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Wednesday’s eight-race card at Belmont at the Big A represents a make-up day following the cancellation of October 12 due to severe weather. The card features a solid mix of claiming races, maiden events, and allowance conditions with competitive fields throughout the afternoon.
Weather Forecast and Track Conditions
Morning showers are expected to clear by early afternoon, with temperatures reaching near 60°F by first post. The National Weather Service forecasts an 80% chance of rain through early morning, dropping to scattered showers with a 20% chance by post time. Track conditions should improve throughout the day, with the main track expected to be fast to good and turf courses potentially affected by morning moisture.
Several turf races have temporary rail settings – Race 4 at 9 feet, Race 5 at 36 feet, Race 7 at 9 feet, and Race 8 at 36 feet. These rail adjustments indicate track management is preparing for potentially softer turf conditions from overnight rain.
Race-by-Race Analysis
Race 1 – $33,000 Claiming, 1 Mile Dirt (1:10 PM)
Key Contenders:
Confabulation leads the morning line at 7-2 and gets the nod from Racing Dudes handicappers. The Michelle Nevin trainee shows consistent form and should appreciate the one-mile distance. Luis Rivera Jr. has been riding well at the meet and this gelding fits the class level perfectly.
Flat On opens as the 5-2 favorite with Ruben Silvera aboard. The Rodriguez trainee has been competitive at this level and the rail position could prove advantageous if the track is still holding moisture from morning rain.
Secondary Choices:
Funny Uncle at 7-2 offers value with Lane Luzzi riding for Carlos Figueroa Jr. The five-year-old gelding has shown improvement in recent starts and could benefit from a pace setup.
Longshots to Consider:
First of His Name at 5-1 represents solid value with Jaime Rodriguez taking the call. The four-year-old has been knocking on the door and Wayne Potts horses often improve off layoffs.
Pace Analysis: Expect a moderate pace with Brown Don’t Stop and Collect From Ike likely to show early speed if they avoid scratches. The pace should set up well for closers like Knox and Awesome Empire.
Wagering Strategy: Confabulation on top in exactas with Flat On, Funny Uncle, and First of His Name.
Race 2 – $52,000 Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile Dirt (1:40 PM)
Key Contenders:
Apalta stands out as the 5-2 morning line choice for Todd Pletcher with Flavien Prat in the irons. The three-year-old colt by Nyquist has been working well for the Hall of Fame trainer and this represents an ideal spot for a breakthrough performance.
Extrasensory brings Chad Brown’s powerful stable into play with Manuel Franco riding. The three-year-old colt has been competitive in similar spots and Brown’s maiden winners often improve dramatically second time out.
Secondary Choices:
Kavanaugh for Bruce Brown could offer value at longer odds. The three-year-old has shown promise in previous efforts and Luis Rivera Jr. knows the track well.
Metatron represents the only older horse in the field and his experience could prove valuable in a race full of developing three-year-olds.
Pace Analysis: Look for Private Flight and Porosity to set a reasonable pace, which should favor the more talented closers in the field.
Wagering Strategy: Apalta keyed on top with Extrasensory and Kavanaugh underneath in trifectas.
Race 3 – $31,000 Claiming, 6½ Furlongs Dirt (2:10 PM)
Key Contenders:
Smilensaycheese gets the Racing Dudes selection at 5-2 with José Lezcano riding for Linda Rice. The three-year-old colt shows tactical speed and the sprint distance should suit his style perfectly.
Backtrack brings Richard Dutrow Jr.’s barn into the mix with Lane Luzzi aboard. The three-year-old has been training well and could surprise at a price.
Secondary Choices:
Dialbolico for Patrick Quick represents solid value with Ruben Silvera taking the call. The four-year-old gelding has been competitive at this level recently.
Longshots to Consider:
Senor Pickles with Ricardo Santana Jr. could provide exotic value. The four-year-old has shown flashes of ability and Michelle Giangiulio’s horses often run well fresh.
Pace Analysis: Expect Mackville and Dark Vector to show early speed, setting up a potential pace collapse scenario for late-running types.
Wagering Strategy: Smilensaycheese to win with exacta combinations including Backtrack and Dialbolico.
Race 4 – $45,000 Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles Turf (2:45 PM)
Key Contenders:
Real Savvy gets strong support from Racing Dudes at 7-2 with Joel Rosario for Miguel Clement. The three-year-old colt has shown promise on the grass and the added distance should benefit his running style.
