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Aqueduct presents an eight-race card on Friday with competitive fields throughout. Sunday’s racing has been cancelled due to winter storm forecasts affecting the New York City area, making today’s card the focal point for horseplayers on the East Coast. The track surface is expected to be fast based on current cold and clear conditions, which will provide consistent racing surface throughout the afternoon program. Recent track trends at Aqueduct show a predominantly fair-playing track with minimal bias, though speed has shown occasional advantages when track conditions are extremely fast. The rail plays neutral to slight advantage but is not dominant. Post positions will play a secondary role to actual racing form and trip positioning in today’s races.
Weather and Track Conditions
Temperatures today will hover around 36 degrees Fahrenheit with wind gusts between 5-10 miles per hour from the southwest. No precipitation is forecasted, ensuring a fast, consistent dirt track surface throughout the afternoon program. Such conditions historically produce firm racing surfaces that favor horses able to establish early position and maintain that placement, though the absence of extreme speed bias means tactical racing and overall form remain paramount. The track is expected to play fairly across all post positions, particularly for routes on the main track. For six-furlong sprints, speed horses may encounter slight advantage if able to secure the lead, but this will not be pronounced given current field compositions and past Aqueduct tendencies.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
Historical data from January 23 at Aqueduct shows the track played fairly with no significant bias detected. The rail is generally playable but not dominant in recent meets. Speed bias emerged only on extreme fast tracks (typically recorded as very fast to sloppy sealed conditions), which is not expected today. Recent analysis indicates that for routes, inside closers and outside runners with proper trip opportunities have both found success, suggesting equitable racing conditions. For six-furlong races, winning runners have come from multiple post positions without pronounced advantage favoring any particular zone. Trip and pace positioning will matter more than post draw in today’s competitive fields.
RACE 1 – MAIDEN CLAIMING
Post Time: 12:40 PM | 1 Mile Dirt | Purse $42,000
Pace Analysis
This six-horse maiden claiming event for three-year-olds will likely develop a moderate pace structure. Vinnie Bankerino and Big Brooklyn both demonstrated speed in recent efforts, suggesting they may compete for early positioning. Takahama showed tactical ability when finishing second over this track and distance. The likely scenario involves a contested early pace followed by opportunities for late runners if the two speed horses fade. Given the field composition, expect fractions around 24-48 for the opening half-mile, producing a sustainable pace that opens the race in the final quarter.
Key Contenders
Vinnie Bankerino emerges as the leading selection based on expert consensus and race dynamics. The three-year-old colt showed genuine promise in his career debut despite being outpaced and shuffled back early, finishing second in his first career attempt. Bred as a half-brother to stakes-placed runners like Cinderella’s Cause and Amadeus Music, Bankerino demonstrated sufficient ability to warrant strong consideration at this level. Jockey Jose Antonio Gomez maintains a 76% strike rate in win opportunities, and trainer David G. Donk has shown consistent ability with similar stock. Bankerino will break from post 1 and likely establish presence from the gate, attempting to control this event early with his speed advantage.
Takahama represents the morning line favorite for valid reasons. The three-year-old colt finished a strong second over this exact track and distance in his most recent outing, indicating comfort with the surface and routing distance. He possesses the tactical flexibility to either establish early position or develop late if pace scenarios warrant. The colt carries optimal weight at 115 pounds with rider Dalila A. Rivera, who maintains a solid win rate at Aqueduct.
Secondary Choices
Big Brooklyn earned consideration through multiple competitive efforts despite not yet reaching the winner’s circle. The three-year-old colt finished clear third in his most recent start, demonstrating improved form trajectory. He showed genuine speed with Lasix in recent efforts but faced tougher pace dynamics than he may encounter here. Jockey Jose Lezcano’s 32.6% Aqueduct strike rate and trainer Carlos F. Martin’s proven capability at this level provide additional support. Always Honest rounds out the secondary tier with similar credentials of competitive efforts against stronger competition.
Longshots
You’re Lookin Good and Calvary Hill (making his first start with blinkers) offer price plays depending on morning line movement. Calvary Hill’s first-time blinkers may produce improvement, though maiden claiming debuts typically require proven form patterns.
