Pick Pony Weekly Picks Recap — September 28, 2025

AI Picks Performance This Week

What a week to be a Pick Pony subscriber! Across all of our AI-powered systems, the numbers came in strong, with our algorithms consistently outpacing — or running neck-and-neck with — the 32.1% morning-line chalk baseline that the average bettor relies on. Leading the charge was Algo 2 (AI Ensemble), which posted a remarkable 34.3% win rate on its morning update, clearing the chalk benchmark by more than two full percentage points across nearly 600 settled races. AI Exacta also turned in a stellar 33.2% top-pick win rate, while Algo 2's base model hit an impressive 33.9% — both beating the favorite handily. Across the board, our ITM (in-the-money) rates told an equally exciting story, with Algo 2's morning update reaching a jaw-dropping 69.7% ITM rate, meaning nearly 7 out of every 10 top picks finished in the top three. The AI Best Bets module — our most selective, curated tier — delivered a rock-solid 66.4% ITM rate on 265 settled races, proving that quality and quantity can absolutely go hand in hand. With dozens of races still pending settlement, those numbers have nowhere to go but up.

Standout Wins

The highlight reel this week is absolutely packed. Perhaps the most eye-catching performance came from Algo 1's morning update and Experimental Weight Set 2's morning update, both of which flagged BOYS GO TO JUPITER (ML 30-1) at Laurel Park on September 25th — a massive longshot that romped home and rewarded believers in a big way. INFLAMMABELLE (ML 15-1) at Indiana Downs on September 24th was another monster call, identified by Algo 1, the Experimental Weight Sets, and others, proving the AI's ability to zero in on undervalued horses across multiple independent models. NITROGEN (ML 10-1) at Belmont on September 25th was perhaps the week's most consistent cross-system winner, flagged by virtually every algorithm we run — a true consensus crusher that beat a tough field at a generous price. On the Best Bets side, MY LADY JAMES (ML 5-1) at Golden Gate crossed the wire first on September 25th, and Stylishlyacclaimed (ML 4-1) at Saxony delivered a winner that also showed up in the Consensus Expert data — paying a juicy $12.60 on the board. The Off-Track Ensemble also shined on wet and off surfaces, with MISCHIEF IN MOTION (ML 15-1) and Happy I Got It (ML 10-1) both landing as top-pick winners, demonstrating that our specialized off-track model is a genuine edge when conditions get sloppy.

Key Insights

Several clear themes emerged from this week's results. First, the morning update versions of our algorithms consistently outperformed their base counterparts — Algo 2's morning update gained nearly half a percentage point in win rate and added 38 more ITM finishes over the base model, a meaningful edge that underscores the value of checking back for our updated morning lines before post time. Second, longshot identification was a genuine strength across the board: from 30-1 shots to 10-1 overlays, our AI models repeatedly surfaced horses that the market underestimated, giving subscribers real value beyond just backing the chalk. Third, the Off-Track Ensemble proved its worth as a specialized tool, going 41-for-195 settled races (21.0% wins) with strong ITM coverage — on off-track surfaces where the public often struggles, having a dedicated model is a significant advantage. Finally, cross-model consensus picks — horses like NITROGEN, INFLAMMABELLE, and BOYS GO TO JUPITER, flagged by multiple algorithms simultaneously — proved to be among the highest-confidence plays of the week, a pattern worth watching as you build your wagering strategy.

Looking Ahead

With several dozen races still pending settlement across all models, this week's already-impressive numbers could climb even higher — so stay tuned for final tallies. Next week, keep a close eye on the Algo 2 morning updates and any cross-system consensus picks, as those two signals delivered the most consistent value this week and could be your ticket to another profitable weekend at the windows. The horses are running, the AI is locked in — let's ride! 🏇

Weekly Performance Summary

How each pick source's top selection finished across every graded race this week.

Where our AI Ensemble picks finished this week

All 552 graded races the Algo 2 top pick ran in.

The bottom bar adds the first three together.

Show the numbers

Group	Win rate	Races
Won the race	33.9%	552
Finished 2nd	19.0%	552
Finished 3rd	15.6%	552
In the money	68.5%	552

Pick Pony's AI Winner models rank every horse in each race using a weighted combination of speed figures, pace analysis, trainer/jockey statistics, track bias, and dozens of other handicapping factors. Each algorithm uses a different set of optimized weights to capture different angles on the same race data. Top Pick Wins measures how often the model's #1 ranked horse won the race outright. Places and Shows count 2nd and 3rd place finishes respectively. ITM (In The Money) is the combined total of Win + Place + Show. Rates are calculated against settled races only (pending results excluded). The Exotic Wager Hits table shows how often the model's top 3 picks finished in the correct order (Exacta/Trifecta) or in any order within the top positions (Boxed Exacta/Boxed Trifecta). Morning Update rows are the same picks re-ranked after the official scratches and surface changes were applied that morning.

Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)

Several independent AI models each rank the race; the horse they agree on most is the pick.

Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

Metric	Count	Rate
Total Races	661
Top Pick Wins (1st)	186	33.8%
Top Pick Places (2nd)	105	19.1%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)	86	15.6%
Top Pick ITM	377	68.4%
Pending	53

Exotic Wager Hits (Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager Type	Hits (rate of playable races)	Description
Exacta	58 (13%)	Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta	27 (6%)	Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta	15 (3%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta	46 (10%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) Morning Update

The same picks re-ranked that morning after the official scratches and surface changes were applied.

Metric	Count	Rate
Total Races	661
Top Pick Wins (1st)	204	34.2%
Top Pick Places (2nd)	116	19.5%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)	95	15.9%
Top Pick ITM	415	69.6%
Pending	54

Exotic Wager Hits (Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) Morning Update)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager Type	Hits (rate of playable races)	Description
Exacta	70 (12%)	Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta	35 (6%)	Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta	18 (3%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta	68 (12%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)

An AI estimate of each horse's chance of winning, blended with the morning line; the most likely winner is the pick.

Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

Metric	Count	Rate
Total Races	661
Top Pick Wins (1st)	158	28.9%
Top Pick Places (2nd)	106	19.4%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)	94	17.2%
Top Pick ITM	358	65.4%
Pending	53

Exotic Wager Hits (Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager Type	Hits (rate of playable races)	Description
Exacta	44 (10%)	Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta	25 (6%)	Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta	12 (3%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta	41 (9%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) Morning Update

The same picks re-ranked that morning after the official scratches and surface changes were applied.

