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Aqueduct hosts a compelling 10-race card Saturday, November 15, 2025, featuring two stakes races that headline the afternoon program. The Grade 3 Jockey Club Oaks for 3-year-old fillies at 1 3/8 miles on turf anchors Race 7, with a purse of $350,000, while the Listed Knickerbocker Stakes for 3-year-olds and up at 1 1/8 miles on the outer turf highlights Race 9 with a $150,000 purse. The card begins at 11:40 AM with first post time and runs through 4:09 PM, offering diverse betting opportunities across maiden, claiming, allowance, and stakes conditions.​

The outer turf rail is set at 24 feet for this card, which typically produces fair racing conditions with less inside bias than when the rail is at zero. Both turf and dirt surfaces have been playing fairly in recent days, with track superintendents noting the turf courses trending slightly toward the Good side of Firm while maintaining excellent racing conditions.​

Post position statistics at Aqueduct favor inside posts 1-6 on both turf and dirt, particularly in smaller fields, though the advantage diminishes with the outer turf rail placement. Outside posts 8 and beyond face notable disadvantages in route races that start near the clubhouse turn, consistent with Aqueduct’s traditional configuration.​

Weather and Track Conditions

Saturday’s weather forecast calls for turning cloudy conditions with a high temperature of 40 degrees Fahrenheit and a shower possible late in the afternoon. The morning should remain dry for the early races, with potential precipitation concerns developing as the card progresses into the late afternoon stakes races. Wind conditions are expected to be light to moderate from the north at approximately 6 mph, not significant enough to materially impact racing.​

The main dirt track is expected to be listed as Fast for the early portions of the card, with the possibility of changing conditions if afternoon showers materialize. Both the inner and outer turf courses should maintain Firm to Good conditions for the morning and early afternoon races, though handicappers should monitor for any weather-related surface changes that could impact the two turf stakes in Races 7 and 9.​

Track management has noted recent surfaces have been producing quick times with a slight speed advantage on the main track, though closers have also found success in recent days, suggesting relatively fair track conditions overall. The turf courses have been racing true to form with no significant biases reported in recent racing days.​

Race 1

Maiden Claiming for 2-year-old fillies at 1 Mile on Dirt, Purse $48,000, Claiming Price $40,000

Post Time

11:40 AM EST

Pace Analysis

This maiden claiming event should see moderate early fractions with multiple fillies capable of pressing forward. Cathedral Aisle figures to be involved in the early pace battle from post 7, while Island Charm from post 6 and Ivy Girl from post 2 both show early tactical speed. The pace should set up reasonably for closers, though the mile distance on the main track typically favors horses that can establish good early position.​

Key Contenders

Island Charm enters as the morning line favorite at 5-2 and represents a significant class drop after competing in higher-level maiden special weight company. The filly shows enough tactical speed to secure good position and the class relief should be meaningful. Trainer Brittany Russell has been effective with similar maneuvers, and jockey Jaime Rodriguez is well-suited to the assignment.​

Cathedral Aisle draws post 7 and sits at 3-1 on the morning line after placing in similar company last time. The Rick Dutrow trainee gets elite rider Flavien Prat, who has been absolutely devastating at the current Aqueduct meet with 43 wins and a tremendous winning percentage. Prat recently set a NYRA record with seven wins on a single card and has maintained that hot streak. The outside post presents some concern in a route race starting near the clubhouse turn, but Prat’s current form cannot be ignored.​

Luciana’s Honor rates strong consideration at 4-1 for trainer Mark Hennig with Javier Castellano in the irons. The Code of Honor filly has shown promise and gets a well-regarded rider capable of securing good position from post 3. The inside draw provides a tactical advantage in this configuration.​

Secondary Choices

Ivy Girl merits respect at 7-2 with Manuel Franco riding for Amelia Green. Franco has been riding well at the meet with 48 starts and strong placement numbers. The post 2 position offers an excellent launching pad, though first-time maiden claimers can be unpredictable.​

Whatta Weekend at 6-1 brings Katie Davis aboard for trainer David Duggan. The filly shows some workmanlike efforts and could factor if the pace collapses, though she appears a cut below the top tier.​

Betting Strategy

The race sets up as a competitive maiden claimer with legitimate chances for the top four choices. Key Island Charm and Cathedral Aisle in exactas and trifectas, using Luciana’s Honor and Ivy Girl underneath. A win bet on Cathedral Aisle offers value given Prat’s extraordinary current form and the filly’s recent competitive effort. The exacta box of Island Charm and Cathedral Aisle provides solid coverage of the two main win threats.

Selections

Win: Cathedral Aisle

Place: Island Charm

Show: Luciana’s Honor

Race 2

Claiming for fillies and mares 3-year-olds and up at 6 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt, Purse $31,000, Claiming Price $17,500

Post Time

12:10 PM EST

Pace Analysis

Tough Love Torres figures to establish clear early control from post 5, as the filly shows consistent front-running tendencies and gets Kendrick Carmouche aboard. Take Me to Londyn and Calling an Audible both show enough speed to press or stalk the pace, setting up a competitive early scenario. The 6 1/2-furlong distance should allow speed horses to maintain their advantage if fractions remain reasonable.​

Key Contenders

Tough Love Torres stands as the morning line favorite at 3-2 and represents a significant class drop for trainer Rob Atras. The filly has shown consistent early speed and two previous victories demonstrate ability at this level. Kendrick Carmouche boasts solid statistics at the meet with 40 wins and an 18% strike rate, and his tactical speed-riding style fits this assignment perfectly. The class relief off recent optional claiming attempts makes this filly the horse to beat.​

Take Me to Londyn brings the potent Brad Cox and Flavien Prat combination to post 3 at 9-2 morning line odds. The filly has demonstrated course-and-distance winning form and Cox has been exceptionally effective when shipping to Aqueduct. Prat’s hot streak continues and this represents a live upset chance if the favorite falters. The inside post provides tactical flexibility.​

Timia at 7-2 with Ricardo Santana Jr. represents a threat based on prior form. The Carlos Martin trainee has competitive speed figures and Santana has been riding consistently at the meet. She fits at this level but needs to overcome recent subpar efforts.​

Secondary Choices

Calling an Audible won impressively last time and brings Luis Rivera Jr. aboard for Edward Barker. The filly gets a weight break at 122 pounds as a 4-year-old and showed good tactical speed in her victory. She rates as a solid exotic play at 8-1 morning line odds.​

Auroralinna at 9-2 morning line for Wayne Potts shows competitive early speed and placed second two starts back. Christian Hiraldo rides and the filly could factor with a clean break, though consistency remains a question.​

Ragtime Sizzle rounds out the exotics as a potential closer who could benefit if the pace melts down. Sahin Civaci rides for Ilkay Kantarmaci, and the filly has shown flashes of ability in limited starts.​

Betting Strategy

This claiming sprint features a clear favorite in Tough Love Torres, but the Brad Cox/Flavien Prat combination on Take Me to Londyn presents legitimate upset potential. Use Tough Love Torres on top in exactas with Take Me to Londyn, Timia, and Calling an Audible. A straight win bet on Tough Love Torres makes sense given the significant class drop and the morning line odds figure to hold value. For those seeking bigger prices, Take Me to Londyn in exacta and trifecta positions provides solid coverage.

Selections

Win: Tough Love Torres

Place: Take Me to Londyn

Show: Timia

Race 3

Allowance for 3-year-olds and up at 7 Furlongs on Dirt, Purse $88,000

Post Time

12:40 PM EST

Pace Analysis

The pace scenario appears contentious with multiple speed types entered. Ican from post 2 shows tactical early speed, while My Mitole and Tizmarkus both demonstrate the ability to press forward. Long Pour, who scratched into this race from Race 8, brings legitimate early speed that could establish pressing fractions if he draws in as an also-eligible. The seven-furlong distance should favor horses with tactical speed who can secure good position through the first turn.​

Key Contenders

Ican sits at 9-2 on the morning line and brings the powerful Flavien Prat and Rick Dutrow Jr. combination. The 3-year-old gelding gets a 2-pound weight concession at 118 pounds and Prat’s current dominance at Aqueduct cannot be overstated. Dutrow excels with this type of allowance horse and the favorable post 2 draw provides tactical options. The gelding shows competitive speed figures and the weight concession could prove decisive.​

Pass the Hat represents trainer Bill Mott from post 4 and shows consistent form in similar company. The Quality Road colt gets Sahin Civaci in the saddle and Mott’s barn has been sharp throughout the fall meet. The middle post provides options for tactical positioning and this colt has demonstrated the ability to rate off the pace effectively.​

My Mitole at 9-2 for Carlos Martin with Ricardo Santana Jr. brings competitive speed figures from recent efforts. The 3-year-old colt gets a 2-pound weight allowance and Santana has been finding his rhythm at Aqueduct with consistent placings. The outside post 6 draw presents some challenges, but the colt shows enough tactical speed to overcome it.​

Secondary Choices

Tizmarkus enters from post 3 for Orlando Noda with Joel Rosario riding. The gelding has shown competitive form but appears slightly outclassed against this group. Still, Rosario’s experience and the favorable post position make him a logical exotic inclusion.​

Buttah represents Gary Sciacca from post 5 with Kendrick Carmouche aboard. The 3-year-old gets a weight concession and Carmouche’s strong meet continues, but this colt appears to need everything to break perfectly to threaten the top tier.​

Blue Kingdom and Trust Issues round out the field but appear overmatched based on recent form and class.​

Betting Strategy

This allowance event shapes as a competitive affair with legitimate chances spread among the top four choices. Key Ican based on Prat’s phenomenal form and the favorable weight concession. Spread underneath with Pass the Hat, My Mitole, and Tizmarkus in exactas and trifectas. A win bet on Ican provides solid value given Prat’s dominance, while exacta boxes with the top three choices cover the most likely outcomes.

Selections

Win: Ican

Place: Pass the Hat

Show: My Mitole

Race 4

Maiden Special Weight for 2-year-old colts and geldings at 1 1/16 Miles on Turf, Purse $85,000

Post Time

1:10 PM EST

Pace Analysis

This maiden turf route features a large field of 14 runners with diverse running styles. Boss Henry from the Chad Brown barn figures to rate off moderate early fractions set by likely pacesetters Royal Quest, Woodster, and Bellamy. The 1 1/16-mile turf distance favors horses with tactical speed who can secure good position without expending excessive energy. The large field and outer turf rail setting should produce fair racing conditions without significant bias.​

Key Contenders

Boss Henry draws post 9 and represents the powerful Chad Brown stable with Flavien Prat aboard at 9-2 morning line odds. Brown leads all trainers nationally in turf stakes wins and excels with this type of maiden route runner. Prat’s current hot streak at Aqueduct adds significant appeal, and the jockey has ridden this colt before, suggesting barn confidence. Boss Henry showed promise in his debut when third at Belmont and the experience edge over several first-time starters proves meaningful.​

Bellamy represents Todd Pletcher with John Velazquez in the irons from post 5. The Pletcher/Velazquez combination always demands respect, especially in maiden turf routes where Pletcher’s preparation shines. The middle post provides tactical flexibility and Velazquez excels at rating young horses through the early stages. Morning line odds of 20-1 seem generous for this combination.​

Scope draws post 6 and gives Pletcher a second entry with Manuel Franco riding. Franco has been riding well at the meet with strong placement statistics, and Pletcher often wins these races with his secondary entry. The colt merits consideration in exotics based on barn strength alone.​

Gulfy sits at 3-1 on the morning line for George Weaver with Eric Cancel aboard. The morning line suggests some public support, though Cancel’s meet statistics lag behind the elite riders. Weaver trains solid turf horses and this one could factor with a clean trip.​

Secondary Choices

Copa de Plata at 6-1 for Mark Casse with Sahin Civaci provides value based on breeding and barn. Casse excels with turf maidens and this colt shows competitive figures from limited starts.​

Royal Quest leads off from post 1 for Bill Mott with Jose Lezcano riding. Mott’s barn strength and Lezcano’s experience make this one dangerous, though the rail post in a large field presents challenges.​

A Little At First represents Horacio De Paz from post 7 with Dylan Davis aboard. The gelding shows some tactical speed and could sneak into the exotics at a price.​

Fleet N Ready and Fightforallegiance both merit passing consideration as potential longshots, though both appear to need significant improvement.​

Longshots

Print at post 10 with Luis Rivera Jr. could surprise at a big price if the pace setup favors deep closers. The colt represents Robert Ribaudo and shows some breeding appeal for the distance.​

Brass Nucks from post 8 offers extreme longshot value if everything breaks perfectly, though considerable improvement is required.​

Betting Strategy

This competitive maiden turf route features strong trainers and quality breeding throughout. Key Boss Henry based on Brown’s turf expertise and Prat’s hot hand, then spread underneath with Bellamy, Scope, Gulfy, and Copa de Plata. A win bet on Boss Henry provides value at projected odds, while exacta boxes including the Brown and Pletcher entries offer solid coverage. Consider trifecta wheels using Boss Henry on top over the secondary choices for bigger payouts.