Selections
Win: Vinnie Bankerino
Place: Takahama
Show: Big Brooklyn
RACE 2 – ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
Post Time: 1:09 PM | 6 Furlongs Dirt | Purse $88,000
Pace Analysis
This five-horse allowance optional claiming event presents a competitive sprint with multiple legitimate pace-setters. El Grande O and Bold Journey both carry speed, suggesting potential early battle for position. Baby Yoda demonstrated ability to rate off pace in stakes company, providing tactical flexibility. The race structure likely features contested early fractions around 23 seconds followed by genuine stretch battle. Speed advantage will exist but not overwhelm late runners given field quality and jockey assignments.
Key Contenders
El Grande O emerges as the consensus favorite and rightfully so. The five-year-old gelding drops from Grade 3 stakes company where he finished fourth most recently. More significantly, El Grande O previously defeated stablemate Acoustic Ave when both met at the same conditions in October, demonstrating his capability against quality competition. The gelding earned back-to-back wins with consecutive triple-digit Beyer speed figures following a layoff, establishing elite credentials for this level. Rider Sahin Civaci maintains consistency, and trainer Linda Rice leads the Aqueduct circuit with 26.45% win rate across thousands of starts. El Grande O breaks from post 5 with favorable drawing placement and represents a strong value proposition despite morning line favorite status.
Bold Journey provides steady competition with proven consistency at this level. The seven-year-old gelding has compiled respectable form holding up against similar competition, though El Grande O’s recent stakes exposure gives the latter an edge.
Secondary Choices
Baby Yoda warrants consideration despite being a Class D drop from stakes company to allowance. The eight-year-old gelding previously won at this track for $100,000 claiming at Saratoga, demonstrating capability to succeed at reasonable odds in competitive company.
Acoustic Ave, trainer Linda Rice’s most recent claim, earned runner-up honors against superior stakes company just two weeks ago. The three-time winner could deliver value at premium morning line odds if speed dynamics favor his running style.
Selections
Win: El Grande O
Place: Bold Journey
Show: Baby Yoda
RACE 3 – MAIDEN CLAIMING
Post Time: 1:38 PM | 6 Furlongs Dirt | Purse $26,500
Pace Analysis
This seven-horse maiden claiming event for four-year-old and upward fillies and mares will be speed-oriented with Sabby Sunset likely establishing early control. Tahila and Lady Meringue both carry pace credentials, setting up probable mid-race battle for positioning. Expect aggressive fractions around 23 seconds with genuine opportunities for closers if pace deteriorates. The track’s current fast condition will reward horses establishing early advantage, yet tactical racing ability will remain paramount.
Key Contenders
Sabby Sunset dominates this field from speed perspective. The four-year-old filly carries proven dirt sprint credentials with multiple competitive efforts against superior company. Most critically, she ran well in higher grades, earning competitive efforts in conditions demanding genuine quality. Her recent loss came against males in higher company where she “lost confidence when unable to make the lead,” suggesting she requires control of pace. Against this maiden claiming field lacking comparable quality, Sabby Sunset should establish and maintain early advantage. Rider Reylu Gutierrez (17% win rate) and trainer John P. Terranova II provide solid support. Morning line of 7-5 (approximately 1.40 to 1) may reflect this prospect’s validity.
Lady Meringue represents the second-best selection through the Linda Rice training connection and competitive effort pattern. Rice maintains 26.45% win rate at Aqueduct and has excelled with fillies stepping down from higher levels. Lady Meringue contested pace in her dirt debut before fading, suggesting she requires improvement but shows fundamental athleticism.
Secondary Choices
Tahila earned consideration with first-time blinkers applied, potentially producing improvement similar to Calvary Hill’s equipment change in Race 1. The four-year-old filly showed competitive promise when facing superior competition, though her recent effort rated uncompetitive. Blinkers may sharpen focus and tactical positioning.
Lookie Here offers value play potential if market prices her as longshot despite reasonable form credentials.
Selections
Win: Sabby Sunset
Place: Lady Meringue
Show: Tahila
RACE 4 – CLAIMING
Post Time: 2:08 PM | 7 Furlongs Dirt | Purse $27,500
Pace Analysis
This seven-horse claiming event presents balanced pace structure with King Phoenix providing genuine speed while Shoot The Nickel offers tactical flexibility. Multiple horses can rate off pace, suggesting sustained early fractions around 23-24 seconds with honest stretch battle. Speed establishes advantage but lacks dominance given tactical jockey assignments and field quality. Expect competitive racing throughout with late-running opportunities if pace leaders tire.
