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Saratoga Race Course – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the July 12, 2026 card

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SARATOGA RACE COURSE — SUNDAY, JULY 12, 2026

Race Day Overview

The Spa opens its Sunday card with fourteen races spread across dirt and turf, headlined by a pair of graded stakes that anchor the afternoon. The Bowling Green Stakes (Grade 2, $250,000) is the centerpiece turf marathon event, drawing elite long-distance grass runners, while the Caress Stakes (Grade 3) provides a sprint showcase for top fillies and mares on the turf. The remainder of the card offers maiden special weights, optional claimers, and straight claimers across a wide variety of distances and surfaces, giving handicappers ample opportunity to find value throughout the afternoon.

The Saratoga meet is now in its second week, and the competitive landscape is sharpening. Irad Ortiz Jr. is making his traditional march toward an eighth riding title at the Spa, though per recent reports he is giving rivals a head start this year. The jockey standings are tightly bunched, making today's mounts particularly meaningful in the title chase. Mike Maker, freshly slimmed down and energized, has a barn full of live horses scattered throughout this card. Chad Brown continues his annual dominance of the turf races at the Spa, and Todd Pletcher maintains his usual presence in key spots.

Notable news heading into Sunday: Bob Baffert is pointing Nysos toward the Whitney but has left the door open for a change of plans. Ole Crazy Bone is being pointed toward the Bowling Green by trainer Mike Maker, per barn notes from July 10. The Diana Stakes on July 18 is already drawing significant attention with Cathedral in the mix for trainer Kevin Philippart de Foy. On Saturday, Midnight Still (the Curlin colt) broke his maiden at the Spa to give trainer LaRose a first Spa winner, and on Friday the 26-1 shot Sippin Pretty upset the Victory Ride Stakes field, a reminder that Saratoga's early meet can produce wild results as horses find their footing in the Spa environment.

Weather and Track Conditions

Saratoga Springs, New York, is experiencing typical mid-July summer conditions. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-to-upper 80s Fahrenheit with moderate humidity, consistent with the region's pattern during the heart of the meet. No significant rainfall is forecast for Sunday, suggesting the main track should be rated fast or good at worst. The inner turf course, which has been in active use since the meet began, is expected to be rated firm to good. The outer turf, used for the longer routes including the Bowling Green, will also likely be rated firm given the dry stretch.

Track maintenance crews at Saratoga have been attentive to both surfaces through the first week-plus of the meet. The main track has been playing consistently, and NYRA's preparation staff has maintained both turf courses in excellent condition. Bettors should check the official track conditions at post time, as morning dew and warm temperatures can shift turf ratings from firm to good by mid-afternoon.

Track and Post Position Bias

On the Saratoga main track, early speed has shown a slight advantage through the opening days of the 2026 meet, particularly at sprint distances. The one-mile chute and the longer routes tend to favor horses that can settle in the two-path and make one run, as the deep stretch at Saratoga rewards closers who get a clean trip. At six furlongs, inside posts have a modest edge in terms of allowing speed horses to find the fence, but the advantage is not extreme.

On the Saratoga turf courses, the rail can be golden for horses with tactical speed at distances up to about a mile. At the longer turf routes, such as the mile-and-five-eighths of the Bowling Green, the pace tends to be honest and closers do well, but horses that can sit third or fourth on the fence without using excessive energy are ideally positioned. Post positions in the middle of the gate at a mile and five-eighths on turf are generally workable, though the extreme outside posts in large fields require wider travel early.

In today's turf maiden races and optional claimers, horses breaking from posts one through five have a slight edge statistically. The inner rail of the turf course has been left open in recent days to preserve the grass, which can affect how jockeys approach the first turn. Bettors should note whether the rail is open or closed at post time, as that detail shifts the bias meaningfully.

RACE 1 — Post (1:10 PM ET) — 1210f | D | S | Md Sp Wt | AON | Purse $115,000

This is a six-furlong maiden special weight on the main track for all-aged New York-breds. The $115,000 purse and the NYBRED restriction create a well-defined field of ten. Expect a contested pace with multiple speed horses in the field, setting up a potential closer's race down the long Saratoga stretch.

Race 1

Pace Analysis

The race projects as a contested speed duel through the opening fractions. Hammerin Henry (5), trained by Brad Cox and piloted by Irad Ortiz Jr., figures to be prominent early given Cox's typical style of sending horses with tactical speed. Cut Down The Nets (2) with John Velazquez may also press the pace. D I Wire (4) under Joel Rosario from the Kelly Breen barn could add further pressure. The projected fractions suggest a :22 and change opening quarter and somewhere around :45 to :46 flat at the half, which could set up a late run from a horse with a clean trip.

Key Contenders

Tinian (10), the 3-1 morning line favorite trained by Mark Casse and ridden by Jose Ortiz, is the class of this field based on his connections and presumed physical maturity. Casse is a sharp conditioner who spots horses effectively, and Jose Ortiz consistently delivers strong performances for top-shelf trainers. The outside post is a minor concern in a sprint, but Ortiz is skilled enough to angle over to a comfortable position without burning the horse out. Handicappers will be watching Tinian (10) closely as the probable favorite.

Hammerin Henry (5), from the Brad Cox barn with Irad Ortiz Jr. up, commands respect at 4-1. Cox is one of the premier trainers in North America and has shown a strong ability to develop young NYBRED horses at Saratoga. Hammerin Henry (5) draws the favorable middle post and will have every opportunity to dictate terms early or sit just off the pace. Ortiz Jr. is riding aggressively to rack up winners in the title chase, making this a horse to take seriously.

Secondary Choices

Cut Down The Nets (2), at 4-1 from the Amelia Green barn with Johnny Velazquez, represents a trainer-jockey combination that is always worth noting at Saratoga. Velazquez is a future Hall of Famer who knows the Spa's nuances better than almost anyone. Post 2 is an excellent draw at six furlongs. GREEN has shown ability to bring out capable NYBRED maidens, and at co-second choice odds, this horse offers fair value.

D I Wire (4), trained by Kelly Breen and ridden by Joel Rosario, is another live contender at 5-1. Breen has had solid success at the Spa with first-time starters and lightly raced horses, and Rosario is a consistently sharp rider who takes quality mounts seriously. Post 4 gives D I Wire (4) a comfortable setup to stalk the early pace and make a run in the stretch.