Selections

Win: Boss Henry

Place: Bellamy

Show: Scope

Race 5

Claiming for 3-year-olds and up at 7 Furlongs on Dirt, Purse $28,000, Claiming Price $10,000

Post Time

1:40 PM EST

Pace Analysis

This bottom-level claiming sprint should see legitimate early speed from Bold Victory, Master of Arms, and Cathedral Beach, setting up contested early fractions. The low claiming price suggests unpredictable horses with questions, making pace handicapping challenging. Grouch shows some tactical speed from post 8 with Ricardo Santana Jr. aboard, while For Some Reason could press from post 7. The pace scenario favors horses that can secure stalking position without engaging too early.​

Key Contenders

Grouch represents trainer Timothy Hills with Ricardo Santana Jr. from post 8 at projected morning line odds around 5-2. The 5-year-old gelding brings competitive speed figures for this level and Santana has been finding success at the meet with consistent placement. The outside post in a nine-horse field provides options, and Hills conditions horses effectively at this claiming level. Grouch shows enough tactical speed to overcome the outside draw in a sprint.​

Master of Arms draws post 6 for Linda Rice with Kendrick Carmouche riding. Rice excels at placing horses in spots where they can succeed, and Carmouche’s strong meet continues with excellent winning percentages. The middle-to-outside post works well for a stalking type, and this gelding has demonstrated ability to finish his races against similar.​

Cathedral Beach represents Panagiotis Synnefias from post 5 with Julio Hernandez aboard. The gelding shows competitive form at this claiming level and the middle post provides tactical options. Hernandez brings solid experience and this one could work out a ground-saving trip from the favorable draw.​

Secondary Choices

Nobodyridesforfree sits at post 3 for Lolita Shivmangal with Omar Hernandez Moreno riding. The gelding gets a 2-pound weight concession after a long layoff since winning previously. The inside post and weight break could prove beneficial if the horse is fit enough to handle this spot.​

For Some Reason represents the same Shivmangal barn from post 7 with Eric Cancel. The 4-year-old gelding gets a 2-pound weight allowance and shows some tactical ability, though consistency at this level remains questionable.​

Bold Victory, Glint, and Ahsad appear overmatched or facing difficult post positions that compromise their chances significantly.​

Betting Strategy

This low-level claiming sprint features unpredictable horses with question marks throughout. Use Grouch on top based on Santana’s current form and the trainer’s success at this level. Spread underneath with Master of Arms, Cathedral Beach, and Nobodyridesforfree in exactas and trifectas. Keep tickets modest given the claiming level and inherent unpredictability. A small win bet on Grouch makes sense, while exacta and trifecta boxes with the top four choices provide broader coverage.

Selections

Win: Grouch

Place: Master of Arms

Show: Cathedral Beach

Race 6

Allowance for fillies and mares 3-year-olds and up on Outer Turf at 6 Furlongs, Purse $81,000

Post Time

2:10 PM EST

Pace Analysis

This New York-bred allowance sprint on the outer turf course should see moderate early fractions with several fillies capable of pressing forward. Artistic Success from post 1 shows early tactical speed, while Alpine Giant, Fifi La Fume, and Long Legged Queen all demonstrate the ability to secure forward position. The six-furlong turf sprint distance favors horses with natural tactical speed who can conserve energy for the stretch drive. The outer turf rail at 24 feet should produce relatively fair racing conditions.​

Key Contenders

Willful Mama draws post 9 and brings the powerful combination of trainer Michael Maker and jockey Flavien Prat. Maker excels with turf sprinters and Prat’s phenomenal current form at Aqueduct makes any horse he rides a legitimate threat. The outside post in a 14-horse field presents some concern, but Prat’s tactical brilliance should overcome the draw. The morning line odds figure to provide value given Prat’s hot streak.​

Miss Bourbon represents Tom Morley from post 2 with John Velazquez aboard. Velazquez brings elite experience and strong meet statistics, while the favorable post 2 draw provides an excellent launching pad in a large field. The filly shows competitive speed figures for this level and the Velazquez/Morley combination has been effective in similar spots. The inside post advantage cannot be discounted in a crowded turf sprint.​

Twirling Lulu sits at post 8 for Bruce Levine with Javier Castellano riding. Castellano ranks among the elite riders nationally and brings excellent tactical skills to turf sprints. Levine has developed this filly carefully and the middle-to-outside post works for a pressing type. She merits serious consideration in all exotic wagers.​

Alpine Giant from post 3 represents Jeremiah Englehart with Ricardo Santana Jr. aboard. The New York-bred filly shows tactical speed and gets a 2-pound weight allowance as a 3-year-old. Santana has been riding consistently at the meet and the favorable inside post provides options. She could surprise at a price if securing an economical trip.​

Secondary Choices

Artistic Success leads off from the rail for Joe Sharp with Manuel Franco riding. Franco’s strong meet continues and the rail post in a turf sprint can be advantageous with the right trip. The filly shows early speed and could wire this field if getting loose on an easy lead.​

Royal Event draws post 7 for Carlos Martin with Jose Lezcano aboard. The filly shows competitive form and Lezcano brings solid experience, making her a viable exotic inclusion.​

Long Legged Queen, No Factor, One Last Knock, Inamorata, Clearwater Beach, Howling Wind, and Munnings Express complete the large field, with most appearing overmatched or facing difficult trips from unfavorable posts.​

Betting Strategy

This New York-bred turf sprint features a massive field where post position and jockey skill prove critical. Key Willful Mama based on Prat’s extraordinary form and Maker’s turf expertise, then spread with Miss Bourbon, Twirling Lulu, and Alpine Giant underneath. A win bet on Willful Mama provides value despite the outside post, while exacta wheels using Willful Mama over Miss Bourbon and Twirling Lulu cover the most likely scenarios. Trifecta boxes including the top four choices maximize coverage in a wide-open sprint.

Selections

Win: Willful Mama

Place: Miss Bourbon

Show: Twirling Lulu

Race 7

Grade 3 Jockey Club Oaks for 3-year-old fillies at 1 3/8 Miles on Turf, Purse $350,000

Post Time

2:39 PM EST

Grade 3 Jockey Club Oaks for fillies three years old at 1 3/8 Miles on the turf course. Purse $350,000. Lasix not allowed within 48 hours of post time pursuant to HISA Rule 4212. By subscription of $350 each which shall accompany the nomination, $1,750 to pass the entry box and an additional $1,750 to start. For horses not originally nominated, a supplemental nomination payment of $1,750 in addition to the entry and starting fees may be made at any time prior to the closing of entries. Weight 122 pounds. Non-winners of a Graded Sweepstakes allowed 2 pounds, of a Sweepstakes in 2025 allowed 4 pounds. The New York Racing Association reserves the right to transfer this race to the main track, and in the event that this race is taken off the turf, it may be subject to downgrading upon review by the Graded Stakes Committee. Closed Saturday, November 1, 2025 with 18 Nominations.​

This represents the sixth running of this relatively new NYRA stakes race that forms part of the lucrative turf series for sophomore fillies. Charlie Appleby and Chad Brown have dominated recent renewals with four consecutive victories between them, but both prominent stables are absent from the 2025 edition, opening the door for other connections.​

Running Style and Pace Dynamics

The pace scenario for this marathon turf event appears moderate rather than contentious, which could present challenges for deep closers seeking a strong tempo setup. National Archive exits a wire-to-wire allowance victory and possesses early tactical speed, while Evershed demonstrated front-running ability in her Colonial Downs allowance score but has shown tactical versatility by stalking in stakes company. Don’t Jinx It represents the most likely pacesetter, having wired a field at 39-1 odds at Saratoga when securing extremely soft early fractions before holding on gamely.​​

Scythian has shown the ability to press forward early if her rider chooses that tactic, though she typically rates within striking distance of the leaders. The Graham Motion trainee generally positions his star filly Laurelin in mid-pack before unleashing her sustained run, and this tactical approach has produced five consecutive victories at distances ranging from 1 mile to 1 3/16 miles. Fionn typically races from the back of the field, sometimes as far as 10 lengths off the early pace, before making one sustained late run in the stretch.​

The modest early tempo should favor fillies with tactical speed who can secure good position without expending excessive energy, while horses relying on explosive late kicks may find themselves facing insufficient pace pressure to set up their preferred running style. The 1 3/8-mile distance represents uncharted territory for seven of the eight entrants, adding an element of stamina uncertainty that makes pedigree analysis particularly relevant.​

Laurelin

The Irish-bred daughter of Kingman stands as the overwhelming consensus favorite after compiling a remarkable 5-5-1-0 lifetime record that includes a perfect 5-for-5 mark at Aqueduct and perfect placement in six career starts with never finishing worse than second. Trained by Graham Motion for Newstead Stables, Laurelin launched her career with a debut maiden victory going 1 1/16 miles on the turf at Belmont at the Big A on October 13, 2024, then added the Tepin Stakes last November at Aqueduct before receiving a patient five-month winter break.​

She returned in April to capture the Memories of Silver Stakes at Aqueduct before earning her first graded stakes victory in the Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Oaks Invitational on August 9, defeating returning rival Evershed by 1 3/4 lengths while covering 1 3/16 miles. Under regular pilot Kendrick Carmouche, Laurelin tracked in fourth position before improving to third down the backstretch and launching her sustained run in the stretch to pull clear for the decisive victory that earned a 91 Beyer Speed Figure.​

Her lone career defeat came when finishing a game second to Lush Lips in the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland on October 12, where she earned a career-best 103 Equibase Speed Figure that towers over this field. Laurelin saved ground in fourth position as Lush Lips tracked pacesetter Opulent Restraint through opening fractions of 23.23 and 47.70 over good turf. Carmouche shifted her outside down the backstretch and improved to third, but could not reel in the victorious Lush Lips despite a valiant stretch effort, finishing 1 3/4 lengths behind in a final time of 1:48.01 for 1 1/8 miles.​

The distance stretch to 1 3/8 miles represents her longest assignment to date, but her pedigree screams stamina with BRIS average winning distances of 10 furlongs for her sire Kingman and 9 furlongs for her damsire Fastnet Rock. Motion has handled her patiently throughout her career, noting that owners have been extremely patient with her development, and his confidence in stretching her out suggests the barn believes she possesses the stamina for this marathon test.​

Carmouche returns aboard after piloting her in all six lifetime starts, providing valuable continuity and tactical familiarity. The veteran rider knows exactly how to rate this filly through early stages before unleashing her sustained run, and his 18% winning percentage at the current Aqueduct meet demonstrates solid current form. The post 7 draw provides tactical flexibility without forcing any difficult early decisions.​

