Pick Pony Tip Sheet – Expert picks for Tampa Bay Downs, December 27, 2025.


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Pick Pony takes pride in providing the most accurate expert picks available today. Pick Pony Expert Picks are carefully selected by our team of analysts based on analytics from our advanced Past Performance Sheets and Racing Forms. For potential longshot selections, check out Pick Pony's AI Picks.

Race 1 Maiden Claiming 7 Furlongs Dirt

Win: Jenn Sweet Jenn (1) – 67% Confidence
Place: It's Just A Game (7) – 60% Confidence
Show: Spun To Purfection (8) – 55% Confidence
Alternative: Princess Honor (2) – 45% Confidence

The analyst notes that JENN SWEET JENN is drawn perfectly and has placed five times at this track, making her a genuine contender. Analysts also highlight that SPUN TO PURFECTION narrowly missed last time out and IT'S JUST A GAME has shown promise in higher grades despite a layoff.

Race 2 Claiming 1 Mile 40 Yards Dirt

Win: King Freud (4) – 65% Confidence
Place: Stone Cold Flex (5) – 60% Confidence
Show: Vino Couragio (6) – 40% Confidence
Alternative: Candy Street (8) – 40% Confidence

Analysts point out that KING FREUD looks well-placed to build on a strong runner-up effort in his last start. STONE COLD FLEX is seen as a consistent threat at this level, while VINO COURAGIO brings strong form with two wins from recent attempts.

Race 3 Claiming 6 Furlongs Dirt

Win: Auger (8) – 50% Confidence
Place: Osprey (6) – 50% Confidence
Show: Float On (3) – 50% Confidence
Alternative: Star Kanoo (2) – 30% Confidence

This race appears competitive, with analysts split. AUGER has very strong form at Tampa Bay Downs. FLOAT ON is respected for strong recent form, including a good second place over this course and distance. OSPREY ran fourth last start but is considered a solid claim with back-class.

Race 4 Claiming 7 Furlongs Dirt

Win: Meet Me In The Air (1) – 95% Confidence
Place: Oops Haha (10) – 75% Confidence
Show: Early Delivery (5) – 40% Confidence
Alternative: Padrino's Gold (9) – 30% Confidence

There is high agreement on MEET ME IN THE AIR, who is drawn on the rails and considered a genuine contender despite a below-par run last time. OOPS HAHA is praised for consistency and expected to go close.

Race 5 Starter Handicap 1 Mile Turf

Win: Crafty Collector (6) – 70% Confidence
Place: Dynamic Actress (2) – 65% Confidence
Show: Alcohol (9) – 45% Confidence
Alternative: Mobay Princess (3) – 20% Confidence

Analysts favor CRAFTY COLLECTOR to follow up on recent success, noting a previous win at long odds. DYNAMIC ACTRESS is the main danger, having won her last start at this track when fresh.

Race 6 Claiming 1 Mile 40 Yards Dirt

Win: Jades Jay (2) – 85% Confidence
Place: The Best Distance (5) – 60% Confidence
Show: Passioned (7) – 40% Confidence
Alternative: Mission Mike (1) – 35% Confidence

JADES JAY is a strong consensus pick, having just missed last start and finishing a length back. THE BEST DISTANCE is also in strong form with four wins from recent attempts and must be respected.

Race 7 Starter Handicap 1 Mile Turf

Win: Eldest Son (1) – 75% Confidence
Place: Royal Luck (5) – 65% Confidence
Show: Peruvian Lucky (4) – 45% Confidence
Alternative: Old Flag (3) – 20% Confidence

ELDEST SON is widely tipped to bounce back from a recent third in a higher grade. ROYAL LUCK is seen as a consistent threat after just missing as the favorite in his last start.

Race 8 Starter Optional Claiming 6 Furlongs Dirt

Win: Secret Empire (10) – 50% Confidence
Place: Mor Spring Spirit (3) – 50% Confidence
Show: Mr. Penny Pincher (9) – 45% Confidence
Alternative: In Sky We Trust (7) – 30% Confidence

Opinions are split between SECRET EMPIRE, who has won three times at this track, and MOR SPRING SPIRIT. MR. PENNY PINCHER is considered a sneaky chance capable of chasing the leaders home.

Race 9 Maiden Special Weight 1 1/16 Miles Turf

Win: Perm (3) – 85% Confidence
Place: Abigail (11) – 55% Confidence
Show: Mary Lois (1) – 45% Confidence
Alternative: Bless Her (9) – 35% Confidence

PERM steps down in class after a solid effort in tougher company and is the clear favorite among analysts. ABIGAIL and MARY LOIS are both respected newcomers or lightly raced horses with upside.

Recommended Exotic Plays by Race

Race 1: Analysts suggest a Trifecta Box including Jenn Sweet Jenn (1)It's Just A Game (7), and Spun To Purfection (8). The presence of Princess Honor (2) as a strong show contender suggests she could be used to fill out the bottom of Superfecta tickets.

Race 2: An Exacta Box of King Freud (4) and Stone Cold Flex (5) is highly recommended given their strong consensus for the top two spots. Performance Plus (7) is a viable option to include in Trifectas as a value add.

Race 4: Meet Me In The Air (1) is a standout “single” for horizontal wagers (Pick 3/Pick 4). A straight Exacta 1-10 (MEET ME IN THE AIR over OOPS HAHA) is supported by the data.

Race 6: Jades Jay (2) is another potential key horse. Analysts recommend keying JADES JAY over The Best Distance (5) and Passioned (7) in Exactas.

Race 9: A Trifecta Key with Perm (3) on top of Abigail (11) and Mary Lois (1) appears to be the logical play given the strong agreement on the winner but variance in the minor placings.


Value Play Observations

Race 1: It's Just A Game (7) is listed as an “alternative” or secondary pick by some but a top pick by others; returning from a layoff, this horse could offer better odds than the favorite.

Race 3: Star Kanoo (2) is mentioned as a horse that can build on recent efforts and “chase home the selection,” potentially offering value underneath in exotics.

Race 5: Alcohol (9) is consistently hitting the board in predictions but rarely on top, making this horse a solid candidate for Show betting or the bottom of Trifectas at a likely decent price.

Race 8: Mr. Penny Pincher (9) is described as having a “sneaky chance” and could upset the top two favorites if the race pace breaks down.

Race 9: Bless Her (9) showed promise on debut and is largely overlooked for the win, presenting a potential value play for the place or show pools.

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