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Rhythem On Stage1.9%Spearfish — 1.8% win probability, morning line 30/1Spearfish1.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Dairago27.0%1.6/1
Caisson20.4%2.5/1
Geometry15.9%3.5/1
Fomo Joe12.4%4.5/1
Grandisimo7.7%10/1
Jimmy Blue Jeans7.1%6/1
Oobubbakakayo3.3%15/1
Cathal2.5%12/1
Rhythem On Stage1.9%20/1
Spearfish1.8%30/1
🌧️ Off-track: 641978
🎯 Longshots: 64510892137
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #1, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $16,000
Win:5Mystic Moses (8/5) 27% · fair 5-2 underlay -41%
Place:8Hungover (7/2) 25% · fair 3-1
Show:6He's Got Fire (4/1) 19% · fair 9-2
Other contenders:2Fine Irish Morning (3/1) 16% · fair 11-2 underlay -45%, 7Tiger To You (20/1) 5% · fair 19-1, 4Foregoneconclusion (15/1) 5% · fair 41-2 underlay -27%
Rest of field:1Naudesnoodle (30/1) 3% · fair 29-1, 3Epic Hero (30/1) 1% · fair 186-1 underlay -84%, 9Zenjin (30/1) 0% · fair 617-1 underlay -95%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Mystic Moses — 26.8% win probability, morning line 1.6/1Mystic Moses26.8% ◀Hungover — 25.0% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Hungover25.0%He'S Got Fire — 19.0% win probability, morning line 4/1He'S Got Fire19.0%Fine Irish Morning — 15.5% win probability, morning line 3/1Fine Irish Morning15.5%Tiger To You — 5.0% win probability, morning line 20/1Tiger To You5.0%Foregoneconclusion — 4.6% win probability, morning line 15/1Foregoneconclusion4.6%Naudesnoodle — 3.4% win probability, morning line 30/1Naudesnoodle3.4%Epic Hero — 0.5% win probability, morning line 30/1Epic Hero0.5%Zenjin — 0.2% win probability, morning line 30/1Zenjin0.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Mystic Moses26.8%1.6/1
Hungover25.0%3.5/1
He'S Got Fire19.0%4/1
Fine Irish Morning15.5%3/1
Tiger To You5.0%20/1
Foregoneconclusion4.6%15/1
Naudesnoodle3.4%30/1
Epic Hero0.5%30/1
Zenjin0.2%30/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherMystic Moses: model 26.8% vs market 30.4% (-3.6 points)Mystic Moses-3.6Hungover: model 25.0% vs market 17.6% (+7.5 points)Hungover+7.5He'S Got Fire: model 19.0% vs market 15.8% (+3.1 points)He'S Got Fire+3.1Fine Irish Morning: model 15.5% vs market 19.8% (-4.3 points)Fine Irish Morning-4.3Tiger To You: model 5.0% vs market 3.8% (+1.2 points)Tiger To You+1.2Foregoneconclusion: model 4.6% vs market 4.9% (-0.3 points)Foregoneconclusion-0.3Naudesnoodle: model 3.4% vs market 2.6% (+0.8 points)Naudesnoodle+0.8Epic Hero: model 0.5% vs market 2.6% (-2.0 points)Epic Hero-2.0Zenjin: model 0.2% vs market 2.6% (-2.4 points)Zenjin-2.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Mystic Moses26.8%30.4%-3.6
Hungover25.0%17.6%+7.5
He'S Got Fire19.0%15.8%+3.1
Fine Irish Morning15.5%19.8%-4.3
Tiger To You5.0%3.8%+1.2
Foregoneconclusion4.6%4.9%-0.3
Naudesnoodle3.4%2.6%+0.8
Epic Hero0.5%2.6%-2.0
Zenjin0.2%2.6%-2.4
🌧️ Off-track: 582647
🎯 Longshots: 528761493
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #8, #6, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 1/4 Miles · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $67,000
Win:3Roselee May (4/1) 19% · fair 9-2
Place:1Midnight Horizon (7/2) 16% · fair 11-2 underlay -33%
Show:2Pentle Bay (6/1) 15% · fair 11-2
Other contenders:6Cailin Dana (8/1) 15% · fair 6-1 overlay +38%, 4Wink And A Grin (6/1) 12% · fair 7-1, 5Daring Pursuit (9/2) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -51%