Motion won this race in 2019 with Film Maker and understands the tactical requirements of marathon turf events at Aqueduct. His patient handling of Laurelin throughout her career, combined with her perfect 5-for-5 Aqueduct record, suggests she saves her best performances for the Big A surface.​

Fionn

The Brad Cox-trained daughter of Twirling Candy represents the most serious threat to Laurelin based on her exceptional resume that includes seven victories in nine career starts and a Grade 1 Belmont Oaks Invitational triumph. Owned by George Messina and Michael Lee, Fionn compiled an impressive six-race winning streak that included the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks where she earned a massive 105 Equibase Speed Figure and 91 Beyer Speed Figure.​

In that signature Belmont Oaks victory on July 5, Fionn demonstrated her trademark late-running style by overcoming a slow start and rallying from well back to nose out favorite Nitrogen in the final strides of the 1 1/8-mile contest. Cox praised her mental maturation, noting she has always been a good mover with light feet and athleticism, but has only recently figured out the mental side of racing. The victory validated her as one of the premier turf fillies in her division.​

She followed that career-defining effort with a half-length score in the Grade 3 Dueling Grounds Oaks at Kentucky Downs in September, rallying from 10th position and 9 3/4 lengths off the pace to defeat Candy Quest with returning rival Hereforagoodtime finishing third. The Kentucky Downs victory demonstrated her ability to overcome a slow start and produce a powerful closing kick even on that unique configuration.​

Her most recent start in the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland on October 12 resulted in her first career off-the-board finish when fourth as the beaten favorite, finishing 4 3/4 lengths behind victorious Lush Lips. She broke slowly and raced last of eight in the early stages, trailing by 10 lengths through the opening stages, and could never mount her typical late rally. The disappointing effort raised questions about whether she maintains her effectiveness when unable to secure a good early position.​

Cox makes a significant equipment change for this assignment by removing blinkers for the first time in her career, suggesting a tactical adjustment designed to help her settle and relax in the early stages rather than fighting for position. The blinkers removal could prove crucial in a marathon event where energy conservation early becomes paramount.​

Flavien Prat returns to ride after piloting her to the Belmont Oaks victory, and his current form at Aqueduct borders on supernatural with 43 wins at the meet and a 64.58% on-the-board strike rate during his recent hot streak. Prat won this race in both 2019 and 2021 and leads all NYRA jockeys with 11 turf stakes wins in 2025. His tactical brilliance and intimate knowledge of Aqueduct’s turf courses provide meaningful advantages.​

The distance stretch to 1 3/8 miles represents her longest career assignment, matching the concern facing Laurelin. However, her pedigree suggests stamina with Twirling Candy as her sire producing runners capable of handling classic distances. The modest pace scenario could pose the biggest concern, as her explosive late kick thrives when chasing strong early fractions that set up her closing punch. Without sufficient early tempo, she may struggle to make up significant ground in the stretch.​​

Fionn carries co-topweight of 122 pounds as a graded stakes winner, the same as Laurelin, Scythian, and Laurelin. The weight assignments should not prove decisive in this marathon event where stamina and tactical positioning matter more than minor weight differentials.​

Scythian

The New York-bred daughter of Tiz the Law brings a Grade 2 Miss Grillo Stakes victory to her resume after prevailing in dramatic fashion at odds of 13-2 on October 5, 2024. Trained by Bill Mott for owner/breeder Lawrence Goichman, Scythian won the Miss Grillo over the Belmont at the Big A turf course at 1 1/16 miles under Junior Alvarado, demonstrating tactical speed to rate near the pace before drawing clear.​

That Grade 2 triumph validated her as a filly with legitimate stakes ability in open company despite her New York-bred status, and the performance came after a runner-up finish in her previous start. The Miss Grillo victory earned her consideration for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, though connections ultimately chose to give her an extended break.​

She returned to action in 2025 after a nine-month absence but has failed to show the same form in two starts, raising questions about whether she has improved during her time away. Neither allowance effort this year has demonstrated the tactical speed and finishing power she displayed when capturing the Miss Grillo, suggesting she may have regressed rather than progressed during her lengthy layoff.​

The distance stretch to 1 3/8 miles represents a significant question mark, as she has never raced beyond 1 1/16 miles in her career. Stretching an additional 5/16ths of a mile while simultaneously rising in class to face the division’s elite presents a substantial challenge. Her pedigree offers some stamina appeal with Tiz the Law as her sire, though he was primarily effective at classic dirt distances rather than marathon turf routes.​

Sahin Civaci takes the riding assignment for trainer Bill Mott, who excels with turf fillies and possesses the patient approach necessary for developing young horses. Mott’s barn strength and tactical expertise make any horse from his stable dangerous, though Scythian appears to need significant improvement to threaten the top tier in this field.​

She receives a 4-pound weight allowance as a non-winner of a graded stakes in 2025, carrying 118 pounds compared to the 122-pound assignments for Laurelin, Fionn, and Laurelin. The rail post draw could prove advantageous if she demonstrates enough early speed to secure good position through the opening stages, though the inside post also limits tactical options if the pace develops unfavorably.​

Scythian represents a logical third choice in the betting but appears a clear cut below the top two fillies based on recent form and the distance/class questions she faces. She fits best as an underneath play in exotics for bettors seeking broader coverage.​

Evershed

The Irish-bred daughter of Churchill represents trainer Arnaud Delacour from post 5 with Dylan Davis returning to ride, and she brings the most appealing pedigree in the field for the marathon 1 3/8-mile distance. Bred by Lynch Bages and Camas Park Stud, Evershed carries the distinguished Aga Khan bloodlines with her dam Balankiya being a winning Darshaan mare, and she is a half-sister to dual group/graded stakes winner Bayrir who captured the Grade 1 Secretariat at 10 furlongs.​

Delacour noted that her pedigree suggests she should want distance and handle 1 1/4 miles or more based on her European family pattern, and her racing style supports that pedigree assessment. She finished a flat fifth on debut when sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs at Laurel Park in October, but immediately improved when stretched to one mile at Tampa Bay Downs in December, graduating by one length after stalking the pace.​

After a brief layoff, she returned on July 9 and showed no signs of rust when stretching to 1 1/16 miles for the first time and capturing a first-level allowance by 1 1/2 lengths at Colonial Downs, earning a career-best 79 Beyer Speed Figure. The effort demonstrated her affinity for added distance and gave Delacour confidence she would handle even longer assignments.​

She made her stakes debut in the Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Oaks Invitational on August 9 and ran a creditable second to then-undefeated Laurelin, finishing 1 3/4 lengths behind after stalking the pace throughout and earning a career-best 91 Beyer Speed Figure for her runner-up effort. The performance validated her ability to compete at graded stakes level and suggested additional distance would suit her running style.​

She returned on September 5 in the Old Dominion Stakes at Colonial Downs as the 6-5 favorite but suffered an upset defeat when As Catch Can ($34.20) slipped up the rail in the final furlong to prevail by three-quarters of a length. Evershed held a one-length advantage at the stretch call but could not withstand the late challenge, though she earned another strong figure for her runner-up finish. Most recently, she finished second on soft turf in the Christiana Stakes at Delaware Park, producing a strong 102 BRIS late pace figure that was just second-best in a slow-paced affair.​

The distance stretch to 1 3/8 miles represents exactly what her pedigree suggests she needs to fulfill her potential, and Delacour has pointed her toward this spot specifically because the marathon trip should accentuate her stamina advantage. She has steadily improved as distances have lengthened, earning better figures at 1 mile than at sprint distances, and showing further improvement when stretched to 1 1/16 miles and beyond.​

Dylan Davis rides for the fourth consecutive start and the combination has produced three runner-up finishes in stakes company, suggesting they have been knocking on the door for a breakthrough stakes victory. Davis brings multiple Grade 1-winning experience and Delacour expressed confidence in leaving tactical decisions to his capable hands.​

She receives a 4-pound weight allowance as a non-winner of a graded stakes, carrying 118 pounds, which could prove meaningful in a marathon event where every pound matters over the final furlong. The post 5 draw provides tactical flexibility to either press forward or stalk depending on how the pace develops.​

Evershed represents excellent longshot value at projected odds of 5-1 or higher based on her breeding for the distance, steady improvement pattern, and the likelihood that this marathon trip suits her running style better than any assignment she has faced to date. The primary concern remains her inability to convert recent runner-up finishes into victories, though the distance stretch could prove the difference.​

Hereforagoodtime

The Brendan Walsh trainee brings consistent form with a 7-for-7 in-the-money record in 2025, demonstrating remarkable reliability without converting that consistency into a major stakes breakthrough. She finished third behind Fionn in the Grade 3 Dueling Grounds Oaks at Kentucky Downs and has faced quality competition throughout her career without finding the winning combination against the division’s elite.​

She gets John Velazquez in the saddle for the first time, providing an upgrade in jockey that could prove meaningful. Velazquez brings Hall of Fame credentials and exceptional tactical skills in turf routes, giving Walsh confidence that his filly will get an optimal trip. The post 2 draw represents a significant improvement over her last two Kentucky starts from the 10-hole, providing better tactical positioning options.​

Hereforagoodtime possesses tactical versatility, able to rate in touch with leaders regardless of the early tempo, which makes her dangerous in various pace scenarios. However, she has dropped two decisions to Fionn and appears slightly behind that filly in terms of pure class and finishing power.​

She receives a 4-pound weight allowance carrying 118 pounds, and her consistent in-the-money record suggests she merits consideration for exotic plays even if victory appears unlikely against Laurelin and Fionn. At projected morning line odds of 18-1 or higher, she offers value as a potential upset candidate if the favorites falter, though her form suggests she fits best as a minor awards candidate.​

National Archive

The Miguel Clement trainee represents the first of two entries from the young trainer’s barn, and she brings proven form over the 1 3/8-mile distance that none of her rivals can match. National Archive won two of three allowance races under Clement’s care, demonstrating tactical early speed that allowed her to secure advantageous positions throughout.​

Most significantly, she represents the only proven runner at 11 furlongs in the field, having navigated that distance successfully in her allowance victory. While that victory came against first-level allowance conditions rather than graded stakes quality, the experience at the distance provides a meaningful advantage as others tackle the marathon trip for the first time.​​

She picks up Manuel Franco for the first time after Flavien Prat chose to ride Fionn instead, representing a significant jockey downgrade despite Franco’s solid current form at the meet. Franco brings 48 starts at the meet with consistent placement statistics, but lacks Prat’s supernatural current form and proven stakes success.​

The daughter represents a significant class test, as jumping from allowance conditions to Grade 3 stakes requires substantial improvement in speed figures and tactical execution. She showed enough early speed in her allowance victories to suggest she could press forward and contest the early pace, but whether she possesses the class to maintain that position against superior competition remains questionable.​

At projected morning line odds around 15-1, National Archive offers longshot value based solely on her proven ability at the distance and tactical early speed that could secure a ground-saving trip. However, the class jump appears significant and she fits best as a trifecta/superfecta inclusion for bettors seeking deep coverage.​

Don’t Jinx It

The Miguel Clement second entry brings tactical early speed and represents a potential pacesetter who could establish the tempo for the race. She wired a field at Saratoga at odds of 39-1 when securing extremely soft early fractions before holding on gamely, demonstrating both tactical speed and the ability to withstand pressure in the stretch.​​

However, that Saratoga victory came after securing uncontested fractions that allowed her to turn the race into a sprint for home, a scenario unlikely to repeat against this graded stakes field. She will face pressure from National Archive and potentially other speed types, forcing her to earn her early position rather than inheriting it cheaply.​