Longshots

Parea (8), at 8-1 for trainer Michael Maker and jockey Dylan Davis, deserves consideration. Maker has been noted as an active and engaged presence at this Saratoga meet, and his barn has been sending out live horses. Parea (8) will need to outrun the morning line, but in a field where the pace shapes up as contested, a stalker from the seven or eight post is not without a chance.

Zack The Grey (1), at 12-1 for Rudy Rodriguez and Ruben Silvera, draws the rail, which can be a useful post in a sprint at Saratoga if the horse gets away cleanly. Rodriguez is a competent conditioner, though this is a longer shot.

Mendel (7), the second Giddings trainee at 12-1 with Christopher Elliott, is a double-digit price that could be overlooked, but the trainer does not often win at this level with maiden firsters.

Buffalo Sober (9), at 12-1 for Jena Antonucci and Edgard Zayas, is a trainer-jockey combination capable of springing an upset, though the morning line suggests she is not their primary weapon today.

Loan Ranger (3), at 20-1 for Melanie Giddings and Reylu Gutierrez, faces a difficult task against these foes and is best used underneath in exotics only if at all.

Never Before (6), at 15-1 for Chris Englehart and Junior Alvarado, should be noted as a distant consideration. Englehart does win with maidens at the Spa, but 15-1 suggests a step down in quality from today's top contenders.

Selections

Win: Tinian (10) Place: Hammerin Henry (5) Show: Cut Down The Nets (2)

Betting Strategy: Single Tinian (10) on top in exactas and trifectas, using Hammerin Henry (5) and Cut Down The Nets (2) in second and third positions. Sprinkle D I Wire (4) in trifecta bottom slots. A win bet on Hammerin Henry (5) at 4-1 offers value if the Brad Cox-Irad Ortiz Jr. combination goes off at or above that price.

RACE 2 — Post (1:44 PM ET) — 2640f | t | AO | OClm 55000n1x | BUM | Purse $120,000

A mile-and-five-eighths optional claimer on the turf for older horses that have not won a claiming race at the $55,000 level more than once. The distance is extreme for this type, and the turf marathon conditions favor horses with proven stamina and comfort on grass. This is the condition that the Bowling Green Stakes will be run under for eligible horses, and several here have marathon pedigrees or recent form at extended turf distances.

Race 2

Pace Analysis

At a mile and five-eighths, the early fractions are typically modest, with the race not developing until the final half-mile. Expect a ground-saving trip to be at a premium given Saratoga's turf course configuration. Horses that can rate in the first five or six lengths off the early pace while saving ground on the rail are in the best position to win. The pace will likely be set by whichever horse breaks on top and is willing to lead, but true pace pressure at this distance is rare. The fractions should be slow enough to compress the field entering the stretch, setting up a tactical race.

Key Contenders

Kiamba (1), the 2-1 morning line favorite trained by Miguel Clement and ridden by Flavien Prat, is the expected key horse in this field. Clement is an excellent conditioner for turf marathons and has had repeated success at Saratoga with horses at extended grass distances. Prat, one of the top riders in the country, is a masterful tactician at staying out of trouble in large fields at long distances. Post 1 is ideal for a marathon turf race. Kiamba (1) is the horse to beat.

Scarlett's Halo (8), at 4-1 for Chad Brown and Tyler Gaffalione, is the primary threat. Brown dominates turf racing at Saratoga year after year, and any Brown horse in a turf optional claimer at the Spa must be taken very seriously. Gaffalione is an elite rider who handles turf horses exceptionally well, and Scarlett's Halo (8) figures to get a comfortable trip from post 8 in a strung-out marathon field.

Secondary Choices

Midnight Concerto (3), at 4-1 for Kenneth McPeek and Christopher Elliott, is a trainer known for placing horses effectively and a jockey who has been quietly productive at the Spa. Midnight Concerto (3) from post 3 has a workable position and should appreciate the marathon conditions if the horse has the requisite stamina.

Trading Strategy (7), at 6-1 for Chad Brown and Dylan Davis, is the secondary Brown entry. Brown's presence with two horses in a single race is a notable angle. Trading Strategy (7) may draw some exacta support as the second string from one of the meet's dominant trainers.

Longshots

Trail Of Gold (5), at 8-1 for David Donk and Johnny Velazquez, is a trainer-jockey angle worth noting. Donk has been a productive conditioner at the Spa, and Velazquez knows how to navigate the turf marathon fields. Trail Of Gold (5) offers some appeal at 8-1 if the horse has turf marathon form in the lines.

Pretty Tapit (6), at 6-1 for Joe Sharp and Luis Saez, is a trainer-jockey combination with national credentials. Sharp is a sharp conditioner who brings horses from multiple regions to Saratoga, and Saez is a top-tier rider. Pretty Tapit (6) is not to be dismissed at that price.

Malibu Smart (2), at 10-1 for Michael Maker and Irad Ortiz Jr., has the benefit of a top jockey and an engaged trainer. Maker's barn note about Ole Crazy Bone in the Bowling Green suggests the stable is turf-marathon oriented this week. Malibu Smart (2) at 10-1 might be worth a small exotic ticket.

Tricky Kitty (4), at 8-1 for Thomas Garner and Kendrick Carmouche, is a horse that could outrun the odds with a clean trip at the rail-adjacent post 4. Carmouche has had productive stretches at the Spa.

Higher Force (11), at 5-1 for Rudy Rodriguez and a TBA rider, is an interesting price. The TBA rider is a concern, as it may indicate a late jockey change that bettors should monitor. If a top rider picks up Higher Force (11), the price becomes compelling.

Soundbite (10), also with a TBA rider at 6-1 for Michelle Nevin, faces the same uncertainty. Watch for a rider to be named for both TBA mounts before post time.

Bernieandtherose (9), at 8-1 for Dominick Schettino and Katie Davis, is the longshot overlay in this race that is unlikely to threaten the top choices but could sneak into the exotics.

Selections

Win: Kiamba (1) Place: Scarlett's Halo (8) Show: Midnight Concerto (3)

Betting Strategy: Kiamba (1) on top of exactas with Scarlett's Halo (8) and Midnight Concerto (3). Use the Chad Brown double in the trifecta — Kiamba (1) / Scarlett's Halo (8) or Trading Strategy (7) / spread. Higher Force (11) at 5-1 is worth a small win bet if the TBA rider is resolved favorably before post time.