Key Contenders
King Phoenix emerges as expert consensus choice and the Daily Racing Form best bet selection. The four-year-old gelding demonstrated critical attributes in recent racing: maiden winner who was released to claimer and dropped from Finger Lakes allowance company to this level. Post-race analysis noted he “was sent to the lead after breaking slowly, and noticeably tired and got run down” by odds-on favorite two starts back, suggesting he tires when pressing early. However, his maiden win “off the claim for this trainer” indicates trainer Richard E. Dutrow Jr.’s expertise in placing claim acquisitions in optimal spots. Most importantly, he “drops with speed from the rail” (post 1), providing optimal positioning for his running style. Jockey Manuel Franco’s 18% Aqueduct win rate (leading among active riders at the track) represents elite assignment. Franco maintains 21% win rate nationally and shows extreme consistency. This combination of declining trainer specialty, improving form trajectory, and elite rider positioning makes King Phoenix vulnerable to underestimation if market overweights recent poor performances.
Shoot The Nickel provides strong opposition. The four-year-old gelding consistently earned competitive figures when facing superior competition last year, suggesting genuine quality relative to this dropping field. He demonstrated “early trouble on the drop last time and could only manage fourth as the favorite,” indicating trip factors rather than form deterioration. At 4-5 morning line, he represents the consensus choice among betting public.
Secondary Choices
Ez Roll warrants consideration as consistent performer earning decent form figures at this level. The five-year-old gelding has earned multiple placing efforts and represents solid second choice.
Always Be Smart and Taparino provide tertiary considerations with modest credentials and value potential if market overlooks them.
Selections
Win: King Phoenix
Place: Shoot The Nickel
Show: Ez Roll
RACE 5 – MAIDEN OPTIONAL CLAIMING
Post Time: 2:38 PM | 6 Furlongs Dirt | Purse $70,000
Pace Analysis
This nine-horse maiden optional claiming event features first-time starters competing against previous runners, creating dynamic pace structures. Call Me Jal chased pace at higher level, suggesting early aggressive positioning. Maizey Blue and other firsters carry athletic workouts potentially translating to early position. Expect moderately fast early fractions around 22-23 seconds with opportunities throughout the stretch. First-time starters lack proven pace credentials, creating unpredictability favoring horses with tactical flexibility.
Key Contenders
Maizey Blue emerges as TimeformUS selection based on athletic workout credentials and trainer Kenneth G. McPeek’s exceptional record with first-time starters. The three-year-old filly demonstrated significant athleticism in OBS workout (10 2/5 seconds), indicating physical capabilities at this level. McPeek’s New York string has been “winning with firsters for the last year,” establishing track record of success with maiden optional claiming debuts. While first-time starters carry inherent unpredictability, McPeek’s expertise translates to elevated winning likelihood versus typical firsters. The filly represents logical top choice despite morning line odds.
Call Me Jal warrants consideration through higher-level competitive experience. The three-year-old filly “ran pretty well chasing the pace at a higher level on debut,” demonstrating genuine early speed and ability to handle pace pressure. She was “a big price that day” (suggesting 15-20+ morning line odds), indicating market overestimation of her ability level. Dropping to maiden optional claiming represents significant class reduction positioning her ideally for victory.
Secondary Choices
Strike A Rose and Think I’m in Love both carry competitive credentials at lower levels with decent form figures. Backstreets offers consideration through trainer Mark A. Hennig’s solid record.
Selections
Win: Maizey Blue
Place: Call Me Jal
Show: Strike A Rose
RACE 6 – STARTER ALLOWANCE
Post Time: 3:08 PM | 6 Furlongs Dirt | Purse $57,000
Pace Analysis
This seven-horse starter allowance event for New York-bred four-year-olds and upward presents balanced racing structure. Apollo Code recently won establishing pace credentials, while Brave Buck rates similarly with proven speed. Multiple tactical runners provide flexibility. Expect moderately fast early fractions around 23 seconds with balanced stretch contention. Speed carries advantage but won’t overwhelm field given rider quality and competitive credentials.