Rest of field:8Dea Matrona (5/1) 7% · fair 13-1 underlay -61%, 7Lanilla (10/1) 6% · fair 31-2 underlay -35%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Roselee May — 18.9% win probability, morning line 4/1Roselee May18.9% ◀Midnight Horizon — 16.0% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Midnight Horizon16.0%Pentle Bay — 15.0% win probability, morning line 6/1Pentle Bay15.0%Cailin Dana — 14.7% win probability, morning line 8/1Cailin Dana14.7%Wink And A Grin — 12.2% win probability, morning line 6/1Wink And A Grin12.2%Daring Pursuit — 9.9% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Daring Pursuit9.9%Dea Matrona — 7.2% win probability, morning line 5/1Dea Matrona7.2%Lanilla — 6.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Lanilla6.1%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Roselee May18.9%4/1
Midnight Horizon16.0%3.5/1
Pentle Bay15.0%6/1
Cailin Dana14.7%8/1
Wink And A Grin12.2%6/1
Daring Pursuit9.9%4.5/1
Dea Matrona7.2%5/1
Lanilla6.1%10/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherRoselee May: model 18.9% vs market 15.9% (+3.0 points)Roselee May+3.0Midnight Horizon: model 16.0% vs market 17.7% (-1.7 points)Midnight Horizon-1.7Pentle Bay: model 15.0% vs market 11.4% (+3.7 points)Pentle Bay+3.7Cailin Dana: model 14.7% vs market 8.8% (+5.9 points)Cailin Dana+5.9Wink And A Grin: model 12.2% vs market 11.4% (+0.8 points)Wink And A Grin+0.8Daring Pursuit: model 9.9% vs market 14.4% (-4.5 points)Daring Pursuit-4.5Dea Matrona: model 7.2% vs market 13.2% (-6.0 points)Dea Matrona-6.0Lanilla: model 6.1% vs market 7.2% (-1.1 points)Lanilla-1.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Roselee May18.9%15.9%+3.0
Midnight Horizon16.0%17.7%-1.7
Pentle Bay15.0%11.4%+3.7
Cailin Dana14.7%8.8%+5.9
Wink And A Grin12.2%11.4%+0.8
Daring Pursuit9.9%14.4%-4.5
Dea Matrona7.2%13.2%-6.0
Lanilla6.1%7.2%-1.1
🌧️ Off-track: 312645
🎯 Longshots: 63174528
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $21,000
Win:10Jade's Most Wanted (5/2) 22% · fair 7-2 underlay -28%
Place:2Harkette (5/1) 19% · fair 4-1
Show:7Thirsty Caitlin (8/1) 13% · fair 13-2
Other contenders:8Chachacha Ching (10/1) 12% · fair 7-1 overlay +38%, 9Lucky Tammy (5/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -45%, 3Shemakesmemad (15/1) 6% · fair 29-2, 1Zayda At The Spa (20/1) 5% · fair 39-2
Rest of field:4Fiery Tiger (10/1) 5% · fair 21-1 underlay -52%, 11Beastro (30/1) 4% · fair 51-2, 6Quick Up (30/1) 2% · fair 47-1 underlay -36%, 5Az Daisy (30/1) 1% · fair 135-2 underlay -55%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Jade'S Most Wanted — 22.3% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Jade'S Most Wanted22.3% ◀Harkette — 19.2% win probability, morning line 5/1Harkette19.2%Thirsty Caitlin — 13.2% win probability, morning line 8/1Thirsty Caitlin13.2%Chachacha Ching — 12.2% win probability, morning line 10/1Chachacha Ching12.2%Lucky Tammy — 10.0% win probability, morning line 5/1Lucky Tammy10.0%Shemakesmemad — 6.4% win probability, morning line 15/1Shemakesmemad6.4%Zayda At The Spa — 4.8% win probability, morning line 20/1Zayda At The Spa4.8%Fiery Tiger — 4.5% win probability, morning line 10/1Fiery Tiger4.5%Beastro — 3.8% win probability, morning line 30/1Beastro3.8%Quick Up — 2.1% win probability, morning line 30/1Quick Up2.1%Az Daisy — 1.5% win probability, morning line 30/1Az Daisy1.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Jade'S Most Wanted22.3%2.5/1
Harkette19.2%5/1
Thirsty Caitlin13.2%8/1
Chachacha Ching12.2%10/1
Lucky Tammy10.0%5/1
Shemakesmemad6.4%15/1
Zayda At The Spa4.8%20/1
Fiery Tiger4.5%10/1
Beastro3.8%30/1
Quick Up2.1%30/1