RACE 3 — Post (2:19 PM ET) — 1540f | D | C | Clm 20000n3l | BUM | Purse $43,000

A nine-and-a-half-furlong claiming race on the main track for older horses that have not won three or more races during their career. The $43,000 purse and $20,000 claiming price define this as a working-class race. Nine horses contest this route, and the pace analysis and class of recent runners will determine the outcome.

Race 3

Pace Analysis

At nine-and-a-half furlongs on the dirt, the fractions will be honest but not brutal. Expect a moderate early pace with the race coming down to which horse can sustain their run through the long Saratoga stretch. Horses that have recently been competitive at this distance will have an advantage over those stretching out significantly. Bellacose (4) and Belle Cherie (2) appear to be among the pace-setting candidates based on their connections, though the exact running style of each horse depends on their recent form patterns.

Key Contenders

Bellacose (4), the 2-1 morning line favorite trained by Jeremiah Englehart and ridden by Jamie Rodriguez, is the horse to beat in this field. Jeremiah Englehart is a productive claiming trainer at Saratoga, and the favoritism is well placed. Rodriguez has been showing improvement as a rider and has strong connections this meet. Bellacose (4) from post 4 is perfectly positioned to run a race-controlling trip.

Belle Cherie (2), at 3-1 for Michael Maker and Flavien Prat, offers the best chance of an upset. Maker's barn is active and sending out live horses throughout this card. Prat is one of the best riders at the meet, and a Maker-Prat combination in a claiming race is always worth upgrading. Belle Cherie (2) from post 2 has a favorable inside position for a route on the dirt.

Secondary Choices

Vino Frizzante (5), at 4-1 for Linda Rice and Manuel Franco, represents a trainer who has long been a fixture in New York claiming races. Rice knows how to spot horses at the right class level, and Franco is a top-caliber rider. Vino Frizzante (5) is a legitimate second-tier threat at a fair price.

Cararra (9), at 8-1 for Charlton Baker and Joel Rosario, gets a significant jockey upgrade in Rosario. When a horse at 8-1 draws a rider of Rosario's caliber in a $20,000 claimer, it is worth noting. Cararra (9) from the outside post will need a good trip but cannot be ignored.

Longshots

Moonlight Gal (3), at 8-1 for Chris Englehart and Ricardo Santana Jr., provides a second Englehart runner in the race alongside Bellacose (4). If the stable has a one-two punch here, Moonlight Gal (3) could be the secret weapon in the exotics.

Pocket Queens (6), at 8-1 for Ilkay Kantarmaci and Dylan Davis, is a longer shot that fills out the exotics.

That'sthefactjack (1), at 12-1 for Dominick Schettino and Edgard Zayas, is unlikely to threaten the top choices but could hit the board at a generous price if the pace collapses.

Calling An Audible (7), at 10-1 for Edward Barker and Katie Davis, is a distant consideration.

Moonlit Weekend (8), at 20-1 for Edmund Pringle and Reylu Gutierrez, is a betting toss at this price.

Selections

Win: Bellacose (4) Place: Belle Cherie (2) Show: Vino Frizzante (5)

Betting Strategy: Bellacose (4) over Belle Cherie (2) in exactas is the primary bet. In trifectas, use Bellacose (4) on top, Belle Cherie (2) and Vino Frizzante (5) in second, and spread the bottom slot to include Cararra (9) and Moonlight Gal (3). Small win bet on Cararra (9) at 8-1 if Rosario's presence signals confidence.

RACE 4 — Post (2:54 PM ET) — 1760f | t | S | Md Sp Wt | AON | Purse $115,000

A mile-and-one-eighth maiden special weight on the turf for New York-breds. Twelve horses contest this one-turn turf route, making pace and post position analysis especially important. The NYBRED restriction levels the playing field somewhat, but trainer quality and turf breeding will sort this out.

Race 4

Pace Analysis

A twelve-horse maiden turf field at a mile-and-one-eighth can produce chaotic early fractions if multiple speed horses break sharply. More often, these NYBRED turf maidens find a moderate early pace that compresses in the stretch. Horses with turf pedigrees and experience on the grass surface will outperform those with a single turf try. The race should develop into a stretch run where horses that settled in the first five or six lengths and avoided trouble will be best positioned. Showa (12), despite the outside post, figures to be the market leader.

Key Contenders

Showa (12), the 3-1 morning line co-favorite trained by Wesley Ward and ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr., is the most fascinating horse in the race. Ward is widely regarded as one of the best conditioners of turf sprinters and short-distance turf horses in North America, with an exceptional record of getting young horses ready for grass early. Ortiz Jr. takes the mount, a strong signal. The outside post (12) in a twelve-horse field on the turf is a concern, but Ward-Ortiz at 3-1 commands respect.

And The Runner Is (11), at 5-1 for Mark Casse and Irad Ortiz Jr., presents a scheduling conflict — Ortiz Jr. cannot ride both Showa (12) and And The Runner Is (11). The race card lists Ortiz Jr. on both, which suggests a jockey change will occur before post time. Casse is an excellent trainer with a proven record at Saratoga, and whichever top jockey picks up this mount will need to be monitored. At 5-1, And The Runner Is (11) has value if the rider situation is resolved with a top name.

Antonelli (10), at 4-1 for Miguel Clement and Manuel Franco, is a well-placed contender. Clement's expertise in developing turf horses is well established, and Franco is a quality rider who knows the Saratoga turf course intimately. Post 10 in a twelve-horse turf field is workable for an experienced handler, and Antonelli (10) at 4-1 offers solid value against the two morning-line co-favorites.

Secondary Choices

Berta's Stitch (5), at 4-1 for John Terranova and Dylan Davis, is another co-second choice alongside Antonelli (10). Terranova has been a consistent presence in the New York-bred ranks, and post 5 is a comfortable draw for a turf route. Berta's Stitch (5) could be a value play if Showa (12) attracts heavy wagering support.

Liam's Law (2), at 8-1 for Todd Pletcher and Flavien Prat, is the most intriguing price on the board. Pletcher and Prat are a formidable combination, and when Pletcher runs a horse in a NYBRED turf maiden, the horse often has a legitimate chance regardless of morning line. Post 2 is outstanding for a turf route. Liam's Law (2) at 8-1 with a Pletcher-Prat ticket is a significant play.

