Pick Pony Picks – Consensus Expert Picks for Churchill Downs, November 6, 2026.


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Pick Pony takes pride in providing the most accurate expert picks available today. Pick Pony Expert Picks are carefully selected by our team of analysts based on analytics from our advanced Past Performance Sheets and Racing Forms. For potential longshot selections, check out Pick Pony's AI Picks.

How often our pick wins, by its price

AI Ensemble top picks grouped by morning-line odds.

0%13%26%39%52%Odds-on to 5/2: 41.6% from 2,472 racesOdds-on to 5/241.6%5/2 to 5/1: 29.9% from 2,246 races5/2 to 5/129.9%Longer than 5/1: 30.1% from 83 racesLonger than 5/130.1%

Short-priced selections are where the model is strongest.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Odds-on to 5/241.6%2,472
5/2 to 5/129.9%2,246
Longer than 5/130.1%83

Consensus Expert Picks

Consensus rankings based on 5 experts. Scoring: 1st pick = 4 pts, 2nd = 3 pts, 3rd = 2 pts, 4th = 1 pt. Agreement % = share of experts that included each horse. A gold star (⭐) next to a horse means Pick Pony's AI independently ranks that horse #1 as well — historically the strongest-hitting subset of picks. A recycle mark (↻) means that AI pick is the re-ranked one, after this morning's official scratches and surface changes were applied.

Race 1

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:2 – National Forest (1-1) ⭐5/5100.0%18 pts
Place:3 – Dark Sky (6-1)3/560.0%8 pts
Show:5 – Frosty Jack (4-1)2/540.0%5 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:6 – Lowcountry Promise (6-1)1/520.0%4 pts
Alt 2:1 – Free And Happy (15-1)1/520.0%2 pts
Alt 3:7 – Tyrone Terrific (8-1)1/520.0%2 pts
Alt 4:4 – Authentic Surprise (15-1)0/50.0%0 pts

Race 2

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:9 – Sutura (2-1) ⭐3/560.0%11 pts
Place:5 – Sweet Reward (4-1)3/560.0%8 pts
Show:6 – Hey Miss Olivia (4-1)3/560.0%6 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:10 – Beach Ballad (4-1)2/540.0%7 pts
Alt 2:8 – Ralley To Me (10-1)2/540.0%4 pts
Alt 3:7 – Rumor Mill (15-1)1/520.0%4 pts
Alt 4:13 – Musical Mary (15-1)1/520.0%2 pts
Alt 5:4 – Abita Springs (12-1)0/50.0%0 pts
Alt 6:3 – Cocoa Bean (30-1)0/50.0%0 pts
Alt 7:12 – Cheddar (12-1)0/50.0%0 pts
Alt 8:2 – Mundy Sweep (20-1)0/50.0%0 pts
Alt 9:11 – Toast The Star (20-1)0/50.0%0 pts
Alt 10:1 – Kristi's Spirit (12-1)0/50.0%0 pts

Race 3

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:1 – A La Vie (4-1) ⭐4/580.0%9 pts
Place:4 – Sing The Blues (10-1)3/560.0%11 pts
Show:7 – Symmetric (4-1)2/540.0%6 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:6 – Charianna (15-1)1/520.0%4 pts
Alt 2:2 – Peppermint Quill (3-1)1/520.0%3 pts
Alt 3:8 – Jackie's Lively (4-1)1/520.0%3 pts
Alt 4:9 – Eden's Charm (8-1)1/520.0%3 pts
Alt 5:5 – She's All Kristi (30-1)1/520.0%2 pts
Alt 6:3 – Turtle Creek (5-1)0/50.0%0 pts

Race 4

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:1 – The Grumpy Rabbit (1-1) ⭐4/580.0%11 pts
Place:6 – Just Singing (2-1)3/560.0%9 pts
Show:4 – My Steel Magnolia (4-1)3/560.0%9 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:2 – Mighty Nora (8-1)3/560.0%7 pts
Alt 2:5 – Fire Moon (6-1)1/520.0%4 pts
Alt 3:3 – Lady Law (8-1)1/520.0%2 pts

