AI Performances Chart
AI Speed
AI Opponent
Performance Trend
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
AI Model Score History
AI Model History Guide
- Lines
- Each solid line shows this horse’s model score over its last 10 races: blue = Mod1, green = Mod2, amber = Mod3.
- Dashed Lines
- Dashed lines represent the current race’s field average for each model — a score below the dashed line indicates the horse ranked below average in this model’s assessment.
- Higher is Stronger
- All three model scores are 0–100: a higher number means the model rates this horse more favorably among the field.
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Track Bias by Lane
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Race Pace Bias
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Total Pace
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E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
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Performance vs. Peers
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
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AI Model Comparison
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
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Race Pace Simulation
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
🏁 Gate
Finish 🏁
Track Bias
◀ Closer
Speed ▶
0
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | F | C |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | F | D |
| Finish Pos | D | D |
| Dirt Speed | F | B |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | D | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | D |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | F | D |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | B | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
AI Performances Chart
AI Speed
AI Opponent
Performance Trend
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
AI Model Score History
AI Model History Guide
- Lines
- Each solid line shows this horse’s model score over its last 10 races: blue = Mod1, green = Mod2, amber = Mod3.
- Dashed Lines
- Dashed lines represent the current race’s field average for each model — a score below the dashed line indicates the horse ranked below average in this model’s assessment.
- Higher is Stronger
- All three model scores are 0–100: a higher number means the model rates this horse more favorably among the field.
Example preview — subscribe to view AI Model Score History
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Mod1(W): 82 (1/8) Mod2(W): 75 (2/8) Mod3(W): 79 (3/8) Mod1-LS: 55 (6/8) Win Prob: 18.4% Value Score: 1.35 ★
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Track Bias by Lane
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Race Pace Bias
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Total Pace
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E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
Example preview — subscribe to view E1 / E2 / LP Positions
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Performance vs. Peers
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
Example preview — subscribe to view Winning Profiles
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AI Model Comparison
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Example preview — subscribe to view AI Model Comparison
Subscribe now →
Race Pace Simulation
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
🏁 Gate
Finish 🏁
Track Bias
◀ Closer
Speed ▶
0
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Finish Pos | B | C |
| Dirt Speed | B | A |
| Turf Speed | A | A |
| Distance Speed | B | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | D | C |
| Sprint FPS | D | C |
| Route FPS | D | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
TL;DR
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Pick Pony takes pride in providing the most accurate expert picks available today. Pick Pony Expert Picks are carefully selected by our team of analysts based on analytics from our advanced Past Performance Sheets and Racing Forms. For potential longshot selections, check out Pick Pony's AI Picks.
Consensus Expert Picks
Consensus rankings based on 3 experts. Scoring: 1st pick = 4 pts, 2nd = 3 pts, 3rd = 2 pts, 4th = 1 pt. Agreement % = share of experts that included each horse.
