Tip Sheet – Analysis of Expert Picks and Statistical Consensus for Presque Isle Downs September 16, 2025.

TwinSpires

Race 1: 1st (5) I’m Heading East, 2nd (2) Half Birthday
Race 2: 1st (4) Lookin Like Lucky, 2nd (2) Gift Exchange, 3rd (6) Michaelshatrick
Race 3: 1st (2) Miss Moxee, 2nd (1) Lucky Number Three, 3rd (4) King of Swords
Race 4: 1st (3) La Girvina, 2nd (2) Curlin’s Girl
Race 5: 1st (3) Wonder Wave, 2nd (4) Grosse Ile, 3rd (1) Lena Kahlena
Race 6: 1st (3) Midnight Ambition, 2nd (5) The Doorman, 3rd (1) Burnin Turf
Race 7: 1st (2) On Reserve, 2nd (7) Mrs. Manicotti, 3rd (6) Sip’n’ Speed
Race 8: 1st (4) Channel Me In, 2nd (1) Lucy Playa, 3rd (7) Sticky Bun

Racenet

Race 1: 1st (1) Red Wren, 2nd (2) Half Birthday, 3rd (3) Queen Anna T, 4th (5) I’m Heading East
Race 2: 1st (4) Lookin Like Lucky, 2nd (3) Warrior’s Notion, 3rd (1) Hundred Proof, 4th (2) Gift Exchange
Race 3: 1st (3) Crimson Red, 2nd (1) Lucky Number Three, 3rd (2) Miss Moxee, 4th (4) King of Swords
Race 4: 1st (1) Keepthedreamalive, 2nd (3) La Girvina, 3rd (2) Curlin’s Girl, 4th (4) Dorotea Dream
Race 5: 1st (3) Wonder Wave, 2nd (4) Grosse Ile, 3rd (6) Raven Dance, 4th (5) Loop of Henle
Race 6: 1st (1) Burnin Turf, 2nd (3) Midnight Ambition, 3rd (6) Mackenzie’s Novva, 4th (5) The Doorman
Race 7: 1st (2) On Reserve, 2nd (7) Mrs. Manicotti, 3rd (3) Triple Secret, 4th (4) Kanazawa
Race 8: 1st (4) Channel Me In, 2nd (6) Ocean Rain, 3rd (5) Slainte Mhath, 4th (7) Summer Forever

Racing Dudes

Race 1: (2) Half Birthday
Race 2: (4) Lookin Like Lucky
Race 3: (1) Lucky Number Three
Race 4: (3) La Girvina
Race 5: (3) Wonder Wave
Race 6: (1) Burnin Turf
Race 7: (7) Mrs. Manicotti
Race 8: (1) Lucy Playa

FanDuel

Race 1: 1st (5) I’m Heading East, 2nd (2) Half Birthday, 2nd (3) Queen Anna T
Race 2: 1st (3) Warrior’s Notion, 2nd (4) Lookin Like Lucky, 3rd (6) Michaelshatrick
Race 3: 1st (2) Miss Moxee, 2nd (3) Crimson Red, 2nd (4) King of Swords
Race 4: 1st (2) Curlin’s Girl, 2nd (3) La Girvina, 3rd (5) Genevieve’s Z Va
Race 5: 1st (6) Raven Dance, 2nd (3) Wonder Wave, 3rd (2) Thehillonwoodside
Race 6: 1st (1) Burnin Turf, 2nd (5) The Doorman, 3rd (2) Ferrari Kid
Race 7: 1st (5) Bam Bam, 2nd (2) On Reserve, 3rd (6) Sip’n’ Speed
Race 8: 1st (4) Channel Me In, 1st (6) Ocean Rain, 2nd (5) Slainte Mhath

At The Races

Race 1: Top Tip (2) Half Birthday, Watch out for (5) I’m Heading East
Race 2: Top Tip (3) Warrior’s Notion, Watch out for (4) Lookin Like Lucky
Race 3: Top Tip (3) Crimson Red, Watch out for (2) Miss Moxee
Race 4: Top Tip (1) Keepthedreamalive, Watch out for (2) Curlin’s Girl
Race 5: Top Tip (3) Wonder Wave, Watch out for (4) Grosse Ile
Race 6: Top Tip (1) Burnin Turf, Watch out for (3) Midnight Ambition
Race 7: Top Tip (4) Kanazawa, Watch out for (5) Bam Bam
Race 8: Top Tip (1) Lucy Playa, Watch out for (4) Channel Me In

Consensus Picks Based on Expert Analysis

Race 1 – Claiming

Consensus Top Pick: (2) Half Birthday – Selected by 4 of 5 sources as top contender
Strong Contender: (5) I’m Heading East – Top pick for TwinSpires and FanDuel
Also Consider: (3) Queen Anna T, (1) Red Wren

Race 2 – Maiden Claiming

Consensus Top Pick: (4) Lookin Like Lucky – Top pick for 3 sources, strong across all
Strong Contender: (3) Warrior’s Notion – Top pick for FanDuel and At The Races
Also Consider: (6) Michaelshatrick, (2) Gift Exchange

Race 3 – Maiden Claiming

Split Consensus: (2) Miss Moxee vs (3) Crimson Red – Both strongly supported
Value Pick: (1) Lucky Number Three – Consistent across multiple sources
Also Consider: (4) King of Swords

Race 4 – Allowance Optional Claiming

Strong Consensus: (3) La Girvina – Top pick for multiple sources
Key Contender: (2) Curlin’s Girl – Strong support across handicappers
Dark Horse: (1) Keepthedreamalive – Top pick for Racenet and At The Races

Race 5 – Claiming

Overwhelming Consensus: (3) Wonder Wave – Top pick for 4 of 5 sources
Strong Contender: (4) Grosse Ile – Consistent second choice
Value Play: (6) Raven Dance – FanDuel’s top pick

Race 6 – Claiming

Strong Consensus: (1) Burnin Turf – Top pick for 3 sources
Key Contender: (3) Midnight Ambition – TwinSpires top pick, strong elsewhere
Also Consider: (5) The Doorman

Race 7 – Claiming

Split Field: Multiple contenders with strong support
Top Contenders: (2) On Reserve, (7) Mrs. Manicotti – Both have strong backing
Value Plays: (4) Kanazawa, (5) Bam Bam – Top picks for At The Races and FanDuel respectively

Race 8 – Maiden Claiming

Consensus Top Pick: (4) Channel Me In – Strong across multiple sources
Key Contenders: (1) Lucy Playa, (6) Ocean Rain – Both with significant support
Also Consider: (5) Slainte Mhath

Key Observations

Strongest Consensus Races: Race 5 (Wonder Wave) and Race 6 (Burnin Turf) show the most expert agreement

Most Competitive Races: Race 3, Race 4, and Race 7 feature split opinions among handicappers, potentially offering betting value

Note: Favorites have struggled recently at Presque Isle Downs, with favorites going 0-8 on the previous day’s card, suggesting potential value in longer-priced contenders

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