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Race 1 – Maiden Special Weight – 1105Y – Dirt – 1:05 PM
Win: Remix (1) – 43% confidence🥉
Place: Big Stetson (2) – 60% confidence
Show: Smoothwhskygoindwn (4) – 80% confidence🥈
Alternative: Roman Eagle (5) – 29% confidence
Notes: Pick Pony analysts see a strong three-way separation between Remix, Big Stetson, and Smoothwhskygoindwn, with Remix the slight edge in overall top picks and Smoothwhskygoindwn almost universally used somewhere in the top three. Roman Eagle is more of a depth play but still appears enough to land the alternative slot.
Race 2 – Maiden Special Weight – 1214Y – Dirt – Purse: $45,000 – 1:32 PM
Win: Side Stage Jessica (4) – 43% confidence🥉
Place: Miss Madame (5) – 80% confidence
Show: Lucinda Who (2) – 40% confidence🥈
Alternative: Mojo Promise (6) – 71% confidence🥇
Notes: Side Stage Jessica edges a very tight group for the win call, but Miss Madame is essentially a consensus “must use” in the exacta. Mojo Promise rates as a high-confidence alternative given repeated support as a top-2 choice despite a poor debut margin. Lucinda Who is a mild consensus for third, with upside on typical second-out improvement.
Race 3 – Allowance – 1323Y – Dirt – Purse: $50,000 – 1:59 PM WIN
Win: Axton (1) – 100% confidence🥇
Place: Crockett (2) – 40% confidence
Show: Chaperone (4) – 40% confidence
Alternative: Major Tom (3) – 43% confidence
Notes: Axton is a near-unanimous single for Pick Pony analysts, making this the most reliable win favorite on the card by consensus. Crockett and Chaperone are essentially co-equal for the underneath roles, and Major Tom offers a similar level of analyst support but often at a better projected price, creating a nice value axis for trifectas and supers.
Race 4 – Zia Park Sprint Stakes – 1323Y – Dirt – Purse: $100,000 – 2:26 PM WIN
Win: Usually Wrong (5) – 57% confidence🥇
Place: Neiman (3) – 60% confidence
Show: Rexford (2) – 60% confidence🥉
Alternative: Ryvit (1) – 71% confidence🥈
Notes: Usually Wrong is the slight consensus on top, but the spread among the main four shows a deep, competitive sprint. Neiman and Rexford are logical inside and mid-pack stalkers repeatedly used for place/show, while Ryvit brings pace and is strongly supported as the next horse in line. Pick Pony analysts view this as a race where spread tickets in exotics could produce good returns even with the favorite on top.
Race 5 – Zia Park Juvenile Stakes – 1323Y – Dirt – Purse: $100,000 – 2:53 PM
Win: Fuel (2) – 43% confidence
Place: Truly Unbelievable (6) – 60% confidence
Show: Expo City (3) – 40% confidence
Alternative: The Hell We Did (8) – 43% confidence🥈
Notes: Fuel and Truly Unbelievable dominate the conversation, with Fuel having slightly more outright win votes and Truly Unbelievable heavily backed as the exacta partner. Expo City is a steady underneath horse used mostly in show slots. The Hell We Did repeatedly appears in value-driven top-3 sets and earns the alternative nod as the most-mentioned upset candidate.
Race 6 – Zia Park Princess Stakes – 1323Y – Dirt – Purse: $100,000 – 3:20 PM WIN + TRIFECTA
Win: Whiskey High (2) – 43% confidencePlace: Wakuda (3) – 60% confidence🥇
Show: In The Aggregate (1) – 40% confidence🥈
Alternative: Mother Of Pearl (6) – 71% confidence🥉
Notes: Although some analysts still prefer Mother Of Pearl as the main top pick, when all opinions are aggregated, Whiskey High narrowly emerges as the consensus win selection because of repeated win endorsements, especially from sources emphasizing stakes form. Wakuda has strong support for the place role. In The Aggregate offers some price appeal underneath, while Mother Of Pearl’s heavy presence across win/place/show lines justifies a very high alternative confidence and inclusion on any serious tickets.
Race 7 – Zia Park Distaff Stakes – 1323Y – Dirt – Purse: $100,000 – 3:47 PM
Win: Thermal (5) – 71% confidencePlace: Sayucan (1) – 60% confidence
Show: No Bad Beats (7) – 40% confidence
Alternative: Lookinforbargains (9) – 29% confidence🥇
Notes: Thermal is one of the strongest consensus choices of the day and a key anchor for multi-race wagers. Sayucan is a widely supported alternative for the exacta. No Bad Beats and Lookinforbargains are both respected by several analysts; No Bad Beats gets the slight nod for show, while Lookinforbargains, despite fewer overall votes, has been singled out as a dangerous form horse at the track, warranting alternative status.
Race 8 – Zia Park Championship Stakes – 8F 110Y – Dirt – Purse: $100,000 – 4:14 PM WIN + EXACTA
Win: Heroic Move (10) – 62% confidence🥇
Place: Ze’bul (5) – 40% confidence🥈Show: C W Prize (7) – 40% confidenceAlternative: Bearings (1) – 25% confidence
Notes: Heroic Move is clearly the consensus win pick among Pick Pony analysts and is widely viewed as the most likely winner. Ze’bul and C W Prize are popular underneath, each repeatedly cited for their recent Remington Park form and distance suitability. Bearings surfaces in both computer-generated and human-driven lists as a live value horse who can upset exacta/trifecta combinations if the pace melts or the favorite regresses slightly.