Metric	Count	Rate
Total Races	661
Top Pick Wins (1st)	173	29.0%
Top Pick Places (2nd)	119	19.9%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)	104	17.4%
Top Pick ITM	396	66.3%
Pending	54

Exotic Wager Hits (Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) Morning Update)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager Type	Hits (rate of playable races)	Description
Exacta	56 (10%)	Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta	35 (6%)	Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta	15 (3%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta	64 (11%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Algo 1

Our weighted rating: every horse is scored on speed, pace, class, form and connections, and the top score is the pick.

Algo 1 Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

Metric	Count	Rate
Total Races	661
Top Pick Wins (1st)	150	28.2%
Top Pick Places (2nd)	90	16.9%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)	87	16.4%
Top Pick ITM	327	61.6%
Pending	53

Exotic Wager Hits (Algo 1 Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager Type	Hits (rate of playable races)	Description
Exacta	44 (10%)	Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta	35 (8%)	Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta	13 (3%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta	43 (10%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Algo 1 Morning Update

The same picks re-ranked that morning after the official scratches and surface changes were applied.

Metric	Count	Rate
Total Races	661
Top Pick Wins (1st)	172	29.1%
Top Pick Places (2nd)	106	17.9%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)	94	15.9%
Top Pick ITM	372	62.8%
Pending	53

Exotic Wager Hits (Algo 1 Morning Update)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager Type	Hits (rate of playable races)	Description
Exacta	55 (10%)	Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta	42 (8%)	Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta	17 (3%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta	57 (10%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

AI Exacta

The top two horses in our exotics ordering, played as a $1 straight exacta.

AI Exacta Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

Metric	Count	Rate
Total Races	661
Top Pick Wins (1st)	181	33.1%
Top Pick Places (2nd)	116	21.2%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)	76	13.9%
Top Pick ITM	373	68.2%
Pending	53

Exotic Wager Hits (AI Exacta Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager Type	Hits (rate of playable races)	Description
Exacta	48 (11%)	Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta	30 (7%)	Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta	10 (2%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta	50 (11%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Experimental Weight Set 2

An experimental variant of the Algo 1 rating with a different weight profile, graded here to see whether it earns a place in the published ladder.

Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

Metric	Count	Rate
Total Races	661
Top Pick Wins (1st)	157	29.3%
Top Pick Places (2nd)	108	20.1%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)	89	16.6%
Top Pick ITM	354	66.0%
Pending	52

Exotic Wager Hits (Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager Type	Hits (rate of playable races)	Description
Exacta	40 (9%)	Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta	30 (7%)	Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta	12 (3%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta	49 (11%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Experimental Weight Set 2 Morning Update

The same picks re-ranked that morning after the official scratches and surface changes were applied.

Metric	Count	Rate
Total Races	661
Top Pick Wins (1st)	177	29.9%
Top Pick Places (2nd)	116	19.6%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)	97	16.4%
Top Pick ITM	390	65.9%
Pending	52

Exotic Wager Hits (Experimental Weight Set 2 Morning Update)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager Type	Hits (rate of playable races)	Description
Exacta	49 (9%)	Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta	35 (6%)	Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta	19 (3%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta	61 (11%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Experimental Weight Set 3

An experimental variant of the Algo 1 rating with a different weight profile, graded here to see whether it earns a place in the published ladder.

Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

Metric	Count	Rate
Total Races	661
Top Pick Wins (1st)	167	30.9%
Top Pick Places (2nd)	97	18.0%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)	92	17.0%
Top Pick ITM	356	65.9%
Pending	53

Exotic Wager Hits (Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager Type	Hits (rate of playable races)	Description
Exacta	55 (12%)	Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta	33 (7%)	Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta	16 (4%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta	41 (9%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Experimental Weight Set 3 Morning Update

The same picks re-ranked that morning after the official scratches and surface changes were applied.

Metric	Count	Rate
Total Races	661
Top Pick Wins (1st)	184	31.0%
Top Pick Places (2nd)	108	18.2%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)	101	17.0%
Top Pick ITM	393	66.2%
Pending	53

Exotic Wager Hits (Experimental Weight Set 3 Morning Update)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager Type	Hits (rate of playable races)	Description
Exacta	67 (12%)	Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta	39 (7%)	Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta	22 (4%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta	58 (10%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Ai Best Bets

Ai Best Bets Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

Metric	Count	Rate
Total Races	303
Top Pick Wins (1st)	78	29.4%
Top Pick Places (2nd)	57	21.5%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)	41	15.5%
Top Pick ITM	176	66.4%
Pending	11

Exotic Wager Hits (Ai Best Bets Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager Type	Hits (rate of playable races)	Description
Exacta	0 (—)	Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta	0 (—)	Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta	0 (—)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta	0 (—)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Algorithm Offtrk Ens

Algorithm Offtrk Ens Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

Metric	Count	Rate
Total Races	246
Top Pick Wins (1st)	40	20.8%
Top Pick Places (2nd)	37	19.3%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)	40	20.8%
Top Pick ITM	117	60.9%
Pending	34

Exotic Wager Hits (Algorithm Offtrk Ens Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager Type	Hits (rate of playable races)	Description
Exacta	12 (8%)	Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta	6 (4%)	Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta	4 (3%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta	8 (5%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Today’s Best Bets (AI × Expert Alignment)

The horses published in each day's Today's Best Bets post: races where the AI top pick and the expert consensus top pick were the same horse, split by how many AI models agreed.

Agreement	Races graded	Won	2nd	3rd	Win %
All 3 AI models + experts	124	43	25	22	34.7%
2 of 3 AI models + experts	62	14	11	11	22.6%
1 of 3 AI models + experts	56	14	13	7	25.0%
All Best Bets	242	71	49	40	29.3%
Pending	109

AI Longshot Picks (Kelly Edge Plays)

Longshot picks are individual horses flagged at publication time: their morning-line odds were 8-1 or greater — prices the betting public considers unlikely to win — and the model's calibrated win probability said the price overpaid. Unlike the winner models above, a longshot is not a race's top-ranked horse, so these tables count selections, not races: every flagged horse is one bet, graded on its own finish, and a single race can contribute more than one. (For the same reason there is no exotic-hits table here — an exacta or trifecta needs a ranked 1-2-3 ticket, which a set of longshot flags does not define.) There is also one longshot table rather than one per algorithm: the flag depends only on the horse's price and its calibrated edge, never on where an algorithm ranked it, so all three models publish exactly the same longshot list. Because longshots win far less frequently by definition, win rates in this section are expected to be substantially lower than the winner models above. That is normal and by design — even a modest longshot win rate of 5-10% can be highly profitable because the payoffs are dramatically larger. A $2 win bet on an 8-1 longshot returns $18. Focus on ITM rate and on the realised ROI in the Longshot Betting Strategy Simulator below rather than on raw win percentage when evaluating longshot model performance.