Az Daisy1.5%30/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherJade'S Most Wanted: model 22.3% vs market 25.5% (-3.2 points)Jade'S Most Wanted-3.2Harkette: model 19.2% vs market 14.9% (+4.3 points)Harkette+4.3Thirsty Caitlin: model 13.2% vs market 9.9% (+3.2 points)Thirsty Caitlin+3.2Chachacha Ching: model 12.2% vs market 8.1% (+4.0 points)Chachacha Ching+4.0Lucky Tammy: model 10.0% vs market 14.9% (-4.9 points)Lucky Tammy-4.9Shemakesmemad: model 6.4% vs market 5.6% (+0.8 points)Shemakesmemad+0.8Zayda At The Spa: model 4.8% vs market 4.3% (+0.6 points)Zayda At The Spa+0.6Fiery Tiger: model 4.5% vs market 8.1% (-3.6 points)Fiery Tiger-3.6Beastro: model 3.8% vs market 2.9% (+0.9 points)Beastro+0.9Quick Up: model 2.1% vs market 2.9% (-0.8 points)Quick Up-0.8Az Daisy: model 1.5% vs market 2.9% (-1.4 points)Az Daisy-1.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Jade'S Most Wanted22.3%25.5%-3.2
Harkette19.2%14.9%+4.3
Thirsty Caitlin13.2%9.9%+3.2
Chachacha Ching12.2%8.1%+4.0
Lucky Tammy10.0%14.9%-4.9
Shemakesmemad6.4%5.6%+0.8
Zayda At The Spa4.8%4.3%+0.6
Fiery Tiger4.5%8.1%-3.6
Beastro3.8%2.9%+0.9
Quick Up2.1%2.9%-0.8
Az Daisy1.5%2.9%-1.4
🌧️ Off-track: 1029784
🎯 Longshots: 7108932164115
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #2, #7, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $65,000
Win:9Zakiel (8/5) 34% · fair 2-1
Place:3Columnist (7/2) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -30%
Show:2Royal Rumor (6/1) 14% · fair 6-1
Other contenders:4Chaotic Neutral (8/1) 11% · fair 8-1, 6Strike It Solo (8/1) 10% · fair 19-2, 5Soul Force (8/1) 7% · fair 25-2 underlay -37%
Rest of field:8Gray Thunder (10/1) 4% · fair 23-1 underlay -57%, 1Blindly Loyal (20/1) 2% · fair 87-2 underlay -54%, 7Unconventional (20/1) 1% · fair 313-2 underlay -87%
Race 9 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Zakiel — 34.3% win probability, morning line 1.6/1Zakiel34.3% ◀Columnist — 16.8% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Columnist16.8%Royal Rumor — 13.8% win probability, morning line 6/1Royal Rumor13.8%Chaotic Neutral — 11.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Chaotic Neutral11.0%Strike It Solo — 9.7% win probability, morning line 8/1Strike It Solo9.7%Soul Force — 7.3% win probability, morning line 8/1Soul Force7.3%Gray Thunder — 4.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Gray Thunder4.1%Blindly Loyal — 2.3% win probability, morning line 20/1Blindly Loyal2.3%Unconventional — 0.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Unconventional0.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Zakiel34.3%1.6/1
Columnist16.8%3.5/1
Royal Rumor13.8%6/1
Chaotic Neutral11.0%8/1
Strike It Solo9.7%8/1
Soul Force7.3%8/1
Gray Thunder4.1%10/1
Blindly Loyal2.3%20/1
Unconventional0.6%20/1
Race 9 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherZakiel: model 34.3% vs market 30.3% (+4.0 points)Zakiel+4.0Columnist: model 16.8% vs market 17.5% (-0.8 points)Columnist-0.8Royal Rumor: model 13.8% vs market 11.3% (+2.6 points)Royal Rumor+2.6Chaotic Neutral: model 11.0% vs market 8.8% (+2.3 points)Chaotic Neutral+2.3Strike It Solo: model 9.7% vs market 8.8% (+1.0 points)Strike It Solo+1.0Soul Force: model 7.3% vs market 8.8% (-1.4 points)Soul Force-1.4Gray Thunder: model 4.1% vs market 7.2% (-3.0 points)Gray Thunder-3.0Blindly Loyal: model 2.3% vs market 3.8% (-1.5 points)Blindly Loyal-1.5Unconventional: model 0.6% vs market 3.8% (-3.1 points)Unconventional-3.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Zakiel34.3%30.3%+4.0
Columnist16.8%17.5%-0.8
Royal Rumor13.8%11.3%+2.6
Chaotic Neutral11.0%8.8%+2.3
Strike It Solo9.7%8.8%+1.0
Soul Force7.3%8.8%-1.4
Gray Thunder4.1%7.2%-3.0
Blindly Loyal2.3%3.8%-1.5
Unconventional0.6%3.8%-3.1
🌧️ Off-track: 932465
🎯 Longshots: 934685217
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #3, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
Algo 1 (Weighted Rating) at Santa Anita Park — average winning payout

What a $2 win bet returned WHEN THE PICK WON. 373 graded races at Santa Anita Park, 2026-04-02 to 2026-10-12.