Jaime Rodriguez takes the riding assignment after regular pilot Manny Franco chose to ride stablemate National Archive, suggesting barn preference for the other Clement entry. Rodriguez brings solid experience but lacks the tactical brilliance of elite riders, which could prove costly in a contentious pace scenario.​

The distance stretch to 1 3/8 miles represents a significant question mark for a filly whose lone victory came when she could control soft fractions and turn the race into a sprint. True marathon runners typically demonstrate ability to sustain their efforts deep into races, and Don’t Jinx It has not shown that pattern in her form.​

She receives a 4-pound weight allowance carrying 118 pounds, but appears clearly overmatched against this graded stakes field based on class and speed figures. At projected odds of 15-1 or higher, she fits best as a sacrificial pace presence whose early efforts could set up the race for closers, though she appears unlikely to threaten for victory or even minor awards.​

Unmerited Favor

The Kenneth McPeek trainee makes her stakes debut after winning two consecutive allowance races, showing steady improvement in each start throughout her career. The daughter of Summer Front has been testing elders in maiden and allowance competition, demonstrating tactical ability and consistency without facing the level of competition she encounters here.​

Christopher Elliott takes the riding assignment after Jose Ortiz opted to stay in Kentucky, representing a meaningful jockey downgrade. Elliott brings solid experience at the meet but lacks the tactical brilliance and proven stakes success of elite riders like Prat, Velazquez, or Carmouche.​

Her steady improvement pattern suggests she could continue developing into a stakes-level performer, and McPeek excels at developing young fillies on progressive improvement curves. However, making a stakes debut at the Grade 3 level in a marathon turf event represents an enormous class jump that appears overly ambitious.​

She receives a 4-pound weight allowance carrying 118 pounds, but speed figures suggest she needs substantial improvement to threaten even the secondary contenders in this field. At projected odds of 15-1 or higher, she appears best left out of exotic wagers unless seeking maximum superfecta coverage, as her chances of reaching the first four appear slim against this quality field.​

Speed Figures and Class Analysis

Laurelin’s career-best 103 Equibase Speed Figure from the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup establishes her as the figure standout in this field, with that number achieved against Grade 1 competition including victorious Lush Lips. Her 91 Beyer Speed Figure from the Saratoga Oaks Invitational victory provides additional support for her class edge, and her perfect 5-for-5 Aqueduct record suggests she consistently produces career-best efforts at the Big A.​

Fionn’s massive 105 Equibase Speed Figure from the Belmont Oaks Invitational represents the single highest figure in the field, earned when defeating Grade 1 favorite Nitrogen in a thrilling stretch duel. Her 91 Beyer Speed Figure from that same effort demonstrates consistent excellence across multiple figure services. However, her most recent Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup fourth, where she finished 4 3/4 lengths behind Laurelin’s conqueror Lush Lips, raises questions about current form.​

The head-to-head comparison from Keeneland proves informative, as Laurelin finished second to Lush Lips while Fionn could only manage fourth, with less than a point separating them in final figures. Both fillies failed to hit the board relative to winner Lush Lips, but Laurelin demonstrated superior positioning and finishing power in that common race.​

Evershed earned a career-best 91 Beyer Speed Figure when finishing second to Laurelin in the Saratoga Oaks Invitational, matching Laurelin’s winning figure from that race and demonstrating legitimate graded stakes ability. Her 102 BRIS late pace figure from the Christiana Stakes runner-up finish at Delaware Park suggests strong closing speed, though soft early fractions in that race inflate the late-pace number.​

Scythian’s figures from her 2025 allowance races fall well short of the numbers produced by the top three fillies, and her Grade 2 Miss Grillo victory from October 2024 came at a different track configuration over a year ago. The lengthy layoff and lack of form improvement in two 2025 starts suggest she regressed during her time away, making her figures unreliable for this assignment.​

The remaining contenders bring allowance-level or maiden figures that fall significantly short of graded stakes quality, creating meaningful separation between the top tier and bottom half of this field. Hereforagoodtime represents the best of the secondary tier with consistent in-the-money finishes, but her figures suggest she sits a clear notch below Laurelin, Fionn, and Evershed in terms of pure speed.​

The class analysis reveals a two-filly race between Laurelin and Fionn, with Evershed possessing upset potential if the marathon distance proves advantageous, and meaningful separation to the remainder of the field. Scythian brings Grade 2-winning credentials but has failed to demonstrate improvement in her 2025 campaign, while the remaining fillies bring allowance or maiden form that appears insufficient against this quality.​

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

Aqueduct’s turf courses have been racing fairly in recent days with the outer turf rail positioned at 24 feet, which typically produces more balanced racing conditions than when the rail sits at zero. Track superintendents noted both inner and outer turf courses trending slightly toward the Good side of Firm while maintaining excellent racing conditions, suggesting consistent footing throughout the card.​

Recent route races on the outer turf course have not demonstrated significant inside or outside bias, with winners emerging from various post positions depending on pace dynamics and individual class. The 24-foot rail placement reduces the typical inside advantage while making outside posts more viable than when the rail sits tight to the hedge.​

Post position statistics at Aqueduct favor inside posts 1-6 in turf routes, though the advantage diminishes with the rail out at 24 feet. Outside posts 7 and 8 in an eight-horse field should not face significant disadvantages given the rail placement and the lack of traffic concerns in smaller fields.​

Weather forecasts call for turning cloudy conditions with a high temperature of 40 degrees and potential showers developing late in the afternoon. Track management should maintain the turf courses in Firm to Good condition through the early portions of the card, though handicappers should monitor for any weather-related surface changes that could impact this 2:39 PM post time.​

The 1 3/8-mile configuration on the outer turf course begins near the finish line and requires runners to navigate the clubhouse turn, backstretch, far turn, and stretch, providing ample opportunity for tactical positioning and multiple move opportunities. The extended distance favors horses that can conserve early energy while maintaining contact with the leaders, as opposed to horses that must expend excessive energy securing early position or making up significant ground late.​

Laurelin’s post 7 draw provides tactical flexibility without forcing difficult early decisions, allowing Carmouche to settle her in mid-pack and secure a ground-saving trip before launching her run. The outside post enables him to avoid early traffic while maintaining good position throughout.​

Fionn’s post 4 draw offers ideal positioning for her late-running style, providing sufficient outside room to avoid early traffic while giving Prat options to secure whatever position the pace dictates. The middle post allows maximum tactical flexibility for a filly that typically rates well back before making one sustained run.​

Evershed’s post 5 draw similarly provides excellent tactical positioning, allowing Davis to either press forward and stalk the leaders or rate slightly farther back depending on early tempo. The favorable middle draw enhances her chances significantly in a race where post position could prove decisive.​

Scythian draws the rail in post 1, which could prove advantageous if she demonstrates enough early speed to secure good position without expending excessive energy. However, the rail also limits tactical options if the pace develops unfavorably or if she needs to alter position mid-race.​

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

This Grade 3 event presents a classic two-horse race scenario between Laurelin and Fionn, with meaningful separation to the remainder of the field based on class, speed figures, and accomplishments. Both fillies bring Grade 1 and Grade 2 form lines that tower over their rivals, and both enter off runner-up finishes in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup where they competed against the same field.​

The value proposition centers on identifying which filly offers better risk-adjusted returns given likely odds. Laurelin figures to command favoritism at odds around 8-5 or even money based on her perfect 5-for-5 Aqueduct record and superior recent form compared to Fionn’s disappointing fourth-place finish at Keeneland. Fionn should attract support around 2-1 or 5-2 based on her Grade 1 Belmont Oaks credentials and the powerful Brad Cox/Flavien Prat combination.​

Win Betting Strategy: Laurelin deserves support for win betting based on her perfect Aqueduct record, superior recent form line, and proven ability at distances from 1 mile to 1 3/16 miles. Her 103 Equibase Speed Figure from Keeneland came against Grade 1 competition and establishes her as the class of this field. Carmouche knows her perfectly after six consecutive starts, and Motion’s patient handling suggests he believes she possesses the stamina for this marathon test. A win bet at odds around 8-5 or even money provides fair value on the deserving favorite.

Upset Considerations: Fionn represents legitimate upset potential at projected odds of 2-1 or higher, bringing the powerful Cox/Prat combination and the significant equipment change of removing blinkers for the first time. Cox’s tactical adjustment suggests he believes helping her settle early will unlock her best performance, and Prat’s supernatural current form at Aqueduct cannot be dismissed. The concern remains the modest pace scenario that may not set up her explosive late kick, but the talent level is undeniable. A smaller win bet or strong play in exotics makes sense for those believing she rebounds to her Belmont Oaks form.

Exacta Strategy: The race sets up as a two-horse exacta proposition, with Laurelin and Fionn representing the logical top tier. Boxing Laurelin and Fionn in exactas provides solid coverage of the most likely outcome, with the box returning a profit if either filly hits the board. For larger bettors, wheeling Laurelin over Fionn and wheeling Fionn over Laurelin provides maximum value on the most probable exacta combinations.

Trifecta Strategy: Evershed represents the logical third choice at projected odds of 5-1 or higher, bringing the most appealing pedigree for the marathon distance and steady improvement as races have lengthened. Her three consecutive runner-up finishes in stakes company suggest she has been knocking on the door for a breakthrough, and this extended distance could provide the difference. Trifecta wheels using Laurelin and Fionn on top over each other and Evershed provide excellent coverage.

Scythian fits as a secondary underneath play in trifectas despite her Grade 2 credentials, as recent form suggests regression and the distance/class combination presents significant questions. Include her in broader coverage but reduce exposure compared to Evershed.

Superfecta Strategy: The superfecta offers value opportunities by including Hereforagoodtime at projected odds of 18-1 or higher, as her perfect in-the-money record in 2025 suggests reliability for minor awards even if victory appears unlikely. National Archive provides a proven runner at the distance with tactical early speed, making her viable for the fourth slot despite her class jump.

Constructing superfectas using Laurelin and Fionn in the top two positions, Evershed and Scythian in the third position, and Hereforagoodtime, National Archive, or repeating the top three for the fourth position provides comprehensive coverage while controlling costs.

Value Play: Evershed represents the single best value play in the race at projected odds of 5-1 or higher. Her breeding screams stamina for this marathon distance, she has improved as distances have lengthened throughout her career, and Dylan Davis knows her well after four consecutive starts. The steady pattern of runner-up finishes suggests she has been facing slightly superior competition, and this distance stretch could provide exactly what she needs to break through. Consider win betting for those seeking bigger prices, or aggressive use in exotics for risk-tolerant bettors.

Multi-Race Wagering: This Grade 3 stakes anchors the late pick-4 and pick-5 sequences, and Laurelin deserves single coverage in those multi-race wagers based on her class edge and perfect Aqueduct record. For bettors seeking broader coverage, adding Fionn and possibly Evershed provides protection while controlling costs in the expensive late-card sequences.