Race 5

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:5 – Lexi V. (5-1)5/5100.0%12 pts
Place:4 – Ironclad (2-1)3/560.0%7 pts
Show:7 – Paradise Street (4-1)2/540.0%8 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:8 – Altadena (6-1)2/540.0%7 pts
Alt 2:1 – Acquazurra (6-1)1/520.0%4 pts
Alt 3:9 – Elusive Ring (8-1)1/520.0%3 pts
Alt 4:11 – Parisinthespring (15-1)1/520.0%1 pts
Alt 5:3 – Breakout Ready (20-1)0/50.0%0 pts
Alt 6:2 – Heitzgirl (15-1)0/50.0%0 pts
Alt 7:12 – Sheer Jazz (30-1)0/50.0%0 pts
Alt 8:6 – Cazenave (15-1)0/50.0%0 pts
Alt 9:10 – Hey Flameaway (30-1)0/50.0%0 pts
Alt 10:13 – Very Valentino (20-1)0/50.0%0 pts

Race 6

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:2 – Can't Stop Willis (4-1) ⭐4/580.0%13 pts
Place:10 – Wytheville (2-1)3/560.0%12 pts
Show:5 – Jem's Hershey Kiss (20-1)3/560.0%7 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:7 – Crazy Diamond (3-1)2/540.0%6 pts
Alt 2:4 – Tegatron (15-1)1/520.0%2 pts
Alt 3:9 – Fast Jimmy (8-1)1/520.0%1 pts
Alt 4:8 – Berniedott (15-1)1/520.0%1 pts
Alt 5:6 – Four Dimes (6-1)0/50.0%0 pts
Alt 6:3 – Why Not Fly (12-1)0/50.0%0 pts
Alt 7:1 – Pick A Switch (30-1)0/50.0%0 pts

Race 7

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:3 – Doroteo (2-1) ⭐4/580.0%11 pts
Place:4 – Captain Mercury (4-1)2/540.0%7 pts
Show:1 – Colt Forty Seven (6-1)2/540.0%7 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:2 – Justifreak (3-1)2/540.0%6 pts
Alt 2:5 – Storm The Streets (10-1)2/540.0%4 pts
Alt 3:7 – Damascus Steel (6-1)1/520.0%4 pts
Alt 4:8 – Inordinary (8-1)1/520.0%2 pts
Alt 5:6 – Big Rog (30-1)1/520.0%1 pts

Race 8

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:3 – Encino (2-1) ⭐4/580.0%10 pts
Place:6 – Yinzer (2-1)3/560.0%8 pts
Show:4 – Air Recruit (4-1)2/540.0%7 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:5 – Johny's Rendezvous (4-1)2/540.0%6 pts
Alt 2:2 – Echo Lane (10-1)2/540.0%6 pts
Alt 3:1 – Neat (6-1)2/540.0%5 pts

Race 9

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:3 – Mckinzie's Glory (4-1) ⭐3/560.0%11 pts
Place:12 – Vinno Ronnie (10-1)3/560.0%10 pts
Show:4 – She's Gotta Go (8-1)3/560.0%6 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:7 – Baby Hello (6-1)2/540.0%6 pts
Alt 2:13 – Cavatelli (6-1)2/540.0%3 pts
Alt 3:6 – Mighty Risky (10-1)1/520.0%4 pts
Alt 4:1 – Click (10-1)1/520.0%2 pts
Alt 5:2 – Motown Sound (5-1)0/50.0%0 pts
Alt 6:10 – Extreme Dream (8-1)0/50.0%0 pts
Alt 7:5 – Ballybay Beauty (12-1)0/50.0%0 pts
Alt 8:15 – Ride The Broom (20-1)0/50.0%0 pts
Alt 9:11 – B D's Angel (15-1)0/50.0%0 pts
Alt 10:14 – Denise Says No (20-1)0/50.0%0 pts
Alt 11:8 – Pauline's Angel (20-1)0/50.0%0 pts
Alt 12:9 – Pinit Annie (10-1)0/50.0%0 pts

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