$0$2$4$5$7Our top pick: $5.61 from 109 racesOur top pick$5.61Morning-line favourite: $4.75 from 131 racesMorning-line favourite$4.75

This is the size of a winning payout, not a measure of profit — a pick that wins less often at a longer price can average more per winner and still lose money over the month. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupAverage payoutWinners
Our top pick$5.61109
Morning-line favourite$4.75131
 
Race 1  6 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $27,000
Win:5Miles Finch (1/1)
Place:3Danzing Wild Cat (6/1)
Show:1Letmein (5/1)
Other contenders:7Hurricane Way (6/1), 4Sun Chaser (15/1), 8Luck Lucky (9/2)
Rest of field:6Maddie Tee (20/1), 2Need Mo Diamonds (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 513874
🎯 Longshots: 54871326
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #1, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $24,000
Win:3Ima Track Star (3/5)
Place:2Southern Melodee (4/1)
Show:1Chase N Ryan (6/1)
Other contenders:4Singlemore (4/1), 5Meeking (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 32415
🎯 Longshots: 35421
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $27,000
Win:1Grey's Boy (9/5)
Place:3Victoria's Rocket (8/1)
Show:4Scene By Me (5/2)
Other contenders:6Mo Holland Drive (5/1), 7Andtheomofthebrave (9/2), 5Sterling Sea (12/1)
Rest of field:8Agrowest (20/1), 2Bad Uncle Ernie (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 147635
🎯 Longshots: 14352876
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $67,000
Win:1Dottie Hinson (8/5)
Place:3Kool Mariah (2/1)
Show:6Miss Practical (9/2)
Other contenders:5Dorie Miller (5/1), 2Baby Needs Shoes (8/1)
Rest of field:4Cotta Ride (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 136524
🎯 Longshots: 134265
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
 
Race 5  1 1/8 Miles · Turf · Starter Allowance · Purse $29,000
Win:1Geometry (7/2)
Place:4Caisson (5/2)
Show:6Dairago (8/5)
Other contenders:9Fomo Joe (9/2), 7Jimmy Blue Jeans (6/1), 2Spearfish (30/1)
Rest of field:10Oobubbakakayo (15/1), 5Cathal (12/1), 8Grandisimo (10/1), 3Rhythem On Stage (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 641978
🎯 Longshots: 64510892137
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #6, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $16,000
Win:5Mystic Moses (8/5)
Place:2Fine Irish Morning (3/1)
Show:8Hungover (7/2)
Other contenders:6He's Got Fire (4/1), 7Tiger To You (20/1), 1Naudesnoodle (30/1)
Rest of field:4Foregoneconclusion (15/1), 3Epic Hero (30/1), 9Zenjin (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 528647
🎯 Longshots: 528761493
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #8, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 1/4 Miles · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $67,000
Win:3Roselee May (4/1)
Place:6Cailin Dana (8/1)
Show:2Pentle Bay (6/1)
Other contenders:5Daring Pursuit (9/2), 1Midnight Horizon (7/2), 4Wink And A Grin (6/1)
Rest of field:8Dea Matrona (5/1), 7Lanilla (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 315264
🎯 Longshots: 63174528
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $21,000
Win:10Jade's Most Wanted (5/2)
Place:2Harkette (5/1)
Show:8Chachacha Ching (10/1)
Other contenders:7Thirsty Caitlin (8/1), 9Lucky Tammy (5/1), 3Shemakesmemad (15/1), 1Zayda At The Spa (20/1)
Rest of field:6Quick Up (30/1), 11Beastro (30/1), 5Az Daisy (30/1), 4Fiery Tiger (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1029784
🎯 Longshots: 7108932164115
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #2, #8, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $65,000
Win:2Royal Rumor (6/1) no strong opinion
This rating tops the card at a price, which is the one case where it has not beaten the market. Treat it as a name to look at, not a selection.