Race 1
| Pick | Horse | Experts | Agreement | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win: | 1 – Copper Echo (3-1) | 3/3 | 100.0% | 12 pts |
| Place: | 2 – Pronti O Meno (4-1) | 2/3 | 66.7% | 5 pts |
| Show: | 4 – Speechless (2-1) | 2/3 | 66.7% | 3 pts |
Alternatives
| Pick | Horse | Experts | Agreement | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alt 1: | 6 – Double Echo (5-1) | 1/3 | 33.3% | 3 pts |
| Alt 2: | 5 – My Rapha (4-1) | 0/3 | 0.0% | 0 pts |
| Alt 3: | 3 – Marinara Sauced (12-1) | 0/3 | 0.0% | 0 pts |
Race 2
| Pick | Horse | Experts | Agreement | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win: | 6 – Drinknwiththeirish (5-1) | 2/3 | 66.7% | 7 pts |
| Place: | 2 – Flying Grace (2-1) | 1/3 | 33.3% | 4 pts |
| Show: | 5 – She'S In The Army (10-1) | 1/3 | 33.3% | 4 pts |
Alternatives
| Pick | Horse | Experts | Agreement | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alt 1: | 4 – Nasty Business (3-1) | 1/3 | 33.3% | 2 pts |
| Alt 2: | 1 – Rylee'S Way (2-1) | 0/3 | 0.0% | 0 pts |
| Alt 3: | 3 – Flaming Kitty (6-1) | 0/3 | 0.0% | 0 pts |
Race 3
| Pick | Horse | Experts | Agreement | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win: | 1 – Spirit's Mischief (6-1) | 2/3 | 66.7% | 6 pts |
| Place: | 3 – Allo Enry (3-1) | 2/3 | 66.7% | 6 pts |
| Show: | 2 – Hasty Flyer (10-1) | 1/3 | 33.3% | 4 pts |
Alternatives
| Pick | Horse | Experts | Agreement | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alt 1: | 7 – Say It Nicely (2-1) | 1/3 | 33.3% | 3 pts |
| Alt 2: | 5 – Spanish Kiss (4-1) | 1/3 | 33.3% | 3 pts |
| Alt 3: | 6 – Gambler Rocket (5-1) | 1/3 | 33.3% | 1 pts |
| Alt 4: | 4 – Stroller Boy (8-1) | 0/3 | 0.0% | 0 pts |
Race 4
| Pick | Horse | Experts | Agreement | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win: | 4 – Lady Trexia (1-1) | 2/3 | 66.7% | 8 pts |
| Place: | 1 – Anchored In Love (3-1) | 2/3 | 66.7% | 6 pts |
| Show: | 2 – Lady Captain (5-1) | 2/3 | 66.7% | 5 pts |
Alternatives
| Pick | Horse | Experts | Agreement | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alt 1: | 6 – Timeforwhat (4-1) | 1/3 | 33.3% | 2 pts |
| Alt 2: | 5 – Glengloria (6-1) | 1/3 | 33.3% | 2 pts |
| Alt 3: | 3 – Iso Lucky (8-1) | 0/3 | 0.0% | 0 pts |
Race 5
| Pick | Horse | Experts | Agreement | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win: | 7 – Woodson (2-1) | 3/3 | 100.0% | 9 pts |
| Place: | 5 – Keepinitreal (4-1) | 2/3 | 66.7% | 8 pts |
| Show: | 2 – Burns (4-1) | 2/3 | 66.7% | 5 pts |
Alternatives
| Pick | Horse | Experts | Agreement | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alt 1: | 4 – Out Flat (5-1) | 1/3 | 33.3% | 1 pts |
| Alt 2: | 6 – Uncle Tater (12-1) | 0/3 | 0.0% | 0 pts |
| Alt 3: | 1 – Phantom Express (6-1) | 0/3 | 0.0% | 0 pts |
| Alt 4: | 3 – Come On Coop (8-1) | 0/3 | 0.0% | 0 pts |
Race 6
| Pick | Horse | Experts | Agreement | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win: | 3 – Sexagenarian (2-1) | 3/3 | 100.0% | 12 pts |
| Place: | 2 – Rockin His Sox Off (2-1) | 1/3 | 33.3% | 3 pts |
| Show: | 4 – Woodspoint (10-1) | 1/3 | 33.3% | 3 pts |
Alternatives
| Pick | Horse | Experts | Agreement | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alt 1: | 1 – Strollsmischief (3-1) | 1/3 | 33.3% | 2 pts |
| Alt 2: | 5 – Cactus League (6-1) | 1/3 | 33.3% | 2 pts |
| Alt 3: | 6 – Nyquist Frequency (5-1) | 1/3 | 33.3% | 1 pts |
Race 7
| Pick | Horse | Experts | Agreement | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win: | 6 – Post Haste (5-1) | 1/3 | 33.3% | 4 pts |
| Place: | 4 – Moving Munny (4-1) | 1/3 | 33.3% | 4 pts |
| Show: | 9 – Wicked Hot Foot (15-1) | 1/3 | 33.3% | 4 pts |
Alternatives
| Pick | Horse | Experts | Agreement | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alt 1: | 7 – Crimson Tapestry (3-1) | 1/3 | 33.3% | 3 pts |
| Alt 2: | 1 – Our Lockets Rocket (6-1) | 1/3 | 33.3% | 3 pts |
| Alt 3: | 5 – Lil Friend (10-1) | 1/3 | 33.3% | 2 pts |
| Alt 4: | 2 – Enticing Kitty (4-1) | 1/3 | 33.3% | 2 pts |
| Alt 5: | 3 – Krazy Like Beth (8-1) | 1/3 | 33.3% | 1 pts |
| Alt 6: | 8 – E. L.'S Legacy (12-1) | 0/3 | 0.0% | 0 pts |
Mod1(W): 82 (1/8) Mod2(W): 75 (2/8) Mod3(W): 79 (3/8) Mod1-LS: 55 (6/8) Win Prob: 18.4% Value Score: 1.35 ★