What a week it was for Pick Pony's AI Picks system! Across all four algorithms — Algo1, Algo2, Algo3, and Tri Chaos — our models analyzed 757 races and delivered consistently impressive results. With a significant number of races still pending settlement (roughly 111–206 per algorithm, so the final numbers could climb even higher), the settled results already tell a fantastic story. Algo3 led the charge among the core algorithms with a 30.2% win rate and a remarkable 64.1% ITM (in-the-money) rate on 579 settled races, meaning nearly two out of every three top picks hit the board. Algo1 and Algo2 were right there alongside it, posting ITM rates of 62.2% and 63.4% respectively. Tri Chaos, running on a slightly different settlement timeline with 206 races still pending, still managed a stellar 63.4% ITM rate on its settled picks — and Sunday's results alone showed it firing on all cylinders. Across the board, this is the kind of week that reminds you why data-driven handicapping matters.
Standout Wins
The longshot department was absolutely on fire this week, and these are the wins that make you glad you trusted the algorithm. PARTY QUEEN (15-1 ML) — nailed by both Algo2 and Algo3 on July 19 at MNR — was the week's biggest-odds top-pick winner, a genuine needle-in-a-haystack find that the models identified with confidence. Close behind were ARMY RUNNING BAYOU (12-1 ML) at EVD on July 18, called correctly by all three core algorithms, and SHIRL'S SOUL TOWN (12-1 ML) at Saratoga on July 17 — a marquee track win that really stands out. Algo1 had its own magic moment with JUJUBEE (8-1 ML) at BTP on July 19 and the eye-catching GO FER (10-1 ML) at GPR on July 18. On the Tri Chaos side, Sunday was a sweep fest — TYLER'S TURN, CLEARLY COLOSSAL, LIL RED BEAUDETTE, GENERAL MATHIS, SCOOT ALONG, TIERGARTEN, TURF CAT, and THESE APPLES all crossed the wire first on July 20, a dominant eight-win day across LAD, MNR, and PID. The exotic ticket results were equally exciting, with Algo1 alone connecting on 44 exactas, 43 boxed trifectas, and 9 straight trifectas — real bankroll-building numbers for players following multi-leg wagers.
Key Insights
A few clear patterns emerged from this week's data. First, the AI's edge in identifying overlays was on full display — horses like PARTY QUEEN, ARMY RUNNING BAYOU, and SHIRL'S SOUL TOWN were dismissed by the morning line but flagged by our models, a recurring theme that underscores how the system finds value the public underestimates. Second, multi-algorithm agreement proved to be a powerful signal: when Algo2 and Algo3 aligned on the same top pick — as they did on PARTY QUEEN, CHARLIE FOXTROT, NEXT TRICK, IBRIM, BOSS LIKE BETH, and ISLAND CHARM — those horses won at an exceptional clip. That kind of cross-model consensus is worth watching closely when building your ticket. Finally, Tri Chaos demonstrated strong form at MNR and LAD on July 20, going a combined six-for-six at those two tracks on Sunday alone, suggesting the model had an excellent read on surface and pace conditions at those venues. It's also worth noting that with over 100 races still pending settlement across the core algorithms, this week's final numbers have real room to grow even more impressive.
Looking Ahead
The picks are rolling, the algorithms are sharp, and with a pile of pending races still to settle, this week's final tally could look even better than it already does — stay tuned! Keep an eye on multi-algorithm consensus picks and any overlays flagged at 8-1 or higher; if this past week is any indication, that's where Pick Pony's AI is delivering its biggest edge. Let's ride! 🐎
Weekly Performance Summary
Algorithm Algo1 Winner
Pick Pony's AI Winner models rank every horse in each race using a weighted combination of speed figures, pace analysis, trainer/jockey statistics, track bias, and dozens of other handicapping factors. Each algorithm uses a different set of optimized weights to capture different angles on the same race data. Top Pick Wins measures how often the model's #1 ranked horse won the race outright. Places and Shows count 2nd and 3rd place finishes respectively. ITM (In The Money) is the combined total of Win + Place + Show. Rates are calculated against settled races only (pending results excluded). The Exotic Wager Hits table shows how often the model's top 3 picks finished in the correct order (Exacta/Trifecta) or in any order within the top positions (Boxed Exacta/Boxed Trifecta).