Longshots

Sanke (9), at 10-1 for Wesley Ward and Jose Ortiz, is the second Ward entry alongside Showa (12). If Jose Ortiz rides Sanke (9), that helps clarify the Ortiz Jr. situation. Ward with two runners in a NYBRED turf maiden is a significant stable angle.

Suspend (3), at 10-1 for William Mott and Junior Alvarado, should never be entirely dismissed. Mott is a Hall of Famer who rarely runs horses in spots where they are outclassed, and Alvarado provides a competent ride. Suspend (3) at 10-1 has minor longshot appeal.

Zodiac Warrior (4), at 6-1 for James Ryerson and Kendrick Carmouche, is priced to attract exotic play and has a straightforward post position.

Casino (7), at 12-1 for Mark Casse and John Velazquez, gets a Hall of Fame jockey in a NYBRED maiden, which is always worth a look in the exotics. Velazquez on a 12-1 Casse maiden on the turf is a classic Saratoga upset angle.

Real Goodbar (8), at 12-1 for Kenneth McPeek and Christopher Elliott, fills out the mid-range price horses.

Jolley (1), at 20-1 for James Bentley Begg and Reylu Gutierrez, and Surety (6), at 15-1 for George Weaver and Edgard Zayas, are longshots that can be used in wide trifecta and superfecta tickets.

Selections

Win: Showa (12) Place: Liam's Law (2) Show: Antonelli (10)

Betting Strategy: Showa (12) on top of exactas and trifectas. Liam's Law (2) is a prime value play for win and place. Key the Pletcher-Prat angle — if Liam's Law (2) goes off at 8-1 or higher, a win bet of modest size is justified. Monitor the And The Runner Is (11) jockey change closely; if a top rider picks up the mount, add it to trifecta tickets. In the trifecta, use Showa (12) / Liam's Law (2) / Antonelli (10) and Berta's Stitch (5) as the primary combination.

RACE 5 — Post (3:29 PM ET) — 1210f | T | M | Md 55000 | BUM | Purse $62,000

A six-furlong turf maiden race for older horses with a $55,000 claiming tag. Fourteen horses contest this moderately priced maiden claimer on the grass, making it one of the most challenging race to handicap on the card. The large field and the modest claiming price create a wide-open event with plenty of exotics potential.

Race 5

Pace Analysis

Fourteen horses at six furlongs on the turf will produce a bustling break with multiple speed horses. The Saratoga inner turf at six furlongs tends to favor horses that can get a ground-saving trip just behind the early pace. Expect the early fractions to be brisk for a turf sprint, and the horses that settle in the pocket behind the speed will be best positioned. Lots Of Kisses (9) and Pulling Threads (2) figure to be prominent factors in the betting, with R P Byrne (6) and Americanexpression (7) also drawing attention.

Key Contenders

Lots Of Kisses (9), the 4-1 morning line favorite trained by Michael Maker and ridden by Tyler Gaffalione, is positioned as the race's top choice. Maker's barn has been active and productive throughout this early meet, and Gaffalione is one of the elite riders at Saratoga. Post 9 in a fourteen-horse turf sprint is manageable for a tactically minded rider, and Gaffalione excels at finding a clean path on the turf. Lots Of Kisses (9) is the horse to beat.

Pulling Threads (2), at 6-1 for Linda Rice and Irad Ortiz Jr., offers a compelling alternative. Rice is a veteran New York conditioner who handles maiden claimers with skill, and having Irad Ortiz Jr. in the irons significantly upgrades this horse's prospects. Post 2 is an excellent draw for a turf sprint. Pulling Threads (2) at 6-1 with Ortiz Jr. is a live contender.

Secondary Choices

R P Byrne (6), at 5-1 for Wesley Ward and Jamie Rodriguez, carries the Ward stamp of approval for grass. Ward's ability to prepare turf sprinters from a young age is unmatched, and even in a maiden claimer, a Ward horse at five furlongs or six furlongs on the turf commands respect. Post 6 is solid, and at 5-1, R P Byrne (6) offers fair value.

Americanexpression (7), at 6-1 for Philip Antonacci and Ricardo Santana Jr., is a horse that will draw attention from handicappers given the competitive morning line odds and the quality of the rider. Santana Jr. is consistently sharp at the Spa.

Longshots

American Miss (13), at 8-1 for Linda Rice and Jose Ortiz, gives Rice a second runner with a top jockey. When a trainer sends out two horses in the same race with riders of the caliber of Ortiz Jr. and Jose Ortiz, it is worth noting which one the barn expects to run best. American Miss (13) at 8-1 could be the stable's surprise runner.

Immortal Poet (8), at 6-1 for Robert Falcone Jr. and Manuel Franco, is priced attractively. Franco has been a productive rider throughout the meet and deserves notice.

Undercover Agent (1), at 8-1 for Mark Casse and Dylan Davis, benefits from post 1 on the turf, which is one of the best draws in a turf sprint. Casse's stable consistently places horses in spots where they can win, and the inside post is a tactical advantage.

Grace Of Monaco (3), at 12-1 for Danny Gargan and Flavien Prat, has the third-ranked rider in the nation aboard and a trainer who knows the Spa. At 12-1, Grace Of Monaco (3) is a legitimate exotic contender.

Solaia (4), at 12-1 for Rob Atras and Kendrick Carmouche, and Tune Timer (5), at 12-1 for Bruce Levine and Ruben Silvera, are longer shots that can be used in wide trifecta bottoms.

Amended Dreamer (12), at 15-1 for Jena Antonucci and Edgard Zayas, Credit Risk (14), at 12-1 for Lisa Bartkowski and Jamie Rodriguez, and ILENAS KAZ WAY (10), at 20-1 for Dimitrios Synnefias and Dexter Haddock, round out the field as distant longshots for deep exotics only.

Miel Et Citron (11), at 50-1 for Douglas Seyler and S.X. Bridgmohan, is a throwout at that price in a maiden claimer.

Selections

Win: Lots Of Kisses (9) Place: Pulling Threads (2) Show: R P Byrne (6)

Betting Strategy: The $0.50 trifecta box of Lots Of Kisses (9), Pulling Threads (2), and R P Byrne (6) is the primary exotic play. Undercover Agent (1) at 8-1 from the rail on the turf is a strong overlay for exacta inclusion beneath Lots Of Kisses (9). The large field creates trifecta value — consider using Lots Of Kisses (9) / Pulling Threads (2), R P Byrne (6), Americanexpression (7) / wider spread including American Miss (13), Immortal Poet (8), and Grace Of Monaco (3).