Place:9Zakiel (8/5)
Show:3Columnist (7/2)
Other contenders:5Soul Force (8/1), 4Chaotic Neutral (8/1), 6Strike It Solo (8/1)
Rest of field:8Gray Thunder (10/1), 1Blindly Loyal (20/1), 7Unconventional (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 932546
🎯 Longshots: 934685217
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #9, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the CatBoost-ordered straight exacta ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #5 over #1 ($1 straight; box #5-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #1, #4, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #3 over #4 ($1 straight; box #3-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #2, #4, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #4 over #1 ($1 straight; box #4-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #4, #3, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #1 over #3 ($1 straight; box #1-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #3, #6, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
Race 5AI Exacta: #6 over #4 ($1 straight; box #6-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #6, #1, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #5 over #8 ($1 straight; box #5-#8 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #2, #8, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #3 over #1 ($1 straight; box #3-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #5, #6, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #10 over #7 ($1 straight; box #10-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #10, #8, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 9AI Exacta: #9 over #3 ($1 straight; box #9-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #9 over #3, #2, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Morning-line reliability: +0.43 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)    Weekend sizing: ×0.80 (edge & stake trimmed — weekend longshots win less than their edge implies; the longshot list itself is unchanged)
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $
bankroll
61Naudesnoodle ⚠ high risk: maiden race, 20-1 or longer30/1—5.0%+49.4%0.41%$0.41
86Quick Up ⚠ high risk: maiden race, 20-1 or longer30/1—4.2%+26.6%0.22%$0.22
67Tiger To You ⚠ high risk: maiden race, 20-1 or longer20/1—6.0%+23.2%0.29%$0.29
81Zayda At The Spa ⚠ high risk: maiden race, 20-1 or longer20/1—5.8%+20.5%0.26%$0.26
88Chachacha Ching10/1—11.0%+19.3%0.48%$0.48
14Sun Chaser15/1—7.5%+18.4%0.31%$0.31
811Beastro ⚠ high risk: maiden race, 20-1 or longer30/1—3.8%+16.0%0.13%$0.13
TOTAL across 7 plays:2.1%$2.10
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
⚠ High risk: 20-1 or longer. Since late June our longshot picks at these odds have won about 3 times in 100 and lost about half of every dollar bet; in maiden races they do worse still.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $27,000
Win:5Miles Finch (1/1)
Place:1Letmein (5/1)
Show:3Danzing Wild Cat (6/1)
Other contenders:7Hurricane Way (6/1), 8Luck Lucky (9/2), 4Sun Chaser (15/1)
Rest of field:6Maddie Tee (20/1), 2Need Mo Diamonds (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 518374
🎯 Longshots: 54871326
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #3, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $24,000
Win:3Ima Track Star (3/5)
Place:2Southern Melodee (4/1)
Show:1Chase N Ryan (6/1)
Other contenders:4Singlemore (4/1), 5Meeking (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 32415
🎯 Longshots: 35421
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $27,000
Win:3Victoria's Rocket (8/1)
Place:1Grey's Boy (9/5)
Show:4Scene By Me (5/2)
Other contenders:5Sterling Sea (12/1), 7Andtheomofthebrave (9/2), 6Mo Holland Drive (5/1)
Rest of field:8Agrowest (20/1), 2Bad Uncle Ernie (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 143765
🎯 Longshots: 14352876
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $67,000
