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Pick Pony Tip Sheet – Expert picks for Turfway Park, December 26, 2025.

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Race 1 – Maiden Special Weight – 6 Furlongs – All Weather – $48,000

Win: Nanzig (6) – 63%
Place: By La Rina (3) – 50%
Show: Bresha (5) – 38%

Multiple analysts favor Nanzig (6) returning from an eight-week spell. The filly has shown flashes of talent in previous starts and drops in class for this assignment. By La Rina (3) offers solid value as a second choice, having finished fifth in her most recent outing at Churchill Downs under Michael Tomlinson. Bresha (5) debuts for Wayne Catalano and Gabriel Saez, a combination that commands respect at first asking.

Race 2 – Claiming – 6 Furlongs – All Weather – $30,800

Win: One Timer (10) – 63%
Place: Zoombie (2) – 50%
Show: Happy Cat (4) – 38%

One Timer (10) has been favored in two of three career starts and already has one placing from this preparation at Hawthorne. The Larry Rivelli trainee draws well in post 10. Zoombie (2) seeks a third consecutive victory after winning at both Turfway Park and Hawthorne. The Gary House runner possesses strong momentum. Happy Cat (4) returns from an eight-week layoff but has proven competitive at this claiming level previously.

Race 3 – Claiming – 1 Mile – All Weather – $42,300

Win: Sbagliato (1) – 63%
Place: Final Denile (10) – 63%
Show: King Curlin (5) – 50%

This race features two strong co-favorites in the consensus. Sbagliato (1) stretches out to one mile after competing primarily at sprint distances. The Peter Miller trainee draws the rail, which can be advantageous on the Turfway synthetic surface. Final Denile (10) won his most recent start at Turfway Park by two lengths and returns on relatively short rest. King Curlin (5) has placed in stakes company and drops into this claiming race for Brittany Vanden Berg.

Race 4 – Claiming – 1 Mile – All Weather – $39,600

Win: Yellow Brick (1) – 63%
Place: Mission Improbable (9) – 38%
Show: Homie (11) – 38%

Yellow Brick (1) finished third in his last outing at Churchill Downs, beaten just four lengths while racing in tougher company. The Matt Shirer runner draws the advantageous rail position. Mission Improbable (9) represents the powerful Rodolphe Brisset barn and has shown steady form throughout this campaign. Homie (11) boasts impressive statistics with four wins from seven career starts, representing strong value at this level for Larry Rivelli.

Race 5 – Maiden Special Weight – 6 1/2 Furlongs – All Weather – $100,000

Win: Mendels Mate (7) – 63%
Place: Fort Griffin (6) – 38%
Show: Winter Holiday (11) – 38%

Mendels Mate (7) ran fourth in his career debut at Churchill Downs and represents the powerful Joe Sharp stable. The colt should benefit from that initial experience. Fort Griffin (6) returns from a nine-week break after finishing second at Belmont at the Big A for Michael Maker. The added distance should suit this runner's style. Winter Holiday (11) makes his career debut for Eoin Harty, a trainer with a solid record with first-time starters.

Race 6 – Allowance Optional Claiming – 1 1/16 Miles – All Weather – $106,000

Win: Mccullough (6) – 75%
Place: Smokey Mandate (7) – 50%
Show: Tapit Shoes (4) – 50%

Mccullough (6) returns from a layoff and won on debut this preparation for Brittany Russell. The runner has demonstrated ability at this distance previously. Smokey Mandate (7) comes back from a six-week freshening after running fifth at Churchill Downs when last seen. Michael Maker conditions this contender. Tapit Shoes (4) finished fourth in the Boone County Stakes last time out, showing he belongs at this level despite the defeat.

Race 7 – Claiming – 6 Furlongs – All Weather – $39,600

Win: Ariri (3) – 50%
Place: Mindy's Union (6) – 50%
Show: Atlantic Passage (8) – 38%

This race presents a difficult handicapping puzzle with no clear standout. Ariri (3) drops in class after facing tougher opposition in recent outings. The Daniel Leitch trainee has tactical speed to secure position early. Mindy's Union (6) finished third at Churchill Downs last time and returns to lower-level company. Genaro Garcia conditions this mare. Atlantic Passage (8) won once during this campaign at Horseshoe Indianapolis five starts back for Rodolphe Brisset, who merits respect.

Race 8 – Allowance – 1 Mile – All Weather – $101,000

Win: Low Key In Love (4) – 75%
Place: Modern Sound (3) – 63%
Show: Crazy Cami (10) – 50%

Low Key In Love (4) was favored and placed at Churchill Downs when fresh for Brendan Walsh. The runner shows strong form and tactical speed that suits Turfway's racing surface. Modern Sound (3) returns from a seven-week layoff after finishing third at Churchill Downs. Michael Maker sends out this filly, who has raced in tougher allowance company. Crazy Cami (10) also represents the Maker barn and finished third at Churchill Downs while dropping back to this level.

Race 9 – Claiming – 1 Mile – All Weather – $38,400

Win: Spoils Of War (7) – 75%
Place: Crickenberger (11) – 63%
Show: Enticing Sunset (2) – 63%

Spoils Of War (7) has won four consecutive races, including his most recent victory at Turfway Park. Horacio De Paz conditions this runner, who has been favored in all winning efforts. Crickenberger (11) just scored at Turfway Park and possesses strong course-and-distance credentials. Eric Foster trains this gelding who clearly thrives on the synthetic surface. Enticing Sunset (2) returns from a 10-week break after winning at Horseshoe Indianapolis. The mare faces winners for the first time in this spot.