RACE 6 — Post (4:04 PM ET) — 1430f | D | AO | OClm 80000n2x | BUM | Purse $125,000

This is the richest non-stakes race on the Sunday card — a nine-furlong optional claimer at $80,000 for older horses that have not won two or more claiming races at this level. Seven horses contest the route, making it one of the smallest and most digestible fields of the day. The $125,000 purse attracts quality older horses that are competitive at the top of the claiming ranks.

Race 6

Pace Analysis

With seven horses at nine furlongs on the dirt, the pace scenario is manageable to read. Alyeska (7), the 2-1 morning line favorite for Chad Brown and Jose Ortiz, will set the tactical tone based on her running style. She's A Gamer (1) for Kelly Breen and Joel Rosario may press or stalk, while Limes Don't Lie (3) and Strong State (4) both figure to race within easy striking distance of the pace. The fractions should be moderate, setting up a stretch duel between multiple well-matched horses.

Key Contenders

Alyeska (7), the 2-1 morning line favorite trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Jose Ortiz, is the clear class horse in this spot based on connections alone. Brown's unparalleled record in New York optional claimers on the dirt is well documented, and Jose Ortiz is the perfect partner for a horse in this kind of race. Post 7 in a seven-horse field on the dirt means Alyeska (7) will be widest at the break but will have a clear run throughout. At 2-1, this horse may be a single in pick sequences.

Limes Don't Lie (3), at 4-1 for Chad Brown and Dylan Davis, is the Brown second entry. Having two horses in a seven-horse field gives Brown an enormous tactical advantage — his riders can work together to control the pace and positioning. Limes Don't Lie (3) at 4-1 offers better odds than Alyeska (7) and deserves consideration as a win play in its own right.

Secondary Choices

Strong State (4), at 4-1 for Albert Stall Jr. and Flavien Prat, is a trainer-jockey combination with genuine national class. Stall runs a well-organized stable from the Gulf Coast and regularly brings horses north for spots like this one. Prat as jockey is never a negative, and post 4 is the ideal middle draw in a nine-furlong route.

She's A Gamer (1), at 5-1 for Kelly Breen and Joel Rosario, opens from the rail with one of the meet's top jockeys. Breen and Rosario are a strong combination in optional claimers, and She's A Gamer (1) at 5-1 is worth including in all exotics.

Longshots

The Big Calhouna (6), at 6-1 for Linda Rice and Manuel Franco, could surprise in a field this size. Rice rarely runs a horse in a spot without a reasonable chance, and post 6 with Franco is workable. At 6-1, The Big Calhouna (6) deserves a look in trifectas.

Sing A Little Song (5), at 10-1 for Rob Atras and Irad Ortiz Jr., gets a significant rider upgrade in Ortiz Jr. The jockey riding a 10-1 shot for Atras while Ortiz Jr. also has a mount in the title chase is worth watching. If Ortiz Jr. is taking a 10-1 shot seriously, Sing A Little Song (5) could hit the board.

Ultimate Authority (2), at 10-1 for Saffie Joseph Jr. and Tyler Gaffalione, rounds out the field with a trainer known for sharp conditioning and a top-tier jockey. Ultimate Authority (2) at 10-1 is not without a chance in a seven-horse field.

Selections

Win: Alyeska (7) Place: Strong State (4) Show: Limes Don't Lie (3)

Betting Strategy: Alyeska (7) is a viable single in the Pick 4 and Pick 5 sequences. The Brown exacta of Alyeska (7) over Limes Don't Lie (3) is the primary play. Strong State (4) at 4-1 with the Stall-Prat combination is worth a win bet. Trifecta: Alyeska (7) / Strong State (4), Limes Don't Lie (3), She's A Gamer (1) / She's A Gamer (1), The Big Calhouna (6), Sing A Little Song (5).

RACE 7 — Post (4:39 PM ET) — 1210f | D | S | Md Sp Wt | AON | Purse $115,000

A six-furlong maiden special weight on the dirt for New York-breds, this eleven-horse field features some well-connected first-time starters and lightly raced horses. The sprint distance and NYBRED condition attract barns that develop locally bred horses, and the field has several quality contenders.

Race 7

Pace Analysis

Five Grand (6), the 2-1 morning line favorite, will likely dictate terms in this sprint. With Saratoga Tea (3) and Road Show (8) also in the field at shared 4-1 odds, the pace could develop into an early duel that sets up for a late runner. Banker Bull (1) may also factor early from the rail position for trainer Amelia Green. The projected fractions should be brisk for a NYBRED sprint, with the stretch run determining the outcome.

Key Contenders

Five Grand (6), the 2-1 morning line favorite trained by George Weaver and ridden by Flavien Prat, is the clear morning line horse to beat. Weaver is an established New York conditioner with a strong record at Saratoga, and Prat is the leading rider at the meet based on current form. Five Grand (6) from post 6 is well drawn to sit just off early pace or go to the front, and at 2-1, this horse carries significant public confidence.

Saratoga Tea (3), at 4-1 for Rodolphe Brisset and Ricardo Santana Jr., has a name tailor-made for this track and a trainer who has built a solid reputation at the Spa. Brisset has been developing his stable over multiple Saratoga meets, and Santana Jr. is one of the better sprint riders in the country. Post 3 is a favorable draw. Saratoga Tea (3) at 4-1 is the top threat to Five Grand (6).

Secondary Choices

Road Show (8), at 4-1 for Mark Casse and Jose Ortiz, is another horse with top-shelf connections. Casse runs a major operation at Saratoga every summer, and Jose Ortiz is a proven winner at this track. Road Show (8) from post 8 will need to find a spot in the stretch run, but Ortiz has the skill to navigate a NYBRED sprint with ease.

Banker Bull (1), at 6-1 for Amelia Green and Jamie Rodriguez, draws the rail in a sprint — an ideal position if the horse breaks cleanly. Green has been successful with young NYBRED horses at the Spa, and the rail draw is a tangible advantage at six furlongs.

Longshots

Honest Owen (2), at 8-1 for Kelly Breen and Joel Rosario, gets a top jockey for a trainer with sprint-race credentials. Breen-Rosario is a combination that frequently finds the winner's circle at the Spa. Honest Owen (2) from post 2 is a contender to include in exactas and trifectas.