Landman Friday brings Flavien Prat and Danny Gargan’s stable into the mix. The three-year-old has been working well on the turf and could offer value at morning line odds.
Gotta Guy leads the overseas betting favorites at 3-1. The three-year-old has been competitive in similar company and Kendrick Carmouche’s aggressive style could suit the pace scenario.
Secondary Choices:
The Boondocker at 6-1 offers solid value for Thomas Morley with Jaime Rodriguez riding. The three-year-old has shown improvement in recent turf tries.
Mission Hill and I Can See That both merit respect based on recent form and connections.
Pace Analysis: With 16 runners, expect a strong pace with multiple horses showing early interest. The rail setting at 9 feet could favor inside runners if the course is firm.
Wagering Strategy: Real Savvy to win and place with trifecta combinations including Landman Friday, Gotta Guy, and The Boondocker.
Race 5 – $70,000 Maiden Optional Claiming, 6 Furlongs Turf (3:16 PM)
Race 5 represents one of the most intriguing contests on Wednesday’s card, featuring a competitive field of 16 two-year-old fillies making their turf debuts or seeking their first victory. The outer turf course with a 36-foot rail setting provides ample room for tactical maneuvering, which should benefit the more experienced connections.
Key Contenders
Always Ready (Post 9, 119 lbs, Flavien Prat, Todd Pletcher)
Always Ready emerges as the most compelling choice based on connections alone. The Repole Stable colorbearer represents the potent combination of owner Mike Repole and Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, who have dominated two-year-old turf racing throughout 2025. Pletcher and Repole recently swept major juvenile turf stakes at Saratoga with Time to Dream in the P.G. Johnson Stakes and Final Score in the With Anticipation Stakes, both by impressive margins.
Pletcher’s success with Not This Time progeny on turf has been remarkable, with the sire producing versatile runners who excel on both surfaces. The presence of Flavien Prat in the irons adds significant credibility, as the champion jockey rarely takes questionable mounts, particularly for debut runners in this caliber of race.
Princess Andi (Post 10, 119 lbs, Manuel Franco, Chad Brown)
Princess Andi brings the formidable Chad Brown stable into play with Manuel Franco riding. Brown tied for the leading trainer title at Saratoga with 32 wins and has won eight overall training titles at the Spa. His two-year-old turf program is particularly strong, with debut runners consistently outperforming expectations.
Brown’s juvenile debuts on turf merit serious respect, as evidenced by recent successes including Capital Partner’s victory in maiden company at Saratoga. The trainer’s methodical approach to developing young horses on grass often results in immediate success when they reach the races.
Bashful Baby (Post 7, 119 lbs, Joel Rosario, Miguel Clement)
Bashful Baby represents one of racing’s most compelling stories in trainer Miguel Clement, who has masterfully continued his late father Christophe’s success. The younger Clement posted 18 victories during the demanding Saratoga meet, finishing fourth in trainer standings ahead of Hall of Famers Bill Mott and Steve Asmussen.
Miguel Clement’s six turf graded stakes victories at Saratoga, including Grade 1 success with Deterministic, demonstrate his exceptional ability with grass horses. Joel Rosario’s presence suggests stable confidence, as the veteran jockey has been effective for the Clement operation throughout their successful 2025 campaign.
Secondary Choices
Marajoline (Post 8, 119 lbs, Javier Castellano, Gregory Sacco)
The daughter of American Pharoah brings solid breeding for turf racing and gets the services of Javier Castellano, whose tactical riding could prove effective in a large field. Gregory Sacco’s horses often show improvement when switching to grass surfaces.
South Philly Slide (Post 11, 119 lbs, Ricardo Santana Jr., Amelia Green)
Trained by Amelia Green with Ricardo Santana Jr. aboard, this filly could benefit from the wide post position and patient tactics. Green’s horses typically show up ready for their debut attempts.
Copper Caduceus (Post 12, 119 lbs, José Lezcano, Thomas Morley)
Thomas Morley has been effective with juvenile turf runners, and Lezcano’s aggressive style could suit the pace scenario if early speed develops.
Longshots with Appeal
Black Rose (Post 13, 119 lbs, Dylan Davis, Mark Casse)
Mark Casse brings proven success with two-year-old fillies, and the daughter of Nyquist has breeding that suggests turf ability. At likely longer odds, she represents exotic value.