Race 10 – Maiden Claiming – 1 Mile – All Weather – $39,600

Win: Nyquistador (12) – 38%
Place: Mo Town Jazz (2) – 38%
Show: Buddy Mac (4) – 25%

This wide-open maiden claiming event lacks any horse with overwhelming support. Nyquistador (12) returns from a nine-week layoff after finishing 10 lengths behind at Belmont at the Big A when fresh. The Robert Medina trainee stretches out to one mile. Mo Town Jazz (2) has placed twice from six starts this preparation and was second as an outsider at Churchill Downs last time. Buddy Mac (4) makes his career debut but draws support from a well-regarded stable.

Recommended Exotic Plays by Race

Race 1

Exacta Box: 6-3 ($4 for $2 base)
Trifecta: 6,3 with 6,3,5 with 6,3,5,14 ($12 for $1 base)

The race shape suggests Nanzig (6) and By La Rina (3) should dominate the finish. Adding Bresha (5) and South Philly Slide (14) underneath provides coverage of the first-time starters and shippers who could factor.

Race 2

Exacta: 10 with 2,4,13 ($6 for $2 base)
Daily Double (Race 2-3): 10,2 with 1,10,5 ($12 for $2 base)

One Timer (10) appears most likely to win, so key that runner over the three main threats. The Daily Double connecting to Race 3's top contenders offers strong value potential.

Race 3

Trifecta: 1,10 with 1,10,5,7 with 1,5,7,10 ($24 for $1 base)
Pick 3 (Race 3-4-5): 1,10 with 1,9 with 7,6,11 ($12 for $1 base)

The class relief for several runners creates uncertainty. Using the top four in trifecta combinations while focusing the Pick 3 on stronger opinions in races 4 and 5 provides balance.

Race 4

Exacta: 1 with 9,11,8 ($6 for $2 base)

Yellow Brick (1) holds a clear edge based on recent form and class. Spreading underneath to Mission Improbable (9), Homie (11), and Askari (8) captures the logical threats.

Race 5

Win: Mendels Mate (7) ($20 to win)
Exacta Box: 7-6-11 ($12 for $2 base)

This maiden special weight at the $100,000 level features quality runners. Betting Mendels Mate (7) to win while boxing the top three choices in exactas provides solid coverage.

Race 6

Exacta: 6 with 7,4,1 ($6 for $2 base)
Trifecta: 6 with 7,4 with 1,3,7,4 ($12 for $1 base)

Mccullough (6) received 75% support from analysts. Keying this runner over the main threats while spreading deeper underneath in trifectas captures value if the favorite delivers.

Race 7

Exacta Box: 3-6-8 ($12 for $2 base)
Superfecta: 3,6,8 with 3,6,8 with 3,6,8,2,9 with 2,9,10,13 ($60 for $1 base)

The wide-open nature of this claiming sprint requires broader coverage. Boxing the top three while extending coverage in superfectas could produce a sizable return.

Race 8

Win/Place: Low Key In Love (4) ($30 win, $20 place)
Exacta: 4 with 3,10,8 ($6 for $2 base)

The overwhelming consensus support for Low Key In Love (4) justifies aggressive win and place wagers while using the runner as a single in exactas over the logical dangers.

Race 9

Pick 3 (Race 9-10): 7,11 with 2,4,12,13 ($8 for $1 base)
Exacta: 7 with 11,2 ($4 for $2 base)

Spoils Of War (7) on a four-race winning streak deserves strong support. Pairing with Crickenberger (11) who also won recently at the track creates a powerful exacta. The Pick 3 into Race 10's uncertainty provides tournament-style leverage.

Race 10

Exacta Box: 12-2-4 ($12 for $2 base)
Trifecta: 12,2 with 12,2,4,13 with ALL ($24 for $1 base)

Maiden claiming races at one mile frequently produce longshot surprises. Boxing the top consensus choices while spreading all runners underneath in trifectas captures value in an unpredictable finale.

Value Play Observations

Race 1: Bresha (5) – Makes debut for the Catalano/Saez combination. First-time starters from this barn show 18% win rate and 42% in-the-money percentage. At projected odds of 12-1, this represents significant overlay potential if the filly shows any early speed.

Race 3: King Curlin (5) – Drops from stakes company into a claiming race. The Brittany Vanden Berg trainee finished third in a Grade 3 event at Woodbine. This class relief with a quality rider like Julio Felix suggests the gelding could dominate at this level.

Race 4: Homie (11) – Boasts four wins from seven lifetime starts (57% win rate). The three-pound apprentice weight allowance from Walter Rodriguez provides a tangible advantage. Larry Rivelli-trained runners at Turfway Park in similar claiming races show 25% win rate.

Race 7: Ariri (3) – Significant class drop after competing in tougher European-style turf races. The GB-bred mare for Daniel Leitch has tactical speed and draws a favorable outside post. Should offer value at projected 3-1 odds given the wide-open race shape.

Race 9: Crickenberger (11) – Coming off a victory at Turfway Park and has won at this track four times previously. Eric Foster's gelding has shown particular affinity for the synthetic surface. At estimated 3-1 odds, represents strong win and place value as a course specialist against SPOILS OF WAR who will likely be heavily favored.

Race 10: In The Dark (13) – Finished second two runs back and now drops to maiden claiming level. The class relief combined with improving Beyer Speed Figures suggests progression. At projected 4-1 odds in a wide-open maiden claimer, this represents the best value proposition in the finale.

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