The horses listed in each day's Kelly Edge Plays section: 10-1 or higher on the morning line and rated a value play by our models; counted per horse, not per race.

Metric	Count	Rate
Longshot Selections	286
Races Covered	187
Wins (1st)	13	5.8%
Places (2nd)	18	8.0%
Shows (3rd)	14	6.2%
ITM	45	20.1%
Pending	25

Longshot Betting Strategy Simulator

What a flat win bet on every flagged longshot would have returned this week at each minimum-edge threshold.

Each strategy below replays the past 60 days of AI longshot picks as actual $2 mutuel bets and reports the realised return. A longer window than the rest of this report is used here on purpose: longshots are rare and extremely high-variance, so a single week's results are dominated by luck — only over a larger sample do the calibrated edge strategies separate from simply betting every longshot. Bets are deduplicated by (track, race, horse) so a horse picked by all three algorithms generates one bet, not three. Edge strategies use a calibrated win probability (from the longshot meta-learner) and bet only when P(win) × decimal odds − 1 exceeds the listed threshold — these target overlays rather than long prices for their own sake. Hit% is the share of tickets that cashed any leg. Published longshots graded: 2413; wider 10/1-and-longer universe available to the edge rows: 15012, of which 14746 could be assigned a calibrated edge. Calibrator: out-of-sample tiered calibrator on the cross-race win probability (lgbm_win_prob_fwd), trained through 2026-07-30; edge rows replay only the 59 days after that date, so no graded race was ever seen by the calibrator. The edge filters use only leak-free forward scores (lgbm_win_prob_fwd — captured before each race ran), so the ROIs are a genuine out-of-sample estimate — never the in-sample re-scored values that previously inflated this section. The two families are measured differently — read them separately. The raw-filter rows grade the longshots we actually published, over the full 60 days. The edge rows sweep a different population: every thoroughbred runner priced at 10/1 or longer, published or not. That matters, because being published as a longshot already requires passing an edge test — so re-applying an edge threshold to the published picks would just re-filter an already-filtered group and tell you nothing. The edge rows also cover only the most recent 59 days (14746 runners), because everything before 2026-07-30 was needed to fit the calibrator and grading it would be marking its own homework. That window widens on its own as forward scores accumulate.

Strategy	Bets	Tickets Cashed	Stake	Payout
$2 WIN — all longshots	2413	135 (5.6%)	$4826.00	$2994.54
$2 PLACE — all longshots	2413	341 (14.1%)	$4826.00	$3359.68
$2 SHOW — all longshots	2413	551 (22.8%)	$4826.00	$3195.12
$2 WIN + $2 PLACE	2413	341 (14.1%)	$9652.00	$6354.22
$2 WIN — ML ≥ 15/1	1639	80 (4.9%)	$3278.00	$2132.56
$2 WIN — ML ≥ 20/1	1106	37 (3.3%)	$2212.00	$1144.38
$2 WIN — field ≥ 8	1712	89 (5.2%)	$3424.00	$2285.72
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 5%	8186	491 (6.0%)	$16372.00	$10720.64
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 10%	6761	416 (6.2%)	$13522.00	$9108.20
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 20%	6252	398 (6.4%)	$12504.00	$8587.28
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 30%	4129	310 (7.5%)	$8258.00	$5836.38
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 40%	3160	245 (7.8%)	$6320.00	$4205.56
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 50%	1795	134 (7.5%)	$3590.00	$2541.62
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 60%	244	15 (6.1%)	$488.00	$275.64
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 70%	0	—	$0.00	$0.00
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 80%	0	—	$0.00	$0.00
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 90%	0	—	$0.00	$0.00
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 100%	0	—	$0.00	$0.00
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 10% AND field ≥ 8	3875	217 (5.6%)	$7750.00	$5368.02

Trifecta Structure Plays (AI Exotics)

The Trifecta line from each day's AI Exotics section: key the top pick to win over the next three horses (six combinations per race); the tag shows whether the race shape looked playable.

Each AI Predictions post suggests one trifecta structure per race: the Algo 3 top pick to win, with its next three ranked horses boxed for 2nd and 3rd (6 combinations). Races our race-shape model rates most favorable are tagged ⭐ Best Bet in the post. This table grades last week's published plays against the actual trifecta payoffs at each track's real wager minimum — no assumptions, no hindsight.

Plays graded	322
Trifectas hit	38 (11.8%)
Total staked	$1,284.60
Total returned	$781.49

308 race(s) skipped for scratches inside the top four; 31 skipped where the track's trifecta minimum wasn't recorded. Per-race wager minimums have been captured since July 4, 2026, so this ledger grows more complete each week.

Benchmark: The Morning-Line Favorite

What betting the morning-line favorite in every race would have returned: the baseline every pick source has to beat.

The simplest possible strategy is to always bet the morning-line favorite — the "chalk." This table shows how that baseline performed across the same thoroughbred races this week, so you can judge the AI's win rates against what the public's top choice delivered. Beating the chalk consistently is the real test of any handicapping model.

Metric	Count	Rate
Settled Races	651
Favorite Wins (1st)	209	32.1%
Favorite Places (2nd)	142	21.8%
Favorite Shows (3rd)	100	15.4%
Favorite ITM	451	69.3%

Consensus Expert Picks

Picks from more than twenty-five published handicappers, weighted into one consensus selection per race.

Consensus Expert Picks are derived from multiple independent handicapping sources. Each source submits their top picks per race, and the consensus ranking is built by scoring each horse: 4 points for a 1st-place pick, 3 for 2nd, 2 for 3rd, and 1 for 4th. The horse with the highest total score becomes the consensus top pick. Agreement % measures what share of experts included a horse in their picks — higher agreement signals stronger conviction across sources. The Win/Place/Show/ITM and Exotic stats below measure how the consensus top pick actually performed on race day.