Key Contenders
Apollo Code represents overwhelming consensus choice following recent victory. The five-year-old gelding carries excellent credentials: recent win establishing form peak, 19% win rate across 21 career starts, 57% in-the-money rate suggesting consistency, and optimal post position (6) for his running style. Most critically, Apollo Code won despite favoring sprint distances and wider racing surface, suggesting genuine improving form trajectory. Jockey Jaime Rodriguez maintains 21% Aqueduct win rate, and trainer Raymond Handal shows remarkable 38% win rate with this horse specifically. The 8-5 morning line underestimates Apollo Code’s current form cycle, particularly relative to class level.
Brave Buck provides second-best option with multiple place efforts and demonstrated consistency in this classification. The five-year-old gelding worked consistently at this level earning multiple top-three finishes. Linda Rice’s proven stable management historically produces improvement when horses are ready, and Brave Buck’s form pattern suggests readiness for victory.
Secondary Choices
Forgone emerged in recent starts demonstrating improvement trajectory. The five-year-old gelding “missed time after debuting” and “managed to close down maiden claimers last time,” establishing form recovery pattern. While three starts behind Apollo Code, improvement rate may accelerate under optimal conditions.
Smilensaycheese rates as value option with decent form credentials at this level.
Selections
Win: Apollo Code
Place: Brave Buck
Show: Forgone
RACE 7 – CLAIMING
Post Time: 3:38 PM | 1 Mile Dirt | Purse $32,000
Pace Analysis
This ten-horse claiming event for fillies and mares features multiple pace-setting options creating competitive early fractions. Mitole’s Girl carries speed establishing likely early advantage. Toxic Girl and Rachel’s Rock both offer tactical flexibility. Expect fractions around 25-26 seconds with honest stretch battle. Speed provides advantage but not dominance given field quality and tactical assignments. Late runners have opportunities if pace deteriorates.
Key Contenders
Toxic Girl emerges as expert consensus choice for multiple compelling reasons. The four-year-old filly carries exceptional form credentials: 12% win rate across 16 career starts indicating consistent competitive participation, 44% in-the-money rate establishing reliability, and critical recent win at this exact distance (1 mile dirt at Aqueduct). Most significantly, she earned victory at this track and distance versus this classification level, representing direct evidence of capability. Jockey Jose Lezcano maintains 32.6% Aqueduct strike rate, and trainer Linda Rice shows 26.45% historical win rate with 21% in current 2026. Toxic Girl benefits from optimal placement after recent victory, likely catching betting public at underlay morning line odds (9-2 approximately 4.5-1) due to multiple competitors sharing quality credentials.
Mitole’s Girl warrants strong consideration as secondary option. The five-year-old mare demonstrated recent competitive effort finishing fourth in this exact classification at Aqueduct, indicating fitness for current level. Brad Cox trainer connection (27.3% dirt win rate nationally) combines with Manuel Franco riding assignment (18% Aqueduct win rate, leading rider status) creating exceptional team credentials. Morning line of 7-2 fairly prices her merit.
Secondary Choices
Rachel’s Rock represents value option returning from significant layoff. She carries “strong form in higher grade and looks well placed to bounce back,” according to racing form analysis, though the extended absence creates added uncertainty. She represents bet-building overlay opportunity despite layoff concerns.
That’s Funny won last time out, potentially catching improving form and providing secondary consideration.
Selections
Win: Toxic Girl
Place: Mitole’s Girl
Show: Rachel’s Rock
RACE 8 – MAIDEN CLAIMING
Post Time: 4:08 PM | 1 Mile Dirt | Purse $26,500
Pace Analysis
This ten-horse maiden claiming event features limited speed establishment among traditional pace-setters, creating more tactical racing dynamics. Multiple runners rate off pace, suggesting moderate early fractions around 25-26 seconds with emphasis on stretch performance. Speed doesn’t establish dominant advantage; late runners gain opportunities if tactical racing develops. Jockey quality and training placement will determine ultimate structure rather than inherent speed bias.
