Pick Pony Picks – Consensus Expert Picks for Churchill Downs, November 11, 2026.


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Pick Pony takes pride in providing the most accurate expert picks available today. Pick Pony Expert Picks are carefully selected by our team of analysts based on analytics from our advanced Past Performance Sheets and Racing Forms. For potential longshot selections, check out Pick Pony's AI Picks.

How often our pick wins, by its price

AI Ensemble top picks grouped by morning-line odds.

0%13%26%39%51%Odds-on to 5/2: 41.1% from 2,566 racesOdds-on to 5/241.1%5/2 to 5/1: 29.6% from 2,334 races5/2 to 5/129.6%Longer than 5/1: 30.2% from 86 racesLonger than 5/130.2%

Short-priced selections are where the model is strongest.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Odds-on to 5/241.1%2,566
5/2 to 5/129.6%2,334
Longer than 5/130.2%86

Consensus Expert Picks

Consensus rankings based on 4 experts. Scoring: 1st pick = 4 pts, 2nd = 3 pts, 3rd = 2 pts, 4th = 1 pt. Agreement % = share of experts that included each horse. A gold star (⭐) next to a horse means Pick Pony's AI independently ranks that horse #1 as well — historically the strongest-hitting subset of picks. A recycle mark (↻) means that AI pick is the re-ranked one, after this morning's official scratches and surface changes were applied.

Race 1

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:7 – Don't Say It (2-1) ⭐4/4100.0%14 pts
Place:3 – Best Cupcake (3-1)3/475.0%9 pts
Show:4 – Turf Rocket (4-1)3/475.0%8 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:6 – Vicki Rose (4-1)1/425.0%1 pts
Alt 2:1 – Street Painter (12-1)1/425.0%1 pts
Alt 3:5 – Patty Cakes (8-1)0/40.0%0 pts
Alt 4:2 – Mombayla (20-1)0/40.0%0 pts

Race 2

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:4 – Salty Viking (2-1) ⭐4/4100.0%16 pts
Place:2 – Lux Aeterna (8-1)3/475.0%5 pts
Show:5 – Mo Octane (3-1)2/450.0%6 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:6 – Moycullen (4-1)2/450.0%5 pts
Alt 2:1 – Charging Force (5-1)1/425.0%1 pts
Alt 3:3 – Linus (6-1)0/40.0%0 pts
Alt 4:7 – Patricio (15-1)0/40.0%0 pts
Alt 5:8 – Gogoplex (10-1)0/40.0%0 pts

Race 3

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:6 – Onthestage (2-1) ⭐3/475.0%9 pts
Place:4 – Dai Vernon (6-1)2/450.0%6 pts
Show:2 – J B Strikes Back (4-1)2/450.0%5 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:5 – National Eclipse (2-1)2/450.0%5 pts
Alt 2:3 – Neon Nights (8-1)2/450.0%5 pts
Alt 3:1 – Mena (5-1)1/425.0%3 pts

Race 4

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:6 – Belzoni (1-1) ⭐4/4100.0%15 pts
Place:8 – Kamassa (4-1)3/475.0%8 pts
Show:1 – Acuff (12-1)2/450.0%2 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:4 – Torcello (5-1)1/425.0%4 pts
Alt 2:5 – The Last Campaign (8-1)1/425.0%2 pts
Alt 3:3 – Wiley Operator (10-1)1/425.0%2 pts
Alt 4:2 – Johnny Wyoming (15-1)0/40.0%0 pts
Alt 5:7 – Star Of The Union (6-1)0/40.0%0 pts

Race 5

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:15 – Castle Pines (6-1)2/450.0%6 pts
Place:8 – Mo Way (2-1)2/450.0%6 pts
Show:4 – American Veteran (3-1)2/450.0%5 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:7 – Voa Broadway (15-1)1/425.0%4 pts
Alt 2:5 – Sweeten The Pot (15-1)1/425.0%4 pts
Alt 3:13 – Platinum Power (15-1)1/425.0%3 pts
Alt 4:12 – Rivelli (12-1)1/425.0%2 pts
Alt 5:16 – Best Screenplay (12-1)1/425.0%2 pts
Alt 6:9 – Kauffman (10-1)1/425.0%1 pts
Alt 7:10 – Mo Misery (8-1)0/40.0%0 pts
Alt 8:1 – Which One (10-1)0/40.0%0 pts
Alt 9:11 – Col Frank Slade (6-1)0/40.0%0 pts
Alt 10:14 – Code Of Arms (20-1)0/40.0%0 pts
Alt 11:6 – Midway Gold (30-1)0/40.0%0 pts
Alt 12:2 – Forty One Carrots (20-1)0/40.0%0 pts
Alt 13:3 – Epic Sanguine (30-1)0/40.0%0 pts