Metric	Count	Rate
Total Races	635
Top Pick Wins (1st)	138	28.0%
Top Pick Places (2nd)	105	21.3%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)	69	14.0%
Top Pick ITM	312	63.3%
Pending	142

Exotic Wager Hits (Consensus Top 3 Picks)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager Type	Hits (rate of playable races)	Description
Exacta	34 (9%)	Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta	30 (8%)	Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta	8 (2%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta	38 (10%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Performance by Breed

The same results split by thoroughbred and quarter horse races, which are handicapped differently.

Top-pick win rates vary dramatically by breed. Thoroughbred (TB) racing is the most form-driven and predictable, while Quarter Horse (QH) and Arabian (AR) sprints are decided in a few hundred yards and are far more chaotic — they naturally produce lower win rates. Because the summary above blends all breeds together, this table separates them so each breed's true performance is visible. W/P/S are wins, places (2nd), and shows (3rd), with the percentage of settled races in parentheses. ITM is the In-The-Money total (Win + Place + Show). EX/BEX/TRI/BTRI are exacta, boxed-exacta, trifecta, and boxed-trifecta hits on the top picks. Longshot rows count individual flagged selections rather than races (a race can contribute more than one), and show dashes for the exotic columns because those wagers need a ranked 1-2-3 ticket.

Thoroughbred

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	661	186 (34%)	105 (19%)	86 (16%)	377 (68%)	58 (13%)	27 (6%)	15 (3%)	46 (10%)
Algo 3 Winner	661	158 (29%)	106 (19%)	94 (17%)	358 (65%)	44 (10%)	25 (6%)	12 (3%)	41 (9%)
Algo 1 Winner	661	150 (28%)	90 (17%)	87 (16%)	327 (62%)	44 (10%)	35 (8%)	13 (3%)	43 (10%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	661	157 (29%)	108 (20%)	89 (17%)	354 (66%)	40 (9%)	30 (7%)	12 (3%)	49 (11%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	661	167 (31%)	97 (18%)	92 (17%)	356 (66%)	55 (12%)	33 (7%)	16 (4%)	41 (9%)
AI Longshot	286	13 (6%)	18 (8%)	14 (6%)	45 (20%)	—	—	—	—

Performance by Track

The same results split by track, to show where each source is strongest and weakest.

The tables below break down each pick source's performance at individual tracks. W/P/S show the number of wins, places (2nd), and shows (3rd) with the percentage of settled races in parentheses. ITM is the combined In The Money total (Win + Place + Show). EX (Exacta) counts races where the top 2 picks finished 1st and 2nd in exact order. BEX (Boxed Exacta) counts races where the top 2 picks both finished in the top 2 in either order. TRI (Trifecta) and BTRI (Boxed Trifecta) apply the same logic to the top 3 picks finishing in the top 3 positions. Longshot rows count individual flagged selections rather than races (a race can contribute more than one) and show dashes in the exotic columns, because those wagers need a ranked 1-2-3 ticket that a per-horse longshot flag does not define. Algo 1 is the weighted rating, Algo 2 the AI Ensemble and Algo 3 the AI Win Probability model — ordered by measured performance, so a higher number should be the stronger source; the Weight Set rows are experimental profiles graded as shadows. Comparing sources at a specific track helps identify which is strongest for that venue. The ML Favorite (chalk) row shows how the morning-line favorite performed in that track's thoroughbred races — the baseline any pick source needs to beat to be adding value at that venue.

AJX

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Expert Consensus	9	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)

ALB

AI Picks posts graded here: Wed 9/23 · Sat 9/26 · Sun 9/27

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	18	1 (14%)	1 (14%)	2 (29%)	4 (57%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	1 (20%)
Algo 3 Winner	18	2 (25%)	0 (0%)	3 (38%)	5 (62%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	1 (25%)
Algo 1 Winner	18	0 (0%)	3 (38%)	0 (0%)	3 (38%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	18	2 (29%)	2 (29%)	1 (14%)	5 (71%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	18	1 (17%)	1 (17%)	2 (33%)	4 (67%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	1 (20%)
AI Longshot	4	1 (33%)	0 (0%)	1 (33%)	2 (67%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	51	9 (25%)	7 (19%)	6 (17%)	22 (61%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
ML Favorite (chalk)	9	1 (11%)	3 (33%)	2 (22%)	6 (67%)	—	—	—	—

ASD

AI Picks posts graded here: Tue 9/22 · Wed 9/23

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	16	3 (19%)	5 (31%)	2 (12%)	10 (62%)	2 (14%)	0 (0%)	2 (14%)	0 (0%)
Algo 3 Winner	16	2 (13%)	4 (27%)	2 (13%)	8 (53%)	1 (7%)	1 (7%)	1 (7%)	2 (13%)
Algo 1 Winner	16	4 (27%)	2 (13%)	3 (20%)	9 (60%)	1 (7%)	1 (7%)	1 (7%)	1 (7%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	16	2 (13%)	4 (27%)	3 (20%)	9 (60%)	1 (7%)	2 (14%)	0 (0%)	2 (14%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	16	3 (20%)	4 (27%)	3 (20%)	10 (67%)	1 (7%)	1 (7%)	1 (7%)	1 (7%)
AI Longshot	10	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	16	4 (27%)	4 (27%)	3 (20%)	11 (73%)	2 (13%)	0 (0%)	2 (13%)	1 (7%)
ML Favorite (chalk)	16	3 (19%)	6 (38%)	1 (6%)	10 (62%)	—	—	—	—

BEL

AI Picks posts graded here: Thu 9/24 · Fri 9/25 · Sat 9/26

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	28	6 (38%)	2 (12%)	0 (0%)	8 (50%)	0 (0%)	2 (15%)	0 (0%)	1 (8%)
Algo 3 Winner	28	4 (25%)	1 (6%)	1 (6%)	6 (38%)	1 (8%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
Algo 1 Winner	28	3 (19%)	4 (25%)	1 (6%)	8 (50%)	0 (0%)	2 (15%)	0 (0%)	1 (8%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	28	4 (25%)	4 (25%)	0 (0%)	8 (50%)	0 (0%)	1 (8%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	28	4 (25%)	3 (19%)	0 (0%)	7 (44%)	1 (8%)	1 (8%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
AI Longshot	32	1 (5%)	1 (5%)	1 (5%)	3 (16%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	17	3 (19%)	3 (19%)	0 (0%)	6 (38%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
ML Favorite (chalk)	17	6 (35%)	1 (6%)	1 (6%)	8 (47%)	—	—	—	—