Selections and Confidence Levels

Win: Laurelin earns top selection based on her perfect 5-for-5 Aqueduct record, superior recent form line compared to Fionn’s disappointing Keeneland fourth, and the career-best 103 Equibase Speed Figure that towers over this field. Motion has handled her patiently throughout her career with a five-month winter break and careful spacing of races, suggesting he peaks her for important assignments. Carmouche returns aboard after piloting her in all six lifetime starts, providing valuable continuity and tactical familiarity that should prove decisive in a marathon event where pace judgement becomes critical. Her pedigree offers sufficient stamina for the 1 3/8-mile distance with Kingman as her sire and Fastnet Rock as her damsire both producing runners effective at extended distances. The post 7 draw provides tactical flexibility without forcing difficult early decisions, and the modest pace scenario should allow her to secure good stalking position before unleashing her sustained stretch run. She rates 70% confident for victory in a race where she deserves favoritism but faces a legitimate threat from Fionn if that rival rebounds to her best form.​

Place: Fionn represents the most serious threat to Laurelin based on her exceptional resume that includes Grade 1 Belmont Oaks and Grade 3 Dueling Grounds Oaks victories during a six-race winning streak. Her massive 105 Equibase Speed Figure from the Belmont Oaks demonstrates elite ability when firing her best race, and the Brad Cox/Flavien Prat combination brings overwhelming credentials. The significant equipment change of removing blinkers for the first time suggests Cox believes helping her settle early will unlock improved performance in this marathon event. Prat’s supernatural current form at Aqueduct with 43 wins and a 64.58% on-the-board strike rate makes any horse he rides dangerous, and he won this race in both 2019 and 2021 with leads all NYRA jockeys with 11 turf stakes wins in 2025. The primary concerns remain her disappointing fourth-place finish when favored in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup and the modest pace scenario that may not set up her explosive late kick. However, the talent level remains undeniable and she rates 50% confident for victory with higher confidence for exacta placement. The post 4 draw provides ideal positioning for her late-running style.​

Show: Evershed offers the best value in the race at projected odds of 5-1 or higher, bringing the most appealing pedigree for the marathon 1 3/8-mile distance as a half-sister to Grade 1 Secretariat winner Bayrir from the distinguished Aga Khan bloodlines. She has steadily improved as distances have lengthened throughout her career, earning better figures at 1 mile than sprinting and showing further improvement when stretched to 1 1/16 miles at Colonial Downs. Her runner-up finish to Laurelin in the Saratoga Oaks Invitational demonstrated legitimate graded stakes ability while earning a career-best 91 Beyer Speed Figure, and three consecutive stakes runner-up finishes suggest she has been knocking on the door for a breakthrough victory. Delacour specifically targeted this marathon assignment based on her pedigree suggesting she wants 1 1/4 miles or more, and that confidence from connections proves meaningful. Dylan Davis returns aboard after four consecutive starts, providing valuable continuity, and the post 5 draw offers excellent tactical positioning to either stalk or press depending on pace development. She receives a 4-pound weight allowance carrying 118 pounds which could prove meaningful in a marathon event. The primary concern remains her inability to convert recent runner-up finishes into victories, though this distance stretch represents her best opportunity. She rates 30% confident for victory with higher confidence for trifecta inclusion.​

Alternative Exotic Plays: Scythian merits inclusion in broader trifectas based purely on Bill Mott’s training excellence and her Grade 2 Miss Grillo credentials, though recent form suggests she has regressed. Hereforagoodtime fits superfectas based on her perfect 7-for-7 in-the-money record in 2025 and the jockey upgrade to John Velazquez, making her a reliable minor awards candidate. National Archive provides proven form at the 1 3/8-mile distance that none of her rivals match, making her viable for deeper superfecta coverage despite her class jump from allowance ranks.

Race 8

Allowance for 3-year-olds and up on Dirt at 6 1/2 Furlongs, Purse $81,000

Post Time

3:09 PM EST

Pace Analysis

This New York-bred allowance sprint should see contested early fractions with Long Pour and Roofer both showing significant early speed. Long Pour, the Tom’s d’Etat colt, brings legitimate early speed that could establish pressing fractions from post 2, while Roofer from post 3 has demonstrated front-running abilities in recent efforts. The early battle between these two inside speedsters could set up perfectly for closers like Manhattan Twist and Three B’s. The 6 1/2-furlong distance presents a challenging configuration where tactical positioning through the first turn proves critical.​

Key Contenders

Long Pour sits as the deserving 2-1 morning line favorite for trainer Steve Asmussen with Ricardo Santana Jr. riding. The 3-year-old colt finished second in two consecutive quality races at this level over recent months and appears poised for a breakthrough victory. Santana has been riding consistently at the meet and the favorable post 2 draw provides tactical options. The colt shows enough speed to secure stalking position without expending excessive energy, and the slight class edge over most rivals makes him the horse to beat.​

Manhattan Twist represents the powerful Todd Pletcher barn with Flavien Prat aboard from post 1. The Liam’s Map gelding gets a 2-pound weight allowance as a 3-year-old and Prat’s phenomenal current form at Aqueduct makes this combination extremely dangerous. Pletcher excels with New York-breds in these allowance spots, and the rail post could prove advantageous if Long Pour and Roofer engage in an early speed duel. Manhattan Twist shows tactical versatility and rates as a legitimate upset threat at projected odds around 9-2.​

Three B’s enters from post 4 for Linda Rice with Sahin Civaci returning to the saddle. The Collected colt moves up in class after an upset victory from off the pace just two weeks ago, and Rice’s confidence is evident as she re-claimed this colt for significantly more than she lost him for at Saratoga. The gelding loves the Aqueduct surface and could get the perfect setup if Long Pour and Roofer battle early. Civaci’s familiarity with the horse adds appeal.​

Secondary Choices

Roofer draws post 3 for Mitchell Friedman with Ruben Silvera riding. The colt shows legitimate early speed but faces the concern of getting caught up in an early battle with Long Pour since he draws inside rather than outside this time. If they engage early, both could be vulnerable late, though Roofer deserves respect based on recent form.​

Empire Sky represents Reynaldo Yanez from post 6 with Kendrick Carmouche aboard. The 6-year-old gelding brings experience and Carmouche’s strong meet continues, making him a viable exotic inclusion at projected odds around 3-1.​

Corvus, Skytown, and Share the Ludt complete the field but appear overmatched based on class and recent form.​

Betting Strategy

This New York-bred sprint shapes as a competitive allowance event with a likely speed duel setting up for closers. Key Long Pour on top based on consistent form and favorable positioning, but Manhattan Twist with Prat aboard represents serious upset potential at value odds. Use both horses prominently in exactas and trifectas, spreading underneath with Three B’s, Roofer, and Empire Sky. A win bet on Manhattan Twist provides excellent value given Prat’s current dominance, while exacta boxes with Long Pour and Manhattan Twist cover the most likely scenarios. Trifecta wheels can include Three B’s and Empire Sky for broader coverage.

Selections

Win: Manhattan Twist

Place: Long Pour

Show: Three B’s

Race 9

Listed Knickerbocker Stakes for 3-year-olds and up at 1 1/8 Miles on Outer Turf, Purse $150,000

Post Time

3:39 PM EST

Listed Knickerbocker Stakes for three-year-olds and upward at 1 1/8 Miles on the outer turf course. Purse $150,000. Lasix not allowed within 48 hours of post time pursuant to HISA Rule 4212. By subscription of $150 each which should accompany the nomination, $750 to pass the entry box and an additional $750 to start. For horses not originally nominated, a supplemental nomination payment of $750 in addition to the entry and starting fees may be made at any time prior to the closing of entries. Three Year Olds 122 pounds, Older 125 pounds. Non-winners of a Graded Sweepstakes in 2024-25 allowed 2 pounds, of a Sweepstakes in 2025 allowed 4 pounds. Any horse entered as a main track only runner will be assigned the high weight. The New York Racing Association reserves the right to transfer this race to the Main Track. In the event that this race is taken off the turf, it may be subject to downgrading upon review by the Graded Stakes Committee. Closed Saturday, November 1, 2025 with 25 Original Nominations and 1 Supplement. The outer turf rail is positioned at 24 feet.​

This Listed stakes event represents one of the key turf opportunities for older horses on the fall calendar at Aqueduct, providing a stepping stone for horses seeking graded stakes opportunities while offering a competitive purse at a distance that rewards tactical positioning and sustained effort.​​

Running Style and Pace Dynamics

The pace scenario for this 1 1/8-mile outer turf route appears moderate with potential pressure from multiple tactical speedsters. Dear Dad and Fuerteventura from the Antonio Arriaga barn both show early tactical speed from posts 1 and 2, setting up a potential battle for the early lead through the opening stages. Trikari has demonstrated the ability to position himself near the pace from post 3, while Air Recruit brings legitimate tactical speed that trainer Arnaud Delacour specifically plans to utilize to his advantage.​​

Ohana Honor typically races from mid-pack before making a sustained middle move, positioning himself for a stretch run without expending excessive early energy. This running style has proven effective in graded stakes competition and should work well if early fractions remain honest. Bank Frenzy figures to settle well back before unleashing a late closing kick, though he carries main track only status and may not draw into the race depending on turf course conditions.​

The 1 1/8-mile configuration on the outer turf course with the rail at 24 feet should produce relatively fair racing conditions without significant inside or outside bias, allowing horses with various running styles to compete effectively. The moderate pace should favor horses with tactical speed who can secure good position within two or three lengths of the leaders without engaging in taxing early battles, while deep closers may find insufficient tempo to set up their explosive late kicks.​​

Ohana Honor

The 5-year-old Honor Code ridgling stands as the deserving morning line favorite at 7-5 based on his superior class credentials and consistent graded stakes performances throughout his career. Trained by Hall of Famer Shug McGaughey for West Point Thoroughbreds, Woodford Racing LLC, and Edward and Lynne Hudson, Ohana Honor brings a field-best 100 Beyer Speed Figure from his dead-heat for third in the Grade 1 Manhattan Stakes at Saratoga Race Course in 2024.​

He enters this assignment off a three-length fourth-place finish as the favorite in the Grade 2 Sycamore Stakes on October 10 at Keeneland, where he covered 1 1/2 miles and earned a field-best 108 Equibase Speed Figure that towers over this competition. While the fourth-place finish might suggest poor current form, handicappers note he faced an extremely difficult assignment as the lone closer in a race dominated by front-runners who established soft fractions.​​

The Sycamore represented his third start following an extended layoff that stretched from October 2024 to late August 2025, and his pattern suggests steady improvement as he rounds into peak form. He returned from that layoff with a solid effort in the Tapit Stakes at Kentucky Downs on August 28, earning a 99 Equibase Speed Figure in his seasonal debut before improving significantly in his next two starts.​

Prior to his layoff, Ohana Honor captured a 1 1/2-mile allowance at Keeneland in April 2025 under Flavien Prat, demonstrating his affinity for marathon distances and his effectiveness when fresh. That victory came after he finished second in the Grade 2 Man O’War Stakes at Aqueduct in May 2024, where he earned a career-best 117 Beyer Speed Figure that established him as a legitimate Grade 1 performer.​

His lifetime record of 18-3-5-3 with earnings of $553,897 demonstrates remarkable consistency at the graded stakes level, with multiple placings in Grade 1 and Grade 2 company throughout his career. He consistently competes against the division’s elite without breaking through for a major stakes victory, though his runner-up finishes and near-misses suggest he possesses the talent to win at this level when circumstances align favorably.​

Flavien Prat returns to ride after piloting him to his allowance victory in April, and their reunion represents a significant positive given Prat’s supernatural current form at Aqueduct. Prat set a NYRA record with seven wins on November 2 and has maintained that momentum with 43 wins at the current meet, posting a remarkable 64.58% on-the-board strike rate during his hot streak that began in early November. His tactical brilliance and intimate knowledge of Aqueduct’s turf courses provide meaningful advantages in a competitive stakes where positioning proves critical.​

The distance cutback from 1 1/2 miles in the Sycamore to 1 1/8 miles represents an ideal tactical adjustment, as Ohana Honor should find it easier to position himself within striking distance of leaders through honest fractions at the shorter trip. McGaughey’s patient handling suggests he has targeted this spot specifically, giving the ridgling time to recover from the taxing Sycamore effort while maintaining fitness through training at Aqueduct.​

He receives a 4-pound weight allowance carrying 121 pounds as a non-winner of a graded stakes in 2024-25, providing a meaningful advantage compared to the 125-pound highweight assignments for Bank Frenzy and Trikari. The post 4 draw provides ideal tactical positioning for his mid-pack running style, allowing Prat to settle him comfortably while maintaining contact with the early leaders without forcing difficult decisions.​