Greyjoy (Post 4, 119 lbs, Luis Rivera Jr., John Terranova)
The daughter of American Pharoah gets an experienced rider in Rivera Jr., who knows the track conditions well. Terranova’s horses often improve dramatically second time out.
Pace Analysis
The 36-foot rail setting and six-furlong distance should produce moderate early fractions, allowing tactical speed horses to position themselves favorably. Expect Honor the Numbers and Avery’s Wonderland to show early interest, potentially setting up the race for closers with superior class.
The outer turf course typically plays fairly, though horses with tactical speed who can position within striking distance of the leaders often have advantages in large fields. The wide rail provides multiple paths for late runners, which should benefit horses like Always Ready and Princess Andi who figure to be ridden with patience.
Key Angles and Insights
Connections Angle: The Repole/Pletcher combination with Always Ready represents the strongest ownership and training partnership in the field. Their recent dominance in juvenile turf stakes suggests this filly has been specifically targeted for success.
Debut Specialist: Chad Brown’s success rate with debut runners on turf makes Princess Andi particularly dangerous. Brown’s methodical training approach often produces immediate results when horses reach the races.
Emotional Factor: Miguel Clement’s remarkable success following his father’s passing adds an intangible element to Bashful Baby. The stable’s six graded stakes victories at Saratoga demonstrate their current hot streak.
Track Conditions Impact
Morning showers are expected to clear by race time, with the turf course likely playing firm to good. The 36-foot rail setting indicates track management expects good conditions, which should favor horses with tactical speed over pure closers.
Wagering Strategy
Win Bet: Always Ready at expected odds of 5-2 to 3-1 offers solid value given the Repole/Pletcher/Prat combination and their recent turf success.
Exacta Strategy: Key Always Ready on top with Princess Andi, Bashful Baby, and Marajoline underneath. Also consider reversing the top two choices.
Trifecta Play: Use Always Ready and Princess Andi in the top two spots with Bashful Baby, Marajoline, South Philly Slide, and Black Rose filling out the bottom.
Longshot Special: Black Rose at 15-1 or higher represents excellent value in exotic wagers if Mark Casse has this daughter of Nyquist ready for a peak effort.
Daily Double: Race 4-5 combination using Real Savvy and Landman Friday with Always Ready and Princess Andi.
Race 6 – $41,000 Claiming, 6½ Furlongs Dirt (3:47 PM)
Key Contenders:
Speed of Sound gets surprising value at 8-1 from Racing Dudes with Luis Rivera Jr. for Chad Summers. The three-year-old filly has shown early speed and could wire this field if allowed to set comfortable fractions.
Itwillbefun brings Richard Dutrow Jr.’s stable with Flavien Prat riding. The three-year-old filly shows tactical speed and Prat’s presence suggests significant improvement expected.
Secondary Choices:
Helen’s Revenge represents Linda Rice with José Lezcano aboard. The three-year-old has been competitive at this level recently.
Take Me to Londyn brings Brad Cox’s powerful stable into play with Jaime Rodriguez riding. Cox’s horses often show dramatic improvement when switching surfaces or distances.
Longshots to Consider:
Margaux Treasure with Katie Davis could provide exotic value for Barclay Tagg. The four-year-old mare has shown flashes of ability.
Pace Analysis: Look for Speed of Sound and Blenheim Baby to show early speed, potentially setting up a pace scenario favoring closers.
Wagering Strategy: Speed of Sound to win at generous odds with exacta combinations including Itwillbefun and Helen’s Revenge.
Race 7 – $65,000 Starter Optional Claiming, 1 Mile Turf (4:18 PM)
Race 7 presents the most competitive betting race on Wednesday’s card, featuring a full field of 16 runners in a starter optional claiming event with a $40,000 claiming price. The 9-foot rail setting and one-mile distance on turf should produce tactical racing with multiple viable winners.
Key Contenders
Right to Win (IRE) (Post 8, 124 lbs, Manuel Franco, Chad Brown)
Right to Win emerges as the most compelling choice despite opening at 7-2 morning line odds. The Irish-bred five-year-old represents the powerful combination of Hall of Fame trainer Chad Brown and champion jockey Manuel Franco, owned by the prominent Klaravich Stables.
The gelding’s recent victory at Saratoga with Franco aboard demonstrates his current form, winning at 11-4 odds in similar company. Brown’s success rate with turf horses dropping in class is exceptional, and the trainer’s decision to run this horse in a starter optional claiming event suggests significant confidence. Franco’s presence is particularly meaningful, as the champion jockey rarely takes questionable mounts for Brown, especially in lower-level races.