BTP

AI Picks posts graded here: Wed 9/23 · Thu 9/24 · Fri 9/25 · Sat 9/26

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	32	14 (48%)	6 (21%)	5 (17%)	25 (86%)	5 (23%)	2 (9%)	3 (14%)	0 (0%)
Algo 3 Winner	32	12 (40%)	6 (20%)	3 (10%)	21 (70%)	3 (14%)	2 (9%)	0 (0%)	1 (5%)
Algo 1 Winner	32	8 (31%)	7 (27%)	5 (19%)	20 (77%)	2 (9%)	1 (5%)	2 (9%)	1 (5%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	32	9 (33%)	6 (22%)	5 (19%)	20 (74%)	2 (10%)	2 (10%)	1 (5%)	2 (10%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	32	14 (47%)	8 (27%)	3 (10%)	25 (83%)	3 (13%)	2 (9%)	1 (4%)	1 (4%)
AI Longshot	7	1 (17%)	0 (0%)	1 (17%)	2 (33%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	32	15 (54%)	6 (21%)	2 (7%)	23 (82%)	3 (11%)	3 (11%)	0 (0%)	4 (14%)
ML Favorite (chalk)	32	13 (41%)	10 (31%)	6 (19%)	29 (91%)	—	—	—	—

CDX

AI Picks posts graded here: Wed 9/23 · Thu 9/24 · Fri 9/25 · Sat 9/26 · Sun 9/27

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	48	11 (25%)	6 (14%)	9 (20%)	26 (59%)	5 (14%)	1 (3%)	2 (6%)	2 (6%)
Algo 3 Winner	48	9 (20%)	9 (20%)	10 (22%)	28 (62%)	3 (8%)	2 (5%)	1 (3%)	3 (8%)
Algo 1 Winner	48	8 (19%)	5 (12%)	10 (23%)	23 (53%)	1 (3%)	3 (9%)	0 (0%)	4 (12%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	48	6 (14%)	7 (16%)	11 (25%)	24 (55%)	1 (3%)	3 (9%)	0 (0%)	5 (16%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	48	9 (21%)	6 (14%)	10 (23%)	25 (58%)	2 (6%)	1 (3%)	0 (0%)	4 (13%)
AI Longshot	23	2 (11%)	4 (22%)	0 (0%)	6 (33%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	48	11 (24%)	6 (13%)	9 (20%)	26 (58%)	1 (2%)	2 (4%)	0 (0%)	4 (9%)
ML Favorite (chalk)	48	11 (23%)	9 (19%)	9 (19%)	29 (60%)	—	—	—	—

CTD

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	19	8 (44%)	2 (11%)	3 (17%)	13 (72%)	3 (18%)	1 (6%)	0 (0%)	3 (18%)
Algo 3 Winner	19	6 (33%)	4 (22%)	5 (28%)	15 (83%)	2 (12%)	1 (6%)	0 (0%)	3 (18%)
Algo 1 Winner	19	3 (17%)	3 (17%)	4 (22%)	10 (56%)	0 (0%)	2 (12%)	0 (0%)	2 (12%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	19	6 (33%)	2 (11%)	3 (17%)	11 (61%)	3 (17%)	1 (6%)	0 (0%)	2 (11%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	19	3 (17%)	1 (6%)	5 (28%)	9 (50%)	2 (12%)	1 (6%)	1 (6%)	1 (6%)
AI Longshot	5	0 (0%)	1 (25%)	0 (0%)	1 (25%)	—	—	—	—
ML Favorite (chalk)	19	11 (58%)	1 (5%)	1 (5%)	13 (68%)	—	—	—	—

CTM

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Expert Consensus	17	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)

CTX

AI Picks posts graded here: Thu 9/24 · Fri 9/25 · Sat 9/26

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	24	9 (38%)	4 (17%)	2 (8%)	15 (62%)	2 (10%)	1 (5%)	1 (5%)	2 (10%)
Algo 3 Winner	24	8 (33%)	6 (25%)	3 (12%)	17 (71%)	1 (6%)	2 (12%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
Algo 1 Winner	24	7 (29%)	5 (21%)	0 (0%)	12 (50%)	3 (17%)	0 (0%)	1 (6%)	1 (6%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	24	8 (35%)	6 (26%)	2 (9%)	16 (70%)	2 (11%)	2 (11%)	1 (6%)	2 (11%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	24	8 (33%)	6 (25%)	2 (8%)	16 (67%)	3 (16%)	2 (11%)	1 (5%)	1 (5%)
AI Longshot	13	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	1 (8%)	1 (8%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	24	5 (21%)	3 (12%)	4 (17%)	12 (50%)	1 (4%)	2 (8%)	0 (0%)	1 (4%)
ML Favorite (chalk)	24	9 (38%)	4 (17%)	3 (12%)	16 (67%)	—	—	—	—

DEL

AI Picks posts graded here: Wed 9/23 · Thu 9/24 · Fri 9/25 · Sat 9/26

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	34	14 (64%)	2 (9%)	2 (9%)	18 (82%)	1 (5%)	1 (5%)	0 (0%)	3 (16%)
Algo 3 Winner	34	10 (45%)	2 (9%)	2 (9%)	14 (64%)	1 (6%)	1 (6%)	0 (0%)	3 (17%)
Algo 1 Winner	34	9 (41%)	2 (9%)	3 (14%)	14 (64%)	2 (11%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	3 (16%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	34	9 (43%)	2 (10%)	2 (10%)	13 (62%)	2 (10%)	1 (5%)	1 (5%)	3 (15%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	34	10 (45%)	2 (9%)	3 (14%)	15 (68%)	3 (15%)	1 (5%)	0 (0%)	2 (10%)
AI Longshot	14	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	—	—	—	—
ML Favorite (chalk)	24	12 (50%)	2 (8%)	2 (8%)	16 (67%)	—	—	—	—

FEX

AI Picks posts graded here: Mon 9/21 · Tue 9/22

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	12	5 (56%)	1 (11%)	2 (22%)	8 (89%)	2 (22%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
Algo 3 Winner	12	4 (44%)	1 (11%)	2 (22%)	7 (78%)	3 (33%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	1 (11%)
Algo 1 Winner	12	4 (40%)	2 (20%)	2 (20%)	8 (80%)	3 (38%)	1 (12%)	0 (0%)	1 (12%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	12	4 (44%)	0 (0%)	2 (22%)	6 (67%)	2 (25%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	12	4 (44%)	1 (11%)	2 (22%)	7 (78%)	2 (22%)	1 (11%)	0 (0%)	1 (11%)
Expert Consensus	12	3 (27%)	5 (45%)	2 (18%)	10 (91%)	1 (9%)	2 (18%)	1 (9%)	2 (18%)
ML Favorite (chalk)	12	4 (33%)	1 (8%)	3 (25%)	8 (67%)	—	—	—	—