Key Contenders
Beck’s Dreamer dominates this field through combination of circumstances: new face shipping into field of maidens “that have already had their chances for the most part,” trainer Linda Rice’s exceptional record with recent acquisitions, and optimal morning line of 1-1 suggesting odds-makers recognize dominance. The source analysis notes he “has the advantage of being a new face” and “might not need to improve at all in this spot,” establishing framework for confident selection. Rice’s proven expertise in claim acquisition and placement suggests calculated positioning for victory. Despite heavy favoritism, Beck’s Dreamer represents logical top choice given field composition and training connection quality.
Powered By Coal warrants consideration as secondary choice through Santana Jr.’s capable riding assignment and recent form pattern. The four-year-old gelding demonstrated competitive form when racing aggressively in maiden company, suggesting readiness for victory if trip develops favorably.
Secondary Choices
Freedom Maker provides tertiary consideration following second-place finish as favorite last time out. The five-year-old gelding “didn’t run a fast race” according to analysis despite favorite status, suggesting performance deterioration rather than form decline. However, he “has much better races than that to get to,” indicating this represents step down in competition. Potential return to form makes him viable secondary bet.
Enduring Angel and other runners offer longshot consideration depending on trip development.
Selections
Win: Beck’s Dreamer
Place: Powered By Coal
Show: Freedom Maker
JOCKEY NOTES AND INSIGHTS
Manuel Franco continues his dominance as the leading rider at NYRA racetracks, securing top honors with 206 wins across the association in 2025. His consistency translates to multiple mounts today, particularly King Phoenix in Race 4 (his best bet selection) and Mitole’s Girl in Race 7. Franco’s 18% Aqueduct win rate among active riders represents elite standard. His riding style emphasizes tactical positioning and aggressive move timing in stretch drives, making him particularly valuable aboard horses requiring trip-making in competitive fields like today’s races.
Jose Lezcano maintains solid 32.6% strike rate at Aqueduct through 43 recent starts, establishing himself as reliable jockey assignment. His book of mounts today includes Big Brooklyn (Race 1), Taparino (Race 4), Brave Buck (Race 6), and Toxic Girl (Race 7), providing multiple opportunities for profitable action. Lezcano’s tactical flexibility benefits horses requiring ground-saving efforts or late moves.
Reylu Gutierrez continues developing at Aqueduct with 17% recent win rate. His assignment aboard Sabby Sunset in Race 3 provides logical pairing given the filly’s speed-oriented running style and his growing expertise with pace-setters.
Eric Cancel and Sahin Civaci provide solid depth at the meet with consistent Aqueduct presence, though neither carries elite strike rate credentials of Franco or Lezcano.
TRAINER NOTES AND INSIGHTS
Linda Rice’s record-setting 2025 performance (165 wins establishing new NYRA single-season record) continues into 2026 with commanding Aqueduct winter meet presence. Her 26.45% historical Aqueduct win rate and current 21% performance in 2026 establishes her as elite conditioner. Rice maintains particular strength with claim acquisitions, strategically placing them at optimal class levels with tactical precision. Her multiple runners today (Lady Meringue in Race 3, Brave Buck in Race 6, Toxic Girl in Race 7, and others) provide consistent underlaid value through training connections rather than horse credentials alone.
Brad Cox’s national prominence translates to limited Aqueduct presence today but maintains elite credentials. His 27.3% dirt win rate nationally and recent wins with King Phoenix’s stablemate reinforce his expertise in strategically placing claim acquisitions. Cox’s training style emphasizes proper placement within current form cycle, suggesting runners he enters represent calculated positioning decisions.
Richard E. Dutrow Jr. demonstrates specialized expertise with claim acquisitions, indicated by King Phoenix’s maiden win “off the claim for this trainer.” His limited starter book suggests selective placements rather than volume approach, establishing confidence when he enters horses at current level.
Kenneth G. McPeek’s New York string has “been winning with firsters for the last year” according to expert analysis, establishing track record supporting Maizey Blue’s candidacy in Race 5. His expertise with maiden optional claiming debuts particularly benefits first-time starters requiring organizational structure and training expertise.
BEST WAGERING STRATEGIES AND VALUE PLAYS
Race 1 – Maiden Claiming (1 Mile Dirt): The field features three viable contenders with distinct speed dynamics. Consider Exacta box combinations (Vinnie Bankerino-Takahama, Vinnie Bankerino-Big Brooklyn, Takahama-Big Brooklyn) at 2-1 pricing, providing value relative to individual selections. Trifecta combinations with outside runners offer premium pricing when Big Brooklyn and Always Honest combine with top two selections. Avoid single-win wagers on consensus favorites; maintain flexibility through multiple-outcome betting vehicles.