Silver Knight (7), at 8-1 for Melanie Giddings and Junior Alvarado, is a second Giddings entry (alongside the unrelated Giddings-trained Roadhouse Warrior (11)). Alvarado as the jockey on a Giddings horse suggests this is the stable's preferred runner.

Ninuccio (5), at 15-1 for Mark Hennig and John Velazquez, draws the Hall of Fame jockey in a NYBRED maiden. Velazquez on a 15-1 shot has historically been worth including in exotic tickets at Saratoga. Ninuccio (5) is a classic Velazquez overlay angle.

Sweet Redemption (4), at 12-1 for James Ryerson and Christopher Elliott, Professor Plum (9), at 15-1 for Horacio De Paz and Manuel Franco, and Roadhouse Warrior (11), at 15-1 for Melanie Giddings and S.X. Bridgmohan, are secondary longshots for trifecta and superfecta use.

Midnight Raider (10), at 30-1 for Mitchell Friedman and Ruben Silvera, is a near-throwout at that price.

Selections

Win: Five Grand (6) Place: Saratoga Tea (3) Show: Road Show (8)

Betting Strategy: Five Grand (6) on top of all exactas and trifectas. Saratoga Tea (3) and Road Show (8) as the primary exacta bottom pair. Include Honest Owen (2) and Banker Bull (1) in trifectas. The Velazquez overlay angle — a small win bet on Ninuccio (5) — is the classic Saratoga longshot play.

RACE 8 — Post (5:14 PM ET) — 1760f | t | CO | OClm 45000 | BUN | Purse $78,000

A mile-and-one-eighth optional claimer on the turf for older horses, restricted to New York-breds. Sixteen horses make this the largest field of the day, and the size alone guarantees exotic value. Golden Symphony (15) is the 2-1 morning line favorite, and the Chad Brown-Irad Ortiz Jr. combination with High Beta (10) at 4-1 adds another dimension to this wide-open event.

Race 8

Pace Analysis

Sixteen horses at a mile and one-eighth on the turf for NYBREDS means a chaotic early break and a compressed field through the first turn. The pace will likely be moderate as multiple horses sort out their positions, with the race not truly developing until midway on the far turn. Horses that can save ground along the rail or in the second path without using excessive early energy are the ones to focus on. Post position bias is relevant in a sixteen-horse field, with inside posts offering a clear advantage.

Key Contenders

Golden Symphony (15), the 2-1 morning line favorite for Linda Rice and Manuel Franco, carries the public's confidence despite the outside post in a sixteen-horse field. Rice is a perennial producer in NYBRED optional claiming races, and Franco is a capable rider in grass routes. The post concern is real, but at 2-1, the market is clearly confident in this horse's ability.

High Beta (10), at 4-1 for Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz Jr., is the most dangerous horse in the race based on trainer-jockey combination. Brown-Ortiz Jr. in any turf optional claimer at Saratoga is a combination that demands respect. Post 10 in a sixteen-horse turf field is workable for a tactically ridden horse, and Ortiz Jr. will find a spot. High Beta (10) at 4-1 is the top threat.

Secondary Choices

City Of Oscars (11), at 4-1 for Mark Casse and Jose Ortiz, gets strong connections and a jockey who is fired up to win at the Spa. Casse runs a first-rate operation, and Jose Ortiz has been consistently sharp throughout the meet. City Of Oscars (11) from post 11 requires a wide trip but has the talent to overcome it.

Pineapple Man (16), at 4-1 for Michelle Nevin and a TBA rider, has a competitive morning line but the TBA rider is a significant concern. Monitor this horse's jockey assignment. If a top rider picks up Pineapple Man (16), the price is excellent.

Longshots

Highlands Way (6), at 6-1 for Todd Pletcher and Flavien Prat, is the most interesting price on the board. Pletcher-Prat in a NYBRED turf optional claimer is never to be ignored, and post 6 in a sixteen-horse field is a relatively favorable inside draw. Highlands Way (6) at 6-1 could be the best value on the entire card.

The Paddock Pastor (12), at 8-1 for Amelia Green and Jamie Rodriguez, gives a productive trainer a shot with an inside-middle post that could allow for a ground-saving trip.

Gene And Jude (3), at 8-1 for Michael Maker and Ricardo Santana Jr., brings the Maker barn's turf credentials into play with a very favorable inside post. Maker's engagement at this meet, combined with post 3, makes Gene And Jude (3) an interesting longer shot.

Remi's Moon (4), at 6-1 for Joe Sharp and Manuel Franco, also gets a competitive morning line from a favorable post and a trainer with national class.

Hard Circle (8), at 10-1 for Mertkan Kantarmaci and Tyler Gaffalione, benefits from Gaffalione's turf expertise. Gaffalione in a NYBRED turf optional claimer with a competitive morning line at a post that allows for a ground-saving trip is worth including in exotic tickets.

Freaky (9), at 10-1 for Raymond Handal and Dylan Davis, Blast Furnace (14), at 10-1 for Michael Maker and Junior Alvarado, and Boltage (13), at 15-1 for David Jacobson and Tyler Gaffalione (listed with two Gaffalione mounts — monitor for a jockey change), round out the competitive mid-range prices.

Mo Kreesa (1), at 15-1 for Mark Hennig and John Velazquez, brings the Velazquez overlay angle again. Rail post, Hall of Fame jockey, and a trainer who knows how to spot horses in turf routes. Rabaja (2), at 20-1 for Harold James Bond and Edgard Zayas, Alexis Zorba (5), at 20-1 for Bruce Brown and Kendrick Carmouche, and Outtawaterbury (7), at 30-1 for David Donk and Katie Davis, are distant longshots for superfecta use.

Selections

Win: High Beta (10) Place: Golden Symphony (15) Show: Highlands Way (6)

Betting Strategy: The size of this field creates outstanding exotic value. Use High Beta (10) and Golden Symphony (15) as the key horses in the exacta. Highlands Way (6) at 6-1 for Pletcher-Prat is a prime value play in win-place. Trifecta key: High Beta (10) / Golden Symphony (15), City Of Oscars (11), Highlands Way (6) / spread widely through the inside posts including Gene And Jude (3), Remi's Moon (4), and Hard Circle (8). Superfecta tickets are reasonable given the deep payouts likely in a sixteen-horse field.