Win:1Dottie Hinson (8/5)
Place:3Kool Mariah (2/1)
Show:6Miss Practical (9/2)
Other contenders:4Cotta Ride (10/1), 2Baby Needs Shoes (8/1)
Rest of field:5Dorie Miller (5/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 136524
🎯 Longshots: 134265
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #6, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
 
Race 5  1 1/8 Miles · Turf · Starter Allowance · Purse $29,000
Win:4Caisson (5/2)
Place:6Dairago (8/5)
Show:9Fomo Joe (9/2)
Other contenders:1Geometry (7/2), 5Cathal (12/1), 10Oobubbakakayo (15/1)
Rest of field:3Rhythem On Stage (20/1), 7Jimmy Blue Jeans (6/1), 8Grandisimo (10/1), 2Spearfish (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 641975
🎯 Longshots: 64510892137
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #9, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $16,000
Win:5Mystic Moses (8/5)
Place:8Hungover (7/2)
Show:6He's Got Fire (4/1)
Other contenders:2Fine Irish Morning (3/1), 4Foregoneconclusion (15/1), 7Tiger To You (20/1)
Rest of field:1Naudesnoodle (30/1), 9Zenjin (30/1), 3Epic Hero (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 528647
🎯 Longshots: 528761493
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #8, #6, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 1/4 Miles · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $67,000
Win:3Roselee May (4/1)
Place:4Wink And A Grin (6/1)
Show:1Midnight Horizon (7/2)
Other contenders:2Pentle Bay (6/1), 6Cailin Dana (8/1), 8Dea Matrona (5/1)
Rest of field:5Daring Pursuit (9/2), 7Lanilla (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 314285
🎯 Longshots: 63174528
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $21,000
Win:10Jade's Most Wanted (5/2)
Place:2Harkette (5/1)
Show:9Lucky Tammy (5/1)
Other contenders:8Chachacha Ching (10/1), 7Thirsty Caitlin (8/1), 3Shemakesmemad (15/1), 4Fiery Tiger (10/1)
Rest of field:1Zayda At The Spa (20/1), 6Quick Up (30/1), 11Beastro (30/1), 5Az Daisy (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1029784
🎯 Longshots: 7108932164115
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #2, #9, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $65,000
Win:2Royal Rumor (6/1)
Place:9Zakiel (8/5)
Show:3Columnist (7/2)
Other contenders:6Strike It Solo (8/1), 5Soul Force (8/1), 4Chaotic Neutral (8/1)
Rest of field:1Blindly Loyal (20/1), 8Gray Thunder (10/1), 7Unconventional (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 932654
🎯 Longshots: 934685217
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #9, #3, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $27,000
Win:5Miles Finch (1/1)
Place:1Letmein (5/1)
Show:4Sun Chaser (15/1)
Other contenders:7Hurricane Way (6/1), 3Danzing Wild Cat (6/1), 8Luck Lucky (9/2)
Rest of field:2Need Mo Diamonds (30/1), 6Maddie Tee (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 518734
🎯 Longshots: 54871326
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #4, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $24,000
Win:3Ima Track Star (3/5)
Place:2Southern Melodee (4/1)
Show:4Singlemore (4/1)
Other contenders:1Chase N Ryan (6/1), 5Meeking (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 32415
🎯 Longshots: 35421
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $27,000
Win:1Grey's Boy (9/5)
Place:4Scene By Me (5/2)
Show:3Victoria's Rocket (8/1)
Other contenders:7Andtheomofthebrave (9/2), 6Mo Holland Drive (5/1), 5Sterling Sea (12/1)
Rest of field:8Agrowest (20/1), 2Bad Uncle Ernie (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 147635
🎯 Longshots: 14352876
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #3, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $67,000
Win:1Dottie Hinson (8/5)
Place:3Kool Mariah (2/1)
Show:6Miss Practical (9/2)
Other contenders:5Dorie Miller (5/1), 2Baby Needs Shoes (8/1)
Rest of field:4Cotta Ride (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 136524