The primary concern remains his consistent pattern of finishing in the money without breaking through for victories against graded stakes competition, raising questions about whether he possesses the necessary finishing kick to prevail in tight finishes. However, this represents his first opportunity to compete at the Listed stakes level after consistently facing Grade 1 and Grade 2 competition, suggesting the class relief could prove decisive.​​

Air Recruit

The 4-year-old Air Force Blue gelding represents trainer Arnaud Delacour from post 7 with Dylan Davis aboard, and he brings a perfect 2-for-2 record in 2025 that demonstrates significant improvement following an extended absence. Owned by Mark B. Grier, Air Recruit won a 1 1/16-mile optional claimer at Colonial Downs in July before capturing the Oceanport Stakes by a nose at Monmouth Park in August, earning a career-best 92 Beyer Speed Figure in the Colonial victory.​

In both 2025 victories, Air Recruit demonstrated tactical versatility by racing in forward positions, using his natural early speed to secure advantageous placement before holding off late challengers. Delacour specifically noted his plan to utilize that tactical speed to Air Recruit’s advantage in this assignment, suggesting the gelding will attempt to establish position near the early leaders rather than rating far back.​​

His most recent start resulted in a disappointing ninth-place finish in the Grade 3 Mint Million at Kentucky Downs on September 6, where he could never mount a serious rally. However, handicappers and connections both suggest the unique Kentucky Downs configuration did not suit his running style, and the effort should be excused as an aberration. Delacour freshened him following that setback, targeting this Knickerbocker assignment specifically as an ideal spot for him to rebound.​​

The gelding returns from a lengthy 20-month layoff that stretched from November 2023 to July 2025, making his current 2-for-3 record particularly impressive given the extended absence. Prior to that layoff, he finished seventh in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf in November 2023 at Del Mar after setting a taxing pace, suggesting he possesses graded stakes ability when handled correctly.​

The distance stretch to 1 1/8 miles represents his longest career assignment, as he has never competed beyond 1 1/16 miles in six lifetime starts. Delacour expressed confidence that the added distance will suit his running style, and his breeding offers stamina appeal with Air Force Blue as his sire producing runners effective at classic distances.​

Dylan Davis brings multiple graded stakes victories to his resume and has developed strong rapport with Air Recruit through their three starts together in 2025. Davis rides with confidence and tactical awareness, making him well-suited for a forward-placed runner who needs secure positioning without expending excessive energy.​

He carries 123 pounds as a 4-year-old competing against older horses, representing a 2-pound concession from highweight and putting him at a slight disadvantage compared to Ohana Honor’s 121-pound assignment. The post 7 draw provides options for Davis to utilize Air Recruit’s tactical speed to secure good early position without getting caught in traffic, though the outside post also requires him to cover additional ground if he attempts to press the pace.​

Air Recruit represents the most logical upset candidate to Ohana Honor based on his improving form, tactical speed advantage, and the likelihood that his 2025 victories demonstrate genuine ability rather than fluke performances. At projected morning line odds of 3-1, he offers solid value for those believing his Kentucky Downs clunker should be forgiven and that his tactical speed will prove decisive in a moderate pace scenario.​​

Trikari

The 4-year-old Oscar Performance ridgling brings the strongest credentials in the field based on his Grade 1 Belmont Derby Invitational victory and Grade 2 Secretariat Stakes triumph, both achieved during the summer of 2024. Trained by Graham Motion for Amerman Racing, Trikari compiled earnings exceeding $1.4 million through a 14-5-1-4 lifetime record that includes victories at distances ranging from one mile to 1 3/16 miles.​

His Belmont Derby victory on July 6, 2024 over 1 3/16 miles at Belmont at the Big A established him as one of the premier turf horses in his division, and he followed that breakthrough with a decisive 2 1/4-length score in the Grade 2 Secretariat Stakes at Colonial Downs on August 11, earning a career-best 96 Beyer Speed Figure. The Secretariat success came when Motion cut him back to one mile, demonstrating tactical versatility and effectiveness at various distances.​

However, his form has tailed off significantly since those summer highlights, with three consecutive third-place finishes followed by a clunker in his most recent start. He finished third in the Grade 1 Maker’s Mark Mile in April 2025 at Keeneland, third in the Prince George’s County Stakes at Laurel Park in June, and third most recently in a local 1 3/16-mile optional claimer on October 17.​​

The recent allowance third at Aqueduct on October 17 came under circumstances that might excuse the effort, as he pressed a moderate pace before tiring in the late stages of a race where closers dominated. Motion noted the race setup did not favor his running style, and the trainer expressed confidence that Trikari remains capable of competing effectively at the stakes level despite the recent struggles.​​

John Velazquez takes the riding assignment and brings Hall of Fame credentials with exceptional tactical skills that prove particularly valuable on turf routes. Velazquez piloted Trikari to both his Grade 1 Belmont Derby and Grade 2 Secretariat victories, providing valuable continuity and tactical familiarity that should help him secure optimal positioning.​

The post 3 draw offers excellent tactical positioning for a horse that typically rates near the pace before making a sustained run, allowing Velazquez to settle him comfortably while maintaining contact with early leaders. Motion’s patient handling throughout Trikari’s career suggests he peaks when fresh, and the trainer’s confidence in running here indicates belief the ridgling has trained forwardly leading into this assignment.​

He carries topweight of 125 pounds as a graded stakes winner, representing a 4-pound disadvantage compared to Ohana Honor and a 2-pound penalty compared to Air Recruit. The weight differential could prove meaningful in a competitive stakes where multiple horses bring similar ability levels, though Trikari’s class suggests he should handle the assignment if returning to his best form.​

The primary concern remains his failure to win in seven consecutive starts since the Secretariat Stakes, raising questions about whether he has regressed from his peak summer form or simply faced difficult circumstances. At projected morning line odds of 4-1, he offers fair value for those believing Motion has him primed for a return to winning form, though his recent pattern suggests caution until he demonstrates improvement.​​

Signator

The 5-year-old horse brings intriguing recent form after being claimed for $100,000 on September 10 in his first career claiming assignment, representing a significant investment by trainer Panagiotis Synnefias. Since the claim, Signator has competed twice with solid efforts that suggest improvement under new connections, earning competitive speed figures at this Listed stakes level.​

His recent performances include a strong effort where he earned a 105 Equibase Speed Figure, demonstrating legitimate stakes ability despite competing at various class levels throughout his career. The claim by Synnefias suggests the trainer identified value in a horse that might have been misplaced in claiming ranks, and the $100,000 price tag indicates serious confidence in untapped potential.​

Julio Hernandez takes the riding assignment with blinkers added for this start, representing an equipment change that could sharpen his focus and improve his tactical positioning. Hernandez boasts a strong 25% winning percentage with the Synnefias barn over the past five years, suggesting effective communication and tactical understanding between rider and trainer.​

Synnefias has demonstrated consistent success with claimed horses, producing five winners from 18 claims over recent years, indicating his ability to identify horses that improve when moved to his barn. The barn’s patient handling and tactical placement make Signator a legitimate threat if the class relief from graded stakes to Listed stakes proves sufficient.​

He carries 123 pounds with the blinkers-on notation, representing a 2-pound concession from highweight while sitting 2 pounds above Ohana Honor. The post 6 draw provides decent tactical positioning without forcing difficult early decisions, allowing Hernandez to assess the pace before committing to a specific tactical approach.​

At projected morning line odds of 8-1 or higher, Signator represents excellent longshot value based on his recent figures, new connections showing confidence through the significant claim price, and the class relief from his recent assignments. He fits best as an underneath play in exotics for bettors seeking deeper coverage at value prices.​

Naptown

The 4-year-old gelding represents trainer Jose Magana with Manuel Franco aboard, bringing consistent recent form that handicappers suggest appears better than surface examination indicates. Franco’s strong meet at Aqueduct with 48 starts and solid placement statistics adds appeal, as he has demonstrated ability to secure optimal trips on turf routes throughout the fall.​

Recent performances show Naptown competing gamely in similar company, though he appears slightly behind the top tier in terms of pure speed figures and class accomplishments. Handicappers note he has faced difficult trip scenarios in recent starts that might have compromised his finishing positions, suggesting his true ability exceeds what bare results indicate.​

The post 8 draw presents challenges in a nine-horse field, as the outside position forces Franco to make early decisions about positioning without benefit of seeing how the pace develops inside. However, Franco’s tactical skills provide confidence he can overcome the draw if Naptown brings his best effort.​

He carries 121 pounds with weight concessions, matching Ohana Honor’s assignment and providing advantages compared to highweights Trikari and Bank Frenzy. At projected odds of 8-1, Naptown offers potential value if recent form proves more meaningful than speed figures suggest, though he appears best suited for deeper exotic coverage rather than win betting.​

Dear Dad

The 5-year-old gelding represents trainer Antonio Arriaga from the rail post with Jaime Rodriguez riding, bringing one of two entries from the Arriaga barn. As a graded stakes-placed runner, Dear Dad possesses some class credentials, though recent form suggests he has fallen short of his best performances.​

The rail post could prove advantageous if Dear Dad demonstrates enough early speed to secure position without getting trapped along the hedge, though the inside draw also limits tactical options if the pace develops unfavorably. Rodriguez brings solid experience but lacks the tactical brilliance of elite riders like Prat, Velazquez, or Davis.​

He carries 121 pounds with weight concessions, matching the lighter assignments in the field and providing advantages compared to highweights. At projected morning line odds of 10-1, Dear Dad offers longshot potential if early speed from the rail proves advantageous, though he appears outclassed based on recent figures.​

Fuerteventura

The 6-year-old gelding gives Arriaga a second entry from post 2 with Ruben Silvera aboard, bringing graded stakes placings to his resume without demonstrating the consistency necessary to threaten at this level. Recent form shows him competing in similar company without producing performances that suggest he can upset this field.​

The post 2 draw provides decent tactical positioning for a horse that typically races near the pace, though Silvera will need to navigate through potential early traffic if Dear Dad from post 1 shows speed. He carries 121 pounds with weight concessions, matching the lighter assignments while lacking the class to exploit that advantage.​

At projected morning line odds of 15-1, Fuerteventura appears best left out of exotic wagers unless seeking maximum superfecta coverage, as recent form and figures suggest he sits well behind the competitive tier.​

Ohio Joe

The 3-year-old gelding represents the lone sophomore in the field, facing elders for trainer Louis Linder Jr. with Anthony Salgado riding from post 5. As a stakes winner earlier in his career, Ohio Joe possesses some credentials, though facing older graded stakes performers represents a significant class challenge.​

He receives weight concessions carrying just 120 pounds as a 3-year-old, providing a 5-pound advantage over highweights and meaningful relief in a route event. The middle post 5 draw offers tactical flexibility, though Salgado’s limited experience at this level presents concerns about securing optimal positioning.​

At projected morning line odds of 30-1, Ohio Joe appears overmatched against this quality field based on class and recent form, making him best avoided in all but the deepest superfecta constructions.​

Bank Frenzy

The 5-year-old gelding carries main track only status, meaning he only draws into the race if weather forces the contest off the turf onto the main dirt track. If drawing in, he would carry topweight of 125 pounds and represent trainer Rudy Rodriguez with Manuel Franco riding from post 9.​

His presence as a main track only runner suggests connections view him as better suited for dirt than turf, though the supplemental nomination indicates willingness to take a chance if conditions favor a main track transfer. At projected odds of even money on the dirt, he would represent the favorite in a completely different race configuration.​

For handicapping purposes on the turf, Bank Frenzy should be excluded from analysis unless weather forecasts strongly suggest the race will be transferred to the main track.​