Race 6

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:9 – Cara Felce (6-1)4/4100.0%13 pts
Place:2 – Muffin Music (8-1)3/475.0%7 pts
Show:1 – Tizianna (12-1)2/450.0%4 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:6 – Lost Chord (4-1)1/425.0%4 pts
Alt 2:10 – Faire Plaisir (2-1)1/425.0%3 pts
Alt 3:7 – Galatina (20-1)1/425.0%2 pts
Alt 4:4 – Love Knicks Hart (4-1)0/40.0%0 pts
Alt 5:5 – Hold My Halo (10-1)0/40.0%0 pts
Alt 6:8 – Modern Sound (15-1)0/40.0%0 pts
Alt 7:3 – Mom's Cheesecake (20-1)0/40.0%0 pts

Race 7

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:12 – Cybersteel (2-1) ⭐4/4100.0%14 pts
Place:7 – Uncle With Money (12-1)2/450.0%5 pts
Show:5 – Clever Heist (8-1)1/425.0%4 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:6 – Reach For Glory (30-1)1/425.0%3 pts
Alt 2:11 – Centricity (30-1)1/425.0%3 pts
Alt 3:3 – High Status (20-1)1/425.0%2 pts
Alt 4:1 – Enoughisenough (4-1)1/425.0%1 pts
Alt 5:8 – Lawson's Legacy (10-1)1/425.0%1 pts
Alt 6:9 – Glacier (6-1)0/40.0%0 pts
Alt 7:10 – Grand Opry (8-1)0/40.0%0 pts
Alt 8:4 – Kilmaloo (20-1)0/40.0%0 pts
Alt 9:2 – Camping Siete (20-1)0/40.0%0 pts

Race 8

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:1 – Sinister Smile (5-1)3/475.0%9 pts
Place:13 – Beautiful War (4-1)2/450.0%7 pts
Show:10 – Irish Law (4-1)2/450.0%5 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:16 – Unitas (15-1)2/450.0%4 pts
Alt 2:3 – Without Caution (6-1)1/425.0%4 pts
Alt 3:7 – Golden Channel (8-1)1/425.0%2 pts
Alt 4:2 – City Of Oscars (6-1)1/425.0%2 pts
Alt 5:11 – Taterpie (15-1)0/40.0%0 pts
Alt 6:6 – Natural Rights (8-1)0/40.0%0 pts
Alt 7:9 – Atlal (20-1)0/40.0%0 pts
Alt 8:14 – Just Buy It (4-1)0/40.0%0 pts
Alt 9:4 – Epic Horsepower (12-1)0/40.0%0 pts
Alt 10:15 – Stackin Sats (10-1)0/40.0%0 pts
Alt 11:5 – Sheriff Bart (10-1)0/40.0%0 pts
Alt 12:8 – Time For Money (20-1)0/40.0%0 pts
Alt 13:12 – Ready For Peace (15-1)0/40.0%0 pts

Race 9

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:5 – Mcdavid (6-1)3/475.0%12 pts
Place:10 – Double Arrow (4-1)3/475.0%9 pts
Show:9 – Knicks Warrior (20-1)2/450.0%5 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:8 – Beam Tracker (6-1)1/425.0%3 pts
Alt 2:6 – Francisco (10-1)1/425.0%1 pts
Alt 3:1 – Crispy Cool (20-1)0/40.0%0 pts
Alt 4:2 – Arbitrage (30-1)0/40.0%0 pts
Alt 5:3 – Defrosted (20-1)0/40.0%0 pts
Alt 6:4 – Five For Four (8-1)0/40.0%0 pts
Alt 7:7 – One Cent (20-1)0/40.0%0 pts
Alt 8:11 – High Hard One (8-1)0/40.0%0 pts
Alt 9:12 – Final Statement (3-1)0/40.0%0 pts

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