FLX

AI Picks posts graded here: Mon 9/21 · Tue 9/22 · Wed 9/23

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	25	7 (28%)	7 (28%)	1 (4%)	15 (60%)	5 (25%)	5 (25%)	1 (5%)	2 (10%)
Algo 3 Winner	25	5 (21%)	6 (25%)	3 (12%)	14 (58%)	3 (16%)	0 (0%)	1 (5%)	2 (11%)
Algo 1 Winner	25	8 (33%)	5 (21%)	3 (12%)	16 (67%)	4 (20%)	4 (20%)	0 (0%)	3 (15%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	25	8 (33%)	6 (25%)	3 (12%)	17 (71%)	5 (26%)	3 (16%)	1 (5%)	4 (21%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	25	9 (38%)	5 (21%)	3 (12%)	17 (71%)	6 (32%)	3 (16%)	0 (0%)	2 (11%)
AI Longshot	7	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	1 (17%)	1 (17%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	25	3 (12%)	8 (33%)	2 (8%)	13 (54%)	3 (12%)	4 (17%)	1 (4%)	2 (8%)
ML Favorite (chalk)	25	9 (36%)	5 (20%)	1 (4%)	15 (60%)	—	—	—	—

FPK

AI Picks posts graded here: Tue 9/22 · Sat 9/26

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	16	4 (25%)	3 (19%)	6 (38%)	13 (81%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	4 (36%)
Algo 3 Winner	16	4 (27%)	4 (27%)	4 (27%)	12 (80%)	1 (10%)	1 (10%)	1 (10%)	3 (30%)
Algo 1 Winner	16	2 (14%)	2 (14%)	5 (36%)	9 (64%)	0 (0%)	1 (8%)	0 (0%)	4 (33%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	16	5 (33%)	2 (13%)	5 (33%)	12 (80%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	3 (30%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	16	5 (33%)	3 (20%)	5 (33%)	13 (87%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	3 (27%)
AI Longshot	10	1 (10%)	1 (10%)	0 (0%)	2 (20%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	16	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)
ML Favorite (chalk)	16	4 (25%)	4 (25%)	5 (31%)	13 (81%)	—	—	—	—

GPX

AI Picks posts graded here: Fri 9/25 · Sat 9/26 · Sun 9/27

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	28	7 (28%)	6 (24%)	4 (16%)	17 (68%)	1 (6%)	1 (6%)	0 (0%)	1 (6%)
Algo 3 Winner	28	4 (17%)	7 (29%)	3 (12%)	14 (58%)	1 (6%)	1 (6%)	0 (0%)	1 (6%)
Algo 1 Winner	28	3 (12%)	4 (17%)	3 (12%)	10 (42%)	1 (6%)	2 (12%)	0 (0%)	1 (6%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	28	4 (17%)	5 (21%)	2 (8%)	11 (46%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	28	5 (21%)	3 (12%)	3 (12%)	11 (46%)	2 (12%)	0 (0%)	1 (6%)	0 (0%)
AI Longshot	9	0 (0%)	1 (11%)	2 (22%)	3 (33%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	42	3 (13%)	7 (30%)	2 (9%)	12 (52%)	0 (0%)	2 (9%)	0 (0%)	2 (9%)
ML Favorite (chalk)	28	5 (18%)	7 (25%)	6 (21%)	18 (64%)	—	—	—	—

GRP

AI Picks posts graded here: Mon 9/21 · Sun 9/27

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	12	5 (42%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	5 (42%)	2 (17%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
Algo 3 Winner	12	5 (42%)	4 (33%)	0 (0%)	9 (75%)	0 (0%)	2 (17%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
Algo 1 Winner	12	6 (50%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	6 (50%)	2 (17%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	12	9 (75%)	0 (0%)	1 (8%)	10 (83%)	2 (17%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	1 (8%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	12	8 (67%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	8 (67%)	2 (17%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
AI Longshot	1	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	—	—	—	—
ML Favorite (chalk)	12	6 (50%)	1 (8%)	0 (0%)	7 (58%)	—	—	—	—

IND

AI Picks posts graded here: Mon 9/21 · Tue 9/22 · Wed 9/23 · Thu 9/24

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	32	8 (31%)	3 (12%)	4 (15%)	15 (58%)	4 (21%)	1 (5%)	0 (0%)	2 (11%)
Algo 3 Winner	32	7 (28%)	2 (8%)	4 (16%)	13 (52%)	1 (6%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	1 (6%)
Algo 1 Winner	32	10 (40%)	4 (16%)	3 (12%)	17 (68%)	2 (13%)	1 (7%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	32	8 (33%)	4 (17%)	1 (4%)	13 (54%)	4 (25%)	0 (0%)	1 (6%)	1 (6%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	32	9 (35%)	0 (0%)	6 (23%)	15 (58%)	2 (12%)	0 (0%)	1 (6%)	0 (0%)
AI Longshot	8	1 (14%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	1 (14%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	36	12 (40%)	4 (13%)	3 (10%)	19 (63%)	3 (10%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	1 (3%)
ML Favorite (chalk)	32	8 (25%)	6 (19%)	5 (16%)	19 (59%)	—	—	—	—

LAD

AI Picks posts graded here: Mon 9/21 · Tue 9/22 · Wed 9/23

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	21	7 (41%)	2 (12%)	3 (18%)	12 (71%)	2 (15%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	2 (15%)
Algo 3 Winner	21	5 (29%)	2 (12%)	5 (29%)	12 (71%)	2 (15%)	1 (8%)	2 (15%)	0 (0%)
Algo 1 Winner	21	6 (32%)	2 (11%)	6 (32%)	14 (74%)	3 (23%)	0 (0%)	3 (23%)	2 (15%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	21	7 (39%)	1 (6%)	4 (22%)	12 (67%)	3 (23%)	0 (0%)	3 (23%)	1 (8%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	21	8 (44%)	1 (6%)	4 (22%)	13 (72%)	3 (23%)	0 (0%)	3 (23%)	1 (8%)
AI Longshot	6	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	21	4 (24%)	4 (24%)	3 (18%)	11 (65%)	1 (6%)	3 (18%)	0 (0%)	2 (12%)
ML Favorite (chalk)	21	7 (33%)	2 (10%)	6 (29%)	15 (71%)	—	—	—	—