Speed Figures and Class Analysis

Ohana Honor’s field-best 108 Equibase Speed Figure from the Grade 2 Sycamore Stakes and career-best 117 Beyer Speed Figure from the Grade 2 Man O’War establish him as the clear figure leader in this Listed stakes event. His consistent ability to earn triple-digit figures in graded stakes company demonstrates class that towers over this field, and the figures earned against Grade 1 and Grade 2 competition validate him as a legitimate top-level performer stepping down in class.​

Air Recruit’s career-best 92 Beyer Speed Figure from his Colonial Downs optional claimer victory represents solid form at this level, and his perfect 2-for-2 record in 2025 suggests improving trajectory that could produce career-best numbers. His figures fall short of Ohana Honor’s best efforts but compare favorably to others in this field, particularly given his limited racing experience following the lengthy layoff.​

Trikari’s career-best 96 Beyer Speed Figure from the Grade 2 Secretariat Stakes victory demonstrates legitimate graded stakes ability, though that effort came more than a year ago during his peak summer form. His recent figures have declined significantly, with his October allowance third producing numbers well below his previous standards, raising questions about current form compared to past accomplishments.​​

Signator’s 105 Equibase Speed Figure since being claimed for $100,000 suggests he possesses competitive ability at this Listed stakes level, though the single strong figure requires validation through additional performances. New connections demonstrating confidence through the significant claim price provides optimism he can reproduce or exceed that figure.​

The remaining contenders bring figures that fall meaningfully short of the top tier, creating clear separation between Ohana Honor, Air Recruit, Trikari, and Signator compared to the bottom half of the field. Naptown’s figures suggest competitiveness in allowance company without demonstrating the necessary improvement to threaten genuine stakes performers.​​

The class analysis reveals Ohana Honor as the lone horse with proven Grade 1 and Grade 2 credentials throughout his career, having consistently competed against divisional leaders without breaking through for major victories. The class relief from Grade 2 to Listed stakes represents his best opportunity to secure a breakthrough stakes victory, as he faces softer competition than his typical assignments.​

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

Aqueduct’s outer turf course with the rail positioned at 24 feet has been racing fairly in recent days without demonstrating significant inside or outside bias. Track superintendents noted both inner and outer turf courses trending slightly toward the Good side of Firm while maintaining excellent racing conditions, suggesting consistent footing that should hold throughout the card.​

The 24-foot rail placement reduces the typical inside advantage while making outside posts more viable than when the rail sits tight to the hedge. Recent route races on the outer turf course have produced winners from various post positions depending on pace dynamics and individual class rather than demonstrating predictable bias patterns.​

Post position statistics at Aqueduct favor inside posts 1-6 in turf routes under normal circumstances, though the advantage diminishes substantially with the rail out at 24 feet. Outside posts 7 through 9 should not face significant disadvantages in this nine-horse field given the rail placement and the relative lack of traffic concerns compared to larger fields.​

Weather forecasts call for turning cloudy conditions with a high temperature of 40 degrees and potential showers developing late in the afternoon. The 3:39 PM post time places this race near the end of the card when weather-related surface changes could materialize if afternoon precipitation develops as forecast. Track management should maintain turf courses in Firm to Good condition through most of the card, though handicappers should monitor track announcements for any late changes.​

The 1 1/8-mile configuration on the outer turf course begins near the clubhouse turn and requires runners to navigate approximately five furlongs down the backstretch before entering the far turn and stretch. The extended backstretch run provides ample opportunity for tactical positioning and allows trainers to employ various pace strategies without forcing immediate positioning decisions.​

Ohana Honor’s post 4 draw represents ideal positioning for his mid-pack running style, allowing Prat to settle him comfortably while maintaining visual contact with early leaders without forcing difficult decisions. The middle post provides maximum tactical flexibility for a horse that typically rates three to four lengths off the pace before making a sustained run.​

Air Recruit’s post 7 draw offers options for Davis to utilize his tactical speed to secure forward position, though the outside post requires covering additional ground if pressing the pace. Delacour’s stated intention to use Air Recruit’s tactical speed suggests Davis will attempt to secure position near the leaders despite the outside draw.​

Trikari’s post 3 draw provides excellent tactical positioning for Velazquez to rate him near the pace without expending excessive energy securing position. The inside-to-middle draw works perfectly for a horse that typically stalks within two lengths of leaders before making a sustained run.​

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

This Listed stakes event presents a competitive scenario where the class standout Ohana Honor faces legitimate threats from improving Air Recruit and proven graded stakes winner Trikari, with Signator offering longshot value as a recent claim showing improvement. The moderate pace should favor horses with tactical speed who secure good position, potentially disadvantaging deep closers seeking strong early tempo.​​

Win Betting Strategy: Ohana Honor deserves favoritism based on his superior class credentials, field-best speed figures, and the powerful Shug McGaughey/Flavien Prat combination that brings Hall of Fame training expertise and supernatural current riding form. His pattern of consistent graded stakes placings without victories raises questions about his ability to close effectively, but this represents his first opportunity to compete at the Listed stakes level after facing Grade 1 and Grade 2 competition throughout his career. The class relief should prove decisive if he reproduces efforts anywhere near his 108 Equibase Speed Figure from the Sycamore or his 117 Beyer from the Man O’War.​​

A win bet at projected morning line odds of 7-5 or 3-2 provides fair value on the deserving favorite, though aggressive bettors might wait to see if odds drift higher before committing significant funds. Prat’s record-setting form at Aqueduct adds meaningful value to any horse he rides, as his 64.58% on-the-board strike rate during this hot streak suggests he maximizes every mount’s potential.​

Upset Considerations: Air Recruit represents the most logical upset candidate at projected odds of 3-1, bringing improving 2025 form, tactical speed advantage, and trainer confidence that the distance stretch suits his running style. Delacour’s specific plan to utilize Air Recruit’s tactical speed suggests he views the moderate pace scenario as ideal for his charge to secure position and control the race flow. The Kentucky Downs clunker should be forgiven based on the unique configuration, and his two victories earlier in the year demonstrate genuine ability rather than flukes.​​

A win bet at 3-1 or higher provides excellent value for those believing Air Recruit continues his improvement pattern and that tactical speed proves decisive in this pace scenario. Davis knows the horse well after three starts together and should secure optimal positioning from post 7.​

Trikari merits upset consideration at projected 4-1 odds based purely on his Grade 1 Belmont Derby and Grade 2 Secretariat credentials, though recent form raises serious questions about whether he has regressed. The Velazquez riding change provides an upgrade, and Motion’s confidence in running suggests the ridgling has trained forwardly. However, seven consecutive starts without victory since August 2024 makes him a risky win bet despite his class.​​

Exacta Strategy: The race sets up as a three-horse exacta proposition between Ohana Honor, Air Recruit, and Trikari, with Signator offering longshot value underneath. Boxing Ohana Honor and Air Recruit provides solid coverage of the two most likely winners, with the box returning profit if either hits the board. For larger bettors, wheeling Ohana Honor over Air Recruit, Trikari, and Signator maximizes value on probable outcomes while controlling costs.​

Reverse exacta wheels using Air Recruit over Ohana Honor and Trikari provide coverage of the upset scenario where the improving gelding defeats the graded stakes performers. Trikari should be included in exacta plays despite form concerns, as his class suggests he remains capable of reaching the first two positions even if victory appears unlikely.​

Trifecta Strategy: Signator represents the logical fourth choice at projected odds of 8-1 or higher, bringing recent improvement since being claimed and trainer confidence demonstrated through the $100,000 investment. Trifecta wheels using Ohana Honor and Air Recruit on top over each other, Trikari, and Signator provide excellent coverage while controlling costs.​

For those believing Trikari’s class will shine through despite recent struggles, trifecta boxes including Ohana Honor, Air Recruit, and Trikari cover the three horses with the strongest credentials. Adding Signator in the fourth position creates deeper coverage at reasonable cost given his longshot odds.​

Superfecta Strategy: Naptown offers potential value in the fourth superfecta slot based on handicapper analysis suggesting his form appears better than surface examination indicates. Constructing superfectas using Ohana Honor and Air Recruit in the top two positions, Trikari and Signator in the third slot, and Naptown, Dear Dad, or repeating top choices for the fourth position provides comprehensive coverage.​

The relatively small field of nine horses (eight if Bank Frenzy scratches as main track only) makes superfecta coverage affordable, allowing bettors to spread tickets across multiple scenarios without excessive costs.​

Value Play: Signator represents the single best value play in the race at projected odds of 8-1 or higher based on his 105 Equibase Speed Figure since being claimed, new connections demonstrating confidence through the significant $100,000 claim price, and the Synnefias barn’s proven success with claimed horses. The equipment change adding blinkers suggests tactical adjustments designed to improve focus and positioning, and Hernandez’s 25% winning percentage with the barn indicates effective partnership.​

Consider win betting for extreme risk-tolerant bettors seeking big prices, or aggressive use in exactas and trifectas for those believing the claim unlocked untapped potential. The class relief from his recent assignments to Listed stakes level could prove meaningful if he reproduces his best recent figure.​

Multi-Race Wagering: This Listed stakes anchors late pick-4 and pick-5 sequences alongside the Grade 3 Jockey Club Oaks in Race 7. Ohana Honor deserves single coverage in multi-race wagers based on his class edge and Prat’s phenomenal form, though Air Recruit provides protection for those seeking broader coverage while controlling costs. Spreading to include Trikari and Signator creates deeper tickets for players willing to accept increased variance.​

Selections and Confidence Levels

Win: Ohana Honor earns top selection based on his superior class credentials that include consistent graded stakes placings throughout his career, field-best 108 Equibase Speed Figure from the Grade 2 Sycamore Stakes, and career-best 117 Beyer Speed Figure from the Grade 2 Man O’War Stakes that establish him as a legitimate Grade 1 performer. His pattern of third-off-a-layoff improvement suggests he rounds into peak form following extended breaks, and this represents his third start since returning from a lengthy absence in August. The class relief from Grade 2 competition to Listed stakes provides his best opportunity to secure a breakthrough stakes victory after consistent near-misses against divisional leaders. Flavien Prat returns aboard after piloting him to his April allowance victory, and Prat’s supernatural current form at Aqueduct with 43 wins and a 64.58% on-the-board strike rate makes any horse he rides dangerous. The jockey’s record-setting seven-win card on November 2 demonstrates he operates at peak performance, and his tactical brilliance should secure optimal positioning from the ideal post 4 draw. Shug McGaughey’s Hall of Fame training expertise and patient handling throughout Ohana Honor’s career suggest he has targeted this specific assignment, giving the ridgling time to recover from the taxing Sycamore effort while maintaining fitness. The distance cutback from 1 1/2 miles to 1 1/8 miles represents a tactical advantage, as he should find it easier to position himself within striking distance without expending excessive energy. He rates 65% confident for victory in a competitive Listed stakes where he deserves favoritism but faces legitimate threats from improving Air Recruit and proven Trikari.​​

Place: Air Recruit represents the most serious threat to Ohana Honor based on his perfect 2-for-2 record in 2025, improving form trajectory, and tactical speed advantage that should prove decisive in a moderate pace scenario. Arnaud Delacour’s specific plan to utilize Air Recruit’s tactical speed suggests confidence the gelding can control race flow and secure advantageous positioning without expending excessive early energy. His career-best 92 Beyer Speed Figure from the Colonial Downs optional claimer victory demonstrates legitimate stakes ability, and his nose score in the Oceanport Stakes at Monmouth Park validated that figure wasn’t a fluke performance. The Kentucky Downs clunker in the Grade 3 Mint Million should be forgiven based on the unique configuration not suiting his running style, and Delacour’s decision to freshen him following that effort suggests he recognized the race didn’t represent his true ability. Dylan Davis brings multiple graded stakes victories and has developed strong rapport with Air Recruit through three starts together, providing continuity and tactical familiarity. The post 7 draw offers options to press forward despite the outside position, and Davis possesses the tactical awareness to cover the additional ground efficiently. His lightweight assignment of 123 pounds provides a 2-pound advantage over Trikari’s highweight while sitting just 2 pounds above Ohana Honor. The distance stretch to 1 1/8 miles represents his longest career assignment, but Delacour’s confidence in the added distance suits his breeding appeal with Air Force Blue producing runners effective at classic distances. He rates 45% confident for victory with higher confidence for exacta placement at projected odds of 3-1, offering excellent value compared to the deserving favorite.​​