The Klaravich ownership adds credibility, as this partnership with Brown has produced numerous graded stakes winners and consistently targets horses in winnable spots.
House United (Post 14, 124 lbs, Manuel Franco, Rob Atras)
House United leads the morning line at 9/5 and brings intriguing connections with Rob Atras training and Manuel Franco riding. The four-year-old gelding has been competitive in similar starter optional claiming events and showed recent form with a rating of 97.
However, Franco’s choice between Right to Win and House United creates uncertainty, as champion jockeys typically select their strongest mount when given options. The morning line favoritism suggests public confidence, but the class drop from Brown’s barn may represent superior value.
Mr Flowers (Post 13, 124 lbs, Jaime Rodriguez, Jamie Ness)
Mr Flowers at 5-2 morning line odds represents one of racing’s hottest trainer-jockey combinations. Jamie Ness just completed his 11th consecutive training title at Delaware Park with a remarkable 36% win rate from 200 starts. Jaime Rodriguez captured his fifth straight riding title at Delaware Park with 75 wins from 317 mounts and a 24% win rate.
The Rodriguez-Ness partnership dominated at Delaware Park throughout 2025, demonstrating exceptional teamwork and consistency. Ness’s horses often show improvement when shifting to New York tracks, and Rodriguez has since moved his tack to New York for the winter.
Ranger Battalion (Post 15, 120 lbs, José Lezcano, Linda Rice)
Ranger Battalion opens at 2/1 and represents Linda Rice’s stable with José Lezcano riding. The three-year-old colt has been competitive in recent starter optional claiming events and gets the benefit of the three-year-old weight allowance, carrying 120 pounds versus 124 for older horses.
Rice’s success in these types of races and Lezcano’s tactical riding ability make this combination dangerous, particularly if the pace develops favorably for closers.
Secondary Choices
Gene and Jude (Post 2, 120 lbs, Joel Rosario, Michael Maker)
The Michael Maker trainee brings solid form, including a third-place finish in a recent starter optional claiming race at Saratoga. Maker’s success with turf horses and Rosario’s tactical riding make this a live exotic play at 4-1 morning line odds.
Storm the Streets (Post 7, 120 lbs, Flavien Prat, Richard Dutrow Jr.)
The three-year-old son of Street Boss represents Richard Dutrow Jr. with Flavien Prat aboard. The combination of Prat’s tactical brilliance and Dutrow’s ability to have horses ready for peak efforts makes this a dangerous longshot at 5-1.
Outtawaterbury (Post 5, 124 lbs, John Velazquez, David Donk)
John Velazquez’s presence at 12-1 morning line odds suggests this four-year-old could be sitting on a significant effort. Velazquez rarely takes questionable mounts, making this an intriguing exotic play.
Longshots with Appeal
Final Denile (Post 4, 124 lbs, Ricardo Santana Jr., Horacio De Paz)
The four-year-old gelding offers value at 8-1 with Ricardo Santana Jr. riding. If he recaptures his best form, he could provide significant exotic value.
Bay of Bengal (Post 12, 120 lbs, Jaime Rodriguez, H. Graham Motion)
Graham Motion’s three-year-old represents quality connections at 6-1 odds. Motion’s horses often improve when switching surfaces or conditions.
Pace Analysis
The 9-foot rail setting and full field of 16 should produce honest early fractions. Expect Mythical Man, Gem Mint Ten, and Hedge the Risk to show early interest, potentially setting up the race for closers with tactical speed like Right to Win and House United.
The mile distance allows for tactical positioning, favoring horses that can settle early and make sustained moves in the stretch. Franco’s presence on Right to Win suggests Brown expects this horse to benefit from patient tactics.
Key Angles and Insights
Class Dropping Angle: Right to Win dropping from higher-level competition for Chad Brown represents the strongest class relief in the field.
Hot Connections: The Rodriguez-Ness combination with Mr Flowers brings the hottest trainer-jockey partnership from Delaware Park’s recently concluded meet.
Jockey Switch Significance: Manuel Franco’s choice of Right to Win over House United suggests the Brown-trained horse is the stronger play.
Three-Year-Old Weight Advantage: Gene and Jude, Storm the Streets, Bay of Bengal, and Ranger Battalion all benefit from carrying 120 pounds versus 124 for older horses.