Metric
Count
Rate
Total Races
757
Top Pick Wins (1st)
170
29.7%
Top Pick Places (2nd)
118
20.6%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)
71
12.4%
Top Pick ITM
359
62.7%
Pending
111
Exotic Wager Hits (Algorithm Algo1 Winner)
Wager Type
Hits
Description
Exacta
44
Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta
39
Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta
9
Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta
9
Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta
52
Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order
Algorithm Algo3 Winner
Metric
Count
Rate
Total Races
757
Top Pick Wins (1st)
173
30.7%
Top Pick Places (2nd)
105
18.6%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)
89
15.8%
Top Pick ITM
367
65.1%
Pending
111
Exotic Wager Hits (Algorithm Algo3 Winner)
Wager Type
Hits
Description
Exacta
40
Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta
31
Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta
9
Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta
49
Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order
Tri Chaos Winner
Metric
Count
Rate
Total Races
757
Top Pick Wins (1st)
148
29.8%
Top Pick Places (2nd)
90
18.1%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)
77
15.5%
Top Pick ITM
315
63.4%
Pending
206
Exotic Wager Hits (Tri Chaos Winner)
Wager Type
Hits
Description
Exacta
0
Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta
0
Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta
0
Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta
0
Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order
Algorithm Algo1 Longshot
Longshot picks isolate races where the AI's top-ranked horse had morning-line odds of 8-1 or greater — horses the betting public considers unlikely to win. These are higher-risk, higher-reward selections where the model identified an edge that the public odds did not reflect. Because longshots win far less frequently by definition (typically 10-15% of races), win rates in this section are expected to be substantially lower than the winner models above. That is normal and by design — even a modest longshot win rate of 5-10% can be highly profitable because the payoffs are dramatically larger. A $2 win bet on an 8-1 longshot returns $18. Focus on ITM rate and exotic hits rather than raw win percentage when evaluating longshot model performance. The same Win/Place/Show/ITM and Exotic metrics apply as described above.
Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta
0
Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta
0
Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order
Trifecta Structure Plays
Each AI Predictions post suggests one trifecta structure per race: the Algo 3 top pick to win, with its next three ranked horses boxed for 2nd and 3rd (6 combinations). Races our race-shape model rates most favorable are tagged ⭐ Best Bet in the post. This table grades last week's published plays against the actual trifecta payoffs at each track's real wager minimum — no assumptions, no hindsight.
Plays graded
328
Trifectas hit
36 (11.0%)
Total staked
$1,309.20
Total returned
$861.08
Profit / loss
−$448.12 (-34.2% ROI)
⭐ Best Bet races only
25 plays, 5 hit (20.0%), −$77.20 (-55.5% ROI)
412 race(s) skipped for scratches inside the top four; 17 skipped where the track's trifecta minimum wasn't recorded. Per-race wager minimums have been captured since July 4, 2026, so this ledger grows more complete each week.
Consensus Expert Picks
Consensus Expert Picks are derived from multiple independent handicapping sources. Each source submits their top picks per race, and the consensus ranking is built by scoring each horse: 4 points for a 1st-place pick, 3 for 2nd, 2 for 3rd, and 1 for 4th. The horse with the highest total score becomes the consensus top pick. Agreement % measures what share of experts included a horse in their picks — higher agreement signals stronger conviction across sources. The Win/Place/Show/ITM and Exotic stats below measure how the consensus top pick actually performed on race day.
Metric
Count
Rate
Total Races
585
Top Pick Wins (1st)
157
35.1%
Top Pick Places (2nd)
95
21.3%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)
64
14.3%
Top Pick ITM
316
70.7%
Pending
138
Exotic Wager Hits (Consensus Top 3 Picks)
Wager Type
Hits
Description
Exacta
36
Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta
25
Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta
10
Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta
37
Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order
Performance by Breed
Top-pick win rates vary dramatically by breed. Thoroughbred (TB) racing is the most form-driven and predictable, while Quarter Horse (QH) and Arabian (AR) sprints are decided in a few hundred yards and are far more chaotic — they naturally produce lower win rates. Because the summary above blends all breeds together, this table separates them so each breed's true performance is visible. W/P/S are wins, places (2nd), and shows (3rd), with the percentage of settled races in parentheses. ITM is the In-The-Money total (Win + Place + Show). EX/BEX/TRI/BTRI are exacta, boxed-exacta, trifecta, and boxed-trifecta hits on the top picks.
Thoroughbred
Source
Races
W
P
S
ITM
EX
BEX
TRI
BTRI
Algo 1 Winner
757
170 (30%)
118 (21%)
71 (12%)
359 (63%)
44
39
9
42
Algo 2 Winner
757
167 (30%)
105 (19%)
90 (16%)
362 (65%)
37
32
9
52
Algo 3 Winner
757
173 (31%)
105 (19%)
89 (16%)
367 (65%)
40
31
9
49
Algo 1 Longshot
400
2 (29%)
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
2 (29%)
0
0
0
0
Algo 2 Longshot
400
2 (11%)
2 (11%)
1 (6%)
5 (28%)
0
0
0
0
Algo 3 Longshot
400
2 (13%)
1 (7%)
1 (7%)
4 (27%)
0
0
0
0
Performance by Track
The tables below break down each pick source's performance at individual tracks. W/P/S show the number of wins, places (2nd), and shows (3rd) with the percentage of settled races in parentheses. ITM is the combined In The Money total (Win + Place + Show). EX (Exacta) counts races where the top 2 picks finished 1st and 2nd in exact order. BEX (Boxed Exacta) counts races where the top 2 picks both finished in the top 2 in either order. TRI (Trifecta) and BTRI (Boxed Trifecta) apply the same logic to the top 3 picks finishing in the top 3 positions. Each algorithm (Algo 1, 2, 3) uses different optimized weights, so their performance varies by track — comparing across algorithms at a specific track helps identify which model is strongest for that venue.