🎯 Longshots: 134265
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
 
Race 5  1 1/8 Miles · Turf · Starter Allowance · Purse $29,000
Win:4Caisson (5/2)
Place:6Dairago (8/5)
Show:1Geometry (7/2)
Other contenders:5Cathal (12/1), 7Jimmy Blue Jeans (6/1), 9Fomo Joe (9/2)
Rest of field:8Grandisimo (10/1), 2Spearfish (30/1), 10Oobubbakakayo (15/1), 3Rhythem On Stage (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 641978
🎯 Longshots: 64510892137
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $16,000
Win:5Mystic Moses (8/5)
Place:2Fine Irish Morning (3/1)
Show:8Hungover (7/2)
Other contenders:6He's Got Fire (4/1), 7Tiger To You (20/1), 4Foregoneconclusion (15/1)
Rest of field:1Naudesnoodle (30/1), 3Epic Hero (30/1), 9Zenjin (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 528647
🎯 Longshots: 528761493
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #8, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 1/4 Miles · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $67,000
Win:3Roselee May (4/1)
Place:5Daring Pursuit (9/2)
Show:6Cailin Dana (8/1)
Other contenders:2Pentle Bay (6/1), 1Midnight Horizon (7/2), 4Wink And A Grin (6/1)
Rest of field:8Dea Matrona (5/1), 7Lanilla (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 315284
🎯 Longshots: 63174528
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #6, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $21,000
Win:2Harkette (5/1)
Place:10Jade's Most Wanted (5/2)
Show:8Chachacha Ching (10/1)
Other contenders:7Thirsty Caitlin (8/1), 3Shemakesmemad (15/1), 9Lucky Tammy (5/1), 1Zayda At The Spa (20/1)
Rest of field:4Fiery Tiger (10/1), 6Quick Up (30/1), 11Beastro (30/1), 5Az Daisy (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1029784
🎯 Longshots: 7108932164115
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #10, #8, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $65,000
Win:9Zakiel (8/5)
Place:3Columnist (7/2)
Show:2Royal Rumor (6/1)
Other contenders:4Chaotic Neutral (8/1), 5Soul Force (8/1), 6Strike It Solo (8/1)
Rest of field:8Gray Thunder (10/1), 1Blindly Loyal (20/1), 7Unconventional (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 932456
🎯 Longshots: 934685217
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #3, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R1-3R1: #5,#1,#7 (68%) / R2: #3,#4 (70%) / R3: #4,#1,#3 (70%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 33%
Pick 3 R2-4R2: #3,#4 (70%) / R3: #4,#1,#3 (70%) / R4: #1,#3 (62%)
$12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 30%
Pick 3 R3-5R3: #4,#1,#3 (70%) / R4: #1,#3 (62%) / R5: #6,#4,#1 (63%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 28%
Pick 3 R4-6R4: #1,#3 (62%) / R5: #6,#4,#1 (63%) / R6: #5,#8,#6 (71%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 28%
Pick 4 R1-4R1: #5,#1,#7 (68%) / R2: #3,#4 (70%) / R3: #4,#1,#3 (70%) / R4: #1,#3 (62%)
$36 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 21%
Pick 4 R2-5R2: #3,#4 (70%) / R3: #4,#1,#3 (70%) / R4: #1,#3 (62%) / R5: #6,#4,#1 (63%)
$36 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 19%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
AGROWESTANDTHEOMOFTHEBRAVEAZ DAISYBABY NEEDS SHOESBAD UNCLE ERNIE
BLINDLY LOYALCAILIN DANACAISSONCATHALCHACHACHA CHING
CHASE N RYANCOLUMNISTCOTTA RIDEDAIRAGODANZING WILD CAT
DEA MATRONADORIE MILLERDOTTIE HINSONEPIC HEROFIERY TIGER
FOMO JOEFOREGONECONCLUSIONGEOMETRYGRANDISIMOGRAY THUNDER
HARKETTEHE'S GOT FIREHUNGOVERHURRICANE WAYIMA TRACK STAR
JIMMY BLUE JEANSKOOL MARIAHLANILLALETMEINLUCK LUCKY
MADDIE TEEMEEKINGMIDNIGHT HORIZONMILES FINCHMISS PRACTICAL
MYSTIC MOSESNAUDESNOODLENEED MO DIAMONDSOOBUBBAKAKAYOPENTLE BAY
RHYTHEM ON STAGEROSELEE MAYROYAL RUMORSCENE BY MESHEMAKESMEMAD
SOUL FORCESOUTHERN MELODEESPEARFISHSTERLING SEASTRIKE IT SOLO
THIRSTY CAITLINTIGER TO YOUUNCONVENTIONALVICTORIA'S ROCKETWINK AND A GRIN
ZAYDA AT THE SPAZENJIN

 


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