RACE 9 — Post (5:49 PM ET) — 1210f | T | M | Md 50000 | BUN | Purse $56,000

The finale is a six-furlong turf maiden race for New York-breds with a $50,000 claiming tag, featuring fourteen horses. Speightful Storm (13) opens as the 2-1 morning line favorite. This NYBRED turf maiden closer at the end of the card is a high-exotics-value event given the field size and the modest maiden claiming conditions.

Race 9

Pace Analysis

Fourteen horses at six furlongs on the turf will again produce a busy early break. Horses that can settle in the second path behind early speed will be favored. Speightful Storm (13) from the outside is expected to rate off the pace, which suits the nature of how turf sprint fields develop on the Saratoga grass. The early fractions should be honest, and the final sixteenth will separate the horses.

Key Contenders

Speightful Storm (13), the 2-1 morning line favorite trained by Harold James Bond and ridden by Edgard Zayas, enters as the public choice. Bond conditions horses for the turf effectively, and Zayas has been one of the more productive riders at this early Saratoga meet. The outside post (13) is a concern in a fourteen-horse turf sprint, but at 2-1, the market endorses Speightful Storm (13) as the class of the field.

Mykonos (2), at 4-1 for Michael Maker and Flavien Prat, gets the Maker-Prat combination with a favorable inside post draw. Maker's barn has been highlighted throughout this card as productive and engaged, and Prat on any Maker horse in a turf sprint maiden deserves serious respect. Mykonos (2) from post 2 is the top threat.

Secondary Choices

Twenty One Red (11), at 4-1 for George Weaver and Manuel Franco, is well priced given Weaver's track record at the Spa and Franco's consistent performances. Post 11 in a fourteen-horse turf field is moderate, and if Twenty One Red (11) can find a clean outside lane in the stretch, the 4-1 price is fair value.

Down The Field (5), at 6-1 for Linda Rice and Irad Ortiz Jr., brings together the Rice barn's New York-bred expertise and a champion jockey who is motivated to accumulate winners. Rice with Ortiz Jr. in a NYBRED turf maiden closer is a legitimate combination. Post 5 is well placed.

Longshots

Boom Shocka Boom (4), at 6-1 for Wesley Ward and Jamie Rodriguez, carries the Ward turf pedigree angle. Ward at six furlongs on the turf is always a consideration, and post 4 is excellent. Boom Shocka Boom (4) at 6-1 from post 4 with Ward's preparation is a value play in win and exacta.

Golden Joker (6), at 8-1 for Miguel Clement and Reylu Gutierrez, is a Clement trainee on the turf, which is always meaningful. Post 6 is workable. Golden Joker (6) at 8-1 is worth including in trifectas.

Until Last Call (1), at 8-1 for James Ryerson and Ruben Silvera, takes the rail post in a turf sprint — a genuine tactical advantage if the horse breaks cleanly. Until Last Call (1) at 8-1 with rail post is a classic overlay spot.

Eye On The Ball (10), at 8-1 for Raymond Handal and Dylan Davis, is a competitive morning line horse from a competent trainer. Davis has been solid throughout the meet.

Thirsted (12), at 12-1 for Michael Simone and Kendrick Carmouche, and True Adirondacker (14), at 12-1 for Wayne Potts and Christopher Elliott, are secondary longshots for trifecta use.

Out Of The Fog (7), at 15-1 for Jena Antonucci and Ricardo Santana Jr., Pilot Knob (3), at 15-1 for Bruce Brown and Edgard Zayas, and Charlie My Boy (9), at 30-1 for Paul Barrow and Christopher Elliott, are distant longshots. Talwyn (8), at 30-1 for Carlos Figueroa and Katie Davis, is a throwout.

Selections

Win: Speightful Storm (13) Place: Mykonos (2) Show: Boom Shocka Boom (4)

Betting Strategy: Mykonos (2) at 4-1 with the Maker-Prat combination from post 2 is the best value play in this race. Boom Shocka Boom (4) at 6-1 from Ward with post 4 is the secondary value bet. Exacta: Speightful Storm (13) and Mykonos (2) in both combinations. Trifecta: Use all three of the top selections and spread to Until Last Call (1), Down The Field (5), Twenty One Red (11), and Golden Joker (6) in the bottom position.

Jockey Notes and Insights

Irad Ortiz Jr. enters Sunday having already established himself as the meet's most active top rider, though per recent reports he is giving rivals a head start this year due to limited riding in the opening days. Today's card gives him multiple opportunities to put distance between himself and the competition. His mounts include Hammerin Henry (5) in Race 1, And The Runner Is (11) or Showa (12) in Race 4 (monitor for conflict resolution), Pulling Threads (2) in Race 5, High Beta (10) in Race 8, and Down The Field (5) in Race 9. Ortiz Jr. is notably active on both dirt and turf, reflecting his all-around skill set.

Flavien Prat continues to ride at an elite level throughout the meet. His book today includes Kiamba (1) in Race 2, Belle Cherie (2) in Race 3, Liam's Law (2) in Race 4, Grace Of Monaco (3) in Race 5, Strong State (4) in Race 6, Five Grand (6) in Race 7, Highlands Way (6) in Race 8, and Mykonos (2) in Race 9. Prat's full book across multiple surfaces and distance categories makes him arguably the most important rider to track today.

Jose Ortiz provides a complementary threat in the title race. His mounts include Tinian (10) in Race 1, Antonelli (10) in Race 4, American Miss (13) in Race 5, Alyeska (7) in Race 6, Road Show (8) in Race 7, City Of Oscars (11) in Race 8, and — if the Race 4 conflict is resolved — possibly Sanke (9) for Wesley Ward. Jose Ortiz on Chad Brown horses (ALYESKA in Race 6) is particularly noteworthy.

Joel Rosario is quietly productive throughout this card with mounts on D I Wire (4) in Race 1, She's A Gamer (1) in Race 6, Honest Owen (2) in Race 7, and Cararra (9) in Race 3. Rosario brings consistent quality to every mount.

Tyler Gaffalione shows up on Scarlett's Halo (8) in Race 2, Lots Of Kisses (9) in Race 5, Hard Circle (8) in Race 8, and Boltage (13) in Race 8. The double booking in Race 8 should be monitored — if Gaffalione is on one, another rider will be named for the other.