Race 9 – Zia Park Oaks – 8F 110Y – Dirt – Purse: $300,000 – 4:41 PM
Win: Kanojo (5) – 62% confidencePlace: Dontgiveupthefight (3) – 60% confidence🥉
Show: Fugitive Star (7) – 40% confidence
Alternative: Seraphia (2) – 50% confidence🥈
Notes: Kanojo stands out as a strong consensus winner based on an unbeaten stretch and dominant optics in her recent stakes win. Dontgiveupthefight and Fugitive Star are both widely respected as second-tier fillies, with analysts often placing them in the 2–3 slots on class and upside. Seraphia carries significant support from analysts who favor tougher previous competition, making her a high-confidence alternative and a key include on value exacta and trifecta tickets.
Race 10 – Zia Park Derby – 8F 110Y – Dirt – Purse: $300,000 – 5:08 PM
Win: Amorosa (5) – 43% confidence
Place: Zero Sugar (2) – 40% confidence🥈
Show: Mckinzie Street (8) – 40% confidence
Alternative: Brotha Keny (3) – 43% confidence🥇
Notes: This Derby is one of the deepest betting races. Amorosa has the slight consensus edge for the win, but Brotha Keny’s graded-stakes background and top morning line make him a powerful alternative, especially with several analysts putting him first or second. Zero Sugar and Mckinzie Street are repeatedly placed in the 2–3 slots and figure prominently for value in exactas and trifectas. Mister Omaha and Remember Big Jim also show up often, so excluding them entirely would be aggressive.
Exotic Bets and Value Plays (from the perspective of Pick Pony analysts)
Race 1
Pick Pony analysts see Race 1 as a classic three-horse core with a couple of price boosters. The preferred exotic structure is to key Remix and Smoothwhskygoindwn on top of Big Stetson and then spread to Roman Eagle and Man Of Mischief underneath in trifectas and supers. This race sets up well for a cold exacta or a narrow trifecta if the track is favoring on-pace types.
Race 2
With Side Stage Jessica, Miss Madame, Lucinda Who, and Mojo Promise so heavily featured, Pick Pony analysts recommend focusing exactas and trifectas around the 4–5–2–6 combination. A common configuration is 4–5 over 2–4–5–6 over 2–4–5–6, adding North Lake Kate only if looking for a sharp superfecta payoff. The strong consensus on Miss Madame as an underneath horse makes her a near-mandatory inclusion in verticals.
Race 3
Axton’s dominance makes this a natural single in early multi-race sequences. For intra-race exotics, Pick Pony analysts favor exactas keyed with Axton over Crockett and Chaperone, then fold in Major Tom and Stonehenge in trifecta third and fourth positions. A structure like 1 over 2–4 over 2–3–4–6 is consistent with the consensus while still capturing potential value.
Race 4
The sprint stakes shapes up as a spread race in exotics but with a fairly tight core. Recommended structures key Usually Wrong over Neiman, Rexford, and Ryvit, but some analysts reverse that exacta where price justifies it. A practical approach is 5 over 1–2–3 over 1–2–3–5, and a secondary ticket reversing 3 and 5 for value. This is also a good leg to press a 3–5 exacta if the board holds.
Race 5
Fuel and Truly Unbelievable form an obvious exacta focus for Pick Pony analysts. The preferred betting approach is two-pronged: a saver on 6–2 in the exacta and a more heavily weighted 2–6, with trifectas bringing in Expo City, The Hell We Did, and Stretch. Analysts view The Hell We Did in particular as a key value horse for third, especially if pace pressure develops between the top pair.
Race 6
In the Princess, Pick Pony analysts regard this as a highly formful yet potentially price-friendly race. Whiskey High and Mother Of Pearl are the main win-oriented horses, with Wakuda close behind. A recommended exotic strategy is to box 2–3–6 in exactas while leaning on 2 and 6 in multi-race legs. In The Aggregate and Sugaree are good fourth spot types, especially in larger superfecta tickets.
Race 7
Thermal is a standout key in many Pick Pony exotic constructions. Analysts suggest leaning strongly on Thermal in the win slot, with Sayucan and Banterra as main exacta partners and No Bad Beats and Lookinforbargains filling out deeper verticals. A strong opinion is to play 5 over 1–6–7–9 in trifectas and supers, using 1 and 6 especially heavily in the second slot.
Race 8
Heroic Move is widely viewed as a logical single or primary key, but this race also offers several interesting price plays. Pick Pony analysts prefer exactas keying 10 over 1–5–7–11, with Ze’bul and C W Prize as primary underneath horses and Bearings and Woodcourt as more speculative options. For trifectas, a structure like 10 over 1–5–7–11 over 1–5–7–9–11–12 captures most of the consensus plus a couple of price horses.
Race 9
The Oaks is a race where Pick Pony analysts are comfortable anchoring multi-race bets with Kanojo but still want coverage underneath. Exactas such as 5 over 2–3–7 provide a good balance of chalk and value. Seraphia is considered a premium value key in the second and third slots because of her class lines, and exacta boxes 2–5 or 3–5 help protect against small upsets. Rosato and Going Deep can be sprinkled into trifecta and superfecta tickets as potential price enhancers.
Race 10
In the Derby, the consensus leans toward a three-way axis of Amorosa, Mister Omaha, and Brotha Keny, with Zero Sugar, Mckinzie Street, and Remember Big Jim as key supporting parts. Pick Pony analysts advise avoiding a narrow stance here: instead, build trifectas like 3–5–7 over 2–3–4–5–7–8 over 2–3–4–5–7–8, and consider pressing 5–3–7 and 5–7–3 combinations where the expected prices justify it. Because multiple analysts insist on Brotha Keny’s class and Mister Omaha’s local form, allowing one of them to beat Amorosa is a prudent hedge in verticals and late multi-race wagers.