Track Conditions Impact
Morning showers clearing by race time should leave the turf course firm to good. The 9-foot rail provides tactical options while maintaining fair racing conditions for all running styles.
Wagering Strategy
Win Bet: Right to Win at 7-2 offers solid value given Brown’s class relief angle and Franco’s presence.
Exacta Strategy: Key Right to Win on top with Mr Flowers, House United, and Ranger Battalion underneath. Also consider Mr Flowers on top with Right to Win for the hot Rodriguez-Ness combination.
Trifecta Play: Use Right to Win and Mr Flowers in the top two positions with House United, Ranger Battalion, Gene and Jude, and Storm the Streets completing the bottom.
Superfecta Coverage: Include Outtawaterbury and Final Denile in deeper exotic plays given their capable connections at generous odds.
Daily Double: Race 7-8 combination using Right to Win and Mr Flowers with Princess Summer and Charmeuse from Race 8.
Value Play: Storm the Streets at 5-1 with Flavien Prat represents excellent value if Dutrow has this three-year-old ready for a peak effort.
Race 8 – $48,000 Maiden Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles Turf (4:50 PM)
Key Contenders:
Princess Summer leads Racing Dudes selections at 5-2 with Flavien Prat for Michael Maker. The four-year-old mare has been competitive in similar spots and the added distance should benefit her late-running style.
Charmeuse brings John Velazquez and David Donk’s combination. The three-year-old filly has shown promise in previous turf tries and Velazquez’s presence is encouraging.
Secondary Choices:
Just One More offers value with Ricardo Santana Jr. riding. The four-year-old mare has been knocking on the door recently.
Sky Low Low represents Christopher Elliott’s barn with improving form on the grass.
Pace Analysis: Expect moderate pace with several fillies likely to show early interest. The 36-foot rail provides ample room for late runners to find their best stride.
Wagering Strategy: Princess Summer to win with exacta combinations using Charmeuse, Just One More, and Sky Low Low.
Jockey Notes and Insights
Flavien Prat has multiple live mounts throughout the card and his presence on Apalta, Itwillbefun, Storm the Streets, and Princess Summer suggests these horses merit serious consideration. Prat’s tactical riding style should be well-suited to potentially softening track conditions.
Joel Rosario rides Real Savvy and Bashful Baby for Miguel Clement, suggesting the trainer has high confidence in both runners. Rosario’s aggressive style could prove effective if pace scenarios develop favorably.
Manuel Franco has live chances on Right to Win for Chad Brown, indicating the Hall of Fame trainer expects significant improvement from the Irish-bred.
Luis Rivera Jr. rides Confabulation and Speed of Sound, both offering value at their respective morning line odds.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Todd Pletcher sends out Apalta in Race 2, and his maiden winners often improve dramatically in subsequent starts. Pletcher’s two-year-old program with Always Ready in Race 5 also merits respect.
Chad Brown has multiple chances throughout the card with Extrasensory, Princess Andi, and Right to Win. Brown’s grass horses are particularly dangerous when dropping in class or switching distances.
Miguel Clement doubles up with Real Savvy and Bashful Baby, both getting Joel Rosario rides, indicating strong stable confidence.
Richard Dutrow Jr. sends out multiple runners including Backtrack, Itwillbefun, and Storm the Streets. Dutrow’s horses often show improvement off layoffs and when switching surfaces.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
Best Bets:
- Confabulation (Race 1) at 7-2 offers solid value as the Racing Dudes selection
- Speed of Sound (Race 6) at 8-1 provides excellent value in a competitive claiming race
- Right to Win (Race 7) at 7-2 for Chad Brown represents class dropping in a starter optional claiming event
Daily Double Opportunities:
- Race 1-2: Confabulation with Apalta
- Race 7-8: Right to Win with Princess Summer
Pick 3 Strategy:
Races 2-3-4: Apalta / Smilensaycheese / Real Savvy, Landman Friday, Gotta Guy
Pick 4 Coverage:
Races 5-6-7-8: Bashful Baby, Always Ready / Speed of Sound, Itwillbefun / Right to Win, Storm the Streets / Princess Summer, Charmeuse
Value Plays:
Several longer-priced horses offer wagering value including First of His Name (Race 1), The Boondocker (Race 4), and Final Denale (Race 7) in exotic wagers where small investments can yield significant returns if track conditions or pace scenarios develop favorably.