LAX

AI Picks posts graded here: Sat 9/26

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	2	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)
Algo 3 Winner	2	1 (100%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	1 (100%)	1 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)
Algo 1 Winner	2	1 (100%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	1 (100%)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	2	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	2	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)
ML Favorite (chalk)	2	1 (50%)	1 (50%)	0 (0%)	2 (100%)	—	—	—	—

LBG

AI Picks posts graded here: Sat 9/26 · Sun 9/27

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	11	3 (27%)	5 (45%)	0 (0%)	8 (73%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	3 (33%)
Algo 3 Winner	11	3 (27%)	3 (27%)	2 (18%)	8 (73%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	2 (20%)
Algo 1 Winner	11	3 (27%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	3 (27%)	1 (9%)	0 (0%)	1 (9%)	0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	11	4 (40%)	3 (30%)	1 (10%)	8 (80%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	1 (10%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	11	3 (27%)	5 (45%)	0 (0%)	8 (73%)	1 (10%)	1 (10%)	1 (10%)	2 (20%)
ML Favorite (chalk)	11	2 (18%)	6 (55%)	0 (0%)	8 (73%)	—	—	—	—

LRL

AI Picks posts graded here: Fri 9/25 · Sat 9/26 · Sun 9/27

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	29	5 (23%)	4 (18%)	4 (18%)	13 (59%)	3 (19%)	1 (6%)	0 (0%)	2 (12%)
Algo 3 Winner	29	7 (30%)	2 (9%)	5 (22%)	14 (61%)	3 (19%)	1 (6%)	0 (0%)	1 (6%)
Algo 1 Winner	29	5 (26%)	3 (16%)	5 (26%)	13 (68%)	2 (12%)	1 (6%)	1 (6%)	2 (12%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	29	5 (23%)	6 (27%)	4 (18%)	15 (68%)	1 (7%)	2 (13%)	0 (0%)	2 (13%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	29	5 (25%)	6 (30%)	3 (15%)	14 (70%)	1 (6%)	2 (12%)	0 (0%)	2 (12%)
AI Longshot	24	3 (17%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	3 (17%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	44	3 (15%)	4 (20%)	3 (15%)	10 (50%)	2 (10%)	2 (10%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
ML Favorite (chalk)	29	7 (24%)	8 (28%)	5 (17%)	20 (69%)	—	—	—	—

LSX

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Expert Consensus	29	12 (43%)	8 (29%)	3 (11%)	23 (82%)	1 (4%)	1 (4%)	0 (0%)	2 (7%)

MED

AI Picks posts graded here: Fri 9/25 · Sat 9/26

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	12	2 (33%)	2 (33%)	1 (17%)	5 (83%)	0 (0%)	1 (20%)	0 (0%)	2 (40%)
Algo 3 Winner	12	3 (50%)	0 (0%)	2 (33%)	5 (83%)	1 (20%)	0 (0%)	1 (20%)	2 (40%)
Algo 1 Winner	12	2 (40%)	0 (0%)	2 (40%)	4 (80%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	2 (40%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	12	2 (40%)	1 (20%)	1 (20%)	4 (80%)	1 (20%)	1 (20%)	1 (20%)	2 (40%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	12	3 (60%)	0 (0%)	1 (20%)	4 (80%)	2 (40%)	0 (0%)	1 (20%)	1 (20%)
AI Longshot	4	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	—	—	—	—
ML Favorite (chalk)	6	3 (50%)	1 (17%)	1 (17%)	5 (83%)	—	—	—	—

MNR

AI Picks posts graded here: Mon 9/21 · Tue 9/22 · Wed 9/23 · Sun 9/27

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	32	6 (32%)	3 (16%)	2 (11%)	11 (58%)	1 (11%)	1 (11%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
Algo 3 Winner	32	8 (47%)	2 (12%)	3 (18%)	13 (76%)	1 (10%)	1 (10%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
Algo 1 Winner	32	5 (31%)	1 (6%)	3 (19%)	9 (56%)	1 (12%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	1 (12%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	32	4 (24%)	3 (18%)	3 (18%)	10 (59%)	1 (10%)	1 (10%)	1 (10%)	0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	32	5 (28%)	1 (6%)	4 (22%)	10 (56%)	2 (18%)	1 (9%)	1 (9%)	1 (9%)
AI Longshot	27	1 (6%)	2 (12%)	3 (19%)	6 (38%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	32	6 (30%)	3 (15%)	1 (5%)	10 (50%)	2 (10%)	1 (5%)	0 (0%)	2 (10%)
ML Favorite (chalk)	22	6 (27%)	5 (23%)	2 (9%)	13 (59%)	—	—	—	—

PID

AI Picks posts graded here: Mon 9/21 · Tue 9/22 · Wed 9/23

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	24	7 (30%)	5 (22%)	3 (13%)	15 (65%)	2 (11%)	1 (5%)	0 (0%)	2 (11%)
Algo 3 Winner	24	5 (22%)	4 (17%)	5 (22%)	14 (61%)	0 (0%)	1 (5%)	0 (0%)	1 (5%)
Algo 1 Winner	24	7 (32%)	2 (9%)	4 (18%)	13 (59%)	2 (11%)	0 (0%)	1 (6%)	1 (6%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	24	8 (33%)	3 (12%)	4 (17%)	15 (62%)	2 (10%)	0 (0%)	1 (5%)	0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	24	5 (22%)	3 (13%)	6 (26%)	14 (61%)	2 (10%)	2 (10%)	1 (5%)	0 (0%)
AI Longshot	1	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	—	—	—	—
ML Favorite (chalk)	24	4 (17%)	6 (25%)	3 (12%)	13 (54%)	—	—	—	—

PRM

AI Picks posts graded here: Thu 9/24 · Fri 9/25 · Sat 9/26

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	29	10 (38%)	5 (19%)	5 (19%)	20 (77%)	6 (26%)	1 (4%)	1 (4%)	3 (13%)
Algo 3 Winner	29	8 (30%)	8 (30%)	4 (15%)	20 (74%)	4 (17%)	3 (13%)	2 (9%)	2 (9%)
Algo 1 Winner	29	10 (38%)	6 (23%)	4 (15%)	20 (77%)	5 (22%)	4 (17%)	2 (9%)	3 (13%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	29	11 (42%)	4 (15%)	3 (12%)	18 (69%)	4 (18%)	0 (0%)	1 (5%)	3 (14%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	29	9 (33%)	7 (26%)	4 (15%)	20 (74%)	4 (17%)	2 (9%)	1 (4%)	4 (17%)
AI Longshot	17	1 (7%)	0 (0%)	1 (7%)	2 (13%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	38	14 (38%)	9 (24%)	4 (11%)	27 (73%)	6 (16%)	2 (5%)	4 (11%)	2 (5%)
ML Favorite (chalk)	29	12 (41%)	4 (14%)	7 (24%)	23 (79%)	—	—	—	—