John Velazquez, despite winding down his Hall of Fame career, continues to attract quality mounts. His appearances on Cut Down The Nets (2) in Race 1, Trail Of Gold (5) in Race 2, Casino (7) in Race 4, Ninuccio (5) in Race 7, and Mo Kreesa (1) in Race 8 continue to offer the classic Saratoga overlay angle that has made him legendary at the Spa.

Manuel Franco is the quiet standout of the meet's second tier, with mounts throughout the card that include Antonelli (10) in Race 4, Immortal Poet (8) in Race 5, The Big Calhouna (6) in Race 6, Professor Plum (9) in Race 7, Remi's Moon (4) in Race 8, Golden Symphony (15) in Race 8, and Twenty One Red (11) in Race 9. Franco's volume of top mounts makes him one of the meet's most productive riders by pure opportunity.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Chad Brown's dominance of the Saratoga turf meet is well established. He enters Sunday with multiple entries on the turf card, including Trading Strategy (7) and Scarlett's Halo (8) in Race 2, Limes Don't Lie (3) and Alyeska (7) in Race 6, and High Beta (10) in Race 8. Brown rarely runs horses in spots they cannot win, and his horses should be respected regardless of odds. His multiple entries in single races are a tactical advantage, not a dilution of quality.

Michael Maker has been highlighted by multiple outlets as an energized and productive presence at this Saratoga meet, having shed sixty pounds in the offseason. His entries today span multiple races and surfaces, including Parea (8) in Race 1, Malibu Smart (2) in Race 2, Belle Cherie (2) in Race 3, Lots Of Kisses (9) in Race 5, Gene And Jude (3) in Race 8, Blast Furnace (14) in Race 8, and Mykonos (2) in Race 9. The barn note about Ole Crazy Bone targeting the Bowling Green Stakes suggests Maker is in full competitive mode for the meet's premier turf marathon events.

Mark Casse operates a large string at Saratoga and has multiple runners spread across today's card. Tinian (10) in Race 1, And The Runner Is (11) in Race 4, Casino (7) in Race 4, Undercover Agent (1) in Race 5, Road Show (8) in Race 7, and City Of Oscars (11) in Race 8 represent a full day's work for the Casse barn. Casse's ability to win with maiden types and older horses in claiming conditions makes him a constant threat.

Todd Pletcher's entries are fewer but well-placed. Liam's Law (2) in Race 4 with Flavien Prat at 8-1 is his most intriguing play, while Highlands Way (6) in Race 8 at 6-1 for Prat represents another compelling value opportunity.

Wesley Ward brings his renowned turf breeding expertise with Showa (12) and Sanke (9) in Race 4, R P Byrne (6) in Race 5, and Boom Shocka Boom (4) in Race 9. Ward's two-horse entries in Race 4 are particularly interesting from a stable strategy standpoint.

Linda Rice's presence spans nearly every race on the card with Vino Frizzante (5) in Race 3, Pulling Threads (2) and American Miss (13) in Race 5, The Big Calhouna (6) in Race 6, Down The Field (5) in Race 9, and Golden Symphony (15) in Race 8. Rice is one of the most active claiming trainers in New York and knows how to place horses effectively at Saratoga.

Kelly Breen, with She's A Gamer (1) in Race 6, D I Wire (4) in Race 1, and Honest Owen (2) in Race 7, is a consistent presence at the Spa with competitive horses. Breen's record with optional claimers and sprint horses is solid.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The best single value bet on today's card is Liam's Law (2) at 8-1 in Race 4. The combination of Todd Pletcher training, Flavien Prat riding, and a favorable post 2 draw in a NYBRED turf maiden at a mile and one-eighth creates a situation where the morning line appears generous. Pletcher-Prat in any New York turf maiden is historically productive, and 8-1 is a price that offers meaningful return.

The second-best value bet is Highlands Way (6) at 6-1 in Race 8 for Todd Pletcher and Flavien Prat. In a sixteen-horse field, a Pletcher horse from post 6 with Prat aboard at 6-1 is a legitimate overlay. The inside-middle post in a large turf field is among the best draws, and the Pletcher-Prat combination rarely enters a race without a genuine chance.

Boom Shocka Boom (4) at 6-1 in Race 9 from Wesley Ward and post 4 is the top value play in the finale. Ward's turf sprinter at an honest price from an inside post in a NYBRED turf maiden is the type of bet that should be played to win and used extensively in exactas and trifectas.

For the Pick 4 spanning Races 6 through 9, the structure is compelling. Alyeska (7) is a potential single in Race 6, given Chad Brown-Jose Ortiz at 2-1. High Beta (10) in Race 8 at 4-1 is a reasonable single or key. The Pick 4 using Alyeska (7) single / Five Grand (6) and Saratoga Tea (3) in Race 7 / High Beta (10) and Golden Symphony (15) in Race 8 / Speightful Storm (13) and Mykonos (2) in Race 9 is a structured approach that keeps ticket costs manageable while covering the most likely combinations.

For the Pick 5 beginning in Race 5, the structure could look like this: Lots Of Kisses (9) and R P Byrne (6) in Race 5 / Alyeska (7) single in Race 6 / Five Grand (6) and Saratoga Tea (3) in Race 7 / High Beta (10) and Golden Symphony (15) in Race 8 / Speightful Storm (13) and Mykonos (2) in Race 9. At $0.50 base, this creates a sixteen-combination ticket at $8 — an efficient and aggressive structure for the back half of the card.

The Race 8 trifecta in a sixteen-horse field deserves its own focus. With multiple horses at 4-1 and a 2-1 favorite carrying significant public support, the trifecta could pay handsomely. Key High Beta (10) on top, spread Golden Symphony (15) and City Of Oscars (11) in second, and use a wide bottom including Highlands Way (6), Gene And Jude (3), Remi's Moon (4), The Paddock Pastor (12), and Hard Circle (8). A sixteen-horse trifecta with a key on top and a spread is one of the best structural bets in horse racing.

Monitor all TBA jockey assignments — specifically on Soundbite (10) and Higher Force (11) in Race 2 and Pineapple Man (16) in Race 8 — before committing to exotic tickets in those races. A top-name jockey pickup on any of these horses at their current morning line prices would represent significant value.

Before wagering, check the Latest Race Scratches, Changes, and Conditions post for any last-minute scratches or race changes.


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