Show: Trikari merits show selection based purely on his Grade 1 Belmont Derby Invitational and Grade 2 Secretariat Stakes credentials that demonstrate proven ability to compete and defeat quality graded stakes competition. Despite recent form showing decline with seven consecutive starts without victory, his peak performances from summer 2024 established him as a legitimate top-level turf router with career earnings exceeding $1.4 million. Graham Motion’s patient handling throughout his career suggests he peaks when fresh, and the trainer’s confidence in running here indicates belief the ridgling has trained forwardly leading into this assignment despite the disappointing recent efforts. John Velazquez returns aboard after piloting him to both his Grade 1 and Grade 2 victories, providing valuable continuity and tactical familiarity that should help secure optimal positioning from the favorable post 3 draw. The Hall of Fame rider’s exceptional tactical skills prove particularly valuable on turf routes where positioning decisions prove critical, and Velazquez possesses the experience to rate Trikari appropriately through various pace scenarios. Motion won this race previously and understands the tactical requirements of Listed stakes at Aqueduct, suggesting his decision to point Trikari here represents careful placement rather than desperation. The primary concerns remain his failure to win in seven consecutive starts and declining speed figures that suggest regression from his peak form, raising questions about whether he can recapture the brilliance displayed in his summer victories. However, his class suggests he should reach the trifecta even if lacking the finishing kick necessary for victory, and the topweight assignment of 125 pounds shouldn’t prevent him from securing a minor award if running to form. He rates 30% confident for victory with substantially higher confidence for trifecta inclusion at projected odds of 4-1, making him essential coverage in all exotic wagers despite form concerns.​​

Alternative Exotic Plays: Signator merits aggressive trifecta and superfecta inclusion based on his 105 Equibase Speed Figure since being claimed for $100,000, new connections demonstrating confidence through the significant investment, and Panagiotis Synnefias’s proven track record of improving claimed horses. At projected odds of 8-1 or higher, he offers exceptional value as a fourth choice who brings competitive figures and equipment changes designed to enhance performance. Naptown fits superfectas based on handicapper analysis suggesting his form appears better than surface results indicate, and Manuel Franco’s strong current form at Aqueduct adds appeal despite the challenging post 8 draw. For maximum coverage, include Dear Dad as an extreme longshot with tactical early speed from the rail that could produce surprise results if the pace setup proves favorable.​

Race 10

Maiden Special Weight for 2-year-old fillies at 1 1/16 Miles on Turf, Purse $85,000

Post Time

4:09 PM EST

Pace Analysis

This maiden turf route for juvenile fillies should see moderate early fractions with Quality Street, Just Tell Anne, and Delightful Darling potentially establishing early positioning. The pace scenario appears relatively tame given the inexperience level and route distance, which should favor fillies with tactical speed and stamina breeding. Isadora Duncan and Libero from the Chad Brown barn both figure to rate off the pace before making sustained late moves, setting up a scenario where class and breeding prove decisive.​

Key Contenders

Mis Brunellas draws post 1 for Bill Mott with John Velazquez aboard. The powerful Mott/Velazquez combination demands respect in maiden turf routes, where Mott’s patient preparation typically shines. The rail post provides tactical options and Velazquez brings elite experience at rating young fillies through early stages. Handicappers rate this filly as a legitimate contender based on breeding and barn strength, making her a co-favorite with the Brown fillies.​

Isadora Duncan represents Chad Brown from post 12 with Flavien Prat riding. Brown leads all trainers nationally in turf stakes wins and excels with this exact type of maiden route runner. Prat’s phenomenal current form at Aqueduct makes any Brown/Prat combination a serious threat, despite the outside post 12 draw in a 13-horse field. The filly brings impeccable breeding and Brown’s second-time-out runners typically show significant improvement. Public support figures to make her a co-favorite with projected odds around even money or slight favorite.​

Libero gives Brown a second entry from post 5 with Manuel Franco riding. Franco has been riding consistently at the meet with strong placement percentages, and Brown often wins these races with his secondary entry. The middle post provides excellent tactical positioning and Franco excels at rating young turf runners. This filly merits serious consideration in all exotics based on barn strength alone.​

Just Tell Anne draws post 6 for Raymond Handal with Kendrick Carmouche aboard. Handicappers rate this filly as a co-feature on main tickets based on tactical positioning and breeding for the distance. Carmouche’s strong meet continues and the favorable middle post works well for a filly making her second career start. She represents solid value in exotics.​

Secondary Choices

Siouxse sits at post 8 for Graham Motion with Jaime Rodriguez riding. Motion excels with developing turf fillies and this one brings breeding appeal for the route distance. Public support figures to make her competitive, though she appears a cut below the top tier based on barn strength.​

Sharing Wisdom draws post 3 for Kenneth McPeek with Christopher Elliott aboard. The GB-bred filly brings European breeding for the distance and McPeek typically ships quality when coming to Aqueduct. She merits exotic consideration.​

Perfect Twirl, Abigail, Delightful Darling, Banco Di Sicilia, Atlantic Beach, Quality Street, and Cravings complete the large field, with most facing difficult trips or appearing overmatched based on breeding and connections.​

Betting Strategy

This competitive maiden turf route features elite trainers and quality breeding throughout the field. Key the Brown and Mott fillies prominently in all wagers, as their barn strength and jockey power prove overwhelming in these spots. Exacta boxes with Isadora Duncan, Libero, and Mis Brunellas cover the most likely scenarios, while adding Just Tell Anne creates deeper coverage. Win betting on Isadora Duncan makes sense despite the outside post given Prat’s current dominance and Brown’s turf expertise. Trifecta wheels using the Brown/Mott fillies over secondary choices like Just Tell Anne, Siouxse, and Sharing Wisdom provide solid value opportunities.

Selections

Win: Isadora Duncan

Place: Mis Brunellas

Show: Libero

Jockey Notes and Insights

Flavien Prat continues an extraordinary hot streak at Aqueduct that ranks among the most dominant stretches by any rider in recent memory. Prat set a NYRA record with seven wins from 10 mounts on November 2, including six consecutive victories, and has maintained that momentum throughout the meet with 43 wins. His on-the-board strike rate during this stretch reached 64.58%, and he has surpassed his entire 2024 win total with 262 winners through November 10. Prat leads all NYRA jockeys with 11 turf stakes wins in 2025, four more than any other rider, and won the Jockey Club Oaks in both 2019 and 2021. His current form makes him a must-use rider in races 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, and 9 on this card.​

Kendrick Carmouche ranks third at the current Aqueduct meet with 40 wins and maintains an impressive 18% winning percentage. Carmouche excels with speed-riding tactics and shows particular effectiveness in claiming races and allowance events. His tactical skills make him valuable in races 2, 3, 5, 7, and 10 on this card.​

Manuel Franco sits second at the meet with 48 starts and strong placement statistics. Franco brings tactical versatility and works particularly well with Pletcher and Brown runners, making him dangerous in races 1, 6, 9, and 10. His ability to rate young horses proves valuable in the maiden turf route.​

Ricardo Santana Jr. brings consistency to the meet with 50 starts and a solid 10% winning percentage. Santana excels at securing tactical position in competitive races and shows effectiveness with Asmussen and Martin runners. He merits attention in races 1, 2, 3, 5, and 8.​

John Velazquez provides elite experience and tactical brilliance, particularly in turf routes and stakes races. Velazquez ranks among the best riders nationally at rating young horses and securing optimal trips in traffic. He brings value in races 4, 6, 7, 9, and 10 with quality mounts throughout.​

Javier Castellano offers veteran savvy and excels in competitive allowance and stakes events. His tactical positioning proves particularly effective at Aqueduct where early positioning through turns proves critical. Consider his mounts in races 1, 6, and 10.​

Trainer Notes and Insights

Todd Pletcher brings elite barn strength to races 4 and 8 with multiple entries in the maiden turf route and a live contender in the New York-bred allowance sprint. Pletcher’s patient preparation with young turf horses typically produces strong results, and his New York-bred runners consistently outperform expectations in allowance conditions. Manhattan Twist in race 8 represents a particularly strong play given Pletcher’s success rate at placing horses in optimal spots.​

Chad Brown leads all trainers nationally in turf stakes wins and brings multiple entries to the maiden turf routes in races 4 and 10. Brown’s second-time-out runners show remarkable improvement, and his combination with Prat proves devastating at Aqueduct. Boss Henry in race 4 and Isadora Duncan in race 10 both merit serious consideration based purely on barn strength and jockey power.​

Brad Cox excels when shipping to Aqueduct and brings quality runners in races 2, 7, and potentially others. His combination with Prat in the Jockey Club Oaks makes Fionn a legitimate upset threat despite Laurelin’s perfect Aqueduct record. Take Me to Londyn in race 2 represents a dangerous shipper given Cox’s effectiveness at placing horses in winnable spots.​

Bill Mott demonstrates consistent excellence with maiden turf routes and allowance horses throughout this card. Royal Quest in race 4 and Mis Brunellas in race 10 both deserve respect based on Mott’s patient preparation and barn depth. His runners typically peak when ready and show consistent improvement from race to race.​

Rick Dutrow Jr. brings quality New York-breds to races 1 and 3, with both getting elite jockey Flavien Prat. Dutrow excels with allowance-level horses and his combination with Prat cannot be dismissed. Cathedral Aisle in race 1 and Ican in race 3 both represent strong plays based on trainer placement and jockey power.​

Linda Rice consistently places horses in spots where they can succeed, particularly with claimers and New York-breds. Her confidence in Three B’s in race 8, evidenced by re-claiming the colt for significantly more than she lost him for, suggests barn optimism. Rice’s local knowledge and tactical placement make her runners dangerous at fair odds.​

Steve Asmussen ships quality stock to Aqueduct and Long Pour in race 8 represents a breakthrough candidate after consecutive runner-up finishes. Asmussen’s national barn strength and combination with Santana Jr. demands respect in competitive allowance conditions.​

Graham Motion trains both contenders in the Jockey Club Oaks and Knickerbocker Stakes with Laurelin and Trikari respectively. Motion’s patience with developing horses and proven success in turf stakes makes his entries live threats in both features. Laurelin’s perfect 5-for-5 record at Aqueduct demonstrates Motion’s skill at placing horses where they excel.​

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The key to this card centers on leveraging Flavien Prat’s extraordinary current form while identifying spots where his mounts offer value against vulnerable favorites. Prat rides in eight races and his on-the-board percentage of 64.58% during this hot streak suggests aggressive play on all his mounts.​

Race 1 offers value on Cathedral Aisle with Prat aboard at projected odds around 3-1, as the outside post concern is overblown given Prat’s tactical brilliance. A win bet provides solid value, while exacta boxes with Island Charm cover the favorite.​

Race 2 presents a difficult spot where the favorite Tough Love Torres appears vulnerable if Take Me to Londyn and the Cox/Prat combination fire. Consider upset plays on Take Me to Londyn in exactas and trifectas, as the projected 9-2 odds offer value.​

Race 3 represents the strongest Prat play of the day on Ican, who gets a favorable weight concession and post position in a competitive allowance field. A win bet at projected 9-2 odds provides excellent value given Prat’s current dominance.​