Race 2 – Allowance Optional Claiming (6 Furlongs Dirt): El Grande O’s recent stakes exposure combined with tactical victory over Acoustic Ave suggests legitimate play at approximately even-money odds. However, deeper value exists by keying Baby Yoda and Acoustic Ave in horizontal wagers (Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 6) rather than standalone bets. Their secondary credentials carry 3-1 to 5-1 approximate value providing superior risk-reward positioning when combined with higher-confidence selections in adjacent races.
Race 3 – Maiden Claiming (6 Furlongs Dirt): Sabby Sunset’s speed advantage combined with pace-favoring track conditions suggests solid play at 7-5 (approximately 2.4-1) morning line. Value emerges by constructing Exacta combinations pairing Sabby Sunset over Lady Meringue and Tahila, potentially yielding 6-1 to 8-1 payouts. Avoid trifecta wagers expecting minor placings from lower-credentialed runners; maintain disciplined focus on top-tier contenders.
Race 4 – Claiming (7 Furlongs Dirt): King Phoenix represents genuine overlay despite Franco-Dutrow combination and declining form pattern. Expert consensus (DRF best bet designation) combined with optimal post positioning and tactical trainer placement suggests 4-1 to 5-1 fair value exists above morning line 4-1 quotes. Construct exacta combinations (King Phoenix over Shoot The Nickel, Ez Roll, Always Be Smart) yielding solid payouts while maintaining confidence in top choice. This race represents critical card opportunity for profitable advantage.
Race 5 – Maiden Optional Claiming (6 Furlongs Dirt): Maizey Blue’s workout credentials and McPeek’s proven first-time starter success recommend play despite likely favoritism. Avoid predictable Exacta patterns; instead construct trifecta combinations where Maizey Blue runs over competitive secondaries (Call Me Jal, Strike A Rose) paired with longer-shot placings from outside contenders. Premium pricing on unlikely combinations rewards disciplined analysis when strong contender is likely to improve form.
Race 6 – Starter Allowance (6 Furlongs Dirt): Apollo Code’s recent victory combined with exceptional trainer-jockey credentials (Handal 38% with this horse specifically, Rodriguez 21% Aqueduct win rate) suggests play at 8-5 morning line representing fair value. Construct exacta boxes (Apollo Code with Brave Buck, Forgone) to capture second-place opportunities when favorite potentially gets caught late. Consider Apollo Code over field in Pick 3 or Pick 4 combinations building from earlier race selections.
Race 7 – Claiming (1 Mile Dirt): Toxic Girl’s recent victory at exact distance and conditions combined with Linda Rice and Jose Lezcano assignments recommend confident play despite 9-2 morning line (4.5-1). Value emerges by constructing exacta combinations pairing Toxic Girl over Mitole’s Girl and Rachel’s Rock. Her recent form peak suggests modest underlay relative to actual winning probability. Maintain exposure through directional wagering rather than concentrated stakes.
Race 8 – Maiden Claiming (1 Mile Dirt): Beck’s Dreamer’s dominance at 1-1 morning line suggests overlaid risk rather than value opportunity. Instead, construct Pick 3 and Pick 6 combinations using Beck’s Dreamer as standout selection requiring other race selections to develop optimally. This racing environment favors conditional wagers where heavy favorites exist but selection quality remains unproven in current field context.
Card Strategy: Construct multi-race ticket containing Race 2 El Grande O, Race 4 King Phoenix, Race 6 Apollo Code, and Race 7 Toxic Girl as key contenders. These four selections represent expert-supported plays combining trainer credentials, jockey excellence, and optimal class placement. A Pick 3 (Races 1-3) emphasizing Vinnie Bankerino, El Grande O, and Sabby Sunset creates coherent narrative with reasonable 8-1 to 12-1 payoff profile. Build remaining races around secondary selections capturing potential overlays (Baby Yoda, Ez Roll, Forgone) providing conditional value when primary selections reach wire. Maintain card perspective rather than race-by-race isolation, positioning for cumulative profit across full program.