RPX

AI Picks posts graded here: Thu 9/24 · Fri 9/25 · Sat 9/26 · Sun 9/27

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	40	11 (30%)	9 (24%)	6 (16%)	26 (70%)	4 (14%)	1 (3%)	2 (7%)	1 (3%)
Algo 3 Winner	40	11 (31%)	7 (19%)	5 (14%)	23 (64%)	5 (17%)	0 (0%)	2 (7%)	2 (7%)
Algo 1 Winner	40	9 (27%)	6 (18%)	5 (15%)	20 (61%)	3 (12%)	3 (12%)	1 (4%)	0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	40	8 (22%)	8 (22%)	7 (19%)	23 (64%)	2 (7%)	2 (7%)	0 (0%)	4 (15%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	40	9 (26%)	7 (21%)	7 (21%)	23 (68%)	4 (14%)	2 (7%)	1 (4%)	1 (4%)
AI Longshot	20	0 (0%)	2 (11%)	2 (11%)	4 (21%)	—	—	—	—
ML Favorite (chalk)	40	11 (28%)	10 (25%)	8 (20%)	29 (72%)	—	—	—	—

SAX

AI Picks posts graded here: Fri 9/25 · Sat 9/26 · Sun 9/27

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	27	7 (26%)	8 (30%)	6 (22%)	21 (78%)	0 (0%)	3 (13%)	0 (0%)	4 (17%)
Algo 3 Winner	27	4 (16%)	6 (24%)	8 (32%)	18 (72%)	1 (5%)	1 (5%)	0 (0%)	3 (14%)
Algo 1 Winner	27	6 (25%)	6 (25%)	6 (25%)	18 (75%)	1 (5%)	2 (9%)	0 (0%)	4 (18%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	27	4 (16%)	9 (36%)	7 (28%)	20 (80%)	0 (0%)	3 (14%)	0 (0%)	5 (23%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	27	6 (25%)	8 (33%)	4 (17%)	18 (75%)	0 (0%)	5 (21%)	0 (0%)	5 (21%)
AI Longshot	22	0 (0%)	4 (19%)	0 (0%)	4 (19%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	27	7 (28%)	4 (16%)	7 (28%)	18 (72%)	1 (4%)	1 (4%)	0 (0%)	3 (12%)
ML Favorite (chalk)	27	8 (30%)	6 (22%)	6 (22%)	20 (74%)	—	—	—	—

SHW

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	7	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)
Algo 3 Winner	7	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)
Algo 1 Winner	7	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	7	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	7	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)

SWF

AI Picks posts graded here: Fri 9/25 · Sat 9/26 · Sun 9/27

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	14	3 (25%)	0 (0%)	3 (25%)	6 (50%)	1 (9%)	0 (0%)	1 (9%)	1 (9%)
Algo 3 Winner	14	4 (31%)	1 (8%)	3 (23%)	8 (62%)	1 (9%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	1 (9%)
Algo 1 Winner	14	2 (17%)	1 (8%)	1 (8%)	4 (33%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	14	2 (17%)	0 (0%)	3 (25%)	5 (42%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	14	4 (31%)	2 (15%)	2 (15%)	8 (62%)	1 (9%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
AI Longshot	2	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	—	—	—	—
ML Favorite (chalk)	14	3 (21%)	4 (29%)	2 (14%)	9 (64%)	—	—	—	—

TDN

AI Picks posts graded here: Mon 9/21 · Tue 9/22 · Wed 9/23 · Thu 9/24

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	32	14 (50%)	5 (18%)	6 (21%)	25 (89%)	3 (12%)	2 (8%)	1 (4%)	4 (16%)
Algo 3 Winner	32	8 (30%)	7 (26%)	4 (15%)	19 (70%)	1 (4%)	2 (9%)	1 (4%)	4 (17%)
Algo 1 Winner	32	12 (40%)	6 (20%)	6 (20%)	24 (80%)	2 (8%)	3 (12%)	0 (0%)	4 (15%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	32	12 (40%)	9 (30%)	7 (23%)	28 (93%)	1 (4%)	4 (15%)	0 (0%)	5 (19%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	32	12 (40%)	5 (17%)	6 (20%)	23 (77%)	3 (12%)	2 (8%)	0 (0%)	4 (15%)
Expert Consensus	32	9 (30%)	5 (17%)	9 (30%)	23 (77%)	2 (7%)	3 (10%)	0 (0%)	5 (17%)
ML Favorite (chalk)	32	15 (47%)	6 (19%)	6 (19%)	27 (84%)	—	—	—	—

WOX

AI Picks posts graded here: Thu 9/24 · Fri 9/25 · Sat 9/26 · Sun 9/27

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	37	9 (26%)	9 (26%)	5 (15%)	23 (68%)	4 (13%)	1 (3%)	1 (3%)	1 (3%)
Algo 3 Winner	37	9 (26%)	8 (24%)	3 (9%)	20 (59%)	3 (10%)	2 (7%)	0 (0%)	2 (7%)
Algo 1 Winner	37	7 (22%)	9 (28%)	3 (9%)	19 (59%)	3 (10%)	4 (13%)	0 (0%)	2 (7%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	37	6 (19%)	11 (34%)	4 (12%)	21 (66%)	1 (4%)	2 (8%)	0 (0%)	1 (4%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	37	6 (18%)	9 (27%)	4 (12%)	19 (58%)	3 (10%)	3 (10%)	1 (3%)	3 (10%)
AI Longshot	20	1 (6%)	2 (12%)	1 (6%)	4 (25%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	37	8 (24%)	8 (24%)	2 (6%)	18 (53%)	4 (12%)	1 (3%)	0 (0%)	1 (3%)
ML Favorite (chalk)	37	12 (32%)	12 (32%)	3 (8%)	27 (73%)	—	—	—	—

WRD

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Expert Consensus	30	7 (23%)	7 (23%)	4 (13%)	18 (60%)	1 (3%)	1 (3%)	0 (0%)	4 (13%)